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%STIMATING 3Treamfl %STIMATINGTHE-AGNITUDEAND&REQUENCYOF0EAK 3TREAMmOWSFOR5NGAGED3ITESON3TREAMSIN!LASKA AND#ONTERMINOUS"ASINSIN#ANADA 7ATER 2ESOURCES)NVESTIGATIONS2EPORT 0REPAREDINCOOPERATIONWITHTHE !,!3+!$%0!24-%.4/&42!.30/24!4)/.!.$05",)#&!#),)4)%3 #OVER0HOTOGRAPHOFDAMAGETO.INILCHIK6ILLAGE2OADBRIDGEOVER.INILCHIK2IVERLARGEPHOTOGRAPHANDTOPINSET AND3TERLING(IGHWAYBRIDGEOVER$EEP#REEKBOTTOMINSET !LASKA INCURREDDURINGAN/CTOBERmOODWITHARECURRENCEINTERVALGREATERTHANYEARS4HELEFTBRIDGEABUTMENTWASWASHEDOUTATBOTHBRIDGES0HOTOGRAPHTAKENBY$AVID-EYER 53'3 ON/CTOBER 53$%0!24-%.4/&4(%).4%2)/2 53'%/,/')#!,3526%9 Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Streamflows for Ungaged Sites on Streams in Alaska and Conterminous Basins in Canada By Janet H. Curran, David F. Meyer, and Gary D. Tasker U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Water-Resources Investigations Report 03-4188 Prepared in cooperation with the ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC FACILITIES Anchorage, Alaska 2003 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GALE A. NORTON, Secretary U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Charles G. Groat, Director Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. For additional information write to: Copies of this report can be obtained from: Chief, Water Resources Office U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey Information Services Alaska Science Center Building 810 4230 University Drive, Suite 201 Box 25286, Federal Center Anchorage, AK 99508-4664 Denver, CO 80225-0286 http://alaska.usgs.gov Suggested citation: Curran, J.H., Meyer, D.F., and Tasker, G.D., 2003, Estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 03-4188, 97 p. CONTENTS Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose and Scope ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Previous Studies.......................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................................... 3 Description of Study Area.................................................................................................................................... 3 Determination of Drainage-Basin Characteristics................................................................................................ 5 Determination of Streamflow Analysis Regions.................................................................................................. 5 Estimating Peak Streamflows at Gaged Sites ...................................................................................................... 7 Data Collection............................................................................................................................................ 8 Data Adjustment.......................................................................................................................................... 8 High Outliers and Historic Peak Discharges......................................................................................9 Low Outliers ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Discharges Recorded as Less Than a Known Value.......................................................................... 9 Data Not Correlated to Basin Characteristics ....................................................................................9 Generalized Skew Coefficients................................................................................................................... 10 Regional Equations for Estimating Peak Streamflows ........................................................................................ 11 Regression Analysis.................................................................................................................................... 11 Accuracy and Limitations of Estimating Equations.................................................................................... 12 Procedures for Estimating Peak Streamflow Magnitude and Frequency............................................................. 15 Example Applications ................................................................................................................................. 17 Computer Program...................................................................................................................................... 19 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 Appendixes........................................................................................................................................................... 83 Appendix A. Years of Record for Annual Peak Streamflows Used in This Report ............................................ 84 Appendix B. Accuracy Of Estimating Equations................................................................................................. 93 Site-Specific Standard Error of Prediction.................................................................................................. 93 Average Standard Error of Prediction......................................................................................................... 94 Equivalent Years of Record ........................................................................................................................ 94 Average Equivalent Years of Record.......................................................................................................... 94 Confidence Limits....................................................................................................................................... 94 Converting Errors from Log Units to Percentages...................................................................................... 95 Contents iii PLATE [Plate is in pocket] Plate 1. Map showing streamflow analysis regions and locations of streamflow-gaging and partial-record stations for which peak-streamflow statistics were computed, Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. FIGURES Figure 1. Map showing physical features and streamflow analysis regions of Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada.......................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2. Graph showing relation of discharge to drainage area for selected recurrence intervals for the Yukon River, Alaska and Canada ..........................................................................................17 iv Figures TABLES Table 1. Description and methods of estimation of basin characteristics used in regression analysis ............ 6 Table 2. Generalized skew and summary statistics for Regions 1-7, Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada ................................................................................................................................ 11 Table 3. Regression equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Regions 1-7, Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada ................................................................................................................................ 13 Table 4. Station information and peak-streamflow statistics for streamflow-gaging and partial-record stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada............................................... 22 Tables v CONVERSION FACTORS AND DATUMS CONVERSION FACTORS Multiply By To obtain foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m) inch (in.) 25.4 millimeter (mm) mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km) square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2) foot per mile (ft/mi) 0.1894 meter per kilometer (m/km) cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second (m3/s) Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) may be converted to degrees Celsius (ºC) as follows: ºC=(ºF-32)/1.8. DATUMS Vertical coordinate information was referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29). Horizontal coordinate information was referenced to the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD 27). vi Conversion Factors and Datums Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Streamflows for Ungaged Sites on Streams in Alaska and Conterminous Basins in Canada By Janet H. Curran, David F. Meyer, and Gary D. Tasker ABSTRACT characteristics. Basin characteristics should be obtained using methods similar to those used in Estimates of the magnitude and frequency this report to preserve the statistical integrity of the of peak streamflow are needed across Alaska for equations. floodplain management, cost-effective design
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