AGRHYMET MONTHLY BULLETIN N° M-05/05 July 2005
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COMITÉ PERMANENT INTER- ÉTATS DE LUTTE PERMANENT INTERSTATE COMMITTEE CONTRE LA SÉCHERESSE DANS LE SAHEL FOR DROUGHT CONTROL IN THE SAHEL AGRHYMET MONTHLY BULLETIN N° M-05/05 July 2005 The overall good and rather well distributed rainfall in time and space, early sowing, good vegetative state of crops and relatively calm phytosanitary situation should not mask the July localized crop water stress, flooding and overflow of bodies of water in areas to be monitored during this cropping season. The July 2005 monthly rainfall was poorly distributed in time. Admittedly, the fortnight of the month under review was characterized by abundant and well distributed rains. On the other hand, a break in rainfall, which ranged from a few days to two weeks, was observed during the second fortnight of July. As a result, the rainfall amounts recorded were below normal in many locations of the agricultural zone of the CILSS member countries. These localised rainfall deficits were observed in the Wilayas of Guidimaka and Hodh el Chargui, Mauritania, the southern part of the area of Tambacounda, the Ziguinchor and Niaye areas, Senegal, Western Gambia, almost all over the agricultural zone of Guinea Bissau and Mali respectively, southwestern and central Burkina Faso, the area of Tillabéry and the southern part of that of Dosso, Niger, and the prefectures1 of Guéra, Salamat, Ouaddaï, Middle Chari, Eastern and Western Logones, Chad (figures 1.1 and 1.2). Seasonal cumulative rainfall as at July 31st, 2005, was deficient in the coastal Niaye strip, Senegal, some places in the areas of Kayes, Sikasso and Ségou, Mali, Southwestern and Western Burkina Faso, here and there in the northeastern and southern parts of the areas of Tillabéry and Dosso respectively, Niger and the extreme South of Chad (figures 1.3 and 1.4). With the start of the rainy season in earnest in July across the entire Sahel, characterized this year by relatively regular rains from June to July with rather significant cumulative rainfall, water levels rose in virtually all the perennial or ephemeral watercourses. The regularity of rains until mid-July across Central Sahel resulted in unusual streamflows in some temporary watercourses. The break in rainfall observed during the last dekad of July in the same area slowed down the rise in water levels. At the same period in Western Sahel, appreciable rains fell, which resulted in flooding in some places, particularly in The Gambia and Mali. These good rainfall conditions are responsible for a substantial rise in water levels in medium-sized reservoirs and even the overflows in some bodies of water. With the expected intensification of rainfall in terms of significance and regularity in August over the entire Sahel, water levels will increase significantly across most basins with risks of overflow and flooding. Favourable conditions for sowing under wet conditions were experienced early in much of the agricultural zone of the CILSS member countries where sowing was generalized well before mid-July 2005. This year, there were fewer sowing failures and resowing than before due to good rainfall distribution in space and time. On the whole, sowing dates were similar to average dates, except for some places of the Wilayas of Gorgol and Hodh el Chargui, Mauritania, the area of Kolda, the western and southern parts of those of Tambacounda and Matam respectively, Senegal, western and central Gambia, the areas of Cacheu and Oio, Guinea Bissau, the southern part of the area of Koulikoro and here and there in the areas of Ségou and Mopti, Mali, the area of Boucle du Mouhoun, Southwestern and Eastern, Burkina Faso, the two Logones and some places of the prefecture of Mayo Kebbi and 1 Administrative division AGRHYMET Regional Centre P.O. Box 11011 NIAMEY (NIGER) TEL: (227) 73.31.16 / 73.24.36 FAX: (227) 73.24.35 Website: http://www.agrhymet.ne E-mail: [email protected] South Central Chad, where more than 10-day delays were observed. Early sowing of the same order were also observed in some places of Northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, the area of Mopti, Mali, northern Burkina Faso and the area of Zinder, Niger. This situation resulted in very heterogeneous phenological conditions, ranging from the seedling stage to the beginning of reproductive stage in the areas of the Sahelian domain and from the full vegetative growth stage to the reproductive stage in the areas of the Sudanese domain. Overall, crops conditions were adequate. Yet, as a result of the July poor rains, crops suffered from water stress in the Wilayas of Hodh el Chargui and locally in that of Guidimaka, Mauritania, the Niaye and Louga areas, Senegal, the northern part of the areas of Ségou and Mopti, Mali, Central Burkina Faso, the northern part of the area of Tillabéry, Niger and some places of the prefecture of Chari Baguirmi, Chad. In these locations, soil water reserves were low during the period under review and crops will need substantial moisture in August in order to go through their reproductive stage (critical stage) under good conditions. Otherwise, decreases in yield could be observed in the above-mentioned areas. The analysis of combined risk indicators (deficient rainfall, late sowing and crop water requirement satisfaction index) for all the CILSS member countries as at July 31st, 2005 enabled to produce a map of areas at risk to be monitored during this cropping season (figure 3.5). It pointed out that the area of Ségou, Mali, presented the highest risk since all the three indicators have been observed in some places of this area. Areas at moderate risk are those where two of these indicators were observed at any place in the area and areas at low risk are those where only one indicator was observed. The details of the indicators is indicated in the attached table I. The phytosanitary situation remained relatively calm during the month under review. With the exception of Chad where desert locust infestations were believed to persist and were likely to develop, the other front-line countries (Mauritania, Mali and Niger) reported a situation calm since the beginning of the cropping season. In the agricultural zone, the pressure of other pests also seemed to have been low. With the improvement in ecological conditions, small-scale hatching of desert locusts is likely in Mauritania, Mali and Niger. Significant development is possible in Chad, considering the ecological conditions, which prevailed during the month under review and the probable locust situation in Ouaddaï, Kanem and Batha. Greater pressure of flower-feeding insects, grasshoppers and grain-eating birds is also expected during the coming weeks. The break in rainfall, observed during the second dekad of July, had not significantly affected the gradual and normal growth of the vegetation across the Sahel. There was a significant northward advance of the vegetation front (figure 4.1) in the central part of the Sahelian area. The presence of the vegetation was observed beyond latitude 17° in the South of Mauritania and Central Niger. The vegetation front, which was very dense, progressed up to the Senegal River in the West, was beyond latitude 16° N in the South of Mauritania, stretched over much of the Southwest and the Niger River Inland Delta of Mali. It covered the entire agricultural zone of Chad and the Lake Chad area. CAPE VERDE Preparation of farms, putting inputs in place and dry sowing of maize continued in many places of the archipelago. Sowing of maize and beans under wet conditions must have started across the humid strata of the Southern islands, particularly Santiago and Fogo. AGRHYMET MONTHLY BULLETIN – July 2005, Volume 15, N° M-05 2 MAURITANIA Sowing intensified during the first fortnight of July in much of the agricultural zone, except for the Wilaya of Hodh El Garbi where sowing had already started in late June. Sowing dates were a bit late in the Wilaya of Guidimaka and Hodh El Chargui, early in that of Hodh El Garbi and equivalent to the average elsewhere in the country’s agricultural zone. Overall, as at July 31st, 2005, crop water requirements were satisfied, except locally for the Wilayas of Guidimaka and Hodh El Chargui where crops suffered from moisture deficit, particularly during the last dekad of July. No manifestation of desert locusts was reported during the month under review. Although no desert locust was reported over the period under review, one should remain alert because ecological conditions favourable for its breeding prevail in the Southeast and Central part of the country. SENEGAL With the start of the rainy season in earnest in Senegal, streamflows in all the ephemeral watercourses were sometimes significant in July. At Kidira, a very significant flood wave was recorded in the Falémé during the month under review. At Kolda, the first streamflows were observed in the Casamance River, as of July 8th, 2005. At Bakel, the Senegal River discharges, subjected to regulation by the Manantali dam, were on the rise during the first two dekads of the month under review before decreasing slightly over the last dekad. With the start of flow in the basin’s non-regulated tributaries, the change in water levels in the valley will depend on the instructions governing of the Manantali dam management to meet the various needs and the natural water inflows from these tributaries. If the good rainfall conditions experienced so far continue across the basin, good streamflow conditions are expected in the Senegal River basin in August and September as already indicated by the update of seasonal hydrological and climatic forecasts. As a result, there are non-negligible risks of flooding across the valley considering the water inflows expected from non-regulated tributaries.