Insight and Intelligence Team

Key Findings this Month

These Statistics are for a month period from early June 2021 to early August 2021, therefore the 17th month impact of the COVID-19 lockdown/re-opening/public health policy is within this report.

Unemployment The unemployment rate stands at 8.7%, a fall of 2.2% in the last month.

As of August 2021, there were 12,730 claimants in Oldham (6030 claimants more than in Jan 2020 due to the COVID-19 economic shock). While Oldham continues to have the highest claimant rate in GM, and higher than the England average, there is now an encouraging pattern of decrease.

Note that unlike other GM boroughs, a proportion of new claimants has been in JSA claimants rather than UC. We believe this is because Oldham JCP has been more forward in implementing “new style” JSA, which can be available to a wider range of people than UC. This might be positive, if it means that less people fall through the safety net, and might explain some of the difference in performance during Covid between Oldham and comparable LAs such as Rochdale. However, at the same time it appears that JSA claimants do not benefit from the £20 Covid uplift payment.

Youth Unemployment Youth unemployment in Oldham has decreased this month by 4.0%, with 2625 young people (aged 18-24) in Oldham claiming. This represents a youth unemployment rate of 13.2%, the highest rate across Greater Manchester and higher than the national rate of 6.9%.

As with all-age unemployment, rates remain high across GM. However, we are seeing consistent month-on-month falls. There are still some areas over 30%, a level which has been associated with civil disturbances in other areas in the past. This month, there is an unusual clustering of the worst performing areas, concentrated immediately North and South of the town centre.

Sanctions New data is shown this month. As of April 2020, the government temporarily stopped issuing benefit sanctions. However existing sanctions were not withdrawn and small numbers remain sanctioned. Sanctions have now restarted, and a small rise can be seen- however, there may be more clarity as to the direction of travel when the next quarters data is released.

NEETs Current NEET rate is 3.4%, which appears relatively stable and not greatly impacted by Covid. No new data this month at time of publication.

The COVID-19 economic shock has caused an unprecedented increase in claimants since March 2020. In the inset can be seen the previous peak cause d by the 2008 recession, for comparison purposes. Note the increase in JSA claimants during Covid- this seems to be “New Style” JSA, which appears to be being implemented in Oldham faster or more often than in other LAs. We can now see a definite downwards trend, which is a very encouraging development.

Regional Unemployment Statistics (aged 16-64): Aug 2021

% Monthly % Annual Local Authority Unemployed % Unemployed change change Bolton 13,120 7.4 -1.0 -13.4 Bury 6,905 5.9 -2.2 -17.3 Manchester 30,500 7.8 -1.3 -12.3 Oldham 12,730 8.7 -2.2 -7.8 Rochdale 10,565 7.6 -0.2 -11.3 Salford 12,250 7.1 -1.4 -14.0 Stockport 8,585 4.8 -1.8 -20.0 Tameside 9,240 6.5 -2.0 -18.5 Trafford 6,225 4.3 -2.2 -20.8 Wigan 11,110 5.4 -1.9 -22.8 GM 121,225 6.7 -1.5 -15.0 England 1,874,550 5.3 -2.1 -17.9

The unemployment rate in Oldham currently stands at 8.7%, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous month, and remains the highest figure in GM and higher than the England rate of 5.3%. This is an improved trajectory, with the strongest decrease in GM and a faster decrease than for England as a whole. If we assume that we continue to improve by about 300 claimants per month, we might expect to return to pre-Covid levels by around Spring 2023. However, it is likely that the shape of decrease will be more of a bell curve, implying that a longer time period might be necessary.

While there are only small changes month-on-month (Shaw having the greatest decrease, with rises in Chadderton North, Failsworth East and Crompton), the changing impact of Covid can be seen compared to a year before, particularly in the resilience and recovery of more affluent wards.

This map shows the extent to which unemployment has had a major impact on many areas across Oldham. While rates are now falling overall, there are still substantial issues, and the highest rates are becoming geographically concentrated. Eldon St Estate is still far more challenged than other areas, and two adjacent areas, Primrose Bank and Lower Hathershaw, are now also in the 5 most impacted. Such concentrations are unusual.

The map above shows that since the beginning of COVID-19 the usual areas of highest unemployment from previous months have seen the largest increases in unemployment. Parts of Hathershaw and Coldhurst have been particularly impacted.

Youth Unemployment (aged 18-24): Aug 2021

% Youth % Monthly % Annual Local Authority Youth Unemployed Unemployed change change Bolton 2,370 10.6 -2.7 -21.1 Bury 1,355 10.0 -5.6 -19.6 Manchester 5,500 6.4 -2.1 -20.6 Oldham 2,625 13.2 -4.0 -13.9 Rochdale 1,970 11.3 -0.3 -17.7 Salford 2,110 7.8 -2.5 -24.1 Stockport 1,595 8.5 -2.4 -20.8 Tameside 1,730 10.3 -3.1 -26.8 Trafford 1,135 7.5 -3.0 -26.5 Wigan 2,040 8.6 -3.5 -28.0 GM 22,430 8.6 -2.8 -21.6 England 325,505 6.9 -3.5 -25.7

Youth unemployment in Oldham stands this month at 13.2%, a monthly decrease of -4.0%.

Oldham still has the highest youth unemployment rate in GM, and is significantly higher than the national rate of 6.9%. But, as with all-age claimants, this month sees larger falls than most of GM (excepting Bury) and England as a whole.

The encouraging falls of recent months have continued, which begins to reduce the inequalities currently faced by young people in the labour market. However, there is still a significant distance to go, with no expectation of a return to pre-covid levels before mid-2022 at earliest.

Youth Unemployment by Ward: Aug 2021

Hollinwood 21.2

St Mary's 16.9

Coldhurst 16.8

Alexandra 16.5

Medlock Vale 15.6

Werneth 15.4

Waterhead 14.9

Chadderton South 14.4

St James' 14.3

Oldham 13.2

Chadderton North 13.1

Chadderton Central 12.0

Crompton 11.1

Royton North 11.1

Failsworth West 11.1

Failsworth East 9.4 Above Oldham Average Shaw 9.2 Oldham Royton South 9.1

Saddleworth South 8.1 Below Oldham Average

Saddleworth West and Lees 7.2 Previous Month

Saddleworth North 4.8 Previous Year

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Unemployment Rate (%)

Welcome improvements in most wards this month, but notable Hollinwood worsens an already poor position. Shaw shows particularly large month- on-month decrease.

We are still seeing areas of Oldham with youth claimant rates of over 30%, which may be seen as at a level where over time there may be social fracturing. Eldon Street Estate has once again exceeded 30% this month. Fitton Hill has however improved, as have many parts of Royton North.

Covid impacts on youth unemployment are evident over much of inner Oldham, but also in more deprived parts of other areas. Higher values in Saddleworth should be taken with caution as denominators are small.

Universal Credit Sanction Rates: May 2021

UC Claimants eligible Number of UC Local Authority Sanction Rate (%) GM Rank for sanctions Sanctions (1 = highest) Bolton 12,840 18 0.1 2 Bury 7,135 6 0.1 8 Manchester 31,977 38 0.1 3 Oldham 13,205 15 0.1 6 Rochdale 10,554 11 0.1 7 Salford 12,468 7 0.1 10 Stockport 8,740 10 0.1 5 Tameside 9,453 19 0.2 1 Trafford 6,455 5 0.1 9 Wigan 11,188 13 0.1 4 GM 124,015 142 0.1 - England 1,943,552 3,261 0.2 -

As of April 2020, the government has stopped implementing new sanctions which can be seen with the low rates in the table above. Sanctions have now been restarted, but it is not yet possible to see the real impact of this in the figures above, although the start of an increase can be seen in May 2021 figures below.

16-19s Not in Education, Employment and Training (NEETs) in Oldham

NEET as % of cohort (Years 12 & 13) Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Q2 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Q3 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Q4 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Q1 Target Actual (Year 12 & 13) 3.7% 3.6% 1.7% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% Last Year’s Performance 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% Actual Numbers 230 220 215 209 Cohort Size 6,132 6,134 6,177 6,177 Numbers 12 months ago 236 233 229

Source: Positive Steps Oldham, June 2021 Report and previous

Figures appear stable at around 3.4%, with no obvious Covid impact. No reporting during summer break.