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The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth of Kenya

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The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth of Kenya Munich Personal RePEc Archive International tourism receipts and economic growth in Kenya 1980 -2013 Akama, Erick University of Nairobi 12 November 2016 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78110/ MPRA Paper No. 78110, posted 12 Apr 2017 11:51 UTC INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RECIEPTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA 1980 -2013 AKAMA ERICK MAIKO X50/67704/2013 A Research Project Submitted to the School of Economics in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Award of Degree of Master of Arts in Economics of the University of Nairobi. 2016 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this is my original work and that to the best of my knowledge has never been presented for the award of any degree in any other university or institution. CANDIDATE: AKAMA ERICK MAIKO ADMISION NUMBER: X50/67704/2013 SIGNATURE……………………………………………DATE…………………………… APPROVAL This MA Research project has been forwarded for examination with my approval as University Supervisor: DR. THOMAS ONGORO SIGNATURE……………………………DATE……………………………………….. ii DEDICATION All my dedication goes to my mum (Grace Nyabisi), my wife(Mercy) brothers and sister for their firm support in encouraging me and constantly reminding me for the value of time for the duration I was undertaking my studies. Their inspirations and positive advices ensured my accomplishing of this work. I appreciate them dearly. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It’s my greatest pleasure and humility to thank the following persons for their valuable inputs in my work. First and foremost, Dr. Thomas Ongoro of UON, thank you very much for your exemplarily guidance, monitoring and positive critics that led to a standard research paper. Your value of the duration of a good research paper taught me patience and determination. Secondly my gratitude goes to the University of Nairobi, School of Economics defense panelist for their professionalism and convivial support that led to the successful completion of my research. My thanks goes also to all my brothers (Evans, Obadiah and Obae), my only sister (Lilian) and my Mum Grace as well as Dad-David for their moral support and understanding during this period. They were there for me when I needed them most. Lastly, I thank in a special way Almighty God for the good health and wisdom during the duration I was undertaking the research. Thank you. iv LIST OF FIGURES Graph 1: Role of Tourism industry to the global economy in US dollar billions Graph 2: The share of the Travel and Tourism sector to the world employment in thousands Graph 3: World GDP growth rate and international receipts growth rate Graph 4: Kenyan percentage share of GDP by main sector for some selected years v LIST OF TABLES Table1. Data type, source &Typology of all the variables Table 2: Descriptive statistics Table 3: Shapiro-Wilk normality test Table 4: VIF and Tolerance results Table 5: ADF test results Table 6: ADF test results for differenced variables Table 7: Engle-Granger Test for Cointegration Table 8: Engle-Granger Test for Cointegration Table 9: Long run Regression Results in Level Table 10: Regression Results in First Difference vi LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS UNWTO - United Nations World Tourism Organization GDP - Gross Domestic Product ADF - Augmented Dickey-Fuller KNBS - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics OLS - Ordinary Least Squares WTO - World Trade Organization WTTC - World Travel and Tourism Council OECD - Organization for economic cooperation and development VECM - Vector Error Correcting Model FDI - Foreign Direct Investment TLGH - Tourism-led growth hypothesis vii TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION .................................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION ....................................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ..................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................. vi LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................. vii TABLE OF CONTENT ....................................................................................................................... viii ABSTARCT ............................................................................................................................................ x CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Economic role of Tourism sector ........................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Impact of travel and tourism on world employment .............................................................. 3 1.1.3 International tourism arrivals. ................................................................................................ 4 1.1.4 Kenyan’s sector performance ................................................................................................. 5 1.1.5 History of the tourism sector since 1960................................................................................ 6 1.2 Statement of Research Problem .................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Study questions ............................................................................................................................. 9 1.4. Study Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 The general objective ............................................................................................................. 9 1.4.2 The specific objectives. .......................................................................................................... 9 1.5 Significance of the study ............................................................................................................. 10 1.6 Organization of the proposal ....................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................... 12 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 12 2.2 Theoretical literature review: ...................................................................................................... 12 Keynesian model of an open economy ............................................................................................. 12 2.2.2 Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) .......................................................................... 14 2.3 Empirical literature review.......................................................................................................... 14 2.4 Overview of the literature ........................................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 19 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 19 3.2 Conceptual framework ................................................................................................................ 19 3.3 Theoretical frameworks .............................................................................................................. 20 viii 3.4 Empirical model .......................................................................................................................... 21 3.5 Data type, source and Typology of variables .............................................................................. 22 3.6. Estimation technique .................................................................................................................. 23 3.7. Statistical tests ............................................................................................................................ 24 3.7.1. Unit root and stationarity test .............................................................................................. 24 3.7.2. Cointegration test ................................................................................................................ 24 3.7.4 Granger Causality .............................................................................................................. 25 3.7.5 Diagnostics Tests for Normality and Serial Correlation ...................................................... 25 CHAPTER FOUR: ANALYSIS OF DATA AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS .............................. 26 4.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 26 4.1 Descriptive statistics ..................................................................................................................
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