ALBION PARK RAIL BYPASS TRAFFIC STUDY FOR ROADS AND MARITIME SOUTHERN REGION Gold Coast Brisbane Sydney Suite 26, 58 Riverwalk Avenue Level 2, 428 Upper Edward Street Studio 203, 3 Gladstone Street Robina QLD 4226 Spring Hill QLD 4000 Newtown NSW 2042 P: (07) 5562 5377 P: (07) 3831 4442 P: (02) 9557 6202 W: www.bitziosconsulting.com.au E: [email protected] Project No: P1251 Version No: 002 Issue date: 30 October 2013 Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Issue History Report File Name Prepared by Reviewed by Issued by Date Issued to P1251.001R Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 30.09.13 P.Hawkins, RMS Wollongong P1251.002R Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study A.Bitzios D.Bitzios A.Bitzios 30.10.13 P.Hawkins, RMS Wollongong Bitzios Consulting makes no representation, undertakes no duty and accepts no responsibility to any third party who may use or rely upon this document or its information and data. Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page i Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the mid 1990’s Roads and Maritime Services undertook a route selection study to identify the most suitable long term route for the Princes Highway between Yallah and Oak Flats, known as the Albion Park Rail Bypass. In 1996 the preferred route was announced and adopted into the Shellharbour and Wollongong Council Local Environmental Plans (LEP corridor). The Roads and Maritime Services (Roads and Maritime) is seeking to review the corridor set aside for the Albion Park Rail Bypass and asses whether it is still a suitable long term route. The proposed bypass is likely to include a four lane divided highway (two lanes in each direction) with median separation between Yallah and Oak Flats. The bypass announced in the mid 1990s included new interchanges at Tongarra Road, Croome Road and modifications to the existing Oak Flats Interchange. The project is one of a series of upgrades to sections of the Princes Highway between waterfall and Nowra This would improve road safety and traffic efficiency, including for freight, on the NSW south coast. Bitzios Consulting have been requested by ROADS AND MARITIME to review strategic modelling completed by TDG (formerly Gabites Porter) and prepare a traffic modelling report for this project. Existing traffic and transport environment Between 1990 and 2013, the annual average daily traffic (AADT) on the Princes Highway north of the Illawarra Highway has increased by 1.9% per annum increasing from 44,635 vehicles per day (vpd) to 61,606vpd. The Princes Highway, Tongarra Road, Lake Entrance Road and Terry Street all exist on strategic bus corridors. These corridors contain higher frequency bus services providing connections for major regional centres. The South Coast Rail line runs immediately adjacent to the Princes Highway, with the rail station at Albion Park Rail directly accessed from the main road. The adjacent and surrounding land uses are ready for re-development, with approximately 30,000 lots available for release over the next 20 years. A summary of the issues relating to the existing traffic and transport environment are: . there is a large amount of development proposed in the immediate surrounding area; . interchange spacing is very short compared to other adjacent sections of the Princes Motorway, and this will need to be rectified at the transition between motorway to highway is replaced with the proposed bypass; . interchange ramp acceleration lanes and deceleration lanes within the study area are designed to minimum standards in length; . the Illawarra Highway frequently is overtopped by flood waters, resulting in substantial delays; . traffic congestion is beginning to affect the travel time reliability for key bus services in the precinct; Existing road network performance The crash record within the study section compared to adjacent sections of the Princes Highway and other major highways in NSW is extremely poor. Between April 2008 and March 2013, 367 crashes were reported within the study area. Of the 367 crashes, two were fatal crashes. There were 166 injury crashes that resulted in 220 injuries and 183 non-injury crashes. The results of the travel time analysis indicates that the Princes Highway between Yallah and Oak Flats currently has an average travel time of around 8 - 10 minutes. The Princes Highway within the study section currently operates with a midblock level of service (LOS) D to F during typical AM peak and PM peak periods. During periods of flood or school holidays the LOS Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page ii Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study deteriorates rapidly with the onset of congestion and substantial queues occurring well before the peak period begins. Future conditions without the project The Princes Highway is expected to operate at LOS E/F for most parts of the day in the future year should existing road infrastructure provision remain unchanged. Strategic modelling suggests that other roads such as Tongarra Road, East-West Link and Station Road will absorb a large portion of the overflowing traffic also reaching LOS E/F. The Illawarra Highway and Princes Highway roundabout lacks capacity and initiates lengthy delays in peak periods within the study section. Improvements to the Illawarra Highway and Princes Highway roundabout will necessitate improvements to other adjacent road sections due to the traffic congestion ‘bottleneck’ being relocated further downstream to other existing signalised intersections. If the current road network remains unchanged travel times through the study section will increase substantially from the current 8-10 minutes to 40-45 minutes in the northbound direction and 20-25 minutes in the southbound direction. The forecast growth in traffic on the existing road network within study section is likely to result in a considerable increase in the total number of crashes occurring which will have a financial and social impact on the local community. Future Year Traffic Modelling Strategic traffic modelling outputs show that the LOS is expected to improve from LOS E/F to LOS C/D along the Princes Highway with the proposed bypass. In additional, travel times for through traffic are expected to improve from 20-40minutes in the peak period down to 7-9 minutes, which is similar to current travel times experienced along the corridor. The proposed bypass offers a number of additional traffic network benefits including: . the ability to separate longer distance and local trips; . reduction in overall travel times for longer distance business and freight trips; . improvement in accessibility for local businesses; . improvement in travel time reliability for public transport, freight, businesses and commuters; . improvement to the amenity for the Albion Park Rail and Albion Park town centres; . improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during wet weather (flooding); . improved resilience to the traffic network capacity requirements during holiday periods increasing the attractiveness for tourists; and . most importantly, provides a longer term plan for the management of the large quantum of forthcoming development. The reduction of traffic volumes along the Princes Highway will result in an overall improvement of safety within the area. The crash rate currently experienced on the Princes Highway is substantially higher than what would be realised on a motorway standard road (such as the proposed bypass). The current crash rate on sections of the Princes Highway is 77 crashes per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. Based on the adjacent Princes Highway / Princes Motorway sections the proposed bypass is expected to attract only 12.5 crashes per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. This offers a 6 times level of safety improvement with the proposed bypass in place. The introduction of the bypass also enables a greater emphasis to be placed on providing safe solutions along the Princes Highway without needing to compromise through traffic capacity needs. The proposed bypass also provides an opportunity to include improved separation between local town centre and pedestrian / cycle based trips and the faster paced, longer distant, heavy vehicle and business based trips. Project No: P1251 Version: 002 Page iii Albion Park Rail Bypass Traffic Study The reduction of traffic along the Princes Highway, Tongarra Road and Station Road introduces opportunities to improve bus services between future development areas and key transport nodes. Greater flexibility can also be given in locating bus stops in the centre of towns with the view of improving the local town centre amenity without concerns of compromising the ‘traffic throughput’ capacity of the corridor. It should be noted that the Princes Highway, Tongarra Road, Lake Entrance Road and Terry Street all reside on a strategic bus corridor. The creation of the proposed bypass will enable the necessary bus priority infrastructure to support the strategic bus corridor. As congestion increases along the corridor, the level of travel time reliability will worsen, resulting in bus services becoming less attractive. The reduction of traffic along the Princes Highway, through the implementation of the proposed bypass, enables local authorities to consider amenity improvements to the Albion Park and Albion Park Rail town centres. These amenity improvements can focus more greatly on pedestrian and cycle access, building built form and improving the relationship between the adjacent land use, the road and the local residential communities. Improvements to access for local businesses may also be reconsidered, with access restrictions previously placed to maximise traffic throughput along the Princes Highway corridor possibly no longer considered as necessary with the proposed bypass in place. Value for Money The economic assessment for the scenarios tested for the proposed bypass project returns a BCR range of 2.24 to 2.76 and a NPV range of $755 million to $987 million (using discount rate of 7% in 2013 dollars). The project has a capital expenditure of approximately $600 million.