ORNL/TM-2017/14 Analyzing the Impacts of a Biogas-to- Electricity Purchase Incentive on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model Kara Podkaminer Fei Xie Zhenhong Lin January 2017 Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Reports produced after January 1, 1996, are generally available free via US Department of Energy (DOE) SciTech Connect. 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ORNL/TM-2017/14 Energy and Transportation Science Division ANALYZING THE IMPACTS OF A BIOGAS-TO-ELECTRICITY PURCHASE INCENTIVE ON ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT WITH THE MA3T VEHICLE CHOICE MODEL Kara Podkaminer U.S. Department of Energy Fei Xie Zhenhong Lin Oak Ridge National Laboratory Date Published: January 2017 Prepared by OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6283 managed by UT-BATTELLE, LLC for the US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................................v LIST OF SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES ......................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ vii ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................. ix ACKNOWLEGEMENTS .............................................................................................................. xi ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. xiii 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background on the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Biogas-to-Electricity Pathway ...........................................................................................................................1 1.2 Use of Vehicle Choice Models in Policy Making ...........................................................3 1.3 Paper Objectives and Organization .................................................................................3 2. Method ......................................................................................................................................5 2.1 MA3T Model ...................................................................................................................5 2.2 Policy Representation in the MA3T Model .....................................................................6 2.3 Sensitivities ...................................................................................................................10 2.4 Example Calculation of the Upfront Purchase Incentive ..............................................11 2.5 Scenarios .......................................................................................................................13 3. Results ....................................................................................................................................15 3.1 Biogas-to-Electricity Capacity ......................................................................................15 3.2 Percent of Value Passed on to Consumer ......................................................................18 3.3 Impact of Equivalence Value ........................................................................................20 3.4 2025 and 2030 EV Fleet and Annual Sales Across Scenarios ......................................21 3.5 Impact on Fuel Use ........................................................................................................22 3.6 Impact of Biogas Capacity ............................................................................................24 4. Discussion ..............................................................................................................................27 5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................31 6. References ..............................................................................................................................33 7. Supplementary Information ....................................................................................................35 iii iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Participants in the biogas-to-electricity pathway and credit allocation ............................2 Figure 2. The MA3T model ..............................................................................................................7 Figure 3. Alteration of MA3T model for eRIN policy analysis .......................................................7 Figure 4. Fleet data for BEVs and PHEVs as a function of the biogas cap ...................................16 Figure 5. Annual sales data for BEVs and PHEVs as a function of the biogas cap ......................17 Figure 6. Relative change in EV fleet as a function of the biogas cap ..........................................18 Figure 7. Relative change in PHEV and BEV fleet as a function credit allocation .......................19 Figure 8. Relative change in PHEV and BEV fleet as a function of equivalence value ...............21 Figure 9. Relative change in gasoline and electricity consumption ...............................................23 Figure 10. Biogas availability for eRIN generation .......................................................................25 LIST OF SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES Figure S1. Fleet and annual sales data for the 41 TWh, 75% scenario ..........................................35 Figure S2. Electric fleet and annual sales data for the 41 TWh, 75% scenario .............................35 Figure S3. Percent electric fleet and percent annual sales data for the 41 TWh, 75% scenario ........................................................................................................................36 Figure S4. Fleet data as a function of the biogas cap.....................................................................37 Figure S5. Annual sales data as a function of the biogas cap ........................................................38 Figure S6. EV percent fleet as a function of the biogas cap. .........................................................39 Figure S7. EV percent annual sales as a function of the biogas cap ..............................................40 v vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Key input assumptions to calculate credit value ..............................................................11 Table 2. Sample eRIN credit value calculation for a MY2017 BEV100 car .................................12 Table 3. Credit value by vehicle class offered at purchase by year for the 15 TWh/year, 100% credit allocation, 5.24 kWh/RIN scenario ...............................................................13 Table 4. Summary of scenario space evaluated .............................................................................14 Table 5. Fleet and annual sales totals across scenarios in 2025.....................................................22 Table 6. Fleet and annual sales totals across scenarios in 2030.....................................................22 Table 7. Maximum yearly eRIN generation ..................................................................................28 vii viii ACRONYMS BEV Battery electric vehicle CARB California Air Resources Board DOE Department of Energy eVMT Electric vehicle miles traveled EV Electric vehicle eRIN Electricity Renewable Identification Number EPA Environmental Protection Agency ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation LDV Light duty