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CFA Institute Research Challenge CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in Shanghai Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai Jiao Tong University Student Research Specialty Retail Industry, Consumer Discretionary Sector Shenzhen Stock Exchange Suning Commerce Group Date: 13 November, 2015 USD/CNY: 6.37 Recommendation: BUY . Ticker: 002024.SZ Current Price: CNY 15.54 Target Price: CNY 20.27 (UP 30.44%) This report is published for educational Highlights purposes only by students competing in The CFA Institute Research Challenge. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation on Suning Commerce Group (Suning) based on a one-year target price of CNY 20.27 using Discounted Cash Flow and Relative Stock Price Movement Multiples Valuation. This target price offers a 30.44% upside from its closing price of CNY 15.54 on November 13th, 2015. Our recommendation is primarily driven by: 002024.SZ 400 CSI 300 Retailing • Promising O2O Layout - The future of retail depends on both online and ofline SZSE COMPOSITE 300 business, providing customers with not only convenient access to various ranges of products, but also comprehensive last-mile shopping experience. As one of the largest 200 specialty retailers in China, Suning proactively devotes to the development of Online- 100 to-OfRline business, transforming into a competitive retail conglomerate. 0 • Outstanding Advantages - Unlike pure play e-retailers such as JD (JD.OQ), Suning is Rirmly supported by several strengths, including its nationwide retail chain, veteran 4-Mar-14 1-Aug-14 6-Jan-15 13-Nov-1219-Apr-1324-Sep-13 10-Jun-1513-Nov-15 supply chain management, and logistics bases with leading storage capacity. Looking Source: Market Data beyond ofRline industry standards, Suning has Rirst-mover advantage in online expansion, logistics network and Rinancial services, widening the gap between itself and other traditional retailers. Market Proile 52-Week High/Low CNY 23.54/7.64 • Solid Liquidity Position and Operating EfFiciency - Suning’s outstanding liquidity and improving cash sufRiciency indicate strong ability in cash Rlow management, which Average Daily Volume 241.86M is crucial to retail companies. Besides, the shortening operating cycle and improving Shares Outstanding 7,383,043,150 inventory turnover rate demonstrate Suning’s high operating efRiciency. Market Cap. CNY 114.732B • Growth Drivers - Prospective growth for Suning is powered by solid revenue growth Beta 1.005 and increasing market share generated by (1) strong consumption growth, (2) O2O layout, (3) strategic corporation with Big Macs including Alibaba and Wanda to P/S (TTM) 0.9 effectively improve e-commerce position and to increase Rlagship stores coverage. P/E (TTM) 58.5 EV/Revenue (TTM) 1.0 Recent News Source: Team Computation • Robust Performance on Singles’ Day (Nov.11) - 11/13/2015: On this annual online shopping festival, Suning ranks 1st in online sales growth, outperforming Alibaba and Earnings Per Share (CNY) JD. Sales surge 358% YoY, in which 67% orders are from mobile portals, and ofRline sales solely rise by 153%. Cellphone sales grow at 700%, refrigerator at over 1000% 0.8 and baby products at 620%. 0.6 • Cooperation Deal with Dalian Wanda Commercial (3699.HK) - 09/06/2015: Wanda Group and Suning are deepening cooperation in e-commerce to get greater traction by 0.4 combining their ofRline and online resources. The deal will allow Suning to open 40 0.2 stores at Wanda Plazas across China by year's end. 0 • Strategic Collaboration with Alibaba (BABA.N) - 08/11/2015: Suning will invest up 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 to US$2.28 billion for 27.8 million newly issued shares of Alibaba at $81.51/share, Source: Company Data while Alibaba will invest CNY 28.3 billion for 19.99% of the enlarged equity capital of Suning at CNY15.23/share. After the closing of the deal, Alibaba will be the second- largest shareholder, and Suning will hold approximately 1.1% stake in Alibaba. Valuation DCF Multiples Key Statistics 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Total Revenue (M CNY) 98,357 105,292 108,925 129,565 146,573 165,231 186,845 212,396 242,165 Estimated Price 20.17 20.36 Revenue Growth Rate 4.8% 7.1% 3.5% 18.9% 13.1% 12.7% 13.1% 13.7% 14.0% Net Proit (M CNY) 2,505 104 824 1024 668 412 778 1270 1808 Weights 50% 50% Inventory Turnover 4.69 5.03 5.38 7.18 9.00 10.57 12.05 12.93 12.99 Target Price 20.27 Debt to Total Assets 61.8% 65.1% 64.1% 47.9% 50.7% 53.7% 56.8% 59.8% 62.7% Interest Coverage 32.29 0.59 -3.08 -1.97 -0.10 2.62 4.06 5.79 7.61 Source: Team Computation EPS (CNY) 0.37 0.05 0.12 0.14 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.19 ROE 8.6% 0.4% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% Online Sales Percentage 15.5% 24.8% 23.7% 22.4% 24.7% 27.4% 30.3% 33.4% 36.7% Source: Company Data and Team Estimation h1 Figure 1: Total Revenue and Gross Business Description Margin (in billions CNY, annual %) 18.9% 120 17.2% 17.4% 17.8% 17.8% Suning Commerce Group, established in 1990 and headquartered in Nanjing, is one of 15.2% 15.3% the largest retailers in China. Formerly known as Suning Appliance Company Limited, the 90 company operates a home appliance retail chain of physical stores. In 2004, Suning went public at Shenzhen Stock Exchange. After opening its online shopping platform 60 “Suning.com” in 2009 along with a series of M&A transactions, Suning proposed an 30 innovative business plan called “Cloud Business” in 2013, marking its thorough transition from ofRline-only to Online-to-OfRline model. Suning currently operates 1,681 0 physical stores across China, in Hong Kong and Japan, and provides an open platform for nearly 23,000 merchants. Suning offers products of 15 million stock keeping units (SKU), 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 covering not only home appliance, computers, and communication products, but also Source: Company Data online supermarkets, cosmetics, clothing, baby, Rinance, virtual products, etc. With the rapid online expansion, 26.26% of total revenue comes from online self-operating Figure 2: 2014 Revenue by Product products and 7.23% comes from online open platform in 2015 Q1-Q3. Other Transition to O2O IT 1.1% As a leader in China’s specialty retail industry, Suning used to proRit by selling products 16.4% on consignment and went through rapid growth. From 2006 to 2015, Suning successfully Telecom Appliance expanded its chain stores in China from 351 to 1,681 stores (Figure 5) and became one 16.7% 53.9% of the most inRluential domestic brands. Yet later, Suning met competitive pressure from AC the rise of e-commerce, following the ending of trade-in policies. The inactive growth of 11.9% store base and operating revenue (Figure 6), and huge losses in total proit indicated that it was urgent for Suning to take action and to adapt to the trend of “Internet+”. Different from its former largest competitor Gome (0493.HK), Suning proactively embraced e- Source: Company Data commerce, aiming to better integrate its resources and to regain market share. Figure 3: Business Process Operational Strategies Suning operates under the structure of procurement, logistics, online and ofRline Procurement operations, as well as supportive IT infrastructure, all of which are core competencies for retailing enterprises. Logistics IT Procurement - Running 8 purchasing centers specializing in procurement, Suning has System Platform solid collaboration with headstream manufacturers such as Samsung, Haier, Midea, Apple and Siemens, which guarantee the authenticity of goods and low costs. In 2014, 31% of the procurement amount comes from the Rive suppliers mentioned above. As an Online OfRline exclusive distributor, Suning also provides a variety of customized products, which not only attach added value to products but also increase proRit margin. Besides, it also Source: Team Analysis provides supply chain Rinance services including loans to suppliers, factoring, and deferral of payments, to improve supply chain management. Figure 4: 2013 Stores by Region Logistics - Suning has 57 regional distribution centers, 352 city trans-shipment centers, over 1,700 last-mile delivery stations and 4,055 delivery points, covering almost all of Others the 2,800 counties and districts, or nearly 5 million m2 area in both urban and rural (HK & JP) areas. With such solid infrastructure, Suning shortens the delivery time to 12 hours in most areas, and even 2 hours in 8 major cities. Suning also promotes the open strategy > 300 by sharing its logistics network with suppliers and third-party merchants. 200 - 299 100 - 199 < 100 Operations of Of<line Chain and Online Platform - In 2015 Q3, Suning’s ofRline layout Auto DC consists of 1625 chain stores in China, covering 296 cities nationwide, as well as 26 stores in Hong Kong and 30 Laox stores in Japan. In 2014 and 2015, Suning sells and Source: Company Data leases back 25 of its 38 self-owned stores through Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). The securitization of real estate properties brings Suning short-term proRitability and Figure 5: Number of Stores in China liquidity. With regards to online platforms, Suning intensively carries out promotions Community Central Flagship and expands SKU to offer wider selections for customers. In 2015 Q3, the number of 1,600 339 333 336 330 registered members has reached 214 million, including 45 million active users. 1,200 239 161 437 433 438 IT Infrastructure - By analyzing big data to accelerate R&D of various applications, 112 428 800 364 224 291 Suning is constantly enhancing its comprehensive IT platform to support precision 400 marketing aimed at both customers and suppliers.
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