GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Dutch Delay, Successful Norway: The progress of the domestic renewable energy transition compared, with a special focus on wind energy Source: by author. MSC THESIS POLITICAL SCIENCE: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH PROJECT: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ENERGY 2017-18 JUNE 18TH 2018, AMSTERDAM Author: Irene Niet UvA-ID: 10786090 Supervisor: Dr M.P. Amineh Second reader: Dr R. Pistorius [This page is intentionally left blank] 1 Abstract In light of climate change mitigation, the European Union established the 2020-goals, of which one is that 20 percent of energy consumption should come from renewable sources. However, for the Netherlands it is doubtful whether this goal will be achieved. As fossil fuels are becoming increasingly scarce and the consumption of fossil fuels has detrimental effect on the environment, a domestic renewable energy transition is not only necessary to reach the 2020- goals, but also for economic sustainability. Therefore, with concepts of both transition theory and political economy, this research answers the following question: why have the state-market relations hampered the domestic renewable energy transition in the Netherlands, but not in Norway? Using a comparative analysis, this research indicates that (a) the most influential factor is whether the government has enough power over the corporations and is willing to use this power to progress the renewable energy transition, which is the case in Norway, but not in the Netherlands. Additionally, (b) it is helpful when big energy corporations are already transforming their business models towards renewable energy, such as Statoil Asa. Finally, (c) radical and severe pressure from civil society actors, as is the case in Norway, aids the transition, as it influences the government and public support in favour of the transition. Thus, the content of state-market relations and how these relations are used, influence the domestic renewable energy transition. 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements 7 Maps 9 List of abbreviations 13 List of figures and tables 14 List of tables 14 List of figures 14 Chapter 1 - Introduction 15 1.1 Introduction 15 1.2 Literature review 17 1.3 Theory and concepts 20 1.4 Brief argumentation and hypotheses 26 1.5 Methods and data 27 1.6 Structure of the thesis 28 Chapter 2 – A comparison of the current Dutch and Norwegian Energy Situation 31 2.1 Introduction 31 2.2 The Dutch and Norwegian domestic energy production 31 2.3 The Dutch and Norwegian domestic energy consumption 34 2.4 The Dutch and Norwegian energy trade: import and export 37 2.5 Energy policies of the Dutch and Norwegian governments 39 2.6 Conclusion 43 3 Chapter 3 – The relations between the government, energy corporations and civil society actors in the Netherlands and Norway concerning the renewable energy transition 45 3.1 Introduction 45 3.2 Dutch state-energy corporations relations 47 3.2.1 The direct ties between the Dutch state and the energy corporations: shares and networks 47 3.2.2 The indirect ties between the Dutch state and energy corporations: policies 48 3.3 Norwegian state-energy corporations relations 50 3.3.1 The direct ties between the Dutch state and the energy corporations: shares and networks 50 3.3.2 The indirect ties between the Norwegian state and energy corporations: policies 51 3.4 Lateral pressure in the Dutch society 53 3.4.1 Actions taken by the Dutch civil society actors 53 3.4.2 The effect of the actions taken by the Dutch civil society actors 54 3.5 Lateral pressure in the Norwegian society 56 3.5.1 Actions taken by the Norwegian civil society actors 56 3.5.2 The effect of the actions taken by the Norwegian civil society actors 57 3.6 Conclusion 58 Chapter 4 – Comparison of the strategies and interests of the big energy corporations regarding the renewable energy transition 61 4.1 Introduction 61 4.2 Energy corporations’ investment in wind energy 62 4.3 Energy corporations’ cooperation and merging with other corporations 67 4.4 Future outlooks and ambitions of the energy corporations 69 4.4.1 Future outlooks of the Dutch energy corporations 69 4.4.2 Future outlooks of the Norwegian energy corporations 72 4.4.3 The Dutch and Norwegian energy corporations’ outlooks and their effects compared 74 4.5 Conclusion 74 4 Chapter 5 – Comparison of the challenges in the Dutch and Norwegian domestic renewable energy transition 77 5.1 Introduction 77 5.2 Challenges for the Dutch domestic renewable energy transition 77 5.3 Challenges for the Dutch domestic renewable energy transition 81 5.4 The Dutch and Norwegian domestic renewable energy transition challenges compared 84 5.5 Conclusion 85 Chapter 6 - Conclusion 87 6.1 General conclusion 87 6.2 Expected challenges and recommendations 89 6.3 Discussion 91 References 93 Full list (alphabetic order) 93 Categorized list 106 Interviews 106 Primary sources 106 Secondary sources 114 Annex 1: Overview of interviews 121 5 6 Acknowledgements I would first like to thank my supervisor, Dr Amineh, for his intensive supervision and useful feedback. He always made sure that all deadlines would be met and that I would hand in only my best work (and not an excessive number of pages). Second, I would also like to thank my second reader, Dr Pistorius, for taking the time to review my work. I am profoundly grateful to all my interviewees. Due to their selfless offering of their time to a student, I was able to add new information and important perspective to my research, making it much more valuable, relevant and interesting. Also my sincere thanks to Suzanne, Rein, Tim and Max, who were always willing to critique my work and give me detailed feedback. They helped me to make sure my line of arguing is clear and understandable. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for giving me the much needed love and support, and keeping me motivated. 7 8 Maps Map 1: Map of Europe. Note: Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are also part of the European Economic Area. Source:Nations Online (2018a). 9 Map 2: Map of the Netherlands Source: Nations Online (2018b). 10 Map 3: Map of Norway Source: Nations Online (2018c). 11 12 List of abbreviations CBS Centraal Bureau voor Statistiek CEEP Central Europe Energy Partners CEO Chief Executive Officer EBN Energie Beheer Nederland B.V. EEA European Economic Area EREF European Renewable Energies Federation EU European Union FNV Federatie Nederlandse Vakbeweging IEA International Energy Agency IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency ktoe Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent KVGN Koninklijke Vereniging van Gasfabrikanten in Nederland LO Norge Landsorganisasjonen i Norge Mtoe Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent MW Megawatt hours SDE Stimulering Duurzame Energieproductie SDE+ Stimulering Duurzame Energieproductie + SER Social Economische Raad SSB Statistik senstralbyra TWh Terawatt hours US United States VEMW Vereniging voor Energie, Milieu en Water WWF World Wide Fund for Nature 13 List of figures and tables List of tables Table 1: Big energy corporations' investments in wind energy projects_________________ 66 Table 2: The enabling and constraining factors in the Dutch and Norwegian domestic renewable energy transition compared ___________________________________ 85 List of figures Figure 1: Concepts used in this thesis and their relation to each other __________________ 22 Figure 2: The key actors of this thesis and their position on a domestic renewable energy transition _________________________________________________________ 25 Figure 3: Total Dutch domestic energy production from 2006 to 2015, in ktoe. __________ 32 Figure 4: Total Norwegian domestic energy production from 2006 to 2015, in ktoe _______ 33 Figure 5: Total Norwegian domestic wind energy production from 2006 to 2015, in MW ___________________________________________________________ 33 Figure 6: Total Dutch domestic renewable energy production from 2000 to 1016 in Mtoe __________________________________________________________ 34 Figure 7: Final Dutch and Norwegian domestic energy consumption in 2016, in percentages _______________________________________________________ 35 Figure 8: Dutch domestic energy consumption per sector in 2016, in percentages ________ 36 Figure 9: Norwegian domestic energy consumption per sector in 2016, in percentages ____ 37 Figure 10: Dutch and Norwegian energy trade (import and export) in 2016 compared, in percentages _______________________________________________________ 39 Figure 11: Renewable energy transition progress (until 2015) and 2020-goals in percentages. ________________________________________________________________ 42 Figure 12: The Dutch state-market relations and constraining or enabling factors in the energy transition _________________________________________________________ 80 Figure 13: The Norwegian state-market relations and constraining or enabling factors in the energy transition ___________________________________________________ 83 14 Chapter 1 - Introduction 1.1 Introduction The topic of this research is the progress of the renewable energy transition, particularly in the area of wind energy, in Norway and the Netherlands, and how this is influenced by the state- market relations in the societies of both countries. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to show why the state-market relations in the Netherlands are slowing down the renewable energy transition, while this is not the case in Norway. This can bring clarity and form the basis for recommendations on progressing the renewable energy transition, which