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Tsunami Impacts and Mitigation Plans for the Khoa Lak (Andaman Sea), Coastal Areas of Thailand

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Tsunami Impacts and Mitigation Plans for the Khoa Lak (Andaman Sea), Coastal Areas of Thailand Tsunami Impacts and Mitigation Plans for the Khoa Lak (Andaman Sea), Coastal Areas of Thailand. Somsak Wathanaprida A Thesis submitted to the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, Norwich in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2010 © This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that no quotation from the thesis, nor any information derived therefrom, may be published without the author's prior, written consent. ii ABSTRACT Tsunami Impacts and Mitigation Plans for the Khao Lak (Andaman Sea) Coastal Areas of Thailand. Somsak Wathanaprida School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK To build a tsunami-resilient coastal community it is fundamental to understand the characteristics of past tsunami patterns and likely impact of possible future events. The MOST model (Method of Splitting Tsunami) and ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) were used to model patterns of water levels, wave speed and direction, and inundation distances resulting from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on the Khao Lak coast of Thailand. The model of the 2004 tsunami was calibrated against estimates of water depths made along the coast in early 2005; an Mw = 9.3 earthquake in the model was found to best match observations. The model was verified against a variety of other evidence, including digital photographs and video clips taken on the day of the tsunami, mainly from two sites along the Khao Lak coast at Nang Thong and Bang Niang beaches, together with aerial surveys and a tide-gauge record. The timing and extent of water recession prior to the arrival of the first wave, the heights and number of the subsequent waves, and the inundation distances corresponded well providing confidence in the application of the MOST model to this coastal region. Historical evidence suggest that tsunami of the magnitude of 2004 are rare (200-700 y) so for mitigation planning in the Khao Lak area a smaller tsunamigenic-earthquake (Mw =8.4) was chosen (100-500 y). Sensitivity to the choice of Mw was also considered. The tsunami from such an event is similar in its character to the 2004 event, less extreme but still highly destructive, reaching the Khao Lak coast in ~ 2 h 20 min, and preceded by receding water levels. The third waves which arrives at 4 h 0 min after the earthquake is predicted to be the most destructive, resulting in inundation of 4.5-5.5 m depth and wave speeds of 6-8 m/s at the coastline. The mitigation plan and measures for Bang Niang and Nang Thong Beaches were developed based on the occurrence of such a Mw=8.4 event. iii This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of my father, Somkiat Wathanaprida. His words of inspiration and encouragement still think over. To my mother Pensri Wathanaprida who has not only raised and nurtured me, but also supported me all the way since the beginning of my studies. iv Acknowledgement I am heartily thankful to my supervisor, Professor Chris E. Vincent, whose encouragement, supervision and support enabled me to build up an understanding of the issue. His knowledgeable advice, insightful criticisms, and patient encouragement assisted the writing of this dissertation in many ways. Any attempt at any level can not be satisfactorily completed without the support and guidance of these academic people. I would like to express my immense gratitude to Dr. Paul Burton for his helpful comments on this dissertation. I gratefully thank Dr. Tony Dolphin for his support and guidance. Moreover, I wish to thank all staff of the School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia for their constant support that has encouraged me to come up with this dissertation. I would like to thank my colleagues at the Department of Mineral Resources of Thailand, who helped me a lot in gathering information, collecting data and guiding me from time to time in conducting this research. I also would like to make a special reference to Mr. Wichien Intasen who is a Senior Geologist of the Department of Mineral Resources. Without their support, I could not have gotten such relevant data. I would also thank Assoc. Prof. Absornsuda Siripong and all staff of the UNESCO-IOC International Training Course on Tsunami Numerical Modelling Course II: Tsunami inundation modelling, which was held on 29 June – 6 July 2007 at Chulalongkorn University. It is a pleasure to thank those who made this thesis possible, Dr. Peter Wilson and Dr. Tom Greaves for editing this dissertation. I am also thankful to my brother who always believed in me, and my friends who have provided their whole support at all times for the successful completion of this dissertation. Lastly, I present my regards and blessings to all of those who supported me in any respect during the completion of my study. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgement ................................................................................................... iv CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER 2 TSUNAMI WAVES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. ............................................. 3 2-1 Tsunami Definition and General Characteristics. ........................................ 3 2-2 Geological Settings Relating to Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean Region. ........................................................................................................... 4 2-2.1 Geomorphologic Features of the Indian Ocean ........................................................... 4 2-2.2 Plate Tectonics in the Indian Ocean ............................................................................ 5 2-2.3 Subduction and Seafloor Spreading at the Andaman and Sunda Trenches ................. 7 2-3 The History of Tsunamis in the Region of the Indian Ocean .................... 9 2-4 The 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami..................................... 15 2-4.1 Rupture zone of the 2004 Earthquake ....................................................................... 15 2-4.2 Characteristics of the 2004 Earthquake ..................................................................... 18 2-4.2.1 Rupture and Rupture Velocity ................................................................................ 18 2-4.2.2 Slow Slip ........................................................................................................................... 18 2-4.2.3 Seafloor Displacement Heights ............................................................................... 21 2-4.3 Horizontal Movement and Vertical Movement Resulting from the 2004 Earthquake 25 2-4.4 The Energy Released by the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake. .................................. 27 2-5 Future Earthquake Generated Tsunami in the Indian Ocean Region. 28 2-5.1 The Arakan Section ................................................................................................... 29 vi 2-5.2 The Sumatra Section ................................................................................................. 30 2-5.3 The Andaman-Nicobar Section ................................................................................. 33 CHAPTER 3 THE 2004 INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI INCIDENT AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN THAILAND ....................................................................................... 35 3-1 Topography and Tsunami Characteristics .................................................... 35 3-2 Tsunami Wave Height and Speed ..................................................................... 36 3-3 Tsunami Effects and Devastation ..................................................................... 37 3-3.1 Natural Geomorphologic Changes ............................................................................ 37 3-3.2 Loss of Life and Physical Damage to Property ......................................................... 39 CHAPTER 4 NUMERICAL MODELLING OF TSUNAMI PROPAGATION AND INUNDATION FORECASTING. .......................................................................................... 42 4-1 Wave Propagation Modelling ............................................................................ 43 4-2 Wave Inundation Modelling ............................................................................... 44 4-3 MOST (Method Of Splitting Tsunami) Numerical Model .......................... 45 4-4 ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) ................................ 46 4-5 Numerical Tsunami Forecasts for the Indian Ocean and the Thai Coast 46 CHAPTER 5 REGIONAL SETTING& METHODOLOGY ................................................ 50 5-1 Regional Setting ...................................................................................................... 50 5-1.1 General Location of Khao Lak, Phang-nga Province. ............................................... 50 5-1.2 Geological Setting ..................................................................................................... 52 5-1.3 Coastal Geomorphology of Khao Lak ....................................................................... 52 5-1.4 Climate ...................................................................................................................... 54 vii 5-1.5 Economic Development
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