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Home , Maryam Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Third Sharif ministry

INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES AND ANALYSES

eekly E-BULLETINE-BULLETIN PROJECT w July 24-30, 2017

This E-Bulletin focuses on major developments in Pakistan on weekly basis and brings them to the notice of strategic analysts and policy makers in .

EDITORIAL Nawaz’s disqualification is not based on the report submitted by the Joint investigation Team (JIT) which nce again the fall out of Supreme Court verdict has asked for further investigation into ’s that dismissed before he could financial trail. Rather, Pakistan’s Supreme Court found complete him term hogged the headlines in Sharif guilty under Article 62 and 63 and disqualified O him from holding the office for not being “honest”. Pakistan. In fact Sharif ’s dismissal overshadowed the news of blast where 21 people were killed. As These articles were introduced during former military accountability is becoming increasingly vogue politically ruler General Zia ul Haq’s regime which requires a in Pakistan the controversial Accountability Act member parliament to be Ameen (honest) and Sadiq 2017 was passed with a majority vote. (morally upright). It is likely that this verdict may help PML-N in the next election which would project Sharif as a political martyr who has falled victim to a conspiracy. COMMENTARY Reasons Why Nawaz Sharif was ousted

From Rad-ul Fassad to Rad-ul Sharif: Nawaz Sharif ’s disqualification is not something that Military does it again happened overnight. Attempt to remove Sharif was Yaqoob ul Hassan* brewing for some time. It actually started when Sharif begun his third stint as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif ’s ouster by the five member bench of One would have expected that Nawaz might have Pakistan Supreme Court that was hearing the Panama acquired political acumen and learnt how to deal with case has dashed the hope of Sharif completing his third powerful military establishment during his days in exile. term in the office – twice he has been removed before After election, a triumphant Nawaz thought differently. he could complete his full term. This decision has He annoyed the establishment by filing a treason case polarised public opinion in Pakistan. Mostly the against the former military ruler who opposition and particularly the supporters of the PTI had removed him in a coup in 1999, showed his keenness are overjoyed by this decision. The numerous sits-ins to improve relations with India and , and could not dislodge Sharif and the Panama paper finally publicly supported who accused ISI of trying pinned the Sharifs and ousted him from power. The to eliminate him by visiting him in the hospital and also opposition believe that Nawaz Sharif ’s disqualification not towing the military’s line in the leak case. proved the rule of law triumphed. And they also see Military used its protégé, to orchestrate a this as the first step in ensuring accountability and rule protest against him in with the objective of of law which are essential part of democratic norm cornering Sharif to tow the military line of thinking in which makes elected leaders accountable to the electors. many of the issues that Sharif had differed. Sharif also But the critics describe Sharif ’s removal as judicial coup compromised and allowed Musharraf to travel abroad that has the blessings of the establishment. Ironically ostensibly to meet his ailing mother and tried to take

1 less confrontationist path and tried to tow the Army minister one could see a less confrontational approach line by allowing military operation in the tribal area after towards army. His main focus would be 2018 elections. school tragedy and also raised the Kashmir For that he has to deliver what PMLN promised during issue in the UN and declared as a martyr last election campaign. Their main focus would be on to win back establishment’s trust. However, Panama leak delivering electricity and complete electricity projects to emerged as a major instrument in the hand of the Army resolve a crippling energy crisis before the next elections. and a judiciary willing to do its bait. Interestingly, the He would prefer cordial relations with army and is likely media wing of the armed forces, ISPR, issued a to tow the Army line in foreign policy. Army may also statement saying that Army is keenly watching the use this time to go against the sectarian elements in Panama case proceedings. Punjab where they were denied free hand by Sharif family. Historically in Pakistan Judiciary has sanctified military rules and justified removal of the civilian governments Conclusion: under ‘doctrine of necessity’. Therefore, verdict of the The has ruled the country most of its judiciary does not come as a surprise. The other fact is time and therefore establishing civilian supremacy over that two of six members of JIT which produced the the military would remain a distant dream. Given the evidence spread over 256 pages were from the ISI and fact that military is powerful and can intimidate various the Military Intelligence. Some homework was already institutions to tow its line democracy will remain fragile. done even before the formation of JIT. Otherwise it Moreover, the political parties’ eager to assume power would not have been possible to amass that much of is likely to remain a hand maiden of the military. With evidence within 60 days only, that too related to off the judiciary willing to oblige the powerful establishment, shore companies and properties outside Pakistan. it is likely Zia era provisions in the constitution would Although army wasn’t happy with Nawaz Sharif ’s become handy. At the end of it, it is advantage Army daughter Mariam Nawaz being allowed to sit in every where it remains the real ruler without the responsibility important meetings between the army and the civilians, of governance. it considers Mariam as the sole culprit for the dawn leaks scandal. She was almost a de-facto spokesperson of the *Yaqoob ul Hassan is a Researcher at IDSA and a government and used social media effectively to counter member of Pakistan Project. the opposition. Moreover, the PML-N was all set to [perform well in the next election. THE WEEK AT A GLANCE The Pakistan -Nawaz (PML-N) nominated Shahid as the prime minister ECONOMY and he was elected by the parliament with 221 votes. Earlier it was believed that he would be an interim prime With govt fixated on Panamagate, state minister for 45 days and then replaced by Shahbaz Sharif business suffers who would be contesting in the seat vacated by Nawaz Sharif. But now it is reported in the media that Abbasi The ongoing political turmoil has virtually halted the will remain prime ministership till the next general ‘business of the state’ on key foreign policy and national elections in early 2018. This is because PML-N does security issues, according to officials and observers. At not want to lose Punjab which is a strong bastion of a time when all attention is focused on the apex court the Sharif ’s and a determining factor in the next election. and whether it will disqualify Prime Minister Nawaz Shahbaz Sharif who is the Chief Minister of Punjab Sharif for ‘concealing his assets’, Pakistan has to take have hold the party in a good stead in the home bastion. crucial foreign policy decisions in the wake of the tough There are other reports that the Sharif family could not stance the administration is considering reach a consensus on who will succeed him in Punjab. against Islamabad in its policy review for South Asia. Indications are that Pakistan may have to deal with Abbasi is known for his old military links. Like Sharif, increased pressure from the to do more he is known as a Zia’s boy. With his elevation as a prime against groups such as Afghan and Haqqani

2 Network. Washington has already withheld $50 million POLITICS military reimbursements after the US defence secretary refused to certify that Pakistan was taking enough Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Is measures against militant groups, including Haqqani Toppled by Corruption Case Network, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. Nawaz Sharif, the tycoon and party leader who helped https://tribune.com.pk/story/1464937/govt-fixated- define a turbulent era of Pakistani politics, stepped down panamagate-state-business-suffers/ as prime minister after the Supreme Court ruled that corruption allegations had disqualified him. Coming Sindh government passes controversial bill with less than a year to go in his term, his ouster adds to amid protest a grim and long list of civilian governments cut short in Pakistan including two of his own previous terms as Amid strong protests by the opposition parties, the prime minister. And it will further roil the country’s provincial assembly passed on Wednesday the tumultuous political balance, as his rivals vie to exploit controversial Sindh Accountability Act 2017 with a his fall. Announced by the five-member Supreme Court, majority vote. The joint opposition parties in the the verdict on Friday caps more than a year of high assembly protested and said they would challenge it in political drama, breathless court proceedings and the court as no provincial assembly can pass a law after a piercing investigation into the finances of the family. repealing the federal law. He Sindh Accountability Act The fragile democratic system in this nuclear-armed 2017 will apply to all officeholders who are performing nation of almost 200 million people again appears to their functions in connection with affairs of the be on shaky ground. And Mr. Sharif’s own political government funds in Sindh and include the transaction legacy stands further tarnished. and utilisation of government money. Under the new law, Sindh Accountability Agency (SAA) will be set-up, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/28/world/asia/pakistan- which will be headed by a chairperson. prime-minister-nawaz-sharif-removed.html https://tribune.com.pk/story/1467248/sindh-govt-passes- Shahbaz to succeed Nawaz as PM, Shahid controversial-bill-amid-protest/ Khaqan Abbasi to take over in the interim

Govt to provide guarantees for LNG pipeline PML-N leaders, in a parliamentary committee meeting financing headed by ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Saturday, decided that Nawaz’s younger brother, Shahbaz As the country’s gas reserves deplete, the federal Sharif, should take over as the party’s leader in government has agreed to provide guarantees for raising parliament. Additionally, , who Rs175 billion for building a third liquefied natural gas was the petroleum minister, will take over as interim (LNG) pipeline for the supply of imported gas to prime minister till the time Shahbaz is elected to Punjab, which has been most affected by the declining parliament, and then to the prime minister’s office. reserves. “Guarantees will be provided on the basis of Shahbaz’s ascension to the prime minister’s office is strength of the gas infrastructure development cess considered to be a foregone conclusion, as the PML-N (GIDC) funds,” said Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Federal continues to hold a hefty majority in parliament and Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources. Abbasi can independently vote him into office. He will also likely revealed that so far Rs258.8 billion had been collected seek election to the from Nawaz in GIDC from various stakeholders including the receipt Sharif ’s constituency, which is a PML-N stronghold. of Rs122 billion after the passage of GIDC Act in parliament in 2014. https://www.dawn.com/news/1348391 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1468248/govt-provide- Interior Ministry puts Sharifs on Exit Control guarantees-lng-pipeline-financing/ List

Sources in the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA)

3 confided in that FIA’s immigration head UN body asks Pakistan to criminalise Wajid Zia (JIT’s head), with the approval of Interior enforced disappearances Ministry, has enlisted the name of Sharif family members on Exit Control List (ECL) on Friday. The United Nations Human Rights Commission Following the Panama Leaks case verdict of Supreme (UNHRC) has recommended Pakistani government to Court of Pakistan, names of ex PM Nawaz Sharif, criminalise enforced disappearances in its concluding , Hussain Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz, and remarks on Pakistan’s first ever review following the Captain (retd) were put on ECL. country’s ratification of the International Covenant on Until the accountability court decides their fate within Civil and Political Rights. The commission has asked the given six months, no one can leave the country. The the government to investigate all known cases of source also said that, in all the high profile cases, NAB disappearances and extra judicial killings and penalise puts accused people in ECL regularly, adding it is a matter those responsible for these acts. It has held that the of routine. government should ensure that penalties are ‘commensurate with the gravity of crimes’. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/07/28/interior- ministry-put-sharifs-on-exit-control-list/ http://dailytimes.com.pk/pakistan/28-Jul-17/un-body- asks-pakistan-to-criminalise-enforced-disappearances

SECURITY National Action Plan must be implemented: PUC 26 killed in blast near Lahore’s Ferozepur Road To eliminate the menace of extremism and terrorism, the government has to ensure the implementation of At least 26 people, including nine policemen, were killed the National Action Plan, said participants of a religious while 58 others were injured in a bombing attack near seminar. The ‘Tahafuz Harman Al Sharifain Al-Aqsa the Arfa Karim IT Tower on Lahore’s Ferozepur Road Conference’ had been organised in Faisalabad by the on Monday afternoon. Lahore’s DIG Operations Dr Pakistan Ulema Council (PUC) and Jamiat Ulema Ahl Haider Ashraf said that the blast, which occurred at Hadis. The conference was attended by representatives around 3:55pm, was a “suicide attack” and that “police of various religious and political organizations and were the target”. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ulema. The speakers emphasised the need to carry out claimed responsibility, stating that a “suicide attacker” a joint struggle against elements responsible for had used a motorcycle bomb to target police officials. disrupting peace of Islamic countries. The speakers also Lahore has been targeted by terrorists in recent months. urged the political leadership of the country to counter the allegations of US and Afghan leadership. https://www.dawn.com/news/1347364/26-killed-in-blast- near-lahores-ferozepur-road http://dailytimes.com.pk/pakistan/28-Jul-17/national-action- plan-must-be-implemented-puc

PROJECT TEAM

Smruti Pattanaik, Ashok Behuria, Sumita Kumar, Priyanka Singh, Yaqoob ul Hassan, Mir Ahmad Nazir, Zainab Akhter, Mohammad Eisa.

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses 1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg New Delhi 110 010 India T +91-11-2671 7983 F +91-11-2615 4191 4 [email protected] www.idsa.in Twitter @IDSAIndia www.facebook.com/InstituteforDefenceStudiesAnalyses