A Decision Making Framework for Cruise Ship Design JUL 14 2006

A Decision Making Framework for Cruise Ship Design by George P. Katsoufis B.S. Architectural Engineering and B.S. Civil Engineering University of Miami (FL), 2000 SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OCEAN SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT AND MASTER OF SCIENCE IN NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2006 C George P. Katsoufis. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of A uthor: . ................................ Department of Mechanical Engineering April 7, 2006 Certified by: .... .................................................. Dr. Clifford A. Whitcomb, Associate Professor of Systems Engineering Naval Post Graduate School Monterey, California Thesis Supervisor Certified by: ..... ---....-....-..... ....... ...... ............ Dr. Henry S. Marcus, Professor of Marine Systems Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: ......... ............................................. Professor Lallit Anand MASSACHUSETTS INSTI TUTEj Chairman, OF TECHNOLOGY Committee for Graduate Students JUL 14 2006 I 1ARKER LIBRARIES A Decision Making Framework on Cruise Ship Design by George P. Katsoufis Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering on April 7, 2006 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Ocean Systems Management and Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering ABSTRACT This thesis develops a new decision making framework for initial cruise ship design. Through review of effectiveness analysis and multi-criteria decision making, a uniform philosophy is created to articulate a framework that would enable a designer to more accurately assess what design alternatives are more important than others and how their changes affect the overall system being designed. Through a brief historical account, top-level Measures of Merit are developed and used with the framework and then applied to a requirements and effectiveness case study on initial concept development of a cruise ship. This is performed using Response Surface Methods to enable the user to visualize the design space as well as interact with it; the results and methods to visualize the design space are discussed. Finally, a Unified Tradeoff Environment is discussed, a framework that pools the aforementioned requirements and effectiveness analysis with design and technology forecasting to enable the user to make better informed requirements derivation and design selection. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Clifford A. Whitcomb Title: Associate Professor of Systems Engineering Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Henry S. Marcus Title: Professor of Marine Systems 3 Page Intentionally Left Blank 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis would not have been possible were it not for the support and assistance of Dr. Cliff Whitcomb and Dr. Hank Marcus. Dr. Whitcomb graciously took me under his wing when no one else was willing, introduced me to this area of research, and through his academic advice over the last four years to the completion of my thesis. Dr. Hank Marcus introduced me to a world only MIT has to offer; one that I believe will resonate in my life for many years after I leave this institution. His efforts and guidance were instrumental in my graduate studies, the completion of this work, and the direction I have chosen in my life. I owe special thanks to John Hootman, my friend and classmate, who was kind enough to allow me the use of his graduate work to lay down the foundation for my research for this thesis. Additional thanks also go out to my friends for their support, with special mention of Dr. Rick Rikoski (Jr.) who introduced me to his family when I had to return to Boston to complete my studies and had no where to stay. They were gracious enough to let me stay in their home, indefinitely, until this task was done. Final Thanks go to my parents, whose love, understanding, and never-ending support saw me through this. 5 Page Intentionally Left Blank 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................ 8 TABLE OFTABLES ......................................................................................................................................... 9 TABLE OF EQUATIONS...................................................................................................................................9 N OM ENCLATURE.........................................................................................................................................10 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1 1 PURPOSE .................................................................................................................................................. I SYSTEM S APPROACH ............................................................................................................................... 12 O VERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER 2: A BRIEF O VERVIEW OF THE CRUISE INDUSTRY ...................................................................... 15 A H ISTORY .............................................................................................................................................. 15 IF YOU BUILD IT, WILL THEY COME9 ......................................................... 17 IT's A LL DOLLARS AND SENSE ............................................................................................................... 20 BEING PULLED IN M ULTIPLE D IRECTIONS.......................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER 3: CRUISE SHIP SYSTEMS APPROACH INVESTIGATION AND DEVELOPMENT .......................... 29 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 29 SYSTEM S ENGINEERING FOR PRODUCT D EVELOPM ENT..................................................................... 32 TECHNICAL M EASUREM ENT AND MEASURES OF M ERIT ..................................................................... 34 MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................... 44 W EIGHTED SUM M ETHOD ....................................................................................................................... 45 H IERARCHICAL W EIGHTED SUM ......................................................................................................... 46 ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS ......................................................................................................... 47 MULTI-A TTRIBUTE U TILITY ANALYSIS..................................................................................................48 GENERAL M ETHOD CONSIDERATIONS................................................................................................ 48 PARETO O PTIM ALITY .............................................................................................................................. 51 TRADE-O FF M ETHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 52 D ESIGN OF EXPERIM ENTS (D OE) ........................................................................................................ 54 RESPONSE SURFACE M ETHOD ................................................................................................................ 55 CHAPTER 4: CASE STUDY A PPLICATION TO CRUISE SHIP D ESIGN ............................................................. 59 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 79 APPLICATIONS FOR IMPLEM ENTATION ............................................................................................... 79 U NIFIED TRADEOFF ENVIRONMENT ..................................................................................................... 80 RATIONAL D ECISION M AKING AND G ROUPS .......................................................................................... 82 UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................................................ 86 SUM M ARY OF APPLICATIONS .................................................................................................................. 88 RECOMM ENDATIONS FOR FUTURE W ORK ............................................................................................ 88 W ORKS CITED ............................................................................................................................................. 91 W ORKS CONSULTED....................................................................................................................................95 A PPENDICES.................................................................................................................................................99 A PPENDIX 1: Synthesis M odel (Partial) ...............................................................................................

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