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DIALOGUE QUARTERLY Volume-18 No. 2 October-December, 2016 Subscription Rates : For Individuals (in India) Single issue Rs. 30.00 Annual Rs. 100.00 For 3 years Rs. 250.00 For Institutions: Single Issue Rs. 60.00 in India, Abroad US $ 15 Annual Rs. 200.00 in India, Abroad US $ 50 For 3 years Rs. 500.00 in India, Abroad US $ 125 All cheques and Bank Drafts (Account Payee) are to be made in the name of “ASTHA BHARATI”, Delhi. Advertisement Rates : Outside back-cover Rs. 25, 000.00 Per issue Inside Covers Rs. 20, 000.00 ,, Inner page coloured Rs. 15, 000.00 ,, Inner full page Rs. 10, 000.00 ,, DIALOGUE QUARTERLY Editorial Advisory Board Mrinal Miri Jayanta Madhab Editor B.B. Kumar Consulting Editor J.N. Roy ASTHA BHARATI DELHI The views expressed by the contributors do not necessarily represent the view-point of the journal. © Astha Bharati, New Delhi Printed and Published by Dr. Lata Singh, IAS (Retd.) Secretary, Astha Bharati Registered Office: 27/201 East End Apartments, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I Extension, Delhi-110096. Working Office: 23/203 East End Apartments, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I Extension, Delhi-110096 Phone : 91-11-22712454 e-mail : [email protected] web-site : www. asthabharati.org Printed at : Nagri Printers, Naveen Shahdara, Delhi-32 Contents Editorial Perspective 7 Populism or Political Thuggee? 1. North- East Scan Naga Peace Talks: Steeped in Semantics 9 Patricia Mukhim Defections Galore as Manipur Prepares for Election 12 Pradip Phanjoubam 2. Countering Jihadi Terrorism – The Ideological Challenge 15 Rajiv Kumar 3. Reflections on ‘Islamic’ Terrorism with special reference to West Asia and North Africa (WANA) 24 Anwar Alam 4. Islamic State and the Threat to India 39 Prakash Singh 5. Changing Profile of Terror in India 50 Sushant Sareen 6. Changing Profile of Terrorism in India and Abroad 56 Vappala Balachandran 7. What After the Islamic State? 72 Omair Anas 8. Kashmir Valley in Turmoil – Awaiting New Leadership 81 J.N. Roy 9. Afghanistan, Global Jihad and Intra-Islamic Fault-lines 93 B.B. Kumar DIALOGUE, Volume-18 No. 2 5 10. Islamic Terrorism in Bangladesh: The Background and Development 118 Bimal Pramanik and Mintu Barua 11. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria: Its Evolution and Consequences 127 Alvite Singh Ningthoujam 12. Book-Review How to Comprehend Islam 139 Shankar Sharan 13. Comments of Eminent Indian Thinker and Litterateur, Padmashri and Sahitya Akademy Awardee, Professor Ramesh Chandra Shah on Understanding Islam 146 14. Book-Review Window to Bhutan: A Study of Emerging New Social Patterns with Urban Educated Middle Class Working Women (1972-2013) 150 Shalini Gupta 15. Gandhi, His Thoughts and the Gandhian Institutions 153 Ramjee Singh 16. On the Health Workforce Crisis in Rural India 162 Dilip Saikia 6 DIALOGUE, Volume-18 No. 2 Editorial Perspective Populism or Political Thuggee? The death toll of the Indore-Patna Express train derailment at Kanpur reached 150 on November 22, 2016. As happens after every railway accident, ex gratia payments are announced, politicians and bureaucrats rush to the accident site, and also visit hospitals. Further, the inquiries are conducted with the announcement that the guilty shall not be spared. Even the numerous earlier reports on the railway safety are dusted off, studied afresh, and forgotten, till fresh accidents take place. We often hear about the derailment of trains, which takes place due to the old tracks needing repair, or as the existing tracks are incapable of handling speedy trains. A perusal of the derailment figures—fifty-five during 2011, forty-eight during 2012, fifty-two during 2013, sixty during 2014, thirty-seven during 2015 (up to October , and sixty-two during 2016 (up to October) — does not present a happy picture, especially when we know that track revamp will take at least 40 years as of now. Apart from track revamp, especially keeping in view the running of high speed trains, and laying new railway lines, manning thousands of unmanned railway gates, where frequent accidents and loss of life is a day to day occurring phenomenon, construction of thousands of flyovers. Here, it needs mention that casualties from railway surface crossing accidents, taking heaviest toll, account for 60% of all deaths and 30% of injuries arising from all consequential accidents on Indian Railways. It is an expedient measure keeping in view much higher number and the contemplated higher speed of the trains. Keeping these facts in view the Kakodkar Committee has recommended complete elimination of level crossings at a proposed cost of Rs. 50,000 crores. It is alleged that most of the Indian railway coaches today are ICF designed ones, which are termed by several railway expert committees as “safety risk”, and these committees advised their replacement by LHB (Linke Hoffman Busch) coaches. The ICF designed coaches, which are not meant for a speed above 80-90 kmph, piled up during DIALOGUE, Volume-18 No. 2 7 Kanpur railway accident, causing heavy toll. Although, Rail Coach Factories at Kapurthala, and Rae Bareli are manufacturing LHB coaches, and Integrated Coach factory at Chennai has also started manufacturing the same, there does not seem to be the end of the problem; at the present rate, anyway, the shift to safer LHB coaches may take 30 years at the present rate of replacement. It needs mention that out of around 44,000 coaches used today in our passenger and express trains, only 4,000 are LHB designed ones, and the remaining 40,000 are of old ICF design. Of course, many do not believe that ICF-built coaches are so much unsafe. Anyway, the replacement of the railway coaches is not the only problem, there are many others also, which need immediate tackling. But looking after the “hardware” aspect, including mechanical modernization, etc., is not enough. Meeting the “software” needs are equally essential. Needless to say that most of these are safety-related needs and measures, needing our urgent attention. These are also essential for our developmental needs. Of course, equally essential is the change in the organizational structure of the railways, which is centralized and too top-heavy at present. As mentioned above, Indian Railways needs to meet both its hardware and software demands, which will reduce its operational and systemic strain, reduce accidents and resultant loss of life, to the maximum. But all these need funds, and Indian Railways’ finances remain perilous. A recent committee has come out with 106 recommendations, the projected implementation cost of the which shall be 103,110 crore, spread over five years. Not such expenditures shall have to be incurred to save the Indian Railways from the brink of collapse. As Prime Minister, Narendra Modi himself participated in the three day ‘idea generation camp’ and is personally interested in bringing desired change, there is every hope that the bad days for the Indian Railways shall be over. For decades, the railways suffered due to the populist policies of not increasing the railway fares. The fact that this kind of populism ultimately caused the resource crunch and neglect of safety-oriented measures leading to the death of thousands, and was in reality, a political thuggee by a section of our stupid politicians was never discussed sincerely in our country. — B.B. Kumar 8 DIALOGUE, Volume-18 No. 2 North-East Scan Naga Peace Talks: Steeped in Semantics The recent incident in Ukhrul district of Manipur where Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh’s chopper was ostensibly sought to be grounded is akin to a suspense thriller. Perhaps the National Investigating Agency and the Manipur Police hot-shots have the real version. But as of now there are as many colourful adaptation of the story as there are differences between the hills and the valley. Here is one state where problems and responses to them must invariably be seen through the prism of the ethnic divide that defines Manipur. That there is no love lost between the people in the hills and the valley is a fact and it would be an exercise in self delusion to think otherwise. Writers like us who comment on issues across the region, are quickly despatched WhatsAap messages to convince us of the ‘truth’ or versions of it before we launch off. Each sender is at pains to impress upon his audience that we have to see things from his/her point of view since they are sole custodians of the truth. Hence, there were messages from Meitei friends who vented their spleen on the continued rent-seeking by the NSCN(IM) despite the ‘peace’ talks, thereby making everything terribly expensive for them in Manipur. Their rant of course does not clear our doubts about what actually happened on October 25. The Naga groups swear on everything they hold sacred that the whole drama was well orchestrated to make Ibobi Singh some sort of a hero and for the Congress to gain sympathy votes in the upcoming assembly elections. They also ask quite belligerently why Ibobi Singh wants to inaugurate a half-completed hospital project. But more than that the Tangkhul * The writer is editor, The Shillong Times and an eminent social activist, journalist and member of National Security Advisory Board. DIALOGUE, Volume-18 No. 2 9 Nagas of Ukhrul have not got over the fact that it was Ibobi Singh as CM who stopped the NSCN(IM) supremo, Thuingaleng Muivah from visiting his people and his home in Somdal village. Manipur is a state that is marked by serious discrepancies in terms of representation in the State Assembly. For instance, Chandel District with a population of 1,44,038 has only two constituencies, hence almost 72,000 people are to vote in each constituency.
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