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Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah's Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations

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Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah's Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU All Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 5-2015 Great Salt Lake Past and Present: Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah's Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations James S. White Utah State University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd Part of the Other Environmental Sciences Commons Recommended Citation White, James S., "Great Salt Lake Past and Present: Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah's Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations" (2015). All Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 4588. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/4588 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at DigitalCommons@USU. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@USU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Great Salt Lake Past and Present: Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah's Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations by James S. White A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of MASTERS OF SCIENCE in Watershed Science Approved: _________________________ ________________________ Sarah Null Wayne Wurtsbaugh Major Professor Committee Member _________________________ _________________________ David Tarboton Mark McLellan Committee Member Vice President for Research and Dean of the School of Graduate Studies UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY Logan, Utah 2015 ii Copyright © James S. White 2015 All Rights Reserved iii ABSTRACT Great Salt Lake Past and Present: Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah’s Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations by James S. White, Master of Science Utah State University, 2015 Major Professor: Sarah Null Department: Watershed Science In 1959, Union Pacific Railroad constructed a rock-filled causeway bisecting Utah’s Great Salt Lake, separating the lake into a north and south arm. Flow between the two arms was limited to two 4.6 meter wide culverts installed during original construction, an 88 meter breach opening installed in 1984, and the semi porous boulder and gravel causeway material. The south arm receives nearly all streamflows entering Great Salt Lake and a salinity gradient between the two arms developed over time. North arm salinity is often at or near saturation, averaging 317 g\L since 1966, while the south is considerably less saline, averaging 142 g\L since 1966. Ecological and industrial uses of the lake depend on salinity levels staying within physiologic and economic thresholds. Union Pacific Railroad proposed to replace aging culverts with a bridge, and provided four alternative bridge designs. Northern Utah’s variable climate complicates management of the causeway, where lake elevation and salinity are affected by wet and iv dry periods. Understanding the historical duration, magnitude, and frequency of wet and dry periods can inform future management decisions. I model the effect of each proposed bridge design on Great Salt Lake salinity and elevation in both arms by updating and applying US Geological Survey’s Great Salt Lake Fortran Model. I used measured historical streamflow and a 400-year tree-ring paleo-streamflow reconstruction to understand lake elevation and salinity sensitivity to longer-term climate variability. The model accurately simulates historical lake elevation and salinity and is sensitive to proposed bridge designs. Bridge alternatives vary salinity by 20 g\L within each arm using historical 1966-2012 conditions. When the model was run with the 400-year paleo- reconstructed hydrology, I find that the 20th century had the lowest average lake level of any century since 1600, and that 20th century floods were smaller than in previous centuries, both in terms of length and magnitude. With the 400-year paleo-streamflow model, differences of south arm salinity between bridge alternatives increase considerably through time, where alternative D results in salinity up to 100 g/l less than alternative A and that the current condition of the causeway would result in a fundamental change in Great Salt Lake characteristics, with the south arm approaching freshwater conditions at times. This research demonstrates that mass balance models are useful to predict management effects on terminal lake ecosystems, and provides a unique approach to reconstruct terminal lake paleo-salinity. (89 pages) v PUBLIC ABSTRACT Great Salt Lake Past and Present: Elevation and Salinity Changes to Utah’s Great Salt Lake from Railroad Causeway Alterations Utah’s Great Salt Lake contributes and estimated $1.3 billion to the local and regional economy and is a vital food-source for migratory and resident birds. In 1959, the lake was fundamentally changed with construction of an earth-filled, semi-permeable railroad causeway which splits the lake into two “arms”. The only flow interaction between these two arms is through the semi-permeable causeway material, and three openings in the causeway. In 2013, two of these causeway openings were closed, and a bridge was proposed to improve flow between arms. Four bridge designs were proposed. I modeled Great Salt Lake water and salt distribution with each bridge design using historical 1966-2012 measured streamflow and climate data. I then used tree-ring reconstructed hydrologic data to estimate lake elevation and salinity since 1604 to understand the effects of long-term climate variability and the long-term influence the causeway has on the water and salt balance on the lake. I find that Great Salt Lake is sensitive to changes in bridge designs, particularly in the south arm, where the largest bridge design increases mean salinity by almost 20% from the smallest bridge design over the 400-year modeled period. Additionally, if the causeway is left in its current state with few openings for interflow, salinity in the south arm may eventually approach freshwater levels, while the north would almost always be saturated. I also find that the 20th century had a lower average lake level than the three preceding centuries, and also vi had smaller flooding events compared to the 17th and 18th centuries. These results will aid Great Salt Lake management by quantifying elevation and salinity effects of proposed causeway changes and allow managers and stakeholders to better prepare for climate- driven Great Salt Lake elevation and salinity changes not witnessed in the historical record. vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Sarah Null, and my two committee members, Dr. David Tarboton and Dr. Wayne Wurtsbaugh, for their guidance and insights throughout my graduate school experience. Each provided an important and unique perspective to my research, in addition to being supportive, approachable, and kind. I would like to thank my wife Monica who not only was amazingly supportive throughout, but also consistently helpful with statistical advice and a providing a fresh perspective on my work. Finally, I would like to thank Utah Department of Natural Resources’ Fire Forrest and State Lands Division for funding this research. viii CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iii PUBLIC ABSTRACT .........................................................................................................v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ vii LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................................x LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................1 II. MODELING CHANGES TO SALINITY IN GREAT SALT LAKE FROM RAILROAD CUASEWAY ALTERATIONS ............................................3 2.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................3 2.1.1 BACKGOUND .......................................................................................6 2.1.2 ANTRHOPOGENIC IMPACTS .............................................................8 2.1.3 GSL ECOLOGY ...................................................................................10 2.2 METHODS ......................................................................................................11 2.2.1 INPUT DATA SOURCES ....................................................................13 2.2.2 MODEL RUNS .....................................................................................14 2.3 RESULTS ........................................................................................................17 2.3.1 MODEL VALIDATION .......................................................................17 2.3.2 BRIDGE ALTERNATIVES .................................................................19 2.3.3 CURRENT CONDTIIONS ...................................................................22 2.3.4 WHOLE LAKE .....................................................................................25 2.3.5 LIMITATIONS .....................................................................................25 2.4 DISCUSSION AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS .............................29 ix III. CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS FOR UTAH’S GREAT SALT LAKE WITH PROPOSED CAUSEWAY
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