ALBION PARK RAIL BYPASS TRAFFIC STUDY
FOR
ROADS AND MARITIME SOUTHERN REGION
Gold Coast Brisbane Sydney Suite 26, 58 Riverwalk Avenue Level 2, 428 Upper Edward Street Studio 203, 3 Gladstone Street Robina QLD 4226 Spring Hill QLD 4000 Newtown NSW 2042 P: (07) 5562 5377 P: (07) 3831 4442 P: (02) 9557 6202 W: www.bitziosconsulting.com.au E: [email protected] Project No: P1251 Version No: 002 Issue date: 30 October 2013 Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study
DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Issue History
Report File Name Prepared by Reviewed by Issued by Date Issued to P1251.001R Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 30.09.13 P.Hawkins, RMS Wollongong P1251.002R Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 30.10.13 P.Hawkins, RMS Wollongong
Bitzios Consulting makes no representation, undertakes no duty and accepts no responsibility to any third party who may use or rely upon this document or its information and data.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the mid 1990’s Roads and Maritime Services undertook a route selection study to identify the most suitable long term route for the Princes Highway between Yallah and Oak Flats, known as the Albion Park Rail Bypass. In 1996 the preferred route was announced and adopted into the Shellharbour and Wollongong Council Local Environmental Plans (LEP corridor). The Roads and Maritime Services (Roads and Maritime) is seeking to review the corridor set aside for the Albion Park Rail Bypass and asses whether it is still a suitable long term route. The proposed bypass is likely to include a four lane divided highway (two lanes in each direction) with median separation between Yallah and Oak Flats. The bypass announced in the mid 1990s included new interchanges at Tongarra Road, Croome Road and modifications to the existing Oak Flats Interchange. The project is one of a series of upgrades to sections of the Princes Highway between waterfall and Nowra This would improve road safety and traffic efficiency, including for freight, on the NSW south coast. Bitzios Consulting have been requested by ROADS AND MARITIME to review strategic modelling completed by TDG (formerly Gabites Porter) and prepare a traffic modelling report for this project.
Existing traffic and transport environment Between 1990 and 2013, the annual average daily traffic (AADT) on the Princes Highway north of the Illawarra Highway has increased by 1.9% per annum increasing from 44,635 vehicles per day (vpd) to 61,606vpd. The Princes Highway, Tongarra Road, Lake Entrance Road and Terry Street all exist on strategic bus corridors. These corridors contain higher frequency bus services providing connections for major regional centres. The South Coast Rail line runs immediately adjacent to the Princes Highway, with the rail station at Albion Park Rail directly accessed from the main road. The adjacent and surrounding land uses are ready for re-development, with approximately 30,000 lots available for release over the next 20 years. A summary of the issues relating to the existing traffic and transport environment are: . there is a large amount of development proposed in the immediate surrounding area; . interchange spacing is very short compared to other adjacent sections of the Princes Motorway, and this will need to be rectified at the transition between motorway to highway is replaced with the proposed bypass; . interchange ramp acceleration lanes and deceleration lanes within the study area are designed to minimum standards in length; . the Illawarra Highway frequently is overtopped by flood waters, resulting in substantial delays; . traffic congestion is beginning to affect the travel time reliability for key bus services in the precinct;
Existing road network performance The crash record within the study section compared to adjacent sections of the Princes Highway and other major highways in NSW is extremely poor. Between April 2008 and March 2013, 367 crashes were reported within the study area. Of the 367 crashes, two were fatal crashes. There were 166 injury crashes that resulted in 220 injuries and 183 non-injury crashes. The results of the travel time analysis indicates that the Princes Highway between Yallah and Oak Flats currently has an average travel time of around 8 - 10 minutes. The Princes Highway within the study section currently operates with a midblock level of service (LOS) D to F during typical AM peak and PM peak periods. During periods of flood or school holidays the LOS
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deteriorates rapidly with the onset of congestion and substantial queues occurring well before the peak period begins.
Future conditions without the project The Princes Highway is expected to operate at LOS E/F for most parts of the day in the future year should existing road infrastructure provision remain unchanged. Strategic modelling suggests that other roads such as Tongarra Road, East-West Link and Station Road will absorb a large portion of the overflowing traffic also reaching LOS E/F. The Illawarra Highway and Princes Highway roundabout lacks capacity and initiates lengthy delays in peak periods within the study section. Improvements to the Illawarra Highway and Princes Highway roundabout will necessitate improvements to other adjacent road sections due to the traffic congestion ‘bottleneck’ being relocated further downstream to other existing signalised intersections. If the current road network remains unchanged travel times through the study section will increase substantially from the current 8-10 minutes to 40-45 minutes in the northbound direction and 20-25 minutes in the southbound direction. The forecast growth in traffic on the existing road network within study section is likely to result in a considerable increase in the total number of crashes occurring which will have a financial and social impact on the local community.
Future Year Traffic Modelling Strategic traffic modelling outputs show that the LOS is expected to improve from LOS E/F to LOS C/D along the Princes Highway with the proposed bypass. In additional, travel times for through traffic are expected to improve from 20-40minutes in the peak period down to 7-9 minutes, which is similar to current travel times experienced along the corridor. The proposed bypass offers a number of additional traffic network benefits including: . the ability to separate longer distance and local trips; . reduction in overall travel times for longer distance business and freight trips; . improvement in accessibility for local businesses; . improvement in travel time reliability for public transport, freight, businesses and commuters; . improvement to the amenity for the Albion Park Rail and Albion Park town centres; . improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during wet weather (flooding); . improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during holiday periods increasing the attractiveness for tourists; and . most importantly, provides a longer term plan for the management of the large quantum of forthcoming development. The reduction of traffic volumes along the Princes Highway will result in an overall improvement of safety within the area. The crash rate currently experienced on the Princes Highway is substantially higher than what would be realised on a motorway standard road (such as the proposed bypass). The current crash rate on sections of the Princes Highway is 77 crashes per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. Based on the adjacent Princes Highway / Princes Motorway sections the proposed bypass is expected to attract only 12.5 crashes per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. This offers a 6 times level of safety improvement with the proposed bypass in place. The introduction of the bypass also enables a greater emphasis to be placed on providing safe solutions along the Princes Highway without needing to compromise through traffic capacity needs. The proposed bypass also provides an opportunity to include improved separation between local town centre and pedestrian / cycle based trips and the faster paced, longer distant, heavy vehicle and business based trips.
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The reduction of traffic along the Princes Highway, Tongarra Road and Station Road introduces opportunities to improve bus services between future development areas and key transport nodes. Greater flexibility can also be given in locating bus stops in the centre of towns with the view of improving the local town centre amenity without concerns of compromising the ‘traffic throughput’ capacity of the corridor. It should be noted that the Princes Highway, Tongarra Road, Lake Entrance Road and Terry Street all reside on a strategic bus corridor. The creation of the proposed bypass will enable the necessary bus priority infrastructure to support the strategic bus corridor. As congestion increases along the corridor, the level of travel time reliability will worsen, resulting in bus services becoming less attractive. The reduction of traffic along the Princes Highway, through the implementation of the proposed bypass, enables local authorities to consider amenity improvements to the Albion Park and Albion Park Rail town centres. These amenity improvements can focus more greatly on pedestrian and cycle access, building built form and improving the relationship between the adjacent land use, the road and the local residential communities. Improvements to access for local businesses may also be reconsidered, with access restrictions previously placed to maximise traffic throughput along the Princes Highway corridor possibly no longer considered as necessary with the proposed bypass in place.
Value for Money The economic assessment for the scenarios tested for the proposed bypass project returns a BCR range of 2.24 to 2.76 and a NPV range of $755 million to $987 million (using discount rate of 7% in 2013 dollars). The project has a capital expenditure of approximately $600 million. The assessment has identified significant road user benefits over the 30 year period from 2020-2050 with travel time savings ranging between $1.37 billion to $1.56 billion (2013 dollars) and crash cost benefits of $26.3 million to $48.6 million (2013 dollars). The benefits are somewhat reduced by the high capital costs, ongoing additional maintenance costs, as well as the forecast increase in vehicle operating costs due to the additional distance travelled on the proposed bypass corridor. Strategic modelling of the project highlighted that the tests were very sensitive to distance. An alternative shorter route was considered, with adjustments to the alignment made in the vicinity of the Croom Regional Sporting Complex. The traffic modelling and economic analysis showed a further 10% improvement in return on investment.
Recommendation The project represents excellent value for money with further refinements possible to the project as the design progresses to reduce costs and increase benefits. The project also offers substantial non-tangible benefits not quantified in this assessment as discussed within this report. It is strongly recommended that the project be further developed with additional design investigations with the view of considered both the current reserved road corridor in the LEP as well as the suggested shorter alternative. The next stage of design development should consider road hierarchy, interchange spacing, bypass access requirements, adjacent land use access requirements and local town centre access needs.
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CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... II GLOSSARY OF TERMS ...... IX 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1
1.1 BACKGROUND 1 1.2 STUDY PURPOSE 4 1.3 STUDY AREA 6 1.4 STUDY ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 6 1.5 REPORT STRUCTURE 7 2. REVIEW OF PREVIOUS STUDY - YALLAH TO OAK FLATS ROUTE SELECTION STUDY (1995) ...... 8
2.1 BACKGROUND 8 2.2 OPTIONS CONSIDERED 8 3. EXISTING TRAFFIC ENVIRONMENT ...... 9
3.1 KEY ROADS 9 3.1.1 Overview 9 3.1.2 Princes Motorway 10 3.1.3 Princes Highway 11 3.2 KEY JUNCTIONS 12 3.2.1 Interchanges 12 3.2.2 Signalised Intersections 15 3.2.3 Unsignalised Intersections 15 3.3 SPEED LIMITS 15 3.4 ACTIVE TRANSPORT 16 3.4.1 Public Transport 16 3.4.2 Walking and Cycling 17 3.5 PARKING 18 3.6 ADJACENT LAND USES 19 3.6.1 Haywards Bay 19 3.6.2 Albion Park Rail Town Centre 20 3.6.3 Local industrial areas 21 3.6.4 Albion Park Town Centre 21 3.6.5 Flinders 22 3.6.6 Shellharbour Town Centre 22 3.6.7 Emerging Growth Areas 22 3.6.8 Summary of Adjacent Land Uses 26 4. EXISTING TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE ...... 27
4.1 ROAD SAFETY 27 4.2 EXISTING TRAFFIC VOLUMES 30 4.2.1 Permanent Count Station 30 4.2.2 Coverage Count Stations 30 4.2.3 AADT and Historical Trends 30 4.2.4 Existing Traffic Flows 30 4.2.5 Seasonal Variations 31 4.2.6 Daily Variations 32 4.2.7 Freight Transport 33 4.3 EXISTING TRAVEL TIMES 33 4.3.1 Travel Speeds 33 4.4 STRATEGIC TRANSPORT MODELLING 35 4.4.1 Approach 35 4.4.2 Model Performance 36 5. FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS WITHOUT THE PROJECT ...... 39
5.1 APPROACH 39 5.2 STRATEGIC TRANSPORT MODELLING – TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE 40 5.3 FIRST PRINCIPLES ASSESSMENT – TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE 43 5.3.1 Methodology 43 5.3.2 Key Junctions Assessed 43
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5.3.3 Operating Conditions Criteria 43 5.3.4 Princes Highway Southbound Merge with the Princes Motorway 45 5.3.5 Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway Roundabout 46 5.3.6 Creamery Road Intersection 48 5.3.7 Airport Road Intersection 49 5.3.8 Tongarra Road Intersection 51 5.3.9 Summary of Findings 52 5.4 OTHER IMPACTS 52 5.5 ROAD SAFETY 52 5.6 PUBLIC TRANSPORT 53 6. THE PROPOSED BYPASS PROJECT ...... 54
6.1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES 54 6.2 PROJECT DETAILS 54 6.3 PROPERTY ACCESS 56 7. FUTURE YEAR PERFORMANCE OF THE PROJECT ...... 57
7.1 MODEL LIMITATIONS 57 7.2 TRAFFIC SCENARIOS 57 7.3 TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE 58 7.3.1 Future Year Model – WOLSH Time and Distance Model Costs 58 7.3.2 Future Year Model – WOLSH Time Only Model Costs 63 7.4 MODELLING SUMMARY 66 7.5 OTHER BENEFITS 67 7.5.1 Overview 67 7.5.2 Road Safety 67 7.5.3 Public Transport 67 7.5.4 Place Making 68 8. VALUE FOR MONEY ...... 69
8.1 OVERVIEW 69 8.2 COSTS 69 8.3 BENEFITS 69 8.4 SHORTER ALIGNMENT OPTION 72 8.5 PROJECT DETAILS 72 8.5.1 Costs 72 8.5.2 Benefits 72 8.6 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SUMMARY 73 9. RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 74 10. REFERENCES ...... 75
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Tables Table 4.1: Crash Rate per Km Table 4.2: Total Cost to the Community Table 4.3: Coverage Count Site Locations Table 4.4: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) Volumes Table 4.5: Peak Hour Traffic Data Table 4.6: Heavy Vehicle Proportions Table 4.7: 2013 Northbound Travel Speeds Table 4.8: 2013 Southbound Travel Speeds Table 4.9: Route Travel Time Table 4.10: 2013 Southbound Easter PM Peak Travel Speeds Table 4.11: Level of Service Criteria – Mid-block Sections
Table 5.1: Operating Condition Criteria Table 5.2: Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Merge (Southbound) – Capacity Analysis Table 5.3: Princes Highway / Illawarra Highway Roundabout – Capacity Analysis Table 5.4: Princes Highway / Creamery Road Intersection – Capacity Analysis Table 5.5: Princes Highway / Airport Road Intersection – Capacity Analysis Table 5.6: Princes Highway / Tongarra Road Intersection – Capacity Analysis
Table 8.1: Benefit – Cost Assessment Results Table 8.2: Benefit – Cost Assessment Results (Shorter Alignment)
Figures Figure 1.1: Princes Highway Corridor Figure 1.2: Regional Connectivity Figure 1.3: Princes Highway Upgrades Figure 1.4: Preferred Alignment (Yallah to Oak Flats Route Selection Study – 1995) Figure 1.5: Proposed Bypass LEP Corridor Figure 1.6: Study Area Figure 1.7: Report Structure
Figure 3.1: Inconsistency of Road Environment Figure 3.2: Princes Motorway Figure 3.3: Princes Motorway Typical Section Figure 3.4: Princes Highway Figure 3.5: Princes Highway Typical Section Figure 3.6: Interchange Configurations Figure 3.7: Interchange Spacing between Entry Ramps and Exit Ramps Figure 3.8: Speed Zones Figure 3.9: Existing Bus Routes Figure 3.10: Albion Park Railway Station Figure 3.11: Existing Shared Path Strategy Figure 3.12: On-street Parking and Through Traffic Impacts Figure 3.13: Haywards Bay Figure 3.14: Albion Park Rail Town Centre Figure 3.15: Industrial Lands Figure 3.16: Terry Street / Tongarra Road intersection Figure 3.17: Impending Development Activity and Approximate Daily Traffic Impact Figure 3.18: Tallawarra Development Figure 3.19: Proposed Future Business Park
Figure 4.1: Crash Trend Figure 4.2: Rear-end Crash Summary Figure 4.3: 2006 Weekly Traffic Volume Profile Figure 4.4: 2007 Weekly Traffic Volume Profile Figure 4.5: 2013 Daily Traffic Profile – North of the Illawarra Highway Figure 4.6: 2011 Daily Traffic Profile – North of Tongarra Road Figure 4.7: 2011 Daily Traffic Profile – South of Tongarra Road Figure 4.8: Current Year Model Traffic Volumes Figure 4.9: Current Year Model – Travel Times Figure 4.10: Current Year Model – Level of Service
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Figure 5.1: Future Year Model (No Project) - Traffic Volumes Figure 5.2: Future Year Model (No Project) – Travel Times Figure 5.3: Future Year Model (No Project) – Level of Service Figure 5.4: Princes Motorway Merge Lengths Figure 5.5: Risk of Right Turn Queue Impacts Figure 5.6: Princes Highway / Creamery Road Intersection Figure 5.7: Princes Highway / Airport Road Intersection Figure 5.8: Princes Highway / Tongarra Road Intersection
Figure 6.1: Project Inclusions – Tallawarra Interchange Figure 6.2: Project Inclusions – Tongarra Road Interchange Figure 6.3: Project Inclusions – Croome Road Interchange Figure 6.4: Project Inclusions – Oak Flats Interchange
Figure 7.1: Future Year Model Traffic Volumes – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs Figure 7.2: Future Year Model Travel Time – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs Figure 7.3: Future Year Model Level of Service – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs Figure 7.4: Future Year Model Through Traffic Proportions – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs Figure 7.5: Future Year Model Traffic Volumes – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.6: Future Year Model Travel Time – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.7: Future Year Model Level of Service – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.8: Future Year Model Through Traffic Proportions – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.9: Strategic Bus Corridors
Figure 8.1: Proposed Bypass Shortened Alignment.
Attachments Attachment A: Travel Time Report Attachment B: Model Validation Report and Technical Note Attachment C: Option Testing Report Attachment D: Traffic Volume Plots Attachment E: LOS Plots Attachment F: Select Link Plots Attachment G: Crash Analysis Report Attachment H: Economic Assessment Report
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS Term Meaning AM peak period The busiest 1 hour traffic period in the morning. Arterial roads The main or trunk roads of the State road network. AADT Average annual daily traffic. The total volume of traffic passing a roadside observation point over a period of a year, divided by the number of days per year. It is calculated from mechanically obtained axle counts. Base case Also known as “Do nothing” case. Used in evaluating projects to compare the cost and benefit of the existing road (the base case) with another or a number of other projects or options. Benefit Cost Ratio Calculated as the discounted benefits over the life of a project divided the (BCR) discounted capital costs plus discounted operating and maintenance costs. The ratio needs to be 1 or above for the project to proceed. Bottleneck Section of road which does not have sufficient capacity to handle the traffic demand. As a consequence, the traffic downstream of the bottleneck is often free-flowing, whilst the traffic upstream is slow moving. Capacity The nominal maximum number of vehicles that can travel along a road in a given time. Carriageway The portion of a roadway used by vehicles including shoulders and ancillary lanes. Concept design Initial functional layout of a road/road system or other infrastructure. Used to facilitate understanding of a project, establish feasibility, and provide a basis for estimating and to determine further investigations needed for detailed design. Cordoned This is a modelling process whereby the study area is ‘cut out’ or ‘windowed out’ of the WOLSH Model to create a sub-area model. This is done to eliminate any information from areas outside of the study area that may influence the results. It provides a more targeted modelling focus with a greater level of accuracy in results within the study area. Current Year The 2011 WOLSH model was cordoned to the study area and validated to 2013 Model travel time and traffic count data. This is the ‘Current Year Model’ Degree of The ratio of the traffic volume entering an intersection to the total capacity of the saturation intersection in a specific period. Design year The predicted year in which the design traffic would be reached Discount Rate It measures the rate at which one wishes to sacrifice future consumption for present consumption. It is the rate at which costs and benefits in future years are discounted to express them in present values in the base year. The inflation free rate currently being used is 7%. Do nothing No upgrade of the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway between Tallawarra and Oak Flats. Evaluation Period The time frame over which the costs and benefits of a project are compared (sometimes referred to as the project life). It encompasses the initial period of the capital investment and the subsequent period over which the benefits of the project accrue. In many cases 20 years is adequate; 30 years is the maximum period usually used for road evaluation. First year rate of The first year rate of return (expressed as a percentage) is a measure of the return (FYRR) benefits achieved in the first full year of a scheme's operation divided by the capital costs incurred to achieve this. The first year rate of return is typically used to determine the best start date for a scheme.
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Term Meaning Future Year Model The WOLSH 2036+ model was adopted, with 10 years of background through traffic growth applied to create a ‘future year’ (approximated 2046) scenario. Grade separation The separation of road, rail or other transport modes, so that crossing movements at intersections are at different levels. ha Hectares Haywards Bay The junction of Yallah Road, Haywards Bay Drive and the Princes Highway. Interchange hr Hour HV Heavy vehicle, which is classified as a Class 3 vehicle (a two axle truck) or larger, in accordance with the Austroads Vehicle Classification System. Interchange An intersection of two or more roads that typically uses grade separation, and one or more ramps, to permit traffic on at least one carriageway to pass through the junction without directly crossing any other traffic stream. Internal rate of The discount rate at which the present value of benefits equals the present value return (IRR) of costs. An internal rate of return greater than the discount rate indicates an economically worthwhile project. Intersection at- An intersection where carriageways cross at a common level. grade Junction A place where two or more roads meet. Km/h Kilometres per hour. Local Road A road or street used primarily for access to abutting properties. LGA Local Government Area. LoS Level of service. A qualitative measure describing operational conditions within a traffic stream and their perception by motorists and/or passengers. Midblock A general location on the Princes Highway or local roads between two intersections. Mode A type or method of transport movement – including for the road corridor: cars, buses, bikes and pedestrians. NB Northbound Net Present Value The difference between the present value of benefits and the present value of (NPV) costs. A positive net present value indicates that the project has economic merit. Net Present Value The overall economic return of a project in relation to its requirement for initial per dollar of capital capital expenditure. Defined as the NPV divided by present value of the Investment (NPVI) investment costs where the capital costs are those incurred to initially complete the project. The project with the highest NPVI is chosen first when there is a constraint on capital. O-D Origin – Destination Princes Highway For the purpose of this project and study area, it is the section of State Highway 1 between the Illawarra Highway and Oak Flats. Princes Motorway For the purpose of this project and study area, it is the section of State Highway 1 between Tallawarra and the Illawarra Highway. PM peak period The busiest 1 hour traffic period in the evening. Project area The Princes Highway / Princes Motorway between the Tallawarra Interchange and
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Term Meaning Oak Flats Interchange including the adjacent area (local land use and road network including the Illawarra Highway to Tongarra Road and Tongarra Road between the Illawarra Highway and the Princes Highway). Proposed Bypass The proposed project to include a motorway standard road between Tallawarra Interchange and Oak Flats Interchange. Private vehicle Includes all motorised vehicles such as cars, 4WDs, vans, motorbikes, motor scooters, utes and trucks. Public transport Includes train, bus (government and private) and ferry (government and private). Oak Flats The junction of Lake Entrance Road, the Princes Highway and the East-West Interchange Link. Residual value The residual value is a measure of the capacity of the asset to continue earning benefits after the evaluation period. The residual value is based on the economic life or useful life of the asset. ROADS AND NSW Roads and Maritime Services (formerly NSW Roads and Traffic Authority MARITIME (RTA)). Road reserve A legally defined area of land within which facilities such as roads, footpaths and associated features may be constructed for public travel. Roundabout An intersection where all traffic travels in one direction clockwise around a central island. Slip lane A lane providing for left turning vehicles allowing them to avoid stopping at an intersection. s Seconds SB Southbound Tallawarra The junction of the Princes Highway connecting Dapto to Tallawarra, and the Interchange Princes Motorway. Traffic Demand The level of vehicular traffic generated by the surrounding land uses including local, regional and inter-regional areas. Veh Vehicle VKT Vehicle Kilometres Travelled. A measure often used by traffic practitioners to convert traffic performance measures into a comparative rate. vpd Vehicles per day vph Vehicles per hour WOLSH Model The Wollongong and Shellharbour Strategic Transport Model validated to area- wide traffic data / statistics and is the reference model used for the Illawarra Region. WOLSH 2036+ The WOLSH Model scenario that considers the full development of the West Dapto area and its surrounds which may not be necessarily be entirely completed by 2036, but a point in time in the future dependant on market conditions.
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND The Princes Motorway and Princes Highway connects Sydney to Adelaide along the coastline of southeast Australia (refer Figure 1.1). The highway forms part of the original main road network connecting major capital cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide.
Project Location
Figure 1.1: Princes Highway Corridor The introduction of the Hume Highway was intended to provide a more direct and efficient route for the movement of freight between Sydney and Melbourne, resulting in the function of the Princes Highway corridor to serve lesser distance trips between the Illawarra and South Coast Regions and onwards to Sydney. The corridor also provides connectivity from the Southern Highlands Region to Wollongong via the Illawarra Highway and Macquarie Pass (refer Figure 1.2).
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Project Location
Figure 1.2: Regional Connectivity Between Wollongong and Nowra, the Princes Highway attracts a high proportion of intra-regional freight trips as well as inter-regional and intra-regional tourist based trips. With the Princes Highway being originally constructed in the early 1900’s, and increases in traffic volumes, a number of upgrades have been provided to improve the highway for road traffic. Figure 1.3 below shows the highway upgrades recently completed along this section of the Princes Highway including planning underway for future upgrade sections. The Princes Highway between Wollongong and Yallah travels through a number of town centres such as Figtree, Unanderra and Dapto. These town centres are bypassed by a separated dual carriageway known as the Princes Motorway. The Princes Motorway becomes the Princes Highway at the Illawarra Highway intersection at Albion Park Rail and continues south as the Princes Highway to the Victorian state border. To the south of Oak Flats, the Princes Highway has been recently upgraded and the road section resembles a high standard road environment with restricted access and is signposted at 100kph. This high quality highway section is adjacent to another recent upgrade further south between Dunmore and Kiama. Further upgrades are underway or in planning further south between Gerringong and Bomaderry.
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1.2 STUDY PURPOSE A route selection study for the proposed upgrade to the Princes Highway between Yallah and Oak Flats was undertaken in February 1995. This study used a multi-criteria assessment to determine the preferred alignment of the future Princes Motorway corridor (Princes Highway Bypass). The preferred alignment as announced in August 1996 as a result of the route selection study is shown in Figure 1.4 below.
Existing Princes Highway
Proposed Bypass Alignment
Figure 1.4: Preferred Alignment (Yallah to Oak Flats Route Selection Study – 1995) The corridor of land required to construct this preferred alignment was then placed into the Wollongong and Shellharbour City Council Local Environmental Plan’s (LEP) to be reserved for the future. This corridor is shown in Figure 1.5 below. The LEP corridor as announced in the mid-90’s is currently an additional travel distance of 3km compared to the existing Princes Motorway / Princes Highway route (ie 10.6km length via the proposed bypass as opposed to the trip length on the existing Princes Highway of 7.6km).
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LEP Corridor
Princes Highway
Tongarra Road
Figure 1.5: Proposed Bypass LEP Corridor The purpose of this study is to re-validate the current year strategic transport model in the immediate area ensuring that the model is appropriate for the current conditions and re-assess the potential use and appropriateness of the proposed bypass corridor alignment. A key part of this study is to better understand the need for the bypass, through defining the existing problems and the projects benefits, which in turn will respond to the studies key purpose.
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1.3 STUDY AREA The study area adopted for the assessment is shown in Figure 1.6.
Study Area
Proposed Bypass
Figure 1.6: Study Area
1.4 STUDY ACKNOWLEDGMENTS All strategic modelling inputs and outputs associated with this report have been completed by TDG (formerly Gabites Porter). Crash data analysis reporting and a large component of existing traffic count data was provided by ROADS AND MARITIME Wollongong.
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1.5 REPORT STRUCTURE The report structure is summarised in Figure 1.7 below.
Review of Previous Study
Yallah to Oak Flats Route Selection Study (1995)
Existing Traffic Environment
Key Roads Key Junctions Speed Limits Active Transport Parking Adjacent Land Uses
Existing Traffic Performance
Road Safety Traffic Volumes Travel Times Model Performance
Future Traffic Conditions without the Project
Modelling Performance ‘First Principles’ Assessment Other Impacts
The Proposed Bypass Project
Project Objectives Project Details Property Access
Future Year Performance of the Proposed Bypass
Approach Traffic Performance Other Benefits
Value for Money
Summary of Economic Assessment Report
Figure 1.7: Report Structure
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2. REVIEW OF PREVIOUS STUDY - YALLAH TO OAK FLATS ROUTE SELECTION STUDY (1995)
2.1 BACKGROUND In 1994 a route selection study commenced for a high standard divided carriageway from Yallah to Oak Flats, to provide a strategy for the most congested section of roadway between Sydney and Nowra. The project objective was to establish a road corridor that would operate at LOS C or better for weekday traffic to at least 2024. It was also aimed to reduce the crash rate to be comparable with other parts of the state through reducing the conflict between through and local traffic. The project considered the future urban land release area and was required to be compatible with the forecast growth pattern.
2.2 OPTIONS CONSIDERED The traffic study identified that to accommodate anticipated local and through traffic growth, road upgrades must be provided for the following key movements: . north-south Princes Highway traffic through the study area; . north-west movements between the Princes Highway and Albion Park via the Illawarra Highway; . north-east movement between the Princes Highway and Shellharbour; and . local traffic movements within Oak Flats and Albion Park Rail. Six different route options were developed and analysed in response to this need. The options considered were as follows: . Option 1 – on existing Princes Highway alignment; . Option 2 – runs on a combination of the Princes Highway and the railway alignment between Albion Rail to Oak Flats; . Option 3 – travels between the Aerodrome and the Princes Highway then runs in the railway corridor from Albion Park Rail to Oak Flats; . Option 4 – to the east predominantly down the railway corridor to Oak Flats; . Option 5 – follows the existing alignment then continues down the Illawarra Highway and through the Croom Regional Sporting Complex and the Croom Reserve onto the east-west link corridor; and . Option 6 – same as Option 5, but passes west of the Croom Regional Sporting Complex. The traffic study took into account forecast residential growth and predicted that the Princes Highway would experience substantial delay around 2011. The study found that generally option 1 was predicted to attract the highest volume of traffic, followed by option 2, 3 and 4 with option 5 and 6 attracting the least. The low traffic usage for options 5 and 6 was attributed to them being longer. It also noted that the model was very sensitive to distance and travel times and may not accurately depict driver preference for convenient but not necessarily shorter routes. The study also highlighted that the western options were more beneficial as they better addressed the future traffic volumes predicted to be generated by future growth areas. It also identified that it would be difficult to deter traffic from using the Princes Highway without implementing restrictions. The original study looked at the overall traffic benefits of the entire road network as a result of the different options. It found that option 5 and 6 perform substantially better in terms of overall travel time and travel distance. This was due to local access arrangements with options 1 to 4 requiring service roads and local access was reduced when compared to the existing traffic environment. The western options 5 and 6 were identified as the preferred options and were further developed by Roads and Maritime in consultation with the community and Council and led to the adoption of the LEP Corridor.
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3. EXISTING TRAFFIC ENVIRONMENT
3.1 KEY ROADS
3.1.1 Overview The Princes Motorway / Princes Highway is a major road link connecting Sydney and Wollongong to the Illawarra, South Coast and Victoria along the east coast of NSW. It provides a road link for the following purposes: . commuter route between Sydney, Wollongong and Nowra; . local route for residents; . major tourist route for destinations in the Illawarra and South Coast; and . important freight route for the South Coast. Considering the variety of uses of the road corridor and the substantial development proposed in the adjacent areas there is a need to balance the conflicting uses of the existing transport corridor within the study area. The road network does not currently respond well to its multiple functions and is inconsistent in form. Figure 3.1 demonstrates the inconsistency in road environment of adjacent sections when compared to the Yallah to Oak Flats Princes Highway section. This is further complicated by the connections provided to the Illawarra Highway at the northern end of this road section.
Princes Motorway
Proposed Bypass
Princes Hwy
Princes Hwy
Princes Hwy South
Figure 3.1: Inconsistency of Road Environment The urban arterial road standard between Yallah and Oak Flats is going to become an increasing issue within the road network, particularly considering its connectivity to Shellharbour Town Centre, Albion Park Airport, Macquarie Pass and the impending large scale development areas of West Dapto, Tallawarra and
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Calderwood. The need to consider separating the existing multiple functions through the implementation of the proposed bypass will become increasing necessary.
3.1.2 Princes Motorway Within the study area, the Princes Motorway is defined as being the road section from the Tallawarra Interchange and the Illawarra Highway as shown in Figure 3.2.
Study Area Tallawarra Interchange
Princes Motorway Haywards Bay Interchange
Figure 3.2: Princes Motorway The Princes Motorway is a motorway standard road with four lanes divided carriageway with restricted accesses. Figure 3.3 shows the typical road cross-section of the Princes Motorway.
Figure 3.3: Princes Motorway Typical Section
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3.1.3 Princes Highway Within the study area, the Princes Highway is defined as being the road section from the Illawarra Highway roundabout and the Oak Flats Interchange as shown in Figure 3.4.
Study Area
Princes Highway
Oak Flats Interchange
Figure 3.4: Princes Highway The Princes Highway is an urban arterial with two lanes in each direction. The highway through Albion Park Rail Town Centre travels parallel to the south coast railway line and the Albion Park Station is adjacent to the Princes Highway. A number of the intersections along the Princes Highway section include both signalised and un-signalised intersections with additional lanes provided for turning traffic. Figure 3.5 shows the typical road cross-section of the Princes Highway (intersection with Creamery Road shown, looking south).
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Figure 3.5: Princes Highway Typical Section
3.2 KEY JUNCTIONS
3.2.1 Interchanges There are three (3) existing interchanges along the route, listed as follows: . Tallawarra Interchange (Princes Highway); . Haywards Bay Interchange (Haywards Bay Drive); and . Oak Flats Interchange (New Lake Entrance Road). Figure 3.6 provides an overview of the configuration of the existing interchanges.
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Tallawarra Interchange (north) Tallawarra Interchange (south)
Haywards Bay Interchange Oak Flats Interchange
Figure 3.6: Interchange Configurations The Tallawarra Interchange and Haywards Bay Interchange are located in close proximity to each other and are inconsistent with Austroads Guide to Road Design (Part 4c). Section 2.4.2 states the following: “The general conclusion that can be drawn from these requirements is that the minimum spacing of interchanges is: . in urban areas about: - 2 km on four-lane freeways (i.e. two lanes in each direction) - 3 km on six-lane freeways - 4 km on eight-lane freeways . in rural areas between 5 km and 8 km.”
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Closely spaced interchanges result in an overall reduction of traffic capacity and safety. This is due to traffic at entry ramps merging with through traffic immediately followed by traffic changing lanes and diverging to the subsequent exit ramp. This arrangement results in a substantial proportion of vehicles weaving / changing lanes which increases the probability of ‘rear-end’ and ‘side-swipe’ type crashes. Figure 3.7 shows the interchange spacing within the study area. This is in contrast to the Princes Motorway just to the north of the study area where there are longer distances between interchanges. With the Princes Motorway terminating at the Illawarra Highway roundabout (where it changes to the Princes Highway), under the current traffic arrangements, the closely spaced interchanges may be considered acceptable as it assists with the transition from a motorway to highway road standard. When the proposed bypass is implemented however, this logic no longer applies and the interchange spacing should be designed to comply with Austroads recommendations. As can be seen by Figure 3.7, the close interchange spacing between Masters Road Interchange and Crown Street Interchange (northbound) is only 300m and during peak hour traffic, this section of motorway is often noticed to fail (ie the traffic demand is greater than the available traffic capacity).
Crown St Interchange 300m Masters Rd Interchange 500m
Five Islands Rd Interchange
2.4km
1.5km Northcliffe Dr Interchange
Kanahooka Interchange 1.7km
Fowlers Rd Interchange
2.9km
Tallawarra Interchange
420m
Haywards Bay Interchange
320m
Study Area
Figure 3.7: Interchange Spacing between Entry Ramps and Exit Ramps
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3.2.2 Signalised Intersections There are six (6) signalised intersections along the route listed as follows: . Illawarra Highway (roundabout with traffic signal approach metering); . Airport Road; . Creamery Road; . Station Street; . Tongarra Road; and . Colden Drive.
3.2.3 Unsignalised Intersections There are four (4) all movement unsignalised intersections along the route listed as follows: . Creole Road; . Kimbeth Crescent; . Kaylaur Crescent; and . Woollybutt Drive. There are three (3) unsignalised intersections (with banned / restricted turn movements) along the route listed as follows: . Miall Way; . Hargraves Avneue; and . Durgadin Drive.
3.3 SPEED LIMITS The speed limit through the study area varies between 100 km/h and 60 km/h. Figure 3.8 shows the locations of the speed zones.
Figure 3.8: Speed Zones
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3.4 ACTIVE TRANSPORT
3.4.1 Public Transport Premier Illawarra operates four bus routes that pass within the study area. Routes 37 and 57 are known as the Lake Link service and run along the full length of the study area as part of its loop around Lake Illawarra connecting Wollongong and Shellharbour. Routes 77 and 76 also service the southern end of the study area and connect to Albion Park and Shellharbour. These services operate hourly in each direction. The bus service map is shown in Figure 3.9 below.
(Source: Premier Illawarra, 2013) Figure 3.9: Existing Bus Routes Premier Motor Service provides bus services between Sydney and Melbourne and has a stop at Albion Park rail station. The South Coast Rail Line runs adjacent to the Princes Highway along the length of the study area and provides direct connection northwards to Sydney and southwards to Nowra. This service operates approximately hourly in each direction. The service can be accessed at Albion Park and Oak Flats stations. Access to the rail station exists directly from the Princes Highway as shown in Figure 3.10.
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Albion Park Railway Station
Figure 3.10: Albion Park Railway Station
3.4.2 Walking and Cycling Shellharbour City Council has developed a shared path strategy for their Council area. Figure 3.11 shows the existing and proposed shared path facilities proposed in the vicinity of the study area.
(Source: Shared Path Strategy, 2010, Shelharbour Council) Figure 3.11: Existing Shared Path Strategy All of the main arterials within the study current contain (or are proposed to contain) dedicated off-road shared use paths. These corridors are also considered to contain the highest pedestrian volumes, with a Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page 17
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larger number of pedestrians expected to cross the Princes Highway in the vicinity of the Station Road intersection as it connects the residential areas to the west, with both the rail station and the Albion Park Rail town centre.
3.5 PARKING A significant proportion of the study area has edge lines and parking lanes adjacent to the travel lanes. Parking within the Albion Park Rail Town Centre has a high level of parking turnover, and hence the interaction between vehicles parking and leaving parking spaces and through traffic results in a reduction in capacity of the adjacent through travel lanes. There are a number of other sites along the corridor with direct road frontage access that introduces similar problems for through traffic. The capacity of the combined two southbound travel lanes, in particular, could be as low as 2,400-2,700 vehicles per hour. Figure 3.12 below describes the parking and through traffic conflict that exists to the immediate south of the Creamery Road intersection with the Princes Highway.
Albion Park Rail Shops
Parallel Parking
Parking Impacts to through traffic
Figure 3.12: On-street Parking and Through Traffic Impacts
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3.6 ADJACENT LAND USES There is a number of existing land uses that influence travel patterns in the area. These major trip generators are listed as follows.
3.6.1 Haywards Bay The Haywards Bay residential development is located immediately east of the Princes Motorway at the northern end of the study area. The residential catchment has direct access to the Princes Motorway via a grade separated interchange. As the residential community has limited retail or business land use inclusive in the development, the majority of residents drive to Albion Park, Shellharbour Town Centre, Dapto or Wollongong for their daily needs. The Haywards Bay development currently contains in the order of 250 houses, with the ability for the area to continue to develop to around 400 houses. This equates to approximately 3,500vpd. These vehicles are expected to distribute to the broader road network, however with the majority expected to use the Princes Motorway. Figure 3.13 shows the extent of residential development in Haywards Bay and its proximity to the Princes Motorway.
Haywards Bay
Princes Motorway
Figure 3.13: Haywards Bay It is noted that the distance between the south facing ramps at the Haywards Bay Interchange and Illawarra Highway roundabout is very short, and as such, this motorway section reaches traffic capacity during peak periods mainly due to the effects of traffic weave movements from people entering and exiting the motorway.
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3.6.2 Albion Park Rail Town Centre Albion Park Rail Town Centre is located on both the main north-south road link as well as the main north- south rail link. It is located to the immediate south-east of the Princes Highway and Creamery Road intersection. A rail station exists within the town centre, this being Albion Park Station. The fact that it is located along two key transport corridors which have conflicting needs and objectives is a key issue for the centre. The Albion Park Rail station is also likely to remain a lower order rail station providing for local resident’s needs, with the larger station at Oak Flats providing a greater interchange role with buses and park and ride. There are a number of shops that exist along the Princes Highway frontage that benefit from passing traffic. On-street parking exists along the Princes Highway, which provides access benefits for local shop owners, however introduces impacts to through traffic due to the vehicle manoeuvring that occur whilst parking. The shops appear to be well used, with three to five cars often noticed to be parked in front of the shops through the day, with each of these spaces frequently being turned over (ie cars are only parked for a short duration). The through traffic affects the amenity of the town centre and could be under-pinned as one of the main reasons as to why the centre hasn’t flourished.
Albion Park Rail Town Centre
Albion Park Railway Station
Figure 3.14: Albion Park Rail Town Centre
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3.6.3 Local industrial areas There is a substantial area set aside for light and heavy industrial uses adjacent to the existing Princes Highway corridor along the study section. The uses have been operational for many years and are considered appropriate for any future upgrade within the existing Princes Highway corridor. The limited access that exists for many of the sites and the need for suitable access provisions for larger vehicles will require strong consideration as the project progresses through more detailed design phases.
Industrial Lands
Figure 3.15: Industrial Lands
3.6.4 Albion Park Town Centre Albion Park Town Centre currently provides essential services for the immediate residential catchment area. The Albion Park community has grown rapidly over the past 10 years. There is a possibility to reduce the demand for car use for this centre by improving pedestrian, cycle and bus connections between the future Calderwood/Yallah-Marshall Mount land release areas and the existing Albion Park Town Centre and onward towards Albion Park Rail and Oak Flats rail stations as well as Shellharbour and Dapto Sub-regional centres. The intersection of Terry Street and Tongarra Road experiences substantial during the morning and evening peak periods. Heavy delays are also known to occur during during long weekends and holiday season when a large amount of traffic heads towards Jamberoo or the Southern Highlands (via Macquarie Pass).
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To assist with preserving the intersections’ capacity for through traffic, a number of right turn bans exist, including the right turn from west to south and east to north.
Albion Park Town Centre
Figure 3.16: Terry Street / Tongarra Road intersection
3.6.5 Flinders The suburb of Flinders is located to the immediate south of Oak Flats interchange. The residential suburb has grown substantially over the past 5-10 years and is likely to contribute to the need for the Princes Highway bypass, particularly for motorists wishing to travel to Wollongong or Sydney.
3.6.6 Shellharbour Town Centre The Shellharbour Town Centre is currently undergoing major growth. Stockland Shellharbour recently completed its re-development / expansion of its shopping centre and now contains 75,000m2 Gross Leasable Floor Area (GLFA) to make it the second largest shopping centre in the Illawarra, South Coast and Southern Highland Regions. The expansion of Stockland Shellharbour is triggering further growth within and around the sub-regional centre. It is noted that whilst the centre has some access to bus services, the main mode of transport to the town centre historically has been by car. The design of the bypass at the Oak Flats Interchange will require particular attention to this traffic demand. Efforts to separate shorter distant local destined trips from longer distant “through traffic” trips will require further consideration.
3.6.7 Emerging Growth Areas
Overview Figure 3.17 highlights the areas likely to be further developed in the forthcoming years and the quantum of traffic they are expected to generate. These development areas have been taken into consideration within the strategic modelling completed as part of this study. The future development areas have been assumed to contain a 15% reduction in car use on the basis of being designed to encourage a greater level of
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walking, cycling and public transport use. This has been taken into account in the strategic modelling as well as the approximated volumes included in Figure 3.17 below.
Traffic growth from the West Dapto North 19,000 lots 150,000vpd
Road Section to be Tallawarra placed under 1,200 lots substantial pressure in 10,000vpd the coming years
Calderwood 7,700 lots 50,000vpd Shellharbour City Centre Traffic growth from the Southern Tullimbar Highlands 2,000 lots Region 15,000vpd Shell Cove Marina
Traffic growth from the South
Figure 3.17: Impending Development Activity and Approximate Daily Traffic Impact
Calderwood Calderwood is a master-planned community by Lend Lease. The Calderwood community is expected to contain strong connections to Albion Park. Upon completion Calderwood will include schools, playgrounds, sporting fields, a community centre, shops, cafes, restaurants and business facilities. The Calderwood development contains approximately 7,700 lots for residential dwellings and is expected to be released over the next 40 years. The traffic generated from the Calderwood area is expected to be in the order of 50,000vpd. There is expected to be a substantial demand for local trips between Calderwood and Shellharbour Town Centre.
West Dapto Land Release The West Dapto land release has been gazetted by the state government resulting in a revised Local Environmental Plan for the area. The proposed development consists of a number of different stages and is a long term land release development including approximately 19,000 lots. This equates to a traffic generation of approximately 150,000vpd. Whilst the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway corridor will not attract a large portion of the development traffic due to the promotion on trip internalisation, there will still be substantial growth within the study area from the development and this will have an impact on the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway corridor. Residential lots are currently being sold to the west of Horsley. It is expected that a large portion of the West Dapto community will conduct day to day activities within their respective local centre or Dapto Town Centre. A lower proportion are expected to desire to travel further afield to centres such as Wollongong or Shellharbour. However, with the recent redevelopment of the Shellharbour shopping centre there is a Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page 23
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strong likelihood that motorists from the southern portion of the West Dapto land release will desire to travel to Shellharbour in lieu of Dapto Town Centre or Wollongong City Centre.
Yallah-Marshall Mount Town Centre The Yallah-Marshall Mount Town Centre is located within the West Dapto Land Release Area. It is located at the southern extremity of the Wollongong LGA bordering with Shellharbour LGA. As such, it will perform as a transitionary centre in a similar manner to Tallawarra and Haywards Bay, whereby whilst trips originate within the Wollongong LGA, they are more than likely destined for the Shellharbour LGA. The Yallah-Marshall Mount release area is expected to introduce an additional 3,200 dwellings, resulting in an approximate increase in traffic by 25,000vpd. Similar to the West Dapto land release the development will be designed to promote trip internalisation. Notwithstanding this, a large amount of development traffic is expected to use the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway corridor. The current plans for the development include Yallah Road as a key access road to the Princes Motorway. Yallah Road currently connects to the Haywards Bay interchange, and the capacity of this interchange will not be able to meet the demands associated with the Yallah-Marshall Mount Town Centre. In additional, traffic from Calderwood is expected to partially travel through Yallah-Marshall Mount Town Centre and Yallah Road to access the Princes Motorway. Local access to and from the existing Princes Motorway at the Haywards Bay interchange is likely to result in congestion given the number of trips likely to be generated from the West Dapto development this is further exasperated by the distance between access ramps and ramp configuration at the interchange.
Tallawarra Tallawarra development is located immediately to the east of the Princes Motorway just north of Haywards Bay. It consists of 1,200 residential lots including 40 hectares of commercial and industrial land and 16 hectares of retail development (refer Figure 3.18). The traffic generation from the development is expected to be in the order of 10,000vpd with a large portion of these trips are expected to utilise either the Princes Highway into Dapto or the Princes Motorway. The proposed Tallawarra development is planned to utilise the Tallawarra Interchange (Princes Highway / Princes Motorway Interchange) to provide access needs for its future residential and employment based community. The attractiveness of being located immediately adjacent to the Princes Motorway / Princes Highway interchange is going to make it very difficult to promote alternative transport modes for access and reduce short distance trips along the new bypass.
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(Source: Corkery Consulting) Figure 3.18: Tallawarra Development
Illawarra Regional Airport The Illawarra Regional Airport is a security controlled, licensed airport that is owned and operated by Shellharbour City Council. It is the base for a growing Light Aeronautics Industry, which provides maintenance and engineering services for aircraft ranging from ultra-light to medium size turbo prop and jet aircraft. The Airport provides a cost effective alternative to the Sydney basin airports. It is not encumbered by restricted airspace or air traffic controls, which cause costly delays for aircraft movements. The airport has direct freeway access to Sydney and is adjacent to the South Coast Railway Line to Sydney. The Historical Aircraft Restoration Society (HARS) museum and workshop located at the airport is an internationally acclaimed tourist attraction and just one of the many tourist activities that the airport has to offer. The Illawarra Regional Airport used to cater for regular Qantas trips to / from Wollongong. On 10 August 2010, Council resolved to make the Illawarra Regional Airport Stage 1 Flight Operational Capacity Study publicly available. The study forms a basis for development of a masterplan for the airport. The original and current airport masterplan was prepared in 1990. The development works identified on this plan have been substantially completed and a new masterplan is required to take the airport into the future. There has been considerable change in the aviation industry during this period, particularly with the major airlines introducing a low cost business model, which has created significant growth in passenger numbers. More recently, airlines are focusing on the larger regional areas to encourage passenger growth. Smaller aircraft, capable of seating 70-100 passengers and able to operate off the shorter runways that exist at regional airports, are being purchased by airline operators to provide services between regional areas and popular destinations. There have been a number of proposals considered to increase the utilisation of the employment lands surrounding the Airport. Whilst these proposals have not yet resulted in any substantial construction activity there is a large portion of land zoned for industrial development in this area. Figure 3.19 shows the proposed location of the business park, being immediately adjacent to the proposed bypass transport corridor.
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(source: Illawarra Regional Airport Stage 1 – Flight Operational Capacity Study, August 2010, Airport Masterplanning Consultants) Figure 3.19: Proposed Future Business Park
3.6.8 Summary of Adjacent Land Uses The land use intensity over the past 10 years has been gradually increasing around the immediate study area. Residential population increases have been noticeable in the areas of Flinders, Albion Park and West Dapto. Currently there is substantial growth of employment lands occurring within Shellharbour Town Centre. Over the next 10 years, planned growth at Tallawarra, Calderwood, and Yallah-Marshall Mount, is likely to see the performance of the existing Princes Highway deteriorate rapidly. Any growth to Airport land uses or increase in traffic along Tongarra Road is likely to significantly affect the performance of the Princes Highway in the northbound direction. Whilst further growth towards West Dapto, Tallawarra, Yallah-Marshall Mount and Calderwood is likely to increase congestion on the Princes Motorway section between the Tallawarra Interchange and the Illawarra Highway intersection (inclusive).
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4. EXISTING TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE
4.1 ROAD SAFETY The crash history for a five year period between April 2008 and March 2013 found 367 crashes to occur in the area covered by the following road sections: . Princes Highway / Princes Motorway (Haywards Bay interchange to Oak Flats interchange); . Illawarra Highway (north of Tongarra Road to the Princes Highway); and . Tongarra Road (east of the Illawarra Highway to the Princes Highway). The crash trend for the study area is shown in Figure 4.1 below. The crash data is suggesting a consistent increase in the number of crashes which is aligned with the increasing levels of congestion.
25
20
15
10 Crashes/Quarter
5
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Crashes/Quarter Casualties/Quarter Linear (Crashes/Quarter) Linear (Casualties/Quarter) Figure 4.1: Crash Trend
Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Corridor Crash Rates Crash rates account for the differences in traffic flows by taking the AADT and the length of road into consideration, and therefore are a more accurate measure of the risk of a crash occurring than crash frequencies alone. The formula to calculate a crash rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres is given below:
A crash rate will be high if a large number of crashes occur over a short space of time and a short length of road. The regional crash rate for rural undivided carriageways in NSW is 65 per 100 MVKM (from road safety indicators by planning sections report 2005-2007). The crash rates for the section of the Princes Highway between the Illawarra Highway and Oak Flats Interchange was 77 crashes per million vehicle kilometres. This result shows that this section of the Princes Highway has relatively high crash rates per 100 MVKM due to the relatively large number of crashes occurring in a short section. The crash rates for this section is higher than the average.
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Another road safety measure is the casualty crash rate expressed per kilometre and therefore traffic volume is not used in the calculations. A casualty crash is defined as one that results in a person being injured or killed. The casualty crash rates for three sections of the existing Princes Highway / Princes Motorway are shown in Table 4.1. This is also compared with the class average casualty crash rates for similar types of roads in urban environments throughout the state. Table 4.1: Crash Rate per Km Class Average Casualty Section From Section To Casualty Crash per Crash per km km
Tallawarra Interchange Illawarra Hwy 1.9 4.0
Illawarra Hwy Tongarra Rd 4.3 5.8
Tongarra Rd Oak Flats Interchange 5.8 5.8
The casualty crash rates are all below the state class averages. It is noted that the northern portion of the study area shows much lower casualty crash rates this is likely to be due to the road environment where the northern section has controlled access points with only grade separated access. The middle portion of the study area has a significantly higher crash rate than the northern portion, and the southern is the highest. Crash Types Four most common types of crashes account for almost 80% of the reported crashes on the Princes Highway: . Rear-end (50.5%); . Intersection, adjacent approaches (9.2%); . Opposing vehicles; turning (10.1%); and . Off road on straight, hit object (8.9%). The predominant crash type is rear end crashes with a high proportion of crashes involving vehicles turning at intersections. ‘Rear-end’ crash types are usually as a result of traffic congestion. Currently through traffic is combined with local traffic causing significant conflict between turn movements and traffic behaviour. There were only a small number of pedestrian (1.8%) and cyclist (1.2%) related crashes. Speeding, fatigue and alcohol formed a contributing factor for only about 10% of all crashes on the Princes Highway. This would suggest that the traffic conditions (congestion) are expected to be a major contributor towards the ‘rear-end’ crashes that have been occurring. It is also likely that this could be a contributing factor for the ‘off-path’ and ‘side-swipe’ type crashes. Figure 4.2 shows the location of the ‘rear-end’ crashes that have occurred between April 2008 and March 2013.
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Figure 4.2: Rear-end Crash Summary
Cost to the Community The total cost to the community of all crashes within the study area is determined by utilising the generic crash costs based on the severity of the crash, as shown in Table 4.2. The estimated generic cost per crash is based on the methodology developed in Austroads (2003) Economic Evaluation of Road Investment Proposals: Improved Methods for Estimating Australian Unit Crash Costs, AP-R238. This methodology derives the generic crash cost for urban and rural areas by combining adjusted person casualty cost with details of casualty outcomes associated with each crash category. The figures are based on 2010 volumes and are the urban cost per crash figures. Table 4.2: Total Cost to the Community Degree of Crash Number of Crashes Cost per Crash Total Cost Fatal 2 $1,999,000 $3,998,000 Injury 164 $195,615 $32,080,860 Non-injury 201 $8,681 $1,744,881 Total 367 $37,823,741
The total cost to the community as a result of the crashes that have occurred within the study are is subsequently in the order of $8M per annum.
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4.2 EXISTING TRAFFIC VOLUMES
4.2.1 Permanent Count Station There is one permanent count station at the northern end of the study area (north of the Illawarra Highway near Macquarie Rivulet). This counter can record vehicle volumes but cannot classify vehicles. Data is available through to November 2008. Data from this site through to 2007 is included in the summarised traffic counts included below. Data for the 2008 year was excluded as it was incomplete.
4.2.2 Coverage Count Stations There are four coverage count sites along the length of the study area (see Table 4.3). Counts undertaken at these stations are short term tube counts (usually approximately two weeks). One of these sites coincides with the permanent count station from Section 4.2.1 above. Table 4.3: Coverage Count Site Locations
Location (Princes Highway) Volumes Classification Speed Latest Data
North of Illawarra Highway, co- located at permanent counter Mar 2013 site
South of Illawarra Highway Dec 2005
North of Tongarra Road Jun 2011
South of Tongarra Road Jun 2011
4.2.3 AADT and Historical Trends Table 4.4 shows the annual average daily traffic volumes at the four count sites. The traffic volumes have generally been rising steadily with linear growth rates of approximately 1.5% per annum. Table 4.4: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) Volumes
Growth Location (Princes Highway) 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 p.a.
North of Illawarra Highway 44,635 48,648 48,842 49,507 55,976 61,606 1.9%
South of Illawarra Highway 37,869 41,413 41,595 1.7%
North of Tongarra Rd 30,152 27,835 34,103 35,063 33,972 36,300 1.8%
South of Tongarra Rd 40,689 31,749 38,290 40,210 40,404 42,564 1.1%
4.2.4 Existing Traffic Flows Table 4.5 shows the peak traffic volume for weekdays and weekends at the three count stations with recent data available.
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Table 4.5: Peak Hour Traffic Data
Maximum Peak Hour Flow (veh/hr) Location (Princes Highway) Survey Date Weekday Weekend Northbound Southbound Northbound Southbound
North of Illawarra Highway Mar 2013 3000 3200 2900 2700
North of Tongarra Rd Jul 2011 1800 1900 2000 1600
South of Tongarra Rd Jul 2011 1900 2200 2200 2000
4.2.5 Seasonal Variations Data from the permanent count station north of the Illawarra Highway near Macquarie Rivulet shows there is some seasonal variation in traffic volumes. The weekly volumes can vary by approximately 25% throughout the year. Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4 shows the seasonal variations that existed between 2006 and 2007.
2006 Weekly Traffic Volumes
200000 190000 180000 170000 160000 150000
(Veh/week) 140000
Weekly Volume Volume Weekly 130000 120000 03/2006 2/01/2006 8/05/2006 5/06/2006 3/07/2006 9/10/2006 6/11/2006 4/12/2006 16/01/2006 30/01/2006 13/02/2006 27/02/2006 13/ 27/03/2006 10/04/2006 24/04/2006 22/05/2006 19/06/2006 17/07/2006 31/07/2006 14/08/2006 28/08/2006 11/09/2006 25/09/2006 23/10/2006 20/11/2006 18/12/2006 Week Start Date
Northbound Southbound
Figure 4.3: 2006 Weekly Traffic Volume Profile
2007 Weekly Traffic Volumes
200000 190000 180000 170000 160000 150000
(Veh/week) 140000
Weekly Volume Volume Weekly 130000 120000 1/01/2007 9/04/2007 7/05/2007 4/06/2007 2/07/2007 8/10/2007 5/11/2007 3/12/2007 15/01/2007 29/01/2007 12/02/2007 26/02/2007 12/03/2007 26/03/2007 23/04/2007 21/05/2007 18/06/2007 16/07/2007 30/07/2007 13/08/2007 27/08/2007 10/09/2007 24/09/2007 22/10/2007 19/11/2007 17/12/2007 Week Start Date
Northbound Southbound
Figure 4.4: 2007 Weekly Traffic Volume Profile
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4.2.6 Daily Variations Recent traffic counts indicate that there are significant variations in traffic flows on a daily basis. Weekdays tend to follow a similar pattern with the northbound movement being the peak direction in the morning and the southbound movement being the peak direction in the evening. The Friday afternoon southbound peak movement tends to be higher than the other days presumably due to tourist traffic combining with the commuter peak period traffic. Weekend days show a different traffic pattern to the weekdays with the dominant northbound peak occurring on Sunday afternoons and the southbound peak on Saturday mornings. These weekend peaks are similar or greater in magnitude than the weekday peaks. Figure 4.5, Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7 shows the daily traffic volume profiles across the three count sites that were recorded along the study section.
Daily Variation - 07.035 - North of HW25
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000 Vehicles per Hour 500
0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fr i Sat Sun Northbound Southbound
Figure 4.5: 2013 Daily Traffic Profile – North of the Illawarra Highway
Daily Variation - 07.039 - North of Tongarra Rd
2500
2000
1500
1000
Axel Pairs perAxel Hour Pairs 500
0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fr i Sat Sun Northbound Southbound
Figure 4.6: 2011 Daily Traffic Profile – North of Tongarra Road
Daily Variation - 07.040 - South of Tongarra Rd
2500
2000
1500
1000
Axel Pairs perAxel Hour Pairs 500
0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fr i Sat Sun Northbound Southbound Figure 4.7: 2011 Daily Traffic Profile – South of Tongarra Road
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4.2.7 Freight Transport The Princes Highway / Princes Motorway carries a significant number of heavy vehicles. It is classified as a B-double route between Wollongong and Nowra. Classification data is only available for the count site north of the Illawarra Highway (November 2008) and is shown in Table 4.6. Some of these vehicles would leave or join the Princes Motorway at the Illawarra Highway, subsequently the proportion of heavy vehicles south of the Illawarra Highway is likely to vary from these values. Table 4.6: Heavy Vehicle Proportions
Peak hour Volume (Nov 2008) Vehicle Category Austroads AM Peak Proportion PM Peak Proportion Weekend Peak Proportion Vehicle Class Passenger vehicles Northbound Southbound (%) Northbound Southbound (%) Northbound Southbound (%)
1 & 2 2582 1681 90.7% 1747 2781 91.5% 2078 2102 95.0%
Large Rigid Vehicles
3,4,5,6 & 7 155 153 6.5% 159 165 6.5% 115 85 4.5%
Semi B-Double Vehicles
8,9,10,11 & 12 63 66 2.8% 43 55 2.0% 7 13 0.5%
4.3 EXISTING TRAVEL TIMES
4.3.1 Travel Speeds Travel time surveys have been undertaken along the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway through the study area. Northbound travel speeds in the AM commuter peak are significantly lower than the speed limit between Creamery Road and the Illawarra Highway. Southbound travel speeds in the PM commuter peak are poor between Mallee Street and Creamery Road. The poor travel speed sections are highlighted in red. Travel time surveys were undertaken in 2013 (13-14 March, 8am to 9am and 5pm to 6pm) specifically for this project. Table 4.7 to Table 4.9 show the results for these surveys. Table 4.7: 2013 Northbound Travel Speeds
Average Travel Speed (km/h) Location (Princes Highway) Speed Limit (km/h) AM PM
Lake Entrance Rd to 60 km/h zone 62 69 80 60 km/h zone to Tongarra Rd 44 36 60 Tongarra Rd to Creamery Rd 37 36 60 Creamery Rd to Airport Rd 31 36 70 Airport Rd to Mallee St 34 57 70 Mallee St to Illawarra Highway 26 47 70 Illawarra Highway to on ramp from Haywards Bay 80 85 100
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Table 4.8: 2013 Southbound Travel Speeds
Average Travel Speed (km/h) Speed Limit Location (Princes Highway) (km/h) AM PM On ramp from Haywards Bay to 70 km/h zone 83 84 100 70 km/h zone to Illawarra Highway 66 65 70 Illawarra Highway to Mallee St 61 46 70 Mallee St to Airport Rd 46 35 70 Airport Rd to Creamery Rd 41 37 70 Creamery Rd to Tongarra Rd 48 47 60 Tongarra Rd to Lake Entrance Rd 58 65 70
Table 4.9: Route Travel Time (Northbound Oak Flats Interchange Exit Ramp to Northbound Dapto (Tallawarra Interchange) Exit Ramp)
Northbound Travel Time Southbound Travel Time Period (mins) (mins)
2013 AM 9min 27s 7min 27s
2013 PM 8min 37s 7min 37s
Additional travel time surveys were undertaken during the 2013 southbound Easter holiday peak period (28 March 2013). Table 4.10 shows the average results for the worst two consecutive runs in this survey. The average route travel time for this survey approximately doubles that of a typical peak period in the southbound direction. This demonstrates the sensitive nature of this road section and the little remaining traffic capacity that exists. Table 4.10: 2013 Southbound Easter PM Peak Travel Speeds Average Travel Speed Limit Location Speed (km/h) (km/h) On ramp from Haywards Bay to 70 km/h zone 26 100 70 km/h zone to Illawarra Highway 17 70 Illawarra Highway to Mallee St 19 70 Mallee St to Airport Rd 48 70 Airport Rd to Creamery Rd 21 70 Creamery Rd to Tongarra Rd 52 60 Tongarra Rd to Lake Entrance Rd 41 70
The travel time data suggests that the extent of delays have been gradually increasing with average travel speeds reducing and travel times generally increasing. The Easter holiday period contained a noticeable reduction in average travel speeds compared to the typical weekday peak periods.
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4.4 STRATEGIC TRANSPORT MODELLING
4.4.1 Approach The Wollongong and Shellharbour Strategic Transport model (WOLSH) was used for assessing the traffic benefits for this project. The WOLSH model is a large area model replicating region-wide travel conditions. The model was subsequently re-validated to local conditions within the immediate study area. The detailed technical transport model re-validation report and accompanying technical note is included within Attachment B. For further reference, the re-validated model for the local area is termed as the ‘CURRENT YEAR’ model throughout the remainder of this report. To measure the performance of each of the model scenarios tested the following model attributes were reported on: . Traffic Volumes; . Travel Times; and . Level of Service. Examples of the outputs for each of these measures are included within Attachment C, D, E and F. Level of Service is a common measure of effectiveness adopted for transport related studies. The criteria typically adopted for WOLSH model reporting is seen in Table 4.11. It is consistent with Austroad and the Highway Capacity Manual level of service criteria. Table 4.11: Level of Service Criteria – Mid-block Sections Road Section LOS AustRoads Description (vehicles per lane per hour) Forced flow. The amount of traffic approaching a point exceeds that which can pass it. Flow break- LOS F 900-1700 downs occur, and queuing and delays occur. Traffic volumes are at or close to capacity and there is virtually no freedom to select desired speed LOS E and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. Flow is unstable and minor disturbances within the traffic 720-1360 stream will cause break- downs in operation. Approaching unstable flow where all drivers are severely restricted in their freedom to select desired LOS D speed and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience is poor 585-1105 and small increases in traffic flow will cause operational problems. Stable flow but most drivers are restricted to some extent in their freedom to select their desired speed and LOS C to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience has declined 450-850 noticeably. Stable flow where drivers still have reasonable freedom to select their desired speed and to LOS B manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience is less than LOS A. Not Applicable Free flow in which drivers are virtually unaffected by the presence of others in the traffic stream. LOS A Freedom to select desired speeds and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream is extremely high and the general level of comfort and convenience is excellent.
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4.4.2 Model Performance
Traffic Volumes Figure 4.8 shows the AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes extracted from the current year model.
Traffic Volumes AM Peak PM Peak
2892 2208 2092 3088
1663 1941
2015 1556
945 610
458 1053
428 1837 447 1852
432 448 1910 1744 449 337
355 514
Figure 4.8: Current Year Model Traffic Volumes The traffic volumes in Figure 4.8 show that the traffic volumes are heavier northbound towards Wollongong and Sydney in the AM peak, with those volumes returning in the PM peak period. The traffic volumes along Tongarra Road and the East-West Link have lesser of a peak directional movement, with also substantially lower traffic volumes.
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Travel Time Figure 4.9 shows the AM and PM peak hour travel times for through traffic extracted from the current year model.
Travel Time AM Peak PM Peak
7min 34s 8min 12s
9min 43s 8min 52s
Figure 4.9: Current Year Model – Travel Times Figure 4.9 shows that the northbound travel times are currently longer than the southbound travel times. This is predominantly due to the delays experienced at the Illawarra Highway roundabout.
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Level of Service Figure 4.10 shows the AM and PM peak hour Levels of Service extracted from the current year model.
LOS AM Peak PM Peak
F E D F
D E D D
D C C E
B B D D B D B D B B
B C
Figure 4.10: Current Year Model – Level of Service The existing situation shows that the combined traffic volumes of the Illawarra Highway and the Princes Highway result in the Princes Motorway reaching capacity limitations with a level of service (LOS) E/F noticed. The Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout in the northbound direction is a cause for delays along with the southbound approach to the Tongarra Road / Illawarra Highway intersection due to traffic returning during the PM peak period.
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5. FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS WITHOUT THE PROJECT
5.1 APPROACH The assessment of the ‘future traffic conditions without the project’ scenario considers both the outputs from the Strategic Transport Model and a ‘First Principles’ assessment of the intersection performance into the future.
Design Year The 2036+ WOLSH Model includes full development of the adjacent land uses as currently permitted by the Wollongong LEP. To create a ‘future year’ (2046) scenario the WOLSH 2036+ model was adopted with 10 years of background through traffic growth applied. This model is termed throughout this report as the ‘FUTURE YEAR’ model.
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5.2 STRATEGIC TRANSPORT MODELLING – TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE
Traffic Volumes Figure 5.1 shows the AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes extracted from the future year model.
Traffic Volumes AM Peak PM Peak
4815 2130 2849 4653
1765 2964
3028 2165
1580 730
779 1467
773 1842 1020 2766
1316 2828 819 1631
686 767
518 846
Figure 5.1: Future Year Model (No Project) - Traffic Volumes The traffic volumes in Figure 5.1 show that the traffic volumes have increased along the Princes Highway and Princes Motorway sections. With the main north-south corridor containing very high traffic volumes, cross roads such as Tongarra Road and East-West Link have substantially increased in use.
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Travel Time Figure 5.2 shows the AM and PM peak hour travel times for through traffic extracted from the future year model.
Travel Time AM Peak PM Peak
8min 17s 23min 31s
43min 52s 14min 24s
Figure 5.2: Future Year Model (No Project) – Travel Times Figure 5.2 shows that the northbound travel time in the morning peak period is extremely high, with travel times forecast to be between 40-45 minutes to travel through the study section. The southbound evening peak travel times also increased substantially with the average travel time increasing to 20-25 minutes.
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Level of Service Figure 5.3 shows the AM and PM peak hour Levels of Service extracted from the future year model.
LOS AM Peak PM Peak
F E F F
E F F E
F D D F
D E E F
F F D D C E
F D
Figure 5.3: Future Year Model (No Project) – Level of Service Figure 5.3 shows that many of the roads in the study area will have failed under a ‘do nothing’ approach. Many of the lower order roads such as Tongarra Road and East-West Link attract a large portion of the additional traffic which results in these roads having a much poorer level of service compared to current year conditions. Overall, the above performance values clearly demonstrate the need to provide the proposed bypass before this timeframe.
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5.3 FIRST PRINCIPLES ASSESSMENT – TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE
5.3.1 Methodology A high level traffic capacity assessment has been completed to broadly understand the likely capacity implications over the next 25 years. Whilst typically traffic analysis are based on peak hour congestion, given the level of congestion within the study area it is helpful to look beyond the commuter peak throughout the day where there is and is likely to have increased growth where there are significant levels of congestion. The high level ‘first principles’ assessment completed as part of this report investigates the likely spread of congestion that is likely to occur across a typical business day or typical weekend. The simplified methodology is based on the maximum traffic volume that the bottlenecks can accommodate (capacity) in an hour compared to the number of vehicles (volume) likely to want to travel on this section of road. This assessment has been undertaken on the worst movement of the intersections or bottlenecks. The resultant output is a volume to capacity ratio figure that has been historically used to determine the operating condition of a road section. By way of example, at the Creamery Road intersection, the traffic signals operate on a 100 second cycle during the peak period. The main southbound movement obtains 55 seconds each cycle resulting in 55% of the total time. The theoretical capacity of a traffic lane is 1,800 veh/hr, and as there are two approach lanes, the theoretical capacity is 55% of 3,600 veh/hr which is approximately 2,000 vehicles per hour. This theoretical calculation is further supported the maximum peak 15 minute count data of 500 vehicles, which equates to the same value of 2,000 vehicles per hour. The same approach was taken for each of the key ‘bottlenecks’ along the Princes Highway corridor. The assessment methodology is consistent with methodologies for capacity assessment at signalised intersections as outlined in Austroads Guide to Traffic Management Part 3: Traffic Studies and Analysis (April 2013), Section 6.4.2.
5.3.2 Key Junctions Assessed The locations assessed using the ‘first principles’ assessments were: . Southbound Merge between the Princes Highway and the Princes Motorway (assessment methodology modified for a freeway merge, with the outer lane capacity reduced to consider merging impacts); . Northbound Approach to the Illawarra Highway and Princes Highway roundabout (note the capacity fluctuates based on the circulating flow); . Northbound Approach to Airport Road intersection; . Southbound Approach to Creamery Road intersection; and . Northbound Approach to Tongarra Road intersection. The assessment is based on the current traffic intersection layouts.
5.3.3 Operating Conditions Criteria The criteria adopted for the operating condition of the Princes Highway at the various nominated locations is shown in Table 5.1 below. It is consistent with the level of service descriptors specified in Austroads Guide to Traffic Management Part 3 – Traffic Studies and Analysis (April, 2013), Section 3.2.2.
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Table 5.1: Operating Condition Criteria Volume to Capacity Ratio Delay (seconds per Operating Lower Upper vehicle per Conditions intersection) Free Flowing 0.00 0.30 <14 Light Traffic 0.30 0.55 15 to 28 Moderate Traffic 0.55 0.75 29 to 42 Heavy Traffic 0.75 0.90 43 to 56 Flow Breakdown 0.90 1.00 57 to 70 Major Congestion 1.00 100.00 >70
Additional definition of each of the Operating Condition levels as described in Austroads is listed below:
Free Flowing A condition of free flow in which individual drivers are virtually unaffected by the presence of others in the traffic stream. Freedom to select desired speeds and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream is extremely high, and the general level of comfort and convenience provided is excellent.
Light Traffic
In the zone of stable flow where drivers still have reasonable freedom to select their desired speed and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience is a little less than with 'free flowing' conditions
Moderate Traffic
Also in the zone of stable flow, but most drivers are restricted to some extent in their freedom to select their desired speed and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience declines noticeably at this level.
Heavy Traffic
Close to the limit of stable flow and approaching unstable flow. All drivers are severely restricted in their freedom to select their desired speed and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience is poor, and small increases in traffic flow will generally cause operational problems.
Flow Breakdown
Traffic volumes are at or close to capacity, and there is virtually no freedom to select desired speeds or to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. Flow is unstable and minor disturbances within the traffic stream will cause breakdown.
Major Congestion
In the zone of forced flow, where the amount of traffic approaching the point under consideration exceeds that which can pass it. Flow breakdown occurs, and queuing and delays result.
Growth Rate A growth rate of 1.9% per annum in traffic demand was adopted for this assessment. It is based on the historical growth in traffic noticed along the Princes Motorway north of the Illawarra Highway over the past 10 years. This growth rate is reflective of the actual demand for housing and growth associated with this road section. Although it is noted that the traffic growth within the study area may change from historical growth rates this assessment has been undertaken as a good approximation of the possible future impacts of increased traffic in the future.
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5.3.4 Princes Highway Southbound Merge with the Princes Motorway When entry ramps are too close together, or entry ramps are not of suitable length it affects the ability for entering or exiting traffic to merge or diverge from the motorway without affecting the capacity of the through travel lanes. Figure 5.4 shows entry and exit ramps within the study area that have short merge lengths and as such can cause delays to the through and merging traffic.
Princes Yallah Road Haywards Bay Haywards Bay Highway Entry Ramp Entry Ramp Entry Ramp to Southbound Northbound Southbound Illawarra Merge with Highway Princes Mwy Weave
110m
120m 80m 300m
Figure 5.4: Princes Motorway Merge Lengths Of particular concern is the major merge movement between the southbound Princes Highway approach for traffic from Dapto and the Princes Motorway through traffic. During peak holiday periods this merge area and more recently during commuter peaks this merge has been known to reach capacity causing congestion. The localised growth within the surrounding area will also exacerbate this issue. Table 5.2 shows the operating conditions of the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway merge that is expected to occur across a typical weekday into future years. Table 5.2 shows that a substantial level of congestion is forecast to occur with delays becoming more noticeable by 2015-16 with delays expected to extend across most hours of the day by 2036.
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Table 5.2: Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Merge (Southbound) – Capacity Analysis WEEKDAY YEAR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0000-0100 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0100-0200 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0200-0300 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0300-0400 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0400-0500 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0500-0600 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0600-0700 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0700-0800 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0800-0900 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.17 0900-1000 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.89 1000-1100 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 1100-1200 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 1200-1300 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 1300-1400 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1400-1500 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.32 1500-1600 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.46 1600-1700 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.45 1.48 1700-1800 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.47 1.50 1800-1900 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1900-2000 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 2000-2100 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 2100-2200 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 2200-2300 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 2300-2400 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26
5.3.5 Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway Roundabout The Illawarra Highway roundabout signals only operate within peak periods to control the access to the intersection, and remain switched off for most part of the day. During the morning and evening peak periods they are activated when the northbound approach queue extends beyond 150m. The signals are turned off when the queue dissipates or if the queue on either the Illawarra Highway or southbound right turn approach exceeds a similar queue distance. The average red signal time for the southbound right turn is approximately 40 seconds and the number of occasions the red signal is activated during each one hour peak period is approximately as follows: . AM Peak - 30 occasions. . PM Peak - 35 occasions. . Weekend Peak - 20 occasions. The northbound red signal is generally activated only a small number of occasions during the AM peak and on no occasions during the PM peak or Weekend peak period. The average red signal time recorded for the northbound approach when activated is 35 seconds. Due to the competing southbound right turn volume (which has right of way at the roundabout) the northbound approach has limited capacity. In the AM peak the southbound right turn is lower than the PM peak. Subsequently the capacity for through traffic at the roundabout in the northbound direction is approximately 1,900 vehicles per hour in the AM peak and 1,550 vehicles per hour in the PM peak. The northbound through traffic volumes often exceeds these traffic capacity thresholds and as such result in significant delays for northbound traffic. The southbound through traffic ‘bypasses’ the roundabout, and as such is not affected by the operations of this intersection, unless the southbound right turn lane is full of cars waiting to turn right beyond the designated two storage lanes (see Figure 5.5 below). This effectively reduces the southbound through travel movement down to one lane.
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Only one lane available for through traffic due to right turn capacity shortfall
Major queues northbound due to heavy right turn
Figure 5.5: Risk of Right Turn Queue Impacts Whilst the signalised roundabout aims to remove the occurrence of right turners queuing back to block a through travel lane, the forecast increased in localised development and high volume of northbound through traffic will result in it being difficult to prevent major queuing in both directions. With peak hour ‘through traffic’ volumes on the Princes Motorway at Haywards Bay currently ranging between 2,000-3,000 vehicles per hour in each direction, the through lane impacts described in Figure 5.5 would result in a rapid formation of queues potentially extending extensively in the future. Table 5.3: Princes Highway / Illawarra Highway Roundabout – Capacity Analysis WEEKDAY YEAR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0000-0100 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0100-0200 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0200-0300 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0300-0400 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0400-0500 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0500-0600 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.59 0600-0700 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 0700-0800 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.24 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.36 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.47 1.49 0800-0900 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.57 1.60 1.63 1.66 1.69 0900-1000 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1000-1100 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1100-1200 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.15 1200-1300 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1300-1400 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.24 1.26 1400-1500 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.39 1500-1600 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.51 1.54 1.57 1.60 1600-1700 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.45 1.48 1.51 1700-1800 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.46 1800-1900 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1900-2000 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 2000-2100 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 2100-2200 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 2200-2300 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 2300-2400 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 The ‘first principles’ capacity analysis provides a further detailed understanding of this impact potential. Table 5.3 shows that the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout is expected to create substantial congestion effects for most part of the day by 2024. Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page 47
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5.3.6 Creamery Road Intersection The Creamery Road intersection currently operates with three signal phases. The northbound through traffic movement operates in two of the three signal phases whilst the southbound movement only operates in one of the three phases. The signalised intersection currently only has two through traffic lanes on the southbound approach to the signals with an additional turn pocket for left turn movements into Creamery Road (refer Figure 5.6).
Figure 5.6: Princes Highway / Creamery Road Intersection Based on the existing signal split times, the southbound movement is allocated approximately 55s in a 100s cycle. This equates to 55% of the cycle. Therefore the estimated maximum capacity on this approach is approximately 2,000 vehicles per hour. This correlates well with data obtained for the intersection that identified the maximum peak movement was 500 vehicles in a 15 minute period. As the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout is bypassed in the southbound direction, the Creamery Road intersection is a problematic bottleneck intersection in the southbound direction. In addition, the parking manoeuvring that occurs to the immediate south of the intersection to support the Albion Park Rail Town Centre is also likely to exacerbating this issue Table 5.4 shows the level of congestion expected to occur at this intersection into the future under the assumption that the proposed bypass does not eventuate.
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Table 5.4: Princes Highway / Creamery Road Intersection – Capacity Analysis WEEKDAY YEAR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0000-0100 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0100-0200 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0200-0300 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0300-0400 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0400-0500 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0500-0600 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0600-0700 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0700-0800 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0800-0900 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 0900-1000 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.93 1000-1100 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 1100-1200 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1200-1300 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1300-1400 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.15 1400-1500 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.24 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.33 1.36 1.38 1500-1600 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.53 1600-1700 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.52 1.55 1700-1800 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.57 1800-1900 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1900-2000 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 2000-2100 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 2100-2200 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 2200-2300 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 2300-2400 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 Table 5.4 shows that the traffic is moreso impacted in the afternoon in the southbound direction, when the traffic volumes are higher. By 2036, the intersection is expected to generate significant levels of congestion for most parts of the day.
5.3.7 Airport Road Intersection The Airport Road intersection currently operates with three signal phases. The southbound through traffic movement operates in two of the three signal phases (ie has a green light for through traffic when the right turners have a green light into Airport Road) whilst the northbound movement only operates in one of the three phases. The signalised intersection currently only has two lanes on the northbound approach to the signals. Based on the existing signal split times, the northbound movement is allocated 55s in a 100s cycle. This equates to 55% of the cycle, or 55% green time for the northbound traffic. Therefore the estimated maximum number of vehicles that can travel through the intersection on this approach is approximately 2,000 vehicles per hour. On this basis, it can be seen that the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway intersection is a bottleneck along this road section, however should any improvements be made to increase the northbound capacity at that location, it won’t be too much longer that the Airport Road intersection will present itself as a congestion bottleneck. In addition, should the Illawarra Airport increase its operations, it is very likely that the Airport Road intersection will become the bottleneck in the AM peak along this road section. Figure 5.7 shows the Airport Road intersection configuration, whilst Table5.5 shows the congestion levels forecast into the future.
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Figure 5.7: Princes Highway / Airport Road Intersection Table 5.5: Princes Highway / Airport Road Intersection – Capacity Analysis WEEKDAY YEAR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0000-0100 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0100-0200 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0200-0300 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0300-0400 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0400-0500 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0500-0600 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0600-0700 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 0700-0800 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.33 1.36 0800-0900 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.42 1.45 0900-1000 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1000-1100 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 1100-1200 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 1200-1300 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 1300-1400 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 1400-1500 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1500-1600 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.18 1600-1700 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1700-1800 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1800-1900 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 1900-2000 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 2000-2100 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 2100-2200 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 2200-2300 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 2300-2400 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16
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5.3.8 Tongarra Road Intersection The Tongarra Road intersection currently operates with three signal phases. The southbound through traffic movement operates in two of the three signal phases whilst the northbound movement only operates in one of the three phases. The signalised intersection currently only has two lanes on the northbound approach to the signals but contains a lengthy left turn and slip lane for left turning traffic to Tongarra Road (refer Figure 5.8).
Figure 5.8: Princes Highway / Tongarra Road Intersection Based on the existing signal split times, the northbound movement is allocated 55s in a 100s cycle. This equates to 55% of the cycle. Therefore the estimated maximum capacity on this approach is approximately 2,000 vehicles per hour. In a similar manner to the Airport Road intersection, the Tongarra Road intersection has the potential to become a bottleneck along this road section. With the impending growth at Calderwood and the travel relationship with Shellharbour Town Centre, the need to increase signal times for the side street is likely to reduce the capacity for the northbound through movement in the future years at this location further increasing the congestion at the intersection. Table 5.6 shows the levels of congestion forecast into the future should the proposed bypass not eventuate.
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Table 5.6: Princes Highway / Tongarra Road Intersection – Capacity Analysis WEEKDAY YEAR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0000-0100 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0100-0200 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0200-0300 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0300-0400 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0400-0500 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0500-0600 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0600-0700 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0700-0800 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 0800-0900 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 0900-1000 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 1000-1100 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 1100-1200 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 1200-1300 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 1300-1400 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.73 1400-1500 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 1500-1600 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.90 1600-1700 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 1700-1800 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.88 1800-1900 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.64 1900-2000 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 2000-2100 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 2100-2200 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 2200-2300 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 2300-2400 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12
5.3.9 Summary of Findings The ‘first principles’ assessment reveals that substantial congestion is expected at the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout, southbound Princes Highway / Princes Motorway merge and the Creamery Road / Princes Highway intersection in the next 5 years with the majority of the remaining intersections showing substantial congestion over the next 15 years. The extent of the congestion is likely to occur substantially beyond the peak hour periods, spreading for most parts of the day. It should be noted that the above assessment is based on a linear growth in traffic and does not consider the re-distribution effects with more traffic likely to use Tongarra Road and East-West Link (as shown in the strategic transport modelling). Additional traffic on these roads will bring forward impacts to the Oak Flats Interchange and the Tongarra Road / Princes Highway intersection. These poor performance measures are noticed in the Level of Service included in Figure 5.3.
5.4 OTHER IMPACTS The impact to the transport network extends beyond that of traffic congestion alone. Under the ‘no bypass’ scenario a number of other noticeable impacts will exist such as: . high productivity vehicles will be delayed, affecting the region’s economy; . large / heavy vehicles will continue to interact with local passenger vehicles; . extreme delays will be experienced during long weekends and holiday periods which may begin to impact on the region’s economy through domestic tourist opting to travel elsewhere; and . the travel time reliability through the study section will rapidly deteriorate.
5.5 ROAD SAFETY As seen in the crash trend identified in Figure 4.1, as traffic (and congestion) continues to increase the safety performance of the study section is also likely to diminish. Driver frustrations will increase, particularly in a regional environment where there is an expectation to travel more freely than that of a city environment. Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page 52
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Both the Albion Park and Albion Park Rail centre’s generate a significant number of pedestrian and cycle movements, of which a large portion relate to school related trips. These movements will have a greater exposure to higher levels of traffic and motorists with greater frustrations. The corridor attracts a large proportion of heavy vehicle movements, with a combination of local and longer distant destinations. These wide varieties of trip purposes, travel modes, and vehicle types contributes to an environment that will be difficult to maintain satisfactory safety levels particularly considering the future increase in travel demand. With the Princes Motorway to the north and Princes Highway to the south being of a higher standard either side of this complex section of road (where large volumes of traffic are entering and exiting the system) it will also be difficult to manage the speed differential between longer distant through trips and shorter distant ‘hop on’ / ‘hop off’ trips (ie trips from Shellharbour to the Princes Highway, Dapto, etc).
5.6 PUBLIC TRANSPORT The NSW government is encouraging all future developments to consider sustainable transport outcomes. Strategies that rely on public transport use will be difficult to realise, as the levels of congestion forecast will result in unreliable service times and inefficient services. More specifically if the proposed bypass was not constructed, the following impacts are likely to eventuate: . bus service travel times will increase due to slower travel speeds and increased intersection delays; . more frequent service disruptions due to traffic incidents and congestion in the project area; . reduced levels of safety for buses having to exit and re-enter the Princes Highway under heavy congestions as well as the safety of the connecting pedestrians trips to the services where in most cases they will be required to cross the Highway at least once (ie either inbound or outbound); . reduced pedestrian amenity at the bus stops while waiting for services.
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6. THE PROPOSED BYPASS PROJECT
6.1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES Key objectives for the project that directly relate to traffic planning outcomes are as follows: . Support regional development, ensuring that the project caters for access and other needs of future development by increasing the capacity and providing key access points on the route. . Reduce the conflict between through and local traffic and improve local accessibility by providing additional capacity for the through movements and key access points . Support key freight movements in the corridor. . Improve road safety and reduce the risk of crashes by reducing the number of conflicting traffic movements at intersections. . Reducing and controlling the number of accesses. . Minimise disruption to road users resulting from planned and unplanned events by reducing the number of crashes. . Support road based public transport, pedestrians and cyclists to meet identified demands where practicable. . Optimise the efficiency and improve the consistency of travel times as well as improving the reliability of the Princes Highway corridor for the benefit of regional traffic, between Yallah and Oak Flats. . Provide a value for money and fit for purpose upgrade of the Princes Highway at Albion Park Rail.
6.2 PROJECT DETAILS The project details as included in the traffic modelling assessment are shown in the following figures. Due to the size of the study area, these figures have been separated into four areas, covering the Tallawarra Interchange, future Tongarra Road Interchange, future Croome Road interchange and Oak Flats interchange. All sections between these interchanges are proposed to contain two lanes each way signposted at 100kph. Figure 6.1 to Figure 6.4 shows the project inclusions for the respective interchange locations.
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TALLAWARRA INTERCHANGE
Proposed Bypass Entry Ramp
Service Road connecting Proposed Bypass Exit Proposed Bypass Ramp and Princes Exit Ramp Highway Entry Ramp
Roundabouts
Proposed Bypass Exit Ramp
Proposed Bypass Motorway Exit Ramp Service Road connecting Proposed Bypass Exit Ramp and Princes Highway Entry Ramp
Figure 6.1: Project Inclusions – Tallawarra Interchange
TONGARRA ROAD INTERCHANGE
Closure of the Illawarra Highway
Existing Terry Street / Tongarra Road intersection
Figure 6.2: Project Inclusions – Tongarra Road Interchange
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CROOME ROAD INTERCHANGE
Figure 6.3: Project Inclusions – Croome Road Interchange
OAK FLATS INTERCHANGE
Existing Princes Highway Exit Ramp
Existing Princes Through Lanes Existing Princes Existing Princes Highway Entry Highway Entry Ramp Ramp
Proposed Bypass Exit Ramp
Existing Princes Highway Exit Ramp Proposed Bypass Entry Ramp
Figure 6.4: Project Inclusions – Oak Flats Interchange
6.3 PROPERTY ACCESS The proposed bypass will result in the need to consider future access arrangements to existing properties. The project is expected to contain restricted access. Access provisions for affected properties will need to be reviewed during future stages of the design.
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7. FUTURE YEAR PERFORMANCE OF THE PROJECT
7.1 MODEL LIMITATIONS The modelling process does not account for driver behaviour. The model does consider a drivers’ willingness to remain on a high quality highway and will opt for the driver to always take the shortest possible route (by a weighted combination of time and distance). Experience in the Sydney Metropolitan Region is suggesting however that motorists willingness to choose a particular route because of distance is diminishing, with a greater emphasis placed on travel time. For instance, a motorist will use the M7 Westlink to travel from Wollongong to Newcastle if there is a time saving, and will be less influenced by the fact that it is longer. The WOLSH Model was built on the basis of driver behaviour across the Wollongong and Shellharbour Local Government areas. As the study section is part of a longer distant highway system, it is unlikely that a motorist will opt to deviate from the proposed bypass onto the Princes Highway and back onto Princes Motorway. As such, the use of the WOLSH Model with route choice based on ‘time only’ was also given consideration. The use of ‘time and distance’ factors presents a ‘lower limit’ of bypass use, whilst the use of ‘time only’ is expected to provide an ‘upper limit’ of bypass use.
7.2 TRAFFIC SCENARIOS As outlined in Section 7.1 the traffic scenarios considered as ‘lower’ and ‘upper’ limit to provide a range of outputs are: . Scenario 1: The original 10.6km bypass route, using the existing validated WOLSH time and distance model costs; . Scenario 2: The original 10.6km bypass route, using the WOLSH ‘time only’ model costs; The following sections provide a summary of the outputs from the WOLSH model for the two scenarios tested. An example of the model outputs is provided below: . Attachment C - Option Assessment Technical Note; . Attachment D – Volume Plot; . Attachment E – Level of Service Plot; and . Attachment F - Select Link Plot.
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7.3 TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE
7.3.1 Future Year Model – WOLSH Time and Distance Model Costs
Traffic Volumes Figure 7.1 shows the AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes extracted from the future year model (WOLSH Time and Distance Costs).
Traffic Volumes AM Peak PM Peak
853 2375 2685 1156
1593 1838
1850 1678
638 1755 130 908 2011 1051
1370 973 1438 542 433 490 1253 1289
268 1244 1575 817 1804 898
Figure 7.1: Future Year Model Traffic Volumes – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs The traffic volumes in the northbound direction are generally higher than that noticed in the southbound direction. This is partially due to the increased delays experienced for traffic along the Princes Highway in the northbound direction The main contributor though is that the strategic model does not have an entry ramp from the Princes Highway to the Princes Motorway for the entire study area section in the southbound direction. The peak hour volume could increase by 500 vehicles for the southbound direction along the Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page 58
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proposed bypass route. The modelled volume over Tongarra Interchange is 130 vehicles in the peak hour, which does not reflect the demand that is likely to exist (hence the need to also consider ‘time only’ model costs). The forecast traffic volumes to the south of the Tongarra Road Interchange suggest that a four lane, two- way carriageway will be sufficient to meet future year traffic demands. North of the Tongarra Road Interchange the traffic volumes suggest a six lane, two way carriageway may be necessary.
Travel Times Figure 7.2 shows the AM and PM peak hour travel times for through traffic extracted from the future year model (WOLSH Time and Distance Costs).
Travel Time AM Peak PM Peak
8min 13s 9min 5s
9min 28s 9min 6s
6min 29s 6min 36s 6min 38s 6min 31s
Figure 7.2: Future Year Model Travel Time – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs The model outputs show that the travel time along the proposed bypass route is lower than the Princes Highway route option with a two to three minute travel time saving in each direction. Even with these travel Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page 59
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time savings however, the model is still assigning traffic to the Princes Highway due to the influence of the additional 3km required to be travelled.
Level of Service (LOS) Figure 7.3 shows the AM and PM peak levels of service traffic for the future year model (WOLSH Time and Distance Costs).
LOS AM Peak PM Peak
A E
E C
D E E D
D E E A E C C E A A D C C C
A C C B
D B
Figure 7.3: Future Year Model Level of Service – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs Figure 7.3 shows that the proposed bypass is expected to operate during the peak periods at good levels of service except for the section north of the Tongarra Road Interchange. Higher traffic volumes are noticed in this section in the peak traffic movement direction which is likely to result in slightly lower travel speeds. Consideration may be given to introduce an additional traffic lane over this section between the Tongarra Road Interchange and Tallawarra Interchange to resolve this issue.
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The existing Princes Highway and Tongarra Road sections are expected to operate at slightly worse levels of service than that currently experienced. It should be noted that the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout is removed in the project case, hence the worsened sections related to the existing signalised intersections between Airport Road and Colden Drive signals.
Through Traffic Proportions Figure 7.4 shows the AM and PM peak hour through traffic proportions from the future year model (WOLSH Time and Distance Costs).
(%) Through Traffic AM Peak PM Peak
384 (77%) 155 (14%)
176 (15%) 81 (21%)
115 (23%) 932 (86%) 962 (85%) 298 (79%)
Figure 7.4: Future Year Model Through Traffic Proportions – WOLSH Time and Distance Costs Figure 7.4 shows that of there is approximately 1100-1200 vph in the peak direction and 400-600 vph in the off-peak direction that are ‘through traffic’, driving from the Princes Highway south of the Oak Flats Interchange to/from the Princes Motorway north of the Tallawarra Interchange.
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It can be seen that of this ‘through traffic’ approximately 80-85% opt to use the bypass in the northbound direction to avoid delays along the Princes Highway, whilst 15-20% are expected to deviate to the Princes Highway before returning to the Princes Motorway. In the southbound direction, approximately the same proportion of traffic opts to use the proposed bypass in the PM peak. In the AM peak however, the traffic volumes are substantially lower, and as such, the proportion of traffic willing to stay on the bypass is shown to be substantially less, with 75-80% of traffic expected to deviate onto the Princes Highway, before returning to the Princes Highway section south of the Oak Flats Interchange. As previously explained, this is unlikely to occur, with the motorists’ lower willingness to divert from a high quality freeway, which is not given consideration in the model.
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7.3.2 Future Year Model – WOLSH Time Only Model Costs
Traffic Volumes Figure 7.5 shows the AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes extracted from the future year model (WOLSH Time Costs only).
Traffic Volumes AM Peak PM Peak
1373 2607 3045 1493
1073 1606
1496 1318
1045 386 1503 634 557 1299
1791 566 912 794 846 456 905 1414
937 1850 1591 913
2495 1326
Figure 7.5: Future Year Model Traffic Volumes – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.5 shows a substantial increase in use of the proposed bypass compared to the ‘time and distance’ model outputs. The southbound bypass volumes are slightly lower than the northbound volumes, but this is due to there being no on-ramps from the Princes Highway onto the bypass in this direction. The traffic volumes on the Princes Highway reduce to volumes similar to and even less than that currently experienced along the Princes Highway.
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Travel Times Figure 7.6 shows the AM and PM peak hour travel times for through traffic extracted from the future year model (WOLSH Time Costs only).
Travel Time AM Peak PM Peak
7min 35s 7min 56s
9min 8s 9min 4s
6min 32s 6min 38s 6min 41s 6min 33s
Figure 7.6: Future Year Model Travel Time – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.6 shows a two and a half minute travel time saving in the northbound direction and a one minute travel time saving in the southbound direction. The travel times along the Princes Highway have reduced due to the lower traffic volumes, whilst the proposed bypass travel times have only increased by 2-3 seconds even with the additional traffic it has attracted under the ‘time only’ model costs.
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Level of Service (LOS) Figure 7.7 shows the AM and PM peak levels of service traffic for the future year model (WOLSH Time Costs only).
LOS AM Peak PM Peak
C E
F C
C D D C
B C C A D D C C A A C B C C
C C D B
E C
Figure 7.7: Future Year Model Level of Service – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.7 shows that the additional traffic attracted to the proposed bypass results in the northern section reaching LOS F during the morning peak period. The peak hour traffic volume is in excess of 3,000 vph which is likely to result in a breakdown of traffic flow and introduction of congestion. This may be able to be resolved through the introduction of an additional traffic lane over this section between the Tongarra Road Interchange and Tallawarra Interchange.
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Through Traffic Proportions Figure 7.8 shows the AM and PM peak hour through traffic proportions from the future year model (WOLSH Time Costs only).
(%) Through Traffic AM Peak PM Peak
38 (8%) 78 (7%)
176 (15%) 28 (7%)
461 (92%) 1010 (93%) 962 (85%) 351 (93%)
Figure 7.8: Future Year Model Through Traffic Proportions – WOLSH Time Costs Only Figure 7.8 shows an increased proportion of 85-95% of through traffic using the proposed bypass. This is more realistic of the likely situation that is to exist once the proposed bypass is open to traffic.
7.4 MODELLING SUMMARY The ‘time and distance’ model output shows higher traffic volumes and increased delays along the existing Princes Highway. There is a general reluctance for traffic to switch to the proposed bypass corridor mainly due to the impact of having to drive an additional 3km notwithstanding the travel time benefit is 2.5 to 3 minutes along the proposed bypass.
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Under the ‘time only’ model, only travel time is considered, with a higher proportion of traffic subsequently attracted to the proposed bypass route. The relationship between traffic volumes, travel times, through traffic proportions and level of service appear to be more balanced and realistic with the ‘time only’ model outputs. The LOS is expected to reduce from LOS E/F to LOS C/D along the Princes Highway with the proposed bypass. In additional, travel times for through traffic are expected to reduce from 20-40minutes in the peak period down to 7-9 minutes.
7.5 OTHER BENEFITS
7.5.1 Overview The proposed bypass offers a number of traffic network benefits including: . Ability to separate high productivity vehicles and local trips; . Reduction in travel times for longer distant business and freight trips; . Reduction in traffic along the parallel Shellharbour Road corridor ( 450-500vph in the northbound direction in the AM Peak and 100-150vph in the southbound direction in the PM peak) . Improvement in accessibility for local businesses; . Improvement in travel time reliability for freight, businesses and commuters; . Improvement to the amenity for the Albion Park Rail and Albion Park town centres; . Improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during wet weather (flooding); . Improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during holiday periods increasing the attractiveness for tourists.
7.5.2 Road Safety The reduction of traffic volumes along the Princes Highway will result in an overall improvement of safety within the area. The crash rate on the Princes Highway is substantially higher than what would be realised on a motorway standard road (such as the proposed bypass). The current crash rate on sections of the Princes Highway is 77 crashes per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. Based on the adjacent Princes Highway / Princes Motorway sections the proposed bypass is expected to attract only 12.5 crashes per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. This offers a 6 times level of safety improvement with the proposed bypass in place. The introduction of the bypass also enables a greater emphasis to be placed on providing safe solutions along the Princes Highway without needing to compromise through traffic capacity needs. The proposed bypass also provides an opportunity to include improved separation between local town centre and pedestrian / cycle based trips and the faster paced, longer distant, heavy vehicle and business based trips.
7.5.3 Public Transport The reduction of traffic along the Princes Highway, Tongarra Road and Station Road provides opportunities to improve bus services between future development areas and key transport nodes. Greater flexibility can also be given in locating bus stops in the centre of towns with the view of improving the local town centre amenity without concerns of compromising the ‘traffic throughput’ capacity of the corridor. It should be noted that the Princes Highway, Tongarra Road, Lake Entrance Road and Terry Street all reside on a strategic bus corridor as shown in Figure 7.9 below. The creation of the proposed bypass will enable the necessary bus priority infrastructure to support the strategic bus corridor. As congestion increases along the corridor, the level of travel time reliability will worsen, resulting in bus services becoming less attractive.
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Princes Highway Illawarra Highway
Tongarra Road
Figure 7.9: Strategic Bus Corridors
7.5.4 Place Making The reduction of traffic along the Princes Highway, through the implementation of the proposed bypass, enables local authorities to consider amenity improvements to the Albion Park and Albion Park Rail town centres. These amenity improvements can focus more greatly on pedestrian and cycle access, building built form and improving the relationship between the adjacent land use, the road and the local residential communities. Improvements to access for local businesses may also be reconsidered, with access restrictions previously placed to maximise traffic throughput along the Princes Highway corridor could be re-assessed with the proposed bypass in place.
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8. VALUE FOR MONEY
8.1 OVERVIEW A detailed economic assessment report completed for this project and is provided in Attachment H. The report documents the finding from a “high level” assessment of the economic costs and benefits of the proposed bypass project between Yallah and Oaks Flats. The economic assessment has been undertaken using analysis processes documented in the “Principles and Guidelines for Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives (March 2013)” prepared by Transport for NSW. The Wollongong and Shellharbour Strategic Transport Model (WOLSH) that was used in the traffic assessment was used in the economic assessment to obtain the travel time and travel distance benefits and impacts.
8.2 COSTS The project cost expenditure has been estimated at approximately $600 million in 2013 dollars. It should be noted that these are strategic cost estimates based on minimal design investigations. Maintenance costs associated with new proposed bypass have also been considered in the assessment.
8.3 BENEFITS The economic assessment considered both the WOLSH (Time and Distance) model outputs and WOLSH (Time Only) model outputs as two separate scenarios to provide a monetised range of benefits for the project. As discussed in Section 7, the ‘Time Only’ model assessment was considered in the economic assessment as it provides an upper limit of monetised benefits, with the “time and distance” model scenario provides a lower limit of monetised benefits. Subsequently a summary of the two scenarios were: . Scenario 1: The original 10.6km bypass route, using the existing validated WOLSH time and distance model costs; . Scenario 2: The original 10.6km bypass route, using the WOLSH ‘time only’ model costs; Quantified benefits for the project include travel time savings, vehicle operating costs, crash cost savings and the residual infrastructure value. The Illawarra Region is renowned for having roads closed due to flooding. Based on the last five years of asset management information, the Illawarra Highway has been closed for four and a half days per year due to flooding. This has an impact on the regional economy, and as such was included in the assessment. The travel time benefits due to flooding result in approximately 2- 3% of additional benefits in the future assessment year. The assessment identified significant road user benefits over the 30 year assessment period with travel time savings ranging between $1.37 billion to $1.54 billion (2013 dollars) and crash cost benefits of $11.7 million to $24.9 million (2013 dollars). Other non-tangible benefits associated with the project include: . benefits to pedestrians and cyclists; . opportunities for improved bus access along existing roads; . improvements to town centre amenity; . reduction of the number of minor crashes that is often unreported; . improvements to vehicle access to existing roads (ie potential for reduction/removal of limitation access restrictions along the existing Princes Highway). A number of sensitivity tests were completed to determine the likelihood of the project returning a benefit – cost ratio greater than 1. Sensitivity tests are normally undertaken to obtain an appreciation of the project
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benefits for a range of scenarios particularly when there is uncertainty surrounding the project costs, benefits and inflation / price rise impacts. Definitions of key assessment outputs are as follows: Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR): Calculated as the discounted benefits over the life of a project divided the discounted capital costs plus discounted operating and maintenance costs. The ratio needs to be 1 or above for the benefits to exceed the costs and hence provide an economical project. Net Present Value (NPV): The difference between the present value of benefits and the present value of costs. A positive net present value indicates that the project has economic merit. Net Present Value per dollar of capital Investment (NPVI): The overall economic return of a project in relation to its requirement for initial capital expenditure. Defined as the NPV divided by present value of the investment costs where the capital costs are those incurred to initially complete the project. The project with the highest NPVI is chosen first when there is a constraint on capital. Internal rate of return (IRR): The discount rate at which the present value of benefits equals the present value of costs. An internal rate of return greater than the discount rate indicates an economically worthwhile project. First year rate of return (FYRR): The first year rate of return (expressed as a percentage) is a measure of the benefits achieved in the first full year of a scheme's operation divided by the capital costs incurred to achieve this. The first year rate of return is typically used to determine the best start date for a scheme. Discount Rate: It measures the rate at which one wishes to sacrifice future consumption for present consumption. It is the rate at which costs and benefits in future years are discounted to express them in present values in the base year. The inflation free rate currently being used is 7%. Evaluation Period: The time frame over which the costs and benefits of a project are compared (sometimes referred to as the project life). It encompasses the initial period of the capital investment and the subsequent period over which the benefits of the project accrue. In many cases 20 years is adequate; 30 years is the maximum period usually used for road evaluation. Residual value: The residual value is a measure of the capacity of the asset to continue earning benefits after the evaluation period. The residual value is based on the economic life or useful life of the asset. Table 8.1 shows the benefit – cost assessment summary for the two scenarios tested including the sensitivity tests.
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Table 8.1: Benefit – Cost Assessment Results
SENSITIVITY TEST #1 SENSITIVITY TEST #2
4% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 10% Discount Rate +20% COST & -20% -20% COST & + 20% BENEFIT @ 7% BENEFIT @ 7% Discount Rate Discount Rate
SCENARIO 1 - ORIGINAL ALIGNMENT WOLSH TIME AND DISTANCE MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 612,630,791 $ 607,338,968 $ 604,534,586 $ 728,806,762 $ 485,871,175 BENEFITS $ 2,497,533,578 $ 1,361,851,545 $ 809,409,751 $ 1,067,743,348 $ 1,601,615,022 NPV $ 1,884,902,787 $ 754,512,577 $ 204,875,165 $ 338,936,586 $ 1,115,743,847 BCR 4.08 2.24 1.34 1.47 3.30 NPVI 3.14 1.26 0.34 0.47 2.32 FYRR 12.01% 4.98% 11.22% IRR 11.94% 9.08% 14.21%
SCENARIO 2 - ORIGINAL ALIGNMENT TIME ONLY MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 618,200,375 $ 610,881,232 $ 606,891,846 $ 733,057,478 $ 488,704,985 BENEFITS $ 2,766,705,450 $ 1,518,520,073 $ 908,733,583 $ 1,189,065,929 $ 1,783,598,894 NPV $ 2,148,505,074 $ 907,638,841 $ 301,841,737 $ 456,008,451 $ 1,294,893,909 BCR 4.48 2.49 1.50 1.62 3.65 NPVI 3.58 1.51 0.50 0.63 2.70 FYRR 14.22% 5.90% 13.29% IRR 12.80% 9.71% 15.07%
Table 8.1 shows that both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show a very positive return on investment with BCR’s ranging from 1.34 to 4.48. The assessment highlights the project’s sensitivity to distance, with Scenario 2 offering a substantial improvement in benefits. As such, consideration was subsequently given to developing a shorter alignment of the proposed bypass. The modified bypass alignment is shown in Figure 8.1. This option would impact the Croom Regional Sporting Complex. No assessment has been made of the impacts to these facilities.
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8.4 SHORTER ALIGNMENT OPTION
8.5 PROJECT DETAILS The details of the proposed shorter alignment are shown in Figure 8.1 below. The proposed bypass alignment is 700m shorter than the original alignment.
Shorter Alignment
Original Alignment
Figure 8.1: Proposed Bypass Shortened Alignment.
8.5.1 Costs The project cost estimated for the shorter alignment was approximately $550 million in 2013 dollars. It again should be noted that these are strategic cost estimates based on minimal design investigations. Furthermore, the estimate does not include impacts relating to the existing sporting complex.
8.5.2 Benefits The shorter alignment option was tested under both the WOLSH (Time and Distance cost) model outputs and the WOLSH (Time only costs) model outputs providing an ‘upper’ and ‘lower’ limit of benefits as previously discussed. Subsequently, a summary of the two scenarios were: . Scenario 3: A shorter 9.9km bypass route using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; and . Scenario 4: A shorter 9.9km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs. The assessment identified significant road user benefits over the 30 year assessment period. The shorter route offers a further 25s improvement on travel times compared to the current LEP corridor, resulting in monetised travel time savings ranging between $1.43 billion to $1.56 billion (2013 dollars). The crash cost benefits for the shorter route was between $19.2 million and $26.3 million (2013 dollars). Table 8.2 shows the results of the economic assessment for these scenarios.
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Table 8.2: Benefit – Cost Assessment Results (Shorter Alignment)
SENSITIVITY TEST #1 SENSITIVITY TEST #2
4% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 10% Discount Rate +20% COST & -20% -20% COST & + 20% BENEFIT @ 7% BENEFIT @ 7% Discount Rate Discount Rate
SCENARIO 3 - SHORT ALIGNMENT WOLSH TIME AND DISTANCE MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 563,661,643 $ 558,686,654 $ 556,007,267 $ 670,423,984 $ 446,949,323 BENEFITS $ 2,603,223,148 $ 1,430,359,969 $ 856,942,521 $ 1,119,801,104 $ 1,679,701,657 NPV $ 2,039,561,505 $ 871,673,315 $ 300,935,254 $ 449,377,120 $ 1,232,752,334 BCR 4.62 2.56 1.54 1.67 3.76 NPVI 3.70 1.58 0.55 0.68 2.79 FYRR 14.71% 6.11% 13.74% IRR 13.02% 9.87% 15.28%
SCENARIO 4 - SHORT ALIGNMENT TIME ONLY MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 567,350,798 $ 560,944,937 $ 557,467,436 $ 673,133,925 $ 448,755,950 BENEFITS $ 2,808,401,297 $ 1,547,568,961 $ 929,896,121 $ 1,210,914,867 $ 1,816,372,300 NPV $ 2,241,050,499 $ 986,624,024 $ 372,428,685 $ 537,780,942 $ 1,367,616,350 BCR 4.95 2.76 1.67 1.80 4.05 NPVI 4.06 1.79 0.68 0.81 3.10 FYRR 16.31% 6.77% 15.23% IRR 13.68% 10.35% 15.90% The results from the assessment show that the shorter alignment enhances the return on investment by approximately 10%. This warrants further consideration and investigation as the project enters its subsequent design development phases.
8.6 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SUMMARY The economic assessment for the scenarios tested for the Yallah to Oak Flats project returns a BCR range of 2.24 to 2.76 and a NPV range of $755 million to $987 million (using discount rate of 7% in 2013 dollars) with capital expenditure of approximately $600 million for the original route and $550 million for the shorter route. The assessment has identified significant road user benefits over the 30 year period from 2020-2050 with travel time savings ranging between $1.37 billion to $1.56 billion (2013 dollars) and crash cost benefits of $26.3 million to $48.6 million (2013 dollars). The benefits are somewhat reduced by the high capital costs, ongoing additional maintenance costs, as well as the forecast increase in vehicle operating costs due to the additional distance travelled (3km longer than the existing route).
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9. RECOMMENDATIONS Bitzios Consulting were commissioned by Roads and Maritime to review strategic modelling completed by TDG (formerly Gabites Porter) and to prepare a traffic modelling report for the proposed bypass between Yallah and Oak Flats. Strategic traffic modelling outputs show that the LOS is expected to improve from LOS E/F to LOS C/D along the Princes Highway with the proposed bypass. In additional, travel times for through traffic are expected to improve from 20-40minutes in the peak period down to 7-9 minutes, which is similar to current travel times experienced along the corridor. The proposed bypass offers a number of traffic network benefits including: . The ability to separate heavy vehicles and local trips; . reduction in travel times for longer distance business and freight trips; . improvement in accessibility for local businesses; . improvement in travel time reliability for public transport freight, businesses and commuters; . improvement to the amenity for the Albion Park Rail town centre; . improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during wet weather (flooding); . improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during holiday periods increasing the attractiveness for tourists; and . most importantly, provides a longer term plan for the management of the large quantum of forthcoming development. It is strongly recommended that the project be further developed with additional design investigations with the view of considered both the current reserved road corridor in the LEP as well as the suggested shorter alternative. The next stage of design development should consider road hierarchy, interchange spacing, bypass access requirements, adjacent land use access requirements and local town centre access needs.
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10. REFERENCES . Guide to Road Design, Part 4c Interchanges (2009), Austroads; . Guide to Traffic Management Part 3: Traffic Studies and Analysis (April 2013), Austroads; . Yallah to Oak Flats Route Selection Study (1995), Connell Wagner Pty Ltd; . Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Corridor – “Yallah to Oak Flats” Traffic Study, Bitzios Consulting, (2013); . Principles and Guidelines for the Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives, TfNSW (Economic Policy Strategy & Planning : Finance, Audit & Strategy), (March 2013); . Illawarra Regional Airport Stage 1 – Flight Operational Capacity Study, Airport Masterplanning Consultants, (August 2010); . Shellharbour Shared Path Strategy, Shellharbour City Council, (2010); . http://www.illawarraregionalairport.com.au; . http://www.premierillawarra.com.au/; and . Yallah to Oak Flats – Crash History Report, ROADS AND MARITIMEWollongong, (November 2013).
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ATTACHMENT A
TRAVEL TIME REPORT
Yallah to Oak Flats
Travel Time Analysis
A series of travel time surveys were undertaken on Wed 13/3/13 and Thurs 14/3/13 during the two hour AM and PM peak periods along the Princes Highway from north of Tallawarra to the Lindsays Lane interchange. Approximately 16 runs in each direction were undertaken for each period. Some recorded runs were not used in the analysis because they were not within the area of interest.
In general the travel times during each period were reasonably consistent. The greatest variation occurred during the AM peak of the Wednesday runs between 8:00am and 8:30 am. Clearly a substantial delay occurred along the Princes Hwy between Station Rd and Creole Rd and may well be as a result of the operation of the metering signals at the Illawarra Hwy / Princes Hwy Roundabout. This level of delay did not occur during any time outside this half hour period or during any of the Thursday AM Peak runs.
The following table details a number of statistics for the travel time runs.
AMP AMP PMP PMP Northbound Southbound Northbound Southbound No of Runs 33 28 34 34 Mean 623 Sec 538 Sec 593 Sec 557 Sec SD 118 Sec 40 Sec 42 Sec 53 Sec Total Total Upper 95%ile 869 Sec 611 Sec 648 Sec 636 Sec Lower 95%ile 522 Sec 491 Sec 519 Sec 479 Sec
No of Runs 16 15 18 17 Mean 672 sec 542 Sec 585 Sec 536 Sec SD 148 sec 47 Sec 48 Sec 41 Sec Only Only Wed Wed 3/3/13 3/3/13
1 Upper 95%ile 918 sec 633 Sec 643 Sec 600 Sec Lower 95%ile 526 sec 494 Sec 518 Sec 465 Sec
No of Runs 17 13 16 17 Mean 576 sec 533 Sec 602 Sec 578 Sec SD 51 sec 31 Sec 34 Sec 56 Sec Only Only Thurs Thurs 4/3/13 4/3/13
1 Upper 95%ile 653 sec 590 Sec 646 Sec 663 Sec Lower 95%ile 519 sec 499 Sec 554 Sec 511 Sec
The above table shows that the Wednesday AMP northbound results are substantially higher than any other period or direction. This is most obvious when looking at the upper 95%ile values. The Wednesday upper 95%ile result is some 180 seconds higher than any other period.
Figures 1 and 2 indicate the distribution of the total route travel times in 30 second bins. These figures show that travel times are generally between 480 and 680 seconds. The exception to this is again the AM Peak northbound travel times which show a number of surveys which exceed 750 seconds.
Figures 3 and 4 indicate the total travel time for each survey distributed according to the time in which the survey was completed for each direction and day. These figures indicate that in most instances runs are completed within 500-650 seconds with the exception of runs undertaken between 8:00 am and 8:30am which consistently have travel times in excess of 775 seconds.
Figures 5 to 8 show the individual cumulative travel profile for each survey. The currently modelled 2011 TRACKS route profile is shown as a heavy black line. These figures show that with the exception of some AMP northbound surveys the individual travel profiles are similar. They also show that the 2011 TRACKS model is producing travel profiles and times at the lower limit of the survey results indicating that the model appears to be running fast along the route.
It is suggested that the appropriate travel time and profile for each direction and period is the mean result. The only issue appears to be the AMP northbound and determining whether the higher travel times are more typical than indicated on the survey days.
AMP Nthbnd Travel Time Frequency
16
14
12
10
8 Frequency 6
4
2
0 480-510 511-540 541-570 571-600 601-630 631-660 661-690 691-720 721-750 751-780 781-810 811-840 841-870 871-900 901-930 931-960 961-990 Travel Time Bin
AMP Sthbnd Travel Time Frequency
16
14
12
10
8 Frequency 6
4
2
0 480-510 511-540 541-570 571-600 601-630 631-660 661-690 691-720 721-750 751-780 781-810 811-840 841-870 871-900 901-930 931-960 961-990 Travel Time Bin
Yallah to Oak Flats AMP Travel Time Surveys Figure 1 Travel Time Frequencies Gabites Porter
PMP Nthbnd Travel Time Frequency
16
14
12
10
8 Frequency 6
4
2
0 Bin 480-510 511-540 541-570 571-600 601-630 631-660 661-690 691-720 721-750 751-780 781-810 811-840 841-870 871-900 901-930 931-960 961-990 Travel Time Bin
PMP Sthbnd Travel Time Frequency
16
14
12
10
8 Frequency 6
4
2
0 480-510 511-540 541-570 571-600 601-630 631-660 661-690 691-720 721-750 751-780 781-810 811-840 841-870 871-900 901-930 931-960 961-990 Travel Time Bin
Yallah to Oak Flats PMP Travel Time Surveys Figure 2 Travel Time Frequencies Gabites Porter
AMP Nthbnd Total Travel Times 1000 13/3/13 14/3/13 900
800
700
600
500
400 Total Travel Time (sec)
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0 07:00:00 07:10:00 07:20:00 07:30:00 07:40:00 07:50:00 08:00:00 08:10:00 08:20:00 08:30:00 08:40:00 08:50:00 09:00:00 Run End Time
AMP Sthbnd Total Travel Times 1000 13/3/13 14/3/13 900
800
700
600
500
400 Total Travel Total TimeTravel (sec)
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0 7:00 7:10 7:20 7:30 7:40 7:50 8:00 8:10 8:20 8:30 8:40 8:50 9:00 Run End Time
Yallah to Oak Flats AMP Travel Times by Day and Time of Run Figure 3 Gabites Porter
PMP Nthbnd Total Travel Times 1000 13/3/13 14/3/13 900
800
700
600
500
400 Total Total Travel Time (sec)
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0 16:00 16:10 16:20 16:30 16:40 16:50 17:00 17:10 17:20 17:30 17:40 17:50 18:00 18:10 Run End Time
PMP Sthbnd Total Travel Times 1000 13/3/13 14/3/13 900
800
700
600
500
400 Total Travel Total TimeTravel (sec)
300
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0 16:00 16:10 16:20 16:30 16:40 16:50 17:00 17:10 17:20 17:30 17:40 17:50 18:00 18:10 Run End Time
Yallah to Oak Flats PMP Travel Times by Day and Time of Run Figure 4 Gabites Porter
AMP Nthbnd Cummulative Travel 1000
07:12:00 07:14:00 900 07:17:00 07:23:00 07:27:00 800 07:31:00 07:32:00 07:38:00 700 07:46:00 07:46:00 07:49:00 600 07:49:00 07:52:00 07:56:00 500 08:01:00 08:04:00 08:18:00 Travel Travel Time (sec) 400 08:19:00 08:23:00 08:24:00 08:29:00 300 08:33:00 08:36:00 08:38:00 200 08:43:00 08:48:00 08:53:00 100 08:57:00 08:59:00 09:01:00 0 09:03:00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 09:03:00 Distance (m) from Start TRACKS
Yallah to Oak Flats AMP Northbound Travel Profiles Figure 5 Gabites Porter
AMP Sthbnd Cummulative Travel 1000
900 07:10:00 07:14:00 07:17:00 800 07:24:00 07:26:00 07:30:00 700 07:33:00 07:39:00 07:44:00 600 07:49:00 07:49:00 07:49:00 500 07:57:00 07:59:00 08:03:00 Travel Travel Time (sec) 400 08:03:00 08:10:00 08:14:00 08:18:00 300 08:19:00 08:29:00 08:31:00 200 08:34:00 08:45:00 08:49:00 100 08:50:00 08:57:00 08:59:00 0 TRACKS 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Distance (m) from Start
Yallah to Oak Flats AMP Southbound Travel Profiles Figure 6 Gabites Porter
PMP Nthbnd Cummulative Travel 1000
16:12:00 16:13:00 900 16:17:00 16:18:00 16:23:00 800 16:28:00 16:30:00 16:34:00 700 16:35:00 16:39:00 16:44:00 16:47:00 600 16:49:00 16:56:00 16:59:00 500 17:00:00 17:04:00
Travel Travel Time (sec) 17:12:00 400 17:17:00 17:21:00 17:24:00 300 17:27:00 17:30:00 08:38:00 200 17:40:00 17:40:00 17:45:00
100 17:52:00 17:54:00 17:57:00 17:58:00 0 18:02:00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 18:02:00 Distance (m) from Start TRACKS
Yallah to Oak Flats PMP Northbound Travel Profiles Figure 7 Gabites Porter
PMP Sthbnd Cummulative Travel 1000 15:57:00 16:09:00 16:12:00 900 16:16:00 16:23:00 16:25:00 800 16:29:00 16:30:00 16:32:00 700 16:35:00 16:40:00 16:45:00
600 16:46:00 16:46:00 16:51:00 16:56:00 500 17:02:00 17:07:00
Travel Travel Time (sec) 17:09:00 400 17:11:00 17:12:00 17:15:00 300 17:16:00 17:25:00 17:31:00 200 17:37:00 17:38:00 17:40:00 100 17:43:00 17:43:00 17:43:00 17:51:00 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 17:57:00 18:03:00 Distance (m) from Start TRACKS
Yallah to Oak Flats PMP Southbound Travel Profiles Figure 8 Gabites Porter
Yallah to Oak Flats
RISS Analysis
GPS travel time data was obtained by RMS for cars and vans during the two hour AM and PM peak periods for 2011 and 2012. The route was along the Princes Highway from Haywards Bay to north of the Oak Flats interchange. The route was shorter than the manual travel times undertaken by RMS and measured 5.2km and 4.8km in the northbound and southbound directions respectively.
In general the travel times during each period were reasonably consistent. The greatest variation occurred during the AM peak for northbound traffic between 7:45am and 8:30am. The data indicates delay occurring along the Princes Hwy between Station Rd and Creamery Rd and may well be as a result of the operation of the metering signals at the Illawarra Hwy / Princes Hwy Roundabout. This level of delay did not occur during any time outside this half hour period.
The following table details a number of statistics for the travel time runs.
AMP AMP PMP PMP Northbound Southbound Northbound Southbound No of Runs 2105 880 7564 2092 Mean 443 Sec 323 Sec 422 Sec 362 Sec
21 Max 508 Sec 350 Sec 456 Sec 402 Sec 02 Min 298 Sec 307 Sec 371 Sec 333 Sec Speed 42.8kph 53.2kph 44.1kph 47.5kph Distance 5.2km 4.8km 5.2km 4.8km
No of Runs 1542 1080 6812 3576 Mean 403 Sec 358 Sec 421 Sec 403 Sec
11 Max 463 Sec 432 Sec 467 Sec 481 Sec 02 Min 331 Sec 287 Sec 363 Sec 332 Sec Speed 46.7kph 48.7kph 44.3kph 43.0kph Distance 5.2km 4.8km 5.2km 4.8km
As the RISS results for each 15min period are reported as averages, it is not possible to determine standard deviations for each period and direction.
Figures 1 and 2 indicate the total travel time for the RISS surveys distributed according to the time in which the survey was completed for each direction. The average travel times for the manual travel time surveys for this part of the overall route have been superimposed over the RISS results for comparison purposes. It appears that the two data sets are reasonably consistent with each other apart for the AM peak northbound route between 8:00am and 8:30am where the manual surveys indicate a much longer travel time.
AM Peak Northbound
600
500
400
2012 300 2011 Ave Manual
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100
0 07:00 - 07:15 07:15 - 07:30 07:30 - 07:45 07:45 - 08:00 08:00 - 08:15 08:15 - 08:30 08:30 - 08:45 08:45 - 09:00
AM Peak Southbound
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2012 300 2011 Ave Manual
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0 07:00 - 07:15 07:15 - 07:30 07:30 - 07:45 07:45 - 08:00 08:00 - 08:15 08:15 - 08:30 08:30 - 08:45 08:45 - 09:00
Yallah to Oak Flats AMP Travel Time Surveys by Time of Day Figure 1 Gabites Porter
PM Peak Northbound
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2012 300 2011 Ave Manual
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0 16:00 - 16:15 16:15 - 16:30 16:30 - 16:45 16:45 - 17:00 17:00 - 17:15 17:15 - 17:30 17:30 - 17:45 17:45 - 18:00
PM Peak Southbound
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2012 300 2011 Ave Manual
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0 16:00 - 16:15 16:15 - 16:30 16:30 - 16:45 16:45 - 17:00 17:00 - 17:15 17:15 - 17:30 17:30 - 17:45 17:45 - 18:00
Yallah to Oak Flats PMP Travel Time Surveys by Time of Day Figure 2 Gabites Porter
ATTACHMENT B
MODEL VALIDATION REPORT AND TECHNICAL NOTE
Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
Issue History
File Name Prepared by Reviewed by Issued by Date Issued to P1251.001T Strategic Modelling Technical Note A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 24.10.13 P.Hawkins (RMS)
Strategic Modelling Technical Note – WOLSH Model Re-Validation
1. APPROACH The 2011 WOLSH model was re-validated to 2013 traffic count and travel time data. The traffic count and travel time data adopted as well as the model validation details are included in the following sections. This revalidated model has formed the ‘CURRENT YEAR MODEL’ used for the basis of this assessment.
2. MODEL REVIEW FINDINGS
2.1 TRAVEL TIME A series of travel time surveys were undertaken on Wed 13/3/13 and Thurs 14/3/13 during the two hour AM and PM peak periods along the Princes Highway from north of Tallawarra to Shellharbour Interchange (Lindsay Lane / Shellharbour Road). For the purpose of re-validating the Wollongong and Shellharbour Strategic Transport Model (WOLSH Model) the travel time comparison was taken from the Oak Flats Interchange northbound exit ramp through to just south of Tallawarra Interchange at the northbound exit. Figure 1 shows the travel time survey extents. Sixteen runs in each direction were undertaken for each period. The travel time summary report completed by TDG (formerly Gabites Porter) is included as Attachment A. In general, the travel times during each period were reasonably consistent. The greatest variation occurred during the AM peak period of the Wednesday runs between 8:00am and 8:30 am. Table 1 details a summary of the travel time data obtained in March 2013 adopted as basis for the current year transport model validation. Table 1: Travel Time Survey Summary
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
Study Area
Travel Time Extent used for Model Validation and Performance Reporting
Travel Time Extent
Figure 1: Travel Time Survey Extent Table 1 shows that the Wednesday AM peak period (northbound) results are substantially higher than any other period or direction. This is most obvious when looking at the upper 95%ile values. The Wednesday upper 95%ile result is 180 seconds higher than any other period. This has appears to have been skewed by a couple of surveyed runs that occurred within a 15 minute peak congestion period where the highway had reached capacity. The congestion appeared to be initiated from the failure of the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout in the northbound direction. It should be noted that this 15 minute ‘spike’ in travel time is not considered appropriate for adoption for model validation purposes as it is not reflective of the typical operating conditions across the 1 hour peak period. The travel time survey indicated that the travel runs were mostly completed within 500-650 seconds, with the exception of runs undertaken between 8:00am and 8:30am which consistently had travel times in excess of 775 seconds. Figure 2 to Figure 5 show the individual cumulative travel profile for each survey. The original modelled WOLSH route profile is shown as a heavy black line. These figures show that with the exception of some AM peak period northbound surveys the individual travel profiles are similar. They also show that the WOLSH model was producing travel profiles and times at the lower limit of the survey results indicating that the travel times in the transport model were quicker than those obtained through the travel time surveys.
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
WOLSH Model
Figure 2: Original Model vs Observed Travel Time Comparison (Northbound AM Peak)
WOLSH Model
Figure 3: Original Model vs Observed Travel Time Comparison (Southbound AM Peak)
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
WOLSH Model
Figure 4: Original Model vs Observed Travel Time Comparison (Northbound PM Peak)
WOLSH Model
Figure 5: Original Model vs Observed Travel Time Comparison (Southbound PM Peak)
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation A number of amendments were made to the study corridor through a combination of reviewing the ‘link type’ (link speed) coding as well as the above travel time data. The main issue noticed was that the model appeared to be containing travel times that were too low compared to the travel time surveys, which appeared to be mainly caused by the level of delay represented at the intersections. These delay shortcomings at the intersections were as a result of a number of minor inconsistencies in the model coding, whereby the signalised intersections were given attributes that favoured through traffic, when in the field they experience a greater level of delay (ie more time was required to be given to a side street or turning movement subsequently reduced from the main road, or an additional signal phase was introduced thereby reducing the proportion of ‘green signal’ time for the through movement, etc). As a result of the review, the following key changes were specifically undertaken: . Slow Princes Highway northbound from Illawarra Hwy for 300m to reflect speed limit (100kph to 70kph); . Slow Princes Highway from Tongarra Road to just north of Creamery Road to reflect speed limit (70kph to 60kph); . Slow Princes Highway from Woollybutt Drive to Colden Drive to reflect speed environment (80kph to 70kph – southbound direction only); . Princes Highway / Colden Drive – changes to permitted movements in each signal phase; . Princes Highway / Railway Street – an additional signal phase was required; . Princes Highway / Airport Road – adjustments to signal times were required; and . Princes Highway / Tongarra Road – an additional signal phase was required, and additional time given to side street movements. In addition to the above items, the travel speed and delay noticed at the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout did not appear to replicate existing conditions. The issue at this location was more complex and has been described in the following section.
2.2 ILLAWARRA HIGHWAY / PRINCES HIGHWAY SIGNALISED ROUNDABOUT The model review process identified that the northbound approach delay appeared to vary when comparing AM and PM peak traffic movements. Austroads shows that for a vehicle requiring to giveway to two lanes of the traffic, the gap acceptance and headway parameters could be anywhere between 4s-8s and 2s-5s respectively (refer Figure 6 below). Further research identified that as the circulating (or approaching) traffic volumes increase, the gap acceptance and headway parameters reduce (refer Figure 7 and Figure 8 below). The Princes Highway / Illawarra Highway intersection was originally coded as a roundabout which has fixed gap acceptance and headway parameters. The intersection coding was changed from the default point intersection (roundabout), to a coded set of individual give way approaches in a circular one way system to enable the gap acceptance and headway parameters to be adjusted to reflect local operating conditions. The use of different parameters from the below graphs have been adopted for the AM and PM peak models from the researched graphs undertaken by R.Troutbeck (and released by the Australian Road and Research Board in 1989).
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
Figure 6: Gap Acceptance and Headway Factors
AM Peak PM Peak
Figure 7: AM and PM Peak Headway Comparison to ARRB Report
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation g ( )
AM Peak PM Peak
Figure 8: AM and PM Peak Gap Acceptance Comparison to ARRB Report
2.3 MODEL CODING AMENDMENTS A detailed review of the base model was completed for the project area and the secondary route choice areas of Lake Entrance Road and Shellharbour Road, through to Five Islands Road. The key findings from the review and the subsequent model coding changes were as follows: . the Illawarra Highway link types were changed to reflect the 70kph and 90kph speed limits that exist on this section of road; . change the link types on Shellharbour Road in the Primbee area to align with the 80kph speed limit that exists; . change the link type on the Princes Highway from Cormack Avenue to Huntley Road to align with the 80kph speed limit that exists; . correct a link lane error on Lake Entrance Road at the Madigan Street traffic signals; . increase the number of approach lanes at the Tongarra Road / Princes Highway traffic signals; . reduce the number of coded lanes in the Princes Highway near Creole Road to two in each direction; . increase the number of effective lanes at the Princes Highway / Cormack Avenue intersection; . correct intersection lane coding error at the Princes Highway / Huntley Road intersection; . increase the number of lanes on Terry Street from Tongarra Road to Cawdell Drive to two lanes in each direction; . a new roundabout at the Terry Street / Church Street intersection; . correct the number of coded lanes on the southern circulation link within the Oak Flats roundabout at the Oak Flats Interchange; and . code a left turn slip lane from the western approach to the Oak Flats roundabout at the Oak Flats interchange.
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
2.4 MODEL DEMAND AMENDMENTS The model traffic demands (ie traffic generated from any precinct) were also reviewed with the following change made to the Base Model: . the southern model external zone had its flows increased to reflect the average surveyed March 2013 directional flows at permanent count station at that location.
2.5 MODEL ASSIGNMENT METHOD Upon testing future year models the level of traffic re-distribution was not as expected. Further interrogation of the model assignment process revealed a need for the base model parameters to be altered. The WOLSH model uses an incremental time dependant methodology to assign traffic to the network. In the AM peak there are 13 increments with four cost skims to represent the level of flow for each 15 minute period. In the PM peak there are 14 increments. During an incremental assignment a ‘cost skim’ is used to ascertain the drivers perceived cost to choose a particular route to arrive at their destination (from their trip origin). The perceived cost is based on both time and distance factors. These factors were developed as part of an extensive model calibration exercise when preparing the WOLSH model. The amount of traffic released onto the transport network in each increment is based on the peak hour traffic profile which was validated to city-wide traffic count data. A large focus of the WOLSH model took emphasis on the Wollongong City Centre. Further interrogation of traffic count data in the study area (Yallah to Oak Flats) revealed that the traffic profile was in fact very constant which is different to what exists in the WOLSH model whereby the traffic increases toward the middle of the peak periods. The incremental assignment methodology adopted in the TRACKS Modelling software re-arranges the peak hour traffic profile such that each increment of the hourly traffic volume data is ranked from lowest to highest. Each increment is then incrementally loaded onto the network in the same order (from lowest traffic volume to highest traffic volume). A cost-skim is completed every 15 minutes to allow traffic to re- distribute to other routes as the time to complete the route changes and other routes may be perceived to become more cost effective (ie due to traffic congestion). The traffic profile adopted for the WOLSH Model (City-Wide) is as follows: . AM peak - First 15 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 66.5% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 30 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 79.7% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 45 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 93.3% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; and - At the end of the 1 hour peak period, a flow rate reflecting 100% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network. . PM peak - First 15 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 70.5% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 30 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 83.6% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 45 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 97.1% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; and - At the end of the 1 hour peak period, a flow rate reflecting 100% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network. The resultant impact from the above profile, when attempting to test the bypass option, is that it is not until the latter two 15 minutes periods until traffic begins to be retained on the proposed bypass corridor. This is due to the fact that there is not enough traffic on the network under the first two 15 minute periods to create enough congestion along the Princes Highway to make the bypass attractive. The resultant traffic volumes loaded to the Princes Highway corridor were subsequently much higher than what the corridor could theoretically sustain. This is due to the fact that the corridor is loaded with both local and through traffic in
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation the first two 15 minute periods. In the last two 15 minute periods the through traffic begins to divert onto the bypass, but the local destined traffic will still be required to use the Princes Highway corridor. This is most likely what also occurred in the initial study that was completed in 1995. As the traffic profile for the immediate study area was known to be constantly high over the peak hour period, it was decided to cordon (cut-out) the study area from the WOLSH Model and apply a traffic profile that was reflective of current conditions. The actual traffic profile that was subsequently adopted for the cordoned model area, based on 2013 traffic count data was as follows: . AM peak - First 15 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 89.4% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 30 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 97.5% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 45 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 98.2% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; and - At the end of the 1 hour peak period, a flow rate reflecting 100% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network. . PM peak - First 15 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 94.5% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 30 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 97.0% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; - After 45 minutes, a flow rate reflecting 97.8% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network; and - At the end of the 1 hour peak period, a flow rate reflecting 100% of peak hour traffic is loaded to the network. The actual profile in the study area is very constant (or termed as being ‘flat’). The survey data was obtained from 2013 data. It is expected that this data will flatten further as traffic growth in the area increases. As such, a flat profile using a flow rate reflecting 100% of peak hour traffic was loaded to the network for each 15 minute period. The results from the proposed bypass scenario became more realistic with volumes loaded to the Princes Highway reaching theoretical capacity levels after the first 15 minute period and through trips immediately began to transfer to the proposed bypass. In summary, the modelling assignment process adopted involved ‘cutting out’ a section of the WOLSH model representative of the study, and the subsequent trip matrix was then assigned to the transport network using a ‘flat’ traffic profile. The incremental time dependant assignment methodology was still used for the cordoned area, however with a ‘flat’ profile, effectively resulting in a traditional equilibrium assignment methodology (ie incremental assignment / ranking of increments is not applied). All model tests for the base year and future year were tested using the ‘flat’ incremental (or effective equilibrium) assignment method. To verify use of this assignment method, the Base Year AM and PM peak models were validated to existing surveyed data. The outcomes from the model validation process are discussed in the following section.
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
2.6 MODEL VALIDATION The model validation to existing traffic count data is shown in Table 2 below. Table 2: Traffic Count Validation
Table 2 shows that the base model traffic volumes are within reasonable limits of the existing traffic count data.
Figure 9 to Figure 12 shows a high level of model validation to the surveyed data. This was able to be achieved mostly through adjustments to signal phasing at key intersections to replicate existing conditions, as well as a major change to the gap acceptance and headway parameters at the Illawarra Highway / Princes Highway roundabout, to also replicate existing conditions. The gap acceptance and headway factors adopted for the roundabout were as follows: . AM Peak : Critical Gap = 4.20s, Headway = 2.50s . PM Peak : Critical Gap = 3.80s, Headway = 2.20s
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
WOLSH Incremental Flat Incremental
Figure 9: Base Model vs Observed Travel Time Validation (Northbound AM Peak)
WOLSH Incremental Flat Incremental
Figure 10: Base Model vs Observed Travel Time Validation (Southbound AM Peak)
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Strategic Modelling Technical Note WOLSH Model Re-validation
WOLSH Incremental Flat Incremental
Figure 11: Base Model vs Observed Travel Time Validation (Northbound PM Peak)
WOLSH Incremental Flat Incremental
Figure 12: Base Model vs Observed Travel Time Validation (Southbound PM Peak)
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ATTACHMENT C
OPTION TESTING REPORT
Yallah to Oak Flats Bypass Travel Time Cost Options
1. Introduction
In order to help determine the possible utilisation of the Yallah to Oak Flats Bypass, RMS has requested that the existing WOLSH TRACKS model be locally validated in the immediate area of the bypass and retested using different assignment methods and cost values. This additional modelling was intended to specifically indicate the Bypass usage by through traffic and what variation in the through traffic usage may occur with the different travel time and distance costs.
The testing involved creating a sub-model of the area surrounding the proposed bypass. This sub-model was used to model network operation using two different bypass alignments (existing alignment and an alignment 700m shorter) and two different sets of travel cost values (standard validated WOLSH model values and time only costs).
This analysis used a conventional incremental assignment process with a flat loading profile spread over 13 or 14 increments depending on the period of assignment.
2. Bypass through Traffic Volumes
The modelling involved four different network and cost options and were as follows:
¢ Original alignment with existing assignment travel values for both light and heavy vehicles of 23.44c/min and 20.51c/km.
¢ Original alignment with assignment based entirely on time saving of 23.44c/min.
¢ Shorter alignment with existing assignment travel values for both light and heavy vehicles of 23.44c/min and 20.51c/km.
¢ Shorter alignment with assignment based entirely on time saving of 23.44c/min.
These sub-area models were cut directly from the original full base model. Each option sub- area model was identical except for the different travel time and distance costs and the two different lengths of the southern portion of the Bypass. This sub-model process meant that flow differences were therefore restricted to the sub-area and did not involve changes as a result of route choices in distant areas.
Following earlier analysis, the 2046 operation of a number of intersections were noted as causing excessive delay and therefore producing “pinch-points” in flow. The phasing arrangements of the signalised intersections at the proposed Tongarra / Bypass on and off ramps were modified to improve operation and the approaches to the Oak Flats roundabout were converted into simple two phase traffic signals to increase capacity.
The following Tables 1-6 summarise the flows for the original 2011 Base flows, 2046 do- nothing flows and the 2046 bypass options for five key locations in the area: 1. Bypass – north of the Tongarra Interchange
2. Bypass – on the Tongarra Interchange overbridge 3. Bypass – south of the Tongarra Interchange 4. Princes Hwy – south of Mye Place 5. Princes Hwy – north of Colden Drive
Bypass – Nth of Bypass – On Bypass – Sth Princes Hwy – Princes Hwy – Tongarra Tongarra of Tongarra Sth of Mye Place Nth of Colden Interchange Overbridge Interchange Drive AM Northbound - - - 2015 1910 AM Southbound - - - 1663 1837 PM Northbound - - - 1556 1744 PM Southbound - - - 1941 1852
Table 1: 2011 Base Model Volumes
Bypass – Nth of Bypass – On Bypass – Sth Princes Hwy – Princes Hwy – Tongarra Tongarra of Tongarra Sth of Mye Place Nth of Colden Interchange Overbridge Interchange Drive AM Northbound - - - 3028 2828 AM Southbound - - - 1765 1842 PM Northbound - - - 2165 1631 PM Southbound - - - 2964 2766
Table 2: 2046 Base Model Volumes
Bypass – Nth of Bypass – On Bypass – Sth Princes Hwy – Princes Hwy – Tongarra Tongarra of Tongarra Sth of Mye Place Nth of Colden Interchange Overbridge Interchange Drive AM Northbound 2685 1370 1804 1850 1438 AM Southbound 853 130 268 1593 1755 PM Northbound 1156 490 898 1678 1253 PM Southbound 2375 1051 1244 1838 2011
Table 3: 2046 Original Bypass Alignment – WOLSH Costs
Bypass – Nth of Bypass – On Bypass – Sth Princes Hwy – Princes Hwy – Tongarra Tongarra of Tongarra Sth of Mye Place Nth of Colden Interchange Overbridge Interchange Drive AM Northbound 3045 1791 2495 1496 912 AM Southbound 1373 634 937 1073 1045 PM Northbound 1493 846 1326 1318 905 PM Southbound 2607 1299 1850 1606 1503
Table 4: 2046 Original Bypass Alignment – Time Cost Only
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Bypass – Nth of Bypass – On Bypass – Sth Princes Hwy – Princes Hwy – Tongarra Tongarra of Tongarra Sth of Mye Place Nth of Colden Interchange Overbridge Interchange Drive AM Northbound 2825 1523 2234 1710 1042 AM Southbound 915 197 569 1530 1461 PM Northbound 1448 801 1293 1339 913 PM Southbound 2423 1128 1663 1790 1645
Table 5: 2046 Shorter Bypass Alignment – WOLSH Costs
Bypass – Nth of Bypass – On Bypass – Sth Princes Hwy – Princes Hwy – Tongarra Tongarra of Tongarra Sth of Mye Place Nth of Colden Interchange Overbridge Interchange Drive AM Northbound 3067 1902 2578 1469 820 AM Southbound 1390 682 1028 1059 1014 PM Northbound 1520 890 1402 1292 863 PM Southbound 2606 1380 1892 1587 1466
Table 6: 2046 Shorter Bypass Alignment – Time Cost Only
The tables show that a reasonable number of vehicles are expected to use the bypass overall and as a through route even in its longer form and with the WOLSH costs of travel using the incremental assignment technique. Shortening the route is expected to add approximately 400-500 vph in each direction on the Tongarra Overpass. Reducing the assignment procedure to a purely time based assignment results in a further increase in the use of the bypass and the Tongarra Overbridge in particular.
It should be noted that the southbound Bypass route is not available to Princes Highway vehicles. Only southbound vehicles using the F6 have the choice of routes to take. However, northbound Princes Highway traffic does have access to both the Bypass and Princes Hwy routes.
3. Bypass and Princes Hwy Travel Times
The average travel times for the Princes Hwy and Bypass routes between the Oak Flats Northbound Off Ramp and the Tallawarra Northbound On Ramp are shown in the following Tables 7 and 8. The Princes Hwy route has a total length of approximately 7730m with an original Bypass route distance of 10670m and a shorter option Bypass route distance of 9970m.
The travel times along the existing Princes Hwy and Bypass routes, for the 2011 existing situation, 2046 do-nothing and each of the options, are shown below.
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Travel Time (sec) Bypass – Princes Hwy – Difference Bypass – Princes Hwy Difference Nthbnd Nthbnd Sthbnd – Sthbnd 2011 Base - 584 - - 454 - 2046 Base - 2632 - - 497 - 2046 Full Bypass 398 568 -170 389 498 -109 (WOLSH costs) 2046 Full Bypass 401 548 -147 392 455 -63 (Time only) 2046 Short Bypass 373 545 -172 364 483 -119 (WOLSH costs) 2046 Short Bypass 376 557 -181 367 461 -94 (Time only)
Table 7: 2036 AM Peak Travel Times
Travel Time (sec) Bypass – Princes Hwy – Difference Bypass – Princes Hwy Difference Nthbnd Nthbnd Sthbnd – Sthbnd 2011 Base - 532 - - 492 - 2046 Base - 864 - - 1411 - 2046 Full Bypass 391 546 -155 396 545 -149 (WOLSH costs) 2046 Full Bypass 393 544 -151 398 476 -78 (Time only) 2046 Short Bypass 367 551 -184 371 513 -142 (WOLSH costs) 2046 Short Bypass 368 543 -175 372 466 -74 (Time only)
Table 8: 2036 PM Peak Travel Times
4. Conclusion
Overall, it appears that using a standard flat incremental assignment process produces a good bypass utilisation results, especially for through traffic. The original Bypass alignment option produces some reasonable bypass diversion but refining the alignment to make it 700m shorter increases the utilisation.
A set of sensitivity tests which used a time only assignment resulted in Bypass use that would probably be the maximum use. This resulted in a significant increase in the use of the Bypass for through traffic especially in the AM peak southbound direction.
Traffic Design Group Ltd 19 September 2013
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ATTACHMENT D
TRAFFIC VOLUMES PLOT
Yallah Bypass Assessment, Volume Plots
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ATTACHMENT E
LOS PLOT
Yallah Bypass Assessment, LOS Plots
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ATTACHMENT F
SELECT LINK PLOT
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ATTACHMENT G
CRASH ANALYSIS REPORT
YALLAH TO OAK FLATS Crash History Report November 2013
1. Introduction Traffic crash data for the five year period from April 2008 to March 2013 has been analysed along the following sections of road within the project study area: a) Princes Highway b) Illawarra Hwy c) Tongarra Rd Figure 1.1: Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area
The crash data has been analysed to determine the most common category of crashes and contributing factors of crashes. Road safety indicators have then been developed to compare the crash severity and risk of a crash occurring along each road within the study area. 2. Background In 1994 a Route Selection Study commenced for a high standard divided carriageway from Yallah to Oak Flats, to provide a strategy for the most congested section of roadway between Sydney and Nowra. The existing alignment is four lanes with six traffic lights throughout the 7.3 kilometre study area. The current route is heavily congested with a level of service as low as E in the AM peak. Six different route options were analysed for various factors including road user benefits, environment, community impact, land use, cost and recreation facilities. All options had similar engineering construction costs, but the eastern options had very high acquisition costs compared to the western options. In 1995, Connell Wagner recommended western Option 6 as the preferred long term route for Yallah to Oak Flats. In response to community feedback, the RTA carried out additional concept design work to develop a route which minimised the effect on the Croome Road
2 Sport Complex. In 1996, a western option, 6A, was ultimately chosen as the preferred route option to bypass the existing highway as it minimised the effect on the Croome Road Sport Complex, the houses on Croome Road and the endangered plant species (Pterostylis gibbosa - Illawarra Greenhood Orchid) within the Croome Road Sport Complex. This route has been formally incorporated into Shellharbour and Wollongong Council LEP, and has been taken into account with the construction of the Oak Flats Interchange and the East-West Link. The proposed corridor is now being reviewed and background information being gathered for this portion of the Princes Highway.
3. Crash Category The crash history for the five year analysis period shows 367 crashes were reported along the Princes Highway, Illawarra Hwy and Tongarra Rd within the study area. Of the 367 crashes, 2 were fatal crashes that resulted in 2 fatalities. There were 164 injury crashes that resulted in 220 injuries and 201 non-injury crashes. 327 (90%) of the reported 327 crashes that occurred on the Princes Highway; 1 fatal crash resulting in 1 fatality, 143 injury crashes resulting in 186 injuries and 183 non-injury crashes. Figure 3.1: Locations of crashes in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area (April 2008-March 2013)
The four most common types of crashes account for almost 80% of all the reported accidents within the study area on state roads. The type and number of crashes that were reported are: a) Rear-end (186 – 50.7%) b) Intersection, adjacent approaches (39 – 10.6%)) c) Opposing vehicles; turning (34 – 9.3%) d) Off road on straight, hit object (32 – 8.7%)
3 Of the 367 reported crashes, 68 (18.5%) occurred during darkness, 11 (3%) at dusk and 4 (1.1%) at dawn. 52 (14.2%) crashes occurred on a wet road surface while no crashes occurred on a snowy or icy road surface. 38 (10.4%) crashes occurred during raining weather conditions, 29 (7.9%) during overcast weather conditions and 2 (0.5%) occurred during foggy or misty weather conditions. During the analysis period 171 (46.6%) crashes occurred at an intersection. 320 (87.2%) of the reported crashes involved multiple vehicles. Motorcycles were involved in 13 (3.5%) crashes, pedestrians were involved in 7 (1.9%) crashes and pedal cyclists were involved in 4 (1.1%) crashes. Speeding was considered a contributing factor in 23 (6.3%) of the reported crashes, fatigue was considered a contributing factor in 11 (3%) of crashes and alcohol was considered a contributing factor in 4 (1.1%) of crashes. 3.0.1 Princes Highway Crashes
The majority of crashes reported in the analysis area occurred on the Princes Highway, being 327 crashes or 90%. Similarly, the four most common types of crashes account for almost 80% of the reported crashes on the Princes Highway: a) Rear-end (165 – 50.5%) b) Intersection, adjacent approaches (30 – 9.2%)) c) Opposing vehicles; turning (33 – 10.1%) d) Off road on straight, hit object (29 – 8.9%) Of the 327 reported crashes, 62 (19.0%) occurred during darkness, 9 (2.8%) at dusk and 3 (0.9%) at dawn. 41 (12.6%) crashes occurred on a wet road surface while no crashes occurred on a snowy or icy road surface. 30 (9.2%) crashes occurred during raining weather conditions, 25 (7.6%) during overcast weather conditions and 1 (0.3%) occurred during foggy or misty weather conditions. During the analysis period 154 (47.1%) crashes occurred at an intersection. 286 (87.5%) of the reported crashes involved multiple vehicles. Motorcycles were involved in 13 (4.0%) crashes, pedestrians were involved in 6 (1.8%) crashes and pedal cyclists were involved in 4 (1.2%) crashes. Speeding was considered a contributing factor in 18 (5.5%) of the reported crashes, fatigue was considered a contributing factor in 11 (3.4%) of crashes and alcohol was considered a contributing factor in 3 (0.9%) of crashes.
4 3.1 Possible Contributing Factors Austroads Guide to Road Safety, Part 8: Treatment of Crash Locations: Table 8.5 lists possible contributing factors for different crash types. 3.1.1 Rear End Crashes
Possible contributing factors for rear end crashes: • Queued right turn vehicles further ahead. • Traffic signals around curve or over crest. • Other unexpected cause of delay further ahead. • Inadequate skid resistance or pavement drainage. • Wrong offset timing of linked signals. • ‘See through’ effect of consecutive traffic signals. • Inadequate inter-green phase on signals. • Presence of parked cars. • Unstable flow on high speed road. • Turning vehicles where they are not expected (e.g. just before or just after signals). • A left turn slip lane permitting high speed turns.
Figure 3.1.1: Rear end crashes in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area (April 2008-March 2013)
5 3.1.2 Intersection, Adjacent Approaches
Possible contributing factors for intersection, adjacent approach crashes
• Restricted sight distance. • High approach speeds. • ‘See through’ effect on a minor approach. • Obscured control sign, control lines or signal lanterns. • The presence of the intersection is not otherwise evident (at time of day). • Traffic volumes too high for Give Way or Stop controls (inadequate gaps).
Figure 3.1.2: intersection crashes in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area (April 2008-March 2013)
6 3.1.3 Opposing Vehicles; Turning
Possible contributing factors for opposing vehicles; turning crashes
• Restricted visibility. • Queued oncoming right turners block visibility. • Insufficient number of gaps in oncoming traffic. • Too many lanes of oncoming traffic to filter across. • Complex intersection layout.
Figure 3.1.3: Opposing vehicles turning crashes in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area (April 2008-March 2013)
7 3.1.4 Off Road on Straight, Hit Object
Possible contributing factors for off road on straight, hit object crashes • Narrow lanes or narrow seal. • Severity of curve cannot be judged. • Edge of the road is not evident. • Gravel shoulders do not allow recovery of control. • Alignment of road is deceptive. • Inadequate skid resistance or pavement drainage. • Islands not visible. • Complex layout.
Figure 3.1.3: Off road on straight crashes in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area (April 2008-March 2013)
8 4. Crash Historical Trends Review of historical crash data over the latest 10 years of validated crash data shows an increase in both crashes and casualties per quarter, with the number of casualties per quarter increasing at a greater rate than crashes. The crashes per quarter year and casualties per quarter year for each year are shown in Figure 4.1. Figure 4.1: Historical trend of crash and casualty rates/quarter
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5. Road Safety Indicators The five year period of crash data has been analysed and the following road safety indicators calculated to compare the crash severity and the risk of a crash occurring in each of the sections within the study area. These indicators include: 1. Crash severity indices 2. Crash rate per one hundred million vehicle kilometres travelled (100MVKM) 3. Crash rate per kilometre per year 4. Crash costs Various factors are examined when identifying and ranking hazardous locations. Crashes are described by both their type and severity. When ranked, crashes with a more severe outcome are given a greater weighting based on the average cost of each crash type or severity category. However, there is no general consensus as to how a ranked list is best determined (for instance by crash type, severity or a combination of both).
5.1 Severity Index The severity index is used to assess road safety based on the degree of crash severity (rather than crash type) in New South Wales (NSW). This severity index is calculated by weighting each crash according to its degree of severity, as defined in Table 5.1.1. Traffic volumes are excluded from the calculation. 9
Table 5.1.1: Crash Severity Weightings Degree of Crash Weight Fatal 3.0 Injury 1.5 Tow-away 1.0
The following formula is used to derive the severity index: Severity index = [(Number of fatal crashes x 3.0) + (Number of injury crashes x 1.5) + (Number of tow-away crashes x 1.0)] / Total number of crashes This severity index calculation provides an average severity weighting for each section that enables some comparison. The maximum possible index is 3 (most hazardous) and the minimum is 0 (least hazardous). The lower the index for a section of road, the better the safety performance.
Table 5.1.2: Severity Indices for Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area Severity Road Section From Section To Index HW1 Princes Highway Northern Study Area Boundary HW25 Illawarra Hwy 1.22 HW1 Princes Highway HW25 Illawarra Hwy MR262 Tongarra Rd 1.21 HW1 Princes Highway MR262 Tongarra Rd Southern Study Area Boundary 1.24 HW25 Illawarra Highway HW1 Princes Highway Western Study Area Boundary 1.20 MR262 Tongarra Rd HW1 Princes Highway Western Study Area Boundary 1.43 Average Severity Index for Urban Divided Road, Road Safety Indicator 2006-2011 1.22
The severity index for the whole of the study area is 1.23. Tongarra Rd has a high severity index due to a high proportion of injury crashes in a relatively small number of crashes. The other four sections within the study area are within 1 standard deviation (0.06) of the average severity index for an Urban Divided road in RMS Southern Region.
5.2 Total Severity The total severity calculation is the total weighted severity of crashes for that section. It is the same as the severity index calculation but not divided by the number of crashes. The crash weightings are as detailed in Table 5.1.1. Table 5.2.1: Severity Indices for Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area Total Road Section From Section To Severity HW1 Princes Highway Northern Study Area Boundary HW25 Illawarra Hwy 71 HW1 Princes Highway HW25 Illawarra Hwy MR262 Tongarra Rd 161.5 HW1 Princes Highway MR262 Tongarra Rd Southern Study Area Boundary 168 HW25 Illawarra Highway HW1 Princes Highway Western Study Area Boundary 24 MR262 Tongarra Rd HW1 Princes Highway Western Study Area Boundary 28.5 Average Total Severity for Urban Divided Road, Road Safety Indicator 2006-2011 64.47
10 The average total severity for an urban divided road doesn’t take into account differences in road segment lengths and traffic volumes. As such it should not be directly compared to the total severity for the sections in the study area. However, when both the total severity and severity index together are compared it gives a good comparison as to the amount of crashes and the average severity of these crashes. Given the comparatively high total severity on the Princes Highway between Tongarra Rd and the southern study area boundary (168.0) to the average (64.47) with almost the same severity index, 1.24 and 1.22 respectively, it shows that while there are many more crashes occurring in this section, the severity of the crashes is the same as the average for an urban divided road.
5.3 Crash Rates per One Hundred Million Vehicle Kilometres Unlike severity index calculations, crash rates account for the differences in traffic flows between sections of road by including the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) in the equation. Therefore, crash rates are a more accurate measure of the risk of a crash occurring than crash frequencies alone. This crash rate identifies sections of road that have a higher frequency of crashes per one hundred million vehicle kilometres travelled (100 MVKM), utilising the following formula: Crashes per 100 MVKM = (Number of crashes (or casualties) / Number of years) x [100,000,000 / (365 x Length in km of planning section x AADT)] In addition, the crash rate per 100 MVKM is provided for casualty (fatal and injury) crashes and casualties (fatalities and injuries) in Table 5.2.1. AADT data has been used from 2011 to represent the AADT over the 5 year analysis period.
Table 5.3.1: Crash, Casualty and Casualties rates in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area Crash Casualty Casualties Road Length 2011 Section From Section To Rate/100 Rate/100 Rate/100M Number AADT (km) MVKM MVKM VKM Northern Study HW25 HW1 2.460 58,791* 21.97 8.71 13.64 Area Boundary Illawarra Hwy HW25 Illawarra MR262 HW1 2.655 36,300 75.62 32.41 39.80 Hwy Tongarra Rd Southern MR262 HW1 Study Area 2.220 42,564 78.86 37.11 46.97 Tongarra Rd Boundary HW1 Princes Western Study HW25 2.240 15,513^ 31.54 12.61 23.65 Highway Area Boundary HW1 Princes Western Study MR262 2.122 11,152^ 46.31 32.42 46.31 Highway Area Boundary Average rates for Urban Divided Road, Road Safety Indicator 53.85 23.38 30.83 2006-2011 * AADT has been interpolated for 2011 from counts in 2009 and 2013 to be consistent with other count data ^ ADT from 2011 has been used in place of AADT as no AADT data is currently available. The ADT has not been scaled for seasonal variations.
The two sections of the Princes Highway from the Illawarra Highway to Tongarra Rd and Tongarra Rd to the southern boundary of the study area are higher in all 3 categories than the average by roughly 40%. These 3 measures take into account the high traffic volumes through the study area
11 and the variable lengths to show that there is an increased safety risk compared to the average urban divided road in RMS Southern Region.
5.4 Crash and Casualty Rates per Kilometre per Year Another road safety indicator is crash rates per kilometre per year, removing the use of traffic volume from the calculation. The crash, casualty and casualties’ rate per kilometre per year for each section of the study area are summarised in Table 5.4.1. Again, the sections of the Princes Highway from Illawarra Hwy to the southern boundary of the study area have relatively high crash rates per kilometre per year compared to the average for an urban divided road.
Table 5.4.1: Crash, Casualty and Casualties rates in Yallah to Oak Flats Study Area Road Length Crash Casualty Casualties Section From Section To Number (km) Rate/km/year Rate/km/year Rate/km/year Northern Study HW25 HW1 2.460 4.72 1.87 2.93 Area Boundary Illawarra Hwy HW25 Illawarra MR262 HW1 2.655 10.02 4.29 5.27 Hwy Tongarra Rd Southern MR262 HW1 Study Area 2.220 12.25 5.77 7.30 Tongarra Rd Boundary HW1 Princes Western Study HW25 2.240 1.79 0.71 1.34 Highway Area Boundary HW1 Princes Western Study MR262 2.122 1.89 1.32 1.89 Highway Area Boundary Average rates for Urban Divided Road, Road Safety 5.02 2.18 2.90 Indicator 2006-2011
12 5.5 Crash Costs The total cost to the community of all crashes within the study area is determined by utilising the generic crash costs based on the severity of the crash, as shown in Table 5.5.1 and Table 5.5.2. The estimated generic cost per crash is based on the methodology developed in Austroads Guide to Project Evaluation Part 4: Project Evaluation Data, Table 4.3: Estimated Average Crash Costs by Severity Category. This methodology derives the generic crash cost for urban and rural areas by combining adjusted person casualty cost with details of casualty outcomes associated with each crash category. The figures are based on June 2010 values and are the NSW cost per crash figures.
Table 5.5.1 Total Cost to the Community for Entire Study Area Degree of Crash Number of Crashes Cost per Crash Total Cost Fatal 2 $1,999,000 $3,998,000 Injury 164 $195,615 $32,080,860 Non-injury 201 $8,681 $1,744,881 Total 367 $37,823,741
Table 5.5.2 Total Cost to the Community for the Princes Highway Degree of Crash Number of Crashes Cost per Crash Total Cost Fatal 1 $1,999,000 $1,999,000 Injury 143 $195,615 $27,972,945 Non-injury 183 $8,681 $1,588,623 Total 327 $31,560,568
Kendrick Westlake Joanne Parrott Road Safety Analyst Manager, Planning and Analysis 3/12/2013
13
ATTACHMENT H
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT REPORT
PRINCES MOTORWAY / PRINCES HIGHWAY CORRIDOR “YALLAH TO OAK FLATS” ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT REPORT
FOR
ROADS AND MARITIME SOUTHERN REGION
Gold Coast Brisbane Sydney Suite 26, 58 Riverwalk Avenue Level 2, 428 Upper Edward Street Studio 203, 3 Gladstone Street Robina QLD 4226 Spring Hill QLD 4000 Newtown NSW 2042 P: (07) 5562 5377 P: (07) 3831 4442 P: (02) 9557 6202 W: www.bitziosconsulting.com.au E: [email protected] Project No: P1251 Version No: 002 Issue date: 30 October 2013 Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Corridor – Yallah to Oak Flats Economic Assessment Report
DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Issue History
Report File Name Prepared by Reviewed by Issued by Date Issued to P1288.001R – F6 Corridor (Yallah to Oak Flats) A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 28 May 2013 P.Hawkins (RMS) Economic Assessment Report P1288.002R – F6 Corridor (Yallah to Oak Flats) A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 28 August 2013 P.Hawkins (RMS) Economic Assessment Report P1288.003R – Princes Hwy Y2OF Economic A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 4 October 2013 P.Hawkins (RMS) Assessment Report
Copyright in the information and data in this document is the property of Bitzios Consulting. This document and its information and data is for the use of the authorised recipient and this document may not be used, copied or reproduced in whole or in part for any purpose other than for which it was supplied by Bitzios Consulting. Bitzios Consulting makes no representation, undertakes no duty and accepts no responsibility to any third party who may use or rely upon this document or its information and data.
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CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 2
1.1 PURPOSE 2 1.2 PARAMETERS 2 1.3 BENEFITS AND COSTS CONSIDERED 2 1.4 CONFIGURATION 2 1.4.1 Base Case 2 1.4.2 Project Case 3 1.5 ASSUMPTIONS 4 2. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS...... 6
2.1 COSTS 6 2.1.1 Capital Costs 6 2.1.2 Maintenance Costs 6 2.2 BENEFITS 7 2.2.1 Travel Time 7 2.2.2 Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) 8 2.2.3 Crashes 10 2.2.4 Emissions and Other Externalities 11 2.2.5 Residual Asset Value 12 2.2.6 Traffic Impacts from Flooding 12 3. RESULTS ...... 15
3.1 COMPARISON OF BENEFITS AND COSTS 15 3.2 RESULTS SUMMARY 19 3.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis 19 3.2.2 Project Benefits Summary 20 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION...... 21
4.1 CONCLUSIONS 21 4.2 RECOMMENDATION 21 5. REFERENCES ...... 22
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Tables Table 2.1: Capital Cost Table 2.2: Rates for Road Maintenance Table 2.3: Additional Maintenance Cost (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) Table 2.4: Vehicle Minutes Travelled (VMT) Annual Benefits – Light Vehicles Table 2.5: Vehicle Minutes Travelled (VMT) Annual Benefits – Heavy Vehicles Table 2.6: Travel Time Unit rates – per vehicle Table 2.7: Travel Time Benefit Range (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) Table 2.8: Vehicle Kilometres Travelled – Light Vehicles Table 2.9: Vehicle Kilometres Travelled – Heavy Vehicles Table 2.10: Vehicle Operating Unit Costs Table 2.11: Vehicle Operating Cost Range (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) Table 2.12: Crash Rates Table 2.13: Forecast Crash Reduction Range Table 2.14: Crash Benefits Summary (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) Table 2.15: Residual Asset Value Table 2.16: Residual Asset Value Summary (2013$, 7% Discount Rate)
Table 3.1: Scenario 1 - Original Alignment & WOLSH Model Costs Table 3.2: Scenario 2 - Original Alignment & Time Only Model Costs Table 3.3: Scenario 3 - Shorter Alignment & WOLSH Model Costs Table 3.4: Scenario 4 - Shorter Alignment & Time Only Model Costs Table 3.5: Economic Assessment Results Summary
Figures Figure 1.1: Base Case Network Figure 1.2: Project Case Network
Appendices Appendix A: TfNSW Expansion Factor Advice
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this report is to document a “high level” assessment of the economic costs and benefits of the proposed Princes Motorway / Princes Highway project between Yallah and Oaks Flats. The project includes the construction of a new limited access highway with a posted speed limited of 100km/h. The new highway is proposed to bypass Albion Park Rail. The upgrade includes the construction of a dual carriageway highway with modifications to the existing Oak Flats interchange and to the Tallawarra and Haywards Bays interchanges. Two new interchanges at Croome Road and Tongarra Road are also included as part of the project. The project was initially devised in the mid-90’s and there is some lingering concern that it will not attract a high volume of traffic and that travel time benefits are insufficient to offset an additional travel distance of 3km compared to the alternative Princes Highway route (ie 10.3km for the new route compared to 7.3km for the current route). An alternative, shorter route was subsequently also given due consideration as part of this economic assessment. The Wollongong and Shellharbour Strategic Transport Model (WOLSH) was used to assess the travel benefits of the proposal. The original model was calibrated using both travel time and travel distance as part of the generalised cost and was based on a region-wide peak hour demand profile. Further interrogation of traffic data within the study area suggested that a ‘flat’ peak hour profile exists in both the morning and evening periods. This profile is likely to further flatten as traffic demand increases. The flat profile suggests an extended peak which may also imply that “travel time” would have an increased influence over “travel distance”. As such, “time only” cost skim factors should be considered for sensitivity testing. This is further discussed in the Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Corridor – Yallah to Oak Flats Traffic Study which was completed in conjunction with this report. The above-mentioned issues resulted in the consideration of a range of transport model scenarios to determine the potential economic benefits associated with the proposed project, including: Scenario 1: The original 10.3km bypass route, using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; Scenario 2: The original 10.3km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs; Scenario 3: A shorter 9.6km bypass route using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; and Scenario 4: A shorter 9.6km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs. This report presents the results of the analysis to determine the transport-related economic benefits for the Yallah to Oak Flats project. Quantified benefits include travel time savings, vehicle operating costs, crash cost savings and the residual infrastructure value. The economic assessment has been undertaken using analysis processes documented in the “Principles and Guidelines for Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives (March 2013)” prepared by Transport for NSW. The economic assessment for the scenarios tested for the Yallah to Oak Flats project return a BCR range of 2.24 to 2.76 and a NPV range of $755 million to $987 million (using discount rate of 7% in 2013 dollars) with capital expenditure of approximately $600 million for the original route and $550 million for the shorter route. The assessment has identified significant road user benefits over the 30 year period from 2020-2050 with travel time savings ranging between $1.37 billion to $1.56 billion (2013 dollars) and crash cost benefits of $26.3 million to $48.6 million (2013 dollars). The benefits are somewhat reduced by the high capital costs, ongoing additional maintenance costs, as well as the forecast increase in vehicle operating costs due to the additional distances travelled. A sensitivity analysis undertaken on the assumed discount rate as well as on the benefits and costs items resulted in a BCR range of 1.34 to 4.95.
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 PURPOSE This report assesses the economic merits of the proposed Yallah to Oak Flats project. The aims of this analysis were to: estimate the benefits and costs to the community of the new road section; and calculate the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Net Present Value (NPV) for the project case.
1.2 PARAMETERS The benefit cost analysis results are based on the following key assumptions: discount rate of 7% has been applied to test sensitivities; sensitivity tests included use a discount rate of 4% and 10%, a pessimistic view that the costs were increased by 20% and benefits reduced by 20%, and an optimistic view that the costs were reduced by 20% and the benefits increased by 20%; construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2020; and the evaluation period is 30 years (2020 - 2050).
1.3 BENEFITS AND COSTS CONSIDERED Benefits and costs that have been monetised in this BCR include: travel times; vehicle operating costs; crash costs; capital costs; maintenance / operational costs; and the residual life of the asset.
1.4 CONFIGURATION
1.4.1 Base Case The Base Case includes the existing traffic network within the study area as at June 2013. The Base Case network modelled is shown in Figure 1.1. It includes the Princes Highway from the Tallawarra Interchange to Oak Flats Interchange, Tongarra Road and the Illawarra Highway from Albion Park through to the Princes Highway as well as the Haywards Bay interchange. In the Base Case, the Illawarra Highway is known to flood on average five days per year. The closure of the Illawarra Highway was modelled with benefits obtained for five days per year added to the annual project benefits.
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Figure 1.1: Base Case Network
1.4.2 Project Case The project includes the construction of a new limited access highway with a posted speed limited of 100km/h. The new highway is proposed to bypass Albion Park Rail. The upgrade includes the construction of a dual carriageway highway with modifications to the existing Oak Flats interchange and also the Tallawarra and Haywards Bays interchanges. Two new interchanges are also included in the project at Croome Road and Tongarra Road. The proposed future configuration of Yallah to Oak Flats project is shown in Figure 1.2 below. Opportunities exist to reduce the length of the bypass by 700m. This can be achieved by traversing across the Croome Sports Complex area. The shorter alignment is also shown in Figure 1.2.
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Project Area
Shorter Alignment
Figure 1.2: Project Case Network This benefits and costs associated with this option have also been tested and results included in this benefit-cost assessment to provide a range of BCR values. The project benefits are derived from obtaining the difference in performance between the Base Case and Project Case. A positive outputted value represents a benefit, whilst a negative (-) value suggests that the performance measure being assessed has increased or worsened.
1.5 ASSUMPTIONS The Wollongong and Shellharbour Strategic Transport Model (WOLSH) was used to obtain the travel benefits. The original model was validated using both travel time and travel distance in the generalised cost formulation and was based on the region-wide peak hour traffic usage profile. Further interrogation into available traffic data within the study area suggested that a ‘flat’ peak hour profile exists in both the morning and evening periods and importantly, would be expected to exist in the future. In addition, the traffic distribution results in the local area suggest that the consideration of travel time only in the generalised cost is a more appropriate methodology for this study area. This is further discussed in the Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Corridor – Yallah to Oak Flats Traffic Study which was completed in conjunction with this report.
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The above-mentioned issues resulted in the view to consider a range of transport model scenarios in ascertaining the economic costs and benefits associated with the proposed project, including: Base Case (“Do Nothing” Model) of the Princes Highway in its current configuration; Project Case - Scenario 1: The original 10.6km bypass route, using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; Project Case - Scenario 2: The original 10.6km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs; Project Case - Scenario 3: A shorter 9.9km bypass route using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; and Project Case - Scenario 4: A shorter 9.9km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs. Further assumptions included: TRACKS Model results formed the basis for the determination of the road-user travel time benefits and the vehicle-kilometres travelled; the models output the 2011 and 2046 travel times and travel distances for both the base case and the project cases. AM peak and PM peak model periods were used for the assessment; as advised by TfNSW (refer Appendix A), the peak period benefits to daily benefits expansion factor specific to this project (based on local traffic count profiles supplied by RMS Southern Region), is: - (1hr AM + 1hr PM) x 6.22 as advised by TfNSW, the daily benefits expansion factor from daily benefits to yearly benefits is: - Daily Benefits x 349.5 days/year a 30 year assessment period was adopted; the assessment period was based on a ‘Year of Opening’ at 2020, and a ‘Future Assessment Year’ of 2050; crash benefits were calculated on the basis of the current crash rate noticed along the Princes Highway multiplied by the VKT along that corridor, as compared to the combined effect of the VKT along the Princes Highway and the VKT on the proposed bypass route (adopting a reduced crash rate consistent with the adjacent road section to the north and south); the crash rates adopted for the assessment of crash benefits are discussed in Section 2.2.3 of this report; and benefits associated with traffic impacts due to flooding of the Illawarra Highway have also been considered. The Illawarra Highway is closed on average five days per year.
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2. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
2.1 COSTS
2.1.1 Capital Costs The project cost expenditure profile is shown in Table 2.1 below for both the original route and the shortened route. It should be noted that these are strategic cost estimates based on minimal design investigations. Furthermore, the estimate for the shorter route does not include impacts relating to the existing sporting complex. Table 2.1: Capital Cost
Original Route Shorter Route Year (2013$) (2013$) 2012/13 $ 230,000 $ 230,000 2013/14 $ 1,430,830 $ 1,179,393 2014/15 $ 1,110,553 $ 942,929 2015/16 $ 1,580,000 $ 1,580,000 2016/17 $ 14,351,883 $ 13,623,368 2017/18 $ 117,819,096 $ 108,794,871 2018/19 $ 273,645,991 $ 250,944,406 2019/20 $ 187,310,183 $ 171,861,460 2020/21 $ 2,439,761 $ 2,282,595 TOTAL $ 599,918,297 $ 551,439,022
Table 2.1 reveals a capital cost (strategic estimate) of approximately $600 million for the original route and $550 million for the shortened route.
2.1.2 Maintenance Costs The maintenance costs were adopted in accordance with TfNSW guidelines (Table 3.5). The 2011/2012 rates were escalated at 7% per annum to reflect 2013 dollars. Table 2.2 shows the rates adopted for road maintenance costs. Table 2.2: Rates for Road Maintenance Maintenance 2013 Maintenance Costs 2012 (@7%) (c/VKT) (c/VKT) Private Car CAR 3.78 4.04 Business Car Light CV TRUCK 12.99 13.90 Heavy CV The total additional road maintenance cost of the 30 year assessment period, as a result of the original project for the range of scenarios tested is shown in Table 2.3.
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Table 2.3: Additional Maintenance Cost (2013$, 7% Discount Rate)
Original Alignment Shorter Alignment PROJECT 30yr ADDITIONAL WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY MAINTENANCE COSTS Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) $7,420,671 $10,962,935 $7,247,631 $9,505,915
2.2 BENEFITS
2.2.1 Travel Time Travel time benefits were obtained from the Wollongong and Shellharbour (WOLSH) TRACKS models. Table 2.4 (Light Vehicles) and Table 2.5 (Heavy Vehicles) below shows the average modelled travel time benefits in Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) for the base case and project cases in 2011, 2020, 2046 and 2050. The values below are inclusive of travel time benefits due to flood impacts. The benefits associated with flood impacts are further discussed in Section 2.2.6 below. Table 2.4: Vehicle Minutes Travelled (VMT) Annual Benefits – Light Vehicles
ANNUAL BENEFITS Original Alignment Shorter Alignment (Vehicle Minutes WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY Travelled) Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs 2011 (Model) 1,108,796 25,228,152 19,218,379 30,945,691 2020 (Interpolated) 137,986,122 167,611,941 153,358,242 172,235,175 2046 (Model) 533,409,510 578,942,887 540,873,401 580,404,795
2050 (Extrapolated) 594,243,878 642,224,571 600,491,118 643,200,121
Table 2.5: Vehicle Minutes Travelled (VMT) Annual Benefits – Heavy Vehicles
ANNUAL BENEFITS Original Alignment Shorter Alignment (Vehicle Minutes WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY Travelled) Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs 2011 (Model) 386,952 2,561,744 2,045,024 2,991,717 2020 (Interpolated) 12,629,618 15,601,634 14,307,562 16,028,772 2046 (Model) 47,997,317 53,272,425 49,732,672 53,691,373
2050 (Extrapolated) 53,438,502 59,067,931 55,182,689 59,485,619
Travel time benefits form the largest proportion of road-user benefits. Traffic modelling indicated that motorists in the base case are expected to suffer long delays in future years along the Princes Highway. Whilst not eliminating delays along the existing Princes Highway, the project cases will substantially reduce delays for road users. Table 2.4 shows that as we move further towards the outer years, the comparative level of travel benefits obtained between the shorter route and the original route diminish. It should be re-iterated however that the shorter route comes as a substantial cost saving as outlined within Table 2.1. The annual travel time benefits summary show that there is a significant difference in benefits when comparing the ‘time only’ and ‘validated time and distance’ costs. It also appears to be more sensitive for the longer distant original route, which is logical as the route is influenced greater by distance. The above
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assessment summary highlights the potential benefits range likely to be providing depending on the local driver behaviour in relation to perceived travel costs relating to both time and distance. The unit cost for travel time savings used in the benefit-cost analysis are shown in Table 2.6. These values were derived from TfNSW guidelines (Table 5). Vehicle proportion assumptions were made for the road section and are also included in Table 2.6. Table 2.6: Travel Time Unit rates – per vehicle
2013 Rates 2013 Weighted 2012 Rates Travel Time Costs (2.5% - CPI) % Vehicle Rate ($/VHT) ($/VHT) ($/VHT) Private Car $23.39 $23.97 80% CAR $30.91 Business Car $57.24 $58.67 20% Light CV $31.67 $32.46 80% TRUCK $31.14 Heavy CV $25.20 $25.83 20% The adopted proportion of 80% light commercial vehicles and 20% heavy commercial vehicles is based on manual intersection count data obtained in 2009 at the Princes Highway / Illawarra Highway roundabout for through traffic. The TfNSW Economic Appraisal Guidelines states that “the vehicle composition and the proportion of private and business car is estimated using the 2010 ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use. Private car accounts for 77% and business car 23% of car trips.” These proportions are for a rural area. For this assessment, a proportion of 80% private car and 20% business car travel has been used which is consistent other motorway economic appraisals completed by Bitzios Consulting across south east Queensland. The travel time benefits were interpolated between 2020 and 2050 to provide annual values. The annual benefit was calculated on the basis of the assumptions described in section 1.5 of this report. The total travel time benefit (using a 7% discount rate, 2013 dollars) for the range of project cases tested is shown in Table 2.7. Table 2.7: Travel Time Benefit Range (2013$, 7% Discount Rate)
Original Alignment Shorter Alignment PROJECT 30yr TRAVEL TIME ONLY TIME ONLY TIME BENEFITS WOLSH Validated WOLSH Validated Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) $1,371,425,850 $1,539,316,246 $1,428,665,431 $1,555,997,312
The above tables re-iterate that the shorter alignment provides a slightly higher benefits range as compared to the ‘original alignment’. The ‘time only’ scenarios reduces the influence of distance, with route choice based on the quickest travel path, and as such, the ‘time only’ scenarios offer little difference in travel time benefits obtained. The ‘time and distance’ (WOLSH Validated) scenarios contain reduced benefits, as route choice is influenced by distance and for much of the earlier years of assessment a large portion of through traffic is retained on the existing Princes Highway, willing to accept higher levels of delay due to the influence of ‘distance’ as opposed to using the bypass. As congestion builds however in future years, time because a more significant influence on total trip cost compared to trip distances which are essentially fixed within a reasonable range.
2.2.2 Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) The project case results in a substantial increase in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). Table 2.8 (Light Vehicles) and Table 2.9 (Heavy Vehicles) shows the travel distance increases between the base case and project case scenarios tested. The values below are inclusive of vehicle kilometres travelled due to flood impacts. The benefits/costs associated with flood impacts are further discussed in Section 2.2.6 below.
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Table 2.8: Vehicle Kilometres Travelled – Light Vehicles
ANNUAL BENEFITS Original Alignment Shorter Alignment (Vehicle Kilometres WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY Travelled) Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs
2011 (Model) -17,692,787 -33,196,221 -20,250,575 -27,928,500
2020 (Interpolated) -18,158,585 -30,056,332 -19,233,675 -26,084,767
2046 (Model) -19,504,225 -20,985,543 -16,295,965 -20,758,429
2050 (Extrapolated) -19,711,247 -19,590,037 -15,844,009 -19,938,992
Table 2.9: Vehicle Kilometres Travelled – Heavy Vehicles
ANNUAL BENEFITS Original Alignment Shorter Alignment (Vehicle Kilometres WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY Travelled) Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs
2011 (Model) -1,217,378 -2,617,021 -1,439,184 -2,176,023
2020 (Interpolated) -1,329,178 -2,587,231 -1,468,800 -2,050,411
2046 (Model) -1,652,156 -2,501,171 -1,554,359 -1,687,530
2050 (Extrapolated) -1,701,845 -2,487,931 -1,567,522 -1,631,702
The above tables show the ‘time only’ models to have a reduced influence on ‘distance’ with the bypass more readily used for through traffic. The ‘time and distance’ (WOLSH Validated) models show a much lesser change in VKT between 2011 and 2046 which suggests that the shorter distance of the Princes Highway route is heavily influencing route choice. The above sensitive tests provide a range for which he likely result will reside. The WOLSH Validated ‘time and distance’ cost factors are based on the city-wide traffic operations within the Wollongong and Shellharbour Local Government area and may not necessarily be reflective of the travel behaviours in the study area. Travel patterns in the Princes Highway / Princes Motorway corridor are more typical of an urban motorway environment where motorists are less likely to be influenced by distance. This is reinforced by the traffic profile, where the traffic peak profile in the area is much flatter than other parts of Wollongong, which is more consistent with congested urban motorway environments rather than local regional roads. Hence, whilst the ‘time only’ cost assignment method may be more likely to result, the two tests undertaken provide a benefits range. The unit costs for calculating the VKT costs were obtained from the TfNSW guidelines (Table 7, 100km/h speed). Table 2.10 summarises the cost rates adopted for this assessment. Table 2.10: Vehicle Operating Unit Costs
2013 Rates 2013 Weighted 2012 Rates Operating Costs (@7%) % Vehicle Rate (c/VKT) (c/VKT) (c/VKT) Private Car $0.31 $0.33 80% CAR $0.38 Business Car $0.54 $0.57 20% Light CV $0.36 $0.39 80% TRUCK $0.47 Heavy CV $0.75 $0.80 20% The total additional vehicle operating costs (using a 7% discount rate, 2013 dollars) for the project case scenarios are shown in Table 2.11.
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Table 2.11: Vehicle Operating Cost Range (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) - Benefits
Original Alignment Shorter Alignment PROJECT 30yr VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS - WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY BENEFITS Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) -$64,983,492 -$94,420,369 -$63,383,912 -$83,842,396
Table 2.11 shows that all scenarios tested result in a dis-benefit in vehicle operating costs when comparing the project case to the base case. This is due to all scenarios tested having increased VKT’s, which in turn attracts additional vehicle operating costs. The VOC range shows that under the ‘time only’ model costs, the shorter alignment offers a substantial reduction in VOC. Under the ‘time and distance’ (WOLSH Validated) models there is a lower number of through vehicles using the bypass, and subsequently the net increase in VOC is less noticeable.
2.2.3 Crashes There have been a total of 348 reported crashes along the project section over a five year period between April 2006 and March 2011. Table 2.12 shows the actual crash rates for the relevant road sections in the study area from crashes that have occurred over the above-stated five year period. Table 2.12: Crash Rates
Road From To Length (km) Crash Rate per 100MVKT
HW1 Princes Motorway HW25 2.46 22.28 HW1 HW25 Tongarra Rd 2.66 82.53 HW1 Tongarra Rd Oak Flats 2.22 75.75 HW25 HW1 Tongarra Rd 2.24 21.63
The crash rate recorded on the recently upgraded sections of the Princes Highway to the north and south is 12.5 crashes per 100MVKT. Comparing the base and project case VKT’s on each of the above road sections and multiplying them by the relevant crash rates results in the below summarised crash benefit range associated with the scenarios tested (refer Table 2.13). Table 2.13: Forecast Crash Reduction Range
Original Alignment Shorter Alignment # of Reduced Crashes Per Annum WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs
Expected Crash Reduction at Year of Opening 10.84 28.45 20.85 30.68
Expected Crash Reduction at End Year 20.80 33.39 28.20 33.94
The average cost of crash was obtained from the TfNSW guidelines (Table 40) - $92,670 per crash (2011/12$). This was escalated at 7% to reflect 2013 dollars resulting in an average crash cost of $99,157 (2013$). A summary of the crash benefits in 2013 dollars using a 7% discount rate for the range of scenarios tested is shown in Table 2.14.
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Table 2.14: Crash Benefits Summary (2013$, 7% Discount Rate)
Original Alignment Shorter Alignment PROJECT 30yr TIME ONLY TIME ONLY CRASH BENEFITS WOLSH Validated WOLSH Validated Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) $11,711,440 $24,911,150 $19,281,912 $26,300,719
The above table shows crash benefits across the scenarios tested that is reflected of the level of traffic that is diverted from the existing poorer performing Princes Highway onto the proposed bypass. As such, the ‘time only’ model scenarios show increased overall network safety benefits. Likewise, the shorter alignment also shows increased crash benefits.
2.2.4 Emissions and Other Externalities Environmental dis-benefits (such as noise, air pollution, etc) are identified in the TfNSW guidelines. In regards to these costs they are all related to vehicle kilometres travelled and identified as a cost. The proposed bypass is a longer route than the existing, however these environmental factors will substantially worsen for the existing route if it is not improved. The factors provided in the TfNSW guidelines because they only relate to kilometres travelled do not take into account the substantial improvement to the existing route and therefore have not been used for this economic analysis for the reasons listed below. When more detailed information is known about these external factors they will be incorporated into the economic analysis. Air pollution / greenhouse gas emissions The traffic model used for the traffic modelling is a broad strategic model and does not take into account increased fuel consumption or emissions associated with congestion related stop start motoring. The modelling shows that there would be substantially improved traffic congestion as a result of the bypass. In the 2046 year it is the difference between travel times of 43 minutes and 6.5 minutes, as such it is expected that additional air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions emitted by the additional travel distance would be mitigated by the substantial savings due to reduced congestion. When more detailed traffic modelling is undertaken that can quantify the likely impacts from the additional traffic congestion the economic analysis will be reviewed and updated to include this. Noise The proposed bypass would take a substantial amount of traffic noise away from the existing Princes Highway and change the source to a new location. The existing Princes Highway is built up with a large number of residential properties that are exposed to traffic noise, the new bypass will be constructed with noise mitigation which has already been taken into account in the strategic estimate for the project. As such there noise impact from the project is not clear. As such the additional costs added to the proposed project has not been factored into the economic analysis. When more detailed noise assessment has been undertaken that can quantify the likely impacts from the proposed bypass the economic analysis will be reviewed and updated to include this. Water pollution / nature and landscape / upstream and downstream The additional impacts of the proposed project on water, nature and landscape and upstream and downstream are not expected to be substantial. The proposed bypass is located within a largely cleared corridor and there is minimal treatment of stormwater from the existing route and likely to be improved as part of the proposed bypass. Impacts to water bodies and the landscape will be managed during the project and it is not expected that these would be a substantial dis-benefit. More detailed knowledge of the impacts to water, nature and landscape and upstream will be investigated during the concept design and environmental assessment. When more detailed information regarding water
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pollution and nature landscape are known that can quantify the likely impacts from the proposed bypass the economic analysis will be reviewed and updated to include this. Urban separation The current township of Albion Park Rail experiences barriers and urban separation due to the volume of traffic that is located within the centre of the town. It is also noted that there will be substantial impacts in the future due to increased congestion in the area. The proposed bypass would remove the traffic considerably within the Albion Park Rail township and improve urban separation. The proposed bypass would not substantially change existing access, some smaller changes would be required but in terms of urban separation the proposed bypass would look at facilitation the majority of the existing access arrangements. More detailed knowledge of the impacts to urban separation will be investigated during the concept design and environmental assessment. When these are known the economic analysis will be reviewed and updated to include this factor.
2.2.5 Residual Asset Value The residual asset value has been calculated in accordance with the TfNSW guidelines which gives consideration of the residual life of an asset beyond the economic assessment period. The capital cost and likely remaining value of key infrastructure items are shown in Table 2.15. The residual life proportions are based on the infrastructure items expected design life as outlined in the TfNSW guidelines (Table 60). Table 2.15: Residual Asset Value
Original Alignment Shorter Alignment Asset Residual Component Life Capital Cost Residual Value ($) Capital Cost Residual Value ($)
Bridges 70% $250,000,000 $ 175,000,000 $ 229,766,942 $ 160,836,859
Culverts 60% $20,000,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 18,381,355 $ 11,028,813
Pavements 30% $50,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ 45,953,388 $ 13,786,017
TOTAL $ 202,000,000 TOTAL $ 185,651,689
The residual asset value for the range of scenarios tested is shown in Table 2.16. Table 2.16: Residual Asset Value Summary (2013$, 7% Discount Rate)
PROJECT 30yr Original Alignment Shorter Alignment RESIDUAL ASSET VALUE (2013$, 7% Discount Rate) $16,525,385 $15,187,949
2.2.6 Traffic Impacts from Flooding The Illawarra Region is renowned for having roads closed due to flooding. Based on the last five years of asset management information, the Illawarra Highway has been closed for four and a half days per year due to flooding. This has a cost impact on the travelling public, and as such has been included in this assessment. The windowed area traffic model was run with the Illawarra Highway closed and travel benefits obtained comparing the project case to the base case (with the Illawarra Highway closed). The
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travel benefits for this test were converted to daily benefits and then factored to reflect the number of days the road is typically closed per year. The travel time benefits due to flooding result in approximately 2-3% of additional benefits in the future assessment year.
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Table 2.20: Vehicle Kilometres Travelled Comparison due to Flooding – Heavy Vehicles
ANNUAL BENEFITS Original Alignment Shorter Alignment (Vehicle Kilometres Travelled) WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY WOLSH Validated TIME ONLY FLOOD IMPACTS Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs Model Costs 2011 (Model) -1,306 -21,397 -4,416 -15,177 2020 (Interpolated) -770 -18,998 -2,729 -11,426 2046 (Model) 778 -12,067 2,146 -591 2050 (Extrapolated) 1,016 -11,001 2,896 1,076
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3. RESULTS
3.1 COMPARISON OF BENEFITS AND COSTS The Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) were tested across a range of discounted rates. The discount rates tested were 4%p.a., 7%p.a. and 10% p.a. As previously stated a number of road network and transport model cost scenarios were also tested including: Scenario 1: The original 10.3km bypass route, using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; Scenario 2: The original 10.3km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs; Scenario 3: A shorter 9.6km bypass route using the existing validated WOLSH generalised costs; and Scenario 4: A shorter 9.6km bypass route, using ‘time only’ generalised costs. The NPV and BCR for each of these scenarios for the 7% discount rate are shown in Table 3.1 to Table 3.4.
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Table 3.1: Scenario 1 - Original Alignment & WOLSH Model Costs
BCR RESULTS TABLE@ 7% DISCOUNT RATE Cost (2013$) Benefit (2013$) Vehicle Net Benefit Cost Capital Cost Maintenance Crash Residual Life Year Total Cost Travel Time Operating Total Benefit (2013$) (2013$) Cost Costs of Asset Costs 0 $599,918,297 $0 $599,918,297 $48,874,011 -$4,688,436 $669,478 $ 72,027,414 -$ 527,890,883 1 $537,257 $537,257 $50,694,055 -$4,396,543 $644,840 $ 46,942,352 $ 46,405,095 2 $504,183 $504,183 $52,066,789 -$4,122,776 $620,560 $ 48,564,574 $ 48,060,391 3 $473,136 $473,136 $53,042,950 -$3,866,012 $596,697 $ 49,773,636 $ 49,300,499 4 $443,994 $443,994 $53,668,551 -$3,625,198 $573,301 $ 50,616,654 $ 50,172,659 5 $416,640 $416,640 $53,985,282 -$3,399,347 $550,412 $ 51,136,346 $ 50,719,706 6 $390,965 $390,965 $54,030,878 -$3,187,531 $528,064 $ 51,371,410 $ 50,980,445 7 $366,866 $366,866 $53,839,459 -$2,988,881 $506,284 $ 51,356,862 $ 50,989,996 8 $344,247 $344,247 $53,441,842 -$2,802,580 $485,094 $ 51,124,356 $ 50,780,109 9 $323,017 $323,017 $52,865,824 -$2,627,863 $464,510 $ 50,702,471 $ 50,379,454 10 $303,092 $303,092 $52,136,450 -$2,464,012 $444,543 $ 50,116,982 $ 49,813,890 11 $284,391 $284,391 $51,276,251 -$2,310,352 $425,201 $ 49,391,100 $ 49,106,708 12 $266,840 $266,840 $50,305,465 -$2,166,252 $406,486 $ 48,545,699 $ 48,278,859 13 $250,368 $250,368 $49,242,243 -$2,031,117 $388,401 $ 47,599,526 $ 47,349,158 14 $234,910 $234,910 $48,102,834 -$1,904,393 $370,942 $ 46,569,383 $ 46,334,473 15 $220,402 $220,402 $46,901,758 -$1,785,557 $354,105 $ 45,470,305 $ 45,249,903 16 $206,787 $206,787 $45,651,958 -$1,674,119 $337,883 $ 44,315,723 $ 44,108,935 17 $194,011 $194,011 $44,364,952 -$1,569,619 $322,269 $ 43,117,601 $ 42,923,590 18 $182,021 $182,021 $43,050,955 -$1,471,628 $307,251 $ 41,886,578 $ 41,704,557 19 $170,769 $170,769 $41,719,008 -$1,379,740 $292,819 $ 40,632,087 $ 40,461,318 20 $160,211 $160,211 $40,377,082 -$1,293,576 $278,960 $ 39,362,466 $ 39,202,256 21 $150,303 $150,303 $39,032,185 -$1,212,781 $265,662 $ 38,085,065 $ 37,934,762 22 $141,006 $141,006 $37,690,447 -$1,137,021 $252,909 $ 36,806,335 $ 36,665,329 23 $132,282 $132,282 $36,357,212 -$1,065,983 $240,688 $ 35,531,917 $ 35,399,635 24 $124,096 $124,096 $35,037,110 -$999,374 $228,984 $ 34,266,720 $ 34,142,624 25 $116,415 $116,415 $33,734,128 -$936,917 $217,781 $ 33,014,991 $ 32,898,577 26 $109,208 $109,208 $32,451,676 -$878,355 $207,064 $ 31,780,384 $ 31,671,176 27 $102,445 $102,445 $31,192,644 -$823,446 $196,817 $ 30,566,015 $ 30,463,570 28 $96,100 $96,100 $29,959,457 -$771,962 $187,024 $ 29,374,520 $ 29,278,419 29 $90,147 $90,147 $28,754,122 -$723,690 $177,670 $ 28,208,103 $ 28,117,956 30 $84,561 $84,561 $27,578,273 -$678,430 $168,740 $16,525,385 $ 43,593,969 $ 43,509,407 Total $599,918,297 $7,420,671 $607,338,968 $1,371,425,850 -$64,983,492 $11,711,440 $16,525,385$ 1,361,851,545 $ 754,512,577
BCR 2.24 NPVI 1.26 FYRR 12.01% IRR 11.94%
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Table 3.2: Scenario 2 - Original Alignment & Time Only Model Costs
BCR RESULTS TABLE@ 7% DISCOUNT RATE Cost (2013$) Benefit (2013$) Vehicle Net Benefit Cost Capital Cost Maintenance Crash Residual Life Year Total Cost Travel Time Operating Total Benefit (2013$) (2013$) Cost Costs of Asset Costs 0 $599,918,297 $0 $599,918,297 $59,250,581 -$7,872,985 $1,756,516 $ 85,321,773 -$ 514,596,524 1 $908,339 $908,339 $60,593,235 -$7,279,812 $1,651,119 $ 54,964,542 $ 54,056,203 2 $840,989 $840,989 $61,506,630 -$6,730,555 $1,551,994 $ 56,328,070 $ 55,487,080 3 $778,564 $778,564 $62,041,187 -$6,222,007 $1,458,773 $ 57,277,952 $ 56,499,388 4 $720,707 $720,707 $62,242,562 -$5,751,192 $1,371,106 $ 57,862,475 $ 57,141,768 5 $667,089 $667,089 $62,152,061 -$5,315,350 $1,288,666 $ 58,125,378 $ 57,458,289 6 $617,401 $617,401 $61,807,014 -$4,911,920 $1,211,145 $ 58,106,239 $ 57,488,838 7 $571,360 $571,360 $61,241,111 -$4,538,526 $1,138,252 $ 57,840,836 $ 57,269,477 8 $528,700 $528,700 $60,484,727 -$4,192,965 $1,069,712 $ 57,361,473 $ 56,832,774 9 $489,176 $489,176 $59,565,206 -$3,873,194 $1,005,269 $ 56,697,281 $ 56,208,104 10 $452,562 $452,562 $58,507,131 -$3,577,316 $944,679 $ 55,874,493 $ 55,421,932 11 $418,644 $418,644 $57,332,565 -$3,303,575 $887,714 $ 54,916,705 $ 54,498,061 12 $387,227 $387,227 $56,061,279 -$3,050,340 $834,160 $ 53,845,100 $ 53,457,873 13 $358,129 $358,129 $54,710,955 -$2,816,099 $783,814 $ 52,678,669 $ 52,320,540 14 $331,181 $331,181 $53,297,375 -$2,599,452 $736,484 $ 51,434,407 $ 51,103,226 15 $306,226 $306,226 $51,834,595 -$2,399,099 $691,993 $ 50,127,489 $ 49,821,263 16 $283,119 $283,119 $50,335,101 -$2,213,835 $650,171 $ 48,771,437 $ 48,488,319 17 $261,725 $261,725 $48,809,959 -$2,042,544 $610,860 $ 47,378,275 $ 47,116,551 18 $241,918 $241,918 $47,268,942 -$1,884,189 $573,909 $ 45,958,662 $ 45,716,744 19 $223,582 $223,582 $45,720,653 -$1,737,812 $539,179 $ 44,522,020 $ 44,298,438 20 $206,611 $206,611 $44,172,641 -$1,602,523 $506,537 $ 43,076,654 $ 42,870,044 21 $190,903 $190,903 $42,631,494 -$1,477,498 $475,857 $ 41,629,854 $ 41,438,951 22 $176,365 $176,365 $41,102,941 -$1,361,973 $447,025 $ 40,187,993 $ 40,011,627 23 $162,913 $162,913 $39,591,929 -$1,255,239 $419,928 $ 38,756,617 $ 38,593,704 24 $150,467 $150,467 $38,102,705 -$1,156,642 $394,463 $ 37,340,526 $ 37,190,059 25 $138,951 $138,951 $36,638,885 -$1,065,573 $370,533 $ 35,943,845 $ 35,804,893 26 $128,298 $128,298 $35,203,519 -$981,470 $348,045 $ 34,570,095 $ 34,441,797 27 $118,445 $118,445 $33,799,150 -$903,810 $326,915 $ 33,222,254 $ 33,103,809 28 $109,331 $109,331 $32,427,863 -$832,111 $307,059 $ 31,902,812 $ 31,793,480 29 $100,903 $100,903 $31,091,342 -$765,924 $288,402 $ 30,613,820 $ 30,512,917 30 $93,110 $93,110 $29,790,907 -$704,837 $270,872 $16,525,385 $ 45,882,328 $ 45,789,218 Total $599,918,297 $10,962,935 $610,881,232 $1,539,316,246 -$94,420,369 $24,911,150 $16,525,385$ 1,518,520,073 $ 907,638,841
BCR 2.49 NPVI 1.51 FYRR 14.22% IRR 12.80%
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Table 3.3: Scenario 3 - Shorter Alignment & WOLSH Model Costs BCR RESULTS TABLE@ 7% DISCOUNT RATE Cost (2013$) Benefit (2013$) Vehicle Net Benefit Cost Capital Cost Maintenance Crash Residual Life Year Total Cost Travel Time Operating Total Benefit (2013$) (2013$) Cost Costs of Asset Costs 0 $551,439,022 $0 $551,439,022 $54,223,381 -$4,983,562 $1,287,623 $ 81,136,030 -$ 470,302,992 1 $569,185 $569,185 $55,591,934 -$4,633,425 $1,217,513 $ 52,176,022 $ 51,606,837 2 $529,712 $529,712 $56,549,357 -$4,307,771 $1,151,065 $ 53,392,651 $ 52,862,939 3 $492,967 $492,967 $57,143,584 -$4,004,896 $1,088,100 $ 54,226,789 $ 53,733,822 4 $458,763 $458,763 $57,418,039 -$3,723,213 $1,028,448 $ 54,723,274 $ 54,264,511 5 $426,924 $426,924 $57,412,019 -$3,461,245 $971,943 $ 54,922,717 $ 54,495,792 6 $397,288 $397,288 $57,161,045 -$3,217,618 $918,430 $ 54,861,857 $ 54,464,568 7 $369,702 $369,702 $56,697,194 -$2,991,055 $867,759 $ 54,573,898 $ 54,204,196 8 $344,026 $344,026 $56,049,393 -$2,780,364 $819,787 $ 54,088,817 $ 53,744,791 9 $320,126 $320,126 $55,243,696 -$2,584,439 $774,378 $ 53,433,635 $ 53,113,509 10 $297,881 $297,881 $54,303,534 -$2,402,249 $731,402 $ 52,632,687 $ 52,334,805 11 $277,177 $277,177 $53,249,949 -$2,232,837 $690,734 $ 51,707,847 $ 51,430,670 12 $257,907 $257,907 $52,101,806 -$2,075,309 $652,258 $ 50,678,755 $ 50,420,848 13 $239,972 $239,972 $50,875,985 -$1,928,836 $615,859 $ 49,563,008 $ 49,323,036 14 $223,279 $223,279 $49,587,564 -$1,792,646 $581,431 $ 48,376,349 $ 48,153,070 15 $207,744 $207,744 $48,249,980 -$1,666,020 $548,872 $ 47,132,832 $ 46,925,088 16 $193,286 $193,286 $46,875,179 -$1,548,289 $518,085 $ 45,844,975 $ 45,651,689 17 $179,830 $179,830 $45,473,757 -$1,438,833 $488,977 $ 44,523,901 $ 44,344,070 18 $167,308 $167,308 $44,055,079 -$1,337,071 $461,460 $ 43,179,468 $ 43,012,160 19 $155,654 $155,654 $42,627,402 -$1,242,466 $435,450 $ 41,820,386 $ 41,664,732 20 $144,809 $144,809 $41,197,974 -$1,154,516 $410,869 $ 40,454,327 $ 40,309,517 21 $134,717 $134,717 $39,773,136 -$1,072,757 $387,640 $ 39,088,019 $ 38,953,302 22 $125,326 $125,326 $38,358,404 -$996,754 $365,692 $ 37,727,342 $ 37,602,016 23 $116,587 $116,587 $36,958,554 -$926,104 $344,957 $ 36,377,407 $ 36,260,820 24 $108,455 $108,455 $35,577,694 -$860,432 $325,370 $ 35,042,632 $ 34,934,177 25 $100,888 $100,888 $34,219,330 -$799,389 $306,869 $ 33,726,810 $ 33,625,922 26 $93,847 $93,847 $32,886,428 -$742,650 $289,396 $ 32,433,175 $ 32,339,328 27 $87,295 $87,295 $31,581,472 -$689,914 $272,896 $ 31,164,454 $ 31,077,159 28 $81,199 $81,199 $30,306,508 -$640,899 $257,317 $ 29,922,926 $ 29,841,727 29 $75,527 $75,527 $29,063,198 -$595,345 $242,608 $ 28,710,461 $ 28,634,934 30 $70,249 $70,249 $27,852,857 -$553,008 $228,722 $15,187,949 $ 42,716,519 $ 42,646,270 Total $551,439,022 $7,247,631 $558,686,654 $1,428,665,431 -$63,383,912 $19,281,912 $15,187,949$ 1,430,359,969 $ 871,673,315
BCR 2.56 NPVI 1.58 FYRR 14.71% IRR 13.02%
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Table 3.4: Scenario 4 - Shorter Alignment & Time Only Model Costs BCR RESULTS TABLE@ 7% DISCOUNT RATE Cost (2013$) Benefit (2013$) Vehicle Net Benefit Cost Capital Cost Maintenance Crash Residual Life Year Total Cost Travel Time Operating Total Benefit (2013$) (2013$) Cost Costs of Asset Costs 0 $551,439,022 $0 $551,439,022 $60,883,765 -$6,775,772 $1,894,672 $ 89,928,044 -$ 461,510,979 1 $773,951 $773,951 $62,083,011 -$6,283,349 $1,776,993 $ 57,576,654 $ 56,802,703 2 $717,756 $717,756 $62,864,772 -$5,826,357 $1,666,602 $ 58,705,017 $ 57,987,260 3 $665,602 $665,602 $63,278,541 -$5,402,266 $1,563,049 $ 59,439,324 $ 58,773,722 4 $617,200 $617,200 $63,369,120 -$5,008,728 $1,465,912 $ 59,826,305 $ 59,209,105 5 $572,282 $572,282 $63,177,025 -$4,643,560 $1,374,796 $ 59,908,261 $ 59,335,979 6 $530,600 $530,600 $62,738,854 -$4,304,734 $1,289,327 $ 59,723,447 $ 59,192,847 7 $491,922 $491,922 $62,087,625 -$3,990,367 $1,209,157 $ 59,306,416 $ 58,814,494 8 $456,034 $456,034 $61,253,091 -$3,698,708 $1,133,959 $ 58,688,342 $ 58,232,308 9 $422,736 $422,736 $60,262,023 -$3,428,132 $1,063,424 $ 57,897,315 $ 57,474,579 10 $391,843 $391,843 $59,138,473 -$3,177,129 $997,265 $ 56,958,609 $ 56,566,766 11 $363,183 $363,183 $57,904,017 -$2,944,295 $935,212 $ 55,894,933 $ 55,531,750 12 $336,596 $336,596 $56,577,975 -$2,728,328 $877,009 $ 54,726,656 $ 54,390,059 13 $311,933 $311,933 $55,177,614 -$2,528,017 $822,419 $ 53,472,015 $ 53,160,081 14 $289,057 $289,057 $53,718,332 -$2,342,239 $771,218 $ 52,147,311 $ 51,858,254 15 $267,839 $267,839 $52,213,832 -$2,169,948 $723,196 $ 50,767,080 $ 50,499,242 16 $248,159 $248,159 $50,676,276 -$2,010,175 $678,157 $ 49,344,258 $ 49,096,099 17 $229,909 $229,909 $49,116,428 -$1,862,021 $635,916 $ 47,890,324 $ 47,660,415 18 $212,984 $212,984 $47,543,786 -$1,724,647 $596,299 $ 46,415,438 $ 46,202,454 19 $197,290 $197,290 $45,966,699 -$1,597,279 $559,145 $ 44,928,565 $ 44,731,275 20 $182,737 $182,737 $44,392,480 -$1,479,194 $524,299 $ 43,437,584 $ 43,254,847 21 $169,244 $169,244 $42,827,503 -$1,369,724 $491,620 $ 41,949,398 $ 41,780,154 22 $156,735 $156,735 $41,277,296 -$1,268,246 $460,972 $ 40,470,021 $ 40,313,286 23 $145,138 $145,138 $39,746,624 -$1,174,184 $432,230 $ 39,004,671 $ 38,859,533 24 $134,388 $134,388 $38,239,567 -$1,087,000 $405,277 $ 37,557,843 $ 37,423,455 25 $124,423 $124,423 $36,759,585 -$1,006,199 $379,999 $ 36,133,385 $ 36,008,963 26 $115,186 $115,186 $35,309,586 -$931,317 $356,295 $ 34,734,564 $ 34,619,377 27 $106,626 $106,626 $33,891,981 -$861,927 $334,066 $ 33,364,120 $ 33,257,494 28 $98,693 $98,693 $32,508,737 -$797,630 $313,220 $ 32,024,327 $ 31,925,635 29 $91,341 $91,341 $31,161,426 -$738,057 $293,672 $ 30,717,042 $ 30,625,701 30 $84,529 $84,529 $29,851,266 -$682,864 $275,342 $15,187,949 $ 44,631,693 $ 44,547,164 Total $551,439,022 $9,505,915 $560,944,937 $1,555,997,312 -$83,842,396 $26,300,719 $15,187,949$ 1,547,568,961 $ 986,624,024
BCR 2.76 NPVI 1.79 FYRR 16.31% IRR 13.68%
The above scenarios tested shows that Scenario 4 provides the greatest net economic benefit with a BCR of 2.76.
3.2 RESULTS SUMMARY
3.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis Two sensitivity tests have been undertaken to better understand the range of BCR’s and NPV’s likely to be attributable to the Project Case. The sensitivity tests undertaken were as follows (using a discount rate of 7%): A pessimistic view with capital costs higher by 20% while benefits reduce by 20%; and An optimistic view of the project with benefits higher by 20% and capital costs lower by 20%.
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3.2.2 Project Benefits Summary The results of the sensitivity tests, along with testing of 4%, 7% and 10% discount rates for the four scenarios are summarised in Table 3.5. Table 3.5: Economic Assessment Results Summary
SENSITIVITY TEST #1 SENSITIVITY TEST #2 4% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 10% Discount Rate +20% COST & -20% -20% COST & + 20% BENEFIT @ 7% BENEFIT @ 7% Discount Rate Discount Rate
SCENARIO 1 - ORIGINAL ALIGNMENT WOLSH TIME AND DISTANCE MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 612,630,791 $ 607,338,968 $ 604,534,586 $ 728,806,762 $ 485,871,175 BENEFITS $ 2,497,533,578 $ 1,361,851,545 $ 809,409,751 $ 1,067,743,348 $ 1,601,615,022 NPV $ 1,884,902,787 $ 754,512,577 $ 204,875,165 $ 338,936,586 $ 1,115,743,847 BCR 4.08 2.24 1.34 1.47 3.30 NPVI 3.14 1.26 0.34 0.47 2.32 FYRR 12.01% 4.98% 11.22% IRR 11.94% 9.08% 14.21%
SCENARIO 2 - ORIGINAL ALIGNMENT TIME ONLY MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 618,200,375 $ 610,881,232 $ 606,891,846 $ 733,057,478 $ 488,704,985 BENEFITS $ 2,766,705,450 $ 1,518,520,073 $ 908,733,583 $ 1,189,065,929 $ 1,783,598,894 NPV $ 2,148,505,074 $ 907,638,841 $ 301,841,737 $ 456,008,451 $ 1,294,893,909 BCR 4.48 2.49 1.50 1.62 3.65 NPVI 3.58 1.51 0.50 0.63 2.70 FYRR 14.22% 5.90% 13.29% IRR 12.80% 9.71% 15.07%
SCENARI O 3 - SHORT ALIGNMENT WOLSH TIME AND DISTANCE MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 563,661,643 $ 558,686,654 $ 556,007,267 $ 670,423,984 $ 446,949,323 BENEFITS $ 2,603,223,148 $ 1,430,359,969 $ 856,942,521 $ 1,119,801,104 $ 1,679,701,657 NPV $ 2,039,561,505 $ 871,673,315 $ 300,935,254 $ 449,377,120 $ 1,232,752,334 BCR 4.62 2.56 1.54 1.67 3.76 NPVI 3.70 1.58 0.55 0.68 2.79 FYRR 14.71% 6.11% 13.74% IRR 13.02% 9.87% 15.28%
SCENARIO 4 - SHORT ALIGNMENT TIME ONLY MODEL COSTS
COSTS $ 567,350,798 $ 560,944,937 $ 557,467,436 $ 673,133,925 $ 448,755,950 BENEFITS $ 2,808,401,297 $ 1,547,568,961 $ 929,896,121 $ 1,210,914,867 $ 1,816,372,300 NPV $ 2,241,050,499 $ 986,624,024 $ 372,428,685 $ 537,780,942 $ 1,367,616,350 BCR 4.95 2.76 1.67 1.80 4.05 NPVI 4.06 1.79 0.68 0.81 3.10 FYRR 16.31% 6.77% 15.23% IRR 13.68% 10.35% 15.90% The results summary shows a BCR range of 1.34 to 4.95 for all the scenarios and sensitivity tests. Considering the results from the 7% discount rate scenarios, the BCR range was 2.24 to 2.76, with the Shorter Bypass Alignment scenarios offering approximately 10-12% higher BCR values.
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4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
4.1 CONCLUSIONS The following conclusions and recommendations are drawn from the economic appraisal: The results of the rapid appraisal show a good economic return for the project with a NPV ranging between $750 million to $990 million and a BCR range of 2.24 to 2.76 (7%p.a. discount, 2013 dollars); The assessment has identified significant road user benefits over the 30 year period from 2020-2050 with travel time savings ranging between $1.37 billion to $1.56 billion (2013 dollars) and crash cost benefits ranging between $12 million and $26 million (2013 dollars). These benefits however are reduced by the high capital costs along with a forecast increase in the ongoing additional maintenance costs and vehicle operating costs due to the additional distance travelled; and An optimistic view of the project produced a NPV of $1.4 billion and a BCR of 4.05 (7%p.a. discount, 2013 dollars).
4.2 RECOMMENDATION Based on the completed economic assessment, the project is economically viable in its current form. The shorter alignment has a reduced cost and offers a higher return on investment, and as such, should be investigated in future stages of the project to see whether it is viable.
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5. REFERENCES Princes Motorway / Princes Highway Corridor – “Yallah to Oak Flats” Traffic Study, Bitzios Consulting, (2013); Principles and Guidelines for the Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives, TfNSW (Economic Policy Strategy & Planning : Finance, Audit & Strategy), (March 2013); and Yallah to Oak Flats – Crash History Report, RMS Wollongong, (November 2012).
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