SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE SOUTHWEST COLORADO

Colorado Natural Heritage Program Salt Lake

Denver SERVING San Juan SOUTHWEST Mountains COLORADO & FOUR CORNERS where the Rocky Mountains dive into the Southwestern desert Flagstaff Albuquerque SANDSTONE & RED ROCK DESERT

COLORADO PLATEAU MEETS THE ROCKIES Project Goals To integrate climate science into decision-making • Build knowledge of social-ecological climate vulnerabilities to inform planning • Create scenarios and ecological models to facilitate decision-making under uncertainty • Develop and prioritize adaptive capacities and institutional arrangements • Document best practices for bringing climate science into decision-making 69% TOTAL LAND BASE = PUBLIC LANDS

• Range 40-89% IMAGE OF THE OLD WEST IMAGE OF NEW WEST

TOURISM- 33% AG/RANCH- 1%

MINERALS/ AMENITY/SECOND OIL & GAS- 8% HOMES - 15% Ecological-Climate-Social

CLIMATE SYSTEM

Project Focus Knowledge ECOLOGICAL SOCIAL Livelihoods Ecosystems SYSTEMS SYSTEM Governance Species Culture Functions Values Processes

Choose four The How adaptation targets Understand Current Develop three Management and Context climate and narrative scenarios Monitor and Evaluate Develop Range of Future Changes

Conduct interviews , focus groups, and workshops

Implement Identify Priority Actions Concerns

Develop Plan for Select Priority Action Strategies Develop ecological response models

Modified from Stein et al. 2014, Cross et al, and a whole lot of others Priorities Capacity Policies Resources The What Understand Current Management and Context Invasives Drought Monitor and Flooding Evaluate Develop Range of Future Changes Fire Insects & Disease

Implement Identify Priority Impacts Actions Concerns Concerns Conflicts Strategies

Develop Plan for Select Priority Action Strategies Resources Barriers Coordinated Actions Practice changes Enabling conditions Policy Changes No Regrets

Modified from Stein et al. 2014, Cross et al, and a whole lot of others Pinyon-Juniper Landscape Choose Adaptation Targets

Sagebrush Landscape Springs Springs and

Spruce-Fir Landscape Seeps Produced Down-Scaled Climate Projections And Scenarios • Imtiaz Rangwala produced three climate projections • Annual, winter, and summer temperature and precipitation for SW Colorado

Hot/Dry (#60)

Moderate Warming/ No Change In Precipitation (#45) 2000 -

Warm/Wet (#11) All changes relative All 1971 changes to relative Developed Three Narrative Scenarios

• Hot and Dry – Fire, Drought, Insects • Moderate warming – Feast or Famine • Warm and Wet – That’s nice

•We described ecological impacts for the landscape and selected targets –E.g., Fire intensity, severity, and scope rise 10 fold over current and past conditions in hot and dry scenario –If it doesn’t burn then it dies from insects and pathogen outbreaks –Water volume in streams and reservoirs is reduced

HD Sagebrush Ecological Response MH Model to Three Climate Scenarios WW HD MH WW Low Elevation Montane Sagebrush Sagebrush

Hybrid Zone

HD Mortality of Montane Grasslands MH sagebrush in WW 0 patches >500 Decrease in numbers and size and ac transforms High Elevation transforms into montane shrubland site into a Meadows novel HD grassland MH HD Aspen Patches that includes WW 0 cheatgrass MH WW Low Elevation Grasslands HD MH Mesic Swales Seeps and Springs WW 0 Increase in size and condition degrades

Decrease in numbers and volume HD MH WW 0

HD = Hot and Dry; MH = Moderately Hot / no change in precip; WW = Warm and Wet Stakeholder Interviews

Interviews •25-40 individual interviews in each basin to help assess how agencies manage their adaptation targets in the face of change. •Major questions included: – Importance of the targets, management objectives, challenges or threats; – Knowledge about the targets and perceived knowledge gaps; – Perceptions of how climate change affects targets and management planning; – Questions about uncertainty, climate adaptation, and agency capacity.

Stakeholder Focus Groups/Workshops

• Narrative scenarios presented and discussed • Adaptation strategies brainstorming session • Major questions included: – How will management change under these different scenarios? – What impacts would you be concerned about? – What conflicts and opportunities would you envision? – What are pathways for adaptation strategies? Reflecting on Stuff and Things

• Simultaneous research, planning, management- its patting your head, rubbing your stomach

• Constraints- semantics matter!

• Co-production- double the budget!

• Question of integration- how and when

SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE SOUTHWEST COLORADO

Colorado Natural Heritage Program