Nuclear Reactions a volume in the series Cornell Studies in Security Affairs Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress . cornell . edu. Nuclear Reactions How Nuclear- Armed States Behave Mark S. Bell Cornell University Press Ithaca and London Copyright © 2021 by Mark Bell This book is freely available in an open access edition thanks to TOME ( Toward an Open Monograph Ecosystem)— a collaboration of the Association of American Universities, the Association of University Presses, and the Association of Research Libraries—and the generous support of the University of Minnesota. Learn more at the TOME website, available at: openmonographs . org. The text of this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC). To use this book, or parts of this book, in any way not covered by the license, please contact Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress . cornell . edu. First published 2021 by Cornell University Press Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Bell, Mark (Researcher), author. Title: Nuclear reactions : how nuclear-armed states behave / Mark S. Bell. Description: Ithaca [New York] : Cornell University Press, 2021. | Series: Cornell studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2020036416 (print) | LCCN 2020036417 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501754166 (paperback) | ISBN 9781501754173 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501754180 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Nuclear weapons—Political aspects. | International relations. | World politics. | Balance of power. Classification: LCC JZ5665 .B44 2021 (print) | LCC JZ5665 (ebook) | DDC 327.1/12—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020036416 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020036417 For Rowan Contents List of Illustrations ix Acknowl edgments xi List of Abbreviations xv Introduction: How Do New Nuclear States Behave? 1 1. Nuclear Opportunism: How States Use Nuclear Weapons in International Politics 9 2. In de pen dence and Status: The British Nuclear Experience 36 3. Apartheid and Aggression: South Africa, Angola, and the Bomb 78 4. The Foundations of a New World Order: The United States and the Start of the Nuclear Era 112 5. Past and Future Proliferators 147 Conclusion: Nuclear Revolution or Nuclear Revolutions? 164 Notes 175 Index 209 vii Illustrations Table 3.1. South African military operations in Angola before and after nuclear acquisition 97 Figures 0.1. ​The theory of nuclear opportunism 6 1.1. ​The theory of nuclear opportunism and empirical predictions 21 1.2. ​Predictions for states facing serious territorial threats or engaged in war 22 1.3. ​Predictions for states not facing serious threats but with se nior allies 24 1.4. ​Predictions for rising states not facing serious threats 26 1.5. ​Predictions for declining states not facing serious threats 27 2.1. ​The theory of nuclear opportunism applied to Britain, 1955 41 2.2. ​MIDs involving Britain over time 51 3.1. ​Southern Africa 82 3.2. ​The theory of nuclear opportunism applied to South Africa, 1979 86 ix ILLUSTRATIONS 4.1. ​The theory of nuclear opportunism applied to the United States, war time 116 4.2. ​The theory of nuclear opportunism applied to the United States, postwar 117 x Acknowl edgments This book would not have been started, let alone finished, without agreat many people. While I was an undergraduate at Oxford, Nigel Bowles and Paul Martin encouraged my interest in the academic study of politics. I would not have considered pursuing gradu ate studies in po liti cal science (let alone actually done so) without their influence or advice. At Harvard Kennedy School, where I spent two years getting a masters in public policy while also com- ing to the conclusion that I wanted a career in academia rather than in pol- icy, Matt Bunn inspired the interest in nuclear issues that motivated me to pursue a PhD and that sustained this entire project. At MIT, I could not have asked for better advisers. Barry Posen engaged with every nut and bolt of the argument in this book and offered line- by- line comments on multiple iterations of the work. The quality and impact of his scholarship is a model that I will only ever aspire to meet; his demand that scholars tackle important questions is one I will continue to seek to live up to. Vipin Narang’s mentorship and advice were critical, and he continues to be a first port of call for advice on negotiating academia. Taylor Fravel’s suggestions substantially increased the clarity of the argument and writing throughout, and his questions and comments have consistently cut to core theoretical and empirical issues. Last but not least, the intellectual influence of Frank Gavin runs throughout this book. His commitment to bringing histori- ans and po liti cal scientists together has had a profound influence on my own work. Collectively, these individuals provided a level of expertise on nuclear issues that would have been impossible to assemble at almost any other insti- tution, but the personal support and advice they provided at every turn have perhaps been even more valuable. xi ACKNOWL EDGMENTS Similarly, the tight- knit community of gradu ate students and the predoc- toral and postdoctoral fellows at MIT provided intellectual stimulation, en- couragement, and friendship. Among many others, Dan Altman, Noel Anderson, Paul Avey, Chris Clary, James Conran, Fiona Cunningham, Gene Gerzhoy, Brendan Ritten house Green, Brian Haggerty, Peter Krause, Julia Macdonald, Tim McDonnell, Nicholas Miller, Rohan Mukherjee, Reid Pauly, Josh Shifrinson, Peter Swartz, Joseph Torigian, Rachel Whitlark, Alec Worsnop, and Yiqing Xu deserve par tic u lar thanks. Many other scholars generously gave their time, advice, and comments at vari ous stages in the process. They include William Boettscher, Hal Brands, Målfrid Braut- Hegghammer, Matthew Bunn, James Cameron, Andrew Coe, Alex Downes, Peter Feaver, Matthew Fuhrmann, Charlie Glaser, Ryan Grauer, Kelly Greenhill, David Holloway, Jacques Hymans, Peter Katzen- stein, Peter Krause, Matthew Kroenig, Keir Lieber, Sean Lynn- Jones, Marty Malin, Rupal Mehta, Alex Montgomery, Steve Miller, Rich Nielsen, Benoît Pelopidas, Evan Perkoski, Mike Poznansky, Brad Roberts, Sebastian Rosato, Joshua Rovner, Scott Sagan, Rob Schub, Todd Sechser, Keith Shimko, Etel Solingen, Caitlin Talmadge, Nina Tannenwald, Monica Toft, Stephen Van Evera, Anna- Mart Van Wyk, Jane Vaynman, Stephen Walt, Nicholas Wheeler, and Cat Worsnop. This book was completed at the University of Minnesota, which has proved to be a wonderfully supportive intellectual home. I have benefited hugely from the insights, advice, friendship, and support of many colleagues, in- cluding Cosette Creamer, Bud Duvall, Paul Goren, James Hollyer, Tanisha Fazal, John Freeman, Helen Kinsella, Ron Krebs, Howie Lavine, Dan My- ers, Rob Nichols, Kathryn Pearson, Michelle Phelps, David Samuels, Jane Sumner, and Josef Woldense. The Politi cal Science Department provided the resources that enabled me to host a book workshop in November 2017, at which Hal Brands, Scott Sagan, Etel Solingen, and Nina Tannenwald, along with Bud, Ron, and Nisha, both took the book apart and provided a path forward to put it back together. Jen Spindel took notes throughout, and her forty- page summary of all the suggestions made was enormously helpful as I reconstructed and redrafted the manuscript. Thanks are also due to two undergraduate students, Cheyenne Tretter, who provided exceptional re- search and editorial assistance at several dif fer ent stages, and Josh Mohling, who copyedited the entire manuscript. In addition to the MIT Politi cal Science Department and Security Studies Program, and the University of Minnesota’s Po liti cal Science Department and College of Liberal Arts, generous financial support for this proj ect was provided by the Harvard Belfer Center’s International Security Program and Proj ect on Managing the Atom, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Tobin Project. The staff at all these institutions, including, among others, Susan Twarog, Joli Divon Saraf, Casey Johnson, Diana Gallagher, Josh Anderson, Susan Lynch, Alexis Cuttance, Tia Phan, Kyle Edwards, and Sara xii ACKNOWL EDGMENTS Flannery, provided administrative support that was a model of efficiency and allowed me to focus on research. At Cornell University Press, Roger Haydon has diligently and patiently handled my queries throughout the review and publication process, and I also thank the reviewers and editors of the Security Affairs series for their thoughtful and incisive comments on the manuscript. Amron Gravett com- piled the index and Mike Bechthold produced the map in chapter 3. Portions of this book draw on previously published articles in International Security and Journal of Strategic Studies.1 I thank MIT Press and Taylor and Francis for the permission to reprint this content. My deepest debts are those nearest to home. My family has been encour- aging, inspiring, caring, and loving. My brother and sister have supported me even though I have been mostly absent and have seen them far less than I would want over the past few years. My parents have encouraged me un- conditionally at every turn despite my being so far from home. They inspired my love of learning and intellectual curiosity about the world and are mod- els of parenting. I am more grateful than they know for every thing they have done for me, and I will keep trying to make them proud. It seems deeply inadequate that I can only offer them my gratitude. Sarah’s love, commitment, and support have been unyielding. I could not ask for a better partner. Her loyalty, compassion, and understanding have made me a better person. Our daughter Rowan arrived with impeccable tim- ing the day after I submitted the manuscript to Cornell for review, and she has transformed and enriched our lives in more ways than I can describe.