Las Vegas Casino and Hotel Market Outlook 2012
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JANUARY 2012 LAS VEGAS CASINO AND HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK 2012 Shannon Okada Associate Director www.hvs.com HVS Gaming Division 8170 W Sahara Avenue, Suite 201, Las Vegas, NV 89117 USA Las Vegas Casino and Hotel: Market Outlook 2012 Visitor volume is the single-largest determinant of Southern Nevada's economic health, driving hotel occupancy, average daily room rates, and gaming revenue. All experienced modest increases in 2011 and are expected to continue to improve in 2012. Las Vegas1 has continued its rebound that began in 2010. Gross gaming revenue for Clark County increased 3.3% in the year-to-date period through November 2011 compared to the same period in 2010. Room occupancy and average daily rates (ADR) were also up from the depressed levels of recent years. With increasing revenues, profit margins for casino-resorts are expected to benefit from the efficiencies implemented during the downturn. With the national and local economies recovering, and discretionary spending slowly rising, the outlook for the Las Vegas market in 2012 is positive, followed by stronger results in 2013. VISITATION Visitor volume is the single-largest determinant of Las Vegas' economic health. Visitors drive hotel occupancy, average daily room rates, and gaming revenue. Overall, 2011 was good for Las Vegas tourism. In 2010, visitor volume grew for the first time since 2007. Year-to-date data through November 2011 indicate that annual visitor volume also grew year-over-year. Year-to-date through November 2011, 36.0 million people visited Las Vegas, up 4.4% from the 34.5 million recorded during the same period in 2010. Table 1 depicts the number of visitors to Las Vegas from 2000 through the year-to-date period ending November 2011 based on data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA).2 TABLE 1- LAS VEGAS VISITORS- 2000 TO NOVEMBER 2011 Year Total Visitors % Change 2000 35,849,691 27.1 2001 35,017,317 (2.3) 2002 35,071,504 0.2 2003 35,540,126 1.3 2004 37,388,781 5.2 2005 38,566,717 3.2 2006 38,914,889 0.9 2007 39,196,761 0.7 2008 37,481,552 (4.4) 2009 36,351,469 (3.0) 2010 37,335,436 2.7 Year-to-date November: 2010 34,450,600 --- 2011 35,971,217 4.4 % Average Annual Compounded Change, 2000-2010: 0.4 % Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority 1 Las Vegas, including the Las Vegas Strip, is located in Clark County, Nevada. 2 Note that Las Vegas visitor data subsequent to November 2011 were not available as of the date this article was written. LAS VEGAS CASINO AND HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK 2012 | PAGE 2 A review of the monthly visitation data indicates that the number of visitors year-over-year began to grow on a monthly basis again during the last four months of 2009. As of November 2011, the LVCVA reported 21 consecutive months of gains in prior-year comparisons. TABLE 2 - LAS VEGAS VISITORS BY MONTH – 2006 TO NOVEMBER 2011 2006 2007 Percent 2008 Percent 2009 Percent 2010 Percent 2011 Percent Month Visitors Visitors Change Visitors Change Visitors Change Visitors Change Visitors Change January 3,175,528 3,156,419 (0.6) % 3,138,312 (0.6) % 2,765,916 (11.9) % 2,877,716 4.0 % 3,126,364 8.6 % February 2,977,418 3,015,850 1.3 3,107,997 3.1 2,858,545 (8.0) 2,856,456 (0.1) 2,884,587 1.0 March 3,408,421 3,456,738 1.4 3,423,765 (1.0) 3,202,344 (6.5) 3,224,697 0.7 3,406,385 5.6 April 3,301,734 3,314,448 0.4 3,265,251 (1.5) 3,171,043 (2.9) 3,199,541 0.9 3,354,283 4.8 May 3,341,156 3,380,791 1.2 3,395,991 0.4 3,199,719 (5.8) 3,262,831 2.0 3,369,262 3.3 June 3,157,228 3,282,315 4.0 3,179,472 (3.1) 2,980,122 (6.3) 3,106,965 4.3 3,324,290 7.0 July 3,369,877 3,378,193 0.2 3,222,456 (4.6) 3,181,139 (1.3) 3,330,658 4.7 3,472,861 4.3 August 3,341,005 3,353,997 0.4 3,211,209 (4.3) 3,092,403 (3.7) 3,201,662 3.5 3,290,473 2.8 September 3,278,884 3,268,125 (0.3) 2,936,499 (10.1) 3,062,340 4.3 3,123,549 2.0 3,294,117 5.5 October 3,384,978 3,384,546 (0.0) 3,039,272 (10.2) 3,153,159 3.7 3,332,628 5.7 3,422,074 2.7 November 3,124,369 3,129,508 0.2 2,821,629 (9.8) 2,904,091 2.9 2,933,897 1.0 3,026,521 3.2 December 3,054,291 3,075,831 0.7 2,739,699 (10.9) 2,780,648 1.5 2,884,836 3.7 Total 38,914,889 39,196,761 0.7 % 37,481,552 (4.4) % 36,351,469 (3.0) % 37,335,436 2.7 % YTD November Total: 35,860,598 36,120,930 0.7 % 34,741,853 (3.8) % 33,570,821 (3.4) % 34,450,600 2.6 % 35,971,217 4.4 % Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority Just over 3.0 million people came to Las Vegas in November 2011, a 3.2% gain from the 2.9 million recorded in November 2010. Growth in visitation in the year-to-date period bodes well for the Las Vegas market. Monthly visitor totals in April, June, July, September, and October all exceeded prior monthly totals in the 2006 and 2007 boom years and 2011 is expected to be hailed as a record year in terms of visitation once year-end statistics are released by the LVCVA. CHART 1 - LAS VEGAS MONTHLY VISITATION – 2006 TO NOVEMBER 2011 LAS VEGAS MONTHLY VISITATION (2006 - November 2011) 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2006 Visitors 2007 2,600,000 2008 2009 2,400,000 2010 2011 2,200,000 2,000,000 Month LAS VEGAS CASINO AND HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK 2012 | PAGE 3 MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT McCarran International Airport continues with improvements to increase capacity and patron comfort. The airport’s $13 million interior renovation of C Concourse will include new ceiling panels and lighting; more- energy-efficient window tinting, and heating and air-conditioning systems; revised directional signage; new carpeting and wall panels; refurbished jet bridges; and upgraded restroom fixtures. The renovation will also eliminate one gating area in favor of a new Asian restaurant concept and a retail outlet. These interior improvements are expected to be completed by the end of 2012. Additionally, the airport’s $2.4 billion, 14-gate Terminal 3 project is planned to be completed in the middle of 2013. When Terminal 3 opens it will allow for increased air service from domestic and international markets that cannot be accommodated under the airport’s current configuration. Cutbacks by airlines serving McCarran International Airport because of declining consumer demand beginning in September 2008 resulted in a reduced number of incoming and outgoing seats per day, contributing to the declining passenger totals in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The reduction in airline capacity is a critical issue for Las Vegas as the majority of its visitors arrive by air. American Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2011 and may reduce flights. Airlines are not expected to add flights into Las Vegas until warranted by increased demand from consumers and current flights sell out on a regular basis. Several international carriers continue to build their presence, however, including WestJet, Aero Mexico, Mexico's Volaris, British Airways, and Virgin Atlantic. Statistics for McCarran International Airport from 2000 through November 2011 are set forth in Table 3. TABLE 3 - MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STATISTICS (2000 TO NOVEMBER 2011) McCarran International Airport Passenger Percent Percent Year Traffic Change* Change** 2000 36,865,893 — — 2001 35,180,960 (4.6) (4.6) 2002 35,009,011 (0.5) (2.6) 2003 36,265,932 3.6 (0.5) 2004 41,441,531 14.3 3.0 2005 44,267,362 6.8 3.7 2006 46,304,376 4.6 3.9 2007 47,729,414 3.1 3.8 2008 44,074,707 (7.7) 2.3 2009 40,469,012 (8.2) 1.0 2010 39,757,359 (1.8) 0.8 Year-to-Date through November: 2010 36,673,683 — — 2011 38,275,798 4.4 % — *Average annual compounded change from the previous year **Average annual compounded change from 2000 Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority LAS VEGAS CASINO AND HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK 2012 | PAGE 4 Year-to-date data through November 2011 indicate that passenger counts at McCarran International Airport increased 4.4% over the same period in 2010. The airport reported growth each month in 2011 compared to 2010, with its highest monthly passenger count of 2011 in October at 3.7 million passengers. CONVENTION ACTIVITY A significant demand generator of midweek occupancy is visitors who attend conventions, conferences, and other meeting and group activities. Any decline in the number of convention attendees does not bode well for the market. The number of convention attendees began declining on an annual basis since 2006, with the most significant decline in 2009.