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Backdraft: the Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM REPORT 2013 BACKDRAFT: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation EDITED BY Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Lauren Herzer, Schuyler Null, Meaghan Parker, and Russell Sticklor VOL ISSUE 14 02 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM REPORT 2013 BACKDRAFT: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation EDITED BY Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Lauren Herzer, Schuyler Null, Meaghan Parker, and Russell Sticklor ECSP REPORT Series Editor: Meaghan Parker Design and Production: Lianne Hepler Cover Photograph: ©Robb Kendrick, Getty Images SUGGESTED CITATION Dabelko, Geoffrey D., Lauren Herzer, Schuyler Null, Meaghan Parker, & Russell Sticklor (Eds). (2013). Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation (Environmental Change & Security Program Report Vol. 14, Issue 2). Washington DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The contents of this report are the responsibility of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Government. Views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Center’s staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or programs that provide assistance to the Center. CONTENTS Eyes Open: Recognizing the Conflict Potential of 2 Climate Change Responses GEOFFREY D. DABELKO The Need for Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation 5 DENNIS TÄNZLER, ALEXANDER CARIUS, AND ACHIM MAAS SPOTLIGHT: In the Rush for Land, Who Will Pay? 13 CHRISTINA DAGGETT Resource Curses: Redux, Ex-Post, or Ad Infinitum? 16 STACY D. VANDEVEER Forests and Conflict: The Relevance of REDD+ 26 DENNIS TÄNZLER SPOTLIGHT: The Biofuels Transition 34 CHRISTIAN WEBERSIK AND MIKAEL BERGIUS Climate Gambit: Engineering Climate Security Risks? 37 ACHIM MAAS AND IRINA COMARDICEA Risk and Scenario Planning for Climate Security 49 CHAD M. BRIGGS BACKDRAFT: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation 1 Eyes Open: Recognizing the Conflict Potential of Climate Change Responses GEOFFREY D. DABELKO, Professor and Director of Environmental Studies, Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs, Ohio University and Senior Advisor, Environmental Change and Security Program, Woodrow Wilson Center Lithium flats of Bolivia. Courtesty of flickr user Eva L., http://www.flickr.com/photos/13724361@N00/5381939519. 2 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM REPORT 2013 AMID THE GROWING NUMBER of reports warn- communities with a potential blueprint for conflict- ing that climate change could threaten national security, sensitive adaptation measures. another potentially dangerous—but counterintuitive— With climate change slated to place further strain dimension has been largely ignored. Could efforts to on the planet’s already overburdened natural resourc- reduce our carbon footprint and lower our vulnerability es, regions rich in natural wealth may find themselves to climate change inadvertently exacerbate existing con- increasingly drawn into conflict as competition for flicts—or create new ones? arable land, water, oil, and mineral wealth increases. In If designed or implemented without consideration “Resource Curses: Redux, Ex-Post, or Ad Infinitum?” for conflict potential, unforeseen negative spillover Stacy VanDeveer peers over the horizon, speculat- effects might damage economic development prospects, ing about the fate of oil-exporting states as the world undermine political stability, or fray the social fabric of economy slowly transitions away from fossil fuels. communities. How can policymakers anticipate and Highlighting the complications inherent in petroleum minimize these potential risks? More ambitiously, can states’ eventual transition away from an oil-based econ- mitigation and adaptation efforts be designed to not omy—a transition that will not be welcomed by OPEC only avoid conflict, but also help build peace? member states—VanDeveer contends it is analytically The potential security risks posed by mitigation and important to examine how countries with significant adaptation policies and technologies are intriguing and depletions of fossil-fuel reserves have handled such tran- underexplored aspects of climate change responses. sitions in the past. Using the lens of “peak oil,” he points Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Mitigation out that a greener world energy supply might destabilize and Adaptation draws on the insights of leading envi- regimes traditionally propped up by oil revenue. ronmental security experts to examine different facets Turning to a vulnerable global resource threat- of the conflict potential of climate change mitigation ened by both climate change and economic develop- and adaptation—not only physical violence, but also ment, Dennis Tänzler examines the fate of woodlands the broader spectrum of social and political confronta- in “Forests and Conflict: The Relevance of REDD+.” tion. A parallel line of inquiry—the potential of climate Focusing on the United Nations’ Reducing Emissions mitigation and adaptation efforts to build peace and from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) encourage cooperation—is not addressed in this series program, Tänzler explores not only REDD’s positive but holds great promise for future analysis. economic and environmental benefits for forest-rich countries in the developing world, but also highlights how such initiatives could trigger disputes over land Defining Backdraft: rights, carbon ownership, and equitable distribution of A New Research Program REDD-related financial benefits. He concludes with a Can subnational and transnational climate change series of policy recommendations to improve the effec- adaptation be harnessed as a tool for peace? In their tiveness of such initiatives through heightened incorpo- essay “The Need for Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to ration of local conflict dynamics in target countries. Climate Change,” Dennis Tänzler, Alexander Carius, In “Climate Gambit: Engineering Climate Security and Achim Maas kick off Backdraft by placing differ- Risks?” Achim Maas and Irina Comardicea analyze one ent adaptation approaches in the context of current of the most controversial aspects of climate change miti- international climate talks. The authors urge policy- gation and adaptation—geoengineering. The techno- makers to think beyond national borders in order to logical revolution of the last 50 years has turned what more effectively address the transboundary impacts of was once the realm of science fiction—such as seeding climate change in conflict settings. A series of policy clouds with chemical pellets to induce rain or burying recommendations provides the aid and development harmful atmospheric gases deep beneath the earth— BACKDRAFT: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation 3 into real science. This technology is now available to policy challenge that we must face head-on. To avoid or any nation with the financial and physical capabil- downplay the possibility of conflict generated or exac- ity to deploy it. What are the security implications of erbated by such changes threatens the larger project of using these novel, but largely untested, technologies? aggressively addressing climate change. Three key prin- Could deployment of geoengineering technology in the ciples should inform our policy decisions on climate skies, seas, or soils of one country inadvertently impact change adaptation and mitigation: weather or soil fertility in a neighboring country? More broadly, how can policymakers ensure that such tech- ● Do no harm: Recognize that all interventions nology, once deployed, remains under control, and does have the potential to exacerbate or alleviate not trigger unintended impacts? Maas and Comardicea existing tensions. analyze both the drawbacks and positive potential of humans exercising greater control over the natural envi- ● Be open to new ideas: Improve communica- ronment in the coming decades. tion and collaboration across communities and dis- Stressing that climate change impacts unfold across vari- ciplines, from climate science and natural resource ous sectors of society and rarely occur in isolation, Chad management experts to international development Briggs argues in “Risk and Scenario Planning for Climate entities and the military. Intelligent adaptation Security” that new models are needed to more accurately and mitigation policies need flexible programs that analyze current climate security hotspots and forecast future measure their success against multiple objectives, flashpoints. Since older notions of state security do not not just one target. necessarily apply to climate change—given the long time horizons that typically characterize climate change impacts ● Build pathways to peace: Identify and imple- —models must incorporate system-level vulnerabilities, ment climate change programs that can support more tightly focused data gathering and analysis, and an peacebuilding initiatives. understanding of how different governmental systems and adaptation measures influence climate-security outcomes. The contributors to Backdraft help lay the groundwork Rounding out Backdraft are spotlights on two key for this emerging field. The authors examine and weigh the emerging issues. Christian Webersik and Mikael Bergius considerations we must bear in mind as we make the nec- shine a light on how measures to reduce future emissions essary transition to a greener economy. The types of tactics levels by supporting
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