rF*o yearsago, PervezMusharraf, I *ho was then President andfumychief, summonedhis most se- nior generals and two Forergn Ministry officials to a seriesofmeetings at his miJ'- itary office in . There' they rwiewed the progressof a secret,sensi- tive negotiation with , known to its participantsas "the back channel."For ie,r.ralye"tt, specialenvoys from Paki- stan and India had been holding talks in hotel rooms in Bangkok, ' and . Musharraf and Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister oflndia' had encouraged the negotiators to seekwhat some involved called a "paradigm shiff' in relationsbetween the two nations. The agendaincluded a searchfor an end to the long fight over Kashmir, a contest that is often describedbyWest- ern military analysts as a potential trig- ger for atomic war. (India first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, and did so in 1998.)Since achieving inde- pendence,rn7947, India and Pakistan -have fought three wars and countless skirmishes acrossKashmir's mountain passes.The largest part of the territory is occupied by India, and - have long rallied around the cause of liberating it. The rwo principal en- voys-for Pakistan, a college classmate of Musharraf's named Tari qAziz, and, for India, a Russiaspecialist named Sat- inder Lambah-were developing what diplomats refer to as a "non-paper" on Kashmir, a text without namesor sig- natures which can serve as a deniable but detailed basisfor a deal. At the Rawalpindi meetings, Mu- sharrafdrew his generalsinto a debate about the fundamental definition of Pakistads national security' "It was no- longer fashionable to think in some of the old terms," Khurshid Kasuri, who was then Foreign Minister, and who at- tended the sessions,recalled. "Pakistan had become a nuclear Power. War was no longer an option for either side."Ka- suri said to the generalsthat onlyby di- plomary could they achieve their goals in Kashmir. He told them, he recalled, "Put your hand here-on your heart- and tell me that Kashmir will gain free- doni'without such a negoliation with India. The generals at the table accePted this view, Kasuri said. They "trusted in Srinagar uith theAssociation of Parent ( Musharraf" he continued' 'Their raison A Kashmiri man anestedprotesting

38 THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2'2OO9 d'6tre is not permanent enmity with sageto India: Manmohan Singlis visit pudiated Musharraf and his politica India. Their raison d'6tre is Pakistan's should be delayed so that Musharraf allies.In August, 2008, Musharraf re- permanent security. And what is secu- could regain his political balance.India, signedand retiredfrom public life. rity? Safety ofour borders and our eco- too, was facing domestic complications, nomic development." in the form ofregional elections.In New Jn the slrty-oneyears of their existence By early 2007, the back-channel Deihi, the word in national-securitycir- Ithe governmentsoflndia andPakistar talks on Kashmir had become "so ad- cles had been that "any day we're go- have periodically funded covert cam- vanced that we'd come to semicolonsr" ing to have an agreementon Kashmir," paignsofguerrilla or terrorist violenceor Kasuri recalled.A senior Indian official Gurmeet Kanwal, a retired Indian briq- each other's soil; as a result, each nov who was involved agreed."It was huge- I think it would have changedthe basic r 1 r:!r nature of the problem," he told me. ,ir '.,.2 { i\llKls 'You would have then had the freedom ' V to remake Indo-Pakistani relations." sl' {/ l^ .- Aziz and Lambah were negor;aring 5 '. 'r. .:. llt NORTHfffiN .-. T.i the details for a visit to Pakistan by the * AII6AS Ct Indian Prime Minister during which, d. they hoped, the principles underlying v K4 . 8 the Kashmir agreementwould be an- ' e Kalrul ., ,.:i : o^ ,!,,''l',,',,',,',,',,i,', nounced and talks aimed at implemen- * AZAI) '4? ,, lp tation would be inaugurated.One quar- KA S''MIR- .,,r,;.,.n"f]'N'rrr',;,or rel, over awaterwayknown asSir Creek, l'r"hiirrrr ,,.114 14L ,l,\D would be formally settled. lslanrahi,l :il::. K1tSllllrn ', Neither government) hovzever,had ;,"',.," I .

done much to prepare its public for a ']arnmu breakthrough. In the spring of 2007, a military aide in Musharraf 's oflice con- tacteda seniorcivilian ollicial to askhow politicians, the media, and the public might react. "We think we're closeto l a deal," Musharraf's aide said, as this official recalledit. "Do you thinkwe can "l l sell it?" ,1" Regrettably,the time did not look Nntjrr' ripe, this offrcial recalled answering.In 1., earlyMarch, Musharaf had invoked his New Delbi * .c- ir: near-dictatorial powers to fire the chief justice of the country's highest court. That decisionset ofrrock-tossing pro- Kashtnir hasprovedresistant to both Indian and Pakistani claims ta savereign$ there. tests by lawyers and political activists. The General s popularity seemedto be adier, recalled."But Musharraf lost his holds unshakableassumotions about the eroding by the day; he had seizedpower constituencies." other'sprocliviry for dir-tytricks. In Pa- in a coup tn 1999, and had enjoyedpub- Rather than recovering, the Gen- kistan,for example,it is an articleoffaith lic support for severalyears, but now eral slipped into a political death spiral. among many senior Army olficers that he was approaching "the point where Armed Islamist radicalstook control of India's foreign-intelligence service,the he couldn't sell himse[" the official re- the Red Mosque, in ,and, in Researchand Analysis Wing, or R.A.W, members saying, never mind a surprise July, Musharraf ordered a is providing guns and money to ethnic peaceagreement with India. raid to expel them. Sensing a political Baluch and Pashtun groups that operatr Kasuri was among the Musharraf opening, the countrys two most popu- along the Afghan border, and who seel adviserswho felt that the Pakistanis lar civilian politicians, to separatefrom or overthrow the Pr should postpone the summit-that they and , whom Musharraf kistani government. Equally, in Indiar "should not waste" the negotiated draft had forced into exile, agitated to be al- cabinet and parliament, it is taken for agreements by revealing them when lowed to return. By year'send, public granted that the leader- Musharraf might not be able to forge pressurehad forced Musharraf to give ship providesaid to jihadi groups so tha a national consensus.Even if it became up his Army command. A suicide they can carryout terrorist attackson In. necessaryto hold offfor months oryears, bomber murdered Bhutto in a public dian soil-the latest example being thr Kasuri believed,'\Me had done so much park just a month later. Her widower, band of ten young men who arrivedin ar work that it will not be lost." Asif Zardari,led their political party to inflatable dinghy at Mumbar"s Badhwa Pakistan'sgovernment sent a mes- victory in an electionin which votersre- Park last November 26th.

+O THE NE\/ YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 TheMumbai attackerscanied G.p.S. Pakistan-based,Saudi-influenced Isla- border, continue to say that there navigational equipment, a satellite is tele- mist terrorist and guerrilla force that no evidence phone, that activei.S.I. personnel cell phones suitable for loca1 Kasf,mir. lShtr A decadeago, participatedin or knew in advanceabout Mumbai networks, grenades, Kalash- Lashkar's-.rtrtyinemir,HafizSaeed, announJed the Mumbai strike. Yet critical evi- nikovs, and 9-millimetre pistols. which ,lMe his intention to destroy India: will dence,such they asinterrogations conducted employed to kill a Lundred and not rest until the whole [of] India is in Pakistan, is effectivelyunder I.S.I. sixty-five people, including six Ameri- dissolvedinto Pakistan." After the Mum- controJ;agents from the Federal Bureau cans,during a three-day spreeofnihilis- bai attack, Saeeddelivered a public ser- of Investigation, tic which has iurisdiction violence. More than most cells that mon in in which helpoke ap- in the matter under U.S. law, haveturned up in India in recentyears, because prwingly of a new "awakeningl' among American citizens thetenorists were arnong the vic- had productionvalues that Indian Muslims, and describJ his col tims, have been denied direct accessto seemedinspired by the September11th religionists as "secondto none in taking the Lashkar suspects. attacks: they struck at multiple sites revenge."A satellite-telephone .onu.r: It's also t*.1hut Pakistaris govern- in the heart of India's financial disrict sationbefween one of thi Mumbai ter- ment hasitselfbeen and exploited on the receivineend live television and radio rorists and a supervisorin .,ItI Pakistan, in- ofjihadi aftacl$in the pastye*. not coverage. tercepredindependentJy by the United as ifall this stuffis external and going Indian security servicesmanaged to States,also points to Lashkar'sinvolve_ into India," one official frorn interceptthe aftackers'telephone- u Nard calls. ment in the raid. government and said. 'They don't have the discoveredthat theywere speaking After many weeks of prevarication, capacityto defendIslamabad and pesha- to handlersin Pakistan.The Indians asl Pakisrani officials.on..d.d that the war. They're losing sembled a dossier, ground." -led containing excelpts Mumbai attackersappear to havecome insurgents today control large swaths of of these conversations, translated into pakistan from their .ountry. has de- teritory in English; paki- Pakistan'snonh-west, where which theypresented to tained and filed criminal chargesagainst they enforcea brutal regime of Islamic stan, the ,and other gov- at least one senior Lashkar comm-ander justice, and recendy signed a truce ernments; one version tanto ahundred with named in the Indian dossier.But it re- the government and eighteen in the Swat valley. Thev pages.In one intercept, mains unclear how far pakistan will so have mounted a bombing campaign that the.terroristsrejoice because televisi,on to dismantleLashkar. Since the eally has reached anchors Islamabaj; .o,o" ?f ,h. are comparing their work to nineteen-nineties,Pakistan's principal bombs havebeen aimed at the Army and 9/11.In rone and rhy.thm,the excerpts military-intelligence service,Inter-Ser- the I.S.I., suggestinga loss of control su_ggesrsomething of the banaliry of vicesIntelligence, or I.S.I., has armed by the I.S.I. cell-phone-enabled over its jihadi clients, or massmurder: and funded Lashkar to foment upheaval a split within the Pakistani secwity ser_ in Indian-held CATLEn: Let me talk to Umar. Kashmir. Alihoush vices,or both RrcEIVtn: Note a number. many Number is of Pakistan'sgenerah ,..ulm InJanuary, Prime 0043720880764. "r. Minister Sinsh re- or apglilcally religious, they have CILTER:Whose number is this? spon- marked that the Mumbai attackiould soredjihadis as a Rrctn'En: It is mine.The phoneis with me. low-cost means of not have been carried out without ,,the C,tLrrR:... Allah is helpingyou....Try ro keeping India off balance. support of some pa- settne placeon hre. official aqenciesin The historical ties berween Lashkar RtcttvER: We have set fire in four rooms. kistan." India neverthelesJreactedro the C,qr-LrR: and the Pakistanisecurity services . Peopleshall run helrerskelrer arefor attackwith relative restraint. Singh s gov_ whenthey see ihe flames.Keep throwing a the most part undispured;one book that emment hasnot grenadeevery fifteen ordereda maioimililarv minutes br so. It riill describesthem, published terrorize. in 2005 and mobilization, nor hasit launcled *y r.1 entitied "Between Mosque Here,talk to "Baba." and Mili- taliatory strikes against Pakistan. Were it C,qlt en,(2): A lot of policemenand Navy taly," was written by Huialn Haqqani, not for the personnelhave back-channel talks, the re_ coveredthe entrrearea. B-e who is currendy Pakistan's brave! Ambasiador sponsemight not havebeen so measured: to the United States. However, Briga_ Singh and at least some of his civilian dier Nazir Butt, a defense attach6at Ihe counterpartsin Pakistan hope.to find dossierleaves little doubt thar Embassyin Washington, -l-h. denied that theirwaybackrothe non-papir. But this I the attackoriginated in Pakistan:a his government had provided lethal aid *r} b. possibleonly ifjihadis don,t pro- manusing a Pakistani passportpaid for to Lashkar or to other violent groups. voke a war first. the terrorists'phone services;their pis- "Pakistan only extendedmoral and dlp- Many Indian tols were politicians and securify engraved with a lomatic support to the Kashmiri strug- analysts continue to call for miJitary a6'- er'saddress in Peshawaf -urtrfa.tur-and numer- gle for self-determination," he said. tion. Some predicted ro me rhat ;ddi- ousprovisions recovered from a fishine "After 9/7l,Paltstan withdrew all its tional jihadi attacks trawler that would take place the group used to ..r.h support for Kashmiri organizations and, during India's upcoming national elec- Mumbai from were made in as a consequence,drew violent attacks tion, in May; Pakistan. if such strikes do occur, on its military and national leadership." they said,it would be difficult for More specifically, the Indian govern- American officials, who rely uptn democratic government to resist public menCsdossier concludes that the Mum- the I.S.L's cociperation in their cam- calls for retaliation. For now, however. bai attack was cocirdinated by Lashkar- paigns againstAl Qeda and the Tali- the decisions_belong e-Taiba, pure-a to Singh, a sevenry- or the Army of the ban along the Pakistan-Afqhanistan six-year-oldCambridge-educated econ-

THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 4I omist who recently underwent heart- mohan Singh remarked in public, "I about five hundred thousand soldiers ar blpass surgery.Singh's decision-making dream of a day, while retaining our re- paramilitaries-rarely speak the Kas appearsto be grounded in military real- spectivenational identities, one can have miri dialect. Locals resent them, and th ism; if India were to launch even selec- breakfastin Amritsar, lunch in Lahore, retum the attitude. I was travelling wi tive sffikes, it would likely only deepen and dinner in Kabul." a Kashmiri journalist, Basharat Pe< Pakistan s internal turmoil and thus ex- These hopes, however quixotic, re- who is the author ofaforthcominsboc acerbatethe terrorist threat faced by flected a competition between two "Curfewed Nights," a coming-of-a, India. Any Indian military action would schoolsofradical thought the millenar- narrative set amid the regioris revolts a: alsorisk an escalationthat could include ian ofjihadi groups and their securitycrackdowns. Basharadspress cr nuclear deployments-which may be supporters; and the less well-known dentials had expired, but he had recen preciselywhat the jihadi leadershoped search by sections of the Indian and completed a fellowship at Columb to provoke. 'There is no militaryoption Pakistani 61itesfor a transformational University, and he had his library card; here," Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian peace.For both groups, Kashmir is difficult moments, we thrust it throul Ambassadorin Washington, said.India symbolically and ideologically impor- the window and shouted "NewYorkl," had to "isolate the terrorist elements"in tant. It is also, still, a territory ofgrind- if it tmmped all mles-and, each tim Pakistan, he said, not "ra77ythe nation ing, unfinished war. the soldiers backed off and waved r around them." tfuough. Negotiators involved in the secret Jndian paramilitarieshad placed Sri- We passednorth, through rice pa< back channel regardedthe effort as po- Inasar under an undeclaredcurfew dies and apple orchards-haunte< litically ris\y and exceptionally ambi- on ti-e morning this winter when I looking rows of barren trees. On tl tious-a potential turning point in his- sought to drive out of the city, which is horizon rosethe snowyridges of Himr tory asone official put it, comparableto the summer capital of India's Jammu layan foothills. Convoys of roop can the peaceforged between Germany and and Kashmir state. I wanted to visit a ers, water haulers, military tow truck France after the Second Wodd War. gravedigger in the northem sector ofthe and jeeps dogged the highway until v At issue, they believgd, was not just a Kashmir Valley, about fifteen miles turned down an embankment to the vi setdement in Kashmir itself but an end from the heavily militarized de-facto lage of Chahal, a hamlet of perhaps to their debilitating covert wars and, border between India and Pakistan hundred tin-roofed houses among te' eventually, their paranoiac mutual sus- knovrmas the Line of Control. raced fields besidetheJhelum River. picions. They hoped to develop a new Soldiers in overcoats and olive hel- Kashmiri villagers inhabit a politic regime offree trade and political cociper- mets huddled at checkpoints before open spaceconfined by roaming guerrillas c ation in the region, from Central Asia to fires;theywaved tree branchesor batons one side-some ofthem local bor,s.son Bangladesh.On January B, 2007, at the to stop cars for inspection. The Indian foreign jihadis from Pakistan-and t height of this optimistic interval, Man- ffoops on occupationdutyin Kashmir- Indian troops on the other. At the top r a hill, we found the residue of India counter-insurgencycampaign: a ne' concreteschool and clinic, constructedt India's government to appeasethe villap ers, and beside it, encircled by barbe wire, a field ofmuddydunes that held tl unmarked graves of about two hundre young men whose unidentified bodie had been delivered for burial by the In dianArmy. Just under a thousand graves con taining the corpses of unknown youn men have been discovered in Kashmi so far by investigatorsfrom the Associ I ation of Parents of Disappeared Per sons, a small advocacy organizationit Srinagar.Lastyear,a grenadewas tosser at the house of the lawyer who advise the group; he and his colleagueshav expanded their field surveys nonethe less.They believe that the bodies ther havefound areamong about eight thou: sandyoung men who have gone miss ing during the latest round of Kashmir'r Y,5^o wars;theyhypothesize that Indian secu" ,uell "Ideally, I ruant a guy tubose eyesrDill up but rtho doesn't actually cry." rity forces detained many of the victimr 1n secretprisons, tortured them, and shot them. Indian officials reiect these allegations;they have estimated the number of missing Kashmiri men at about four thousand, and speculated that they lefi for Pakistan for training so tha-t could {rey fight againstlndia, only to fhll in combat when they returned. In a small stone house, I met Atta Khan, a slight man with a trimmed white beard,who is the guard- ian of Chahal'stombs of unknowniebels. His workbegan in the late spring of2002, he told me, when a Kashmiri poli..-- arrivedin the villagewith a ctrpse in a tuck. The policemansaid that the victim was a Pakistani-supportedmfitant who had been shot deadin battle. 'They started bodies !1ngng everyren days, eight days, fifteen days, at times twice in one day," Khan said. Villages such as Chahal that are knor,rmto contain such graveshave be- come magnets for *This Kashmiri families tarnisheshis legacyas a great ltunter.', who arelooking for missing sons.When family members arrive bearing photo- graphs or other scrapsof evidence, Khan will exhume bodies for them. The gravedigger is himself a searcher; stan.The status proved ofa few territories crimination, staged a mass revolt. The I his nephew, whom he raised, disap- difficult to adjudicare.One was the for- I.S.I., which had usedIslamist militias pearedin2002. mer princely state ofJammu and Kash- the anti-Soviet campaigns in The Kashmir problem has a text- {u-rlng i mir, ruled by a Hindu maharaja and , reacted opportunisiically, book quality: a dispute of more than six Iargelyinhabited by poor MusJim peas- by arming those Islamist factions of the decades'duration, involving British co- ants. Under l Britain s demographii for- rebellion which sought to join Kashmir lonial concessions,United t l.Tationsres- mula, territories with Muslim maiorities to Pakistan. olutions, and a long record of formal were supposed to go to Pakistan,Lut the Initially, when Kashmiri Muslim I negotiations. But it is the character of maharajasigned an accessionaqreement boys from villages such as Chahal I the war within Kashmir-the torture tojoin India. Ayear larer,Pakiitan tried sneakedacross the Line of Control for I centers,the unmarked graves, and the to wrest away the ' t territory by sending weaponsand training, I.S.I. officers en- I remorselessviolence of the in a tribal iihadis- guerrilla force, a qambit thai couraged them to join a local Islamist that better describesthe contours of ended in a military stalemate.ln a sense, guerrilla group known as the Hezb- t Indo-Pakistani enmity today. In one pa- the war of guenilla infiltration that ul-, which was affiliated sense,the recent back-channel talks. kistan initiate d in 1948 has never ended. with the international networks of the with their promiseof a cleansingpeace, Ln7972, after their third formalwar. Muslim Brotherhood. During the late haveoffered each government a pith to India and Pakistan establishedthe Line nineties, however, Pakistan shifted evaderesponsibiliry for the evisceration ofControl and deployed artillery and much ofits support to Lashkar-e-Taiba, of Kashmiri villaqes and families. infantry along its length. On the In- which adheredto the Salafi strain ofls- India and Pakiitan each claims sover- dian side lay most of Kashmir, as well lamist thought prevalent in Saudi Ara- eigntyin Kashmir, but neither has found as -majorigr region ofJam- bia, and later to a jihadi group called to control the land or its people. mu and the Buddhist-influenced lway region Jaish-e-Mohammed, or the Army of Thesefailures are rooted in what was of Ladakh. On the Pakistani side tav Mohammed. The membershipofthese perhapsGreat Britairis greatest imperial a sliver of land now known u, AraA second-wavegroups came not from crime,the partition ofits Indian domain, Kashmir and a Himalayan region of Kashmir itself but from the puniab, which ignited violence that claimed Muslim tribes known as the Northern Pakistan'smost populous province, abouta million lives.In 1947, the British Areas. For almost two - decades,a rela- where the sufferinq of f.ilo--Murfir.r, government,bankrupted by the Second tive calm prevailed, but in late 1989-in- in Kashmir is routi-nelyexploited by re- World War, hastily completed a plan to spired by the fall of the Berlin Wall- and lgorrt nationalisticpolitical parties. dividethe subconiinentinto the newly Kashmiris on the Indian side,who were Lashkar's volunteers collaborated with independentnations of lndia and Pakil fed up with rigged i electionsand iob dis- Hezb-ul-Mujahideen cells, but they

THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 +3 weren't fighting and dying in Kashmir becausetheir families had ties to the dis- puted land; theywere there becausethey A STREET believed that God had called them to liberate the region's Muslims from I usedto be your favoritedrunk Hindu control. Good for one more laugh At least fifty thousand people have Then we both ran out of luck died in Kashmir's violence since 1989. And luckwas allwe had The pace of the killing has declined in recentyears, but bombings and assas- You out on a uniform sinations persist. Last August, on the To fight the CivilWar highwayjust above Chahal, Indian para- I tried to join but no one liked militaries shot and killed at least fifteen The sideI'm fighting for unarmed protestersmarching toward the Line of Control; the shooting Solet's drink to ruhenit's otter touched offyet more street protests.In And let'sdrink to ushenaDe meet the satellite-television age, the suffering I'll bestanding on tbis corner of Kashmiri civfians hasnotbeenbroad- Wberethere used to bea street cast as often or as vividly as that of Pal- estiniansor Lebanese,but on AlJazeera You left me with the dishes and on Web sitesfrom Britain to Ban- And a babyin the bath gladeshthe war has been a point And you're tight with the militias of grievance. The Indian government You wear their camouflage has long resistedscrutiny of its human- rights record in Kashmir and deflects I guessthat makesus equal blame for the violence onto Pakistan's But I want to marchwith you support for jihadi groups. Special laws An extrain the sequel shield Indian security forces from ac- To the old red-white-and-b1ue countability for deaths in custody, de- spite ample evidence that there have Solet's drink to zphenit's orter been manyhundreds ofsuch cases.Even Indias urban liberal 6lite remains in de- '!;,',:i;#,i':,71';;;#"' nial about its government's record oftor- Wherethere usedto be a street ture and extrajudicial killing, Meenakshi Ganguly, a seniorresearcher for Human Rights Watch, said. "In the history since so many Kashmiris had chosento tention centers.Yet its over-all progres books, Kashmir is going to be wherejus- participate. India has spent large sums has only clarified for Indian strategist tice completely failed the promises ofln- onjobsandinfrastructureprojects,grad- the ongoing failure to stop the I.S.l dian democrary," she said. ually convincing many war-weary civil- from infiltrating jihadi guerrillas acros India's campaignto defeatthe jihadis ians and politicians that they can regard the Line of Control. has, in some ways, become subtler and regional electionsnot asa sourceof sov- One morning after my visit to Cha more elfective. In 2002, the govemment ereign legitimacy for India but as a hal, I drove up a pine-tree-lined hil held an election in Kashmir, judged 1o- meansto control their local affairs.'\Me above Srinagars Dal Lake, past a man cally asfair, which hred fence-sitting sep- are not in a position to addresspeople's icured golf course, to Raj Bhavan, aratist Kashmiri politicians into greater concerns about water, electricity, and whitewashed colonial-era estate. I ha cocioerationwith New . Last win- jobs,"Farooq admitted. come to see N. N. Vohra, a white ter, when I visited, India was conduding Theback-channelnegotiationshave haired career civil servant who las a secondsuccessfi;l regional election, in also helped to quell mainstream Kash- summer was appointed the governor c which Kashmiris turned out in record miri separatism.At times secredyand at Jammu and Kashmir. Imperial historie numbers. One afternoon, on the eve of other iimes publicly, Musharraf and and biographies lined the bookshelve the final round of voting, I visited the Singh eachbegan discussions with Hur- in Vohra s office; an oil portrait of Mo gated home of Mrwaiz lJmer Farooq, riyat and other local groups about the handasK. Gandhi hung on the wall be one of Kashmir'sbest-known nonviolent terms of an eventual setdement, draw- side his desk' The Governor told m separatistleaders. He had been placed ing them in. "Musharrafwas someone that"whateverlslamabadmaysaytoth under , so we s-pokeby cell who waswilling to think out of the box," world, and particul atly to America phone as I sat outside his driveway. Farooq continued. "It is not an insolu- leadership," he did not feel that Paki Farooq s coalition, called the Hurri- ble situation." stan had fully dealt with the I.S.I. an yat,haddecided to boycott the election, As violencehas declined,the govern- its "vestedinterest in keeping this Kash a tactic that now looked like a mistake, ment has closed the worst of its de- mir front alive."

44 THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 dian and Pakistani militaries cociperate at the Wagah crossing.On mosi days, I criedfor you this morning rival honor guards march and drill on And I'll cry for you again adjoining paradegrounds; on Pakistan's But I'm not in chargeof sorrow side, grandstands have been erected so So please don't askme when that spectatorscan enjoy the show, which has grown into a kind of martial I know the burden'shear,y batde of the bands, in which each side you {s bearit through the night strivesto excelin the performance cate- Some peoplesay iCs empry g_oriesof goor.-rt.pping and glaring. But that doesntmean iCs light Only very tall soldiers need apply for duty at Wagah; each country seeksto Solet\ drink to u,thenit's or.ter conjure the illusion that its Army is a le- And /et'sdrink to when zpemeet gion ofgiants. I'll bestanding on thisconter After four cups of tea, severalsigna- Wterethere usedto bea street tures in clothbound ledgers, and some subtle talk ofgratuities, rwo poners car- It's going to be Septembernow ried my bags on their heads to a metal For manyyears to come gate. A protocol offtcer waited inside Every heart adjusting Pakistan; I had an appointment with To that strict Septemberdrum Nawaz Sharif, the former Pakistani Prime Minister, who lived nearby, on a I seethe Ghost of Culture family compound outsideLahore. With numbers on his wrist Squadsofpolice guard the Sharifes- Salute somenew conclusion tate, awalled expanseoforchards, wheat Which all ofus havemissed fields, and pensfilledwith deer and pea- cocks. In the main house, the former So/et's drink ta zuhenit's over Prime Minister greeted me in a grand And let's drink to zphenute meet receptionchamber flanked by mo life- I'l/ bestanding on tbiscorner size stuffed lions, and decorated with Wberethere usedto bea street pink sofas,matching pink Oriental car- pets, and gold-plated antelopefigr.rrines. -Leonard Cohen He is a rotund, clean-shavenman who, remarkably, retains the youthfirl look of a person unburdened by stress. Vohra said that when he first arrived pakistan Vohra had doubts about the In 1999,1essthan ayear after he au- asgovernor he received daily briefings ,,I military's capaciqrfor change. was thorized Pakistaris nudear test, Sharifini- from intelligence officers about interro very _ much hoping in the last"four years tiated a precursor to the back-channel gationreports,electronicintercepts, and that they at. ro* progressively -anJ seeing tall

THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 announced new alone, rarely carried a briefcase,and ofi tarv of State,put it in a memoir.In these ner." The two leaders between their for- had to scribblehis notes on hotel stat u.".r, M.rrharraf, "like so manY of formal negotiations were known as nery. Altogether, there were about t hit f.[o* officers . . . was a revanchist eiqn miniitries, which Privately, they dozen ofthese hotel sessionsbetwc on the issue of Kashmir." Musharraf the Composite Dialogue. talks on 2004 and early 2007, according to Pt apparently decided to break uP the re-started the back-channel ole familiarwith them. oiace talks. He authorized a reckless Kashmir. two Mushar- The envoysworked on a numbet incursion of Army personnel disguised During the next Years' of his sincerity' long-standing territorial disputes, as guerritlasinto a mountainousarea raf deliveredIndia proof into Indian-held cluding the problem of Siachen,a he of Kashmir known as Kargil. A small- Guerrilla infiltrations declined; Pakistani artillery ily militarized glacier where Indian z scalewar eruPted; at one Point, the territory salvos on Indian Pakistani soldiers skirmish at heig Clinton Administration believed that units stopped their used as cover for above twenfy thousand feet' batter Pakistan s fumy had taken stePsto mo- posts,which had been jihadis. Indian olficials con- each othels snowbound positions vr bilize its nuclear weaPons. Mushar- infiltrating by an artillery shells. But a Kashmir sett raf has said that he briefed Sharif on cluded that Musharraf--whether a consensus- mentwould be the grand Prize. the Kargil operation; Sharif denied iron hand or by building senior generals to To outsiders,it haslong seemed this. "I think the back channelwas mak- had persuadedhis benefits ofpeace vious that the Line of Control shoulc ing good progress,"he told me. "But u...pt the potential declaredthe international border .oo.t you see, it was sabotaged negotiations. "ft.a meetings he con- tween India and Pakistan-it's beer by Mr. Musharraf-a misadventure At the landmark Musharraf talked place for almost fortY Years,and e that was ill-advised, ill-executed,Poorly vened at Rawalpindi, settlement might country has built its own institutions olanned." A few months afterward, about how a Peace that could hind it. Musharraf, however, mad Sharif tried to fire the General; Mush- oroduce economic benefits clear from the start that this woulc and threw Sharif in itrenqthen Pakistan-and its military' araf setzedpower f Army had a fifteen-Year develoP- unacceptable;India was equallY iail.After Prisident Clinton intervened, The "Sharif that the that it would never renegotiate its I was releasedinto exile in Saudi ment plan; the generalsknew to pay for with- ders or the Line of Control. The ' Arabia. plan would be difficult "I very happylo out of this impasse,Singh has said, lndia's leadersinitially mistrusted out rapid growth. was there was on the to "make borders irrelevant," by all' Musharraf becausehe was the author of see how much focus Army's officers"' ing for the free movement ofPeoPle K*gl, but graduaLly,as Mansingh, then economy among the former Foreign soods within an autonomous Kash Indids Ambassadorto the United States, Khurshid Kasuri, the ies-ton. For Pakistan, this formula m recalled, 'lMe found he was a man we Minister, recalled' a retired major work if it included provisions for could talk to." After 2002' Indias econ- Mahmud Durrani, Musharraf s Am- protection-and potential enrichm omy began to grow more quicklY and general who was then said that this ihrough free trade-of the PeoPl steadilythan at any time sinceindepen- bassadorin Washington' a broader change Kashmir, in whose name Pakistan dence;the ranks of its middle-classcon- new attitude reflected were asking' carried on the conflict. sumers swelled; and it became possible in outlook. Commanders supPort The most recentversion of the r for Indian strategists to visualize their he recalled,"Can my economy suPPortme? paper, drafted \n earlY 2007,laid countly rising to become a great power me? Can my foreign PolicY think of us?" severalprinciples for a setdement, by the mid-twenty-first century. Orrl)l n What doesthe world "the that the world cording to peoPle who have seen catastrophic war with Pakistan---rcr Pa- There was feeling have to change draft or have participated in the dis kistads collapseinto chaos-would stand is changing and that we ," was then Ka- sionsabout it. Kashmiris would be g in the way of India's greatness.'\Mewere KhalidMahmood, who recalled."It was not special rights to move and trade fi convincedthese two countriesmust learn suris chief of staff, who felt that on both sidesof the Line of Con to live in accord-must,"' easy.There were people a tl-turn." Each of the former PrincelYstate's who was then India's foreign minister, the President has made tinct regionswould receivea measu said. Musharraf autonomy-details would be negotJ In time, Musharrafs thinking about [1o refine the non-paper, on his college later. Providing that violence decl India and Kashmir seemedto change, I relied intuitively a tivil servant who each side would graduallY withdra too. Late in 2003, splinter cells from friend Tanq Aziz, region. At some to as- had made his careerin Pakistaris federal troops from the P Jaish-e-Mohammed twice tried bridge enthusiast the Line of Control might be ackn sassinatehim. "This is what turns him tax department' a of his colleagues edgedbyboth governmentsas an ir decisively,", then Paki- who seemsto some and adren- national border. It is not clear how hiqh commissionerin London, re- to live precariouslyon tobacco stan's border th' ahne.And s Indian counterparts-J. N' a commitment on a final called. Just weeks afterward, Musharraf adviser, gotiatorswere preParedto make, or met Vajpayee in Islamabad-andagreed Dixit, Singlis national-security Lambah-worked long it would all take; one Persor to an unprecedentedjoint statement:the followed by Satinder Indians typically volved suggesteda time line of abor Pakistani President would "not permit more formally. The to the secrethotel to fifteen years. any territory under Pakistan'scontrol to brousht note-takers t easAztz ttavelled One of the most difficult issue be used to support terrorism in any man- sessionsoverseas, whe

46 THENEVYORKER,MARCH 2'2OO9 volved a plan to establish ajoint body, ,,As now?"' the senior official recalled. zaffarabad,the pakistan-held made capital of up of local Kashmiri leaders,In- long asMusharrafwas the chief had the Kashmir; the Pakistan Army has dians,and Pakistanis, to oversee a issues uniform, I think he had a valid answer. hea',ypresence that in this ciry, and it is un- affectedpopulations on both sides He said,Yes, the chief is doing this.," likeJy that such an event could have of the Line of Control, such as water taken place rights. without the LS.L's sanc- Pakistan sought something close s the peaceralks I stalledand Mu- tion. The rally seemeddesigned to send to shared governance, with the kash- ,[ Ishamafls powerwaned durinq the a messageacross miris the Line of Control: taking a leading role; India, fear- first half of2008, the I.S.I., or ,..iion, Musharraf is gone, but the Kashmir ing a lossof sovereignry,wanted much of it, appeared to be reenlisting jihadi war is alive. lesspower-sharing. The envoyswres- groups. OnJuly 7th, a suicide bomber 'lMe askedthem specifically,,Howis tled intensively over what language to rammed a car loaded with explosives thls going use .all on ifyou saythe Army's on to describe the scope ofthis new into the gatesof India's ..ioint E,mbassyin board?"' the senior Indian official re- body; rhe last draft rermed it a Kabul, kiling fifry-four people, tnciud- called. "They 'Give mechanism." kept saying, us a ing the Indian defense atiach6. The chance.We needi-e.-Y.i yes,the Ar- Manmohan Singh's government " ' - United Statesintercepted communi- my's on board.''t feared that rtt...rro, P"kis'tani regimes cations between active I.S.I. Derson- In October, Durrani, who was then would repudiate any Kashmir bargaln nel and the Taliban-aligned network Pakistan's national-security adviser. forged byMusharraf, who had, uft.iall, ofJalaluddin Haqqani, which is be- travelled to New Delhi and met with come to power in a coup. The Indians lieved by U.S. military and intelligence members of India's National Secu- yer_enot sure that a provisional peace officials ro have carrild out the kabul rity Advisory deal Board. offi- could be protected "from the men Fmbassyattack. Haqqani has a long cers presented "some very nice colored of violence-on both sides,"the senior history of collaboration and contact charts,"as Durrani pur it;documentinq Indian official who was involved recalled. with the I.S.I.; he was also a paid client recent increases And paki- in ceasefireviolationi they wondered whether the of the Central lntelligence Agency andjihadi infiltrations alonq the Line of stanArmy had really embracedthe non- during the late nineteen-eighties. On Conrrol. Durrani paper found thiharts.,a bit framework or mereh saw the tallcs September4th, tessthan three weeks one-sided,"but when he returned to Is- as a ploy to buy time and win favor after Musharraf's resignation as pa- lamabad he in sought explanations about Washingon whjle continuing to sup- kistan's President, KaJhmiri militant the violations from Pakistan Amy com- port the jihadis. "I remember askins groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, manders.In Taiq January,Durrani was fired Azn,'Is the Army on board?Righ1 appeared at alarge open rally in Mu- after making public statements that

ffiftffi&ktTw% ffieffiwwtuKffi#$*$TY' tor, Mohammed Abbas, who is al known as Abu Ehsaan, greeted n Abbas, who is thi4y-five years old, l ,,1".j'!#*-"* a substantialbelly and a four-inch bla beard. He showed me inside, to a ci -.-ffi peted room, where we sat cross-legg :'11 on the floor, propped against cushior The United StateslistedJamaat-u Dawa-the name roughly translates the Society of the Call to -ar foreign terrorist organization in 20( on the ground that it was an alias I Lashkar. After the Mumbai attack, t United Nations Security Council fi lowed suit, with tacit support from I kistaris civilian government. Abbas tr me that thesejudgments were mistakt and that Jamaat-ud-Dawa "is solell rehef organization." He explained that young men oft joined the organrzairon as relief wot ers,and were sent out for ayeat or m( "The things that shouldbother m.e /en'7-5/1svld I be uorcied?" to areasthat had been struck by eart ouakesor other disasters.These volu teers might also reside at Muridl where they can receive lodging, foc and pocket money, he said. If they la were seenin Pakistan as too accommo- that Pakistan might be willing to follow marry or move into administration, th dating oflndia. a oolicv of "no first usd' of its nuclear might qualify for a modest salar The apparent revival of the I.S.I.'s *iupo.r, a remarkable departure from Among the group's projects, he sa covert operations influenced the Singh past Pakistan Army doctrine. Privately, '\MeVe set up an emergencycell for r government's assessmentof who was in discussionswith Indian officials, cidents on the G.T. Roadlthe prin, lik lr, t.roo.tsible for the Mumbai at- Zardar\ affirmed his interest in picking pal highway that traversesPakista tack. "It appearsthere hasbeen a change up the back-channelnegotiations. Some "Peoole call us and we send the amb in poliry," V. P. Malik, a former Indian Indian officials and analystsinterpreted lance to the scene.We alsowork in cr Chief ofArmy Staff, who now headsan Mumbai as a kind ofwarning from the laborationwith the local district admi influential securify-studies institute in I.S.I. to Zardan-"Zardaris Kargil," as istration. They're happywith our wor New Delhi, said. "They really have not someIndians put it, meaningthat itwas They think we're honest-they knc taken action against these outfits, their a deliberateeffort by the PakistanArmy that if we pick up victims they will p leadersand their infrastructure." to disrupt ZardarT'speace overtures. back all of theirvaluables when tfeya Pakistan's new civilian President, SeveralPakistani and American officials releasedfrom the hospital." Asif Zardarr, had entered into his ovm told me that Zardaiis now deeplywor- As we spoke, severalfi.rll-bearded rn struggle with those in the Pakistani se- ried about his personalsecuriry. spread a plastic mat atop the caqpetr curity serviceswho favor the jihadis and and laid out a meal ofchicken biryani a covert war against lndia. Zardarl's Pa- regional headquartersof naan. Abbas excusedhimself briefly '-l-th. Jamaat' kistan PeoplesParty has fought the Army I ud-Dawa-the educationaland answer his cell phonb; its ring tone \4 for oower sincethe latenineteen-seven- charitable or ganization that, depending the sound of a frog croaking. tiesl neither institution fully trusts the on howyou seeit, is either the parent of I askedAbbas if his organizatrcnh other, although they have sometimes or a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba-lies on come under pressurefrom the goven collaborated.(Some P.P.P. officials be- a flat stretch of agricultural land west of ment of Pakistan since the Mumbail lieve that the I.S.I. may have been in- Lahore, outside a village called Mu- tack. 'The police came the night theo volved in Benazir Bhutto's murder.) ridke. Barbed-wire fences surround a ganizaionwas banned, but the schot Last May, Zatdari tried to assertcivilian campus of about seventy-five acres, and campuswere alreadyclosed becar conffol over the I.S.I. byplacing it under which contains an O\rnpic-size swim- ofvacations," he said. "It is not clearl the authority of the Interior Ministry; ming pool, horse stables,offices, several whether the schoolswill be able to r the Army rejectedthis order,andZard- schools,dormitories, and a large white- open. The hospital is functional, I ari backed down. In November, speak- washed mosque. When I visited, a people are afraid. The number ofpatier ing extemporaneouslybyvideoat a con- smokyhaze had shroudedthe facilityin has declined becausepeople are afil ferencein New Delhi, Zardari declared a vellowish murk. The chief administra- India may hit this Muridke complex.

4B THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 T

"No doubt we ate afrid," he contin- all of a sudden,"Abbas said unhappily. war in Afghanistan, which Obama has ued."Hundreds ofworkers havebeenar- Had my presencebeen detected, and identified as one of his highest foreign- rested and shifted to unknown places. the police been dispatchedto make a poliry priorities. Stability in Afghanistan Top leadershave been pJaced undei house show of their vigilance, or was this a will be difficult to achieveunless Paki- arrest.. . . If they come and they want to genuine inspection?We shook hands stan cociperatesmore wholeheartedlyin arrest me, I am ready. But what is the and said our farewellsbeside the oolice American-led efforts to oacifv the Tali- chargesheet? The U.S. should teli-the vehicle.On its side,stencilled ;n trn- ban. The I.S.I. built up the Taliban asa U.N. should tell-what Jamaat-ud-Dawa glish in white block lerters, were the national Afghan movement during the hasdone." words "Crime Forensic Laboratory." nineteen-nineties, partly as a means to President Zardari announced that he A few minutes later, on the G.T. prevent India from gaining influence in would ban Jamaat, as required by the Road, headedback to Lahore, I passed Afghanistan. Pakistan'sgenerals are un- U.N. resolution. The Pakistani govern- some lJrdu-language graffiti painted likelyto dismande the Taliban leadership ment plans to closeJamaat'sschools and prominently in white on a brick wall. ifthey continue to regardjihadi groupsas to place provincial administratorsat "fJnder the banner of preaching and a necessaryinstrument in an existential eachofthe charity's facilities to oversee jihad," the scrawl declared, "Lashkar's struggle with India. "As far as the Paki- finances and personnel. However, Pa- caravanwill roll on." stanArmy is concerned,they think India kistan has a long record of implement- ir t{o.rg to weaken Pakistan," Muham- ing such crackdowns only partially, and T astDecember, during an appearance mad Nasir Athtar, a retired three-star of releasingjihadi leadersafter relatively Lon "Meet the Press,"Barack Obama general, said. 'They also think America short periods-an approachto counter- remarked, 'lMe carit continue to look at is working with India to denuclearize terrorism that is referred to in India as Afghanistan in isolation. We have to see Pakistan."This mind-set, he added, "is "catch and release."Pakistan banned it as part ofa regional problem that in- very dangerous for the future." Lashkar in 2002, for example, but its cludes Pakistan, includes India, indudes The Mumbai attack took olace dur- leader, Saeed,continued to preach Kashmir, includes lran." The President ing the transirion berweenthe Bush openly. Indian officials point out that has appointed the veteran diplomat and C)bama Administrations, and the Jamaat'sWeb site continued to operate Richard Holbrooke asa specialrepresen- United Statesconcentrated its diDlo- long after Pakistan had declaredthe lat- tative for Pakistan andAfghanistan. The matic effbrts on preventingany armed est ban, and they claim that Lashkar public description of Holbrooke's re- conflict between India and Pakistan. andJ atnaathav e now reorganized them- sponsibiJities has been carefi.rllyworded There were severaldose calls. Less than selvesunder various new names. to avoid expJicitmention ofKashmir, be- seventy-two hours after the attack began, Abbas took me on a walk around the causeIndia's government has long re- someonepretending to be In&a's foreign campus.We chatted with a few young jected outsidemediation ofthat conflict, minister telephoned Zardari and threat- men who said that they were students but, given his mission, Holbrooke will enedwar; onlywhen former Secretaryof at Jamaat'suniversity. Lashkar edu- inevitablybe drawn into quiet talls about State Condole ezzaRice intervened &d it catesthousands annually in a Wahhabi- the achievementsand frustrations ofthe become apparent that the call was a influenced strain oflslam that, in addi- back channel. hoax. The callerhas not been identified; tion to its political doctrine oftransna- The Indo-Pakistani eouation is criti- like the Mumbai strike itse[ the phony tionaljihad, emphasizesaustere personal cal, in any event, to the outcome of the threat mayhave been a deliberateprovo- devotion. (Pakistan'straditional reli- giousculture has been influenced by the 1 venerationofearthly Sufi saints.)Evan- ) gehzingstudentsform the core oflash- kar'smembership and its strength-1ike {t"'.*-,""":- Hezbollah, the young men in Jamaat dormitories and "humanitarian" camos canoffer socialservices and a vision of ethicalgovernance in a country that en- joys a paucity of both. Down a dirt road shadedby eucalyp- l* tus trees,we found Jamaat'shospital, where half a dozen villagers squatted on thepavement, waiting for appointments. 'l'l'i'ri. " :*k;;ry'e Insidewe toured a ggrecological clinic ,g anda dentist's office-the fee schedule !{'4 *w postedon the wall indicated that a firll *lq< dentalexam would cost about fifty cents. :'ry- A blue police truck had parked in Sh^n^hor-\ frontofthe headquartersbuilding by thetime we returned. "This happened "It'sall yours." r they crackeddown too hard cation by jihadialigned conspirators. gether-is now," BrajeshMishra, a for- bacldasti'if Grenier said. The danger of oPen war between mer Indian national-security adviser, on the Kashmir groups, fall, General David Petraeus,t In&a and Pakistanhas not passed.As re- told me. "I have no doubt in mY mind Last in counter-insurgencydoc cently asDecember 26th, Pakistani intel- that unlessthe Pakistan Army is forced specialist to head the Uniter ligence officials concluded that Indian to do something about the jihadis itwill trine, was promoted Command, which over walplanes were being positioned for an lead to a mllitary confrontatiori' with StatesCentral military operarionsan( ur raid. The countrys nation?l-security India, and perhapsvery soon' he said. seesAmerican policies in the Middie East, and in Ai adviserat the time, Durrani, telephoned SinceNovember, India hasemPloYed and Pakistan. (India fallr American officials in alarm. The next a diplomatic and media camPaign to shanistan Pacific Command' therebr day, Stephen Hadley' then the national- induce the international community- inder the efi-ortsto coordinate U.S security adviser,tracked down Durrani the United States,in particular-to put complicating liaisonsin the region.) Petraeu on his cell phone while he was shopping greaterpressure on the PakistanArmy to mjlitary a group ofabout two hun in an Islamabad supermarket and told break its ties with jihadi groups' India and has organized academic, and mili him that there would be no raid. the United Stateshave grown closerin re- dred government, to rethinku.S. strategyir During the Bush Administration, centvears.but Indian officialsstili seethe tary specialists Their studyha American and British officials moni- U.S. astar too willtng to acceptexcuses his areaofresponsibility. the importance of changinl tored the secret negotiations. British from Pakistans generals.'The Pakistanis highlighted oudook ofPakistani genet officialscontributed a few ideasbased on have been able to play the Americans," the strategic India, according to militar their experiencewith the Good Friday C. Uday Bhaskar,a retired Indian Nary als toward in the review. AJreadl agreementin Northern Ireland, but nei- commodore, said. "I wouldnt abandon officers inrrolved started to expound his "bi1 ther they nor the Americans becamedi- them-that would only make the prob- Petraeus has ' S. military strategy towali rectly involved. Ultimately' any peace lem worse. . . . The Pakistan fumy wili idea about U. That is the only Pakistan: that the Pakistan Army mus -settlementbetween India and Pakistan have to self-correct. that it facesno existentil would have to suPPort in both way-short of total war." be convinced ^ttr^ct India but doesface a revolu countries'padiaments;if itwere seenas In the faceof Indian comPlaints, threat from from jihadis within it a oroduct bf American or British med- American officialshave sometimes taken tionary threat so should shift its empha dling, its prospectswould be dim. "One a protectiveposture toward the I'S.I' and borders-and and equipping itsel of the best piecesof advicewe gave the the Pakistan fu-y. Pakistan'sgenerals sis from planning India to eliminating home StateDepartmentwhen I wasin Delhi- have become adept at Pursuing both forwarwith jihadis. and I remember writing about four ca- oeace talks and covert war simultane- grown Mike Mullen became chair bles on this subject-was to keep hands ously, and at telling American interloc- Admiral theJoint Chiefs of Staffin Oc off" AshleyTellis, a former political ad- utors what theywish to hear.After Sep- man of and since then he has hd viser in the U.S. Embassyin New Delhi, tember 11th, in particular, the Bush tober,2007, with the Pakistan Ann recalled. "We stayed away, and unless Administration didlitde to challengethe eight meetings Ashfaq Kayani, aswel1r the Obama-ites chooseto changethis I dualities in Pakistan'spoiicies. Bush's chief General four meetings with Gener doubt we will intervene. They've man- counter-terrorism advisersdecided that three or Pasha, who was appointed I aged quite well without us-they've Kashmir-focussedjihadi groups posed Ahmad lead the I.S.I. last autumt endedup in a placewe'd like to seethem no direct threat to the U.S. The Admin- Kayani to in the back-chann end up." Direct negotiations,without istration deliveredclose to ten billion Kayani participated serving asMusharraf 's I.S, mediators, had forced the two sides to dollars'worth of military aid to Pakistan, talls while role, he endorsedthe prir confront the hard issues,the senior In- ostensibly to fight A1 QLeda, without chief; in that the non-paper. Both Pakista dian official told me. "tlltimately, we real oversight and without requiring that ciples in havepromised a newstt need to screwup our courageand do the the I.S.I. break with regional Islamist commanders In Pasha to deal, and anybody elsegetting involved groups."On Al Qeda, therewas noth- tegic direction. January, "We are distancing ou actually gives both of us a cmtch," the ing we asked them to do that theY Der Spiegel, conflict with India, bot oltcial said. '!Ve grandstand." wouldrit do," Bob Grenier, who was the selvesfrom in Islamabad dur- now and in general."He added, 'Itr On the fundamental Problem of the C.I.A.'s station chief ln Pakistan, but not con Pakistan Army's suPport for jihadi ine 2001 and2002, recalled.As for may be crazy of our minds. We knowfr groups,however, only the United States grorrpt such as Lashkar, "There was a oletelv out is our enemy, not Indir has the leverage,through its military- tremendous amount of ambivalence." well tirat terror me that he has heard tl and economic-assistancepackages, to I.S.I. leadersseemed "concerned about Mullen told Kayan\ and Pasha in insist upon changes.Unless the Paki- same from Privat in oudook "has been trar stan Army makesa true break with its Their shift said. The Pal jihadi clients-and comes ro regard formational," Mullen is "certainly committed," al thesegroups asa greaterthreat than In- stanArmy said, "It's going to takt dia-not even the most creativediplo- yet, Mullen it's an urgent, urgent sin mats in the region are likely to succeed. while, and at stake." "The time to act-to control the Paki- tion, where lives are Administration hasir stan Army and get the civilians to- The Obama

50 THE NEV YORKER,MARCH 2,2OO9 tiated a sixty-day review ofpoliry toward Pakistan and Afghanistan; as it com- pletesthat study the Administration will haveto decide how much oatience with the Pakistan Army it can afford. The most dimcult challenge will be finding the right blend of encouragement and pressureto induce the Pakistan Army and the I.S.I. to condude that an over- arching and long-lasting regional peace is in their interest. Not all American oficials possesseven Mulleris qualified optimism. "History shows that the Pa- kistanis will slow-roll us to death," a seniorU.S. intelligence official told me, referring to Pakistaris long record oftol- erancefor jihadi groups. "The history is so compelling-that the Pakistanis play around and nothing ever changes."

and Singh may not find it /adari Z-leasy to return to the non-paper ne- gotiatio.nson Kashmir any time soon, eveniftheywish to. In Pakistan,civfian political leaders might well reject the earlier framework simply because the discreditedMusharraf was behind it. Pakistanwould stand bythe non-paper, like the time he stepped onto an ailport Even more daunting, the violent contest or insist on renegotiating. tamac in Kazakhstan, when the tem- for power and legitimary between Tali- Perve'zMusharraf anived in the United peraturewas minus thirry-six degrees.I banmilitants and Pakistan'sgovernment Statesin January for a speakingtour. It askedhim about the almost-deal he had is in manywap a struggle over Pakistan's was not a particularly high-profile itiner- made on Kashmir in2007.I saidthat I national identi ty----and,particularly, over aV; he spoke first to the World Affairs had been surprised to discover how whether the presentgovernment is righ- Council ofWestem Michigan, and later closehis negotiators had been to draw- teouslyIslamic enough. In the midst of at Stanford University and the World ing to an end one ofthe great territorial sucha contest,any agreementthat made Affairs Council of Philadelphia. On his conflicts ofthe age. concessionsto India would be harder last evening in the country, he attended a "Ive alwal's believed in peacebetween public. than ever to sell to the Pakistani receptionhosted by the In- India and Pakistan," he replied. "But it "The military is completely on board at stitute, a public-policy group with head- required boldnesson boih sides.. . . the top levels-with a paradigm shift, to quartersin an Edwardian rowhouse near What I find lacking sometimes is this seeIndia as an opporftrnity, to change Dupont Circle, in Washington,D.C. boldness-particularly on the Indian domestic attitudes," a senior Pakistani Two men with crewcuts and earoieces side." He then reviewed a long negotiat- officialtold me. However. he continued. stood outside the door; a private security ing sessionhe had had, many yearsbe- 'The public mood is out of synch."The guard with a metal detector checked the fore, with former Indian Prime Minister mood within sectionsof the Army and guests.Several dozen people sipped red Vajpayee,inwhich the pairhad tried and theI.S.I. may be out of slmchwith peace wine in a high-ceilinged room: former failed to agreeon a particularjoint state- negotiations as well; in early February, American Ambassadorsto Pakistan,lob- ment. As he recounted the incident, the the Kashmiri jihadi group Hezb-ul- byists, and representativesof some of the pitch ofMusharraf's voice rose slighdp Mujahideenhosted a pubJ-icconference defensecontractors who did big business he seemedto be reliving his frustration. inMuzaffarabad, which Lashkar sup- in the Musharraf era, such as Lockheed He returned to the subject of the poners attended. Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grum- 2007 taJks."I wasn'tjust giving conces- In India, Manmohan Singh seems man. The guestofhonor tumed up about sions-I was taking from India aswell," determinedto seekredlection oi o.u..- five minutes late, in a black S.U.V. with he said, a touch defensively. " Then he and-stabiliryplatform. Last year,tefore fl ashing emergenry lights. calmed. He fixed his gaze and added,"It Mumbai, Singh took stepsto reconnect Musharraf looked wel| in a tailored would have benefitted both India and the back channel with Tariq Atrz, ac- dark suit and red tie. He circulated Pakistan."o cording to people famfiar with the di- among the crowd and engagedin small plomary.Singh was concerned,in par- talk about the weather, inflected with ticular,about whether Zardaiwould be nostalgia from his time in office-yes, NEWYORKER.COM willingto continuethe talks andwhether Michigan was very cold, but nothing ThinkTank, Steve Coll's blos.