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Analyzing the Impact of the NCAA Selection Committee's New Journal of Sports Analytics 5 (2019) 325–333 325 DOI 10.3233/JSA-190337 IOS Press Analyzing the impact of the NCAA Selection committee’s new quadrant system Bruce A. Reiniga,∗ and Ira Horowitzb aManagement Information Systems, Fowler College of Business, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA bInformation Systems and Operations Management, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL USA Abstract. In 2018 the NCAA introduced a new metric, namely a four-Quadrant system intended to adjust for home-court advantage when assessing quality wins in the selection and seeding process for the Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. We apply a linear programming procedure for ranking potential candidates for the tournament, based upon the traditional criteria, show how the rankings change with the inclusion of the Quadrant metric, and conclude that the metric has a substantial impact on the choices. We go on to show that the new ranking and choices are much more in sync with the NCAA Selection Committee’s actual ranking and choices than had been the case absent the metric, leading to the inference that the metric played an important role in the Committee’s decision making. 1. Introduction ting is done so as to allow the four 1 seeds to play their first-round games in the neutral-court venues that are The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tour- closest to their home courts. Insofar as is feasible, nament is a knockout (single-loss-elimination), similar courtesies are next extended to the 2 seeds, six-round, three-week annual event that has his- and so on down the line. torically been held in March, culminating in a In the first-round pairings, the seed numbers sum championship game played on the first Monday to 17. Thus the presumed largest mismatches pair the evening in April. Over the years, the 64-team format four top seeds and the four bottom seeds, and the that has been in place since 1985 has undergone a presumed nail-biters pair the four 8 s and the four series of changes of varying import. The most recent 9 s. The 2018 tournament marked the first time in its and impactful change became effective with the 2011 35-year history under the current format that a 16 tournament, when 68 of the then 339 Division I teams – the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) – were invited to participate. But eight of the 68 were defeateda1–theUniversity of Virginia. If “chalk” required to play in four so-called play-in games that holds, in the sense that the higher seeds always pre- would reduce the final set of competitors to the tradi- vail, the sum of the seed numbers in the second-round tional 64-team format. pairings will equal 9, and so forth in subsequent The 64 finalists are slotted into four brackets: nomi- rounds, with the four top seeds paired in the penulti- nally, East, West,Midwest, and South. In each bracket mate round and the two surviving 1’s then competing the teams are seeded 1 through 16, with the “1” judged for the championship. Chalk, however, is honored to be the strongest and the “16” the weakest. The slot- largely in the breach at tournament time, thanks to both the inherent uncertainty in any sporting event ∗Corresponding author: Dr. Bruce A. Reinig, Fowler College and the inherent fallibility of the ten-person Selection of Business, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, Committee charged with selecting and seeding the 68 San Diego, CA 92182-8234, USA. Tel.: +1 619 594 3032; E-mail: [email protected]. invitees. Hence the colloquial reference to the tourna- 2215-020X/19/$35.00 © 2019 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved This article is published online with Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0). 326 B.A. Reinig and I. Horowitz / Analyzing the impact of the new quadrant system ment as March Madness aka The Big Dance. Indeed, were not intended to replace the Committee’s judg- it is not at all uncommon for the betting market to ments, but rather to provide them a raison d’etre for favor a lower seed over a higher seed, as the mar- some of their choices and an impetus for articulating ket agents do not necessarily share the Committee’s the reasons for going in another direction in others. judgments. RH carry out their analysis and provide ex post And those agents are not alone. The list of invi- recommendations for the 2012 through 2016 tour- tees and where they are seeded, along with the list of naments, which they show align quite well with the scorned, are rarely without controversy, as there the respective Selection Committees’ selections and are no definitive rules guiding the Committee’s deci- seeding. More critically, they demonstrate the fea- sions, beyond the strict requirement that invitations sibility of their approach by applying it ex ante to to the dance must be issued to the champions of each the formal Selection Sunday announcement of the of the 32 basketball-playing conferences. The addi- Committee’s decisions. When doing so, they identi- tional 36 invitations – the at-large selections - are fied only a single case in which their approach yielded issued at the Committee’s discretion, which prior to a markedly different result from that of the Commit- the 2018 tournament were guided only by some vague tee - that in which it ranked Illinois State as the 32nd NCAA mandates to the effect that attention should at-large selection, which as such would have merited be paid to such factors as strength of schedule (SOS), an invitation, as opposed to the Committee’s choice of a ratings percentage index (RPI) purporting to mea- Marquette, which the MP approach had ranked 39th. sure a team’s performance, given the performance of Then, in early February 2018, in time for imple- its opponents and that of their opponents, a team’s mentation by the Selection Committee in making win percentage, and the “quality” of its wins and its selections for the 2018 tournament, the NCAA losses. To help the Selection Committee differenti- announced a major alteration to the system, one ate between high-quality and low-quality wins and intended to adjust for home-court advantage: namely, losses, the NCAA provided Team Sheets that sepa- the heretofore informally and selectively applied rate team schedules into four quadrants based on the principle that all else being equal, a road win is quality of their opponent. In 2017 for example, the superior to a win at a neutral site, which is in turn Team Sheets separated each team schedule based on superior to a home win. That is, some wins are games played against teams with RPIs ranked in the better than others and some losses are worse than Top 50, RPIs ranked 51 to 100, RPIs ranked 101 to others, and a systematic recognition of such, which 200, and teams with RPI ranks below 201. In addi- historically entered into the Committee’s delibera- tion to identifying factors that should be attended to, tions in an unsystematic and ad hoc basis, was now the NCAA specifically mandates that factors such as formalized through the metric of “Quadrant” wins conference affiliation or the reputation of the coach and losses wherein four Quadrants are defined in the should be excluded from consideration. The Commit- Team Sheets that summarize the data provided to the tee members are also encouraged to watch as many Committee members. There, for example, Quadrant games as possible, especially those of teams to which 1 (Q1) win-loss results are those compiled at home they have been assigned, and to supplement those data against teams ranked 1 to 30 in accordance with RPI, with their eyeball tests. plus those compiled on neutral courts against teams Absent definitive guidance as to how large a role ranked 1 to 50 by RPI, plus those compiled on the road each of the non-barred factors should play in the against teams ranked 1 to 75 by RPI. At the other Committee’s deliberations and collective judgments, extreme, Q4 win-loss results are those compiled at Reinig and Horowitz (2018), henceforth RH, prof- home against teams ranked 161 or higher by RPI, plus fered a mathematical programming (MP) approach those compiled on neutral courts against teams ranked to assigning weights to the pertinent factors which 201 or higher, plus those complied on the oppo- would guide both the selection of the at-large teams nent’s court against teams ranked 241 or higher by and the ranking and consequent seeding of all 68 invi- RPI. Individual game outcomes are listed within the tees. The 2011 rule that required the 65th through opponent’s Quadrant by RPI, and color-coordinated the 68th-ranked teams to meet in one pair of play-in to identify non-conference games and game site, and games whose winners would fill two 16 seeds, and to highlight losses. Thus, for example, the 2018 Team the four lowest-ranked at-large teams to meet in the Sheet for Virginia shows its lowest RPI-ranked oppo- second pair of play-in games, would still apply. As nent in Quadrant 1 to have been 61st-ranked Virginia emphasized by RH, the resulting recommendations Tech, a road opponent that it defeated in Blacksburg, B.A. Reinig and I. Horowitz / Analyzing the impact of the new quadrant system 327 Virginia on January 3, 2018. Virginia’s February 10, seem to be their non-systematic interpretations of the 2018 home victory over that same 61st-ranked Vir- data resulted in numerous inconsistencies in the final ginia Tech in Charlottesville, Virginia, however, is team rankings, considered in a systematic sequence listed in Quadrant 2.
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