Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Part II

Department of the Interior and Wildlife Service 50 CFR Part 17 Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition To List the Yellow-Billed as Threatened or Endangered; Proposed Rules

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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR scientific and commercial information scientific or commercial information to that listing may be warranted, we make indicate that a listing may be warranted Fish and Wildlife Service a finding within 12 months of the date and announced that a status review of receipt of the petition on whether the would be promptly commenced. In that 50 CFR Part 17 petitioned action is: (a) Not warranted, notice we announced the opening of a [FWS–R7–ES–2009–0133; MO9221050083– (b) warranted, or (c) warranted, but that 60-day information collection period B2] immediate proposal of a regulation and invited the public to submit to us implementing the petitioned action is any pertinent information concerning Endangered and Threatened Wildlife precluded by other pending proposals to the status of or threats to this . and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a determine whether species are Approximately 28,000 comments were Petition To List the Yellow-Billed Loon threatened or endangered, and received during the information as Threatened or Endangered expeditious progress is being made to collection period. We also consulted add or remove qualified species from with recognized yellow-billed loon AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, the Lists of Endangered and Threatened experts and other Federal and State Interior. Wildlife and Plants. Section 4(b)(3)(C) of agencies. We sent letters to national ACTION: Notice of 12-month petition the Act requires that we treat a petition wildlife or natural resource agencies in finding. for which the requested action is found , , , , to be warranted but precluded as though Norway, Republic of Korea (South SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and resubmitted on the date of such finding, Korea), and the Russian Federation, Wildlife Service (Service), announce a and is, therefore, subject to a new asking for information about ongoing 12-month finding on a petition to list finding to be made within 12 months management measures and any the yellow-billed loon (Gavia adamsii) and subsequently thereafter until we conservation and management strategies as threatened or endangered, with take action on a proposal to list or being developed to protect the species. critical , under the Endangered withdraw our original finding. We must We received a formal response from the Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act). publish these 12-month findings in the government of Canada, and an informal The petitioners provided two listing Federal Register. response from a government biologist in options for consideration by the Service: the Russian Federation. (1) Listing the yellow-billed loon Previous Federal Actions On June 11, 2007, we received a 60- throughout its range, or (2) listing the On April 5, 2004, we received a day notice of intent to sue from the United States population of the yellow- petition from the Center for Biological Center for Biological Diversity alleging a billed loon as a Distinct Population Diversity (CBD) (Sitka, AK), Natural violation of section 4 of the ESA for Segment (DPS). After a review of the Resources Defense Council failure to complete a 12-month finding best available scientific and commercial (Washington, DC), Pacific Environment on the petition. We informed the information, we have determined that (San Francisco, CA), Trustees for Alaska plaintiffs by letter dated July 9, 2007, listing the yellow-billed loon rangewide (Anchorage, AK), Kaira Club (Chukotka, that further action on the petition was under the Act is warranted but Anadyr, Russia), Kronotsky Nature precluded by higher priority listing precluded by other higher priority Preserve (Kamchatka Region, Russia), actions but that, pending the fiscal year listing actions. Taiga Rangers (Khabarovsk Region, 2008 allocation of funds, we hoped to DATES: This finding was made on March Russia), Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Local complete the 12-month finding within 25, 2009. Public Fund (Sakhalin Region, Russia), that fiscal year. Interregional Public Charitable On December 19, 2007, the Center for ADDRESSES: This finding is available on Organization of Far Eastern Resource Biological Diversity (CBD) filed a the Internet at http:// Centers (Vladivostok, Russia), complaint alleging that the Service had www.regulations.gov. Data, information, Kamchatka Branch of Pacific Institute of failed to make a timely 12-month comments, or questions regarding this Geography (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, finding on the petition, as required notice should be submitted to the Field Russia), and Kamchatka League of under section 4 of the ESA. Consistent Supervisor, Endangered Species Branch, Independent Experts (Petropavlovsk- with a settlement agreement reached Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Kamchatsky, Russia) to list the yellow- between the Service and CBD, the Court Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, billed loon as endangered or threatened ordered the Service to submit this 12- 101–12th Ave., Room 110, Fairbanks, throughout its range, or as a Distinct month finding for publication to the AK 99701. The complete administrative Population Segment in the United Federal Register by February 15, 2009. file for this finding is available for States, and to designate critical habitat Because the Service later received public inspection, by appointment, once listed. The petition summarizes substantial new information to be during normal business hours at the threats to the species based on CBD’s evaluated and considered in the 12- above address. review of Fair’s (2002) report, prepared month finding, we subsequently sought FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. for the Natural Resources Defense and were granted a one month extension Ted Swem, Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Council and Trustees for Alaska, on the with a new deadline of March 16, 2009. Field Office (see ADDRESSES) (telephone status and significance of the species in This notice constitutes a 12-month 907–456–0441; facsimile 907–456– Alaska, as well as CBD’s review of the finding for the petition to list the 0208). If you use a telecommunications scientific literature. In September 2006, yellow-billed loon as threatened or device for the deaf (TDD), call the the Service completed a ‘‘Conservation endangered. The petitioners provided Federal Information Relay Service Agreement for the Yellow-billed Loon two listing options for consideration by (FIRS) at 800–877–8339. (Gavia adamsii)’’ with Federal, State, the Service: (1) Listing the yellow-billed SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: and local partners. In response to the loon throughout its range, or (2) listing petition, we published a 90-day finding the United States population of the Background on the yellow-billed loon in the Federal yellow-billed loon as a Distinct Section 4(b)(3)(B) of the Act (16 Register on June 6, 2007 (72 FR 31256). Population Segment (DPS). Because we U.S.C. 1531 et seq.) requires that, for In the 90-day finding we determined find that listing the yellow-billed loon any petition presenting substantial that the petition presented substantial rangewide is warranted at this time,

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there is no need to conduct further Species Biology (Pandalus danae, Spirontocaris analysis of whether listing the United The yellow-billed loon is a migratory ochotensis), hermit crabs (Pagarus sp.), States population of the yellow-billed . Solitary pairs breed on lakes in the and marine worms (Nereis sp.) (Bailey loon as a DPS, which is a smaller of the United States, 1922, p. 205; Cottam and Knappen 1939, geographic entity than the entire range, Russia, and Canada from June to p. 139; North 1994, pp. 6–7; Earnst 2004, pp. 9–10). Pacific sand dabs is warranted, as this consideration is September. During the remainder of the subsumed by the rangewide warranted (Citharichthys sordidus) were found in year the species winters in more but precluded finding. a yellow-billed loon collected southern coastal waters of the Pacific extralimitally (i.e., outside the limits of Outline of This Notice Ocean and the Norway and North . the species’ range) in Baja Non-breeding remain in marine In this notice, we first provide (Jehl 1970, p. 376) and sculpin waters throughout the year, either in background information on the biology (Myoxocephalus scorpius) in a wintering areas or offshore from of the yellow-billed loon. Next, we specimen collected in Norway (Collett breeding grounds. address each of the categories of factors 1894, p. 280). Prey species taken in The following information regarding listed in section 4(a)(1) of the Act. For other wintering grounds, such as in the each factor, we first determine whether the description and natural history of Yellow (which supports 276 fish any stressors, or risk factors, appear to the yellow-billed loon (American species and 54 crustacean species; be negatively affecting yellow-billed Ornithologists’ Union 1998, p. 5) has UNDP 2002, p. 8) are unknown. anywhere within the species’ been condensed from the status During the breeding season, foraging range. If we determine they are, then we assessments conducted by North (1994) include lakes, rivers, and the evaluate whether each of these risk and Earnst (2004), and updated with nearshore marine environment. factors is resulting in population-level information that has become available Successfully breeding adults feed their effects that are significant to the since then. young almost entirely from the brood- determination of the conservation status and Description rearing lake (North 1994, p. 14). of the species. If so, we describe it as a Ninespine sticklebacks (Pungitius ‘‘threat.’’ The fact that we find a stressor The yellow-billed loon ( pungitius) and least cisco (Coregonus to be a threat to the species does not , Gaviidae) is one of sardinella) are thought to be the main necessarily mean that the species meets the largest of the five loon species and foods of chicks in Alaska (Earnst 2004, the definition of threatened or similar in appearance to the common p. 9). Other freshwater prey available in endangered. Rather, in the subsequent loon (Gavia immer). There are no Alaska that are likely utilized include finding section, we then consider each recognized subspecies or geographic Alaska blackfish (Dallia pectoralis), of the stressors and identified threats, variations (American Ornithologists’ fourhorn sculpins (M. quadricornus), individually and cumulatively, and Union 1998, p. 5). A field characteristic amphipods, and isopods (Earnst 2004, make a determination with respect to that distinguishes yellow-billed loons p. 9), as well as aquatic plant material whether the species is endangered or from common loons is their larger (Sjo¨lander and A˚ gren 1976, p. 460). In threatened according to the statutory yellow or ivory-colored bill. Adults arctic Russia, limited stomach content standard. weigh 4,000 to 6,000 grams (8.8 to 13.2 analysis indicates sticklebacks, salmon, The term ‘‘threatened species’’ means pounds) and are 774 to 920 millimeters crustaceans, beetles, and plant any species (or subspecies or, for (30 to 37 inches) in length. Breeding vegetation are consumed during the vertebrates, distinct population (alternate) of adults of both breeding season (Uspenskii 1969, p. segments) that is likely to become an sexes is black on top with white spots 130). endangered species within the on the wings and underside, and white foreseeable future throughout all or a stripes on the neck. Non-breeding Breeding Habitat and Territories significant portion of its range. The Act (basic) plumage is gray-brown with Yellow-billed loons nest exclusively does not define the term ‘‘foreseeable fewer and less distinct white spots than on margins of lakes in coastal and future.’’ However, in a January 16, 2009, breeding plumage, with paler inland low-lying tundra from 62° to 74° memorandum addressed to the Acting undersides and head, and a blue-gray North (N) latitude. Lakes that support Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife bill. Hatchlings have dark brown and breeding loons have abundant fish Service, the Office of the Solicitor, gray down, and juveniles are gray with populations. Studies of yellow-billed Department of the Interior, concluded, a paler head (North 1994, p. 2). Yellow- loon habitat have identified several ‘‘* * * as used in the ESA, Congress billed loons are specialized for aquatic characteristics that predict loon intended the term ‘foreseeable future’ to foraging with a streamlined shape and presence. These may be indirect describe the extent to which the legs near the rear of the body, and are measures or correlates of the actual Secretary can reasonably rely on unable to take flight from land. characteristics necessary or preferred by predictions about the future in making loons, such as fish availability. determinations about the future Feeding Habits Predictors of yellow-billed loon conservation status of the species.’’ In a Yellow-billed loons forage underwater presence on a lake include water depths footnote, the memorandum states, ‘‘In for fish and aquatic invertebrates. greater than 2 meters (m) or 6.5 feet (ft) this memorandum, references to Limited information exists on specific allowing for unfrozen water under the ‘reliable predictions’ are not meant to prey species consumed. Marine prey ice during winter; large lake areas (at refer to reliability in a statistical sense. species collected from loons wintering least 13.4 hectares (ha) or 33 acres (ac)); Rather, I use the words ‘‘rely’’ and in southeast Alaska and Canada include connections to streams that may supply ‘‘reliable’’ according to their common, fish such as sculpins (Leptocottus fish; highly convoluted, vegetated, and non-technical meanings in ordinary armatus, Myoxocephalus sp.), Pacific low-lying shorelines; clear water; and usage. Thus, for the purposes of this tomcod (Microgadus proximus), and dependable water levels (Earnst et al. memorandum, a prediction is reliable if rock cod (Sebastodes sp.), and 2006, pp. 230–233; Stehn et al. 2005, it is reasonable to depend upon it in invertebrates such as amphipods pp. 9–10; North 1994, p. 6). Probability making decisions’’ (M–37021, January (Orchomonella sp., Anonyx nirgax), of yellow-billed loon presence on a lake 16, 2009). isopods (Idothea sp.), shrimps increases with the absence of Pacific

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loons (Gavia pacifica) (Earnst et al. On average, individuals reach sexual Apparent nesting success calculated 2006, p. 233; Stehn et al. 2005, p. 9). maturity at 3 years of age, but may not from these weekly surveys was 1–10 Breeding lakes may be near major rivers, acquire breeding territories until at least percent higher than calculations based but are usually not connected to them, 4 years of age (North 1994, p. 15). The on nesting and brood-rearing surveys possibly because greater fluctuations average age at first breeding for common conducted 8 weeks apart, because the associated with river connections may loons is 6 years (Evers 2004, p. 18). more frequent surveys identified nests flood nests or cause turbidity that Territory occupancy and nesting with chicks that did not survive to 5– compromises foraging success (North & success of yellow-billed loons were 6 weeks of age (Johnson et al. 2006, p. Ryan 1989, p. 303). Falling water levels studied on the Colville River Delta 17; Johnson et al. 2007, p. 16; Johnson may also expose loon nests to increased during 18 years between 1983 and 2007. et al. 2008, p. 15). The highest recorded risk of predation (Kertell 1996, p. 356). Ground-based surveys in 1983 and 1984 apparent nesting success on the Colville Breeding territories (areas defended found 76 and 79 percent of the River Delta was 71 percent in 2007 against other yellow-billed loons and territorial pairs nesting, respectively based on weekly monitoring surveys other loon species, particularly Pacific (Field et al. 1993, p. 329). The same (Johnson et al. 2008, p. 15). loons) may include one or more lakes or territories studied in 1983 and 1984 parts of lakes. Territory size, likely were visited in 1989 and 1990, and 42 Breeding Distribution dependent upon lake size and quality, percent and 67–71 percent, respectively, Yellow-billed loons nest near ranged from 13.8 to greater than 100 ha of the territorial pairs were found freshwater lakes in arctic tundra of (34 to greater than 247 ac) on the nesting (Field et al. 1993, p. 329; North Alaska on the Arctic Coastal Plain Colville River Delta, Alaska (North 1993, p. 46). Low nest occupancy (ACP), northwestern Alaska, and St. 1986, as cited in North 1994, p. 10). It recorded in 1989 may have been a result Lawrence Island; in Canada east of the is thought that individual loons occupy of surveys being conducted late in Mackenzie Delta and west of Hudson the same breeding territory throughout incubation (July 9–16, 1989) after nests Bay; and in Russia on a relatively their reproductive life. Some breeding of some pairs had already failed; weekly narrow strip of coastal tundra from the lakes are ‘‘known to be reoccupied over monitoring surveys of nesting yellow- Chukotka Peninsula in the east and on long time spans’’ (North 1994, p. 10), billed loons on the Colville River Delta the western Taymyr Peninsula in the most likely by the same monogamous in 2005–2007 found that 19–36 percent west, with a break in distribution pair (North 1994, p. 10), similar to of the nests had failed by July 10–12 of between these two areas (Earnst 2004, p. common loons (Evers 2004, p. 13). those years (Johnson et al. 2006, Table 3; North 1993, p. 42; Red Data Book of 5; Johnson et al. 2007, Table 5; Johnson the Russian Federation 2001, p. 366; Nesting Sites and Behavior et al. 2008, Table 4). However, low nest Ryabitsev 2001, p. 22; Il’ichev and Flint Nest sites are usually located on occupancy occurred in some years 1982, p. 277; Pearce et al. 1998, p. 369). islands, hummocks, or peninsulas, during two long-term studies of yellow- Loons are sparsely distributed across along low shorelines, within 1 m (3 ft) billed loons on the Colville Delta. The their range, although, perhaps because of water. The nest location, which may percentage of territorial pairs nesting of non-uniform quality of habitat, at a be used in multiple years, usually ranged from 39 percent to 89 percent large scale breeding birds are somewhat provides a better view of the during a 6-year ground-based study clumped in distribution. surrounding land and water than other (1995–2000; Earnst 2004, p. 9) and from Breeding Bird Densities available lakeshore locations. Nests are 43 percent to 76 percent (average of 58 constructed of mud or peat, and are percent) during 13-years of aerial Most of the breeding range of the often lined with vegetation. One or two surveys (1993–2007; ABR, Inc. 2007, yellow-billed loon has not been large, smooth, mottled brown are Table 1; ABR, Inc., unpublished data). adequately surveyed, and only in Alaska laid in mid-to late June (North 1994, pp. Reproductive success, like nest have surveys been conducted 11–12). replacement after nest occupancy by territorial pairs, varied on specifically for breeding yellow-billed predation occurs rarely; unless failure the Colville River Delta. Low loons. Unless otherwise noted, the occurs very early in the season, the reproductive success has been attributed following discussion includes data from short arctic summer probably precludes to late ice melt or extreme flooding waterfowl surveys for which loons were the production or success of (Earnst 2004, p. 9). Based on Mayfield not focal species. In these surveys, replacement clutches (Earnst 2004, p. 8). survival rates (a technique for density estimates were not corrected for Hatching occurs after 27 to 28 days of measuring nesting success in which the visibility bias and so are minimal incubation by both sexes. Although the number of days from discovery of the estimates (see discussion in Groves et al. age at which young are capable of flight nest to fledging or failure (exposure 1996, pp. 193–194). Surveys enumerate is unknown, it is probably similar to days) is used to compute a daily nest- all yellow-billed loons seen on breeding common loons (8–9, possibly up to 11, survival rate) calculated for yellow- grounds, including an unknown weeks). The young leave the nest soon billed loons nesting on the Colville proportion of which are non-breeders after hatching, and the family may move River Delta in 1995–2000, 4 percent to (Earnst et al. 2005, p. 300). between natal and brood-rearing lakes. 60 percent of eggs/chicks survived from Alaska Both males and females participate in laying to age 6 weeks (Earnst 2004, p. feeding and caring for young (North 9). Apparent nesting success [(broods/ Based on fixed-wing aerial survey 1994, p. 13). nests) × 100] based on broods counted data (1992 to 2003 ACP and North Slope on aerial surveys conducted 8 weeks Eider (NSE) surveys conducted by the Life History apart during nesting and brood-rearing Service), Earnst et al. (2005, p. 300) There is no reliable scientific ranged from 19 percent to 64 percent calculated that most of the population information on lifespan and annually in 13 years between 1993 and on the ACP of Alaska occurred within survivorship, but as large-bodied birds 2007 (ABR, Inc. 2007, Table 1; ABR, concentration areas with more than 0.11 with low clutch size, yellow-billed Inc., unpublished data). During the last individuals per square kilometer (km2). loons are probably K-selected (long- three years (2005–2007) of this study, Such areas comprised only 12 percent of lived and dependent upon high annual weekly monitoring surveys were the surveyed area yet contained 53 adult survival to maintain populations). conducted after nests were found. percent of yellow-billed loon sightings.

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The largest concentration area was on Banks Island from helicopter-based conducted in 1999 and 2000 off the between the Meade and Ikpikpuk waterfowl surveys in 1992 and 1993. coasts of Canada’s arctic islands and the Rivers; it covered only 8 percent of the ACP of Alaska between Cape Halkett Russia survey area, but had 38 percent of and Brownlow Point. Similar surveys yellow-billed loon sightings (Earnst et In Russia, breeding concentrations conducted between Barrow and al. 2005, p. 300). Other notable have been identified on the Chukotka Demarcation Point in 2001 also concentrations were on the Colville (Chukotskiy) Peninsula (Il’ichev and included yellow-billed loon River Delta and west, southwest, and Flint 1982, p. 280; Solovyov 1992, p. observations in Elson Lagoon (Fischer east of Teshekpuk Lake (Earnst et al. 21), Kyttyk Peninsula and Ayon Island 2001, p. 4; Fischer and Larned 2004, p. 2005, p. 300). In aerial lake-circling in western Chukotka (Solovyova 2007, 146). During fixed-wing aerial surveys surveys designed for yellow-billed loons p. 6), and the western Taymyr Peninsula for common eiders in late June of 1999 (fixed-wing aircraft were used 1992– (Krechmar 1966, p. 200; Il’ichev and through 2007, between 23 and 99 2000; helicopters were used 2001– Flint 1982, p. 277). Hodges and Eldridge yellow-billed loons were observed in 2007), the average density on the (2001, pp. 141–142), using fixed-winged nearshore waters and along barrier Colville River Delta (363 km2 (140 mi2) aircraft in the only aerial waterfowl islands of the Beaufort and Chukchi survey area) was 0.13 individuals per survey of the eastern Siberian coast, Seas (Dau and Larned 2007, p. 18). km2 during 10 years from 1993 to 2004 found concentrations of approximately Yellow-billed loons used lagoons and (Johnson et al. 2005, p. 65), and 0.15 to 0.01 birds/km2 on the Cape Schmidt nearshore waters along the coast of St. 0.17 individuals per km2 from 2005 to coast of the Chukotka Peninsula, Lawrence Island in summer in the 1950s 2007 (Johnson et al. 2006, p. 15; Johnson between the Indigirka and Yana River (Fay and Cade 1959, pp. 92, 100). In et al. 2007, p. 16; Johnson et al. 2008, Deltas, and between the Indigirka and Russia, Solovyova (coastal boat surveys; p. 15). Similar surveys for yellow-billed Kolyma Deltas. Post-breeding density on 2007, p. 6) reported densities of 0.24 loons in a larger area (878 km2) (339 Kyttyk Peninsula in western Chukotka birds/km2 using coastal waters near the mi2) in the Northeast Planning Area was approximately 0.52 birds/km2 Kyttyk Peninsula and Ayon Island at the (NE) of the National Petroleum Reserve- (including young birds) during late northern end of Chaun Bay in western Alaska (NPR–A) in 2001–2004 indicated July–August 2003–2007 (calculated Chukotka, and 0.04 birds/km2 at the densities there were lower (0.07 from ground surveys, Solovyova 2007, southern end of Chaun Bay near the individuals/km2; Johnson et al. 2005, p. p. 6). No density estimates are available Chaun River Delta in 2006. Vronskiy 68), except that the density in an area for the Taymyr Peninsula. (1987, p. 30) observed individual adjacent to Fish and Judy Creeks was Nest Densities yellow-billed loons and pairs in bays similar to that of the Colville River Delta 100–150 m (328–492 ft) offshore of 2 2 (Johnson et al. 2005, p. 68; Johnson et Nest density on 363 km (140 mi ) of northwestern Taymyr during summer. al. 2006, p. 15; Johnson et al. 2007, p. the Colville River Delta, Alaska, ranged Yellow-billed loons occurred in summer 16). In western Alaska, where fixed- from 0.03 to 0.08 nests/km2 during 13 along the coast of Wrangel Island, wing aerial surveys were also designed years of aerial surveys for yellow-billed although there were no indications of specifically for loons, density on the loons during 1993–2007 (Johnson et al. nesting on the island (Stishov et al. northern Seward Peninsula averaged 1999, p. 44; Burgess et al. 2003, p. 36; 1991, p. 20). In boat-based surveys in 0.058 (standard error (SE)=0.011; Johnson et al. 2003, p. 43; Johnson et al. the Kara and Barents Seas, arctic (Gavia standard error is a measure of the 2004, p. 74; Johnson et al. 2005, p. 64; arctica) and red-throated (G. stellata) variability in the data) individuals/km2 Johnson et al. 2006, p. 15; Johnson et al. loons were abundant in the nearshore over 2 years (Bollinger et al. 2008, p. 5). 2007, p. 16; Johnson et al. 2008, p. 15). marine waters of the western Nest density in an 878 km2 (339 mi2) and in the ’ and Yenisey estuaries, Canada survey area of NE NPR–A was 0.03 especially in Baidaratskaya Bay, and In Canada, concentrations are found nests/km2 in each year during 2002– occurred in smaller numbers in the on parts of Victoria and Banks Islands, 2004. Higher densities within this area Pechora Bay in the in on the mainland, the Kent Peninsula, were found along Fish and Judy Creeks August and September 1995, but no east of Bathhurst Inlet and west of Ellice (helicopter-based surveys; Johnson et al. yellow-billed loons were observed River, the west side of Boothia 2005, p. 68). In Russia, Solovyov (1992) (Decker et al. 1998, pp. 9, 11). In Peninsula, and the lake district between reported 0.18 nests/km2 on a 27.6 km2 subsequent boat surveys between 1998 Great Slave Lake and Baker Lake, (10.6 mi2) plot searched from the ground and 2003, only one yellow-billed loon including the Thelon Game Sanctuary on Belyaka Spit near Kolyuchin Bay on was observed in mid-August 1998 in (North 1993, p. 42). Densities obtained the Chukotka Peninsula. On the Kyttyk coastal waters northeast of Dolgy Island in 2005 and 2007 from fixed-winged Peninsula in western Chukotka, yellow- (west of Vaigach Island) in the Pechora aerial waterfowl surveys on southern billed loons nest on approximately 25 Sea (M. Gavrilo, in litt. 2008). Victoria Island and the Kent Peninsula percent of lakes larger than 4 ha (9.9 ranged from 0.017 to 0.16 birds/km2 acres) (Solovyova 2007, p. 6). Wintering Habitat and Distribution (Conant et al. 2006, pp. 2, 7; Groves in Wintering habitats include sheltered litt. 2008); lower densities (0.004–0.027 Foraging Distribution During Breeding marine waters less than 30 m (98.4 ft) birds/km2) were found in surveys on the Season deep, such as fiords and areas between Queen Maud Gulf Migratory Bird Yellow-billed loons use nearshore and islands on the inner coast in Norway Sanctuary, King William Island, offshore marine waters adjacent to their (Strann and ;stnes 2007, p. 2). Schmutz Rasmussen Lowlands, and Kugluktuk breeding areas for foraging in summer. (2008, p. 1) found that throughout (Conant et al. 2007, pp. 10, 12; Groves Such habitats are likely used by both migrating and wintering seasons, in litt. 2008). On western Victoria breeding adults and younger or non- yellow-billed loons marked with Island, Raven and Dickson (2006, p. 24) territorial birds (Earnst 2004, p. 7). satellite transmitters occurred from 1 to estimated densities from 0.004 to 0.08 Earnst (2004, pp. 6–7) reviewed yellow- 20 miles offshore. The wintering range birds/km2 from helicopter-based billed loon distribution information includes coastal waters of southern waterfowl surveys. Hines (in litt. 2008) from fixed-wing aerial waterfowl Alaska and British Columbia from the estimated 0.01 yellow-billed loons/km2 surveys that Fischer et al. (2002) Aleutian Islands to Puget Sound; the

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Pacific coast of Asia from the Sea of Migration Islands from Shemya Island in the west Okhotsk south to the Yellow Sea; the Yellow-billed loon migration routes to the Semidi Islands off the coast of the Barents Sea and the coast of the Kola are thought to be primarily marine. Alaska Peninsula (Schmutz in litt. 2008, Peninsula; coastal waters of Norway; Schmutz (in litt. 2008, p. 1) found that p. 1). Most of these yellow-billed loons and possibly (Earnst 2004, yellow-billed loons marked with departed breeding areas in late pp. 13–14; North 1993, pp. 42–43; satellite transmitters generally remained September, arrived in wintering Ryabitsev 2001, p. 22; Schmutz in litt. between 1 and 20 miles from land locations in mid-November, started ; 2008, p. 1; Strann and stnes 2007, p. during migration and winter. Yellow- spring migration in April, and arrived 2; Burn and Mather 1974, p. 278; Gibson billed loons migrate singly or in pairs, on breeding grounds in the first half of and Byrd 2007, p. 68). A small but gather in polynyas (areas of open June; these dates are consistent with proportion of yellow-billed loons may water at predictable, recurrent locations breeding ground arrival dates reported winter in interior lakes or reservoirs in in sea-ice covered regions), ice leads by North (1994, p. 5). Non-breeders or North America (North 1994, p. 3). (more ephemeral breaks in sea ice, often failed nesters may start fall migration in Winter population distribution and along coastlines), and early-melting July. numbers of yellow-billed loons are not areas off river deltas near breeding The migration routes of yellow-billed well documented, but some information grounds in spring along the Beaufort Sea loons breeding in Russia have not been is available from marine bird surveys. studied. Because of the proximity of the Earnst (2004, p. 14) summarized loon coast of Alaska and Canada (Barry et al. 1981, pp. 29–30; Barry and Barry 1982, Chukotka Peninsula to the ACP in observations in boat-based marine bird Alaska, and the fact that ACP breeding population surveys in Lower Cook Inlet, p. 25; Woodby and Divoky 1982, p. 406; Johnson and Herter, 1989, p. 9; Barr yellow-billed loons use the Chukotka Prince William Sound, and Kodiak Peninsula during migration (Schmutz in Island. In these surveys, estimates of 1997, pp. 12–13; Alexander et al. 1997, pp. 15, 17; Mallory and Fontaine 2004, litt. 2008, p. 1), it is likely that some or yellow-billed loons were in tens to low all yellow-billed loons from eastern hundreds, with wide confidence limits. pp. 52–53). These observations of yellow-billed Russia migrate through the Bering Strait In many cases, loons were not identified to Asian wintering areas. to species. Strann and ;stnes (2007, p. loons in the Beaufort Sea during 3) counted 1,160–1,605 yellow-billed migration establish that at least some Population Size yellow-billed loons breeding in loons on surveys conducted off the coast ACP, Alaska of Norway from 1986 to 1994, Canada’s Arctic Islands and along the confirming Norway as the most adjacent Canadian coast use this Yellow-billed loon population indices important known wintering area for the migration route. North (1993, pp. 45–46) on the ACP of Alaska were determined species in Europe. No surveys have been examined evidence of alternative by two independent fixed-wing aerial conducted in Asian wintering areas. In migration routes for yellow-billed loons transect surveys conducted each year by some regularly used wintering areas wintering in southeast Alaska and the Service’s Migratory Bird such as the Yellow Sea, the Aleutian British Columbia, suggesting that they Management program. Surveys were Islands, and Great Britain, the yellow- could migrate overland to mainland flown in early June each year from 1992 billed loon’s small population and breeding areas in Canada, particularly through 2008 (NSE survey, 1992–2008, 2 2 scattered marine distribution may have around Great Slave Lake. Yellow-billed an average of 1,304 km (503.5 mi ) contributed to the impression that loons have been observed on inland transect area that sampled a total area of 2 2 yellow-billed loons are vagrants or rare lakes in Canada and Alaska (North 1993, 30,465 km (11,763 mi ), for 4.3 percent visitors (Lepage 2008, p. 1; Gibson and pp. 43, 46). The existence of this route coverage) and late June each year from Byrd 2007, p. 68; Dudley et al. 2006, p. is still hypothetical, and the number of 1986 through 2006 (ACP survey, 1986– 2 2 533; Scott and Shaw 2008, pp. 241– yellow-billed loons in interior mainland 2006, average of 1,256 km (485 mi ) 248). Canada is highly uncertain (discussed transect area which sampled a total area Immature loons and possibly some below under Population Size). 61,645 km2 (23,801 mi2), for 2.0 percent non-breeding adults stay in wintering Yellow-billed loons breeding in coverage of a larger area than that areas throughout the year (North 1994, Alaska have been studied to determine covered by the NSE survey). The p. 4). Earnst (2004, pp. 11–12) migration routes. Nineteen yellow-billed average population index from the NSE summarized yellow-billed loon loons captured on the ACP between survey is 1,119 yellow-billed loons (95 observations in summer marine boat- 2002 and 2008 were outfitted with percent confidence interval (CI) = 1,012 based surveys conducted in lower Cook satellite transmitters (Schmutz in litt. to 1,226, Larned et al. 2009, p. 24). Inlet and Prince William Sound in 2008, p. 1). All of them migrated to (Note: In order to estimate the reliability southcentral Alaska, and in southeast Asia, predominantly south along the of a sample statistic, such as an average, Alaska. Estimates from all these surveys Russian coastline from the Chukotka it is common to set confidence limits to totaled only 339 yellow-billed loons, but Peninsula (either through the Bering it (Sokal and Rohlf 1995, p. 139). The many loons were not identified to Strait or across the mountains from the limits will show the maximum and species (Earnst 2004, p. 11). In boat- north side of the Chukotka Peninsula to minimum numbers the statistic (e.g., based surveys of murrelets conducted in the Gulf of Anadyr), and along the average) is likely to be, along with a July of 2002–2004 from Icy Bay to Kamchatka coast. They wintered in the measure of that likelihood (e.g., 95 LeConte Bay in southeast Alaska, Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan off China, percent). So, when an average number Kissling et al. (2007, Appendices 7, 8) North Korea, Russia, and Japan (near of birds, for example, is reported, counted 20 yellow-billed loons. Yellow- Hokkaido). All 10 yellow-billed loons followed by a confidence interval, the billed loons have been observed fitted with transmitters on the Seward confidence interval shows the statistical throughout summer months in the Peninsula, Alaska, in 2007 and 2008 range of values that provides cutoff Aleutians (Gibson and Byrd 2007, p. also used the Bering Strait region after points for the likely values for the 68). According to the Red Data Book of leaving breeding grounds. Five of these average.) The long-term mean from the Kamchatka (2006, p. 92), non-breeding migrated to Asian grounds as described ACP survey is 2,611 loons (95 percent birds occur off the coast of Kamchatka above for ACP breeding birds; the other CI = 2,218 to 3,005; Mallek et al. 2007, in summer. 5 wintered throughout the Aleutian p. 10; USFWS unpublished data). The

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confidence intervals around these 16- 2008), and yellow-billed loons are not not been documented (North 1993, and 21-year means incorporate the summarized in the Waterfowl Figure 2). Fair (2002, p. 30) estimated variation due to within-year sampling Population Status annual reports the yellow-billed loon population on error, the spatial variability among compiled by the U.S. and Canadian interior Canadian breeding grounds to transects and within strata, and governments for North American be 4,800, using a density of 0.02 loons variation among years related either to Waterfowl (USFWS 2007, pp. 1–62), in a 100,000 km2 area around the detection rate (observer ability, habitat several recent fixed-wing aerial Sanctuary, and a lower density of 0.007 change, weather conditions) or the waterfowl surveys included loon for the wider area of 400,000 km2. Fair’s availability of birds to be seen (arrival observations in parts of Nunavut and estimate of 4,800 is close to the lower or departure of population components, Northwest Territories. Loons were not end of Poter’s (2008, p. 1) estimate of behavior associated with nesting the focus of the surveys, so it is possible 4,500. We believe Fair’s analysis more chronology). One study integrated that observer effort or identification accurately reflects likely yellow-billed results from both the early and late ability varied, and no visibility loon distribution in Canada, because it surveys, incorporating covariates correction factors or seasonal timing reflects a lower average density for the adjusting for detection rates (Earnst et factors were applied. Helicopter surveys large area where breeding has not been al. 2005). The 12-year mean (1992 yielded estimates ranging from 659 (SE documented. Combining the 4,500 to through 2003) resulted in an estimate of 359) to 1,784 (SE 502) on northwest 14,000 breeding birds estimated for 2,221 individuals (95 percent CI = Victoria Island, and from 98 (SE 70) to interior Canada, and 3,750 to 6,000 1,209–3,233) in early June and 3,369 258 (SE 146) birds in the southwest part breeding birds estimated for the arctic individuals (95 percent CI = 1,910– of the island (Raven and Dickson 2006). (and rounding to thousands), we 4,828) in late June (Earnst et al. 2005, p. A fixed-winged survey included Kent conclude that the Canadian breeding 295). Another estimate of population Peninsula and southeastern Victoria population size is 8,000 to 20,000, but size was determined by lake-circling Island in 2005, and Queen Maud Gulf, that it is most likely at the lower end of aerial searches of greater than 7-ha King William Island, Rasmussen this range. (17.3-acre) lakes on 7 × 7-km (4.35 × Lowlands, and near Kugluktuk in 2006; Russia 4.35-mi) plots as part of a 2003–2004 all areas from both years were repeated study of yellow-billed loon habitat in 2007 but with fewer transects Information on the breeding-ground preferences (Stehn et al. 2005, pp. 1– sampled per unit area. The combined population size of yellow-billed loons 37). This survey was flown from June 15 estimate for both areas from 2005–2006 for Russia is limited. Hodges and Eldridge (2001, Appendix 2) estimated through 22 each year. Based on average fixed-winged surveys and the 2007 674 yellow-billed loons (coefficient of density observed, the estimated total estimate were similar, at 2,500–3,000 variation (C.V., a measure of dispersion population index was 2,544 (95 percent birds (Conant et al. 2006, p. 7; Conant in a probability distribution) 0.55) in a CI = 1,780–3,308) yellow-billed loons et al. 2007, p. 12; Groves in litt. 2008). 157,611-km2 (60,854–mi2) fixed-wing (Stehn in litt. 2008, p. 1). Hines (in litt. 2008) estimated there aerial survey area of the eastern Siberia were 500–1,000 yellow-billed loons on Western Alaska arctic coast from Kolyuchin Bay to the Banks Island, based on helicopter aerial Seward Peninsula and Cape Lena River Delta. We know of no other surveys conducted in 1992 and 1993. Krusenstern fixed-wing aerial lake- loon surveys within the breeding range The range of these point estimates circling surveys, on 12 × 12-km (7.46 × of the yellow-billed loon in Russia. Red 7.46-mi) sample plots, were flown in suggests that between 3,750–6,000 birds Data Books for the Russian Federation June of 2005 and 2007, and resulted in occur on breeding grounds in the (2001, pp. 366–367), Yakutia (1987, p. an estimate of 431 (95 percent CI = 280– surveyed areas. 33), and the Northern Far East of Russia 582) yellow-billed loons on these The rest of the yellow-billed loon’s (1998, pp. 97–98) do not offer western Alaska breeding grounds range on the Canadian mainland has not population estimates. Kondratiev (1989, (Bollinger et al. 2008, p. 1). Additional been surveyed. Based on the vast p. 37) estimated that 2,000 birds nested aerial transects sampling an area of number of large, fish-bearing lakes north in Chukotka, but did not give a basis or 15,234 km2 (5,882 mi2) were flown on of treeline (an area of 500,000–750,000 sources for his estimate. Fair (2002, p. Selawik National Wildlife Refuge and km2) (193,051–289,577 mi2) minus the 31) projected, based on this estimate of adjacent wetlands in June in the years surveyed areas on the mainland (46,000 2,000 birds in Chukotka (Kondratiev 1996 and 1997 (Platte 1999, p. 3), but km2), (17,761 mi2) and using 1989, p. 37), that another 2,000 nested only three yellow-billed loons were opportunistic observations of yellow- on the Taymyr Peninsula, and that sighted, resulting in an estimated mean billed loons by Northwest Territory and perhaps another 1,000 were scattered population index of 44 birds (95 percent Nunavut checklist survey cooperators across the arctic coast, giving 5,000 CI = 0–95) (USFWS unpublished data). over the last decade, Poter (in litt. 2008, birds on Russian breeding areas. Yellow-billed loons were documented p. 2, adjusted from Hines in litt. 2008, Syroechkovsky (in litt. 2008) suggested nesting on St. Lawrence Island in the p. 1) calculated that a density of 0.01– (based on field observations but not 1950s (Fay and Cade 1959, pp. 84, 100), 0.02 birds/km2 would yield an estimate scientific surveys) that the number of but there is no more recent information. of 4,500–14,000 birds in mainland birds on breeding grounds (including Adding western Alaska population breeding areas in Canada, not including non-breeding birds) is around 3,000 for figures to those from the ACP results in surveyed areas in the arctic described in Chukotka, 500 for Yakutia, and about an estimated total of 3,000 to 4,000 the previous paragraph. This estimate is 1,200 for Taymyr, for a total of around yellow-billed loons on breeding grounds based on a very large land area bounded 4,700 birds. However, Solovyova (in. in Alaska. at the southern end by an area of litt. 2008, p. 1; calculated from documented yellow-billed loon Solovyova 2007, p. 6) recently estimated Canada breeding between Great Slave Lake and the post-breeding population of the Although overall breeding population Baker Lake, particularly in or near the Kyttyk Peninsula on Chaun Bay in estimates for yellow-billed loons in Thelon Game Sanctuary (North 1993, p. western Chukotka at 1,000, and the Canada do not exist (http://www.bsc- 42). Between this area and the arctic post-breeding population of nearby eoc.org/clls-bw1.html, accessed May 19, coast is a large area where breeding has Ayon Island at 900 birds. Given

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Solovyova’s (in. litt. 2008, p. 1) point estimate of an increase of 1.6 ACP breeding grounds is either stable or estimates for her study area in percent/yr.) on the ACP. declining slightly, with point estimates Chukotka, she estimated that the total Earnst et al. (2005, pp. 289–304) from models controlling for breeding ground population in sought to improve the estimates above confounding factors estimating decline Chukotka might be as high as 5,000 by using a statistical model that takes on the order of ∼1 percent per year. We birds. If the Chukotka population is into account possible confounding will continue to look for ways to 5,000, the total for Russia could be as factors of survey type, spring timing, improve our ability to detect trends. high as 8,000 based on habitat and observer experience. They used this Surveys in western Alaska have not availability. Thus, our best information model to analyze ACP and NSE survey been conducted for a long enough suggests the Russian breeding data through 2003. Controlling for these period (2005 and 2007) to detect trends. confounding factors, they (p. 298) population is between 5,000 and 8,000 Russia birds. estimated average population growth In summary, the global breeding rate to be 0.991 (95 percent CI = 0.964– In Russia, recent data are fragmentary, ground population size for yellow-billed 1.018), also indicating a stable or making it difficult to determine trends. loons is unknown, but probably at the slightly declining population. In the west, the Red Data Book of the lower end of the range of 16,000 to We also examined a subset of the NSE Russian Federation (2001, p. 366) stated 32,000. The Alaska population estimate data through 2008 that included only that the species no longer nests in of 3,000 to 4,000 is derived from the observations of the most consistent European Russia where it was formerly surveys. Less certain estimates based on and experienced pilot-observer, who has found, such as the Kola Peninsula, the the amount of available habitat (plus flown all 16 early-June NSE surveys archipelago of , and limited survey data) are the lower end during 1992–2008. Each survey includes Vaigach and Ainovy Islands in the Kara of the range of 8,000 to 20,000 birds in observations of two observers: the pilot- Sea, although it is unclear how Canada, and 5,000 to 8,000 in Russia. observer in the left-side seat of the abundant or widespread the species was aircraft, and a second observer in the in these areas historically. (However, Population Trend right-side seat. There have been Kalyakin (2001, p. 10) reports finding it Alaska numerous ‘‘right-side observers’’ over nesting on Novaya Zemlya, although it the course of the NSE survey. Each of is ‘‘extremely rare.’’) Similarly, The only population trends available these observers has a different ability to according to the Red Data Book of the for yellow-billed loons breeding in see and identify birds, and this ability Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District Alaska are on the ACP, where the ACP often increases over successive surveys (1997) near the western end of the and NSE waterfowl surveys are as the observer gains experience. Our Russian breeding range, in the previous conducted. We note that because we analysis of the left-side pilot-observer 20 years only a few non-breeding count only the breeding component of eliminated the necessity to estimate the yellow-billed loons were recorded in the the population, the total population variable magnitudes of influence of District. Strann (in litt. 2008) speculated could decline without being detected for right-side observer experience. In that since the early 1990s there may a number of years. This could occur addition, the increased interest in have been a decline in the number of because increased mortality of breeding yellow-billed loons in 2002 may have yellow-billed loons in the main Norway birds could be masked by movements of influenced new right-side observers to wintering area, which would be birds without territories (either sub- search more intensively for yellow- consistent with a western Russian adult birds or adults which have not billed loons than earlier observers, who breeding ground range contraction if found territories) into vacated focused on waterfowl. Our analysis of birds nesting in western Russia migrate territories. With this caution, we believe the pilot-observer data from the NSE to Norway for winter (which seems the time series of at least 17 years for the survey also eliminated the need to logical). We were unable to find either surveys described below gives us a reconcile the later timing and different the source of the Red Data Book reasonably reliable data set for survey extent of the ACP survey. The statements or supporting evidence for observing population trends, and these average growth rate using this subset of this potential range contraction. In data represent the best information data was slightly lower and more eastern Russia, yellow-billed loons available at this time. precisely estimated at 0.986 (95 percent apparently no longer nest along the A population growth rate, or lambda, CI = 0.967–1.006) (USFWS unpublished northern coast of the Sea of Okhotsk less than 1.00 would indicate data) than the estimate of 0.991 from where they occurred 30–50 years ago, population decline (negative ‘‘growth’’), Earnst et al.’s (2005, p. 298) model, and nor on the Anadyr River delta (Red Data while a lambda greater than 1.00 would the results also indicate a relatively Book of the Russian Federation 2001, p. indicate population growth. For the stable or slightly declining population. 366; Red Data Book of the Northern Far ACP survey 1986–2006, the average In summary, the information available East of Russia 1998, p. 97). However, growth rate was 0.9886 (95 percent CI = from the ACP does not allow us to Solovyova (in litt. 2008) reported that 0.9625–1.0154) (Mallek et al. 2007, p. precisely determine current population the number of breeding yellow-billed 21), and for the NSE survey 1992–2008 trends. Two surveys and multiple loons may be increasing in some (a smaller area than that covered by the analytical approaches used to control locations in eastern Siberia, specifically ACP survey, and surveyed earlier in for confounding factors provide near Chaun Bay in western Chukotka, June), the average growth rate was 1.016 estimates indicating trends ranging from and at Belyaka Spit near Kolyuchin Bay (95 percent CI = 0.995–1.036) slightly increasing to slightly in northeastern Chukotka. (calculated from Larned et al. 2009, decreasing, and all estimates have 95 In summary, we found Figure 1). Thus, these surveys provide percent CIs that include a lambda of 1.0, unsubstantiated reports that the species slightly conflicting perspectives, with indicating that possible trends cannot be may no longer be found in parts of its one suggesting a stable or slightly distinguished from population stability historical range in Russia, but there is declining population (with a point with reasonable certainty. Although the somewhat contradictory information for estimate of a decline of 1.1 percent/yr.) population trend on the ACP is some areas and a lack of survey data for and the other suggesting a stable or uncertain, we conclude that the number all areas. Yellow-billed loons may also slight increasing population (with a of breeding yellow-billed loons on the be increasing in some areas in Russia.

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We conclude that we do not have themselves (i.e., adult survival is adjacent marine waters. Marine reliable trend information for the decreased), the population will decline. activities related to oil and gas Russian breeding grounds. Perhaps most pertinent to a discussion development are discussed under Factor of extinction, rare species—those with E. Canada low numbers—are intrinsically closer to Much of the yellow-billed loon’s As described above for Population a threshold below which recovery is not breeding habitat in Alaska is within Size, survey data for Canadian breeding possible (i.e., minimum viable areas available for oil and gas leasing grounds cover a small portion of the population) (Hunter 1996, p. 137). and development. Approximately three- range, and have not been conducted for These intrinsic aspects of yellow- quarters of the yellow-billed loons that enough years to analyze trends. We billed loon ecology and demography nest in Alaska, and over 90 percent of conclude that we do not have reliable signal the continuing need to monitor those that nest on Alaska’s ACP, occur trend information for Canadian breeding yellow-billed loon populations, despite within the 9.5-million-ha (23.5-million- grounds. the fact that the species continues to be ac) NPR–A (Earnst et al. 2005, p. 300), To summarize rangewide population widely distributed across both its arctic in areas that are leased or available for trend information, we have reliable data breeding range, which is nearly leasing for oil and gas exploration and indicating that the ACP breeding holarctic, and in its wintering range. development. Approximately 29 percent population is stable or slightly of yellow-billed loons breeding on the Factors Affecting the Yellow-Billed declining. We do not have reliable ACP nest in NPR–A tracts that have Loon evidence from other breeding areas that been leased (Stehn and Platte, U.S. Fish breeding populations are increasing or Section 4(a)(1) of the Act (16 U.S.C. and Wildlife Service, in litt. 2008, p. 1), decreasing. There have been no surveys 1533(a)(1)) and regulations promulgated and 25 exploration wells were drilled of yellow-billed loons on wintering to implement the listing provisions of during the period 2000–2007 (http:// areas, so we have no trend information the Act (50 CFR part 424) set forth the www.blm.gov/ak/st/en/prog/energy/ from those areas. procedures for adding species to the oil_gas/npra.html, accessed 3 June Population Resiliency Federal Lists of Endangered and 2008). The Northwest Planning Area Threatened Wildlife and Plants. A (NW) NPR–A Integrated Activity Plan/ Certain intrinsic aspects of yellow- species may be determined to be an Environmental Impact Statement Record billed loon ecology and demography, endangered or threatened species due to of Decision (ROD) (USDOI–BLM 2004a, including low and variable productivity, one or more of the five factors described p. 5) has made 100 percent of the NW adult survival, and low population in section 4(a)(1) of the Act. Below, we NPR–A available for leasing. The Final numbers, are relevant to the species’ provide a summary of our analysis of NE NPR–A Supplemental Integrated status. Stable populations of K-selected threats to the yellow-billed loon. Activity Plan/Environmental Impact species, such as the yellow-billed loon, Statement ROD (USDOI–BLM 2008b, p. Factor A: Present or Threatened are characterized by low annual 1) allows leasing of 86 percent (1.6 Destruction, Modification, or productivity rates balanced with high million ha, or 3.94 million ac) of the NE Curtailment of the Habitat or Range annual survival rates, meaning that NPR–A immediately, and an additional individuals must live many years to We considered whether yellow-billed 9 percent beginning in 2018. Virtually replace themselves with offspring that loon habitats are threatened by oil and all yellow-billed loon breeding habitat survive to recruit into the breeding gas development (including in the NE NPR–A is within areas population. Low productivity means disturbance, changes in freshwater currently available for leasing (USDOI– that depleted K-selected species have chemistry and pollutant loads, and BLM 2008a, Volume 6, Maps 2–4 and 3– lower recovery potential and slower changes in freshwater hydrology), by 10). recovery rates following population degradation of the marine environment If offshore development occurs in the declines than r-selected species, which from pollution or overfishing, or by Chukchi Sea, it is anticipated that a 500- are characterized by high annual climate change. Potential threats from km (300-mi) oil pipeline will be built productivity. Factors that reduce oil and gas development are addressed across the NPR–A from the coast productivity, including loss of by the petitioners under Factor E, but between Icy Cape and Point Belcher to productive breeding habitats, reduction are discussed here under Factor A the Trans-Alaska Pipeline (USMMS in prey populations, and increases in because they are potential mechanisms 2008, p. IV–10). The State of Alaska also nest predators, may further constrain K- for rendering breeding habitats leases rights to oil and gas development selected species’ recovery potential. unsuitable. Potential direct impacts on on its land, including the Colville River Further, most arctic species are loon mortality associated with Delta (ADNR 2008, p. 1), where characterized by variable annual development, such as increased development has already occurred productivity, given the vagaries and predation and oil spills, are discussed within the range and habitats of the severity of arctic weather, fluctuations under Factors C and E, respectively. yellow-billed loon (ADNR 2008, p.1). in predator-prey relationships, and Thus, as a result of past and possible other aspects of arctic ecology. The Terrestrial Oil and Gas Development future oil and gas lease sales, and population impact of threats that reduce Terrestrial and marine oil and gas ongoing exploratory efforts, a significant productivity could be magnified if development occurs in the range of the portion of the yellow-billed loon’s coincident with an infrequent year of yellow-billed loon. Here we discuss breeding habitat in NPR–A is subject to otherwise high productivity. terrestrial development in Alaskan and potential oil and gas development. Although factors that compromise Russian breeding grounds. We are not Additionally, resource development in productivity can cause populations to aware of any terrestrial oil or gas adjacent offshore areas may result in the decline, adult survival is likely the more development within the breeding range construction of pipelines across important determinant of K-selected of the yellow-billed loon in Canada; breeding habitat in NPR–A. species’ population size and persistence planned terrestrial development on the Although lease sales and exploratory (Smith and Smith 2001, p. 235). If Mackenzie River Delta is outside the efforts set the stage for possible future enough adults are removed from the breeding range, although activity there development in yellow-billed loon population prior to replacing could affect loons migrating through breeding habitat in northern Alaska,

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determining the likelihood and timing Republic have operated for decades much as 1.6 km (1 mi) away, or as close of eventual development is difficult. In upstream of yellow-billed loon breeding as a few meters (yards). These behaviors northeast NPR–A, several satellite range, and a large industry varied by individual and circumstance, production pads associated with operates out of Norilsk on the Taymyr and have not been subject to formal existing infrastructure and facilities Peninsula. Gazprom, Russia’s largest oil study (Earnst 2004, p. 31); more outside NPR–A at the Alpine field on and gas company, is developing new importantly, the impacts to fitness and the Colville River delta are in various discoveries in Chukotka near Anadyr the potential for habituation have not stages of planning, permitting, and (Gazprom Neft 2004, p. 1). In addition been studied. Preliminary observations construction. It is very likely that within to these activities at the western edge of have been made on the Colville River the next 10 to 20 years at least 5 to 7 the Russian breeding area, reserves exist Delta, Alaska, where oil field satellite production pads feeding the but are not currently planned for development has occurred in yellow- existing central processing facility will development in the Laptev formation on billed loon nesting habitat. Yellow- be in operation, with some pads on the arctic coast east of the Lena River billed loons were surveyed during State lands on the delta and some on (USGS 2007, pp. 1–2). nesting and brood-rearing before (1993, adjacent Federal lands in NPR–A. We are not aware of any yellow-billed 1995–1997) and during (1998–2001) the Elsewhere in NPR–A the likelihood and loon surveys in the Taymyr, Timan- oil-facility-development phase; surveys timing of possible future development Pechora, and Yamal districts described are continuing in the oil production are more difficult to predict. BLM above; so we do not know whether or phase that began in 2000 (ABR Inc. estimates that exploratory activities take to what extent yellow-billed loon 2007, pp. 1–2; Johnson et al. 2008, p. i). roughly 10 years before construction breeding habitat overlaps with zones of Between 16 and 30 nests were identified begins (USDOI–BLM 2008c, p. 13), with industrial activity in this area. It is each year. No statistical comparisons roughly 70 years from the initiation of possible that the reported potential among phases are available, but the exploration until final field contraction at the western edge of the proportion of territories with nests and abandonment. Initial exploratory yellow-billed loon’s range in Russia nest success appeared roughly activities have commenced in some (Red Data Book of the Russian comparable before and during areas in NPR–A; exploration has yet to Federation 2001, p. 366) could have construction and during production. begin on some existing leased tracts resulted from the effects of resource Too few pairs (3) have been within 1.6 elsewhere; and other lands have not yet extraction in the region, but we have no km (1 mi) of facilities to allow been leased or offered for lease. Thus, evidence for or against this possibility. meaningful comparisons of potential yellow-billed loon habitat in the No data are available on potential effects disturbance among phases (ABR 2007, Colville River delta and adjacent NPR– of disturbance on yellow-billed loons, pp. 3–4). A varies in its potential for future oil and we know of no special protection to prevent disturbance of yellow-billed Potential disturbance and other and gas development, and the timing of habitat degradation on NPR–A oil fields development, where it occurs, will be loons or other nesting birds in Russian oil fields (Syroechkovskiy 2008, p. 1). will likely be mitigated by stipulations staggered starting with imminent and required operating procedures development on and near the Colville Likewise, we have no information on the possible impacts of oil spills, facility (ROPs) described in the RODs for the River delta, followed by exploration, Northwest and Northeast Planning construction, and production over a development, and lake-water withdrawals on yellow-billed loons in Areas and included in oil and gas leases period of several decades elsewhere, Russia. Therefore, the remainder of this for those areas (USDOI–BLM 1998, persisting for at least 70 years and section will focus on available Appendix B, pp. 29–43; USDOI–BLM possibly longer in various areas. information regarding potential impacts 2004a, Appendix B, pp. B–1–B–18; Terrestrial oil development is associated with oil and gas exploration USDOI–BLM 2008b, Appendix A, pp. ongoing, and likely to increase, at the and development in Alaska. 33–74). Most of the area leased is western edge of Russian yellow-billed The potential negative effects of subject to the performance-based loon breeding range. These areas have industrial development in yellow-billed stipulations and ROPs described here; never been systematically surveyed for loon nesting areas includes disturbance for tracts leased in 1999 and 2002 under loons, so the historical occurrence and caused by aircraft, vehicular traffic, the 1998 ROD, prescriptive stipulations degree to which development areas heavy-equipment use, maintenance and ROPs apply (USDOI–BLM 1998, overlaps areas used by loons is activities, and pedestrian traffic. Appendix B, pp. 29–43). When lessees unknown. On the Yamal Peninsula, the Disturbance to nesting birds from oil propose specific development plans for largest gas field is the Bovanenkovskeo infrastructure has been widely those tracts, there will be opportunities field, which is projected, beginning in discussed but poorly documented (NRC for the BLM to apply conservation 2011, to produce approximately 115 2003, p. 49; USDOI–BLM 2008a, pp. 4– measures for yellow-billed loons, as billion cubic meters (4 trillion cubic ft) 890, 4–891). Loons as a are appropriate. For tracts leased under of gas, which will be transported by new susceptible to disturbance, although more recent RODs (USDOI–BLM 2004a, railways and a 2,451-km (1,523-mi) long they sometimes habituate to predictable Appendix B, pp. B–1–B–18; USDOI– pipeline currently under construction disturbance (discussed in Vogel 1995, BLM 2008b, Appendix A, pp. 33–74), (Barents Observer 2008, p. 1). A pp. 15–18; Barr 1997, pp. 22–23; Evers ROP E–11 requires facility setbacks from liquefied-natural-gas plant is planned 2004, pp. 35–37; Earnst 2004, pp. 19, 31; lakes known to harbor nesting yellow- on the Kara Sea coast of the peninsula. Mills and Andres 2004, pp. 212–213; billed loons, and E–2 and K–2 require The Yuzhnoe-Khykchuyu oil field in the North 1994, p. 16). Human disturbance smaller setbacks for other water bodies. Timan-Pechora province near the port of can cause yellow-billed loons to The current ROP E–11 states that if Varandey on the is among abandon reproductive efforts or leave yellow-billed loons are found during the largest in Russia, and is planned as eggs or chicks unattended and exposed required aerial surveys, design and an anchor field for further development to predators or bad weather (Earnst location of facilities must minimize (ConocoPhillips 2008, p. 1). Major 2004, p. 19). Observations by Earnst disturbance; default mitigation is a 1- western Siberian oil fields in the (2004, p. 31) indicated that adults left mile buffer around nest sites and a 500- Pechora River basin of the Komi nests when an approaching human is as meter buffer around the remainder of

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the lake shoreline (USDOI–BLM 2004a, p. 31), a well-designed study is needed muds (ADEC 2007, p. 49). Most spills Appendix B, p. B–9; USDOI–BLM to determine the most appropriate buffer have been relatively small and caused 2008b, Appendix A, pp. 51–53). The distance between loon nesting lakes and minimal impacts to surrounding size of these buffers was determined in oil facilities. However, we believe that habitats or wildlife, although three consultation with the Service and loon current buffer distances are conservative major spills have occurred from the experts. Deviations to ROPs and and will protect loons from disturbance. North Slope segment of the Trans- stipulations can be authorized if it is We do not know how much Alaska Pipeline (NRC 2003, p. 47), and demonstrated that the conservation development will occur in NPR–A, nor a transit pipeline accident spilled 6,357 objective of the stipulation or ROP can do we know the timeline over which barrels (bbl) of crude oil in 2006 (ADEC be met, or if it is determined that no development will occur. In NPR–A, 2008, p. 1). It is difficult to predict the other options are available (USDOI– where 90 percent of yellow-billed loons likelihood of future spills, in part BLM 2008b, Appendix A, pp. 52–53). breeding on the ACP occur, we expect because technology continues to Such deviations are sometimes that adherence to current BLM improve. Based on previous spill rates, exercised (e.g., USDOI–BLM 2004b, p. regulations will ameliorate impacts by BLM estimates that development in NE 1033), but BLM has committed in requiring that planners build facilities NPR–A could result in more than 2,000 writing to close collaboration with the outside buffers or find other ways to small oil spills (less than 500 bbl), and Service in its evaluation of a deviation comparably minimize disturbance. approximately 3 large spills (greater request that may affect yellow-billed Terrestrial oil or fuel spills occur than 500 bbl) (USDOI–BLM 2008a, pp. loons (V. Galterio, in litt. 2008, p. 1). during oil and gas extraction activities 4–60–4–62); in the next 100 years, there Specifically, BLM has stated in writing from multiple sources, including well is a 4.2 percent chance of a very large that any exception or deviation would blowouts, pipeline leaks, failure of fuel (238,000 bbl, or 10-million-gal) blowout be required to meet the management storage tanks, and accidents oil spill in NPR–A (USDOI–BLM 2008a, objective of minimizing disturbance to transporting fuel. Spills of saline water p. 4–910). If, as expected, development the species and would, at a minimum, produced with oil or derived from is concentrated in specific areas that need to provide the same level of seawater used in oil recovery also occur overlap with high-density loon breeding protection that the default buffers frequently (NRC 2003, pp. 47, 230). habitat, the potential for oil spills provide (V. Galterio, in litt. 2008, p. 2). Marine oil spills may damage prey affecting some loon nesting lakes exists. This and other ROPs and stipulations populations, and air and boat traffic However, as discussed above and under are also discussed under Factor D. associated with oil and gas extraction Factor D, measures are in place in NPR– Varner (2008a, pp. 1–4) analyzed the offshore could affect yellow-billed loon A to lessen this potential. For example, likelihood that oil-field facilities placed habitat by disturbing loons so that they ROP E–11 requires minimizing randomly (i.e., without regard to loon decrease foraging success or avoid disturbance to loons using setbacks of distribution) on the landscape would disturbed areas. Both non-nesting and permanent infrastructure around nesting occur proximal to loon nesting or brood- breeding yellow-billed loons on lakes that would make spills less likely rearing areas. Using data from Stehn et Alaska’s ACP use marine areas of the to affect these lakes; other stipulations al. (2005, pp. 1–38) that identified lakes Beaufort and Chukchi Seas to forage and ROPs require minimizing the within NPR–A leased tracts that have a during the nesting season. In addition, potential for pipeline leaks and less than 30 percent likelihood of in spring yellow-billed loons gather in protecting fish-bearing water bodies yellow-billed loon presence (moderate- polynyas, ice leads, and open shorelines (USDOI–BLM 2008b, Appendix A, pp. high potential yellow-billed loon lakes) near river deltas offshore of breeding 33–74). and BLM’s projected development areas in Alaska and Canada prior to scenarios for NW and NE NPR–A, dispersing to nesting grounds. Here we Construction of roads, gravel pads, Varner (2008a, p. 4) estimated that 52 discuss effects of spills on loon habitat; and facilities on the North Slope of percent of 12 projected facilities would direct effects of oil spills on loon Alaska has affected freshwater flow and occur within the 1.6 km (1 mi) buffer of mortality are discussed under Factor E. drainage as a result of permafrost decay a moderate-high potential yellow-billed Negative effects are expected to result consequent to infrastructure placement, loon lake, and 38 percent would occur for bird habitats contacted by oil spills vegetation damage, or fluid extraction within a 500-m (1,640 ft) buffer. In other (USDOI–BLM 2008a, pp. 4–760, 4–916). and injection (NRC 2003, pp. 3, 10, 64– words, approximately half of projected Changes in freshwater chemistry or 72, 126–127). North (1994, p. 16) and developments would require additional pollutant loads due to oil spills North and Ryan (1989, p. 303) suggested consideration during site layout and associated with oil and gas development that permafrost decay consequent to design to avoid yellow-billed loon could render breeding habitats infrastructure placement and buffers. We note that this development unsuitable (NRC 2003, pp. 6–7, 73–74). disturbance of vegetation could cause projection is uncertain, and it is Oil or saline water spills could have breaching of rivers into yellow-billed possible that either a smaller or greater long-term effects on tundra waters by loon breeding lakes, rendering them number of facilities could actually be killing prey and shoreline vegetation unsuitable due to fluctuating water built. (NRC 2003, pp. 95, 119, 124–125, 230– levels (causing drowned nests) or In summary, based on our 231; USDOI–BLM 2008a, pp. 4–914, 4– increased turbidity (negatively affecting understanding of factors affecting nest 915), thereby reducing food availability foraging success). The requirement in success in other species and our and cover. ROP E–11 of a 1.6 km (1 mi) buffer knowledge of loon behavior, we have On Alaska’s North Slope oil fields, around nest sites and a 500-meter (1600- identified potential impacts of one of the most closely regulated oil ft) buffer around the remainder of the disturbance to loons in NPR–A. production areas in the world, there lake shoreline or an equally protective However, the only data on the effect of were 3,696 spills from oil production, alternative where no permanent oil development disturbance on yellow- pipeline, and oil exploration facilities infrastructure would occur (USDOI– billed loons are from the Colville River between July 1995 and June 2005 BLM 2004a, Appendix B, p. B–9; Delta, where small sample size and lack totaling more than 6.8 million liters (L) USDOI–BLM 2008b, Appendix A, pp. of controls or replicates make inference (1.8 million gal) of sea water, produced 51–53) will likely lessen the chances of difficult. As suggested by Earnst (2004, water, crude and diesel oil, and drilling such damage. It is possible that ice

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roads on breeding lakes could compact sometimes used, but it is more cost- Agreement for the Yellow-billed Loon lake ice and delay melting (USDOI–BLM effective to use treated sea water rather (Gavia adamsii),’’ making a commitment 1998, p. IV–3–b–1–b), thus delaying or than freshwater from lakes (Varner in to protect yellow-billed loons discouraging yellow-billed loon litt. 2008b, p. 1). BLM has included (Conservation Agreement 2006, p. 11) breeding, since loons require lakes to be potential use of lakes for waterflooding and, therefore, making it less likely that largely clear of ice before they in their consideration of environmental the State would allow such activities to commence nesting. There are currently effects of oil and gas development in occur if they might negatively affect no regulations which would prevent ice NPR–A (USDOI–BLM 2008a, pp. 4–31– loons. roads on breeding lakes. 4–32), but at present such use is In NPR–A, water-withdrawal It is possible that lake-water depletion considered unlikely, particularly stipulations and ROPs are specifically or drawdown could affect considering present stipulations and designed to protect and monitor fish- connectedness, depth, or melt date of ROPs protecting lake fish and wildlife bearing lakes. The current Federal yellow-billed loon nesting or brood- habitat (Varner in litt. 2008b, p. 1). (BLM) requirements for NE NPR–A, rearing lakes and could render such Injection water demands can be met by based on State of Alaska permit areas unsuitable as breeding habitats. produced formation water (i.e., water regulations, allow up to 15 percent of Fluctuations in lake water levels during within the pores of rock) once lake volume below ice cover to be nesting could cause nests to flood, or production begins (Varner in litt. 2008b, removed from lakes deeper than 2.1 m alternately could leave nests stranded p. 1; USDOI–BLM 2008a, pp. 4–31–4– (7 ft) with ‘‘sensitive’’ fish species (i.e., away from the water during incubation, 32). fish other than ninespine stickleback making them more vulnerable to The actual amount of water and Alaska blackfish) and up to 30 depredation or abandonment (e.g., withdrawn from lakes is highly variable percent of lake volume from lakes Kertell 1996, pp. 356–366 for Pacific and dependent upon the type of water deeper than 1.5 m (5 ft) with non- loons; Fair 1979, pp. 57–63 for common use. To build ice roads, the amount sensitive fish species; up to 35 percent loons; see also discussion in Earnst taken from a given lake may be lower may be removed from lakes without fish 2004, p. 19). Earnst (2004, p. 19) than allowed limits because it is not (USDOI–BLM 2008b, Appendix A, pp. proposed that yellow-billed loons might efficient to transport water a long 44–45). Permits are based on a site- be less adapted to fluctuating water distance; in contrast, lakes used for specific analysis. At present, there are levels than other loons, in part because facility use or drilling are pumped more no requirements to prevent pumping of the short arctic summer does not allow frequently and throughout the year known loon-nesting lakes, and no the opportunity to re-nest or delay nest (Hinzman et al. 2006, pp. 14, 56; Baker requirements for direct measurements of initiation. Water withdrawals could Inc. 2007, p. 4; Moulton 2007, p. 11). effects on lake biota, including fish. have additional impacts on habitat Most pumped lakes monitored by oil However, in a letter to the Service suitability by affecting fish populations companies on the ACP have recharged emphasizing the BLM’s commitment to that breeding yellow-billed loons completely in spring from snowmelt or supporting conservation of the yellow- depend upon for food. river flooding; however, most removals billed loon, the BLM State Director for Usually taken by pumping in winter, were much less than the 30-percent Alaska expressly clarified the ROPs and water from lakes is used in arctic oil volume permitted at the time by State of stipulations in NPR–A leases fields for exploratory drilling, as well as Alaska regulations (Hinzman et al. 2006, concerning water withdrawal. winter road and pad construction and p. 143; URS 2001, p. 4–1; Baker 2007, Underscoring the importance of facility use. From 1999 through 2006, pp. 77–79; Baker 2008, pp. 7, 38). Two continued collaboration with the approximately 2 billion L (513 million adjacent lakes monitored at Alpine Service (V. Galterio, in litt. 2008, pp. 1– gal) of water from 126 lakes were used Development showed different patterns 3), the State Director explained that it to drill 20 wells and construct 23 ice in 2007: One recharged adequately from will require a water-quality monitoring drill pads and roads in the NW NPR–A estimated snowmelt runoff given the plan to be developed that will outline (USDOI–BLM 2008a, p. 3–26). During allowable withdrawal volume of 30 specific physical and biological water- development, water is needed for percent; the other lake did not do so, quality parameters to be collected in drilling and facility use. According to and would likely be below required lakes harboring yellow-billed loons (V. BLM, ‘‘Drilling water demand is levels if river flooding did not occur Galterio, in litt. 2008, pp. 1–3). We estimated to be 21,000 to 63,000 gal per (Baker 2008, p. 38). believe these requirements will protect day, or 850,000 gal per well. Water We examined whether current yellow-billed loon lakes from demand is estimated to be 100 gallons regulations will likely be adequate to deleterious effects of water withdrawals. per day per person. Potable water protect loon nesting lakes from See discussion under Factor D, demand would drop after 2 to 4 drilling excessive water withdrawal. Ninety Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory seasons, when the major construction percent of yellow-billed loon nesting Mechanisms. phase would be finished. range on the ACP is under BLM In conclusion, we have identified Approximately 160 persons would be management in NPR–A. Outside NPR– several mechanisms by which on site during the production and A, the Alpine development on the development could affect yellow-billed development phases for each CPF Colville River Delta is the only set of oil loons, including disturbance, oil spills, (central processing facility) and 4 to 6 facilities in ACP yellow-billed loon facility development, and lake-water satellite fields (S. Rothwell, nesting range under sole State of Alaska withdrawals. Although we believe ConocoPhillips, pers. comm.). Drilling- management. At this facility, the State onshore oil and gas activity is likely to water demand over the 20-year increased the 15-percent limit on water increase in Alaskan and Russian production life of the field (largely for withdrawal from one lake with nesting breeding grounds in the foreseeable workover operations and infill drilling) yellow-billed loons to 30 percent future, we do not believe these activities would likely be less than the 21,000 gal because ‘‘the previous criterion imposed will result in significant population- per day estimated above’’ (USDOI–BLM a severe constraint on the project’’ level impacts. Although a large 2008a, p. 4–30). (Moulton 2007, p. 4). However, since proportion of high-density yellow-billed During production, waterflooding that decision, the State of Alaska has loon nesting habitat on Alaska’s ACP (injecting water into the reservoir) is participated in the ‘‘Conservation coincides with areas of high potential

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for oil and gas development in NPR–A, degradation of breeding grounds deleterious anthropogenic influences on the BLM, through stipulations and ROPs throughout its range from oil and gas marine environments, leading to mass required to be included in oil and gas development is not a threat to the mortality of fish and invertebrates, and leases, has established a number of yellow-billed loon now or in the major changes in community structure mechanisms to protect yellow-billed foreseeable future. (Diaz and Rosenberg 2008, p. 926). Large loons from the effects of oil and gas ecosystem effects of eutrophication and Temperate Marine Habitat: Degradation activities in NPR–A, if development hypoxia have been documented in of Marine Habitats in Migration and on ultimately does overlap with yellow- coastal waters of Japan (e.g., Ueda et al. Wintering Grounds billed loon breeding habitat. We believe 2000, pp. 906–913; Suzuki 2001, pp. that disturbance and spills will likely be The marine environment is clearly 291–302; Kodama et al. 2002, pp. 303– minimized through requirements that important for yellow-billed loons, as 313), Korea (Lim et al. 2006, p. 1525), facilities be built at least 1.6 km (1 mi) that is where they spend their first 3 and the East China Sea (Chen et al. from nests, and 500 m (1,640 ft) from years, and subsequently at least 8 2007, p. 399). However, these effects are lake shorelines, or an equally protective months per year. Wintering areas along seasonal, occurring more often in alternative. The BLM and the State of the coast of Alaska and British summer, when adult breeding yellow- Alaska have committed to work with the Columbia, Canada, are relatively billed loons would have migrated from Service to minimize impacts through pristine. Two important wintering areas the area. These effects also vary water quality monitoring. With current for yellow-billed loons, the western geographically, with most severe dead projections of approximately 12 Pacific Ocean coastal waters of the zones occurring at mouths of facilities in NPR–A, we believe the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan, and the watersheds with large population current regulations and close North and Norwegian Seas, have centers or that deliver large quantities of consultation with the Service are recently been identified among the nutrients. sufficient to protect yellow-billed loons ocean ecosystems with the greatest Unsustainable fishing practices, from population-level effects of oil and human impacts, and therefore including overfishing, indiscriminate gas development on the ACP. Based on degradation, of any in the world trawling, and use of pesticides for the best available information we find (Halpern et al. 2008, p. 949). Possible fishing (Teng et al. 2005, pp. 34–35), that oil and gas development in the ACP effects of human activities on yellow- have resulted in significant changes in is not a threat to the yellow-billed loon billed loon marine migrating and the fisheries of the intensively exploited now or in the foreseeable future. wintering habitats include depletion of Yellow Sea and other Asian fisheries. On western Russian breeding the prey base through a variety of These changes include significant grounds, we do not have information on mechanisms, including pollution- declines in fish populations and whether yellow-billed loon distribution induced hypoxia and destructive fishing changes in community structure, with overlaps with zones of industrial practices, as discussed below. Potential larger (and commercially important) activity. Due to lack of study, regulation, effects on loons from depletion of the species replaced by smaller (and less and available information, the winter prey base include reduced body valuable) fish (Teng et al. 2005, p. 33). environmental impacts of industrial condition, which could result in Unsustainable exploitation of marine development in the Russian yellow- mortality or reduced breeding natural resources is expected to billed loon breeding range are not well propensity. continue over the next 20 years, causing understood. Because the bulk of the Effects of marine oil spills, other fisheries production to decrease by 30– Russian breeding population appears to effects of marine oil and gas 50 percent (Teng et al. 2005, p. 35). occur in eastern Siberia (Yakutia and development, and potential direct Degradation of temperate marine Chukotka), where little industrial effects of contaminants on yellow-billed wintering and migrating yellow-billed development is occurring or planned, loons are discussed under Factor E. loon habitats could deplete the yellow- most potential impacts of industrial Asian seas, where 24 out of 29 Alaska- billed loon prey base, which could development in Russia are limited to the breeding yellow-billed loons with cause reduced body condition, western edge of the range. Based on the satellite transmitters wintered (Schmutz mortality, fewer birds migrating, and best available information, we find that in litt. 2008, p. 11), are undergoing reduced breeding propensity. Although oil and gas development is not a threat environmental stress. The United information exists regarding pollution to the yellow-billed loon in its Russian Nations Global International Waters occurrence and effects on fisheries in breeding range now or in the foreseeable Assessment (GIWA) Regional temperate marine waters in Asian future. Assessment of the Yellow Sea described wintering areas, we do not know which We expect large spatial and temporal Yellow Sea fisheries as threatened by species yellow-billed loons eat there. variation in the level of oil and gas ‘‘pollution and loss of biomass, We therefore do not know whether development activities on yellow-billed biodiversity and habitat, resulting from yellow-billed loon prey species have loon breeding habitat, but most such extensive economic development in the been affected. Indeed, documented habitat will remain undeveloped in the coastal zone’’ (Teng et al. 2005, p. 33), changes in community structure from foreseeable future. We do not expect caused by a tenth of the world’s humans large finfish to smaller forage fish could terrestrial oil and gas development to (approximately 600 million) living in benefit yellow-billed loons, as their diet occur in the Canadian breeding range, surrounding watersheds. For example, items are relatively small. Further, and Russian oil and gas development is the East China Sea (adjacent to the although pollution and declines in likely to be confined to the western edge Yellow Sea) is undergoing ‘‘severe fisheries are documented in Asian of the breeding range there. In Alaska’s environmental degradation’’ from inputs Pacific wintering areas, the information NPR–A, some areas are likely to be of inorganic nitrogen, phosphate, oil is inadequate to assess what proportion developed, particularly at the eastern hydrocarbons, organic matter, and of the habitat or wintering loons is edge of NE NPR–A near the Alpine heavy metals (Li and Daler 2004, p. affected. We also have no data on development. In Alaska, we believe that 107). A significant effect of pollution yellow-billed loon mortality due to existing required protective measures inputs in aquatic systems are zones of habitat degradation in wintering areas or will protect the yellow-billed loon from eutrophication-induced hypoxia (‘‘dead migration routes, or on body condition impacts of development. We find that zones’’), which are among the most at any season.

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In summary, yellow-billed loon and thawing permafrost, and decreasing internal drainage following permafrost mortality from marine pollution has not extent of land underlain by permafrost degradation between 1950 and 2000. been documented. The only other (Clow and Urban 2008, p. 3; Walsh et Because a limited number of loon source of information we have to al. 2005, p. 210; Jorgenson et al. 2006, surveys have been conducted on the evaluate this factor is population trend p. 1; Jorgenson et al. 2008, p. 1). All of Seward Peninsula, we do not know information from the ACP. Yellow- these could interact via feedback loops, whether these changes are affecting billed loons breeding on the ACP as described below. yellow-billed loons there. Riordan et al. migrate to Asian wintering grounds With respect to the yellow-billed (2006, p. 1) observed ponds shrinking (Schmutz in litt. 2008, p. 1). If loon, we are most concerned about throughout subarctic Alaska, and deterioration of these wintering areas effects of potential climate-induced attributed this drying to permafrost were resulting in population-level changes on morphology of breeding warming, as well as increased effects on yellow-billed loons, we would lakes and prey fish communities. In evaporation during a warmer and longer expect to see evidence of a large northern areas, such as along the arctic growing season. The arctic zone of population decline on the Alaska coast in most of the yellow-billed loon’s continuous permafrost has relatively breeding grounds. Instead, survey trends breeding habitat (Siberia, Alaska’s ACP, cold air temperatures and is considered indicate a slightly declining or stable and most of the Canadian breeding relatively stable. However, Clow and population. We do not have information range), permafrost is continuous, and Urban (2008, p. 3) measured increases indicating that the current effects to the could be hundreds of meters (ft) deep. for a total average warming of 3.5 K species from the degradation of However, some habitat extends south of (kelvin) (3.5 degrees C, 6.3 degrees F) temperate marine waters will change in this region to areas of discontinuous during 1989–2007, and Jorgenson et al. the future. Therefore, we find that permafrost, which is more susceptible to (2006, p. 1) observed a recent, abrupt degradation of temperate marine waters the effects of climate change (Seward increase in the extent and rate of ice is not a threat to yellow-billed loons Peninsula, southern part of the wedge degradation on Alaska’s ACP. Ice now or in the foreseeable future. Canadian range). Yellow-billed loon wedges are 2–4 m deep polygons of ice, breeding habitat on the arctic coast more than 3,000 years old, occurring Climate Change depends on a unique hydrological just below the vegetation layer in ice- While climate change impacts to some system, which is in turn dependent rich regions of the arctic. Both effects environmental features (e.g., sea ice) can upon cold temperatures resulting in were coincident with record warm air be reliably assessed to some degree into continuous and stable permafrost temperatures in the late 1990s. the future, assessment of climate- underlying perched (i.e., isolated above Permafrost warming and thawing is induced changes to yellow-billed loon the groundwater) lakes (Rovansek et al. predicted to continue as the arctic habitat in arctic terrestrial and 1996, p. 316) and relatively consistent climate warms (Meehl et al. 2007, p. freshwater systems and arctic and weather patterns, such as most 772). Zhang et al. (2007, p. 443) temperate marine systems is complex, precipitation deposited in winter as simulated changes in Canada’s with highly variable predictions of snow, and spring ice-jams and floods permafrost distribution using a model effects. Current models suggest that contributing to lake recharge (Prowse et driven by six general circulation global temperatures are likely to al. 2006, pp. 330–331). A community of models. They predicted that active layer continue to rise for up to 50 years, even fish species has adapted to this system, (the top layer of soil that thaws in if greenhouse gas emissions were curbed overwintering in deeper lakes, but also summer) thickness would increase, the today (Meehl et al. 2007, p. 749). Below, entering or leaving some lakes during boundary between continuous and we evaluate the available information spring river floods. discontinuous permafrost would move on possible climate-change effects in north, and there would be significant Morphology of Breeding Lakes these systems that could affect yellow- impacts on surface and ground billed loons. Permafrost thawing could reduce the hydrology. Stendel et al. (2007, pp. 203, size, number, or suitability of lakes that I. Arctic Habitats 211) used a high-resolution regional yellow-billed loons use for nesting and climate model to predict changes to There is strong evidence of ongoing brood-rearing, especially near the permafrost in eastern Siberia over the impacts of climate change in the arctic, southern boundary of continuous and next century, and concluded that under all of which are predicted to continue or discontinuous permafrost. When near- the various modeling scenarios accelerate in the next century (Anisimov surface permafrost thaws, unfrozen reviewed by the Intergovernmental et al. 2007, pp. 662–663; Christensen et channels develop between and below Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the al. 2007, pp. 902–903), although with water bodies, allowing subsurface active layer depth would increase up to varying degrees of uncertainty and drainage to occur. In addition, 1 m (3.1 ft) along the arctic coast. These regional variation (Reist et al. 2006b, p. permafrost degradation around edges of predictions suggest that some breeding 381) in effects on different biotic lakes near river channels can cause lakes, particularly in the southern part communities, hydrology, and lakes to be breached and drained (Mars of the yellow-billed loon’s range, could geomorphology. Impacts include rising and Houseknecht 2007, p. 586). be altered, but overall effects will air temperatures (Anisimov et al. 2001, Permafrost degradation has already depend on the magnitude and direction summarized in Anisimov et al. 2007, p. affected lakes in some areas at the of other changes (e.g., precipitation). 656) at approximately twice the global southern boundary of continuous Arctic sea-ice loss accelerates air rate (McBean et al. 2005, p. 39), permafrost. In Siberia, L.C. Smith et al. temperature warming, which, in turn, declining summer sea ice (Richter- (2005, p.1) documented a decline in increases permafrost warming. Recently, Menge et al. 2008, p. 1), increasing lake abundance and area in zones of Lawrence et al. (2008, p. 1) evaluated coastal erosion (Mars and Houseknecht discontinuous permafrost. Yoshikawa how periods of abrupt rapid sea-ice loss 2007, p. 585; Rachold et al. 2002, cited and Hinzman (2003, p. 151) affect terrestrial arctic climate and in Walsh et al. 2005, p. 233), rising sea documented numerous shrinking ponds ground thermal state in the Community levels (Walsh et al. 2005, pp. 232–234), on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula, at the Climate System Model. They found that a small increasing trend in precipitation southern boundary of the yellow-billed arctic land warming trends would be 3.5 (McBean et al. 2005, p. 39), warming loon’s range, due to an increase in times greater during periods of rapid

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sea-ice loss than otherwise predicted for (Walsh et al. 2005, p. 188; Prowse 2006, may have low dissolved oxygen levels, the 21st century. They predicted that pp. 330–331). In contrast, increased allowing only species adapted to these such a warming period would increase summer rainfall will likely be lost to low levels, such as sticklebacks and ground heat accumulation substantially, stream flow, increased subsurface Alaska blackfish, to survive. Shallow increasing the vulnerability of storage, and increased evaporation in lakes that freeze to the bottom permafrost to degradation (Lawrence et warmer air temperatures (Rovansek et sometimes maintain fish populations al. 2008, p. 1). The 2007 arctic summer al. 1996, p. 311; Bowling et al. 2003, p. via replenishment from spring river sea-ice extent was a new record 2–1). Earlier snow melt from increasing floods. If ice thickness declines in a minimum since satellite measurements air temperatures and the predicted warmer climate, deep lakes could have began in 1979, with a large reduction in increase in winter rain events could increased oxygen, allowing less tolerant area compared to the previous record set decrease large breakup events in the species to overwinter, and shallower in 2005 (Richter-Menge et al. 2008, p. 1), spring, perhaps reducing lake lakes would be able to harbor and the 2008 extent was similar replenishment from ice-jam flooding. overwintering fish. Conversely, shallow (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Overall, it is possible that lakes at the lakes might lose replenishment with http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ southern boundary of continuous decreased spring flooding (Hershey et index.html). permafrost could be affected, that this al. 2005, pp. 39, 52). Fish habitat is also Aside from causing increased land boundary will move north, and that dependent on basin shape, since warming trends, loss of sea ice could eventually even northern areas of shallow littoral zones are needed to affect freshwater breeding lakes adjacent continuous permafrost could experience provide food for fish; lower water levels to marine shorelines through breaching changes that will negatively affect lakes. might alter or diminish littoral habitats. and increased salinity, because For the yellow-billed loons, these effects Fish habitat characteristics are reflected shorelines would no longer be protected could mean reduced habitat in the in yellow-billed loon habitat preferences from storms by summer and fall southern part of its range in the near- modeled by Earnst et al. (2006). Loons shorefast ice (Mars and Houseknecht term (an uncertain period, but perhaps were found more often on medium or 2007, p. 586). Coastal erosion rates are the next several decades), and deep lakes than on shallow (less than 2 increasing, with land loss rates in some eventually, in the northern parts of its m) (less than 6.6 ft) lakes that freeze to of Alaska doubling in the last half range. At present, however, models have the bottom, and for shallow lakes, loons century (Mars and Houseknecht 2007, p. not been developed to make reliable were more likely to be present if the 585), and parts of the Laptev Sea coast predictions about the timing or extent of lake was connected to streams or other in arctic Russia are retreating at an such habitat reductions and associated lakes. Proportion of shoreline with average rate of 2.5 m (8.2 ft) per year impacts on the species. Although vegetation, indicating littoral habitat, (Rachold et al. 2002, cited in Walsh et permafrost degradation has already was a positive indicator of yellow-billed al. 2005, p. 233), but it is not known occurred in southern parts of the loon presence. Loons preferred both 2 to whether yellow-billed loon breeding breeding range, such as the Seward 4 m (6.6 to 13.1 ft) deep lakes and lakes in this region are close enough to Peninsula, there have been no observed greater than 4 m (greater than 13.1 ft) the coast to be affected. These effects are effects on loon breeding lakes, and we deep lakes, but because the latter are exacerbated by rising global sea levels. do not have trend information for that rare on the North Slope, 64 percent of The greatest sea-level increases over the population (which could provide some yellow-billed loon sightings were on next century are projected for the arctic, indication of the population impacts of lakes 2 to 4 m (6.6 to 13.1 ft) deep although with much uncertainty permafrost degradation). Therefore, (Earnst et al. 2006, p. 235). In summary, (Christensen et al. 2007, p. 914; Walsh based on currently available information although climate change could have et al. 2005, pp. 232–234). we find that climate-induced changes to negative effects on prey communities, The amount and timing of the morphology of the yellow-billed there could be positive effects. Not only precipitation also influences the loon’s breeding lake habitats are not a is there considerable uncertainty as to permafrost active layer, and is predicted threat to the species now, and we the possible effects to prey communities to increase in the arctic (Christensen et cannot reasonably predict that they will from climate change, there is also al. 2007, pp. 902–906), with a greater become a threat to the species in the substantial uncertainty about the timing percentage increase in winter and less future. in summer. Increased snow cover in over which changes will occur. winter is likely to contribute to Prey Fish Communities Scientists have not yet developed the permafrost warming, as snow limits heat Climate change could alter yellow- specific predictive models and exchange between the atmosphere and billed loon prey fish communities in empirical research to improve our the ground; significant snow cover breeding lakes; species potentially understanding of these changes and keeps the ground warmer than the air affected include ninespine sticklebacks, enable us to predict the timing with (Stieglitz et al. 2003, p. 1). Predicted Alaska blackfish, and least cisco which they might occur. increased frequency of rain-on-snow (considered among the most vulnerable In addition to breeding lakes, yellow- events in Alaska and eastern Siberia to extirpation through changes in billed loons in summer use shallow (Rennert et al. 2008, p. 4) would species composition) (Wrona et al. 2006, nearshore marine waters (less than 10 m exacerbate the warming effect on p. 413). We are uncertain, however, (33 ft), roughly within 20 km (12.4 mi) permafrost, as latent heat release from a about the form or timing that potential of shore) adjacent to mainland habitats single large rain-on-snow event can effects on fish communities might have and near barrier islands (Earnst 2004, p. constrain the soil temperature to 0 on yellow-billed loons due to the 7). Little is known about the prey degrees C (32 degrees F) for months interaction of factors influencing species that yellow-billed loons use in (Putkonen and Roe 2002, p. 1,188). community composition. Fish species these habitats, although they are known There could also be direct effects of vary with lake depth and resulting ice to eat a variety of species in winter changes in precipitation on lakes used thickness. Shallow (less than 2 m) (less marine habitats (see Feeding Habits, by yellow-billed loons. Increased winter than 6.6 ft) lakes that freeze to the above; also reviewed in North 1994, p. precipitation could provide more spring bottom cannot harbor overwintering 7 and Earnst 2004, pp. 9–10). Changes floodwater to recharge lake basins fish, and even somewhat deeper lakes in arctic marine ecosystems, including

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increased primary production, Shipping Traffic changes on yellow-billed loons or their introduction of new species, and habitats. population shifts in existing species We also evaluated the potential effects In arctic areas, there is strong could occur as the climate warms (Perry of increased disturbance and oil spills to evidence that coastal erosion is et al. 2005, p. 1,912; Behrenfeld et al. arctic yellow-billed loon habitat from occurring, and some evidence for 2006, p. 752; Reist et al. 2006a, pp. 370– increased shipping traffic, as a result of breaching of freshwater lakes adjacent to 380). These changes to summer marine summer and autumn sea-ice loss, coasts, but little or no information on prey communities would be complex, throughout arctic marine waters near whether these environmental changes and the form of potential new species loon breeding areas. Because of the sea- have affected yellow-billed loon assemblages cannot be reliably ice decline discussed above, in 2008 breeding lakes. While there is strong predicted at this time. both the Northwest passage and the so- evidence that climate change is causing called Northeast Passage, or Northern permafrost loss, no information is Increased ocean acidification as a Sea Route, along the Russian arctic coast available on how this could affect result of increasing levels of were ice free likely for the first time freshwater lake morphology and the atmospheric carbon dioxide could affect since the last ice age 125,000 years ago yellow-billed loon prey base in the marine food webs, but the form, (NSIDC 2008). As the extent of arctic sea future. Based on the best available data, magnitude, and timing of such effects ice in the summer has declined and the we believe that important polynyas and are unknown. Due to limited research duration of ice-free periods has ice-lead spring staging habitat are likely and understanding of the processes increased, interest in shipping within to continue to exist in the foreseeable involved (Zeebe et al. 2008, p. 52), it is and through arctic waters has increased future. While ocean acidification will not possible to predict effects on loon (Brigham and Ellis 2004, p. 2). This likely have long-term effects on marine prey species from ocean acidification at potential increase in shipping could communities, we do not know how it this time. affect yellow-billed loons through will affect loons. We believe the effects Therefore, as discussed above, due to habitat degradation, disturbance, or fuel of increased shipping in arctic seas will a paucity of information and models spills. However, we have not found any be negligible because yellow-billed available to reliably predict effects of reliable predictions about the location, loons are widely dispersed across climate-induced changes to yellow- type, and amount of shipping that might breeding and migrating landscapes. billed loon prey species assemblages in occur as ice-free periods increase. In II. Temperate Habitats breeding lake and marine habitats, we addition, the wide distribution and low find that climate-induced changes to density of yellow-billed loons in arctic Global ocean temperatures increased yellow-billed loon prey species is not a marine areas during the breeding season (0.1 degrees C (0.2 degrees F) from 1961 to 2003, although with some cooling threat to this species now or in the makes it unlikely that the population since 2003; Bindoff et al. 2007, p. 387), foreseeable future. would be at increased risk if shipping and effects on primary productivity and traffic were to increase. Because we are dissolved oxygen varied with latitude. Polynyas and Ice Leads uncertain about the magnitude of Primary productivity in warm, low- shipping traffic increases and because We also considered whether polynyas latitude oceans declines as upper-ocean the low density of loons in the and ice leads, both of which provide temperature increases, while warmer environment makes them less feeding and staging areas for yellow- temperature at high latitudes increases vulnerable to vessel accidents or billed loons in spring before the productivity and decreases oxygen disturbance, we find that increased breeding season, were likely to levels (Behrenfeld et al. 2006, p. 752; arctic shipping is not a threat to yellow- disappear as the arctic climate changes. Bindoff et al. 2007, p. 400). Arctic sea ice is projected to decline billed loons now or in the foreseeable For the yellow-billed loon wintering most, and surface air temperatures future. at low latitudes in the Yellow Sea and increase most, in summer and fall In summary, our evaluation of the Japan (East) Sea, a drop in primary (Walsh 2008, p. S19). In 2007, there was climate-change effects on arctic yellow- productivity might mean decreased prey a record sea-ice minimum in the arctic billed loon habitats included availability. However, as already in September, and the Chukchi Sea did documented and predicted climate- observed in northern environments (e.g., not freeze until early December, but an induced changes to various features of Perry et al. 2005, pp. 1,912–1,915), advancing ice field covered most of the the environment, followed by marine , including yellow-billed eastern Bering Sea shelf by mid-January hypothetical but reasonable loons, might shift north to colder, more 2008. A subsequent near record suppositions about possible alterations productive waters if winter sea ice is not maximum ice extent occurred in March to habitats important to yellow-billed a barrier. As noted for northern marine 2008, and the Bering Sea was not ice loons. There are no data to suggest that species (e.g., Perry et al. 2005, p. 1,914) free until almost July 2008 (Overland climate-induced changes documented to the movements of species as a result of and Stabenow 2008, p. 2). Overland and date have resulted in breeding-habitat climate change will likely be complex, Stabenow (2008, p. 5) predicted that changes, and based on the stable or so predicting the form of new species although arctic sea ice will continue to slightly declining trend on the ACP, it assemblages is difficult. decrease seasonally in late summer and does not appear that these changes have Potential expansion of oxygen- fall, sea ice will still form in winter, affected the yellow-billed loon deficient ‘‘dead zones’’ in Asian coastal extending south to the Bering Sea. If this population there. At this time, we are waters where yellow-billed loons winter projection is correct, polynyas and ice unable to predict potential future depends partly on how climate change leads should continue to provide changes to yellow-billed loons and their affects water-column stratification (Diaz productive spring habitat for yellow- habitats discussed above, because, in and Rosenberg 2008, p. 929). Warming billed loons, even as the arctic climate addition to uncertainty about the ocean temperatures could increase continues to warm. Therefore, we find magnitude, direction, and timing of stratification, deepening the depletion that loss of polynyas and ice lead climate-induced changes to the of oxygen, but increased storminess, habitats is not a threat to yellow-billed environment, no empirical data exist such as hurricanes, could increase loons now or in the foreseeable future. regarding the effects of those potential mixing and thereby lessen stratification.

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Changes in rainfall patterns could Researchers seeking to understand the infrastructure, which is used as nesting change freshwater and nutrient inputs. life history of yellow-billed loons have platforms or is associated with food At this time, available data on the implanted 29 yellow-billed loons with sources, and so predation might be effects of climate change on dead zones satellite transmitters to date (19 birds on expected to increase as development in in winter marine habitats of the yellow- the ACP and 10 birds on the Seward yellow-billed loon nesting habitat billed loon are uncertain. Peninsula, Alaska; Schmutz in litt. increases (NRC 2003, p. 6; Earnst 2004, In summary, climate change effects on 2008). This research is permitted by the p. 19). However, in Alaska, NPR–A ROP the temperate-latitude wintering habitat Service under the Migratory Bird Treaty A–2 and A–8 require control of waste of the yellow-billed loon include Act (MBTA) and by the Alaska and other measures to prevent attracting increases in ocean temperature and Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) wildlife to infrastructure (USDOI–BLM decreases in primary productivity and under State law. Although it is 2008b, Appendix A, pp. 37, 41–42), dissolved oxygen levels, which could reasonably likely that there could be reducing the risks associated with future potentially affect prey fish communities heightened risks of mortality and development. We do not know whether and their distribution. The magnitude reduced productivity in individual birds similar regulations would be and form of these effects are highly implanted with transmitters, the implemented in Canada should uncertain, but would most likely number of loons in this study is not development occur there. The extent of involve a northward shift of prey sufficient to cause population-level infrastructure increase in Russian species, which could be mirrored by effects. yellow-billed loon nesting habitats, and their predators, such as wintering We do not have any evidence of risks accompanying regulation, is unknown. yellow-billed loons. Therefore, while we to yellow-billed loons from In conclusion, we note that no large conclude that the effects of climate overutilization for commercial, disease-related mortality events have change will be widespread and will recreational, scientific, or educational been documented for yellow-billed likely have some impact on yellow- purposes, and we have no reason to loons. Indeed, yellow-billed loons might billed loons in temperate habitats, we believe this factor will become a threat be relatively protected from avian find that climate-induced changes in the to the species in the future. Therefore, disease mass mortality events that are temperate marine habitat are not a threat we find that overutilization for more common in other water birds to the yellow-billed loon now or in the commercial, recreational, scientific or because of the loon’s dispersed foreseeable future. educational purposes is not a threat to distribution and relatively solitary There are multiple hypothetical the yellow-billed loon now or in the habits. We have no reason to believe mechanisms associated with climate foreseeable future. that disease outbreaks will increase or change that could affect loons and their will have more severe effects on yellow- Factor C: Disease or Predation breeding and non-breeding habitats. billed loons in the future. Nest Unlike documented and predicted Loons are susceptible to avian predation might affect current declines in sea ice, an obligate habitat diseases, including avian cholera (from productivity, but population-level for other arctic species such as polar Pasteurella multocida), aspergillosis effects are more likely to results from bears (Ursus maritimus), we lack (from Aspergillus fumigatus), and avian decreases in adult survival (see predictive models on how climate botulism (from Clostridium botulinum) Population Resiliency, above). change will affect yellow-billed loon (Friend and Franson 1999, pp. 79, 130, Moreover, due to regulations associated terrestrial, freshwater, and marine 274), but we are not aware of any large with infrastructure development that habitats. Manifestations of climate- disease-related die-offs in yellow-billed also target increasing human safety, we mediated changes throughout arctic and loons. Loons are susceptible to avian believe that nest predation is unlikely to temperate yellow-billed loon habitats influenza, but in Alaska, none of six cause population-level effects in the will emerge as models continue to be loons sampled, including two yellow- future, at least in Alaska and Canada; no refined and effects are documented, but billed loons, tested positive for avian information is available that would at this time the timing, magnitude, and influenza viruses in 2006 (USFWS/ indicate future effects of such net effect of the impacts are uncertain. USGS 2007, pp. 1–93; Y. Gillies in litt. development in Russia. Therefore, we In our analysis of Factor A, we 2008, p. 1), and worldwide the highly find that neither disease nor predation identified and evaluated the risks to the pathogenic H5N1 has not been detected is a threat to the yellow-billed loon now yellow-billed loon’s habitats, including: in loons (http://www.who.int/csr/ or in the foreseeable future. Oil and gas development (i.e., disease/avian_influenza/en/, accessed Factor D: Inadequacy of Existing disturbance, changes in freshwater 11/24/2008). Regulatory Mechanisms chemistry and pollutant loads, and Predation on adult yellow-billed changes in freshwater hydrology); loons is thought to be uncommon, but To determine if existing regulatory pollution; overfishing; and climate predation on nests on the ACP has been mechanisms protect yellow-billed loons, change. Based on our review of the best attributed as the primary cause of egg we evaluated existing international and available information, we find that the loss and therefore reduced productivity United States conventions, agreements, present or threatened destruction, in some years (Earnst 2004, p. 22). and laws for the specific protection of modification, or curtailment of the Yellow-billed loon nest predators yellow-billed loons or their marine and yellow-billed loon’s habitat or range is include glaucous gull (Larus terrestrial habitats in the countries not a threat to the species now or in the hyperboreus), parasitic jaeger where yellow-billed loons winter, foreseeable future. (Stercorarius parasiticus), and arctic fox migrate, or breed. In July 2008, we sent (Alopex lagopus); pomarine jaeger letters to national wildlife or natural Factor B: Overutilization for (Stercorarius pomarinus), common resource agencies in Canada, China, Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or raven (Corvus corax), snowy Japan, North Korea, Norway, Republic Educational Purposes (Nyctea scandiaca), red fox (Vulpes of Korea (), and the Russian Subsistence harvest, as well as, fulva), and grizzly bear (Ursus arctos Federation, asking for information about bycatch of loons during commercial and horribilis) also predate nests (North ongoing management measures and any subsistence fishing are discussed under 1994, p. 11; Earnst 2004, p. 22). Many conservation and management strategies Factor E. of these predators are attracted to being developed to protect the species.

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We received a formal response from the Furthermore, these deficiencies have agreements between the Russian government of Canada, and an informal contributed to environmental impacts or Federation and the Korean Republic, response from a government biologist in threats to biodiversity in sectors other and Japan and China, respectively (Red the Russian Federation (discussed than fisheries management’’ (UNDP/ Data Book of Kamchatka 2006, p. 92). below). GEF 2007, p. 80). We are concerned that We do not have reliable information on The yellow-billed loon is included in these problems could cause harm to enforcement of regulations in Russia, the 2008 International Union for the yellow-billed loons, but currently we and we also do not have information Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List have little information on mortality that insufficient regulation or Category as a ‘‘Least concern’’ species; rates or loss of loon habitat in this enforcement has caused a population- widespread and abundant taxa are region, and no evidence from our level threat to the yellow-billed loon. included in this category. The species is limited information on breeding The Wildlife Act of Norway (1981), not currently listed under the population trends indicates that the lack where loons winter in marine waters, Convention on International Trade in of regulation in Asian waters is causing specifies that all wildlife, including Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and a population-level threat to yellow- eggs, nests, and habitats, are protected Flora (CITES); and trade is not known billed loons. (meaning that individuals of the species to negatively affect the yellow-billed We received a response to our letter may not be collected or destroyed) loon. The species is listed under the to the Russian Ministry of Natural unless otherwise prescribed by statutory United Nations Environment Program Resources from the Russian Academy of law. Norway’s marine ecosystem is Convention on the Conservation of Sciences, which stated that there are no managed by the Ministries of Migratory Species of Wild Animals ongoing management measures to Environment, Fisheries and Coastal (UNEP–CMS), although the United protect the yellow-billed loon in Russia. Affairs, Petroleum and Energy, and States, Russia, Canada, and most Asian They stated that all the best known Labour and Social Inclusion (Royal nations are not signatories (http:// species’ breeding sites are outside any Norwegian Ministry of the Environment www.cms.int/, accessed September 9, protected areas, and no conservation 2006, pp. 46–59), which coordinate 2008). and management strategies have been environmental laws regulating fishing In Asia, no specific relevant laws for recently developed to protect the and controlling pollution from North Korea or the Republic of Korea species (E. Syreochkovskiy, Russian development and vessel traffic (Royal (South Korea) were found that would Academy of Sciences, in litt. 2008). Norwegian Ministry of the Environment apply to protection of yellow-billed The yellow-billed loon is listed in the 2006, p. 46). We do not have evidence loons or their habitat. Chinese wildlife Red Data Book of the Russian that lack of adequate regulation in laws (The Law of the People’s Republic Federation (2001, pp. 366–367) as a Norway has or is likely to lead to threats of China on the Protection of Wildlife category 3 species (rare, sporadically to the yellow-billed loon. 1991; The Regulations for the distributed species). The species is The yellow-billed loon is designated Implementation of the People’s nominally protected under the 1978 as ‘‘not at risk’’ under Canada’s Species Republic of China on the Protection of U.S. Migratory Bird Treaty with the at Risk Act of 2002, legislation similar Terrestrial Wildlife 1992) protect former Soviet Union (Convention to the U.S. Endangered Species Act species of wildlife and the environment, between the United States of America (http://www.sararegistry.gc.ca/; with provisions for hunting (including and the Union of Soviet Socialist accessed January 28, 2009). In its licensure), and habitat protection for Republics Concerning the Conservation assessment and status report on the species under the special protection of of Migratory Birds and their yellow-billed loon, the Committee on the state, although the yellow-billed Environment; Pub. L. 95–616), which the Status of Endangered Wildlife in loon is listed as ‘‘not threatened’’ by the specifies that each party shall prohibit Canada (COSEWIC) determined the China Species Information Service the taking of migratory birds, the yellow-billed loon was ‘‘not at risk’’ (CSIS database, http:// collection of their nests and eggs, and (COSEWIC 1997, p. iii). The report www.chinabiodiversity.com; accessed the disturbance of nesting colonies. acknowledged that all loons are highly Sept. 8, 2008). Exceptions include subsistence susceptible to pollution and destruction The Japan-United States Convention purposes for indigenous people. The of wetland and coastal marine habitats for the Protection of Migratory Birds and Treaty also mandates that to the extent (COSEWIC 1997, p. vi). According to the Birds in Danger of Extinction, and Their possible, the parties shall undertake COSEWIC status report on the yellow- Environment (1974) includes the measures necessary to protect and billed loon prepared by Barr (1997, p. yellow-billed loon, though it is not enhance the environment of migratory 4), the dangers of human activities, the designated as a Japanese endangered birds and to prevent and abate the naturally low population, limited species. The Convention prohibits the pollution or detrimental alteration of breeding habitat and food resources, and taking of migratory birds or their eggs, that environment. Regional protection inability to adapt ensure that the unless there are permitted exceptions occurs in some regions where yellow- yellow-billed loon will remain for subsistence. The Convention also billed loons occur such as Kamchatka, vulnerable. However, he also stated that specifies that each party shall seek Murmansk, Sakhalin, and Yamal-Nenets its present low population could be means to prevent damage to such birds Autonomous District (AD), but not in normal, stable, and well adapted to its and their environment, including, Yakutia, Taymyr AD, or Chukotka AD, severe environment, and that there does especially, damage resulting from where nesting is concentrated (Red Data not yet seem to have been any pollution of the seas. Book Bulletin 2003, p. 77). In significant loss of critical habitat (Barr Lack of regulation and enforcement of Kamchatka, yellow-billed loons are 1997, p. 4). The COSEWIC report (1997; fishing and pollution in marine waters protected in some nature reserves along p. iii) concluded that the yellow-billed of China and the Republic of Korea have the eastern and southern coasts of loon is uncommon but widespread with been identified as barriers to recovery of Kamchatka (Red Data Book of no evidence of declines or limiting the Yellow Sea ecosystem (UNDP/GEF Kamchatka, p. 92), but not along the factors over widespread areas. 2007, pp. 79–84). ‘‘In the Yellow Sea, western coast where oil and gas The Migratory Bird Treaty (or there are clearly deficiencies in fisheries development are planned. Yellow-billed Convention) between Canada and the management and regulation. loons are also protected under bilateral United States (originally ratified in 1916

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and implemented in 1918, and amended harvest is higher than previously Appendix B, p. B–11) and the NE NPR– in 1994 in Canada) established a legal thought, and is likely unsustainable. A Supplemental Integrated Activity framework protecting migratory birds. The yellow-billed loon is a K-selected, Plan/Environmental Impact Statement Under Canada’s Migratory Birds long-lived species, that requires high Record of Decision (USDOI–BLM 2008b, Convention Act (1994), the Governor in adult survival and has low recovery Appendix A, pp. 51–53) contain ROP E– Council regulates migratory nongame potential and slow recovery rates once 11, an express objective of which is to bird species, such as the yellow-billed populations decline; consequently, minimize disturbance to yellow-billed loon, by prohibiting the killing, significant mortality of yellow-billed loons from oil and gas activities in the capturing, injuring, taking, or disturbing loons, especially of adults, is a major NPR–A (V. Galterio, BLM Alaska State of migratory birds or the damaging, concern. The Service and State of Director, in litt. 2008). This ROP destroying, removing, or disturbing of Alaska have recognized the yellow- requires oil and gas lessees to conduct nests; prescribing protection areas for billed loon as a potentially vulnerable multi-year surveys in order to detect migratory birds and nests; and requiring species under the Birds of Conservation nesting yellow-billed loons before the the control and management of those Concern (68 FR 6179) and State construction of development facilities areas (http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/ Comprehensive Wildlife Conservation will be authorized. The ROP further showtdm/cs/M-7.01///en; accessed Strategy (http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/ specifies that the design and location of November 24, 2008). However, the Act statewide/ngplan/, accessed September facilities must be such that disturbance allows for the subsistence take of birds, 9, 2008), respectively. These to yellow-billed loons is minimized. including the yellow-billed loon, by designations provide management and Based on the best scientific and Aboriginal people in Canada. Currently, research funding prioritization. commercial information currently the species is not covered under Much of the yellow-billed loon’s available, the BLM agrees with the Canadian Provincial laws or regulations breeding range in Alaska is found on the Service that this objective can best be and, thus, receives no additional NW and NE NPR–A (which is managed achieved by prohibiting development protections or conservation by the BLM), and the species is on the within 1.6 km (1 mi) of detected nests considerations in Canada. There are no BLM-Alaska’s list of sensitive species. and 500 m (1,640 ft) around the conservation and management strategies One of the objectives of BLM’s Special shorelines of lakes 10.1 ha (25 ac) or being developed to protect the species Status Species Policy is to ensure that larger (Galterio, in litt. 2008). in Canada (V. Poter, Canadian Wildlife actions requiring authorization or According to the BLM (Galterio, in Service, in litt. 2008, p. 1), and no approval by BLM are consistent with the litt. 2008), to account for new conservation needs of special status population surveys are conducted or information that might be obtained in species and do not contribute to the planned. Although the two Migratory the future (such as information about need to list any special status species, Bird Sanctuaries where yellow-billed yellow-billed loons, specific either under provisions of the Act or loons breed (Queen Maud Gulf and development proposals, and their other provisions of the policy. Banks Island Migratory Bird potential impact on yellow-billed Specifically, the BLM must manage the Sanctuaries) encompass over 8 million loons), both the Northwest and habitat to conserve the species by: hectares total and are remote from major Northeast Records of Decision would ensuring sensitive species are human cities or other development, allow for exceptions or deviations from appropriately considered in land-use subsistence hunting by Aboriginal enumerated buffers in limited plans; developing, cooperating with, people is allowed within them and implementing range-wide or site- circumstances. In these circumstances, (MacDonald in litt. 2008, p. 1). At specific management plans, the exception or deviation would still be present, we have some concern about conservation strategies, and assessments required to meet the management subsistence harvest in Canada which for sensitive species that include objective of minimizing disturbance to appears to be unregulated, particularly specific habitat and population the species and would, at a minimum, in light of the lack of knowledge about management objectives designed for need to provide the same level of loon population levels or trends, but we conservation, as well as management protection that the existing buffers do not have evidence that this lack of strategies necessary to meet those provide. The evaluation of a deviation regulation is causing a population-level objectives; and ensuring that BLM request that could affect yellow-billed threat to the yellow-billed loon breeding activities affecting the habitat of loons would be made with close population in Canada. sensitive species are carried out in a collaboration and extensive discussions Within the United States, the yellow- manner that is consistent with the with subject-matter experts at the billed loon has protection under several objectives for managing those species. Service and academia to ensure the laws and regulations. The MBTA makes The BLM has adopted stipulations conservation of the species. it unlawful to kill or take eggs or nests and ROPs for the NW and NE NPR–A Although data are not available to of yellow-billed loons, but it does not (USDOI–BLM 2004a, Appendix B, pp. determine how effective the stipulations provide protection for habitat, a B–1–B–18; USDOI–BLM 2008b, and ROPs will be in minimizing or potential concern in relation to Appendix A, pp. 37–74) in order to eliminating adverse impacts to the development in breeding areas. Yellow- minimize potential impacts to yellow- species, BLM has expressed a billed loons are not open for subsistence billed loons, such as disturbance of commitment to measures aimed at hunting in Alaska under migratory bird nesting birds and broods. As discussed minimizing potential impacts to yellow- subsistence-harvest regulations (March under Factor A, these include water- billed loons from activities within the 14, 2008, 73 FR 13788), but our analysis withdrawal standards for deep fish- purview of BLM’s authority as a land of harvest surveys (discussed under bearing lakes and setbacks for management agency (V. Galterio, in litt. Factor E) indicates that harvest exploratory drilling and permanent 2008). We believe that BLM’s nevertheless occurs, at times at facilities near fish-bearing and deep stipulations and ROPS will likely be substantial levels. Although we have lakes (greater than 3.9 m (13 ft) deep). adequate to mitigate potential impacts some concerns about the accuracy of Both the NW NPR–A Integrated Activity to the yellow-billed loon in Alaska, if reported harvest levels, as described in Plan/Environmental Impact Statement careful monitoring and coordination Factor E, we have concluded that Record of Decision (USDOI–BLM 2004a, with the Service continues.

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The Service, National Park Service, mechanisms have not been adequate to In Canada, offshore resources are being Alaska Department of Natural eliminate all threats to the yellow-billed explored and developed in the southern Resources, ADFG, and the North Slope loon throughout its range. In particular, Beaufort Sea near the McKenzie Delta, Borough entered into a ‘‘Conservation despite the fact that the species is closed where loons gather in polynyas and ice Agreement for the Yellow-billed Loon to subsistence hunting in Alaska, leads in spring to stage before arriving (Gavia adamsii)’’ (Conservation harvest surveys have recorded a on breeding grounds (Canada Indian Agreement 2006, pp. 1–29) in November substantial level of harvest. We believe and Northern Affairs 2008, p. 1). 2006. The agreement specifies the goal that future take at a level consistent Offshore drilling and ship traffic occur of protecting the yellow-billed loon and with these prior levels would cause a in the area of the Amundsen Gulf and its habitat in Alaska and identifies population-level decline that constitutes Cape Bathurst Polynya, where yellow- several strategies for achieving this goal. a threat to the species (see Factor E, billed loons are common in spring These strategies include implementing below). Therefore, we conclude that (Mallory and Fontaine 2004, p. 52). actions to reduce the impacts of oil and existing regulatory mechanisms are Development could also continue north gas activities; determining and reducing, inadequate to protect the species. of yellow-billed loon breeding areas in if necessary, impacts from subsistence the arctic Islands, where the Sverdrup Factor E: Other Natural or Man-Made activities; and inventorying, monitoring, Basin contains oil and gas reserves. In Factors Affecting its Continued and conducting research on the yellow- western Russia, offshore projects at the Existence billed loon. While the agreement western edge of yellow-billed loon demonstrates the parties’ good-faith Direct Effects of Oil and Gas breeding grounds in the Barents Sea efforts to identify and undertake Development and Vessel Traffic include the Shtokman gas field protective measures for the loon and its Yellow-billed loons spend the currently in planning stages. Gazprom is habitat, it does not require any specific majority of their life in the marine developing offshore gas fields in the actions to be undertaken to achieve its environment, and are exposed to Kara Sea near the Yamal Peninsula. goals or specify any time frames for potential impacts of disturbance, Undiscovered reserves are thought to doing so, nor does it establish any collisions with oil and gas structures, occur in the East Siberian Sea and the quantifiable, scientifically valid and spills of oil and toxic substances Laptev Sea Shelf in the Arctic Ocean, parameters by which to measure from offshore oil and gas development but exploration has not occurred there achievement of the objectives and gauge and other vessel traffic. Offshore oil and (EIA 2008, p. 1; USGS 2007, pp. 1–2). progress. Thus, we are unable to gas development might also affect Oil and gas development are ongoing conclude with sufficient certainty that terrestrial yellow billed loon habitats in migration and wintering areas. An the agreement is likely to be effective in (e.g., through construction of pipelines, offshore lease sale is planned for Bristol protecting the yellow-billed loon; so we support facilities, etc.). Those impacts Bay near the wintering location of a did not rely on it for our analysis in this are discussed under Factor A. yellow-billed loon tagged with a finding. This is consistent with the The magnitude of potential impacts transmitter on Seward Peninsula Service’s 2003 ‘‘Policy for Evaluation of from offshore oil and gas development breeding grounds (U.S. Minerals Conservation Efforts When Making is related to the type, size, and Management Service 2008, p. 1). In Listing Decisions’’ (PECE) policy, which probability of development, and its Russia, reserves of oil and gas in the Sea sets forth criteria to be used to location in relation to yellow-billed loon of Okhotsk are large, and just beginning determine whether conservation efforts distribution and use of an area. Yellow- to be exploited. Drilling is planned off that have yet to be implemented or billed loons are widely dispersed during the west coast of Kamchatka (Rosneft show effectiveness contribute to making most of their annual cycle, so the largest 2008, p. 1), where tagged yellow-billed listing a species as threatened or potential for impacts to a number of loons have passed in migration and endangered unnecessary. individuals from a single environmental wintered. Development around Sakhalin In summary, Russia is the only nation perturbation is in spring, when Island in the southern Sea of Okhotsk that includes the yellow-billed loon on localized, temporary concentrations includes three offshore fields under the an endangered or sensitive species list. occur in migration. Adult loons gather Sakhalin I project and two fields under Some countries (Canada, Japan, Norway, in polynyas and ice leads and along Sakhalin II. Sakhalin II is ‘‘the world’s Russia, and the United States) have laws open shorelines near river deltas on the largest integrated, export-oriented oil that prohibit the hunting of migratory coasts of northern Alaska and Canada. It and gas project,’’ including an oil birds such as the yellow-billed loon, is likely that there are similar terminal and Russia’s first liquefied- unless specific regulations are issued, or movements and concentrations of natural-gas plant at Aniva Bay (Royal unless the animals are harvested for yellow-billed loons near Russian Dutch Shell 2008, p. 1) where tagged subsistence. Provisions to prevent breeding areas in spring, but we have yellow-billed loons have passed in habitat degradation for wildlife and not found documentation of such migration and wintered. Exploration migratory birds or to protect the activity. The oil industry is active in continues for additional Sakhalin fields. environment exist, but enforcement these areas, as demonstrated by existing Norway is among the 10 largest levels are unknown and in some projects such as Pioneer’s Ooogrurk producers of oil and gas in the world, countries may not be effective at field, BP Alaska’s Northstar with all its production offshore in the protecting habitats. In the United States, development, and exploration activities North, Norwegian, and Barents Seas the MBTA prohibits killing of yellow- in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas by (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate 2008, billed loons, but does not provide for Shell Inc., ConocoPhillips, and others. p. 1–1, Figures 3.2–3.5). Production of habitat protection. The Bureau of Land In Alaska, exploration and production oil is expected to decline slowly, while Management, the land management are active in Federal and State lease gas production will increase, depending agency with authority over most of the tracts in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas on future discoveries (Norwegian yellow-billed loon’s breeding range in where loons gather in spring and Petroleum Directorate, p. 1–3). Seismic Alaska, has instituted protective summer offshore from yellow-billed studies are occurring in the Lofoten measures for the species and its habitat. loon breeding areas on the ACP fishing grounds currently closed to oil However, existing regulatory (USMMS 2008, p. 1; ADNR 2008, p. 1). and gas development under a regional

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management plan (Royal Norwegian offshore oil and gas development can development occurs, spills are relatively Ministry of the Environment 2006, pp. occur as a result of well blowouts, infrequent, even in the arctic. To date, 1–144); this area is offshore from the operational discharges, pipeline there have been no large oil spills in the largest concentrations of yellow-billed failures, tanker or other vessel leaks, arctic marine environment from oil and loons wintering along the Norwegian and numerous other potential accidental gas activities (AMAP 2007, p. 24). No coast (Strann and Ostnes 2007, Figure discharges (AMAP 2007, pp. 24–25). A exploratory drilling blowouts have 2). The management plan will be discharge of these products could cause occurred from the 98 wells drilled to updated in 2010, with an opportunity to direct mortality of yellow-billed loons date in Alaska’s arctic offshore region open the area to drilling. or result in indirect effects through (USMMS 2007, Appendix A.1, p. 2). In Air and boat traffic associated with oil habitat degradation or killing prey fact, of the 13,463 exploratory wells that and gas development could disturb species. have been drilled in the coastal United yellow-billed loons, decreasing foraging Mortality following exposure to oil is States, there were 66 blowouts during success or displacing individuals to less common in aquatic birds, which are drilling, only 4 of which resulted in oil preferred areas at some unknown vulnerable to surface oil (Albers 2003, spills (range 1 to 200 bbl; average 78 ∼ energetic costs. The severity of pp. 354–356). External oiling disrupts bbl) (USMMS 2007, Appendix A.1, p. disturbance and displacement effects structure, causes matting of 2). Finally, even if a spill occurred, the depends upon the duration, frequency, , and permits wetting of the chances that it would occur close to and timing of the disturbing activity. bird, and death typically results from loons in the seasonal window of time Hence, construction and operation of hypothermia and drowning (Vermeer when they are present is also small. offshore facilities, which could persist and Vermeer 1975, pp. 281–295; Jenssen Oil and gas exploration, production, for years, will likely have greater 1994, pp. 207). Ingesting petroleum and transportation, as well as spills impacts than seismic and exploratory through feather preening or from other vessel traffic, could also activities, which generally last less than consumption of contaminated food or affect migrating and wintering yellow- one year. Depending upon the frequency water, and inhalation of fumes from billed loons, as described below, but we of operations and routes traversed by evaporating oil, might not be believe this risk factor is minimized vessels and aircraft, impacts could range immediately lethal, but debilitating because yellow-billed loons are widely from negligible (few yellow-billed loons effects include gastrointestinal distributed and, therefore, at extremely encountered at irregular intervals) to irritation, pneumonia, dehydration, red low densities throughout most of the substantial (vessels or aircraft blood cell damage, impaired repeatedly encounter yellow-billed osmoregulation, immune system year when they are at sea. The 1989 loons). Expected increases in arctic suppression, hormonal imbalance, Exxon Valdez tanker spill killed an shipping traffic due to reduced summer inhibited reproduction, retarded growth, estimated 17 to 50 yellow-billed loons sea ice are discussed in the Climate and abnormal parental behavior in Prince William Sound, Alaska (Earnst Change section under Factor A. (Jenssen 1994, pp. 207–211; Hartung 2004a, p. 21). There is oil and gas Offshore oil and gas development and Hunt 1966, pp. 564–569; Miller et development in the Sea of Okhotsk, would result in both fixed (e.g., offshore al. 1978, pp. 315–317; Szaro et al. 1981, including on and around Sakhalin platforms) and mobile structures (e.g., pp. 791–798; Leighton 1993, pp. 93–99; Island and off the west coast of supply ships) in the marine Fry et al. 1986, pp. 455–462; Eppley Kamchatka. Oil and gas development environment, posing a potential 1992, pp. 309–311; Fowler et al. 1995, also occurs in yellow-billed loon collision risk for yellow-billed loons. pp. 383–387; Walton 1997, pp. 264–267; wintering areas in Norwegian waters, Birds are particularly at risk of collision and Briggs et al. 1997, pp. 718–723). and oil spills at drilling sites and due to with objects in their path when These effects can cause death from vessel accidents occur. Due to the visibility is impaired during darkness or starvation, disease, or predation, importance of the Norwegian fishing inclement weather, such as rain, drizzle, especially in the harsh arctic industry, regulation of offshore oil or fog (Weir 1976, p. 6). In a study of environment. development has been protective. avian interactions with offshore oil In northern seas it is difficult to However, it is possible that in 2010 platforms in the Gulf of , Russell contain and clean up spilled petroleum Norway will allow oil development in (2005, pp. 266–297) found that collision products due to ice, high winds, and the Lofoten fishing grounds offshore events were more common and more high seas. A spill can result in persistent from a yellow-billed loon wintering severe (by number of birds) during poor environmental contamination by oil and area. The Sea of Japan and the Yellow weather. Weather conditions that its toxic breakdown products and Sea, bordering China, North and South increase collision risk are common in reduced food resources, resulting in Korea, and Japan, have high levels of northern waters such as the Bering, lower survival and hydrocarbon vessel traffic subject to oil spill Beaufort, and Chukchi Seas. Without exposure years after visible oil has been accidents, with several ports among the knowing the number, location, and abated (Esler et al. 2000, p. 843; Trust world’s top 25 in cargo transported. In design of structures that would result et al. 2000, pp. 399–402). December 2007, the crude oil carrier MT from offshore oil and gas development, While a large spill in an area Hebei Spirit caused South Korea’s worst it is difficult to estimate the number of supporting large numbers of yellow- oil spill to date, estimated at 71,000 bbl yellow-billed loons that would pass by billed loons could have significant in the Yellow Sea near where yellow- structures during migration. adverse effects, we consider the relative billed loons tagged with transmitters Vulnerability to collision with probability of such an event to be very have been located in winter. In structures probably varies among low. First, the likelihood of December 2004, the freighter M/V species, but we are not aware of development occurring in areas where Selendang Ayu grounded and broke in information on the propensity of loons gather is low. For example, the half in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, yellow-billed or other loons to collide U.S. Minerals Management Service spilling more than 8,000 bbl of oil. One with structures. calculates the probability of commercial yellow-billed loon was observed to be Spills of oil, refined petroleum success resulting from their lease sale oiled in the vicinity of the spill (Byrd products (e.g., diesel fuel), or other toxic 193 in the Chukchi Sea to be 10 percent and Daniel 2008, p. 6). Yellow-billed substances (e.g., drilling mud) from (USMMS 2006, p. 2). Second, if loons wintering in marine waters off

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southern Alaska, British Columbia, and actual harvest levels constitutes a threat I. Alaska around Great Britain could also to the species rangewide. Surveys Conducted Prior to Migratory encounter spills, primarily from vessel Subsistence hunting of wild birds, Bird Subsistence-Harvest Regulations traffic. including loons, is an important Yellow-billed loons face the As stated in Factor D, yellow-billed possibility of oil spills throughout their component of the customs, traditions, loons are not open for subsistence range. The one breeding population for and economies of many cultural groups hunting in Alaska under migratory bird which we have population trend data, in the arctic. Subsistence is defined in subsistence-harvest regulations. Prior to the ACP population, is stable or slightly U.S. Federal and State law as the the establishment of Federal regulations declining at present. We would expect ‘‘customary and traditional uses’’ of authorizing subsistence harvest for a steep decline if cumulative oil spills wild resources for a variety of purposes, migratory bird species in 2003, were affecting this population, which including food, clothing, fuel, subsistence harvest surveys for winters in Asian waters. We do not have transportation, construction, art, crafts, migratory birds were conducted evidence that marine oil spills are sharing, and customary trade (Wolfe sporadically, and coverage varied causing population-level effects to 2000, p. 1). Yellow-billed loons are considerably among surveys. yellow-billed loons on the ACP. The generally not a preferred food in some Yellow-billed loons migrate through Asian wintering grounds are likely to parts of their arctic range, but their skin the Chukchi and Bering Sea, making harbor the most oil spills due to vessel and feathers are used for ceremonial them available for harvest during spring and fall migration in northwest Alaska. accidents compared to other wintering purposes (Paige et al. 1996, appendices; In the Northwest Arctic Borough (the areas, so it is reasonably likely that Georgette 2000, p. 19; Syreochkovskiy area around Kotzebue, Alaska) harvest breeding populations that winter 2008, p. 2), and they are shot for other elsewhere are not at greater risk than the surveys (from 1994–1998; Georgette reasons, such as for taxidermy, to chase 2000, pp. 1–218), no yellow-billed loons birds that winter in Asia. them from fishing nets, or out of In summary, at present we believe the were reported, but 71 common, 2 arctic, curiosity (Syreochkovskiy 2008, p. 2). risk to yellow-billed loons from offshore 6 red-throated, and 1 unknown loon oil and gas development and shipping Discussions between St. Lawrence were reported, with identification of traffic accidents to be low. Moreover, Island, Alaska hunters, and Service species noted as uncertain at times the one breeding population for which biologists confirmed that Bering Strait (Georgette 2000, p. 10). Loons we have population trends does not hunters target loons for harvest (Ostrand comprised generally less than one appear to be declining steeply due to in litt. 2009, p. 1). A Service biologist percent of the total bird harvest this risk factor. Although the amount of working with hunters on St. Lawrence (Georgette 2000, p. 19). A one-year oil and gas development and shipping Island in the spring rarely observed survey of the two villages on St. traffic will likely increase in the future, hunters with harvested loons in their Lawrence Island in the Bering Strait the associated risk is reasonably likely possession (Benter in litt. 2008, p. 1), from 1995–1996 reported 40 yellow- to be partly or wholly offset by although he has observed hunters billed loons and 290 common, 81 improved technologies and regulation, targeting loons for harvest (Benter pers. Pacific, and 15 unknown loons such as the U.S. Oil Pollution Act of comm. 2009). harvested (ADFG and Kawerak 1997, p. 1990. Also, the species’ wide 2). Concerns about misidentification of Although it is clear that loons are distribution and extremely low densities species, particularly identification of harvested for subsistence, there are throughout most of the year when birds common loons, which are rare in the are at sea reduces the risk of population- challenges to assessing the magnitude of Bering Strait, are discussed below. level impacts from any single event. As harvest and biases inherent in the Yellow-billed loons migrate along the offshore oil and gas development and process. Harvest surveys have been coast of the Yukon/Kuskokwim Delta shipping traffic continue, individual conducted in many arctic communities, and Bristol Bay regions, so harvest in yellow-billed loons will likely continue but they have varied in geographic spring and fall is possible. Because to be negatively affected as a result of coverage, methodology and analysis, yellow-billed loons do not breed in collisions with vessels or structures and and level of detail; thus, comparing these regions, reports of summer and oil spills. However, we cannot reliably among areas or detecting trends over egg harvest suggest misidentification. predict that the species will be affected time is difficult (SHSAC 2003, p. 5). Below we report the long-term harvest at the population level, given the Most survey data are collected through survey record for these areas. Because considerable uncertainty of the location recall interviews conducted a month or reports give summary results of such events and the effectiveness of more after harvest, resulting in varying overlapping the pre- and post-2003 the design and operational spill cleanup and unknown levels of recall error. regulation period, we report the entire methods that may be employed. Sampling designs might inadequately survey record here, including post-2003 Therefore, we find that oil and gas survey rarely taken species (SHSAC results. development and vessel traffic is not a 2003, p. 15), and there have been no Yellow-billed loons have been reported in almost every annual Yukon- threat to the yellow-billed loon now or surveys specifically targeting yellow- Kuskokwim Delta harvest survey in the foreseeable future. billed loons. As a result, most yellow- (conducted 1985 to present, except Subsistence Harvest billed loon harvest estimates have a 2003, with methodology changes in Subsistence harvest of yellow-billed high level of variance and yield results 2001 and 2002; Wentworth 2007b, p. loons in the Bering Strait has been of unknown accuracy. In some surveys, 12). The 2001–2006 5-year average reported at levels that we expect would loons are not identified to species; in yellow-billed loon harvest was 44 ± 78 cause impacts to the species in the others misidentification of species SD (standard deviation, a measure of the foreseeable future. Although we have harvested probably occurs but to an dispersion of the data around the mean) concerns about the degree of accuracy of unknown degree. To consider (range 0–183) for the Yukon/ the reported numbers of yellow-billed misidentification issues, we present Kuskokwim Delta (calculated from loons harvested, as discussed below, we some data below on other loon species Wentworth 2007b, p. 36 and USFWS et believe that the likely magnitude of reported in harvest surveys. al. 2008, Table 2006–17a). Yellow-billed

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loon eggs were reported taken in 14 of Harvest Surveys Conducted Subsequent that the results should be used with 20 years, with an annual average of 14 to Migratory Bird Subsistence-Harvest caution due to possible inaccuracies, eggs per year estimated for 2001 through Regulations unreliable data, and insufficient sample 2005 (Wentworth 2007b, pp. 37–41). In 2004, a new Alaska-wide size (USFWS et al. 2008, p. 3). Within Yellow-billed loons have been subsistence-harvest survey, including the area covered by the new survey, reportedly taken in every Bristol Bay spring, summer, and fall seasons, was yellow-billed loons are most likely to region survey (since 1995, except no initiated subsequent to the 2003 occur in the North Slope, Northwest surveys in 2000 and 2003, surveys were implementation of migratory bird Arctic, and Bering Strait/Norton Sound regions during nesting and in Bristol limited to Togiak NWR in 1996, 1998, subsistence-harvest regulations. Under Bay and Yukon/Kuskokwim regions and 2006, and methodology changed in the new regulations, areas of Alaska during migration; they were reported as 2001 and 2002; Wentworth 2007a, pp. eligible for migratory bird subsistence- harvest are divided into regions that are harvested in the Bering Strait/Norton 1–2). The 2001–2005 Bristol Bay region surveyed periodically (map available at Sound, Bristol Bay, North Slope, and average yellow-billed loon harvest was ± http://alaska.fws.gov/ambcc/ Yukon/Kuskokwim Delta regions in 78 128 SD (range 5–269) (Wentworth Regulations.htm). The new survey has 2004–2006 (Table 1). The largest 2007a, p. 22). From 1995–2005, the only yet to be conducted simultaneously number of yellow-billed loons and other eggs reported in Bristol Bay were in within a year in all villages or all loon species were estimated for the 1997, when 27 eggs were estimated regions (USFWS et al. 2008, p. 3), and Bering Strait/Norton Sound region taken (Wentworth 2007a, pp. 23–24). the 2004–2006 summary report states (Table 2).

TABLE 1—ESTIMATED HARVEST OF YELLOW-BILLED LOONS (EXCLUDING EGGS) IN ALASKA REGIONS REPORTING TAKE OF THE SPECIES IN THE YEARS 2004–2006. NO OTHER REGIONS REPORTED YELLOW-BILL LOON TAKE. DATA EX- TRACTED FROM TABLES IN USFWS ET AL. 2008

Year

Region 2004 2005 2006 Total

Estimated a Estimated Estimated harvest 95% CI Season harvest 95% CI Season harvest

Bering Strait ...... 317 ...... 271–530 Spring ...... 45 ...... 45–123 Spring ...... NSb ...... 362 Summer Summer Fall Bristol Bay ...... 10 ...... 8–30 ..... Fall 5 ...... 2–22 ..... Spring ...... 0 ...... 15 YKD ...... 4 ...... 3–16 ..... Spring ...... 12 ...... (c) ...... Spring ...... 0 ...... 16 Summer Fall North Slope ...... NS ...... 3 ...... 2–14 ..... Summer ...... NS ...... 3

Total ...... 331 65 0 ...... 396 CI = confidence interval a Seasons that yellow-billed loons were reported as harvested. b NS = region not surveyed in that year. c For Yukon/Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in 2005, 11 yellow-billed loons reported in the Kuskokwim River subregion (95 percent CI 8–53) and one reported in North Coast subregion (95 percent CI 1–23).

TABLE 2—ESTIMATED HARVEST OF LOONS FOR THE BERING STRAIT/NORTON SOUND REGION IN 2004 AND 2005. DATA EXTRACTED FROM TABLES IN USFWS ET AL. 2008

Year Species 2004 2005 Number 95% CI Number 95% CI

Yellow-billed loon ...... 317 271–530 45 45–123 ...... 405 345–889 891 871–1438 Pacific loon ...... 498 425–772 33 18–115 Red-throated loon ...... 26 22–89 15 10–82

We recently received preliminary reported that an estimated 1,077 (95 (SL-DI subregion). This estimated SL-DI subsistence-harvest estimates for 2007 percent CI = 808–1,347) yellow-billed subregion yellow-billed loon harvest (Naves 2008, pp. 1–30). For 2007, Naves loons and 2,492 (95 percent CI = 2,158– was allocated among seasons with 5 (2008, pp. 1–31) reported results by 2,826) common loons were harvested for birds estimated harvested in spring, 362 subregion rather than by region as a Bering Strait/Norton Sound subregion in the summer, and 711 in the fall. reported previously; thus these that includes two villages on St. Estimated harvest of common loons in observations are not directly comparable Lawrence Island and one on Little the SL-DI subregion were 166 in spring, to data in Tables 1 and 2 and are not Diomede Island, called the St. 560 in summer, and 1,766 in fall (Naves included therein. Naves (2008, p. 7) Lawrence-Diomede Islands subregion 2008, p. 7). Harvest of 76 Pacific loons

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(95 percent CI = 19–134) and 366 red- A potential source of estimated harvest in the 2007 survey throated loons (95 percent CI = 221– misidentification is the probable (Naves 2008, p. 7). Large inter-annual 511) was also estimated for the presence in the fall of juvenile loons variation in estimated harvest of yellow- subregion (Naves 2008, p. 7). Yellow- whose plumage resembles adult basic billed loons could represent billed loons were not reported for any (i.e., non-breeding or winter) plumage. It measurement error for a relatively other subregion in the Bering Strait/ is difficult to differentiate among loon constant rate of harvest, or it could Norton Sound Region. The Barrow species in this plumage, and survey represent actual variation in harvest subregion of the North Slope region was forms do not illustrate this plumage or among years. Schmutz (in litt. 2008, p. the only other surveyed area that highlight ways to distinguish among 1) observed that some yellow-billed reported harvest of yellow-billed loons species. It is unknown how many loons fitted with transmitters in 2002, in 2007, with an estimated 84 (95 common loons move through the Bering 2003, and 2007 on Alaskan breeding percent CI = 32–135) yellow-billed Strait, but as described above, the grounds moved to marine waters near loons harvested (Naves 2008, p. 15). number is thought to be small since they St. Lawrence Island before migrating Interpretation of the 2007 loon harvest have rarely been seen on St. Lawrence south, but others, including all eight estimates requires consideration of Island. Therefore, if misidentification is birds fitted with transmitters in 2008, several factors (beyond their magnitude attributable to confusion between moved from Alaskan breeding grounds and potential population-level impact, yellow-billed and common loons, the to Kolyuchin Bay on the north side of which will be discussed later). First, the actual harvest of yellow-billed loons is the Chukotka Peninsula, and crossed confidence intervals (which are likely even greater than that reported. It overland to the southwest over the mathematical estimates of the reliability is also possible that Pacific and red- peninsula and into Anadyr Bay, thereby of the estimate, and in this case are throated loons are misidentified as avoiding the St. Lawrence Island area. expressed as a percent of the estimated yellow-billed and common loons, Thus, migratory behavior may vary from value) surrounding the estimates of both although they are notably smaller. If so, year to year based on some unknown yellow-billed and common loons are this would result in actual harvest of environmental factor, and loon harvest comparatively small. The 2007 survey yellow-billed loons being less than that could vary with changes in the number results for the SL–DI subregion have a reported. of loons moving past hunting areas in 95 percent CI that is only 25 percent of We considered the possibility that a different years. the estimate for yellow-billed loons and large number of households in the Because the 2007 estimated harvest 13 percent for common loons (Naves subregion misidentified loons due to was substantially higher than earlier 2008, p. 7); these are much smaller than survey deficiencies, and we considered estimates, we evaluated issues specific earlier estimates given for the entire the possibility that this problem was to the 2007 survey that might help Bering Strait/Norton Sound region (for worse in 2007 than in earlier years, explain this difference. Other than the example, the 2005 95 percent CI was resulting in a higher estimated harvest fact that the survey for all three seasons 174.2 percent of the estimate for yellow- than in previous years. The survey was conducted at the end of the fall billed loons and 61.4 percent for forms show color pictures of birds season, survey protocols were followed, common loons (USFWS et al. 2008, exclusively in breeding plumage, and and no other factors were identified to Table 2005–2a)). These smaller CI survey respondents are asked to mark explain the high estimate (Ostrand in values indicate increased precision in the number taken next to the pictures. litt. 2009, p. 1). Conducting the survey the 2007 subregional estimate compared The lack of depictions of winter and at the end of the year means that the to the earlier regional estimates, which immature in the survey form respondents would have to recall what reflects large sample size (82 of 318 is a likely problem for harvest reported they harvested months earlier, which households (26 percent) sampled) and in the fall, when immature birds are could reduce the accuracy of the survey, low variation among households likely to be harvested. There is no need especially for the earlier seasons. (indicating that most households for the respondent to identify the name Although we examined potential reported taking fairly comparable of the bird, making it less likely that flaws in the harvest survey data and numbers of loons). cultural differences in nomenclature concluded that some birds could have A second consideration in would cause systemic misidentification. been misidentified, we believe the data interpreting the large estimate of yellow- The surveyors were trained in a are reliable enough to identify the order billed loon harvest for 2007 is possible standard manner for all surveys across of magnitude of likely harvest. We misidentification. Large numbers of the state in all years, using a manual conclude that on average, hundreds of common loons are reported as harvested developed over many years. In the yellow-billed loons are probably taken in the SL/DI subregion where they are Bering Strait/Norton Sound region, the annually in the Bering Strait region. In a rare to uncommon visitor (Fay and surveyors were provided with several addition, tens are likely taken in other Cade 1959, p. 100; Kessel 1989, p. 66; bird identification books to assist them, parts of Alaska, particularly the North North 1994, p. 3; Armstrong 1995, p. 23; although it is unknown how and how Slope. McIntyre and Barr 1997, p. 2; Lehman often they used the books during To evaluate the effect of this harvest 2005, p. 15). The report described above surveys (Ostrand in litt. 2009, p. 1). In on the yellow-billed loon, we examined of 290 common loons taken on St. summary, we found that what we know about the number of Lawrence Island in 1995–1996 (ADFG misidentification could be occurring birds that move through the Bering and Kawerak 1997, p. 2) is considered because the survey form includes only Strait. As described in the Species by Lehman (2005, p. 15) to result from breeding plumages. We found no reason Biology section, above, all 29 marked misidentification because only two to conclude that the survey was Alaskan breeding birds used the Bering verified records of this species from the conducted any differently in 2007 than Strait or Chukotka Peninsula during island are known to date. Similarly, in previous years. migration. There are an estimated 3,000 common loons reported as harvested Above we noted the large inter-annual to 4,000 Alaskan breeding birds. It is from the Bering Strait/Norton Sound variation in harvest estimates of yellow- likely that, due to their proximity, 3,000 region in 2004 and 2005 (Table 2) likely billed loons for the Bering Strait/Norton to 5,000 eastern Siberian breeding also include other loon species, possibly Sound region (Table 2); this variation is yellow-billed loons also migrate through including yellow-billed loons. increased with the addition of the large the Bering Strait region. Observations of

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yellow-billed loons during migration on 317 birds) and the population size we could evaluate likely population the Beaufort Sea provide evidence that believe is subjected to the harvest (i.e., response to varying levels of harvest. at least some Canadian breeding birds approximately 16,000 plus 1 and 2 year Thus, the starting, stable population use this migration route, most likely the old birds; best approximated in Table 3 shown in the first column represents a 3,750 to 6,000 breeding birds estimated by the row corresponding to a population without harvest. Reference to occur on Banks and Victoria Islands population size of 18,764, which population sizes used breeding and the adjacent arctic mainland coast. includes 1 and 2 year olds) show that a population sizes of 4,000, 10,000, Thus, we believe it is likely that a large hypothetical stable population that 16,000 and 32,000 breeding birds, and part of the rangewide population moves experienced added harvest of 317 birds were then adjusted to include an through the Strait and is subject to would decline by half in 41 years, or additional population component harvest there. We do not know whether less if the harvest is larger or varies comprised of individuals (likely 1- and the actual rangewide breeding among harvest estimates for recent years 2-year olds) that remain at sea and are population is closer to 16,000 or 32,000, (Table 3). Even if there are 37,528 not counted during summer surveys of but as discussed in the Population Size yellow-billed loons in the rangewide tundra habitats. The next three data section, we believe it is likely closer to population subject to harvest (which we columns represent three starting levels 16,000. think is unlikely, as discussed above), a of harvest corresponding to recent We next evaluated whether hundreds harvest of 317 birds would cause the harvest estimates for the Bering Straits of yellow-billed loons being harvested population to decline by half in 83 region. The fourth data column annually would be unsustainable to the years. We believe this harvest and represents population response to rangewide population. We examined a associated declines would be harvest levels that vary among years, population model developed by the U.S. unsustainable to the rangewide which reflects reported variation in Geological Survey (USGS) to test the population, causing a long-term harvest and satellite tracking data that sensitivity or response of the population decrease in abundance that would be indicate inter-annual variation in to a range of possible harvest levels difficult to reverse due to the low migratory behavior through the Bering (Table 3; Schmutz 2009, p. 15). The reproductive potential of the species. It Strait. For all harvest levels, the model was constructed to begin with is important to note that this analysis mortality rate, rather than mortality stable populations (i.e., lambda = 1.00), does not take into account that number, from harvest is kept constant and then examined whether harvest additional mortality, such as harvest in across the years of each population caused additional declines. The model other parts of Alaska, Russia, or Canada, projection. In each cell, there are two considered a range in harvest mortality or from other sources, could exacerbate numbers. The first is annual population rates and population sizes to reflect our the rate of decline from a stable growth rate, given the indicated harvest uncertainty about these parameters. We population. and the population that such harvest is believe the model includes the entire Table 3. Model results of the effects of allocated to. Second is the number of range of possible values for the size of various harvest scenarios on trend and years from present until the population the affected population. population size of yellow-billed loons. falls below half of current size. These The model suggests that for all The starting model predicted a stable harvest estimates and corresponding scenarios, harvest would cause an population (trend = 1.0). This model predicted population responses do not otherwise stable population to decline used productivity data from yellow- consider possible additional harvest (i.e., lambda declines from 1.00 to billed loons on the Colville Delta, and occurring outside of the Bering Straits values below 1.00) (Table 3). The annual survival rates allocated among age region in other portions of the species’ average values for harvest that we classes similar to Mitro et al. (2008) for life cycle. This model assumes hunting believe are most likely (i.e., hundreds; common loons, but with an adjustment mortality is additive and not best approximated in Table 3 by the factor to achieve hypothetical compensatory. From Schmutz 2009, p. column corresponding to a harvest of population stability so that the model 15.

Beginning harvest level to set mortality rate

Reference population ...... 45 317 1,077 Annually rotate between 45, 317, and 1,077

N = 4,508 ...... 0.9900 0.9297 0.7611 0.8937 70 10 3 6

N = 10,372 ...... 0.9957 0.9695 0.8962 0.9538 162 23 7 15

N = 18,764 ...... 0.9976 0.9832 0.9426 0.9745 295 41 12 27

N = 37,528 ...... 0.9988 0.9916 0.9713 0.9873 601 83 24 54

In summary, although there is information available to us at this time. billed loons in Alaska is in the uncertainty about the reported numbers We believe that the data are reliable hundreds. Based on this information, of yellow-billed loons harvested in enough to conclude it is likely that the large number of yellow-billed loons Alaska, these surveys represent the best recent annual average harvest of yellow- from Alaskan, Russian, and Canadian

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breeding areas that are likely to use the Chukotka regions) communities within harvesting yellow-billed loons from May Bering Strait in migration, and the 100 km (62 mi) of the coastline by the through October, while twenty-two model results presented in Table 3, we Goose, Swan, and Study Group of communities did not report harvest of conclude that the potential impact of Northern Eurasia from 2002–2005 yellow-billed (or unidentified) loons. the Alaska harvest on the rangewide (Syroechkovski and Klokov 2007, p. 8) The estimated yearly harvest (reported yellow-billed loon population is included loons. Yellow-billed loons as a range) was 2.6–8.2 yellow-billed significant. It is possible that recent high reported (by previous year recall of and 1.4–5.8 unidentified loons (Priest harvest estimates represent a new hunters) varied among villages (range 0– and Usher 2004; tables). Inuvialuit phenomenon not yet reflected in 58), with only three villages reporting harvest surveys were conducted from population trend information, although harvesting 10 or more birds. Harvest 1988 to 1997 (Inuvialuit Harvest Study we do not have information on whether was greatest in northern Chukotka, 2003). Loons, including yellow-billed the harvest will increase or decrease in where the species nests and where one loons, were reported harvested from the future. Harvest at the present village reported egg harvest of 44 eggs May through July in three of six magnitude, even if occurring every few in one year. The species’ range was not communities surveyed. Estimated mean years, will cause a rangewide decline completely surveyed because loons annual harvest of yellow-billed loons for that constitutes a threat to the yellow- were not the focus of the survey the region was 10 ± 8 SD, and 1 ± 2 SD billed loon. (Syroechkovski and Klokov 2007, p. 1). additional unidentified loons per year However, based on these surveys, as (Inuvialuit Harvest Study 2003; tables). II. Russia well as the nationwide estimate Sahtu Region surveys were conducted The Red Data Book of the Russian provided by the Russian Academy of from 1998 to 2003 (Bayha and Snortland Federation (2001, p. 367) states ‘‘during Sciences (Syroechkovskiy 2008, pp. 2), 2002, 2003, 2004). (Yellow-billed loons the nesting period, loons are often we estimate tens to possibly 200 yellow- occur only in the northern Sahtu killed/harvested by the indigenous billed loons are harvested by region.) No yellow-billed loons were population for food and pelts subsistence hunters annually in Russia, reported harvested, but a total of 5 particularly in the northeast of Russia.’’ virtually all affecting the Russian unidentified loons were harvested over Other information comes from a recent breeding population (the breeding the 6 survey years (less than 1 per year) review from the Russian Academy of population is estimated to be 5,000 to from May to August (Bayha and Sciences to the Service, which reported 8,000). The effect of an annual harvest Snortland 2002, 2003, 2004; tables), current yellow-billed loon harvest of of 200 birds on a population of this size with no extrapolation to the entire approximately 200 per year, including is significant, particularly if the Sahtu region. Based on these data, we for protection of fishing nets population is subject to additional estimate low tens of yellow-billed loons (Syroechkovskiy 2008, p. 1–2). The harvest in migration through the Bering are harvested by subsistence hunters review also noted that in former times Strait (as described under the Alaska annually in Canada. yellow-billed loons were occasionally section above). shot by indigenous peoples for ritual IV. Conclusion for Subsistence purposes and raw materials, and III. Canada Our ability to accurately estimate the conversely, some tribes in the Yakutian Yellow-billed loons are thought to magnitude of subsistence harvest of arctic recognize loons as sacred species breed in several of the Native Land yellow-billed loons rangewide is and never shoot them (Syroechkovskiy Claims in northern Canada, but compromised by incomplete harvest 2008, p. 1). primarily in Inuvialuit and Nunavut. survey coverage of the species’ range, The basis for the Russian estimate of The land claims are in different phases possible misidentification among yellow-billed loon harvest above is of settlement, and harvest data are only species, sampling shortcomings, and our unknown. Few surveys have been available for those areas where claims limited ability to allocate harvest during conducted (limited information from have been settled and Renewable migration to source breeding Yakutia and Chukotka), the species’ Resource Boards (RRBs) are in operation populations. Correctly assessing range has not been adequately sampled, to jointly manage wildlife resources subsistence harvest of a rare species, and the species has an uneven (http://www.mb.ec.gc.ca/nature/ecb/ such as the yellow-billed loon, requires distribution across Russia da02s11.en.html, accessed October intensive surveys to adequately sample (Syroechkovskiy 2008, p. 1). No 2008). The RRBs all use similar villages within the species’ range to subsistence harvest information is methodology to determine wildlife increase precision in the harvest available from the Taymyr Peninsula, harvest levels for their areas of estimate. The data do tell us that one of the two core areas of the breeding jurisdiction. Reported possible sources yellow-billed loons have been range in arctic Russia and the only of error in these harvest estimates harvested, probably averaging in the region where Syroechkovskiy (2008, p. include enumeration, coverage and non- hundreds annually, which we believe 1–2) reported hunting of the species as response, measurement and would be unsustainable relative to the a food source. questionnaire design, recall failure, and overall yellow-billed loon population. Other harvest surveys have occurred strategic response bias (Priest and Usher Despite the limitations described in Russia, however. Unidentified loons 2004, pp. 35–42). above, the best available information were reported taken in two Providensky Harvest survey data are available from indicates that, throughout its range, on communities in 1997 and 1998 as part the Nunavut, Inuvialuit, and Sahtu average, hundreds of yellow-billed of subsistence harvest surveys for regions, which encompass the vast loons from multiple breeding areas are marine mammals (Ainana et al. 1999, p. majority of the yellow-billed loon’s harvested annually by subsistence 83; Ainana et al. 2000, pp. 66 & 71). No breeding range in Canada (see map at hunters. Population modeling suggests loons were listed in 1999 (Ainana et al. http://www.mb.ec.gc.ca/nature/ecb/ that the number of yellow-billed loons 2001), but this report included fewer da02s11.en.html, accessed November being harvested in the Bering Strait area and less detailed reports of birds. 25, 2008), from 1988 to 2003. Nunavut of Alaska alone is likely unsustainable. Service-funded waterfowl (eider) harvest surveys (Priest and Usher 2004) In addition, up to several hundred subsistence harvest surveys in 19 of 100 were conducted from 1996 through yellow-billed loons could be taken northeastern Russia (Yakutia and 2001. Five communities reported annually on Russian breeding grounds,

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and small amounts of harvest are 1999, p. 23). While loon species have the wintering grounds of the yellow- reported for other areas in Alaska and been recorded as bycatch in several billed loon in the Bering Sea, Aleutians, Canada. The lack of precision of the longline fisheries (Brothers et al. 1999), and Gulf of Alaska from September to population trend information for Alaska in general, longlines attract surface- April, they are conducted offshore. An could be preventing us from detecting feeding rather than species that observer program exists for the Alaskan the impact of this harvest on the dive to feed. demersal groundfish fisheries (including population, or the high harvest While commercial fishing occurs longline, pot, and trawl for certain estimates could represent a new across marine waters inhabited by groundfish species) but no loon bycatch phenomenon not yet manifested in our yellow-billed loons, primarily within data exist because all loon species are population trend estimates. The harvest the species’ wintering grounds, there are classified as part of the category ‘‘other’’ is also likely having an impact on several challenges to assessing the along with several other species not breeding populations that are not being impact of these fisheries on the species. typically caught by these gear types. monitored; population trends for Bycatch monitoring programs are Less than one percent (0–351 individual Canada and Russia are not known. We infrequent and do not exist for many birds) of all reported bycatch in these have no reason to believe that the fisheries in the yellow-billed loon’s fisheries has been recorded as ‘‘other’’ current level of subsistence harvest of wintering grounds. This is particularly for years 1993 through 2006 (AFSC yellow-billed loons will change in the true for the Yellow Sea, which is 2006a, pp. 9–15; AFSC 2006b, pp. 5–8; future. Because we believe that the historically one of the most intensively AFSC 2007, pp. 5–9). In addition, rangewide population of yellow-billed fished areas in the world (LME 48 2004, bycatch rates in the longline fisheries loons is subject to unsustainable levels p. 1). Where programs do exist, loons have declined in recent years (highs in of harvest, we find that subsistence are often not identified to species level 1998–1999) due to the implementation harvest is a threat to the species or are categorized as ‘‘other.’’ These of -avoidance measures (AFSC rangewide. problems might explain low reported 2006a, p. 2). levels of yellow-billed loon bycatch. In In summary, bycatch of loon species, Fishing Bycatch (Commercial and addition, actual bycatch in any given as well as unknown loons, has been Noncommercial) fishery is likely to be low due to the reported in limited observer-program Incidental take (‘‘bycatch’’) from species’ low densities and widespread coverage of Alaskan gill-net fisheries commercial and subsistence fisheries distribution. that occur within the yellow-billed poses a risk to yellow-billed loons due loon’s range. While no bycatch of Alaska to direct mortality caused by yellow-billed loons has been reported, entanglement or accidental drowning in The Alaskan commercial fisheries available data are limited and lacking gear. Gear type, location, and timing most likely to catch yellow-billed loons for some parts of the species’ range. In affect both frequency and intensity of are gill-net fisheries in the Gulf of addition, there is no available bycatch rates. Yellow-billed loons are Alaska (Prince William Sound and Cook information that suggests take levels believed to be attracted to nets by Inlet) and Southeast Alaska. While these will change in the future. entangled fish or other loons (J. Bacon fisheries overlap spatially with areas in litt. 2008, p. 1). Yellow-billed loons used by yellow-billed loons, they occur Washington State and British Columbia spend the majority of the year foraging primarily during summer when adults Loon entanglement has been reported in coastal waters; therefore, coastal and an unknown proportion of in commercial gill-net fisheries in fisheries are more likely to encounter immatures have moved north to arctic Washington’s Puget Sound, Hood Canal, loons than pelagic fisheries. Thus, our habitats. Willapa Bay, Grays Harbor, and the primary concern is assessing the current No bycatch data are available from Columbia River. At least 1 yellow-billed level of bycatch occurring in nearshore gill-net fisheries in Southeast Alaska, loon, 3 unidentified loons, and 11 gill-net fisheries that overlap the yellow- but limited seabird bycatch data are common loons were documented as billed loon’s range. Immature yellow- available from some Gulf of Alaska bycatch in the mid-1990s (Erstad et al. billed loons (1–2 year olds), which are fisheries with marine mammal bycatch 1994, p. 6; Pierce et al. 1994, p. 18; thought to remain on adult wintering monitoring programs. For example, Erstad et al. 1996, p. 12; and Jeffries et grounds (Earnst 2004, p. 11), might be salmon gill-net fisheries in Prince al. 1996, cited in Richardson et al. 2000, exposed to commercial fisheries William Sound and Unimak Island area p. 20). Based on season, these birds are overlapping these areas year-round. in 1990 to 1991 recorded low levels of presumably non-breeders. Fishery-wide Adult yellow-billed loons could be loon bycatch (1 unknown loon, 2 red- estimates were not extrapolated. exposed to commercial fisheries on the throated loons, and 2 common loons In British Columbia, common and wintering grounds and over a larger area from more than 9,000 sets; Wynne et al. Pacific loons have been identified as of marine coastlines during migration, 1991, p. 30; Wynne et al. 1992, pp. 47– bycatch in sockeye gill net fisheries, but as well as to subsistence fishing during 48). Another program for Cook Inlet comprise less than one percent of total migration and while on the nesting salmon drift-net and set-net fisheries bycatch reported from net fisheries from grounds. (1999–2000) also recorded low loon 1995–2001 (one individual of each numbers (2 common loons and 1 species was identified, for an estimated I. Commercial Fishing Bycatch unidentified loon in 540 sets observed; take of 31 of each species) (Smith and Loon bycatch has been documented in Manly 2006, pp. 27 & 32). Of all loons Morgan 2005, p. 25) (although a high commercial drift-net, gill-net, trap-net, observed near nets in 2000, about half proportion of bycatch was unidentified). and longline fisheries. Compared to were identified as common loons, and Based upon known seabird and other fisheries, gill-net fisheries have half were unknown loon species (Manly commercial fishing locations, Queen the greatest potential to affect loons. For 2006, p. 40). Charlotte Sound, the Scott Islands, and example, a 1998 study of bycatch in Alaska longline, pot, and trawl Cape St. James are of concern for winter gill-net fisheries on the U.S. mid- fisheries are less likely to affect this bycatch from March–June, and the Atlantic coast found that loons (red- species due to the loon’s foraging Western coast of Vancouver Island from throated and common) accounted for 89 behaviors and location of these June–September (Smith and Morgan percent of all avian bycatch (Forsell fisheries. While these fisheries overlap 2005, p. 29). These areas are all in

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yellow-billed loon wintering grounds, seabird observer program for the addition, there is no available and non-breeding yellow-billed loons Russian longline fishery was conducted information that suggests take levels might remain there throughout summer. in these waters from 2003 to 2005 will change in the future. In summary, bycatch of loon species, during a project to test methods and Norway including one yellow-billed loon, has equipment to reduce incidental seabird been reported in limited observer- bycatch (Artyukhin et al. 2006). No Fisheries occur along the entire program coverage of Washington and loons were reported as bycatch coastline of Norway, with northern British Columbia gill-net fisheries that (Artyukhin et al. 2006, p. 19). areas most intensively fished (Bakken occur within the yellow-billed loon’s In summary, yellow-billed loon 1998, p. 28). Atlantic cod (Gadus range. The available data indicate that bycatch has been reported in drift-net morhua) is the most important fishery, individuals (particularly non-breeders) fisheries within the Sea of Okhotsk and and other species fished include are vulnerable to bycatch in these the western Bering Sea. Due to the capelin, flatfish, haddock, herring, fisheries, but do not allow estimation of timing of the fisheries, most individuals lumpsucker, and salmon (Bakken 1998, the number of yellow-billed loons taken. were likely non-breeders. The data p. 28). The Lofoten fishery, a major We also have no information to predict indicate vulnerability of the species to fishery that includes one-fifth of whether current take levels will increase incidental capture in drift-net gear, but Norway’s total fishermen, primarily or decrease in the future. do not allow estimation of the total targets Atlantic cod, from February to number of yellow-billed loons taken. In April, and uses both gill nets and long Russian Far East addition, there is no available lines, along with hand lines and seines Russian drift-net fisheries for salmon, information that suggests take levels (Jentoft and Kristoffersen 1989, pp. 356– as well as net fisheries for herring, will change in the future. 357). Limited data exist on seabird mackerel, and Pacific saury occur in the bycatch in these fisheries, but loons northwest Pacific Ocean (Northridge Yellow Sea, Sea of Japan, and Coastal have been reported as bycatch in the 1991, p. 52). Bycatch data do not exist Japan cod, herring, haddock, and flatfish gill- for most of these fisheries (WWF 2004, The Yellow Sea, one of the most net fisheries all along the Norwegian p. 56), except for limited data from the heavily fished areas of the world, is coast (Bakken 1998, pp. 28 & 36). There salmon drift-net fisheries. Seabird classified by the Global International are anecdotal reports of yellow-billed bycatch was monitored for the Japanese Waters Assessment as severely affected and common loon bycatch in gill nets, salmon drift-net fishery in the Russian by overfishing, with major fisheries especially in the Lofoten Islands, and in Exclusive Economic Zone within the currently occurring at a low level Troms County to a lesser extent (Strann Sea of Okhotsk and Kuril Islands from compared to 30 years ago (LME 48 and ;stnes 2007, p. 4). Although the 1993 to 1998 and western Bering Sea 2004). Both the Yellow Sea and Sea of extent of winter bycatch is unknown, from 1993 to 2001. This fishery takes Japan are primarily fished by Japan, Strann and ;stnes (2007, p. 4) suggest, place from May through July. Yellow- China, Korea, and the Russian based on anecdotal observations, that billed loons comprised less than or Federation nearshore gill-net fleets take of yellow-billed and common loons equal to 0.02 percent of reported (Northridge 1991, pp. 52–54; LME 48 might be increasing in the Lofoten bycatch, with an extrapolated estimate 2004; LME 50 2004). There are also a Islands. of 89 yellow-billed loons, likely non- considerable number of Japanese gill-net In summary, yellow-billed loons, as breeders, within all fishery zones from fishing vessels in Japanese coastal well as other loon species, have been 1993–1998, and an additional 45 waters, with coastal vessels estimated to anecdotally reported as bycatch in individuals in the Bering Sea zone from be in the thousands (DeGange et al. Norwegian gill-net fisheries. We have no 1999–2001 (Artukhin et al. 1999, pp. 96 1993, p. 207). Various gill-net fisheries means to extrapolate available & 101; Artukhin et al. 2000, p.122; (i.e., Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus information to estimate the total number Artukhin et al. 2001, p. 83). The highest niphonius), silver pomfret (Pampus of yellow-billed loons taken. In bycatch rate (0.4 percent) for all fishery argenteus), and Chinese herring (Illisha addition, other than anecdotal zones occurred in the area bordering the elongata)) occur during different information that suggests take levels in Northern edge of the Sea of Okhotsk months of the year (Northridge 1991, the Lofoten Islands are increasing, we (from 1993 to 1998) (Artukhin et al. pp. 53 & 54; Zhang and Kim 1999, p. do not have evidence that take levels 1999, p. 96; Artyukhin and Burkanov 167), including overlap in time and will change in the future. 2000, p. 108). Overall, catch rates of location with non-breeders and adult yellow-billed loons were similar to but wintering yellow-billed loons. The level II. Subsistence-Fishing Bycatch slightly higher than those reported for of seabird bycatch from most of these Subsistence fishing is an important other loons (arctic and red-throated). coastal fisheries is unknown (DeGange component of the customs, traditions, Unidentified birds comprised less than et al. 1993, p. 209). Longline fisheries and economies of many indigenous or equal to 0.05 percent of bycatch. No conducted by Japan, China, and the groups in the arctic. Across the breeding yellow-billed loons have been reported Republic of Korea are also known to range of the yellow-billed loon, rural as bycatch in the Russian salmon drift- occur (Brothers et al. 1999), but bycatch residents fish primarily using gill nets, net fishery (Y. Artukhin in litt. 2008, p. information is unavailable. although some angling and ice jigging 1), which exceeded the Japanese salmon In summary, no data are available on occurs (Craig 1987, p. 17). Gill-net use harvest in 2003 (WWF 2004, p. 56). the level of yellow-billed bycatch from is localized near villages and fish Longline and trawl fisheries also gill-net fisheries in the Yellow Sea, Sea camps, in marine inlets and lagoons, occur in the Russian Far East by of Japan, or coastal Japan. Due to the lakes, and rivers, depending on season Russian, Japanese, Korean, and vulnerability of the species to incidental and target fish species (Craig 1987, p.17, American companies (Artyukhin et al. capture in gill nets and extensive Bacon in litt. 2008). During the breeding 2006, p. 7). These year-round fisheries activity of these fisheries overlapping in season, yellow-billed loons will forage for cod, halibut, and rockfish are located timing and location with the loon’s in large lakes close to their nests (Earnst primarily in western Bering Sea, Pacific adult wintering range, bycatch likely 2004, p. 4), as well as other nearby Ocean waters of Kamchatka, and Sea of occurs. However, we have no means to lakes, rivers, and marine areas (Earnst Okhotsk (Artyukhin et al. 2006, p. 6). A assess the current level of take. In 2004, pp. 6–7), where the potential for

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bycatch in subsistence fisheries exists. yellow-billed loon subsistence bycatch under Factor A and earlier in Factor E). Because yellow-billed loons are widely because not all fishers were contacted Indirect effects of contaminants or dispersed across their nesting grounds, (Hepa and Bacon 2008, p. 2). pollution, such as alterations in prey however, a large proportion of the In conclusion, yellow-billed loon abundance, were also discussed under breeding population is likely not bycatch in commercial fisheries has Factor A. exposed to localized subsistence fishing. been documented anecdotally or by Ecological characteristics can be used Limited observations confirm that observer programs in Washington State, to estimate the relative risk of yellow-billed loons have been Russia, and Norway. No data exist from contaminants to a species. These inadvertently caught in subsistence gill large portions of the species’ wintering include trophic status (species higher in nets in Canada, Russia, and the United range (Yellow Sea, Sea of Japan, and a food chain are more likely to States, although the level of bycatch is coastal Japan), but bycatch is likely to accumulate persistent pollutants), not extensively documented. In Canada, occur in extensive gill net fisheries that pollution point sources, location researchers on Victoria Island overlap with wintering yellow-billed (including migratory pathways), and documented yellow-billed loon loons. We lack information to explain lifespan (long-lived individuals have entanglement in nets on several the difference in catch rates reported more time to accumulate persistent occasions, including one instance where from various observer programs. We do compounds). Yellow-billed loons are seven birds were found dead in nets in not have enough information to relatively long-lived birds, and being a single day (Sutton 1963 p.1; Parmelee extrapolate bycatch estimates to areas piscivorous are also trophically et al. 1967). In Russia, Syroechkovski lacking data, or to determine the elevated. Both arctic breeding areas and (2008, p. 2) reported that two reasons for number of birds taken as bycatch over temperate wintering areas have subsistence harvest were accidental time. documented pollution. It is therefore entanglement in fishing nests and For subsistence fisheries, yellow- appropriate to examine potential risk to deliberate shooting to scare loons from billed loon bycatch has been yellow-billed loons from contaminant fishing areas. The Red Data Book of the documented either anecdotally or in exposure. Russian Federation states that yellow- reporting programs on the breeding Yellow-billed loons spend the billed loon mortality in fishing nets is grounds in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. majority of the year in southern the main threat to the species (Red Data Data are limited or non-existent for large wintering areas, which are primarily Book 2001, pp, 366–367), with bycatch parts of the species’ range. Because coastal and are more likely to have rates described as ‘‘catastrophic’’ in the yellow-billed loons are widely elevated environmental concentrations Chukchi Peninsula region (Red Data dispersed across the landscape on the of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), Book 2001, pp, 366–367). We could not nesting grounds, while subsistence such as organochlorine pesticides and locate data or a source for that fishing is localized, we suspect a large polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), assessment. proportion of the breeding population is compared to northern breeding areas. In Alaska, information on loon not exposed to subsistence fishing. We Twenty-four out of 29 yellow-billed bycatch from subsistence fishing is do not have enough information to loons fitted with transmitters on Alaska available only for the ACP, where extrapolate subsistence bycatch breeding grounds wintered in Asian Inupiat Eskimos use yellow-billed loon accounts to areas lacking data or to waters (Schmutz 2008, p. 1) that have parts for subsistence and ceremonial evaluate likely population-level affects. been demonstrably affected by purposes (Hepa and Bacon 2008, p. 1). Yellow-billed loon bycatch data are pollution. For example, Ma et al. (2001, With implementation of Alaska spring/ primarily anecdotal and cannot be pp. 133–134) reported high levels of summer migratory bird subsistence- extrapolated to estimate total bycatch persistent organic pollutants (DDT and harvest regulations in 2003, the yellow- levels or rates. Although yellow-billed PCBs) and petroleum-derived billed loon was officially closed to loon mortality from commercial and contaminants in the intertidal zone of harvest (Hepa and Bacon 2008, p. 1). subsistence gill-net fisheries currently the Bohai and Yellow Seas off China. In In 2005, an exception for the North affects yellow-billed loons at the Korea, PCBs were greater in fish and Slope region was incorporated into the individual level, we do not have enough birds from industrially contaminated regulations allowing possession for evidence of bycatch to show population- areas of the Nakdong estuary than non- subsistence use of up to 20 (total for the level impacts. The ACP breeding industrial areas (Choi et al. 1999, p. region each year) yellow-billed loons population is the only one for which we 233). Other studies document inadvertently caught in subsistence nets have trend information. That trend is contamination of Asian sea sediments (50 CFR Part 92). As a result of this slightly declining or stable, and so we and biota, including fish and birds, that provision, the North Slope Borough do not have evidence that bycatch is support potential exposure for wintering Department of Wildlife Management currently affecting the species at the migratory birds such as yellow-billed compiles data on incidental bycatch population level. In addition, there is no loons (e.g., Nie et al. 2005, pp. 537–546; from a variety of sources. Two to nine available information that suggests take Oh et al. 2005, pp. 217–222; Daoji and yellow-billed loons (and some red- levels will change in the future. Daler 2004, pp. 107–113; Guruge et al. throated and Pacific loons) were Therefore, we find that bycatch is not a 1997, pp. 186–193). In a test of exposure reported as found dead in nets in each threat to yellow-billed loons now or in to persistent contaminants in Asian of three years (2005 to 2007) (Acker and the foreseeable future. wintering areas compared to northern Suydam 2006, p. 1; Acker and Suydam breeding areas, Kunisue et al. (2002, p. 2007, p. 1; Hepa and Bacon 2008, p. 10). Direct Effects of Contaminants Not 1,397) found that herring gulls (Larus Small numbers of loons, including Associated With Oil and Gas argentatus) and other migratory birds yellow-billed loons, were also reported Although contaminants can affect nesting on Lake Baikal in Russia had as found alive and released. All yellow- species through a variety of higher levels of organochlorine billed loons collected in 2007 were mechanisms, below we discuss direct contaminants on arrival from Asian reportedly utilized for subsistence, effects on individuals or reproduction, wintering areas than at the end of the including ceremonial purposes (Hepa such as mortality or embryo viability, breeding season. and Bacon 2008, p. 2). These numbers from contaminants other than those Further, sympatrically nesting red- are likely a minimum estimate of associated with oil and gas (discussed throated loons from the ACP had PCB

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concentrations and formulations continue to be exposed to the at 70 years. In the case of climate (containing the most toxic PCB contaminants they are exposed to now, change, current models suggest that congeners) great enough, when as well as emerging persistent global temperatures are likely to compared to thresholds developed for contaminants such as polybrominated continue to rise for up to 50 years, even other species, to postulate teratogenic compounds. However, the Service and if greenhouse gas emissions were curbed (causing abnormal development) or its partners plan to monitor contaminant today (Meehl et al 2007, p. 749). other reproductive effects (Schmutz et exposure, mortality, and productivity in However, we are not currently able to al. in review, p. 19). Preliminary Alaska. Future contaminant risks will be link projected climate changes to satellite telemetry data indicate that identified and efforts made to address changes in arctic freshwater habitats or these red-throated loons winter in Asian them before they cause population-level their ability to support loons, and so our marine waters (Schmutz et al. in review, declines that threaten the continued ability to foresee the future is limited p. 1), similar to yellow-billed loons. existence of the species. Therefore, we until research and climate modeling These data compelled us to examine find that contaminants other than those improve our predictive ability. PCBs in yellow-billed loon eggs from associated with oil and gas are not a Although climate-change models show the ACP. We found that although PCBs threat to the yellow-billed loon now or continued decrease in the summer arctic were present in yellow-billed loon eggs in the foreseeable future. ice sheet, and it is possible that (n = 45, collected over three years), In our analysis of Factor E, we shipping will, therefore, increase, we preliminary data show the most toxic identified and evaluated other risk have no data to describe to what degree individual PCB congeners (PCBs 77 and factors, including: Oil and gas shipping pathways or frequency is 81) present in red-throated loon eggs development and vessel traffic; likely to change. With respect to were generally not present in yellow- subsistence harvest; commercial- and subsistence harvest, the best available billed loon eggs, and therefore the PCB subsistence-fishery bycatch; and data show substantial inter-annual toxicity in yellow-billed loon eggs (TEQ contaminants other than those variation in loons harvested in Alaska (toxic equivalency quotient, a measure associated with oil and gas. Based on during migration, which could be of toxicity) range = 0.176—10.39 our review of the best available related to inter-annual variation in picograms/gram (pg/g); A. Matz, U.S. information, we find that subsistence yellow-billed loon migratory behavior. Fish and Wildlife Service, unpubl. data) harvest is a threat to the yellow-billed Modeled scenarios show that even when was much lower than in red-throated loon now and in the foreseeable future. harvest varies among years within the loon eggs (TEQ mean ± SE = 237 ± 129 Foreseeable Future range defined by recent harvest pg/g), and lower than published estimates, the yellow-billed loon In considering the foreseeable future population continues to decline over thresholds for embryonic toxicity in as it relates to the status of the yellow- other avian species, such as 227 pg/g in billed loon, we considered the stressors time. Although we have no information great blue heron (Ardea herodias) eggs acting on the species. We considered the that subsistence harvest throughout the (Hoffman et al. 1996, pp. 191). We are historical data to identify any relevant range of the yellow-billed loon will currently evaluating other contaminants existing trends that might allow for either increase or decrease in the future, in yellow-billed loon eggs and blood reliable prediction of the future (in the we have no reason to believe that from the coastal plain and the Seward form of extrapolating the trends). We harvest of yellow-billed loons will not Peninsula of Alaska, but based on the also considered whether we could continue to vary from year to year red-throated loon data (presented in reliably predict any future events that within the range of levels incurred over Schmutz et al. in review), we were most might affect the status of the species, recent years. Our ability to assess concerned about the PCBs. recognizing that our ability to make current bycatch in fishing nets is limited In conclusion, we have few data on reliable predictions in the future is by poor data, and we have no empirical most of the contaminants that could limited by the variable quantity and basis with which to predict even the directly affect yellow-billed loons quality of available data. Further, direction of trends in the effects of this throughout their range. Additional predictability varies significantly among activity into the future. Although the range-wide data on productivity, risk factors, and in some cases, even amount of oil and gas development and population trends, and concentrations geographically within a single factor. shipping traffic will likely increase in of persistent contaminants will allow us Based on the lack of proposed the future, the associated risk is to more fully evaluate this risk factor. onshore oil and gas development within reasonably likely to be partly or wholly However, data from an ongoing multi- the yellow-billed loon’s range in offset by improved technologies and agency study in Alaska show that Canada, it is reasonably likely that no regulation. We do not have evidence yellow-billed loon eggs do not have population-level impacts will be that marine pollution or contaminants concentrations of toxic PCBs thought to incurred at least until development will have an increased or decreased affect reproduction. Because yellow- occurs. In contrast, in Russia, although effect on yellow-billed loons in the billed loons nesting in Canada, and it is likely that oil and gas development future. some proportion of those nesting in will increase in the future, our Available data indicate a stable or Russia, likely winter in Asian seas or on understanding of the species’ slightly declining trend for the ACP the Pacific coast of North America, we distribution is so limited that it is population. Available data do not allow assume that PCB and other persistent difficult to reliably assess the likely us to establish a trend for other breeding contaminant concentrations in their impact of even existing oil and gas populations. Overall numbers of yellow- eggs would be equal to or less than development on the yellow-billed loon, billed loons are cautiously estimated those from the ACP, which are known much less the impact of projected future between 16,000 and 32,000 birds on to winter in Asia. The contaminant development on the loon. In Alaska, breeding grounds worldwide, which, loading for yellow-billed loons some increased terrestrial oil and gas considering the wide distribution of the wintering in the North Sea is unknown, development is likely to occur species most of the year, is enough to but those loons represent a small beginning in the next decade, and the make it unlikely that the species is at proportion of the total population. In period from exploration through risk from stochastic events because of its the future, yellow-billed loons could production to abandonment is estimated small numbers. Thus, the foreseeable

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future includes consideration of the Finding within the foreseeable future. We ongoing effects of current risk factors In our review of the status of the believe that oil and gas activities in and threats at comparable levels. yellow-billed loon, we carefully various parts of the loon’s range are likely to increase in the future. In Significant Portions of the Range examined the best scientific and commercial information available. We Alaska, we determined that Federal and The Act defines an endangered identified a number of potential threats State of Alaska regulations currently in species as one ‘‘in danger of extinction to this species, including: Oil and gas place will likely mitigate future effects throughout all or a significant portion of development, marine pollution and of terrestrial oil and gas development, its range,’’ and a threatened species as overfishing, exposure to contaminants, and therefore development in Alaska is not considered a threat to the species one ‘‘likely to become an endangered climate change, subsistence- and now or in the foreseeable future. In species within the foreseeable future commercial-fishing bycatch, and Russia, terrestrial oil and gas throughout all or a significant portion of subsistence harvest. To determine development is occurring at the western its range.’’ The term ‘‘significant portion whether these risk factors individually edge of the Russian breeding range, and of its range’’ is not defined by the or collectively put the species in danger it is unknown whether this activity statute. For the purposes of this finding, of extinction throughout its range, or are overlaps with loon nesting habitat. Most a significant portion of a species’ range likely to do so within the foreseeable importantly, even if a local range is an area that is important to the future, we first considered whether the contraction has occurred, we find no conservation of the species because it risk factors were causing a population reason to conclude impacts extend contributes meaningfully to the decline, or were likely to do so in the representation, resiliency, or beyond the local scale at the edge of the future. range. In Canada, there has been little redundancy of the species. The Information on population size and overlap between oil and gas contribution must be at a level such that trends for the yellow-billed loon is its loss would result in a decrease in the development and the species’ range, and limited. Overall population size is we are aware of none projected for the ability to conserve the species. unknown, but probably at the low end If an analysis of whether a species is near future. We also found that although of the range between 16,000 and 32,000 marine oil and gas development is likely threatened or endangered in a loons on breeding grounds. Population significant portion of its range is to increase in various parts of the loon’s trends are available for the ACP range, the wide distribution and low appropriate, we engage in a systematic breeding grounds from waterfowl process that begins with identifying any density of the species in the marine surveys, and these surveys suggest that environment make it unlikely that portions of the range of the species that the ACP breeding population is stable or warrant further consideration. The range associated impacts including marine oil slightly declining. Limited surveys have spills will put the species at risk of of a species can theoretically be divided been conducted only in small parts of into portions in an infinite number of extinction. the Russian and Canadian ranges, so Climate change is likely to continue ways. However, there is no purpose in population sizes for these ranges are for at least the next 50 years, but there analyzing portions of the range that are gross approximations, and no is substantial uncertainty as to how not reasonably likely to be significant information on trends is available. climate change, described in Factor A, and threatened or endangered. To There are reports of range contractions will affect yellow-billed loon terrestrial, identify only those portions that warrant at the edges of the Russian breeding freshwater, and marine habitats. For further consideration, we determine range, but these reports are example, if native prey fish species are whether there is substantial information unsubstantiated, and there are also extirpated, other suitable prey species indicating that (i) the portions may be unsubstantiated reports of Russian may colonize the area, replacing significant and (ii) the species may be in breeding areas where yellow-billed loon extirpated species to some degree. We danger of extinction there or likely to numbers could be increasing. Therefore, do not know whether large-scale become so within the foreseeable future. based on the best available information, degradation of continuous permafrost, In practice, a key part of this analysis is we find that the only trend information where the majority of yellow-billed whether the threats are geographically we have indicates a stable or slightly loons breed, and the subsequent impacts concentrated in some way. If the threats declining trend for the ACP population. to lake levels and vegetation will occur to the species are essentially uniform We evaluated existing and potential on a scale that will affect loon throughout its range, no portion is likely stressors on the yellow-billed loon to populations in the foreseeable future. to warrant further consideration. determine what affects on the species Climate-change effects on the temperate- Moreover, if any concentration of were currently occurring, whether these latitude wintering habitat of the yellow- threats applies only to portions of the stressors were likely to increase or billed loon include increases in ocean range that are unimportant to the decrease in the future, and which of the temperature and decreases in primary conservation of the species, such stressors may be expected to rise to the productivity and dissolved oxygen portions will not warrant further level of a threat to the species, either levels, which might affect numbers and consideration. rangewide or at the population level. distribution of prey species. The On the basis of an analysis of factors We examined several stressors for magnitude and form of these effects are that may threaten the yellow-billed which we have little information on highly uncertain, but would most likely loon, we have determined that listing is whether they will increase in the future. involve northward shift of prey items, warranted throughout its range. We did not find that bycatch by which could be mirrored by their Therefore, it is not necessary to conduct subsistence or commercial fishing, predators such as wintering yellow- further analysis with respect to the pollution in wintering habitats, or billed loons. significance of any portion of its range contaminants are threats to the yellow- There are multiple hypothetical at this time. We will further analyze billed loon. An unknown number of mechanisms associated with climate whether threats may be disproportionate individuals are taken in fisheries, which change that could potentially affect and warrant further consideration as an adds to other forms of mortality. loons and their breeding and non- SPR at such time that we develop a Next we considered whether any of breeding habitats. Unlike documented proposed listing determination. the risk factors are likely to increase and predicted declines in sea ice, an

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obligate habitat for other arctic species is a threat to the species rangewide. In Future Conservation such as polar bears, we lack predictive light of this level of subsistence harvest We have determined that the listing of models on how climate change will occurring despite existing MBTA the yellow-billed loon is warranted but affect yellow-billed loon terrestrial, regulations that prohibit such harvest, precluded by pending proposals for freshwater, and marine habitats. we also find that inadequate regulatory other species with higher listing Manifestations of climate-mediated mechanisms are a threat to the species. priorities and actions. Our changes throughout arctic and We next considered whether the recommendation of a listing priority temperate yellow-billed loon habitats existing level of threats causes us to number of 8 (described below) will will emerge if reliable, predictive conclude that the species is in danger of provide time and opportunity to models are developed, but currently extinction now or in the foreseeable implement conservation and better there is little certainty regarding the future. If population size were to monitor the species’ status and threats. timing, magnitude, and net effect of decline or the range were to contract, Here we provide a summary of our impact. Therefore, given current recovery or re-colonization would likely commitment to the conservation of limitations in available data and climate occur slowly. Individuals in the yellow-billed loons. models, we find that climate change is population are so widespread during As described in the ‘‘Conservation not a threat to yellow-billed loons now most of the year that high adult Agreement for the Yellow-billed Loon or in the foreseeable future. However, mortality is unlikely. However, during (Gavia adamsii),’’ the Service and its currently unknown detrimental effects migration, yellow-billed loons are partners plan to: (1) Implement specific of climate change could be additive to subject to subsistence harvest that actions to protect yellow-billed loons other threats and stressors on the appears to be unsustainable based on and their breeding habitats in Alaska population. the best available information. The total from potential impacts of land uses and We also considered whether any of population is uncertain, but based on management activities, including oil the ongoing risk factors began recently the best available information, the and gas development; (2) inventory and enough that their effects are not yet population, estimated at 16,000 to monitor yellow-billed loon breeding manifested in a long-term decline in 32,000 birds on breeding grounds, could populations in Alaska; (3) reduce the population numbers, but are likely to decline substantially if unsustainable impact of subsistence activities have that effect in the future. harvest continues. Future subsistence (including fishing and hunting) on Information from recent subsistence harvest in Alaska is enough in itself to yellow-billed loons in Alaska; and (4) harvest surveys indicate potentially constitute a threat to the species conduct biological research on yellow- high levels of harvest compared to rangewide. In addition, up to several billed loons, including response to earlier surveys. There are not enough hundred yellow-billed loons could be management actions. years of data, and there is not enough taken annually on Russian breeding We believe that the strategies outlined precision in the accuracy of the surveys, grounds, and small amounts of harvest in the agreement demonstrate the to indicate whether there is a trend of are reported for other areas in Alaska partners’ commitment to prioritize increasing harvest. All marked Alaskan and Canada. Other stressors discussed yellow-billed loon conservation in breeding birds used the Bering Strait or above may not rise to the level of a Alaska. To fulfill the first strategy, we Chukotka Peninsula during migration; threat individually, but when taken will continue to work with partners to in addition, it is likely that most collectively with the effects of maintain their commitment to actions Russian breeding loons and at least subsistence hunting in other areas, may protecting loons. In particular, we will some Canadian breeding birds also reduce the rangewide population even work closely with the BLM to monitor migrate through the Bering Strait region. further. Given the small population and and maintain protection of loons on Thus, we believe it is likely that a large the existence of subsistence harvest and NPR-A, as expressed in their recent part of the rangewide population moves inadequate regulatory mechanisms as memorandum on the yellow-billed loon through the Strait and is subject to threats, we believe the species is likely (Galterio, in litt. 2008, pp. 1–3). For the harvest there. The best available to become in danger of extinction second strategy, we will continue to information indicates that, on average, within the foreseeable future. Therefore, inventory yellow-billed loons through hundreds of yellow-billed loons from we find that listing the yellow-billed our waterfowl surveys on the ACP and breeding areas throughout its range are loon throughout its range is warranted. through loon-specific surveys currently harvested annually by subsistence While we find that listing the yellow- in operation on the Seward Peninsula, hunters. Population modeling suggests billed loon is warranted, an immediate and we will investigate the potential for that the number of yellow-billed loons proposal to list this species is precluded initiating yellow-billed-loon-specific being harvested in the Bering Strait area by other higher priority listing actions, surveys. For the third strategy, we are of Alaska alone is likely unsustainable. which we address below. working closely with the Alaska The lack of precision of the population We have reviewed the available Migratory Bird Co-management Council trend information for Alaska could be information to determine if the existing (AMBCC) and the State of Alaska to preventing us from detecting the impact and foreseeable threats pose an acquire reliable, verifiable information of this harvest on the population, or the emergency. We have determined that an on subsistence harvest and fishing high harvest estimates could represent a emergency listing is not warranted for bycatch levels in Alaska, and to new phenomenon not yet taken into this species at this time because, within substantially increase education and account in our population trend the current distribution of the species law enforcement efforts to reduce levels estimates. The harvest is also likely throughout its range, there are at least of this threat. Finally, we support the having an impact on breeding some populations of the yellow-billed ongoing research by the U.S. Geological populations that are not being loon that exist in relatively natural Survey and others on yellow-billed monitored in Canada and Russia. conditions that are unlikely to change in loons in Alaska, and will continue to Because we believe that the rangewide the short-term. However, if at any time advocate for further research where it population of yellow-billed loons is we determine that emergency listing of will inform management of yellow- subject to unsustainable levels of the yellow-billed loon is warranted, we billed loons, such as understanding harvest, we find that subsistence harvest will initiate an emergency listing. effects of disturbance on nesting loons

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to ensure that buffers separating loons as the basis for our decisions; writing Thus, through the listing cap, the from human activity are adequate. and publishing documents; and critical habitat subcap, and the amount Research and management of yellow- obtaining, reviewing, and evaluating of funds needed to address court- billed loons are needed outside Alaska, public comments and peer review mandated critical habitat designations, and we will support and advocate for comments on proposed rules and Congress and the courts have in effect such work. In particular, we need to incorporating relevant information into determined the amount of money understand population sizes and trends final rules. The number of listing available for other listing activities. for Russian and Canadian breeding actions that we can undertake in a given Therefore, the funds in the listing cap, populations, migration corridors, and year also is influenced by the other than those needed to address where breeding populations winter. We complexity of those listing actions; that court-mandated critical habitat for also encourage managers in both is, more complex actions generally are already listed species, set the limits on countries to take an active role more costly. For example, during the our determinations of preclusion and conserving loons where substantial past several years, the cost (excluding expeditious progress. industrial development occurs, or where publication costs) for preparing a 12- Congress also recognized that the other threats such as subsistence harvest month finding, without a proposed rule, availability of resources was the key or fishing bycatch occur. Finally, habitat has ranged from approximately $11,000 element in deciding whether, when conditions in wintering grounds, for one species with a restricted range making a 12-month petition finding, we especially in Asia, need to be and involving a relatively would prepare and issue a listing understood and managed so that they uncomplicated analysis to $305,000 for proposal or instead make a ‘‘warranted continue to support loons. In particular, another species that is wide-ranging and but precluded’’ finding for a given it will be critical to increase awareness involving a complex analysis. species. The Conference Report of pollution impacts in marine habitats We cannot spend more than is accompanying Public Law 97–304, in Asia, and to develop regulations to appropriated for the Listing Program which established the current statutory reduce pollution levels, so that these without violating the Anti-Deficiency deadlines and the warranted-but- wintering areas continue to support Act (see 31 U.S.C. 1341(a)(1)(A)). In precluded finding, states (in a yellow-billed loons. addition, in FY 1998 and for each fiscal discussion on 90-day petition findings year since then, Congress has placed a that by its own terms also covers 12- Preclusion and Expeditious Progress statutory cap on funds which may be month findings) that the deadlines were Preclusion is a function of the listing expended for the Listing Program, equal ‘‘not intended to allow the Secretary to priority of a species in relation to the to the amount expressly appropriated delay commencing the rulemaking resources that are available and for that purpose in that fiscal year. This process for any reason other than that competing demands for those resources. cap was designed to prevent funds the existence of pending or imminent Thus, in any given fiscal year (FY), appropriated for other functions under proposals to list species subject to a multiple factors dictate whether it will the Act (for example, recovery funds for greater degree of threat would make be possible to undertake work on a removing species from the Lists), or for allocation of resources to such a petition proposed listing regulation or whether other Service programs, from being used [that is, for a lower-ranking species] promulgation of such a proposal is for Listing Program actions (see House unwise.’’ warranted but precluded by higher- Report 105–163, 105th Congress, 1st In FY 2008, expeditious progress is priority listing actions. Session, July 1, 1997). that amount of work that could be The resources available for listing Recognizing that designation of achieved with $8,206,940, which is the actions are determined through the critical habitat for species already listed amount of money that Congress annual Congressional appropriations would consume most of the overall appropriated for the Listing Program process. The appropriation for the Listing Program appropriation, Congress (that is, the portion of the Listing Listing Program is available to support also put a critical habitat subcap in Program funding not related to critical work involving the following listing place in FY 2002 and has retained it habitat designations for species that are actions: proposed and final listing rules; each subsequent year to ensure that already listed). Our process is to make 90-day and 12-month findings on some funds are available for other work our determinations of preclusion on a petitions to add species to the Lists of in the Listing Program: ‘‘The critical nationwide basis to ensure that the Endangered and Threatened Wildlife habitat designation subcap will ensure species most in need of listing will be and Plants (Lists) or to change the status that some funding is available to addressed first and also because we of a species from threatened to address other listing activities’’ (House allocate our listing budget on a endangered; annual determinations on Report No. 107–103, 107th Congress, 1st nationwide basis. The $8,206,940 was prior ‘‘warranted but precluded’’ Session, June 19, 2001). In FY 2002 and used to fund work in the following petition findings as required under each year until FY 2006, the Service has categories: compliance with court orders section 4(b)(3)(C)(i) of the Act; proposed had to use virtually the entire critical and court-approved settlement and final rules designating critical habitat subcap to address court- agreements requiring that petition habitat; and litigation-related, mandated designations of critical findings or listing determinations be administrative, and program habitat, and consequently none of the completed by a specific date; section 4 management functions (including critical habitat subcap funds have been (of the Act) listing actions with absolute preparing and allocating budgets, available for other listing activities. In statutory deadlines; essential litigation- responding to Congressional and public FY 2007, we were able to use some of related, administrative, and listing inquiries, and conducting public the critical habitat subcap funds to fund program management functions; and outreach regarding listing and critical proposed listing determinations for high-priority listing actions. The habitat). The work involved in high-priority candidate species; allocations for each specific listing preparing various listing documents can however, in FY 2008 we were unable to action are identified in the Service’s FY be extensive and may include, but is not do this because all of the critical habitat 2008 Allocation Table (part of our limited to: gathering and assessing the subcap funds were needed to address administrative record). best scientific and commercial data our workload for designating critical For FY 2009, on September 23, 2008 available and conducting analyses used habitat. Congress passed a Continuing

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Resolution to operate the Federal 50 individuals, or fewer than 4 believe there is time to reduce this government at the FY 2008 level of populations, comprised a list of threat before it causes further funding through March 6, 2009 (Pub. L. approximately 40 candidate species population-level impacts. While we 110–329). Although we are currently (‘‘Top 40’’). These 40 candidate species conclude that listing the yellow-billed developing the allocations for specific have had the highest priority to receive loon is warranted, an immediate listing actions that we will fund during funding to work on a proposed listing proposal to list this species is precluded FY 2009, we anticipate funding work to determination. As we work on proposed by other higher priority listing, which comply with court orders and court- listing rules for these 40 candidates, we we address below. Therefore, work on a approved settlement agreements, work are applying the ranking criteria to the proposed listing determination for the on statutorily required petition findings, next group of candidates with LPN of 2 yellow-billed loon was, and will final listing determinations for those and 3 to determine the next set of continue to be in the next year, species that were proposed for listing highest priority candidate species. precluded by work on higher priority with funds from FY 2008, and To be more efficient in our listing candidate species (i.e., species with LPN continued work on proposed listing process, as we work on proposed rules of 2); listing actions with absolute determinations for high-priority species. for these species in the next several statutory, court ordered, or court- In FY 2007, we had more than 120 years, we are preparing multi-species approved deadlines; and final listing species with a listing priority number proposals when appropriate, and these determinations for those species that (LPN) of 2, based on our September 21, may include species with lower priority were proposed for listing with funds 1983, guidance for assigning an LPN for if they overlap geographically or have from FY 2008. This work includes all each candidate species (48 FR 43098). the same threats as a species with an the actions listed in the tables below Using this guidance, we assign each LPN of 2. In addition, available staff under expeditious progress. candidate an LPN of 1 to 12, depending resources are also a factor in on the magnitude of threats (high vs. determining high-priority species As explained above, a determination moderate to low), immediacy of threats provided with funding. Finally, that listing is warranted but precluded (imminent or nonimminent), and proposed rules for reclassification of must also demonstrate that expeditious taxonomic status of the species (in order threatened species to endangered are progress is being made to add or remove of priority: monotypic genus (a species lower priority, since as listed species, qualified species to and from the Lists that is the sole member of a genus); they are already afforded the protection of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife species; or part of a species (subspecies, of the Act and implementing and Plants. (Although we do not discuss distinct population segment, or regulations. it in detail here, we are also making significant portion of the range)). The We assigned the yellow-billed loon an expeditious progress in removing lower the listing priority number, the LPN of 8 based on moderate magnitude species from the list under the Recovery higher the listing priority (that is, a and imminent threats. One or more of program, which is funded by a separate species with an LPN of 1 would have the threats discussed above is occurring line item in the budget of the the highest listing priority). Because of throughout the range of the yellow- Endangered Species Program. As the large number of high-priority billed loon, either in its breeding or explained above in our description of species, we further ranked the candidate wintering grounds, or during migration. the statutory cap on Listing Program species with an LPN of 2 by using the However, the primary threat to the funds, the Recovery Program funds and following extinction-risk type criteria: species that caused us to conclude actions supported by them cannot be International Union for the listing is warranted is subsistence considered in determining expeditious Conservation of Nature and Natural harvest, despite the species being closed progress made in the Listing Program.) Resources (IUCN) Red list status/rank, to hunting under the Migratory Bird As with our ‘‘precluded’’ finding, Heritage rank (provided by Treaty Act. Although subsistence expeditious progress in adding qualified NatureServe), Heritage threat rank harvest is ongoing, the numbers taken species to the Lists is a function of the (provided by NatureServe), and species have varied substantially between years. resources available and the competing currently with fewer than 50 For the reasons discussed above, demands for those funds. Given that individuals, or 4 or fewer populations. although we believe subsistence harvest limitation, we find that we made Those species with the highest IUCN is a substantial threat to the species, we expeditious progress in FY 2008 and are rank (critically endangered), the highest have concerns about the precision of the making progress in FY 2009 in the Heritage rank (G1), the highest Heritage numbers reported. In addition, if Listing Program. This progress included threat rank (substantial, imminent changes in management are preparing and publishing the following threats), and currently with fewer than implemented in the near future, we determinations:

FY 2008 COMPLETED LISTING ACTIONS (SOME COMPLETED IN FY2009)

Publication date Title Actions FR pages

10/09/2007 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 72 FR 57278–57283. the Black-Footed Substantial. (Phoebastria nigripes) as Threat- ened or Endangered. 10/09/2007 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, Not 72 FR 57273–57276. the Giant Palouse Earthworm as substantial. Threatened or Endangered. 10/23/2007 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, Not 72 FR 59983–59989. the Mountain Whitefish (Prosopium substantial. williamsoni) in the Big Lost River, ID, as Threatened or Endangered.

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FY 2008 COMPLETED LISTING ACTIONS (SOME COMPLETED IN FY2009)—Continued

Publication date Title Actions FR pages

10/23/2007 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, Not 72 FR 59979–59983. the Summer-Run Kokanee Popu- substantial. lation in Issaquah Creek, WA, as Threatened or Endangered. 11/08/2007 ...... Response to Court on Significant Por- Response to Court ...... 72 FR 63123–63140. tion of the Range, and Evaluation of Distinct Population Segments, for the Queen Charlotte Goshawk. 12/13/2007 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of 12-month Petition Finding, 72 FR 71039–71054. List the Jollyville Plateau sala- Warranted but Precluded. mander (Eurycea tonkawae) as En- dangered With Critical Habitat. 1/08/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 1312–1313. the Pygmy Rabbit (Brachylagus Substantial. idahoensis) as Threatened or En- dangered. 1/10/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on Petition To List the Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 1855–1861. Amargosa River Population of the Substantial. Mojave Fringe-Toed Lizard (Uma scoparia) as Threatened or Endan- gered With Critical Habitat. 1/24/2008 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of 12-month Petition Finding, 73 FR 4379–4418. List the Siskiyou Mountains Sala- Not Warranted. mander (Plethodon stormi) and Scott Bar Salamander (Plethodon asupak) as Threatened or Endan- gered. 2/05/2008 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of 12-month Petition Finding, 73 FR 6660–6684. List the Gunnison’s Prairie Dog as Warranted. Threatened or Endangered. 02/07/2008 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of Review ...... 73 FR 7236–7237. List the Bonneville Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki utah) as Threatened or Endangered. 02/19/2008 ...... Listing Phyllostegia hispida (No Com- Proposed Listing, Endangered ...... 73 FR 9078–9085. mon Name) as Endangered Throughout Its Range. 02/26/2008 ...... Initiation of Status Review for the Notice of Status Review ...... 73 FR 10218–10219. Greater Sage- (Centrocercus urophasianus) as Threatened or Endangered. 03/11/2008 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of 12-month petition finding, 73 FR 12929–12941. List the North American Wolverine Not warranted. as Endangered or Threatened. 03/20/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 14950–14955. the U.S. Population of Coaster Substantial. Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) as Endangered. 04/29/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 23170–23172. the Western Sage-Grouse Substantial. (Centrocercus urophasianus phaios) as Threatened or Endan- gered. 04/29/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on Petitions To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 23173–23175. the Mono Basin Area Population of Substantial. the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as Threatened or Endangered. 05/06/2008 ...... Petition To List the San Francisco Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 24611–24915. Bay-Delta Population of the Longfin Substantial. Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) as Endangered. 05/06/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 24915–24922. Kokanee (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Substantial. Lake Sammamish, Washington, as Threatened or Endangered. 05/06/2008 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of Status Review ...... 73 FR 24910–24911. List the White-tailed Prairie Dog (Cynomys leucurus) as Threatened or Endangered.

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FY 2008 COMPLETED LISTING ACTIONS (SOME COMPLETED IN FY2009)—Continued

Publication date Title Actions FR pages

05/15/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 28080–28084. the Ashy Storm-Petrel Substantial. (Oceanodroma homochroa) as Threatened or Endangered. 05/15/2008 ...... Determination of Threatened Status Final Listing, Threatened ...... 73 FR 28211–28303. for the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Throughout Its Range; Final Rule. 05/15/2008 ...... Special Rule for the Polar Bear; In- Interim Final Special Rule ...... 73 FR 28305–28318. terim Final Rule. 05/28/2008 ...... Initiation of Status Review for the Notice of Status Review ...... 73 FR 30596–30598. Northern Mexican Gartersnake (Thamnophis eques megalops). 06/18/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, Not 73 FR 34686–34692. the Long-Tailed Duck (Clangula substantial. hyemalis) as Endangered. 07/10/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To Re- Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 39639–39643. classify the Delta Smelt Substantial. (Hypomesus transpacificus) From Threatened to Endangered. 07/29/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 43905–43910. the Tucson Shovel-Nosed Snake Substantial. (Chionactis occipitalis klauberi) as Threatened or Endangered with Critical Habitat. 8/13/2008 ...... Proposed Endangered Status for Re- Proposed Critical Habitat, Proposed 73 FR 47257–47324. ticulated Flatwoods Salamander; Listing, Endangered. Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for Frosted Flatwoods Sala- mander and Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander. 9/9/2008 ...... 12-month Finding on a Petition To Notice of 12-month petition finding, 73 FR 52235–52256. List the Bonneville Cutthroat Trout Not warranted. as Threatened or Endangered. 10/15/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 61007–61015. the Least Chub. Substantial. 10/21/2008 ...... Listing 48 Species on Kauai as En- Proposed Listing, Endangered; Pro- 73 FR 62591–62742. dangered and Designating Critical posed Critical Habitat. Habitat. 10/24/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, Not 73 FR 63421–63424. the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle substantial. as Endangered. 10/28/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 73 FR 63919–63926. the Dusky Tree Vole (Arborimus Substantial. longicaudus silvicola) as Threat- ened or Endangered. 11/25/2008 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Notice of 12-month petition finding, 73 FR 71787–71826. List the Northern Mexican Warranted but precluded. Gartersnake (Thamnophis eques megalops) as Threatened or En- dangered With Critical Habitat; Pro- posed Rule. 12/02/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice 90-day Petition Finding, Sub- 73 FR 73211–73219. the Black-tailed Prairie Dog as stantial. Threatened or Endangered. 12/05/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Notice 90-day Petition Finding, Sub- 73 FR 74123–74129. the Sacramento Mountains stantial. Checkerspot Butterfly (Euphydryas anicia cloudcrofti) as Endangered with Critical Habitat. 12/18/2008 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition to Notice 90-day Petition Finding, Sub- 73 FR 76990–76994. Change the Listing Status of the stantial. Canada Lynx. 1/06/2009 ...... Partial 90-Day Finding on a Petition Notice 90-day Petition Finding, Not 74 FR 419–427. To List 475 Species in the South- substantial. western United States as Threat- ened or Endangered With Critical Habitat.

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FY 2008 COMPLETED LISTING ACTIONS (SOME COMPLETED IN FY2009)—Continued

Publication date Title Actions FR pages

2/05/2009 ...... Partial 90-Day Finding on a Petition Notice 90-day Petition Finding, Not 74 FR 6122–6128. To List 206 Species in the Midwest substantial. and Western United States as Threatened or Endangered With Critical Habitat.

Our expeditious progress also statutory timelines, that is, timelines they overlap geographically or have the included work on listing actions, which required under the Act. Actions in the same threats as the species with the were funded in FY 2008, but have not bottom section of the table are high high priority. Including these species yet been completed to date. These priority listing actions. These actions together in the same proposed rule actions are listed below. Actions in the include work primarily on species with results in considerable savings in time top section of the table are being an LPN of 2, and selection of these and funding, as compared to preparing conducted to meet deadlines set by a species is partially based on available separate proposed rules for each of them court. Actions in the middle section of staff resources, and when appropriate, in the future. the table are being conducted to meet include species with a lower priority if

ACTIONS FUNDED IN FY 2008 BUT NOT YET COMPLETED

Species Action

Actions With Court Order/Settlement Agreement Deadlines

SW DPS ...... 12-month petition finding. Greater and Western Sage Grouse ...... 12-month petition finding.

Actions With Statutory Deadlines

Phyllostegia hispida ...... Final listing. Black-footed albatross ...... 12-month petition finding. Mount Charleston blue butterfly ...... 12-month petition finding. Goose Creek milk-vetch ...... 12-month petition finding. Mojave fringe-toed lizard ...... 12-month petition finding. White-tailed prairie dog ...... 12-month petition finding. Pygmy rabbit (rangewide) ...... 12-month petition finding. Wyoming pocket gopher ...... 90-day petition finding. Llanero coqui ...... 90-day petition finding. American pika ...... 90-day petition finding. 206 species (partially completed) ...... 90-day petition finding. 475 Southwestern species (partially completed) ...... 90-day petition finding.

High Priority Listing Actions

21 Oahu candidate species (16 plants, 5 damselflies) (18 with LPN =2, Proposed listing. 3 with LPN = 3, 1 with LPN =9). 3 southeast aquatic species (Georgia pigtoe, interrupted rocksnail, Proposed listing. rough hornsnail) 1 (all with LPN = 2). Casey’s june beetle (LPN = 2) ...... Proposed listing. Sand dune lizard (LPN = 2) ...... Proposed listing. 2 southwest springsnails (Pyrgulopsis bernadina (LPN = 2), Proposed listing. Pyrgulopsis trivialis (LPN = 2)). 3 southwest springsnails (Pyrgulopsis chupaderae (LPN = 2), Proposed listing. Pyrgulopsis gilae (LPN = 11), Pyrgulopsis thermalis (LPN = 11)). 2 mussels (rayed bean (LPN = 2), snuffbox No LPN) ...... Proposed listing. 2 mussels (sheepnose (LPN = 2), spectaclecase (LPN = 4),) ...... Proposed listing. Ozark hellbender 2 (LPN = 3) ...... Proposed listing. Altamaha spinymussel (LPN = 2) ...... Proposed listing. 5 southeast fish (rush darter (LPN = 2), chucky madtom (LPN = 2), Proposed listing. yellowcheek darter (LPN = 2), Cumberland darter (LPN = 5), laurel dace (LPN = 5)). 3 Colorado plants (Pagosa skyrocket (Ipomopsis polyantha) (LPN = 2), Proposed listing. Parchute beardtongue (Penstemon debilis) (LPN = 2), Debeque phacelia (Phacelia submutica) (LPN = 8)). 1 Funds for listing actions for 3 of these species were also provided in FY 2007. 2 We funded a proposed rule for this subspecies with an LPN of 3 ahead of other species with LPN of 2, because the threats to the species were so imminent and of a high magnitude that we considered emergency listing if we were unable to fund work on a proposed listing rule in FY 2008.

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We have endeavored to make our improve the reliability of subsistence upon request (see FOR FURTHER listing actions as efficient and timely as harvest data, and to substantially INFORMATION CONTACT). possible, given the requirements of the increase education and law enforcement relevant law and regulations, and efforts to reduce levels of these threats. Author constraints relating to workload and This review will determine if the The primary authors of this 12-month personnel. We are continually species should be removed or finding are the staff members of the considering ways to streamline maintained as a candidate species, or if Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office processes or achieve economies of scale, a change in status is warranted, (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT). such as by batching related actions including the need to make prompt use together. Given our limited budget for of emergency listing procedures. Authority implementing section 4 of the Act, these We intend that any proposed listing actions described above collectively action for the yellow-billed loon will be The authority for this action is section constitute expeditious progress. as accurate as possible. Therefore, we 4 of the Endangered Species Act of The yellow-billed loon will be added will continue to accept additional 1973, as amended (16 U.S.C. 1531 et to the list of candidate species upon information and comments from all seq.). publication of this 12-month finding. concerned governmental agencies, the Dated: March 12, 2009. We will continue to monitor the status scientific community, industry, or any Rowan W. Gould, of this species as new information other interested party concerning this becomes available, and information on finding. Acting Director, Fish and Wildlife Service. the species’ distribution, status, and [FR Doc. E9–6012 Filed 3–24–09; 8:45 am] References Cited threats will be evaluated every year. In BILLING CODE 4310–55–P particular, we will work with the A list of the references used to AMBCC and the State of Alaska to develop this proposed rule is available

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