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A Dendroclimatic Investigation of Southwestern

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A Dendroclimatic Investigation of Southwestern A DENDROCLIMATIC INVESTIGATION OF SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Master of Science in Geography University of Regina By Samantha Alicia Kerr Regina, Saskatchewan November 2013 Copyright 2013; S.A. Kerr UNIVERSITY OF REGINA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE Samantha Alicia Kerr, candidate for the degree of Master of Science in Geography, has presented a thesis titled, A Dendroclimatic Investigation of Southwestern Saskatchewan, in an oral examination held on October 21, 2013. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material. External Examiner: Dr. Johannes Koch, Brandon University Supervisor: Dr. David Sauchyn, Department of Geography Committee Member: Dr. Joseph Piwowar, Department of Geography Committee Member: Dr. Jeannine Marie St. Jacques, Adjunct Chair of Defense: Dr. Darlene Juschka, Department of Women’s & Gender Studies ABSTRACT Water resources of the southwestern Canadian Prairies are limited and sensitive to changes in climate and land cover. An increasing demand for water resources has increased vulnerability to hydrological drought. Because few instrumental records exceed 100 years, climate proxies are used to extend the historical record of natural variability. Understanding the frequency, magnitude, and duration of past climate extremes allows researchers to better forecast the probability of future extreme hydrological events. Through standard dendrochronological methods, fifteen moisture sensitive tree- ring chronologies (Pinus albicaulis, Pinus ponderosa, Pinus contorta, Picea glauca, and Pseudotsuga menziesii) were collected and updated from the Sweet Grass Hills and Bears Paw Mountains (Montana, USA), and the Cypress Hills (Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada). Correlation analysis was used to identify significant relationships between tree- ring chronologies (annual, earlywood, and latewood) and streamflow data, and multiple linear regression techniques were used to create robust multi-proxy reconstructions of mean summer (June – August) and average water-year (October – September) streamflow of the Frenchman River, Battle Creek, and Swift Current Creek in southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada, back to the late 1600s. Reconstructions developed for southwestern Saskatchewan explain approximately 40-55% of the instrumental variance for summer, and water-year streamflow. Hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) were quantified, classified and ranked on their severity (25th and 75th percentiles respectively; periods of critical hydrologic drought were defined by the lowest 10th i percentile), and periods of extreme low flow were identified for the early 1700s, mid 1700s, early 1800s, mid to late 1800s, early 1900s, and late 1900s. Spectral analyses (Multi-taper and Wavelet) of the reconstructed streamflow revealed common cycles of variability at the inter-annual (~2-6 year) and multi-decadal (~20-30 year) scales of ocean-atmosphere oscillations, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The level of uncertainty for each reconstruction was assessed, and results were compared to other dendroclimatological reconstructions for the western regions of Canada and the USA. Results show the large natural variability of prairie water levels, with cycles of decades with high flow followed by decades of low flow, and more extreme flows than in the instrumental records. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Financial support for this research was provided from the Rural Community Adaptation to Drought (RCAD) Project through SSHRC funding from the Canadian Plains Research Centre (CPRC). The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) provided funding through their Adaptation to Climate Change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces Graduate Scholarship, and the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research and Department of Geography of the University of Regina provided support through Graduate Teaching Assistantships. I would like to express my gratitude to the many individuals who have contributed to the completion of this work. I wish to thank my advisor, Dr. David Sauchyn - first for the opportunity to challenge myself academically, but also for his professional guidance and patience throughout this research. Thanks to Dr. Harry Polo Diaz and the research team involved in the RCAD project for their ideas and insight. I want to extend my appreciation to my fellow graduate students and research assistants – especially Jessica Vanstone and Cesar Perez-Valdivia, who spent countless hours of their time guiding me through proper techniques; to Ben Brodie and Tiffany Vass for their assistance in the field and lab; and of course to Dr. Mary Vetter, who made the hike to the top of the Sweet Grass Hills one of the most memorable days of my life. Most importantly, I am grateful for my family and friends who showed their emotional encouragement, confidence, and support throughout the completion of this challenge. Jeremy, mom and dad, Stephanie, Jacquie, Scott and Amanda, thank-you for believing in me. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS page ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ iii TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ vi LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... vii LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................................. viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................1 1.1 Background ...........................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Drought .......................................................................................................8 1.2 Research objectives .............................................................................................10 1.3 Description of study area .....................................................................................12 1.3.1 Geography and climate .............................................................................12 1.3.2 Hydrology – Surface water flows .............................................................15 1.4 Overview of chapters ...........................................................................................17 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF DENDROCHRONOLOGY .......18 2.1 Dendrochronology ...............................................................................................18 2.2 Philosophical and theoretical foundations ............................................................18 2.2.1 Principles of dendrochronology ................................................................18 2.2.2 Uncertainties and limitations of dendrochronology...................................21 2.3 Multi-proxy approach ..........................................................................................25 2.4 Hydrological consideration .................................................................................27 2.5 The connection between tree-growth and streamflow ........................................28 2.6 Previous studies ...................................................................................................31 2.6.1 USA ..........................................................................................................31 2.6.2 Canada ......................................................................................................38 CHAPTER 3: TREE-RING AND HYDROLOGICAL DATASETS ..............................45 3.1. Tree-ring data .....................................................................................................45 3.1.1 Site selection and sampling methodology .................................................45 3.1.2 Chronology development and properties ..................................................52 3.2 Hydrologic and instrumental data .......................................................................57 3.3 Exploratory analysis ............................................................................................62 3.3.1 The relationship between streamflow and climate ...................................63 iv 3.3.2 The relationship between tree-growth and climate ...................................63 3.3.3 The relationship between tree-rings and streamflow ................................64 CHAPTER 4: STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION METHODOLOGY …. ………68 4.1 Reconstruction techniques .................................................................................. 68 4.2 Statistics and validation ..................................................................................... 73 CHAPTER 5: STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTIONS .............................................. 76 5.1 Results and discussion ....................................................................................... 76 5.1.1 Calibration periods
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