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151016 CB China Power of Retailing 2015 CN.Docx China Power of Retailing 2015 China Power of Retailing 2015 1 Foreword 2015 has witnessed the recovery of a global economy and the gradual stabilization of a real economy in China. While the Eurozone economy continues to improve, the differentiation among its economies remains noticeable. “Abeconomics” throws Japan into deep recession. The United States of America, as the only exception, enters the trajectory of a strong recovery and the US dollar has appreciated sharply against other major world currencies. Its well-anticipated rise in interest rate in the fourth quarter forebodes an accelerated devaluation of currencies in most emerging economies. As a result, the pressure on devaluating RMB is mounting. With a slowed growth rate, the Chinese economy has arrived at the stage of new normal. The YoY growth for the first half of the year lingers around 7%, hindered by the deceleration of the three engines that used to propel GDP growth – a sluggish export, a slow growth in investment and a domestic consumption that continues to fall behind expectation. Although the growth rate of the total retail of consumer goods has dropped, it has far outpaced the domestic industrial growth. With the consumer confidence seeing constant improvement that will further free up consumption potential, consumption is expected to continue pulling the economy in the future. A continued fall in oil prices has offset the inflationary pressure, curbing the inflation at a lower level to make room for executing a lax monetary policy. To further boost investment and consumption, and reduce enterprise financing costs, the government has gradually redirected its macro economy from “stabilize growth and adjust structure” to “ensure growth,” making the lowering of interest rate and reserve ratio possible in the second half of the year. A rising cost and narrowed profit still threaten the retail industry. Constantly climbing house rents and labor expenses have pushed up enterprise operational costs and further eaten in their profits. Meanwhile, physical retailers face the challenges from e-commerce, forcing the traditional retail industry to go through the pain of transformation, while the competition among retailers is becoming more brutal. On the other hand, technological innovations, change in consumer behaviors and individualized needs in consumption have combined to drive enterprises to beef up efforts in online business, switch to O2O all-channel operation and speed up mobile e-commerce and cross-border e-commerce deployment. Our major findings about the situation in the present and trend in the future in China’s retail industry include: · A slowing economic growth, consumption upgrade, emerging industries and the emergence of online and mobile shopping have grabbed a significant share of offline retailers and resulted in the slowdown in the growth rate of the latter. At the same time, constantly rising house rents and labor expenses have put tremendous pressure on the costs of running businesses. In 2014, growth in sales slipped to 5.1% among top 100 chain retailers and net profit dropped to 2.08%, a 0.03 percentage points below last year’s figure. China Power of Retailing 2015 2 · The slump environment has further differentiated the operating results across retail enterprises. It has come to our attention that enterprises with a national operation have outperformed their regional counterparts thanks to the economy of scale and their mature operational and managerial mechanism. In terms of the type of operation, shopping malls and convenience stores have maintained in a growth trajectory due to their stronger capability of defending themselves from e-commerce and the upgrade and transformation they have done to adapt to changing consumer needs. Although businesses have made the attempt to fend against risks by diversifying their types of operation, the operational data collected this time prove otherwise: Businesses with only one type of operation have delivered better results than those with multi-types of operation, suggesting that businesses should take a cautious approach toward transformation. · Integration in the retail industry has picked up in speed where businesses seek to break through by mergers and acquisitions. Foreign companies begin to feel increasingly fierce competition from local rivals. More M&A deals are concluded among Chinese enterprises that are more inclined in M&A across different types of operation. · The rapid development in internet technology and logistics has fueled the continuous growth in the size and share of e-commerce market. · Physical retail industry is undergoing an accelerated transformation and restructuring. More stores will be closed to further optimize commercial structure and more emerging technologies will be adopted to differentiate operations. · The entire retail industry is switching to O2O all-channel operations where the last- kilometer distribution remains a critical factor in consumer experience. · Cross-border e-commerce emerges to be a new growth engine, steadily bringing up shares in import. B2C and B2B will grow hand in hand. While internet giants have intensified their efforts in making cross-border deployment, physical retailers are wasting no time in testing the water of cross-border e-commerce. · Mobile shopping has grown to account for nearly half of the market of online shopping and is showing the tendency of dominance. The increasing infiltration of mobile payment technology has further boosted the transactions on the mobile platforms. China Power of Retailing 2015 is published jointly by Deloitte China and China Chain Store and Franchise Association (CCFA). Produced on the basis of analyses of sample data collected from 206 enterprises that responded to the questionnaire we sent out to a total of 208 enterprises, and in-depth interviews we conducted with top retailers, the report offers insights into the trend of the retail industry in China and provides preliminary advice on the transformation of retail businesses. China Power of Retailing 2015 3 Contents I Macro environment .................................................................................................................................. 5 II Retail industry – overview and trend .......................................................................................................14 III Operating conditions of hypermarkets and supermarkets .......................................................................37 IV Operating conditions of convenience stores ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. V Operating conditions of department stores and shopping malls ................. Error! Bookmark not defined. VI Operating conditions of specialty stores ................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix: 2014 Top 100 Chain Store Enterprises in China .......................................................................75 China Power of Retailing 2015 4 I Macro environment 1.1 International macro environment Global trend Declining oil prices Global oil price has declined more than 50% from its level in the first half of 2014, mainly triggered by the increase in the value of the US dollar, expected increase of oil supply in the global market and a decrease of intensity of oil consumption by global economy. The decline in oil prices has a widespread impact on the global economy. It has alleviated the inflationary pressure off all the countries, especially the developed markets such as US, Europe and Japan, and has lifted the purchasing power of oil consumption states such as Japan, India, US and Europe. In the meantime, the decline of oil prices is more likely to add fuel to the economic growth than does an increasing oil price. For oil exporting countries like Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria, however, a slump oil market has clearly deteriorated their international balance of payment and frustrated their economic growth. Oil prices may continue to fall in the short term. Considerable new oil production capacity is in the pipeline in the US and is expected to go into operation in 2015, causing crude oil inventory to pile up continuously. In the long term, a depressing oil price may suppress the investment on fracking. As a matter of fact, we have noticed a cut in the number of drilling licenses issued and the amount of capital expenditure in oil companies. As a result, the reduction in oil production by the US may come at the time when global demands start to pick up, which, if materialized, will certainly cause oil prices to rebound. Such a speculation may become reality in as short as a couple of years. A rising oil price will translate into inflation and add pressure on debt repayment in oil consumption nations, leaving them with no choice but to adopt a tightening monetary policy. This is at least true in the US. An oil price hike will, on the other hand, benefit oil exporting countries such as Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Mexico, in particular. A stronger US dollar A remarkable trend for the period from 2014 to early 2015 is the sharp rise in the value of US dollars against most of other major currencies. Many factors have contributed to the trend: a weak oil price, a stronger economic growth and expected rise of interest rate in the US as well as the more active monetary policies introduced by Europe, China and Japan while experiencing sluggish growth. The impacts of a stronger US dollar are multifold. Domestically, a stronger US dollar will
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