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Price Forecast Oil, Gas & Chemicals March 31, 2021 This Page Has Been Intentionally Left Blank Price forecast Oil, gas & chemicals March 31, 2021 This page has been intentionally left blank 2 Forecast commentary 2 M&A momentum builds 8 Canadian domestic price forecast 10 International price forecast 12 Global trends 13 Canadian domestic price tables 15 International price tables 18 Price philosophy 20 1 Price forecast | Forecast commentary Forecast commentary Crude oil rebounded as vaccines Towards the end of the quarter, futures for restarted global economies WTI and Brent were already showing signs of Oil prices surged in the first quarter of weakness as renewed lockdown concerns in 2021 as oil demand began to rebound, Europe plagued demand. reflecting the optimism of continuous rollouts of the COVID-19 vaccine and improved Although the global crude stock withdrawals global economic activity. In March, OPEC+ represent good news for the sector, storage members announced they would maintain volumes in the United States have been production cuts through April, which increasing alongside price, indicating a resulted in benchmark Brent and West Texas misalignment with price and supply and Intermediate (WTI) prices rising 22% and 24% demand fundamentals. We do not expect respectively from December 2020 values. this will last in the long term, with a market The OPEC+ production curtailments, coupled correction likely to come. with slower-than-expected supply growth in the United States, led to global inventory Winter storms and record-low temperatures withdrawals of 3.7 MMbbl/d in February. in Texas crippled the sector, with production These were the highest volumes since 2002, halted because wellheads froze and refinery indicating global demand outpaced depressed utilization levels dropped to 56%. Several supply levels in Q1 2021. As the sector works major refineries along the US Gulf Coast to stabilize supply and demand curves, crude were shut in due to the storm and frozen oil prices are expected to drop in the coming equipment forced operators to phase restart months as supply returns to the market. efforts, which caused slow ramp-ups. The low US crude oil and product stocks with refining disruptions 600,000 100 90 500,000 80 70 400,000 60 300,000 50 40 nery utilization(%) nery 200,000 fi Stock(Mbbl) olumes 30 Re 20 100,000 10 0 0 J-1 J-1 J-1 J-20 D-18 F1 M1 A1 M1 A1 S1 O1 N1 D-1 F20 Refinery utilization Crude oil stocks Gasoline stocks Source: United States Energy Information Administration. 2 Price forecast | Forecast commentary refinery utilization rates led to US crude stocks expected to increase as producers tackle swelling by 21.6 MMbbl, the largest weekly their development plans, but production is increase in US history. While crude oil stocks not expected to return as quickly as originally increased, refined product stocks decreased thought, especially in the Permian basin. to below the five-year minimum since gasoline US companies have stated they plan to production capacity was limited. maintain supply rates and maximize cash flow to pay down debt. This reflects a change Strong prices at the beginning of 2021 were in philosophy from previous years, when expected to stimulate US activity and lead to US shale players were focused on drilling for production increases, primarily in the Permian growth with less than optimal return on the basin. Recent data shows the number of capital deployed. drilled and uncompleted wells has decreased and rig count activity has increased over Canadian producers have fared well in the first few months of the year. However, Q1 2021, with implied differentials to WTI despite some increase to activity levels, remaining favourable and prices returning US production has stayed relatively flat as to pre-pandemic values. Production levels in volumes brought on-stream offset existing Alberta have rebounded at the same time to production declines. In addition, the weather volumes last seen before COVID-19 struck, events in Texas delayed some planned as producers accelerated their winter drilling operations and forced production levels to activity to take advantage of higher prices. dip even further in mid-February. Supply is Alberta production levels 4.0 90.00 3.5 80.00 70.00 3.0 60.00 2.5 50.00 2.0 40.00 1.5 (C$/bbl) Price 30.00 1.0 Production levels (MMbbl/d) levels Production 20.00 0.5 10.00 0.0 0.00 J-21 J-20 J-20 J-20 J-19 J-19 J-19 F-20 F-19 S-20 S-19 A-20 A-20 A-19 A-19 D-20 D-19 N-20 N-19 O-20 O-19 M-20 M-20 M-19 M-19 Bitumen Synthetic Conventional Condensate Canadian light sweet WCS price Source: Alberta Energy Regulator, Flint, Natural Resources Canada, Oil Sand Magazine. 3 Price forecast | Forecast commentary Oil production in Alberta reached 116 MMbbl caused Western Canadian Select (WCS) price in January 2021, a 3.6% increase from January differentials to start widening in Q1 2021. 2020 levels. Oilsands production represented the largest volume increases that month, The current oil price rally does not with mined volumes contributing 47% of seem sustainable with OPEC+ having a total production. significant amount of production still offline. It seems more plausible that the members will Canadian light oil producers were supported agree to increase production in the coming by high WTI prices and narrow differentials in months, which would push down prices below March, as Canadian light hit its highest value US$60/bbl, rather than allow US companies to since August 2018. Increased oilsands supply substantially recover market share and spend coming onstream in late 2020 and early 2021 more on development. Canadian oil price differentials 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 erential (USD/bbl)erential ff 20.00 15.00 Price Di Price 10.00 5.00 0.00 1/1/20183/1/20185/1/2018/1/2018/1/2018 1/1/2013/1/2015/1/201/1/201/1/201 1/1/20203/1/20205/1/2020/1/2020/1/2020 1/1/2021 11/1/2018 11/1/201 11/1/2020 WCS - WTI Edm - WTI Source: Daily Oil Bulletin. 4 Price forecast | Forecast commentary Natural gas prices surged as cold weather severe weather and lower natural gas supply. hit North America It’s likely that natural gas producers will mostly US natural gas storage levels trended below maintain the current supply rather than seek the five-year withdrawal season average as to grow substantially; if LNG export demand domestic demand surged in February due to continues to grow as expected, prices will cold weather across the country and winter steadily increase for the remainder of 2021. storms caused production to decrease by This may spur renewed activity later in 21 Bcf/d. In Texas, well freeze-offs decreased the year. production by 10 Bcf/d, as associated gas from the Permian basin was shut in for certain In Canada, natural gas production has fields. The rise in demand and drop in supply remained stagnant as producers aim to caused Henry Hub prices to spike in February. maintain current production levels and boost cash flows, a state that’s expected The United States mitigated its short-term for the rest of the year. Similar to the United supply issues by importing additional volumes States, prices surged in February in response from Western Canadian producers, leading to cold weather across the country and to further AECO price increases beyond our increased demand from south of the border. own cold-weather prices. US production has AECO prices are expected to remain relatively resumed in recent weeks, and data shows flat for the spring as companies wrap up supply volumes are relatively flat from Q4 a successful winter drilling season. Gas 2020 values. storage levels in Western Canada are below the five-year average, which will support prices US liquid natural gas (LNG) exports continue as we head into the gas injection season. Since to grow, averaging 9.8 Bcf/d in January 2021, Canadian producers are aiming to maintain while Japanese LNG prices spiked in Q1 2021 production levels throughout the year, to approximately US$18/mmbtu. February storage levels are not expected to be outside shipments were affected by the winter storms the norm. in Texas as Gulf Coast ports dealt with the US natural gas working net storage changes 200 100 0 -100 -200 Volumes net changes (Bcf) changes Volumesnet -300 -400 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Source: EIA. 5 Price forecast | Forecast commentary Canadian oil export capacity without export and crude-by-rail volumes observed Keystone XL over the last several years, we estimate that With the recent revocation of the Keystone a consistently achievable take-away capacity XL cross-border permit, the capacity for is approximately 3.6 million barrels per day. growth in Western Canadian oil production With the expected completion of the Line 3 has been thrown into doubt. Pipeline export and Trans Mountain expansion projects over capacity has reached its limits in recent years, the next couple of years, total export capacity as evidenced by the increased reliance on is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels shipping crude by rail. Rail export volumes per day. grew from less than 100,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 300,000 by the end of Any Western Canadian production growth 2019. At its peak in February 2020, just over in the coming year above the peak in early 400,000 barrels were being exported every 2020, therefore, will need to be exported by day by rail to the United States.
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