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Analyzing the Impacts of a Biogas-To- Electricity Purchase Incentive on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model

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Analyzing the Impacts of a Biogas-To- Electricity Purchase Incentive on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model ORNL/TM-2017/14 Analyzing the Impacts of a Biogas-to- Electricity Purchase Incentive on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model Kara Podkaminer Fei Xie Zhenhong Lin January 2017 Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Reports produced after January 1, 1996, are generally available free via US Department of Energy (DOE) SciTech Connect. Website http://www.osti.gov/scitech/ Reports produced before January 1, 1996, may be purchased by members of the public from the following source: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone 703-605-6000 (1-800-553-6847) TDD 703-487-4639 Fax 703-605-6900 E-mail [email protected] Website http://classic.ntis.gov/ Reports are available to DOE employees, DOE contractors, Energy Technology Data Exchange representatives, and International Nuclear Information System representatives from the following source: Office of Scientific and Technical Information PO Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Telephone 865-576-8401 Fax 865-576-5728 E-mail [email protected] Website http://www.osti.gov/contact.html This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. ORNL/TM-2017/14 Energy and Transportation Science Division ANALYZING THE IMPACTS OF A BIOGAS-TO-ELECTRICITY PURCHASE INCENTIVE ON ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT WITH THE MA3T VEHICLE CHOICE MODEL Kara Podkaminer U.S. Department of Energy Fei Xie Zhenhong Lin Oak Ridge National Laboratory Date Published: January 2017 Prepared by OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6283 managed by UT-BATTELLE, LLC for the US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................................v LIST OF SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES ......................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ vii ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................. ix ACKNOWLEGEMENTS .............................................................................................................. xi ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. xiii 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background on the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Biogas-to-Electricity Pathway ...........................................................................................................................1 1.2 Use of Vehicle Choice Models in Policy Making ...........................................................3 1.3 Paper Objectives and Organization .................................................................................3 2. Method ......................................................................................................................................5 2.1 MA3T Model ...................................................................................................................5 2.2 Policy Representation in the MA3T Model .....................................................................6 2.3 Sensitivities ...................................................................................................................10 2.4 Example Calculation of the Upfront Purchase Incentive ..............................................11 2.5 Scenarios .......................................................................................................................13 3. Results ....................................................................................................................................15 3.1 Biogas-to-Electricity Capacity ......................................................................................15 3.2 Percent of Value Passed on to Consumer ......................................................................18 3.3 Impact of Equivalence Value ........................................................................................20 3.4 2025 and 2030 EV Fleet and Annual Sales Across Scenarios ......................................21 3.5 Impact on Fuel Use ........................................................................................................22 3.6 Impact of Biogas Capacity ............................................................................................24 4. Discussion ..............................................................................................................................27 5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................31 6. References ..............................................................................................................................33 7. Supplementary Information ....................................................................................................35 iii iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Participants in the biogas-to-electricity pathway and credit allocation ............................2 Figure 2. The MA3T model ..............................................................................................................7 Figure 3. Alteration of MA3T model for eRIN policy analysis .......................................................7 Figure 4. Fleet data for BEVs and PHEVs as a function of the biogas cap ...................................16 Figure 5. Annual sales data for BEVs and PHEVs as a function of the biogas cap ......................17 Figure 6. Relative change in EV fleet as a function of the biogas cap ..........................................18 Figure 7. Relative change in PHEV and BEV fleet as a function credit allocation .......................19 Figure 8. Relative change in PHEV and BEV fleet as a function of equivalence value ...............21 Figure 9. Relative change in gasoline and electricity consumption ...............................................23 Figure 10. Biogas availability for eRIN generation .......................................................................25 LIST OF SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES Figure S1. Fleet and annual sales data for the 41 TWh, 75% scenario ..........................................35 Figure S2. Electric fleet and annual sales data for the 41 TWh, 75% scenario .............................35 Figure S3. Percent electric fleet and percent annual sales data for the 41 TWh, 75% scenario ........................................................................................................................36 Figure S4. Fleet data as a function of the biogas cap.....................................................................37 Figure S5. Annual sales data as a function of the biogas cap ........................................................38 Figure S6. EV percent fleet as a function of the biogas cap. .........................................................39 Figure S7. EV percent annual sales as a function of the biogas cap ..............................................40 v vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Key input assumptions to calculate credit value ..............................................................11 Table 2. Sample eRIN credit value calculation for a MY2017 BEV100 car .................................12 Table 3. Credit value by vehicle class offered at purchase by year for the 15 TWh/year, 100% credit allocation, 5.24 kWh/RIN scenario ...............................................................13 Table 4. Summary of scenario space evaluated .............................................................................14 Table 5. Fleet and annual sales totals across scenarios in 2025.....................................................22 Table 6. Fleet and annual sales totals across scenarios in 2030.....................................................22 Table 7. Maximum yearly eRIN generation ..................................................................................28 vii viii ACRONYMS BEV Battery electric vehicle CARB California Air Resources Board DOE Department of Energy eVMT Electric vehicle miles traveled EV Electric vehicle eRIN Electricity Renewable Identification Number EPA Environmental Protection Agency ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation LDV Light duty
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