Shareholder Activism in the Technology Sector: Activism in a COVID-19 World
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June 10, 2020 Shareholder Activism in the Technology Sector: Activism in a COVID-19 World Jen Fitchen ([email protected]) Partner, Co-Chair of Mergers and Acquisitions Practice Kai Liekefett ([email protected]) Partner, Co-Chair of Shareholder Activism Practice Derek Zaba ([email protected]) Partner, Co-Chair of Shareholder Activism Practice Private & Proprietary Shareholder Activism in the Technology Sector Contents • Introduction • The Activism Landscape • Current Topics of Interest and Implications for Shareholder Activism – Technology M&A Market – Capital Allocation – Guidance – Poison Pills • Recommendations Appendices Appendix: Sidley Activism Practice and Speaker Bios SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 2 The Activism Landscape Past Crises have Driven Change in Activism Landscape Pre-2001 2000s 2010s • Conversations driven • Actively managed funds still • Index funds are largest by active managers growing but index funds shareholders and begin Shareholder • Proxies voted from gaining share supporting activists with smaller ownership Bases the mailroom • Proxy voting teams established • Index fund influence at major institutional investors • Actively managed funds is limited shrinking and consolidating • Majority voting, special • Structural defenses • Classified boards dismantled at meeting rights, proxy access Legal intact largest companies; other Defenses/ defenses begin to crack commonplace • Poison pills • Normal course poison pills Governance commonplace • Backlash against poison pills largely non-existent • Barriers to entry for activist ? • “Corporate Raiders” • Advent of modern activism funds come down Activism • Largely driven by M&A • Rise of balance sheet activism Landscape thesis; hostile takeovers and financial engineering • Size of company is not a barrier to activist attack • Rise of operational activism • Increased import of ESG Financial Frauds/ Great COVID-19 Sarbanes-Oxley Recession/ Dodd-Frank SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 3 The Activism Landscape The Activism Wave Continued into the Start of 2020 Shareholder Activism was Near Record Levels in 2019 Campaigns Proxy Fights 400 375 350 364 349 336 342 300 245 271 250 261 238 200 150 100 105 106 105 92 93 97 88 81 50 77 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: FactSet SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 4 The Activism Landscape The COVID-19 Impact • COVID-19 “killed” the proxy season for proxy contests o Numerous quick settlements o Many activists decided not to nominate slates o Only a few proxy fights (lowest number of proxy contests in 20 years), mostly at smaller capitalization companies • Numerous other factors relevant to activism were also affected o The M&A market came to a screeching halt; focus shifted towards distressed M&A o Some industries were disproportionately impacted, increasing the possibility of opportunistic hostile M&A o ISS and Glass Lewis indicated more lenient policies on short-term “poison pills,” more than 50 companies have adopted o Capital allocation plans were shelved: “COVID-19 leads to logistical impediments and companies drew down credit lines, cut dividends shifts in timing and strategy, but, importantly, and withdrew guidance also creates opportunities for savvy investors.” Schulte Roth & Zabel LLP, o “Virtual only” annual meetings became the norm Leading activist law firm (March 2020) SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 5 The Activism Landscape Expectations for the Future • Expect new wave of activism later in 2020 o Large activists will weather the storm; some see the “opportunity in a generation”: Starboard, Elliott, Carl Icahn, Pershing Square, Third Point o Smaller activists faced a greater risk of capital redemptions and business closure o However, the quick rebound in the stock market may result in far fewer fund closures than initially expected • Activist strategies and tactics will evolve o In times of uncertainty, shorter and simpler theses, such as M&A and capital allocation, are more attractive to activists Activism After the Financial Crisis o However, M&A and capital allocation theses will need to conform to current environment Proxy Contests 150 • Hostile takeovers will continue to be a threat for 133 130 certain industries 110 87 93 o The 11 year bull-market made it hard to buy 90 companies 70 In some industries, even a 100% premium to 50 o filings of DEFC14A # current share price is often below 52 week high 2004-08 Avg. 2009 2010-19 Avg. SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 6 The Activism Landscape COVID-19 Impact on TSR by Industry TSR for Technology Companies has been Relatively Unaffected Year-to-Date Total Shareholder Return (TSR) by Industry Technology 20 Non-technology 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source: S&P Capital IQ. Universe is companies with primary exchange in the United States and market cap greater than $50 million. As of May 31, 2020. SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 7 Topic of Interest: The M&A Market for Technology Companies Technology M&A: Down but Not Out • M&A activity has been down across the board, anywhere from 25% to over 50% depending on the market size, geography and industry measured • In the last economic downturn, distressed deal volume increased as many companies have no alternative • However, in the technology sector:, – Capital is more available than in 2008 – According to the latest edition of the EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer, “the technology sector appears to be more confident in the deal outlook than other sectors, with 70% expecting to see the M&A market improve in the short-term compared with 56% of non-technology respondents.” – Fortune recently reported that the cohead of global M&A at Goldman Sachs “expects to see deals in the healthiest of sectors—think tech and health care—and the least viable sectors, like energy. In healthy sectors, M&A will strive for growth, while in the latter, it’s all about survival.” SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 8 Topic of Interest: The M&A Market for Technology Companies Key Conditions for M&A Activity in a Downturn • Consensus on Valuation. Value uncertainty and mismatched valuation expectations are the biggest impediments to M&A activity. Market volatility is the enemy of deal-making. • Need. On the sell-side, financially distressed companies with limited access to capital or growth opportunities may be compelled to transact. On the buy-side, if conditions threaten longer-term financial sustainability, acquisitions may become a critical part of the business strategy. • Synergies. Faced with downward pressure on margins and growth, particularly in markets with an existing leader with a strong market position, smaller companies may look to consolidate with competitors so as to more effectively compete again the leader. • Leveraging Strength. Well-positioned buyers may be able to withstand deal risk in uncertain times to opportunistically acquire companies to increase strength in existing areas, expand into new ones and shore up areas of weakness. • Available Capital. Whether through “dry powder,” financing, access to capital markets or stock-for- stock deals, buyers must have, and be willing, to invest in M&A. • Investor Support. Investor reaction to deal-making is never more important than in turbulent times. A bad deal, or failure to make a deal, may be the very thing that leads investors to support an activist campaign. SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 9 Topic of Interest: The M&A Market for Technology Companies Implications for Technology General Counsel • Know how to use all the tools in your deal kit and tailor the details to the deal, whether it’s: – an acquihire to add key engineers and IP from a small startup whose investors are backing out, – a “pre-packaged 363” bankruptcy sale that lets you acquire assets and leave (almost all) liabilities behind, – a rep and warranty policy that covers you when your purchase price is largely devoted to paying off creditors, or – a stock-for-stock deal to preserve cash and provide upside to offset valuation disagreements. • Focus on the drivers. Of course you want the “best” deal terms, but what that means for your deal may differ significantly depending on whether your deal is driven by need, to achieve synergies or to leverage strength. • Mind the message. What the company and the counterparty communicate about the deal to their investors, employees, customers and partners will be of paramount importance to fully realizing the expected benefits of the deal and avoiding investor backlash. • Be prepared for unwanted suitors and interlopers. Demands for “exploration of strategic alternatives” and agitation against announced transactions are more attractive to activists in this environment, particularly in the healthiest sectors. Be ready for the increased risk with a “break-the- glass” plan that includes contingency communications planning, identifying a crisis team, understanding your structural options and how to effectively deploy them. SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 10 Topic of Interest: Capital Allocation Impact on Activist Demands to Return Capital % of Companies in an Industry that… • Capital allocation demands Easy to analyze and understand; 100% ... Pay A Dividend o 90% does not require any operational 80% expertise; short duration 70% Technology Non-technology Were 60% o less likely to be the main 50% focus over the past decade, but 40% were frequently paired with other 30% activist objectives 20% 10% o Likely to be an increased 0% divergence of opinions within ... Cut Their Dividend investor bases 100% 80% 60% Four tech • Technology industries remain industries with no vulnerable 40% dividend cuts 20% o Fewer technology companies cut dividends; however most do not 0% pay a regular dividend 70% ... Hold Net Cash Above 10% of Market Capitalization o Many tech industries continue to 60% hold substantial net cash 50% 40% 30% 20% Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dividend information as of May 15, 2020; 10% Net cash information as of May 31, 2020. 0% SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP Private & Proprietary 11 Topic of Interest: Financial Guidance Activist Pressure to Increase Guidance • “Guidance Pressuring” % of Companies in an Industry that… o Pressuring companies to issue ..