An Utterly Fluid GOP Insen Race Unfolds
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V23, N34 Thursday, April 26, 2018 An utterly fluid GOP INSen race unfolds of the campaign where they burnish key talking Braun perceived as having points, like Todd Young did in his race against Marlin nominal advantage, but Stutzman in 2016. Young repeatedly mentioned he was a Marine in his final debates to the point of some undecideds still dominate ridicule. But news coverage picked up this angle, achieving audience saturation of that portion of By BRIAN A. HOWEY Young’s resume. INDIANAPOLIS – The Republican U.S. Senate Of the current field, Braun appears to have a primary heads into its final fortnight as a “tossup,” mostly slight edge because his “outsider businessman” branding because the scant polling available signals a large pool, comes as close to Young’s consistent Marine Corps brand- between 30 and 40%, of undecided voters. ing effort. In first quarter FEC filings, Braun has loaned his Anecdotally, we see a light turnout, in part be- campaign an unprecedented (for Indiana) $5.5 million, has cause of the lack of enthusiasm for President Trump while $2.42 million cash on hand, and has the ability to write Luke Messer, Mike Braun and Todd Rokita continue to Continued on page 3 emphatically embrace him. This should be the homestretch Legislators via caucus By TREVOR FOUGHTY CapitolandWashington.com INDIANAPOLIS – Back in October of 2013, Niki Kelly wrote an article for the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette analyzing the number of state legislators who first came “For the good of all involved, we into the General Assembly by way of a partisan caucus, rather than need to put the ‘college’ back in through a general election. It speaks to the thoroughness of her college basketball.” reporting (and the impact of the - Condoleezza Rice, unveiling analysis) that five years later it’s still common to hear hallway NCAA basketball reforms denizens at the Statehouse quote that includes ending the her finding that nearly one in five legislators first arrived there by one and done NBA scheme. bypassing the ballot box. But that 19% statistic was Rice headed a Commission in the context of the legislature on College Basketball Page 2 as constituted in 2013. It was the first in the Senate). time such an analysis had been widely When voters approved a Con- published, and–probably because it stitutional amendment in 1970 that al- was difficult to track down the num- lowed the General Assembly to begin bers just for that specific group of 150 meeting annually, filling legislative legislators, according to Kelly’s own vacancies suddenly became a press- account to me – also the last. And so, ing concern. Waiting until the next as people learn about how robust my general election to hold a special elec- Howey Politics Indiana database is at CapitolAndWashington. tion could mean two sessions might com, it’s perhaps not surprising that pass before a vacancy was filled in the WWHowey Media, LLC 405 the most oft-asked question I get is Senate (and would never be filled in Massachusetts Ave., Suite about updated numbers on caucus- the House) thus robbing constituents 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 elected legislators. of representation; but holding one-off www.howeypolitics.com But before we dive into special elections in relatively small those numbers, a bit of history: Indi- districts could incur substantial costs ana’s 1851 Constitution gave the gov- in what would likely be low-turnout Brian A. Howey, Publisher ernor the ability to call for a special affairs. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington election to fill legisla- So, Hoosier voters Cameron Carter, Editor tive vacancies as need- approved another Con- Joel Weyrauch, Editor ed. But because the stitutional amendment Mary Lou Howey, Editor legislature only met in 1972 that allowed the for about two months General Assembly to Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo every other year under sort through the issue Jack E. Howey, Editor that document, vacan- and legislatively set the Emeritus cies generally weren’t method for filling vacan- noticed, and there cies. was little perceived Ultimately, the meth- Subscriptions need to fill them. If od that was selected HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 a vacant Senate seat was the caucus process HPI Weekly, $350 had more than two we’re familiar with today, HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly years left on the term, which requires a seat be Ray Volpe, Account Manager it would likely be filled Rep. David Ober is the latest filled within 30 days, and at a special election has led to the average 317.602.3620 to resign a seat, opening up a held during the next caucus in HD82 tonight where time of vacancy plum- email: [email protected] general election; by David Abbott of Rome City is the meting to just 20 days contrast, House vacan- only candidate filed. in both chambers. Since cies generally weren’t that law took effect, the Contact HPI filled unless there was a pressing need caucus process has been utilized 108 [email protected] for votes in a special session. times (the 109th will come Thurs- Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 If we set aside the mass res- day evening in the HD82 caucus to Washington: 202.256.5822 ignation of 51 Democrats in the March replace Dave Ober). Business Office: 317.602.3620 1869 attempt to block ratification of That translates into roughly the 15th Amendment (and subsequent 4.8 vacancies per biennium, a 33% special elections in which every mem- increase over the pre-caucus period. © 2018, Howey Politics ber won reelection), under Indiana’s The reason for that increase, though, Indiana. All rights reserved. 1851 Constitution we have 216 legisla- might be a bit surprising. To illustrate Photocopying, Internet forward- tive vacancies from 1852-1972. Of this, I’ve come up with four reasons ing, faxing or reproducing in those, 92 were in the House and only for vacancies: A legislator has re- 23 were filled via special election (just signed for ostensibly non-political any form, whole or part, is a 25%). reasons; a legislator has died; a legis- violation of federal law without Of the 124 Senate vacan- lator assumed another elected office permission from the publisher. cies, 93 were filled via special election and had to vacate their seat in order (75%). Across both chambers, there to serve; the legislator left for other were about 3.6 vacancies per bien- political reasons, such as being ap- nium, and the average length of a pointed to a non-elected post by the vacancy was right around 11 months governor (either a state agency job or (336 days in the House, and 355 days judicial appointment). Page 3 Most probably assume (as do some of the people Congress; five from members winning local elections; two interviewed in Kelly’s 2013 piece) that the caucus process from members being elected lieutenant governor; and two incentivizes partisans to leave their seat early to ensure from members being appointed to statewide office. someone of the same party replaces them as an incum- And so with all of that background out of the bent at the next election. If that were the case, though, way, here’s where things stand today: When the special you would expect the number of ostensibly non-political session convenes on May 14, there will be 29 legislators resignations to increase along with the overall vacancy serving who first came into their current office via caucus rate. (19.3%), essentially identical to the numbers Kelly found But the data doesn’t bear that out and in fact five years ago. shows the exact opposite trend: In the pre-caucus era, But while eight in 2013 won caucuses as a result there were about 2.26 resignations of this sort per bien- of death, only three are serving today after a death-relat- nium, but only 1.73 since (a 23% decrease). Similarly, I’ve ed caucus. Additionally, three more had to win a general noted in past pieces that the average length of service has election before serving in a legislative session, and another dramatically increased since 1970, so it might be reason- three had previously won general elections in the House able to assume that more legislators are dying in office as before moving to their current seat in the Senate. That they are serving longer. But again, the data doesn’t bear leaves 20 seats (about 13%) that were vacated by resig- that out; legislative deaths barely rose at all, going from nation and initially filled by someone who hadn’t yet faced 1.13 to 1.28 per biennium. voters in a legislative election. What has changed, however, is an explosion in the In opting for caucuses instead of special number of legislators assuming other elected offices. Prior elections 45 years ago, the General Assembly essentially to 1972, vacancies for this reason happened an average of determined that expediency was the most important fac- .05 times per biennium (once every 40 years) to 1.2 per tor in determining how vacancies were filled. From that biennium. While less exaggerated, the number of guber- perspective, they achieved their goal; the average length natorial appointments to non-elected posts has driven up of vacancy has been cut down more than ten-fold, and it vacancies for other political reasons from .15 per biennium isn’t clear that we’d have that many fewer vacancies under to .58 per biennium. a special elections system. It’s worth noting, however, that those numbers For instance, the 4.8 seats per biennium that are can be slightly misleading. While 27 vacancies have been currently vacated translates into a 3.2% vacancy rate; the created by a member assuming another elected office, U.S.