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Status Report Update: 2016 — Africa-EU Energy Partnership

Africa-EU Energy Partnership Status Report Update: 2016

A mid-term report on progress, achievements and future perspectives About the Africa-EU Energy Partnership The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) is one of the the African Union Commission, the Common Market for eight partnerships created following the December 2007 Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt, Lisbon summit, under the Joint Africa-EU Strategy the European Commission, Germany and Italy. The AEEP (JAES) – a long-term framework for co-operation that Secretariat is hosted by the EU Energy Initiative’s allows Africa and Europe to work together to develop a Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF). shared vision, common policy approaches and actions. This is central to achieving the AEEP’s overall objective – The AEEP’s data-monitoring and targets for renewables, of improving access to reliable, secure, affordable and energy access, efficiency and security are the subject of sustainable energy services on both continents. this report, which updates the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report (which may be downloaded at http://euei- The AEEP’s efforts focus on meeting a series of concrete, pdf.org/aeep-status-report ). The 2014 Status Report realistic and visible targets by 2020, as agreed at the described efforts to set benchmarks and monitor Partnership’s First High Level Meeting, held in Vienna in progress to meet the AEEP’s goals, and pointed to September 2010, and at subsequent meetings, of which directions for continued action. These included the Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held on 16-17 May discussion of whether the AEEP’s 2020 targets should be 2016 at the Politecnico di Milano in Italy, is the latest. revised – a discussion expanded in this Status Report: The AEEP receives political guidance from a Steering 2016 Update , ahead of the Second Stakeholder Forum in Group which is currently made up of representatives of Milan. AEEP 2020 Political Targets Declaration of the First High Level Meeting of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership Vienna, Austria, 14 September 2010

“We , African Ministers responsible for Energy, and ensuring adequate levels of generation capacity; European Union (EU) Ministers responsible for Africa-EU • doubling the use of natural gas in Africa, as well as energy relations resolve to work within the AEEP to attain doubling African gas exports to Europe , by building the following targets , in the timeframe up to 2020: natural gas infrastructure, notably to bring currently flared gas to market. Energy Access As a contribution to the African objective of achieving a Renewable Energy and Energy continent-wide rate of access to modern and sustainable energy of around 50%, Africa and the EU will take joint Efficiency action to: Africa and the EU will take joint action to increase both energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in • bring access to modern and sustainable energy services Africa by: to at least an additional 100 million Africans , focusing on sustainable models: to provide energy for basic • building 10,000MW of new hydropower facilities , taking services (health, education, water, communication); to into consideration social and environmental power productive activities; and to provide safe and standards; sustainable energy services to households. • building at least 5,000MW of wind power capacity ; Energy Security • building 500MW of all forms of solar energy capacity ; Africa and the EU will take joint action to improve energy • tripling the capacity of other renewables , such as security by: geothermal, and modern biomass; and

• doubling the capacity of cross-border electricity • improving energy efficiency in Africa in all sectors , interconnections , both within Africa and between Africa starting with the electricity sector, in support of Africa's and Europe, thus increasing trade in electricity while continental, regional and sectoral targets.”

Steering Group

4 | AEEP Contents

AEEP 2020 Political Targets 4 Renewable Energy Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015 28 Introduction and Key Findings 6 Encouraging partnership: the RECP 29 Progress in a changing environment 7 Installed renewable capacity by technology 29 Map: Africa’s energy infrastructure 9 Map: North African renewables projects 31 Baseline Data Hydroelectric generation, Installed capacity, 2000-15 32 Tracking developments in the African energy sector 10 Solar power grows strongly 34 Aligning with SE4All and other actors 11 Solar generation capacity 35 Wind power generation capacity, 2000-15 36 Information gaps and methodology 12 Tripling other renewables: geothermal and biomass 38 The Policy Environment Map: Sub-Saharan renewables projects 39 Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa 14 Energy Efficiency Coordinating Multiple African Energy Initiatives 14 Overview, EE Laws and Regulations 40 Energy Access Energy Intensity 41 Mixed results for key indicators 15 Network losses 43 Improving market economics ,Progress in electrification 16 African and European Contributions Map: Access to electricity and non-solid fuels 17 African national government budget allocations 45 Questions about clean cooking 18 Subnational spending 46 Access to electricity and non-solid cooking fuel, 2012 19 Emerging private sources 47 Offgrid issues 20 European contributions 48 Energy Security Targets to 2020 and beyond 49 Installed capacity by technology, 2010 and 2015 21 Map: Power pools, power lines and PIDA projects 22 Imprint 50 Doubling Cross-border Interconnections 23 Doubling The Use Of Natural Gas 25 Consumption of natural gas in Africa, 2000-14 25 Map: Natural gas infrastructure and trade routes 26 Africa gas exports to Europe, 2000-14 27 Exporting gas from Africa to Europe 27

Abbreviations Definitions

bcm billion cubic metres km kilometre Hydropower includes micro-hydro and pumped storage bn billion kV kilovolt projects unless otherwise stated.

C02e C02 equivalent kW kilowatt Biomass for electricity generation (rather than, cooking) covers the burning of organic matter . This category of CSP concentrated solar m million ‘Other Renewables’ includes waste-to-power projects. power MJ/$ million joules/dollar GJ gigajoule Solar is utilised as a semantic covering any form of MW megawatt electricity generation which uses the sun as its sole GW gigawatt (MW1,000) PV photovoltaic energy source unless further specified. h hour (as in GWh) tcf trillion cubic feet Thermal covers fossil fuels such as petroleum products HEP hydroelectric power and coal when used for electricity. t/yr tonnes a year

AEEP | 5 Introduction

Status Report: 2016 Update

The First AEEP Status Report was published to coincide remain elusive goals. As the 2014 Status Report observed, with the Second High Level Meeting of the Africa-EU the situation is not helped by the poor quality of much of Energy Partnership, held in Addis Ababa in February 2014. the existing data. While far from perfect, the Global It was the result of more than two years of work Tracking Framework (GTF) – established within the SE4All conducted by the AEEP Secretariat, its consultants and framework and driven by a Steering Group led jointly by stakeholders, to help the Partnership to meet its objective the World Bank Group’s Energy Sector Management of tracking progress against the AEEP 2020 Political Assistance Programme (ESMAP) and the International Targets and inform decision-making in Africa-EU energy Energy Agency (IEA) – has started to produce more cooperation. In this, it conformed with the mandate authoritative data sets, which are expected to improve established for the AEEP at the 2007 Africa-EU Summit further in the next few years. This data is used for access held in Lisbon: to establish benchmarks by which the and efficiency indicators in this report. Partnership’s Political Targets could be measured. This Status Report Update is to be launched at the AEEP’s The report’s origins were in a comprehensive baseline Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan, Italy on 16- study, Monitoring Progress under the AEEP , which was 17 May 2016. It is hoped that its data and analysis will launched at the AEEP’s First Stakeholder Forum in Cape help the AEEP’s diverse community of stakeholders – who Town, South Africa in May 2012. The 2014 Status Report include governments, public institutions, civil society, was notable for operationalising the AEEP Monitoring Tool academia and business – to take stock of progress to date – a Power Project Database containing more than 3,250 and develop policy for Africa and Europe to move ahead. individual generation projects, along with details of A critical issue to be informed by this report is whether, transmission lines, cross-border connections and export following nearly a decade of growth in the African energy markets, and other data. The 2014 Status Report was an industries, the AEEP’s political targets are still relevant in ambitious project; it is a reflection of the lack of data developing sustainable energy systems. The AEEP Power about many African energy sectors that there had been Project Database shows that solar power capacity little like it to date. Indeed, judging from feedback installed since the 2010 baseline already far exceeds the received by the AEEP, the project is still seen as AEEP 2020 Political Target of adding 500MW. authoritative in 2016, when the need to collect and collate more accurate data has risen up the global agenda, Discussions held in preparation for the Second Stakeholder following an upsurge in international attention paid to Forum in Milan suggest it may be appropriate to ask if the African energy issues from initiatives such as the United Political Targets’ timeframe should be extended. A number Nations-led Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), US of major initiatives – including SE4All, AREI and Power President Barack Obama’s Power Africa and the African Africa – have a shared target date: 2030. In September Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI). 2015, the United Nations unveiled 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are intended as a The Monitoring Tool’s principal aim was to track progress baseline for harmonising global action to tackle poverty. towards achieving the AEEP 2020 Political Targets. The SDG Goal 7 provides a commitment to “ensure access to report set the stage for ground-breaking monitoring of affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” by electricity generation capacity and cross-border electricity 2030. Goal 7 aims closely align with other AEEP targets, and gas interconnections on the continent. This was work with commitments to substantially increase renewables’ carried out directly by the AEEP and has been updated for share of the global energy mix and doubling the global this report, which benefits from a database with more rate of improvement in energy efficiency. than 3,000 generation projects. Research into the multiplicity of global initiatives Constraints on resources mean that external sources were conducted for the AEEP and published in a new report, used to benchmark other key targets – for energy access Mapping of Energy Initiatives and Programmes in Africa , and energy efficiency – following rigorous analysis of the concluded that given the large variety of multi-country, data by the AEEP Secretariat. This remains the case for this multi-stakeholder initiatives and aid programmes, a more Status Report Update . Analysis of published data suggest systematic exchange of information and increased co- that, in Africa, the goals of universal energy access and ordination are needed. Aligning the AEEP’s Political Targets accelerated rates of improvement in energy efficiency might be one contribution in this direction.

6 | AEEP Key Findings

Progress despite frustrations how cooperation can be further intensified and project implementation and coordination enhanced to help The world in which the Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) functions is changing, with many more actors improve the lives of many millions in Africa and Europe. becoming involved in the electricity sector. The AEEP has The report recognises that much remains to be done in contributed to pushing energy to the top of the Africa-EU compiling the data necessary to inform these decisions. In agenda and has helped to shape global initiatives such as a transitional period for data-gathering on African energy Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All). Its remit remains to sectors, AEEP stakeholders – many of them now also provide a framework in which policies and projects – the involved in complementary initiatives, such as SE4All and African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), among others – its Global Tracking Framework (GTF) – are committed to can be implemented with high levels of delivery and making up the information gap to obtain accurate data on stakeholder buy-in. It will push ahead on this agenda with African access, energy efficiency and other indicators. the AEEP’s Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan.

This Status Report Update builds on previous work to give Renewable generation is growing an overview of progress towards meeting the AEEP’s 2020 Renewable energy (RE) generation capacity has been Political Targets – using the AEEP Monitoring Tool and its increasing , as shown in the graphic below, which is based ground-breaking Africa Power Projects Database. The on analysis and estimates drawn from the AEEP Power report should also provide a platform for discussion of Project Database. The data for generation plants in

AEEP renewable generation targets Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015, 60 75% scenario: 55.30 and AEEP 2020 targets GW 50% scenario: 48.63 40 AEEP target: 43.01 Linear trend: 37.36 45 25% scenario: 41.97 20 43.01 Hydroelectric GW power 0 40 20102015 2020

8 75% scenario: 8.30 35 35.18 GW 50% scenario: 6.62 33.01 6 AEEP target: 6.12 Linear trend: 5.14 4 25% scenario: 4.93 30 2

0 25 20102015 2020

75% scenario: 2.98 3 GW AEEP target: 2.94 20 50% scenario: 2.49 2 Linear trend: 2.05 25% scenario: 2.00

15 1

0 20102015 2020 10

6 75% scenario: 5.96 6.12 Wind GW 5 50% scenario: 4.61 4 3.13 Other 1.12 2.94 25% scenario: 3.25 1.55 renewables Linear trend: 2.99 0.98 1.50 0.60 2 0 0.10 Solar 2010 2015 2020 AEEP target: 0.60 targets 0 2010 2015 2020 Source: AEEP project database

AEEP | 7 Key Findings

operation and planned for completion in the period to this represents an increase from an average of 14.4m 2020 suggest that in some sectors – such as the people gaining access to electricity each year between installation of solar capacity – developments have largely 2000 and 2010, to 28.9m in 2010-12. If this annual surpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, which were increase can be sustained, Africa is likely to achieve the agreed in 2007, when the global renewables industry was AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020. Meanwhile, only at a very different stage of development. 32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cooking fuel in 2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely up from Hydroelectric power 31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990. Hydroelectric power (HEP) remains the dominant RE technology supplying African grids. Between 2010 and Energy efficiency 2015, 2,174MW of HEP capacity was added. Further, Energy intensity – calculated as units of energy per unit of rehabilitation work has been undertaken at a large GDP – is a measurable (if imperfect) indicator of energy number of dilapidated facilities, improving performance efficiency. World Bank/SE4All data suggests that Africa and reliability. While large HEP projects dominate the AEEP experienced a decrease in average final energy intensity of Power Project Database, smaller projects can have a very 20% (or an average 2.9% per year) in 2000-12. Network big impact in providing energy for isolated communities. losses remain a problem across Africa, but are exhibiting a stable trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and Solar capacity exceeds projections 2012 (from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change in 2010-12. Solar capacity started at a very low level , but has enjoyed exponential success. The AEEP’s Political Target of adding Energy security reinforces connections 500MW more generation capacity by 2020 was met only The slow pace of Programme for Infrastructure four years after the 2010 baseline was set – and is Development in Africa (PIDA) projects and other cross- expected to have been met four times over by the end of border schemes have slowed increases to electricity 2016. Installed capacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW, transfer capacity; the database shows no new operating compared with 103MW in 2010. lines completed since 2011. But recent progress on regional transmission projects suggests that, with Wind power improved project delivery, the AEEP target of doubling Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been added, capacity by 2020 could be met. Among other energy more than doubling the 2010 capacity of 1,120MW. security targets, gas consumption in Africa plateaued in Analysis of the project pipeline suggests the AEEP Political 2012-14, due to political and economic challenges that Target of adding 5,000MW by 2020 can be met, if 43% of have also had an impact on gas exports to Europe, which the planned projects are completed on time. fell to 46bcm in 2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006. Other renewable technologies Financial support continues to grow The AEEP database shows that some 1,410MW must still Increasing levels of financial support are shown in data for be added to triple the amount of generation from biomass African and European contributions – which, although still and geothermal resources from their 2010 levels. Because incomplete, point to positive trends. These include an timelines for some Kenyan geothermal projects have increase in allocations to energy in African government’s slipped, 73% would have to be completed on time for the annual capital spending budgets, for which initiatives such AEEP target to be reached. While biomass in 2015 had as PIDA are adding to, and volumes of multilateral loans. more capacity – 950MW compared with 554MW for geothermal – geothermal capacity is anticipated to AEEP should consider revising targets overtake biomass in 2017-18. Efforts to harmonise the growing number of African energy-focused initiatives – the subject of a separate AEEP Indicators for access study to be presented in Milan – together with increased Indicators for access to electricity and clean, sustainable focus on private sector investments and the contribution cooking fuels remain inexact, and GTF statistics published of global initiatives like GTF towards better understanding to date are a work in progress, but they show an overall energy access and efficiency, suggest the AEEP should improvement in electricity access: in 2012, 516m Africans consider revisions to its 2020 Political Targets, both in had access to electricity – leaving 570m without. The terms of what is expected and the appropriate timeframe. average compound annual growth rate rose from 3.9% in 2030 is the chosen date for SE4All and AREI, the 2000-10 to 6.1% in 2010-12. In terms of new connections, Sustainable Development Goals and other benchmarks.

8 | AEEP Key Findings

Africa’s energy infrastructure National boundary

Major gas fields and recent Bizerte To Italy significant discoveries To Spain ALGIERS Skikda TUNIS (Lower Egypt) Tangier Oran Constantine TUNISIA 69 Arzew To Italy 6 7 12 29 30 31 43 46 49 53 58 60 Gas pipeline Oujda La Skhira Sidi Bel GULF OF RABAT Abbès Fès Gabès GABÈS ZOHR Major power generation Casablanca TRIPOLI NILE 65 HASSI 32 DELTA projects: MOROCCO R’MEL BERKINE Misratah Benghazi Tobruk To Israel 70 Marrakech BASIN Idku Damietta Commissioned 62 8 Port Said Béchar Marsa Alexandria To Jordan Pipeline Agadir Ghadames Al-Brega Suez Ras WESTERN Lanuf CAIRO Ain Moussa ALGERIA GHADAMES DESERT 26 Taba BASIN Tarfaya SIRTE Adrar ILLIZI Sarir Minya Zeit Bay BASIN Sabha BASIN Hydroelectric (including SAHARA In Salah Asyut Hurghada El-Ayoun FIELDS pumped storage: PS) Boujdour LIBYA EGYPT El-Hamrawein Western Sahara 13 Luxor 23 27 39 Sahara Thermal (oil, gas, coal) (under UN Al-Kufra 34 mandate) Tamanrasset Abu L. Bordj Simbel Nasser Halaib Mokhtar e il Other (solar, wind, Nouadhibou N Atar Port geothermal, nuclear) MAURITANIA Sudan CAPE NOUAKCHOTT Arlit VERDE BANDA MALI Power line NIGER Atbara GREATER Timbuktu N Gao Agadez SUDAN TORTUE Néma ig ERITREA St-Louis e 41 Kassala PRAIA r CHAD Massawa DAKAR KHARTOUM Wad ASMARA Kayes NIAMEY Medani SENEGAL Ségou Maradi Zinder Abéché BANJUL BURKINA El-Fasher Gedaref Mekele Sokoto L.Chad B Assab THE GAMBIA FASO l El-Obeid u L.Tana BAMAKO Kano Maiduguri N’DJAMENA e DJIBOUTI BISSAU Bobo OUAGADOUGOU Renk N Dioulasso il Dese DJIBOUTI GUINEA-BISSAU Maroua e GUINEA NIGERIA C le 4 VILLE Bosaso BENIN h i Dire Kankan Kaduna a N Ferkessédougou r e 45 35 Dawa Berbera Tamale i it 57 CONAKRY h TOGO ABUJA e Sarh Hargeisa FREETOWN nu W ADDIS ABABA Harer Garowe CÔTE GHANA Be Ibadan Ngaoundéré SIERRA LEONE D’IVOIREL . V o l t a Ajaokuta Wau SOUTH 54 48 T 22 ETHIOPIA MONROVIA Kumasi e 67 CENTRAL A m Lagos Enugu 42 CALUB, I P 21 SUDAN YAMOUSSOUKRO a O AFRICAN REPUBLIC mo HILALA L Africa’s largest LIBERIA A Ab. L N R 25 CAMEROON O A b A O O T Port Harcourt BANGUI id C M V O JUBA Negele M San-Pedro ja O - Douala power projects n C É FOXTROT, R 47 UŽlŽ O D A YAOUNDÉ 5 S PANTHÈRE N E NIGER DELTA L.Turkana (final capacity in gigawatts) E A MALABO Gulu LA IL F Buta E B ngo O Kribi Co J , U K EQUAT.GUINEA u Projects in bold are included in U J O L.Albert UGANDA 40 MOGADISHU D , N b N A G a U E S S.TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE ) Bunia PIDA’s 2020 Priority Action Plan K T N E Kisangani KAMPALA LIBREVILLE L KENYA O L T I Mbandaka a SÃO TOMÉ Kisumu n 1 Grand Inga 39.0 C V L.Edward a Port-Gentil GABON F A Mbarara Kismayo • Z 2 Thyspunt or Duynefontein O Z DEMOCRATIC RWANDA . A Lake NAIROBI • P R L.Kivu KIGALI Victoria nuclear 9.6 LEOPARD E B REPUBLIC OF ( R Bandundu Bukavu Mwanza 3 REIPPP Rounds 1-4 6.3 M’BOUNDI BRAZZAVILLE CONGO BUJUMBURA SEYCHELLES 4 • Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Pointe-Noire KINSHASA BURUNDI Arusha Mombasa L Kigoma LITCHENDJILI u Lake Pemba I. VICTORIA • 1 9 63 a Tanga Dam (GERD) 6.0 OFFSHORE CABINDA Kananga l Tanganyika Matadi a Zanzibar I. b Kalemie 5 Upper White Nile 5.0 LOWER CONGO BASIN Soyo K a DODOMA a Mbuji- Dar es Salaam s TANZANIA • a Mayi

6 Beni Suef 4.8 39 El-Hamrawein 2.0 • • • LUANDA Iringa 38 CHEWA, PWEZA 7 Burullus 4.8 40 EmuruangogolakÐ L.Mweru SONGO SONGO • • 37 56 Mbeya 8 El-Daba nuclear 4.8 Barrier geothermal 2.0 Mtwara • LONTRA OFFSHORE RUVUMA/ 9 Inga III 4.8 41 Solar Euromed 2.0 Sumbe ANGOLA Kolwezi 64 Songea ROVUMA BASIN • • Kuito Lubumbashi COMOROS 10 Kusile 4.8 42 Gilgel Gibe IV 2.0 Lake Malawi Antsiranana • • Benguela Luena MALAWI (Lake Nyasa) MORONI 11 Medupi 4.8 43 Helwan South 2.0 Huambo Ndola LILONGWE Lichinga Pemba Mayotte • • e Menongue 12 New Capital 4.8 44 Hendrina 2.0 n ZAMBIA (Fr.) Namibe e Nacala

• • n C

FiT Rd.1 wind & solar u LUSAKA Blantyre 13 4.3 45 Mandaya 2.0 u

b Mongu Mahajanga C 36 a • • n Zamb 52 14 Kendal 4.1 46 Safaga 2.0 ez E g i 61 • • o Livingstone U 15 Majuba 4.1 47 Grand Eweng 1.0–2.0 28 HARARE Q 55 I • • Rundu Quelimane Toamasina 16 Matimba 4.0 48 Gilgel Gibe III 1.9 Hwange B ZIMBABWE ANTANANARIVO • • Tsumeb M Maun 17 Lethabo 3.7 49 Damanhur CC 1.8 Gweru Beira MAURITIUS • • A PANDE MADAGASCAR 18 Tutuka 3.7 50 Koeberg nuclear 1.8 Francistown Z PORT LOUIS Bulawayo TEMANE 19 • Duvha 3.6 51 • Mmamantswe 1.8 NAMIBIA Ghanzi O Limpopo Réunion Selebi-Phikwe M • • Walvis 20 Matla 3.6 52 Ncondezi 1.8 BOTSWANA (Fr.) • • Bay WINDHOEK 11PRETORIA Toliara 21 Lekki 3.7 53 Cairo West 1.7 51 16 Inhambane 22 • Mambilla 3.1 54 • Tams 1.7 GABORONE • • Tolanaro¨ 23 El-Hamrawein 3.0 55 Batoka Gorge 1.6 Johannesburg MAPUTO Keetmanshoop • • Secunda MBABANE 24 Kriel 3.0 56 Caculo Cabaça 1.6 Lüderitz Sasolburg (Mpumalanga) • • l SWAZILAND 25 Ogorode 2.8 57 Karadobi 1.6 a 10 14 15 17 18 19 20 24 33 44 59 Ora a 26 • Ain Moussa I & II 2.6 58 • Cairo North 1.5 KUDU nge V Kimberley 68 Richards Bay • • Alexander Pietermaritzburg 27 El-Hamrawein 2.4 59 Camden 1.5 Bay Bloemfontein M Durban 28 • Sengwa (Gokwe N.) 2.4 60 • Giza North II & III 1.5 IBHUBESI SOUTH ASERU • • LESOTHO 29 • Beni Suef IPP 2.3 61 • Mphanda Nkuwa 1.5 AFRICA 30 Dairut 2.3 62 Al-Khalij 2 1.4 3 • • 66 East London 31 Nubaria I-III 2.3 63 Inga II 1.4 50 Mossel 32 • TuNur solar 2.3 64 • Luapula River 1.4 Cape Town Bay Port Elizabeth • • BREDASDORP 33 Arnot 2.1 65 Jorf Lasfar 1.4 2 34 • Aswan High 2.1 66 • Ankerlig 1.3 Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics 35 • Beko Abo 2.1 67 • Egbin 1.3 Fit: Feed-in Tariff • • REIPPP: Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement 36 • Cahora Bassa 2.1 68 • Ingula PS 1.3 37 • Lauça 2.1 69 • Nador 1.3 Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; 38 • Stiegler’s Gorge 2.1 70 • Safi 1.3 Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa

AEEP | 9 Baseline data

Tracking developments in the African energy sector

The First AEEP Status Report introduced the AEEP has active work streams which are heavily focused on Monitoring Tool – the African Power Project Database other facets of these issues. For this reason – and containing more than 3,259 individual generation projects, reflecting the strong support offered by African and along with details of transmission lines, cross-border European governments to SE4All and the GTF process – connections and export markets, and other data. The this report depends on GTF data. principal aim of the database was to track progress There has been recognition of the need to provide towards achieving the AEEP 2020 Political Targets. The comprehensive coverage of the continent at the same time report set the stage for ground-breaking monitoring of as improving the depth of coverage. However, electricity generation capacity and cross-border electricity shortcomings remain. Improved data on energy access and gas interconnections on the continent. The Database along the tiered system model is only available for a has been updated for this Status Report Update . minority of countries. Datasets for the continent as a The approach allows continent-wide statistics to be traced whole remain, in large part, a modelling exercise back to their origin in the power plants that generate the dependent on old data points. Furthermore, even with the electricity. This makes the statistics more transparent – in acceleration of work by SE4All/GTF, the latest available a sector that is often reputed for its opacity – while data is for 2012. Using existing data alone makes facilitating the analysis of developments in a way not understanding the effects of energy access and efficiency possible in other systems. programmes initiated early in the decade impossible to In this way, the AEEP Monitoring Tool allows policy-makers determine. to understand how progress towards the Political Targets Since its creation in 2007, the AEEP has taken a lead in agreed at its First High Level Meeting in Vienna, Austria in statistical analysis and benchmarking key sectors of September 2010 – which were confirmed in February 2014 African energy. This pioneering approach has been at the AEEP’s Second High Level Meeting – are being reflected in subsequent initiatives such as SE4All and achieved. It is intended to help the AEEP’s varied many more. It is given substance by the AEEP Monitoring community of stakeholders to better understand trends, Tool, which is able to provide reliable and up-to-date and identify opportunities and problems. electricity generation and interconnection statistics up There has been a greater focus on improving the quality of until 2015 and beyond. monitoring of the African energy sector since the original Gaining an understanding of the weaknesses apparent in AEEP Baseline Monitoring Report in 2012. At the forefront datasets that might support more accurate benchmarking of these efforts has been the Sustainable Energy for All of AEEP and other monitoring of African energy indicators (SE4All) initiative, now established as a permanent has been a substantial element in the Partnership’s work. secretariat in Vienna and sponsor of Global Tracking Helping to strengthen methodological approaches and Framework (GTF), whose Steering Group is led jointly by data-gathering will continue to be an important area of the WBG’s Energy Sector Management Assistance work as the AEEP strives to meet its goals. Programme (Esmap) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Tracking from the ground up The latest SE4All Global Tracking Framework Report , The data underpinning the Monitoring Tool comes from published in 2015, showed significant progress towards three key sources: the AEEP Power Project Database, the better quality of data relating to energy access in GTF and BP. The database contains information on particular. While the AEEP has been able to mobilise operating and planned power plants and electricity resources to monitor generation, it has not been interconnections in Africa, allowing the installed capacity positioned to carry out similar levels of data collection on of renewable and other energy technologies to be tracked issues of access and efficiency – although the Partnership accurately through time.

10 | AEEP Baseline Data

The dataset – while a work in progress – is continually Aligning with SE4All updated, allowing real-time analysis of events and trends Given the realities of developing comprehensive efficiency in the sector. and access statistics and the global efforts already under The AEEP Power Project Database, which also provides the way, the AEEP has opted for a strategy of aligning its basis of the interconnection and renewable energy power monitoring with SE4All, which is establishing benchmarks generation statistics in this report, attempts to remove the for access data. opacity and improve on the reliability of existing datasets. Supported by a wide range of major public and private It records detail including each of the recorded project’s stakeholders, SE4All published its Global Tracking name, location, size and fuel type for over 3,250 actual and Framework in May 2013. The report marked a break with planned generation plants across the continent. previous African energy statistics, endeavouring to provide The approach of individually researching, verifying and data for every country on the continent, as well as putting recording power projects in 50 countries cannot claim to in place financial and technical support to produce better be comprehensive or guarantee the accuracy of all of the quality statistics in countries that signed up to the SE4All data. The approach is limited in its ability to record certain programme. The second GTF report in 2015 built on this types of data, which may be increasingly important as model, and showed the process was starting to make more off-grid solutions are implemented to overcome progress in some areas. generation shortfalls; one example would be statistics on The SE4All database contains estimates of access to solar water heaters and household energy solutions (such electricity and non-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensity as solar home systems and diesel generators). and electricity transmission and distribution losses for all The AEEP’s current approach may also lack the authority of but a handful of African countries. Using modelling aggregations based on data received from efficient, well- techniques, the GTF takes data from surveys carried out to resourced national statistical offices. However, despite international standards to produce estimates of data shortcomings, the AEEP is confident that this work is an points for years and countries where no data currently improvement on comparable datasets – and provides a exists. The underlying data set is aggregated from the platform for further African-European cooperation to WBG’s Global Electrification Database,the IEA and the develop monitoring. World Health Organisation’s Household Energy Database.

AEEP | 11 Baseline Data

Tracking energy security indicators have only limited responsiveness to policy reforms and new initiatives. In energy efficiency, SE4All data on Within the AEEP’s energy security remit, information on network losses is implausibly volatile. In the case of the pipeline and LNG natural gas exports from Africa to Europe statistics for Botswana, the dataset estimates a low of and the consumption of natural gas is contained in the 11.1% in 2001 but a high of 158% in 2012. Similarly, for annual Statistical Review of World Energy , published by BP Togo the figures fluctuate between 40.1% and 129%. plc. This report is well respected internationally and has Clearly there are serious questions to be asked about the been published since 1951, providing an unrivalled dataset. dataset. Constrained resources at national statistical offices, These data sources together form the AEEP Monitoring coupled with very widely dispersed populations, Tool, which tracks progress towards the AEEP 2020 communications and transport infrastructure restrictions, political targets. limited state presence in some locations, large informal economies and the ubiquitous use of diesel generators, Overcoming information gaps … the poor condition of much existing infrastructure, all In many areas, progress will understandably take time, contribute to a high degree of uncertainty and given the need to develop the capacity and independence complication in data production and analysis. of national statistical offices and to undertake large-scale, very detailed surveys. In many countries, household …needs a lot of resources surveys to gain a much deeper picture of energy use are Reporting by national utilities and governments has often only just beginning. Data gaps thus remain. left much to be desired when it comes to providing up-to- The absence of up-to-date energy access statistics means date, comprehensive and publicly available statistics. But that analysts are reliant on estimates for data, which can there has been some improvement as energy regulators

AEEP 2020 Political Target Baseline 2010 Numeric AEEP 2020 2020 Target Will the target be met or missed by 2020?

Energy Security

Double capacity of cross-border interconnections 9,230MW 18,460MW Missed on current trend

Double the use of natural gas in Africa 108bcm 216bcm Missed on current trend

Double African gas exports to Europe 79bcm 158bcm Current trend is negative

Renewable Energy Missed on trend since 2010. Achieved on 10,000MW Hydro 33,010MW 43,010MW optimistic and balanced pipeline scenario Missed on trend since 2010. Achieved on 5,000MW Wind 1,120MW 6,120MW optimistic and balanced pipeline scenario

500MW Solar 103MW 603MW Already achieved

Missed on trend since 2010 Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) 981MW 2,943MW Achieved in optimistic pipeline scenario only Energy Efficiency

Network losses (%) 12.7 na No target defined

Energy intensity (MJ/US$2011 PPP) 6.7 na No target defined

Energy Access Comfortably achieved if trend since 2010 is Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 458m 558m maintained

Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 336m 436m Missed by 10m on trend since 2010

12 | AEEP Baseline Data

and new management practices have had time to embed somewhat more open reporting cultures.

The situation is especially acute when it comes to assessing levels of access to modern, sustainable energy. For example, in some cases an electricity connection to one or a cluster of houses may be registered as a whole settlement or even town having access, which would clearly skew the data. This report – like other work in the sector – remains subject to these .

Given limited options, this report uses the best of the data available to produce estimates of trends and quantities, in the case of several key indicators following unique research work carried out for the AEEP.

The data set out in the following pages is of sufficient quality to illustrate trends and provide an indication of current values and rates. It does not claim to be either definitive or infallible, but it aspires to making a contribution towards better understanding the trends by which African populations can be supplied with the clean, sustainable energy, to which it is everyone’s right to have access.

Historical trends for 2020 target Scenarios (based on annual average increases) (based % on current project pipeline)

Long-term Medium-term Short-term Pessimistic Halfway Optimistic (2000-15) (2007-15) (2010-15) (25% online) (50% online) (75% online)

Energy Security

Double capacity of cross-border interconnections 11,842MW 11,619MW 11,076MW na na na

Double the use of natural gas in Africa (bcm)* 164 146 143 na na na

Double African gas exports to Europe (bcm)* 42 30 21 na na na

Renewable Energy

10,000MW Hydro 37,378MW 38,319MW 37,358MW 41,969MW 48,633MW 55.297MW

5,000MW Wind 4,118MW 4,669MW 5,144MW 4,934MW 6,616MW 8,299MW

500MW Solar n/a n/a 2,989MW 3,254MW 4,606MW 5,958MW

Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) n/a n/a 2,054MW 1,995MW 2,487MW 2,978MW

Energy Efficiency

Network losses % 2000-2012 – 12.6, 2010-2012 – 12.3 na na na

Energy intensity (MJ/US$2005 PPP ) 2000-2012 – 5.2, 2010-2012 – 4.8 na na na

Energy Access

Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 649m, 2010-2012 – 743m na na na

Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 420m, 2010-2012 – 426m na na na

* Trend figures are to 2014

AEEP | 13 BPaoslieclyin Een vMioronnitmoerinntg

PIDA will progress with strong support

The Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa forecasts of growing trade through to 2020. The (PIDA) and its Priority Action Programme (PAP) are central programme’s primary objective is to reduce energy costs to efforts to upgrade energy and other services across the and increase access. continent by developing major projects at a regional level. PIDA gives project development a strongly regional focus. PIDA has an impressive roster of schemes, which are This point was emphasised by NEPAD executive secretary shown in the map on page 20. It is supported by the Ibrahim Assane Mayaki at the First PIDA Week, organised African Union Commission (AUC), African Development by (NEPAD) in November 2015. “We must recognise that Bank (AfDB) and the New Partnership for Africa’s policy-making is increasingly moving from a national to a Development (NEPAD), whose NEPAD Planning and regional level,” Mayaki said. Coordinating Agency is PIDA’s implementing agency. The scale and complexity of PIDA’s ‘transformational’ The European Union has promoted support for PIDA as an projects – led by the biggest project of all, to develop the important element in its cooperation policy, and with new potential 50GW Inga Falls hydropower resource in urgency since the April 2014 Africa-EU Summit in Brussels. Democratic Republic of Congo for the benefit of all Africa – This is reflected in financial and technical support for means progress has been slow in many cases. No PIDA projects, and coordinated through bodies like the Africa-EU project has come online in the period covered by this Reference Group on Infrastructure. European institutions update report. All four energy projects included in the are participating in initiatives such as the PIDA Project recent PIDA Financial Structuring Plan have been discussed Technical Assistance Facility, which is supporting early for years: the Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya power transmission stage project preparation for these complex schemes. line, the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, Batoka Gorge and PIDA has identified a group of energy sector projects Inga III hydropower. But progress on projects like Ruzizi III which could have the greatest transformative potential in and the CLSG transmission line (see Energy Security) the period to 2040: the PAP. A subset of priority suggests several more PIDA schemes will help to light up programmes will expand existing capacity to meet Africa in the period through to 2020.

Coordinating multiple African Energy initiatives

As energy has risen ever higher up the global agenda, generation, 57% mini-grids and 50% stand-alone off-grid. there has been a proliferation of institutions, programmes The AEEP mapping exercise found Central Africa received and initiatives entering the African arena. Collaboration less attention than other regions, and relatively few between organisations is now common, but even more focused on African sub-regions. A high level of private often actors operate in isolation, duplicating effort and sector participation was identified, but limited interaction confusing issues. Harnessing momentum behind a focused with civil society. It sees scope for stronger engagement set of global strategies and priorities seems essential to with African non-governmental organisations. maximise impact and avoid contradictory goals;this requires a clear picture of the range of institutions, funds, As this Status Report Update also concludes, Mapping of programmes and initiatives jostling for space in the sector. Energy Initiatives identifies significant potential for increased support for clean cooking, and noted that while The AEEP has been involved in compiling the report off-grid and mini-grid projects are receiving more Mapping of Energy Initiatives and Programmes in Africa , attention, this interest comes from a low base. Further since May 2015. The report surveyed 58 initiatives and analysis is needed to develop tailored offerings, which programmes. Information on 51 of these was either include support for entrepreneurs and start-ups. The validated or supplied by the institutions behind them. report concluded that skill development tended to be Renewable energy was seen as a priority, with 98% of under-represented in technical assistance programmes. initiatives covering it. Some 52% covered energy efficiency, Knowledge transfer is a priority for many African 41% non-renewable generation and 36% heating and governments and an essential component of building cooling, while only 34% were involved in clean cooking. capacity at institutions and utilities; more skill Some 74% of electricity sector initiatives included grid development programmes might work.

14 | AEEP Energy Access

access remains an elusive goal. While many countries have 1,500 Millions made a concerted effort to improve levels of rural 1,324 1,250 electrification and other forms of access, the impacts of Africa’s 1,086 insufficient resources and growing populations are still 1,000 population reflected in disappointing access indicators. 806 750 743 Further, while statistics – and basic observation – show that much of SSA is confronted with major shortfalls of Access to 516 AEEP 2020 target: 558 500 electricity AEEP 2020 target: 436 access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, there is much 354 314 426 to do before sufficiently accurate data is available to help 250 257 Access to non-solid improve the situation. Within the SE4All framework, the cooking fuels projections 0 Global Tracking Framework (GTF) has been established to 2000 10 1220 counter this shortfall, with a Steering Group led jointly by the WBG’s Energy Sector Management Assistance African governments and the European Union recognise Programme (ESMAP) and the International Energy Agency that access to sustainable energy is the basis of every (IEA). modern economy, without which it is impossible to raise living standards or drive inclusive economic growth. As much remains to be done to compile accurate statistics well as increasing productivity and the possibilities for until the GTF datasets are ready to provide a definitive entrepreneurship, access to electricity creates safer, well-lit picture of access in SSA . With some reason, critics argue streets, saves time in the home and allows food to be that the statistics as currently available may even serve to stored for longer. Electricity provides the foundation for obscure the challenges, rather than enlighten strategies to modern healthcare, the media and digital world. In Africa, overcome them. Indeed, as the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report as in so many emerging economies, access to clean observed, debate continues over the definition of access. cooking fuels is integral to improving living standards. Reliance on solid fuel for cooking, such as charcoal, has These issues are discussed by the AEEP’s Energy Access well-documented adverse effects on health, together with Work Stream. NGO Practical Action (whose Senior Policy often unsustainable and damaging production methods. Advisor Lucy Stevens is AEEP Focal Point for Civil Society in Europe), has argued that new ways of defining and Securing access to secure, affordable, clean and measuring energy access are crucial if the SDG target is to sustainable energy services is one of three main areas for result in poverty reduction and development benefits. To action under the Agenda for Change driving the EU’s achieve this means going beyond the conventional binary energy development policy. The African Union and EU see that providing support for the United Nations’ Sustainable definitions of energy access such as household electricity Energy for All (SE4All) initiative – which aims to pull 1bn connections and cooking with non-solid or solid fuels. out of energy poverty by 2030, some 500m of them in Sub- The GTF is adopting an innovative, ‘multi-tier’ approach to Saharan Africa (SSA) – is an important means of defining access, able to measure progress in achieving coordinating activity in this critical area. good-quality, affordable, safe and reliable energy services. African governments, the EU and other international While the statistics presented below may sometimes only actors are firmly focused on achieving a radical overhaul of represent a ‘best guess’ as to the current situation , it this situation. Goal 7 of the Sustainable Development makes sense to work with the GTF data accumulated so far Goals (SDGs), unveiled by the UN in September 2015 as a during the interim period covered by this Status Report baseline for harmonising global action to overcome Updat e. Given the paucity of other available data – and poverty, provides a commitment to “ensure access to the GTF’s potential for providing a more rigorous baseline affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” – in the period to 2030 – the SE4All data set seems the most underpinning SE4All’s promise of universal access by 2030. appropriate for use in this report , in the understanding However, data compiled for SE4All and research by the that this source will produce a more refined appreciation AEEP and other agencies suggest that universal energy of SSA’s multiple problems of access in coming years.

AEEP | 15 EBnaesergliyn eA cMcoenssitoring

Improving market economics to create more consumers

Providing access to modern and a lack of incentives to invest. In frameworks to stimulate investment, sustainable energy services requires recognition of this stark reality, policy- including EUEI PDF and the Technical building new markets and overhauling makers have made the introduction of Assistance Facility (TAF). old ones. At its most basic, the electricity cost-reflective tariffs (CRTs) a focus for Real progress has been made, despite sector has only two main sources of reforms. revenue: income from consumers and political pressures, but there is more to subsidies, which are usually provided by Across the continent there have been do. Southern African Development the state. For decades, a majority of concerted efforts to move tariffs towards Community (SADC) member countries in African governments have held tariffs the system cost of providing electricity 2004 committed to achieving CRTs by well below costs, seeing this as the only by establishing economic and quasi- 2013, but are not yet there. Electricity way to keep the cost of electricity economic regulators that have a degree supply markets have yet to show they affordable for very poor consumers. Such of independence from governments. The can achieve the commercial take-off that calculations are often driven by political EU has created several instruments, to mobile telecommunications have expediency, rather than by economic assist in fine-tuning partner countries’ achieved with such great impact across logic – resulting in under-investment and energy policies and regulatory the continent.

Progress in electrification since 2010

Data on access to modern and sustainable energy remain sustainable energy has been increasing, and improved weak on a number of levels. In the interim, statistics governance and management of the electricity sector has produced by the Global Tracking Framework are facilitated project development. The data show that, in predominantly estimates based on a limited set of data 2012 (the most recent year for which data is available), points, and the impact of changes in policy and the 516m Africans had access to electricity – leaving 570m implementation of large projects will not show up on a without. statistical model until new data points are gathered – the The average compound annual growth rate for electricity aim of intense national-level work that is now under way. access has risen from 3.9% in the 2000-10 period to 6.1% Efforts to improve the capacity of national statistical between 2010 and 2012. In terms of new connections, this authorities are supported by the AEEP and other represents an increase from an average of 14.4m people stakeholders. Without these authorities, reliably tracking gaining access to electricity each year between 2000 and the situation on the ground will not be possible. 2010, to an average of 28.9m per year in 2010-12. The SE4All statistics published to date show an If this annual increase can be sustained , then Africa is improvement in electricity access. This as investment in likely to achieve the AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020.

Access to Access to Access to electricity electricity non-solid (urban) (rural) cooking fuels (urban)

Percent of population with access to electricity/ non-solid cooking fuels, 2012 70.0 – 100% 50.0 – 69.9% 30.0 – 49.9% 15.0 – 29.9% Less than 15%

16 | AEEP Energy Access

Access to electricity and non-solid fuels

% Percent of population with access to electricity, 2012 70.0 – 100% 50.0 – 69.9% 30.0 – 49.9% TUNISIA 100% 100% 15.0 – 29.9% Less than 15% MOROCCO 100% 97.1% % Percent of population with access ALGERIA to non-solid cooking fuels, 2012 100% 100% LIBYA Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework 100% 100% EGYPT 100% 100% Western North Africa Sahara (under UN L. mandate) Nasser CAPE le VERDE i N 70.6% MAURITANIA 68.7% 21.8% 42.0% MALI NIGER 25.6% 2.0% SUDAN ERITREA SENEGAL 14.4% 3.2% 32.6% 27.9% CHAD 36.1% 36.1% 56.5% 39.3% West AfricaN 6.4% 4.8% ig W e THE GAMBIA r h

i

L.Chad t 34.5% 5.0% BURKINA FASO e DJIBOUTI N B

i l 53.3% 84.3%

l u L.Tana 13.1% 5.3% e e GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA N V B i o l C l a NIGERIA h e 60.6% 2.0% l 26.2% 2.2% c BENIN t a a k 38.4% 55.6% 24.8% ri CÔTE GHANA ETHIOPIA SIERRA LEONE 6.2% e SOUTH D’IVOIRE nu 26.6% 2.2% 64.1% Be CENTRAL SUDAN 14.2% 2.0% 55.8% o 16.8% AFRICAN REPUBLIC m LIBERIA 19.1% TOGO 5.1% 2.1% O East CAMEROON 10.8% 3.2% SOMALIA 9.8% 2.0% 31.5% 53.7% 21.9% 4.8% Africa 32.7% 4.6% ga ŽlŽ na U EQUATORIAL GUINEA Sa L.Turkana UGANDA 66.0% 55.1% Central J u L.Albert 18.2% b KENYA a SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Africa 2.6% 23.0% 16.2% 60.5% 28.8% GABON L.Edward T SEYCHELLES o a g n n a 100% 89.3% 78.7% o DEMOCRATIC RWANDAL.Victoria C REPUBLIC OF CONGO REPUBLIC OF L.Kivu 18.0% 2.0% 99.8% (BRAZZAVILLE) CONGO BURUNDI 41.6% 24.8% 16.4% 5.0% 6.5% 2.0% Cabinda L.Tanganyika Pemba I. a

(Ang.) b TANZANIA Zanzibar I. K a l

a a

s u 15.3% 4.2% a L

• Mafia I. Gt.Ruaha Cu L.Mweru anza COMOROS 69.3% 25.5% ANGOLA MALAWI 37.0% 44.3% 9.8% L.Malawi (L.Nyasa) 3.1% ZAMBIA Mayotte e (Fr.) n

e 22.1% 17.3%

n C u u

b Access to C a i n Kafue ez g b MAURITIUS o m non-solid a Z MOZAMBIQUE 100% cooking 20.2% 3.8% 99.3% ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR fuels 40.5% 29.6% (rural) NAMIBIA 15.4% 2.0% 47.3% 45.0% BOTSWANA Limpopo Réunion 53.2% 62.5% (Fr.) Southern Africa SWAZILAND

al 42.0% 38.4% Or a ange V SOUTH LESOTHO AFRICA 20.6% 38.0% 85.4% 86.7%

AEEP | 17 Energy Access

Rural-urban divide Stark differences persist between levels of rural and urban access. In 2012, 26.3% of people in rural areas had access to electricity in the average African country, according to SE4All/GTF. This had risen from 23.8% in 2010, 18.6% in 2000 and 14.6% in 1990. Excluding North Africa and South Africa, the 2012 figure is just 17.8%. In contrast, 69.9% of the urban population in the average African country had access to electricity in 2012, up from 63.7% in 2010, 59.5% in 2000 and 58% in 1990.

Median figures show an even more substantial differential. While the median for the urban population is very similar to the near 70% mean shown above, the median for the rural population shows that more than half of the countries in Africa had access rates of less than 13.7% in 2012 and 9.8% in 2010. The standard deviation shows that while the gap between countries has been Questions about clean cooking decreasing for urban electrification (going from 30% in 2000 to 25% in 2012), the reverse is true for rural The GTF data for access to non-solid cooking fuels point to electrification (28% to 30%). This suggests that the rural an apparent slowing of momentum behind the clean population is being left behind in some countries. cooking fuel movement. These statistics have barely improved since the 2010 baseline was established, with Although SE4All data is only available for 2010 and 2012, increases in access struggling to keep pace with the trends are similar for access to non-solid fuel for population growth. Indeed, the data show declines in cooking. Access among the urban population of the some cases. average African country was 45.9% in 2012, with a median Only 32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cooking of 37.2%. In 2010, the mean was 45.8%, with a median of fuel in 2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely up 36.9%. In rural areas the 2012 average was 21%, but the from 31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990. The compound median was only 4%, compared with 20.6% and 3.7% in annual growth rate has actually declined since 2010, when 2010. it averaged 2.6% compared with an average of 2.7% in the 2000-10 period. The figures show that rural populations are being bypassed by efforts to improve access to sustainable However, this represented an increase in terms of absolute energy. They suggest that the dynamics of improving numbers: on average 18m Africans gained access to non- energy access to 2020 and beyond will be complicated by solid fuel for cooking between 2010 and 2012, compared demographic and cost trends. These estimates suggest to an annual average of 8m in 2000-10. Were the same that energy access initiatives have mostly targeted the number of people to gain access to non-solid cooking fuels ‘low-hanging fruit’ in urban areas. As electrification in every year to 2020 – as the data show happened between these areas moves towards 100%, the rate of increase 2010 and 2012 – then only 32.1% of Africans would have access by the end of the current AEEP target period, could begin to fall off as focus shifts towards more costly leaving nearly 900m people without. periurban and rural energy access. The implications go beyond the negative effects of solid This could potentially slow progress towards meeting cooking fuel use. There appears to be a substantial gap continental targets. However, this trend will be mitigated, between the use of clean cooking fuels and access to to some extent, by the expected large relative increase in electricity, implying that many households with access to the size of the urban population to 2020, compared with power continue to use ‘dirty fuels’ for cooking. This the rural population. Further analysis of these dynamics suggests that issues around the reliability and would be beneficial for identifying initiatives which will affordability of electricity, the cost of household make the maximum impact towards meeting continental appliances, and education about the risks of using solid targets while also revealing constituencies that could be cooking fuel continue to be problematic. left behind.

18 | AEEP Energy Access

Access to electricity Access to non-solid cooking fuel by region, 2012 by region, 2012 North Africa Population North Africa Population 200 200 168 174 2000: 168 174 2000: m 92.3% m 95.4% 150 144 166 173 150 144 166 172 120 120 132 136 100 100 103 Population with access 103 Population with access 50 2012: 50 2012: 100% 99.4% 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012 West Africa West Africa

350 325 350 325 m 308 m 308 300 300 2000: 2000: 250 235 36.3% 250 235 18.7%

200 180 200 180 151 150 126 150 2012: 2012: 100 85 46.5% 100 18.7% 57 58 61 44 50 50 28 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012 Central Africa Central Africa 200 2000: 200 2000: m 23.8% m 14.7% 150 150 109 116 109 116 100 81 100 81 60 60 45 50 38 2012: 50 2012: 19 22 25 13 38.7% 3 12 21.5% 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012 East Africa East Africa 350 329 350 329 m 311 m 311 300 300 2000: 2000: 250 234 14.3% 250 234 8.0%

200 176 200 176 150 150 2012: 2012: 100 74 23.2% 100 8.7% 63 50 33 50 26 28 20 10 18 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012 Southern Africa Southern Africa 200 2000: 200 2000: m m 147 154 37.1% 147 154 38.4% 150 150 119 119 100 95 100 95 65 73 64 68 44 46 50 33 2012: 50 28 2012: 47.1% 44.0% 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012 Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework

AEEP | 19 Energy Access

A new generation of entrepreneurs goes off-grid

Momentum is building quickly behind efforts to give Ltd, which is running an independent solar PV hybrid mini- access to clean, sustainable energy to the hundreds of grid project in rural Tanzania, are attracting considerable millions of Africans who live beyond established grids – interest. Business models may have to evolve to attract the and who are unlikely to be integrated into national larger sums of private capital that will make decentralized transmission infrastructure for the foreseeable future. power projects a significantly bigger contributor to overcoming energy poverty in SSA. European and other governments are providing ever larger amounts of financing and technical assistance to support Many of the best-known projects, such as Renewable off-grid schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). An Energy Solutions for the Lake Victoria Ecosystem (Resolve) increasing number of African governments are integrating in Kenya and Jumeme, have business models underpinned off-grid solutions into their development plans. As SE4All by grant finance from foundations and other NGO sources. Chief Executive Rachel Kyte has observed: “Decentralised But an increasing number of commercial operators are renewable energy will be essential if we are to close the showing interest in developing decentralised projects for energy access gap”. Kyte argues that “with advances in isolated communities, as well as to serve wealthier clients technology and competitive prices, we now need to such as industrial farms or resources industries. Private support leaders to introduce policy reforms and unlock the equity and other investors are asking whether small-scale finance to bring power to the people”. projects can be ‘bundled up’ to draw institutional investors Off-grid projects are usually small-scale, when compared into decentralised clean energy. to ‘conventional’ projects that feed national grids. Where Decentralised, off-grid solutions are receiving strong possible, they are included in the AEEP Power Projects support from European governments and institutions. Database, but their cumulative impact, to date, is very Facilities include Energising Development (EnDev), a multi- limited when it comes to the overall figures. However, donor partnership that promotes sustainable access to more projects are appearing to excite businesses along the modern energy services, and the EU’s Electrification whole value chain – as reflected in the growing Finance Initiative (ElectriFI). Aimed largely at SSA, ElectriFi membership of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE), opened for business with initial funding of €270m from the decentralised clean energy industry association, which the European Commission, in the expectation that is an AEEP Focal Point. European development finance institutions will leverage Start-up businesses such as Jumeme Rural Power Supply significantly more money as the programme rolls out.

20 | AEEP Energy Security

The AEEP’s targets are based on the assumption that a The AEEP’s focus on gas and renewables – which has united Europe is well-placed to facilitate the promotion of gathered pace since the 2010 baseline was established – cross-border energy in and with Africa. This reinforces the allows a practical option for the diversification of energy energy security of both Africa and Europe. International sectors This reduces exposure to fluctuating oil prices and co-operation is essential to safeguard energy supplies. dependence on high carbon-content fossil fuels, such as Vast distances between sources of generation and their coal, diesel and heavy fuel oil; in some cases it can lower feedstocks and areas of electricity demand have led to an the cost of generation. Diversification helps to combat an increase in the number of regional interconnections in over-reliance on a single energy source. Many African development; these projects promise improved economies countries with an over-dependence on hydroelectricity of scale, cheaper electricity and energy supply to those suffer severe power shortages during times of drought, countries with limited natural resources. which are becoming ever more severe as regions of East and West Africa struggle with desertification. These Integration is strongly encouraged by the Programme for pressures may lead hard-pressed governments to procure Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). However, the costly – and often polluting – liquid fuel-fed rental power. slow pace of implementation for PIDA projects and other As the charts below show, based on data from the AEEP cross-border schemes have slowed the trend of increases Power Project Database, changes can be observed since to electricity transfer , which was notable in the AEEP’s 2010, as both hydroelectricity and coal account for lower 2014 Status Report . T he database shows no new operating percentages of the energy mix in 2015, while gas-fired lines completed since 2011, but recent progress on capacity has increased to over 40% of the total, and wind regional transmission projects suggests that, with and solar have increased almost three-fold. However, improved project delivery, the AEEP target of doubling natural gas remains vastly under-utilised as a source of capacity by 2020 could be met. fuel in most African economies.

Among other energy security targets, data collected by the Greater regional integration is under way – with notable AEEP Monitoring Tool shows that gas consumption in progress in the West Africa Power Pool, Southern Africa Africa plateaued in 2012-14, following an almost two-fold Power Pool and East African regions – which will help increase in the decade before. This was due to political and countries to access a wider range of sources of generation. economic challenges that have also had an impact on This will help them to diversify their energy mix and trade natural gas exports to Europe, which fell to 46bcm in electricity to balance system costs, which is crucial to 2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006. reinforcing the supply of sustainable, affordable power.

Installed capacity by technology, 2010 Installed capacity by technology, 2015 Total capacity: 153,017MW Total capacity: 179,611MW

Other thermal Other thermal 17,578MW 20,314MW Nuclear 11.5% Nuclear 11.3% R R en en 1,830MW e Hydroelectricity 31,430MW 20.5% 1,830MW e Hydroelectricity 33,604MW 18.7% 1.2% w 1.0% w a a b b l l e e Pumped storage 1,580MW 0.9% s Pumped storage 1,580MW 1.0% s Coal Coal Wind 3,132MW 1.7% Wind 1,120MW 0.7% 42,998MW 40,046MW Solar 1,546MW 0.9% 26.2% Solar 102MW 0.1% 23.9% Geothermal 219MW 0.1% Geothermal 554MW 0.3% Gas Gas Other renewable 58,349MW Other renewable 763MW 0.5% 73,104MW 950MW 0.5% 38.1% 40.7%

Source: AEEP project database Source: AEEP project database

AEEP | 21 Energy Security

Power pools, power lines and PIDA projects

TUNISIA North African Power Transmission Corridor MOROCCO

ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT Western Sahara (under UN mandate) Nigeria-Algeria (NIGAL) gas pipeline CAPE VERDE MAURITANIA MALI NIGER SUDAN ERITREA SENEGAL GOURBASSI CHAD HEP THE GAMBIA Sambangalou HEP BURKINA DJIBOUTI GUINEA FASO Grand Ethiopian GUINEA-BISSAU FOMI Renaissance Dam (GERD) HEP NIGERIA Kaléta HEP BUMBUNA 3 BENIN HEP GHANA ETHIOPIA SIERRA LEONE CÔTE SOUTH D’IVOIRE LOM CENTRAL A PANGAR SUDAN GILGEL GIBE III HEP I HEP AFRICAN REPUBLIC GILGEL GIBE IV HEP L LIBERIA SOUBRÉ A West African Power HEP TOGO M CAMEROON O Transmission Corridor S EQUATORIAL GUINEA MEMVÉ’ÉLÉ HEP Uganda-Kenya Petroleum UGANDA Products Pipeline SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE O KENYA G ) N E DEMOCRATIC L L GABON O I REPUBLIC OF C V F A Z CONGO RWANDA O Z . A P R Ruzizi III HEP Rusomo Falls HEP E B ( SEYCHELLES R RUZIZI IV HEP BURUNDI OPTIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF INGA Cabinda (Ang.) TANZANIA–KENYA GAS PIPELINE Inga III HEP TANZANIA STIEGLER’S GORGE HEP

North-South Power Transmission Corridor ANGOLA COMOROS Central African MALAWI Interconnection Mayotte ZAMBIA CAHORA BASSA (Fr.) NORTE HEP Batoka Gorge HEP Mphanda Nkuwa HEP Power pools: MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR Maghreb Electricity Committee (Comelec) MAURITIUS West African Power Pool (WAPP) NAMIBIA BOTSWANA Réunion (Fr.) Central African Power Pool (CAPP) Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) MOZAMBIQUE– SOUTH AFRICA OIL PIPELINE Former members of EAPP (Egypt: withdrew in Feb 2016) SWAZILAND Potential members of EAPP (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan)

Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) LESOTHO Unaffiliated country SOUTH Lesotho Highlands HEP AFRICA Angola is a member of CAPP and SAPP Power line Burundi is a member of CAPP and EAPP Energy projects in PIDA-PAP 2020 (Programme for Democratic Republic of Congo is a Infrastructure Development in Africa Priority Action Plan) member of CAPP, EAPP and SAPP Energy projects in PIDA 2040 Libya is a member of Comelec and EAPP Rwanda is a member of EAPP and a Sources: AEEP project database; African Energy Atlas; applicant member of CAPP Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa Tanzania is a member of EAPP and SAPP

22 | AEEP Energy Security

Doubling cross-border interconnections

14 plans are under way to reinforce existing grids and build a GW number of high-voltage transmission backbones across 12 11.8 (based on 2000–15 trend) Total transfer the continent. 10 capacity in 11.6 (based on 2007–15 trend) Africa 9.33 8 11.1 (based on 2010–15 trend) Significant progress expected 6 5.15 forecast In 2014 the AEEP Status Report observed that estimating 4 Source: AEEP the transfer capacities of interconnections was an 2000021504 06 08 10 12 20 project database imprecise science, and this remains the case. However, The electrification of sprawling urban and isolated rural given that word of caution, the AEEP Power Project communities is a major challenge for a continent of such Database shows that approximate maximum transfer diverse countries, large expanses of territory and limited capacity in Africa almost doubled between 2005 and 2011 from 5.48GW to 9.33GW. The updated database shows resources. The high costs of building and operating an that no new operating lines have been built since 2011. electricity grid is reflected in low electrification rates and But statistics alone do not tell the whole story; while the poor condition of much existing infrastructure. The projects could have moved more quickly, there has been technical challenges of delivering electricity from sources progress on a number of major regional schemes. A of generation to consumer areas, often across large number of significant transmission projects are in distances, has proved a barrier to investment in large development or under construction across the continent – conventional forms of energy production. The heavy and these are expected to create a spike in interconnection investment required to build modern electricity grids may capacity over the short- to medium-term. result in over-dependence on the cheapest forms of production – such as polluting diesel power – which Interconnections with a combined capacity of over 4.5GW further increases energy insecurity. are expected to be completed in East Africa in the coming years, including a 220kV Rwanda-Uganda HV line. The The interconnection of national grids across the continent transmission lines between Kagitumba, Mirama and is a major component in the Programme for Infrastructure Shango were completed in October 2015, but delays in Development in Africa (PIDA) and other international building the Birembo and Shando substations means the initiatives because it promotes economies of scale and interconnection is not expected to be operational until comprises an important step towards energy security. The October 2016. construction of cross-border transmission lines allows the import and export of electricity generated by various A 2GW capacity 500kV transmission line connecting sources, providing a means of balancing system costs Ethiopia to Kenya, first conceived in 2006, is moving closer while also allowing African countries to take advantage of to reality with construction expect to start during 2016. cheap generation in neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, a 400kV transmission corridor linking Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda – expanding existing The development of large-scale projects such as the Ruzizi interconnections – is also in development; it is intended to III hydropower project shared by Burundi, Democratic allow 500MW of electricity trade between the three Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, or Ethiopia’s Grand countries. Renaissance Dam, which will generate 6GW – not to mention the Grand Inga dam in DRC which could A number of projects in development will eventually see eventually produce 50GW – make more sense when they the West Africa region fully interconnected. The 225kV can supply multiple markets. CLSG line, which will connect the grids of Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Gambia, has been revived as a However, achieving such interconnections is a complex West African Power Pool (WAPP) priority project. The process in regions which lack harmonised legislation, 1,400km high-voltage line will cost an estimated €365m, compatible grids and integrated currencies or economies. and will connect to the existing Côte d’Ivoire-Benin-Togo- This is not helped by the instability of many national grids Nigeria interconnection. CLSG is expected to be completed and shortages of installed generation capacity. These in 2017. Meanwhile finance is being raised to connect the bottleneck have stalled several of the continent’s many Senegal River Basin Development Organisation (OMVS) planned projects. However, the future looks brighter as network to the CLSG. The 225kV interconnection will

AEEP | 23 Energy Security

initially connect the Selected interconnections in development in East and West Africa electricity network of Guinea to the southern Project Voltage Est. commissioning backbone, after which it date will be extended to Gambia, Guinea-Bissau WAPP and Senegal. This €700m Côte d’Ivoire-Ghana 330kV 2019 project is expected to have a maximum transfer Ghana-Togo-Benin 330kV 2019 capacity of 800MW and be completed by 2019. Nigeria-Benin 330kV 2020

Other projects under way Ghana-Burkina Faso 225kV 2018 in West Africa seek to Ghana-Burkina Faso-Mali 225kV 2020 connect Ghana’s grid to Burkina Faso and Côte Guinea-Mali 225kV 2019 d’Ivoire, which is expected Nigeria-Niger-Burkina Faso-Togo/Benin 330kV 2020 in 2018 and 2019 respectively. OMVG (Senegal-Gambia-Guinea-Guinea Bissau 225kV 2019

In North Africa, 400kV CLSG (Côte d’Ivoire-Liberia-Sierra Leone-Guinea) 225kV 2018 interconnections with a total capacity of 4GW are EAPP planned to link the grids of Ethiopia-Kenya 500kV 2017 Algeria and Tunisia with those of Italy and Spain. Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda 400kV 2016

The North Africa Power Kenya-Tanzania 400kV 2018 Transmission Corridor – a PIDA-Priority Action Project Ethiopia-Rwanda 500kV 2017 – aims to add 4.5GW of HV Rwanda-Burundi 220kV 2022 transmission lines connecting Egypt, Libya, Rwanda-Uganda 220kV 2016 Tunisia, Algeria and Kenya-Tanzania 400kV 2016 Morocco.

African Power Interconnections

Line Voltage Number of (kV) interconnections

<50 4

51-100 3

101-150 9

151-200 2

201-300 16

301-400* 16

>400 2

Source: AEEP Power Projects Database

24 | AEEP Energy Security

Doubling the use of natural gas

oil company (IOC) development plans and the discovery in 250 bcm 2020 target: 215.6 2015 of the giant Zohr offshore gas field – where first 200 production is expected in 2017 – should result in Egypt Consumption of 164.2 150 natural gas returning to significant growth in both production and in Africa 100 120.1 consumption in the period to 2020.

50 58.4 Elsewhere in North Africa, Algerian consumption has risen projection sharply, from 26.4bcm in 2010 to 37.5bcm in 2014. 0 2000021404 06 08 10 12 20 Morocco is also looking to increased demand for gas for power generation and industrial use, which it intends to Increasing domestic use of natural gas in Africa remains an meet with a project to import around 5bcm/yr of liquefied important target for the AEEP as a means of improving natural gas (LNG) to the port at Jorf Lasfar, from where it energy security, raising living standards and helping to will be piped to five new combined cycle gas turbine mitigate the effects of climate change. (CCGT) power stations and other infrastructure.

Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 South African demand, which has stagnated at around show that, despite a number of challenges, the historical 4bcm, is also expected to grow significantly. Pending a trend has been positive, with an almost two-fold increase major discovery offshore or the exploitation of non- in consumption during the last decade. However, conventional reserves, South Africa has limited reserves, consumption plateaued between 2012 and 2014, holding but a push for new gas-fired generation is planned, in a at around 120bcm as a variety of political and policy led by the government but based on private sector macroeconomic challenges had an impact on output. investment. This could be supplied from LNG or, A key factor in this has been falling production levels in potentially, from gas imported from neighbours notably from Mozambique, which has also made a major offshore Africa’s largest consumer, Egypt, where consumption natural gas find in the Rovuma Basin. declined by almost 9% in 2012-14. The fallout from the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’ had a substantial impact on the gas The likelihood that some of the major discoveries made in sector, as investments dried up and existing fields began recent years – in Mozambique, Tanzania and other to decline; Egypt turned from being an exporter to a net countries – coming on stream suggests an increase in importer of natural gas during this period. However, a output that will allow the ambitious AEEP target of period of political stability, a resumption of international 215.6bcm of domestic consumption by 2020 to be met.

Consumption of natural gas in Africa, 2000Ð14 121.8 120.2 120.1 120 113.8 120 Rest of Africa 107.2 bcm Total consumption bcm South Africa 100.9 99.6 34.2 31.6 30.5 100 96.1 100 32.5 Algeria 89.1 85.4 31.9 Egypt 81.1 31.0 26.5 4.0 3.8 4.1 80 74.8 29.9 3.9 80 69.6 25.4 27.5 3.4 3.9 63.8 25.3 3.7 31.0 33.4 37.5 3.5 58.4 22.7 3.5 27.8 60 26.3 60 21.8 3.1 27.2 17.6 2.1 25.4 1.0 24.3 17.4 23.7 1.2 1.0 22.0 23.2 40 1.2 21.4 40 20.2 20.5 19.8 49.6 52.6 51.4 48.0 42.5 45.1 20 38.4 40.8 20 29.7 31.7 31.6 36.5 24.5 26.5 20.0

0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

AEEP | 25 Energy Security

Natural gas infrastructure and trade routes

/ I 1 ARZEW LNG: D E GL1-Z & GL2-Z operating E TT SM A GASSI TOUIL LNG: N M ly A O ta GL3-Z operating TR IC I GALSI R to MEDGAZ to Italy EN EGYPT 2 SKIKDA LNG: to Spain

GL1-K & GL2-K operating S Declining gas production has led to Egypt

M T A R GPDF/GME 2 E D becoming an importer of LNG, but a recovery

R L to Spain, Portugal El-Haouaria T ly O

S O is expected in the coming years following a Tunis a P 1 Skikda N It

E H Tahaddart X E o resumption of developments and the giant Arzew TUNISIA R t E

Offtake at Tahaddart power plant Beni Saf G N

G 30tcf Zohr discovery. GULF OF O N FUTURE LNG GABÈS L ZOHR Jorf Lasfar HASSI NILE to Ashkelon, Israel IMPORTS Mellitah DELTA R’MEL BERKINE Benghazi SEGAS MOROCCO BASIN ELNG No exports from SEGAS since 2012, Idku D El-Arish Marsa am greatly reduced exports from ELNG al-Brega ietta LIBYA AGP to Jordan, Syria, Turkey ALGERIA GHADAMES Taba BASIN WESTERN Ain Closed DESERT Sokhna ILLIZI 2011, SIRTE FSRU SAHARA BASIN BASIN Zeit LNG upgrade EGYPT Bay FIELDS required IMPORTS MAURITANIA Western UPPER EGYPT Gas from the Sahara GAS PIPELINE (under UN Banda gas field mandate) ABBREVIATIONS Aswan is to be used for AGP: Arab Gas Pipeline NIGERIA–ALGERIA a domestic (NIGAL) PIPELINE ALNG: Angola LNG power plant. EGLNG: Equatorial Guinea LNG SUDAN MAURITANIA ELNG: Egyptian LNG CAPE ELPS: Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System BANDA VERDE MALI FID: final investment decision GREATER NIGER FLNG: floating LNG SUDAN TORTUE FSRU: floating storage & regasification unit ERITREA CHADGALSI: Gasdotto Algeria Sardegna Italia SENEGAL GME: Gazoduc Maghreb Europe THE GAMBIA FUTURE LNG GPDF: Gazoduc Pedro Duran Farrell EXPORTS BURKINA MZLNG: Mozambique LNG DJIBOUTI FASO Djibouti Ville GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA NLNG: Nigeria LNG GHANA BENIN NIGERIA SEGAS: Spanish-Egyptian Gas Company TOGO WAGP: West African Gas Pipeline CÔTE C SIERRA o SOMALIA to D’IVOIRE La LEONE A L n g b T o o o Ajaokuta ETHIOPIA o é m u s SOUTH a m ELPS CENTRAL d é CALUB, LIBERIA z a SUDAN 3 Future FSRU at: Abidjan e AFRICAN REPUBLIC HILALA Jacqueville, Tema (Côte d’Ivoire); FOXTROT, 3 P 5 AG 4 CAMEROON Aboadze, Tema, Keta (Ghana); PANTHÈRE W 6 TANZANIA Cotonou (Benin) D N E NIGER DELTA E A 7 A Chinese-built pipeline from LA IL F 4 OK LNG at Olokola Free Trade Zone: E B O EQUAT.GUINEA Lolabé , U K UGANDA Mtwara to Dar es Salaam is U J project on hold D , N U N A ST & P O increasing availability of gas E S G K T Libreville ) KENYA 5 Brass LNG: N E L for domestic power L FID awaited GABON O I C V F A generation. NLNG at Bonny: Z DEMOCRATIC O Z RWANDA six trains operating, awaiting LEOPARD . A P R REPUBLIC OF FUTURE LNG E B FID on Train 7, Train 8 planned ( Mombasa R CONGO BURUNDI SEYCHELLES SE LNG at Qua Iboe: M’BOUNDI IMPORTS future export terminal LITCHENDJILI OFFSHORE CABINDA Soyo TANZANIA FUTURE LNG 6 EGLNG at Punta Europa: LOWER ALNG Dar es Salaam FLNG EXPORTS operating; future EGLNG2 LNG CONGO EXPORTS CHEWA, PWEZA Future export terminal at BASIN 7 SONGO SONGO Lolabé, FLNG at Kribi LONTRA (Cameroon) WEST AFRICA OFFSHORE RUVUMA/ Levels of gas flowing through the West Africa Mtwara Palma ROVUMA BASIN Gas Pipeline have failed to meet expectations. ANGOLA MALAWI MZLNG COMOROS FUTURE LNG C™te dÕIvoire and Ghana are looking to develop FLNG Mayotte EXPORTS domestic gas options and turn to LNG import ZAMBIA (Fr.) schemes for power generation. E U Q NAMIBIA I ZIMBABWE B Major gas fields and recent The Kudu gas-to-power M MADAGASCAR A PANDE MAURITIUS significant discoveries project is making slow Z progress following the NAMIBIA O TEMANE Réunion BOTSWANA M Gas pipeline: Windhoek government (Fr.) Commissioned declaring it a priority project Pipeline in late 2012. A much delayed final investment decision is Maputo now expected in early 2016, Secunda SWAZILAND EAST AFRICA but a new upstream partner Gas reserves are mounting up LNG (liquefied Oranjemund is still needed. KUDU offshore following a string of major natural gas) project: Richards Bay Commissioned discoveries. MozambiqueÕs IBHUBESI SOUTH Durban estimated 100tcf of reserves along Pipeline LESOTHO AFRICA with TanzaniaÕs 57tcf is expected to supply significant exports to Asia as LNG liquefaction plant and export terminal Saldanha Bay FUTURE LNG Mossel Bay well as domestic power. LNG regasification plant and import terminal IMPORTS Cape FSRU Town BREDASDORP Sources: AEEP project database; African Energy Atlas

26 | AEEP Energy Security

Exporting gas from Africa to Europe

200 bcm 2020 target: 158.0 150 African gas exports 100 to Europe 61.5 46.0 50 41.9 projection 0 2000021404 06 08 10 12 20

Supported by world-scale natural gas reserves, North Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa to other continents are Africa has established itself as a major exporter of gas to making slow progress. Angola’s new LNG export terminal Europe, through liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes and has never reached its expected production levels; it shut four gas pipelines connecting Libya and Tunisia to Italy via down due to technical failure in 2014, only a year after its Greenstream and Transmed respectively, and Algeria and first exports to Brazil, but was expected to reopen as this Morocco to Spain and Portugal through Medgaz and Status Report Update went to press. Angola, Nigeria and GPDF/GME (as shown in the map on page 26). Nigeria has other exporters into the Atlantic Basin and other gas markets have been affected by price volatility and intense also emerged as a significant exporter through the six- competition, notably from the production of gas from train Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) company. shales in North America. African exports to Europe reached a peak in 2006 at International companies are looking hard at major 84.9bcm, but have since been on the decline. According to discoveries and export potential in Tanzania and the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 , total Mozambique. It is calculated that Mozambique has exports fell to just 46bcm in 2014. LNG exports to Europe sufficient reserves to become the world’s largest supplier have been in gradual decline since 2006, reaching a low of of LNG after Australia and Qatar, with a start to 20.5bcm in 2014, aggravated by the collapse in Egyptian production expected in the early 2020s. The negative LNG exports from 2011. Pipeline exports also slumped implications of prevailing low oil prices, which still feed during the period, to just 25.5bcm in 2014, with conflict in into gas pricing, may slow projects, but the growth in spot Libya halting exports through Greenstream. sales of LNG suggests new markets will emerge.

African gas exports to Europe, 2000Ð14 90 90 84.9 Total exports bcm bcm 78.9 80 77.5 78.7 78.9 80 72.7 66.3 70 64.5 LNG 70 63.2 61.5 61.7 58.4 41.6 60 57.5 35.2 37.0 33.1 60 33.5 50.8 31.2 50 30.2 22.4 46.0 50 27.2 32.4 26.4 29.0 20.8 e

40 l 40 b

a 20.5 l i a

30 By pipeline v 30 a

n

45.6 w 42.3 43.3 41.9 39.2 o 39.3 20 d 20

34.3 34.3 k 35.1 31.0 29.4 30.8 a 30.0 e

r 25.5 b 10 10 o n 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

AEEP | 27 Baseline Monitoring

Renewable Energy

Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015, 60 75% scenario: 55.30 and AEEP 2020 targets GW 50% scenario: 48.63 Hydroelectric 40 AEEP target: 43.01 power Linear trend: 37.36 45 25% scenario: 41.97 20 GW 43.01 0 40 2010 2015 2020

8 75% scenario: 8.30 35 35.18 GW 50% scenario: 6.62 6 AEEP target: 6.12 33.01 Linear trend: 5.14 4 25% scenario: 4.93 30 2 0 25 20102015 2020

3 75% scenario: 2.98 GW AEEP target: 2.94 20 50% scenario: 2.49 2 Linear trend: 2.05 25% scenario: 2.00 15 1

0 20102015 2020 10

6 75% scenario: 5.96 6.12 Wind GW 5 50% scenario: 4.61 3.13 4 1.12 Other 25% scenario: 3.25 1.55 2.94 0.98 renewables Linear trend: 2.99 1.50 2 0 0.10 0.60 Solar 2015 AEEP target: 0.60 2010 2020 0 targets 20102015 2020 Source: AEEP project database

Renewable energy technologies are critical to the its development assistance portfolio for climate change- development of modern, clean and sustainable electricity related projects. This will, of course, provide substantial supply industries. Their technical development and finance for renewable generation and transmission geographical spread is central to efforts to reduce global projects – some of it off-grid, as well as strengthening greenhouse gas emissions, as enshrined in the UN existing utilities and national transmission and Conference on Climate Change (COP21) Paris Agreement. distribution systems. EU support will also seek to promote This commitment is being followed up within a framework more holistic programmes across a ‘nexus’ of sectors – for of high level meetings, including the COP22 talks, to be example, linking energy projects to urban development, held in Marrakech, Morocco on 7-18 November 2016. and access to water and sanitation.

With a stronger focus on renewables – drawn from the Renewable technology has become increasingly cost- continent’s hydropower resources to solar, wind and competitive in recent years. The biggest developments to biomass, and a range of cutting-edge new technologies – date, in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Morocco, many African countries are better positioned than ever have demonstrated that large programmes can be before to exploit the new deal COP21 offers to help them delivered on time and on budget. This is now being supercede old, often polluting technologies. replicated elsewhere, including Egypt, which has major wind and solar programmes. The European Union is strongly committed to supporting this trend, with a commitment to allocate at least 20% of For go-ahead governments and ambitious entrepreneurs,

28 | AEEP Renewable Energy

emerging renewables industries provide a means of building a manufacturing base, delivering jobs and Encouraging partnership: the RECP diversifying ownership. The technologies offer particular The AEEP’s Africa-EU Renewable Energy Cooperation advantages: for example, they are well-suited for use in Programme (RECP) is a multi-donor programme that has remote rural areas – with technology such as solar fostered technical expertise and encouraged business photovoltaic (PV) comparatively simple to operate and cooperation since 2010. RECP seeks to facilitate an enabling environment for renewable developments by supporting construct – and currency risks are reduced, when improved regulatory frameworks and strengthening compared to many conventional thermal schemes. institutions through its policy advisory services, meetings and The AEEP Power Project Database, created to provide the other instruments. This includes support for European and African entrepreneurs through the provision of dedicated main data flows in the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report , has market information. RECP is also rolling out Finance been updated for this Status Report Update . The data for Facilitator, an advisory platform to support meso-scale generation plants in operation and planned for completion renewable energy project preparation in Sub-Saharan Africa. in the period to 2020 suggest that in some sectors – such as the installation of solar capacity – developments have visit: http://www.africa-eu-renewables.org largely surpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, which were agreed in 2007, when the global renewables industry was at a very different stage of development. In West Africa there are few projects of note operating, other than Masdar’s 15MW solar PV project in Mauritania, However, this impressive performance is skewed by the BXC Ghana’s 20MW solar PV plant (which began progress made in a handfull of countries; the experience commissioning tests late in 2015) and the 25.5MW of many countries across Africa is that successfully Cabeólica wind farm in Cape Verde. The 13.6MW Ngong II implementing renewables projects remains problematic wind farm remains the only solar or wind power project for many developers, while transmission and distribution larger than 10MW operating in East Africa. There is (T&D) systems have yet to catch up with developments. virtually no wind or solar power in Central Africa and very little in Southern Africa outside of South Africa. Hydropower dominates at present Hydropower remains the dominant renewable technology …solar and wind pipeline is growing supplying African grids. Away from North Africa and RSA, However, a growing pipeline of projects, backed by an there is only limited solar and wind power capacity increasingly formidable array of financial instruments and feeding the grid. The largest solar scheme operational in technical expertise, is pushing governments to resolve East Africa remains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom Youth longstanding problems. Across the continent the market Village solar PV plant, developed by Gigawatt Global and for renewable energy is deepening as legal and regulatory commissioned by Scatec Solar in September 2014. reforms are required to keep pace with increasingly well-

Installed renewable capacity by technology in 2010 and 2015, and 2020 projections 2010 2015 2020 Total capacity: 35,214MW Total capacity: 41,365MW Pumped storage 1,580MW 3.8% Pumped storage 1,580MW Wind 3,132MW Wind 4.5% 7.6% 12.0% Wind 1,120MW Solar 1,546MW Solar 3.2% 3.7% 8.5% Solar 102MW Geothermal 554MW 0.3% 1.3% Geothermal & other renewables Hydroelectricity Geothermal 219MW Other renewables 4.2% 31,430MW 0.6% 950MW 89.3% Other renewables Hydroelectricity 2.3% Hydroelectricity 763MW 33,604MW & pumped storage 2.2% 81.2% 75.3%

Source: AEEP project database

AEEP | 29 Renewable Energy

developed projects – and nascent markets are emerging. Other countries are likely to experience wind and solar transmission difficulties. Concerns have been raised over Analysis of the project pipeline suggests Nigeria could the effect on grid stability of the landmark 310MW Lake bring between two and four renewable energy projects to Turkana wind project, under construction in Kenya, which close in 2016, with capacity of around 100MW. Also in requires completion of a 428km transmission line. Zambia Nigeria, a procurement programme is being designed with Electricity Supply Company has issues taking power from support from Germany’s GiZ, which is likely to start up two new 50MW Scaling Solar photovoltaic plants, while in during the year. More projects are expected to follow the Uganda, hydroelectric power plants recently sat completed BXC Ghana project, although issues remain to be resolved. but without access to the grid pending coordination Zambia, Senegal, and Madagascar have all joined the International Finance Corporation’s fast-moving Scaling between local authorities. The good news is that these Solar initiative. perennial problems have now been widely recognised – and long overdue investments and reforms are starting to Questions of transmission be made in response. For solar and wind power in particular, the fragility of Among renewables growth markets, Egypt may need to antiquated transmission systems has been a longstanding consider strengthening its transmission backbone to take impediment, despite work to reinforce grids. Offtake electricity generated at solar PV projects in the south; agreements have, in most cases, been underwritten by these are being developed under the first round of Cairo’s state and development finance institutions – suggesting innovative renewable energy feed-in tariff scheme. the system of guarantees and insurance will be tested as Negotiations were under way as this report went to press an increasing number of renewable generation projects to put in place a standardised power purchase agreement demand significantly more T&D infrastructure. Even RSA, (PPA) for solar and wind power; the resulting document is with its sophisticated grid infrastructure, has struggled to seen by experts to be a critical factor in attracting keep up with the geographical spread of renewables investors to the market as Egypt rolls out its ambitious projects and pressures on its transmission system. development plans.

30 | AEEP Renewable Energy

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AEEP | 31 Renewable Energy

Hydroelectric power

60 in the period since the last Status Report . However, the GW 55.30 (75% scenario) target should be comfortably met as a number of large 50 48.63 (50% scenario) 43.01 (AEEP target) projects are due to come online over the 2016-20 period. 40 35.18 33.01 41.97 (25% scenario) 37.36 (linear trend) 30 Installed Between 2010 and 2015, 2,174MW of hydropower 20 hydroelectric capacity was added. Additions were fairly evenly spread capacity between the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with 10 projections 689MW added in West Africa, 560MW in Central Africa, 0 Source: AEEP 20102015 2020 project database 515MW in Southern Africa, and 411MW in East Africa. This does not tell the whole story, however. Rehabilitation work Hydropower can be a victim of climate change – as has been undertaken at a large number of dilapidated disastrous water shortages in some regions leave dams facilities since the 2000s, improving performance and barely able to generate electricity – but it also holds a key reliability. With much of the continent’s 35,304MW to providing clean, sustainable baseload energy, which can hydropower capacity very old and operating well below its be produced from the continent’s abundant hydrological potential output, rehabilitation has the potential to add basins, in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia large amounts of power to the grid. and several other ‘water towers’. Run-of-river potential The AEEP Power Project Database shows that, with its Large HEP projects dominate the AEEP Power Project capacity to generate large volumes of energy, hydroelectric Database, but the AEEP is well aware that smaller projects power (HEP) remains the dominant renewable technology can have a very big impact in providing energy for a large operating on the continent – and will remain so in the portion of the rural population in Africa. Work is under pipeline of projects being developed in the period to 2020 way to improve the commercial prospects of small run-of- and beyond. Having turned away from large HEP projects river systems for rural electrification. In several countries, in the previous decade due to concerns about such as Rwanda and Uganda, considerable progress has environmental and social impacts, many donors are been made, supported by European instruments such as looking to become involved in the sector again, but with a KfW’s GET-FIT scheme. new system of safeguards in place. With the advantage of being able to provide cheap power Judged by the data, progress towards the AEEP’s target of 24 hours a day, small-scale HEP has considerable potential. adding 10GW capacity increases has not been substantial The cost of identifying new sites on a scale which makes

New hydroelectric power generation capacity, 2000Ð15 2,290 2,200 2,200 MW MW 2,000 2,000

1,800 1,800 Average HEP 1,600 capacity added each 1,600 year, 2000-15: 1,400 439MW 1,400

1,200 1,200

1,000 1,000

800 800 588 593 600 600 515 492 441 463 438 394 400 400 234 258 186 200 200 73 20 3 36 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: AEEP project database

32 | AEEP Renewable Energy

the mass production of turbines viable, has been an issue. project pipeline in Ethiopia, and studies carried out by However, improvements to satellite imaging and Coyne et Bellier (Tractebel Group), Fichtner and Lahmeyer accompanying software could help to identify thousands International. But China has built up the largest presence of prospective sites (as it can optimise solar-powered mini- in building – and financing – HEP schemes. On the Victoria grids), suggesting substantial progress to come. Nile in Uganda, Sinohydro has been building the 600MW Karuma dam since 2013; its next phase of development is ‘Huge pipeline of projects’ due to be finished in 2018, supported by a $1.4bn loan from the Export-Import Bank of China. China International African HEP will benefit from a huge pipeline of projects Water and Electric Corporation (CIWEC) is building the which are under construction and expected to come into 183MW Isimba dam, which has raised concerns from local operation over the next few years. communities and the World Bank because of its potential Most eye-catching are developments in Ethiopia, where impact on tourism, the environment and cultural heritage. construction of the huge 6GW Grand Ethiopian In Cameroon, Sinohydro is building the 200MW Memve’ele Renaissance Dam (GERD) is well under way. Despite HEP, for operation in mid-2017. Construction is expected serious concerns about water flows expressed by to start in mid-2016 at the 420MW Nachtigal HEP, which is downstream countries, GERD’s first two units are expected being developed by EDF Energy, the International Finance to begin generating by the end of 2016. Ethiopian Electric Corporation and the Cameroon government. In Côte Power Company (EEPCo) reported that the first four d’Ivoire, Sinohydro has been building the 274MW Soubré 187MW turbines at the 1,870MW Gilgel Gibe III dam dam since 2013, and on the border between Benin and began operating early in 2016, with the rest expected to Togo it has begun work on the 147MW Adjarala HEP. follow later in 2016. EEPCo is considering other large HEP projects, including Gilgel Gibe IV (2GW), Tams (1.7GW) and HEP projects that came online in 2015 include the 160MW Lom Pangar dam in Cameroon and 28MW Nyabarongo I in Karadobi (1.6GW). These developments will be welcomed, Rwanda. The 120MW Itezhi Tezhi plant in Zambia began providing their environmental and social impacts are well operating in January 2016, although drought has cut understood and safeguards put in place. output to a fraction of installed capacity. In Guinea, the European companies have long been active in the HEP 240MW Kaleta dam was commissioned in mid-2015 by sector, as reflected in Italian firm Salini Costruttori’s CIWEC – also contractor for the 450MW Souapiti dam.

Hydroelectric power installed capacity, 2000-15 Hydrological basins and water towers 1 Northwest coast 35.2 2Mediterranean 35 34.4 34.7 south coast 33.8 2 33.0 33.3 3 North interior 32.5 GW MIDDLE 4Senegal ATLAS RANGE 2 5 West coast 30.2 30.2 6Volta 29.6 30 29.1 29.6 1 3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 Total installed 3 hydroelectric generation 10 capacity in Africa 25 9 4 7 JOS 8 ETHIOPIAN PLATEAU 5 HIGHLANDS 6 10 20 Average hydro FOUTA 5 5 capacity added each DJALLON 12 11 year, 2000-15: 7Niger 9 439MW 8 Lake Chad 14 15 15 9Nile ALBERTINE KENYAN 10 Red Sea / RIFT HIGHLANDS Gulf of Aden coast 13 11 Rift Valley 11 SOUTHERN 12 Shebelle & Juba ANGOLAN HIGHLANDS 16 10 13 East central coast PLATEAU LUFILIAN 14 Gulf of Guinea, east coast ARC 15 Congo 17 16 Southwest coast 17 Zambezi 18 24 25 5 18 South interior 19 23 CENTRAL HIGH 19 Namibia coast PLATEAU 20 Orange LESOTHO 21 South Africa west coast HIGHLANDS Sources: 22 South Africa east coast 20 0 FAO-Aquastat; 23 Limpopo 21 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 15 24 Indian Ocean coast 22 UNEP (2010), Source: AEEP project database 25 Madagascar Africa Water Atlas

AEEP | 33 Renewable Energy

Solar power

the solar industry’s success. While progress is undoubtedly 6,000 5,958 (75% scenario) MW being made, away from the major markets of North Africa 5,000 4,606 (50% scenario) and South Africa there is much to do before solar and wind 4,000 power plants make an significant input into feeding 3,254 (25% scenario) 3,000 Installed 2,989 (linear trend) national grids. The largest solar power plant in East Africa solar 2,000 1,546 remains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom Youth Village solar generation 1,000 capacity projections PV developed by Gigawatt Global and commissioned by 102 602 (AEEP target) 0 Source: AEEP Scatec Solar in September 2014. In West Africa there are 20102015 2020 project database few projects of note operating other than Masdar’s 15MW photovoltaic project in Mauritania and BXC Ghana’s With some of the world’s strongest irradiation levels, solar 20MW PV project. has long been expected to have a big role to play in Africa’s Solar products appear to be having the most impact, energy future. That potential is now being confirmed, from notably rooftop solar programmes, in a majority of African the implementation of world-scale projects in Morocco economies. Utility-scale solar is being held back by low and Republic of South Africa (RSA), to impressive growth in tariffs, inadequate regulation and weak transmission the rooftop solar market, which is helping to mitigate the systems. Efforts are under way to improve the situation, impact of intermittent power supply and provide at least such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s some access to power for households not yet connected to Scaling Solar initiative, which is offering a holistic package the grid. of support to prospective developers in three countries. In Utility-scale solar parks have proven to be an effective way Zambia, the first country to sign up to Scaling Solar, eleven of expanding generation in a short timeframe. Large solar companies have prequalified to bid to build two 50MW projects to date have not suffered the delays and cost plants. The initiative is forcing the government to confront overruns characteristic of some other technologies. problems around governance and transmission which, if Concentrated solar power (CSP) can now, in some cases, addressed, will make solar more appealing to investors. deliver 12 hours of storage, enabling generators to help The KfW-sponsored Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs meet morning peak demand. (GET-FIT) programme in Uganda has underpinned the Mini-grid technology continues to improve. Many 10MW Soroti PV plant and a 10MW plant at Tororo is countries are working to put in place regulatory and expected to follow later in 2016. Development finance financial structures to develop a commercial model for institutions (DFIs) are playing a key facilitating role in solar powered mini- and micro-grids. Solar lamps, USB assisting governments in the design of appropriate chargers and other products are having a transformative procurement programmes. Thus Germany’s GIZ is working impact on households previously reliant on kerosene in Nigeria to design a new solar initiative. IFC hopes to lamps and long walks to mobile phone charging stations. include Nigeria in its Scaling Solar programme.

For now, the AEEP Africa Power Project Database relates overwhelmingly to utility and commercial solar power Models for utility-scale projects plants. But as rooftop and mini-grid markets expand there Morocco and RSA demonstrate what can be achieved will be a need to monitor these technologies more closely when a solar procurement programme is structured to reflect the new African reality. effectively. Morocco’s solar programme has benefitted from strong political support and robust enabling Exponential success structures, including Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (Masen). This has been complemented by financial backing The solar sector’s exponential success is revealed by data from the WBG, AfDB and other multilaterals, KfW and that show the AEEP Political Target of adding 500MW other DFIs. In the few months from end-2015 to early 2016 more generation capacity by 2020 was met only four years Masen began commercial operations at the 160MW Noor I after the 2010 baseline was set – and is expected to have CSP project’s first phase. This is part of the planned been met four times over by the end of 2016. Installed 510MW Ouarzazate solar complex, which should be capacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW, compared with completed in the period to 2020 – a record of achievement 103MW in 2010. which is encouraging greater participation by independent However, there is good reason to be cautious about the of power producers (IPPs).

34 | AEEP Renewable Energy

Other countries are investing heavily, and attracting funds, Among important initiatives, the European Commission to utility-scale solar, including Egypt, which is promoting and Dutch DFI the Netherlands Development Finance IPPs. Across the continent, larger scale solar schemes are Company (FMO) began implementation of the being promoted. Notable developments are expected in Electrification Finance Initiative (ElectriFI) to coincide with energy poor regions such as the Sahel, where Chad, the UN Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in late Senegal and other governments are promoting utility- 2015. Rwanda has requested $50m from the Scaling Up scale schemes. Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to back its Renewable Energy Fund, which aims to catalyse private A flexible technology for off-grid sector investments in off-grid and mini-grid solar PV by developing a comprehensive strategy for off-grid DFIs and private developers are increasingly focusing on electrification. off-grid and mini-grid solutions. By creating the right environment for private sector operators and investors, an Pilot mini-grid projects initiated by NGOs and charitable exponential increase in activity could follow in areas and corporate foundations have become sufficiently unlikely to be connected to the main grid systems for established for private sector developers and government many years. Offgrid advocates argue that this would utilities to begin pilots of their own (see Access ). circumvent the challenge of piecing together weak The market for solar products such as lanterns and mobile transmission and distribution systems while expanding recharging stations is growing rapidly. SolarAid – a charity access to energy poor communities. founded by renewable developer SolarCentury and funded An increasing number of African countries are putting in in part by 5% of its profits – and its social enterprise place legislation and regulations to support nascent off- SunnyMoney has sold 1.7m of its solar lamps, priced at grid and mini-grid industries. DFI initiatives and funds $10 each, in rural communities in Africa. It aims to have proliferated to support this. However, work remains eliminate the use of kerosene lanterns, which are to be done to establish model commercial and regulatory expensive and contribute to indoor air pollution. The systems and significant questions remain to be answered market is deepening. In its 2015 impact report, SolarAid about the ability of off-grid solutions to meet the said that in 2009 it sold just 5,000 lanterns in Tanzania but ambitious targets set for them. by autumn 2015 had sold a cumulative 904,528.

Solar generation capacity, 2010Ð15 Photovoltaic solar electricity potential

1,600 1,546 MW Total installed 1,400 solar generation capacity in Africa

1,200 Average solar 1,178 capacity added each year, 2010-15: 246MW 1,000

841 800 New solar capacity Yearly sum of global irradiation incident on optimally-inclined equator- 600 oriented photovoltaic modules, 1985-2004 period average, kWh/m2 368 400 337 More than 2,600 2,400 – 2,600 209 2,200 – 2,400 200 127 128 102 2,000 – 2,200 35 25 1,800 – 2,000 1 Sources: HelioClim-1 0 1,600 – 1,800 database; 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PVGIS, European Source: AEEP project database Less than 1,600 Communities

AEEP | 35 Renewable Energy

Wind power

8,000 8,299 (75% scenario) a turbine manufacturing plant in Morocco and a growing MW 6,616 (50% scenario) number of projects in Republic of South Africa (RSA). 6,000 6,120 (AEEP target) Investment in RSA has been encouraged by the great 5,144 (linear trend) Installed 4,934 (25% scenario) success of the government’s Renewable Energy 4,000 wind 3,132 generation Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) capacity programme. 2,000 1,120 projections 0 Source: AEEP An analysis of projects that have announced expected 20102015 2020 project database commercial operation dates in the AEEP Power Project Database suggests the AEEP Political Target of adding As one of the cheapest sources of renewable power, wind 5,000MW wind power by 2020 can be met, by ensuring technology can play a big role in the development of the that 43% of projects in the pipeline are completed on time. electricity supply industry in Africa. To date, major wind Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been added, power projects have been largely restricted to the more than doubling the 2010 capacity of 1,120MW. industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa. The gains are heavily concentrated in the continent’s most The industry suffers logistical constraints on the continent, industrialised countries. The regional breakdown shows for example a lack of large cranes and poor access roads, that most countries are being left behind. While North while also being heavily impacted by disputes over land Africa has capacity to date of 1,807MW and South Africa rights and compensation. But it has the potential to drive 1,070MW, East Africa has only 223MW, West Africa industrial development, as well as produce essential 31.4MW, and Central Africa and Southern Africa (excluding energy; this is underlined by Siemens’ decision to invest in RSA) have less than 1MW between them.

3,132 Wind generation capacity, 2000Ð15 3,000 3,000 MW MW 2,750 2,750

2,500 2,419 2,500 Average wind 2,250 capacity added each 2,250 year, 2000-15: Total installed 186MW wind generation 2,000 capacity in Africa 2,000

1,750 1,750 1,538 1,500 1,500 1,342 1,256 1,250 1,120 1,250

1,000 1,000 854 881

750 673 678 712 750 533 542 552 552 500 500 305 228 228 New wind 265 250 174 capacity 177 196 250 121 136 54 87 11 0 9100 5 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: AEEP project database

36 | AEEP Renewable Energy

The project pipeline looks set to maintain this trend, with only 533MW projects planned in East Africa and 256MW in West Africa. In Southern Africa (ex-RSA) only 45MW is planned.

Problems to confront Kenya shows the opportunities and challenges that Sub- Saharan countries are facing in developing wind power projects. While the 310MW Lake Turkana project has been successfully financed and is scheduled to start a three- year commissioning process later this year, the 428km transmission line required to connect the project to the grid has been delayed following problems with wayleave. This means that offtaker KenGen may have to make payments under the take-or-pay arrangement for power it cannot evacuate until the transmission line project is complete.

There are also issues of grid stability in Kenya and many other jurisdictions, including RSA. DFIs have been working with Kenyan national transmission utility Ketraco to help mitigate the impact of integrating Lake Turkana’s wind power with the grid. Such is the concern, that the World Bank has pulled back from the transmission project.

Issues of securing land can be problematic. Also in Kenya, the 60.8MW Kinangop project has run out of funds after long-running – and at moments violent – disputes over compensation for landowners. These issues are a feature of developing wind power projects across the continent. There have also been protests in South Africa over some wind projects.

Procurement successes Such issues cannot be ignored by developers and their financiers, but the wind sector can also point to some considerable successes. These include the Cabeólica project in Cape Verde,which was showcased in the 2014 Status Report (page 33).

The largest procurement programmes in wind are currently in Egypt, Morocco and RSA. Egypt’s 547MW Zafarana wind complex is the largest on the continent, and more units are planned to be added through the country’s feed-in tariff and other programmes.

Falling costs have made wind very competitive. Having the fully indexed price of power was R0.62 ($0.04)/kWh. called for bids to develop five wind power projects with The REIPPP’s success is evident in the price, which has 850MW combined capacity, Moroccan state utility Office been halved from R1.363 ($0.09)/kWh in the first round. National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau Potable (ONEE) Wind power has proved successful in developing local eventually received a leading bid of $0.03/kWh from seven manufacturing bases in North and South Africa. Siemens is submissions. planning turbine blade manufacturing facilities in In RSA, onshore wind power projects have proved by far Morocco and Egypt while facilities have already been the cheapest source of projects procured through the opened in South Africa, which have supplied components REIPPP programme. In the fourth round of the programme to wind power projects in the country.

AEEP | 37 Renewable Energy

Tripling other renewables

overtake biomass in around 2017-18. Other renewable 3,000 2,978 (75% scenario) 2,943 (AEEP target) resources are being explored, but have yet to impact on MW Installed 2,487 (50% scenario) geothermal and the AEEP data. These include landfill gas, of which many 2,000 2,054 (linear trend) other renewable 1,995 (25% scenario) projects are planned, but take an age to develop. generation capacity 1,503 Geothermal projects have benefitted from financial 1,000 981 instruments designed to overcome the risks associated projections with the early stages of development, led by the 0 Source: AEEP 20102015 2020 project database Geothermal Risk Mitigation Facility (GRMF), which has awarded grants in Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda to private companies and Generating electricity from biomass and geothermal state-owned enterprises. The GRMF was established by the sources offers many advantages. Both energy sources can African Union Commission (AUC), German Federal Ministry provide reliable baseload power at low prices. Geothermal for Economic Co-operation and Development and EU- can be developed on a large scale and is well suited to Africa Infrastructure Trust Fund (ITF) via KfW in 2012. It supplying the grid 24 hours a day; costs can be low, at received an initial €20m from Germany and €30m EU-ITF- between $0.04-0.08/kWh. Exploiting this technology KfW. The UK has come in with £47m, since the 2014 Status forms part of the rationale behind the Ethiopia-Kenya Report (page 49), where the GRMF was a Case Study. interconnection project, where Kenyan geothermal baseload is likely to be traded for peak hydropower from Biomass projects have predominantly been developed by Ethiopia, once the transmission line is complete. Biomass private sector industrial players to meet some or all of fuelled by agricultural waste can be used to power remote their own power requirements.In 2015, 52.2% of biomass areas and stabilise the grid. However, progress expanding capacity was in Southern Africa, overwhelmingly in South the use of both has been slow. Africa, 37.4% in East Africa, 5.4% in West Africa, 2.9% in North Africa, and 2% in Central Africa. Despite huge geothermal resources along the Rift Valley – Africa’s most promising region for harnessing energy from the earth’s core – only the Olkaria complex in Kenya has been exploited so far on a large scale, while developments Biomass and geothermal generation capacity, 2010Ð15 at other sites have been delayed. There is a serious push to 1,000 develop geothermal power in Ethiopia (led by the 1GW 950 Total installed Corbetti project), and Djibouti has projects, but other MW biomass generation countries have yet to take off. Biomass is similarly limited capacity in Africa in its use for electricity generation to more industrialised 800 778 788 788 countries, despite it potential in poorer economies. 762 763

The AEEP’s Power Project Database shows that some 1,410MW will need to be added from other renewable sources to treble the amount of generation from biomass 600 554 554 and geothermal resources from their 2010 levels. Analysis of the current project pipeline suggests that because the Total installed timelines for a number of larger geothermal projects in geothermal generation Kenya have slipped, 73% of projects would have to be 400 capacity in Africa completed on time for this target to reached. Between 2010 and 2015 the completion rate was around 75%. 296 258 While biomass in 2015 had more capacity – 950MW 219 219 222 200 compared with 554MW for geothermal – the project 162 pipeline is considerably smaller. The lead times on biomass New geothermal capacity projects are potentially quite short, and the industry is New biomass capacity responsive to positive regulatory and financial reforms, 35 36 001 15 3 10 0 0 but a majority of developments are moving slowly. At 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 current rates, geothermal capacity is anticipated to Source: AEEP project database

38 | AEEP Renewable Energy

Sub-Saharan renewables projects

West Africa East Africa Selected renewables projects (commissioned and pipeline): Selected renewables projects (commissioned and pipeline): CÔTE D’IVOIRE LIBERIA DJIBOUTI SOUTH SUDAN Louga • Hydro • 280MW Lofa-Mano • Hydro • 518MW Assal • Geothermal • 150MW Upper White Nile ¥ Hydro ¥ 5,000MW Tiboto • Hydro • 225MW NIGERIA ETHIOPIA SUDAN Taabo • Hydro • 210MW Mambilla • Hydro • 3,050MW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Solar Euromed ¥ Solar ¥ 2,000MW GHANA Makurdi • Hydro • 1,062MW (GERD) • Hydro • 6,000MW Merowe • Hydro • 1,250MW Akosombo • Hydro • 1,020MW Lokoja • Hydro • 1,052MW Gilgel Gibe III & IV • Hydro • 3,870MW Shereik • Hydro • 420MW Ada • Ocean • 1,000MW Kainji • Hydro • 760MW Beko Abo • Hydro • 2,100MW Red Sea coast • Wind • 180MW Mankpan • Solar • 1,000MW SENEGAL Corbetti • Geothermal • 1,000MW TANZANIA Bui I-IV • Hydro • 400MW Taiba Ndiaye • Wind • 215MW Tulu Moye • Geothermal • 800MW Stiegler’s Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MW GUINEA SIERRA LEONE Debre Berhan • Wind • 400MW Mnyera • Hydro • 700MW Souapiti • Hydro • 515MW Bumbuna I & II • Hydro • 202MW Tendaho Sugar Factory • Biomass • 40MW Mbeya I & II • Geothermal • 200MW Amaria • Hydro • 300MW Makeni • Biomass • 30MW KENYA Singida I & II • Wind • 200MW Emuruangogolak-Barrier complex ¥ UGANDA Geothermal ¥ 2,000MW Murchison Falls • Hydro • 642MW Bogoria-Silali I–IV • Geothermal • 2,000MW Ayago N & S • Hydro • 600MW Menengai I–II • Geothermal • 1,200MW Karuma • Hydro • 600MW Lake Turkana • Wind • 310MW Bujagali • Hydro • 250MW

Dal Red Sea coast CAPE MAURITANIA Kajbar VERDE Nouakchott 15 Dongola A Tulu Moye 46 9% MALI Merowe Shereik 25% BDebre-Berhan 291 NIGER SUDANUpper ERITREA CKaradobi 54% Méouane SENEGAL 4 1,647 Atbara 8 D Beko Abo 0.5 2% 48% & Setit 5% Taiba Ndiaye Kandadji CHAD EHalele- THE GAMBIA 0.1% Manantali Werabesa 0 Tekeze 0 Sambangalou BURKINA FASO Gambou Nyala Kenana Tana- Tendaho DJIBOUTI FCorbetti Beles 0 Mana 44 NIGERIA Roseires GUINEA-BISSAU 2 1 17% 7,287 B Assal 0 Noumbiel BENIN Kainji GERD GUINEA 3 0.5 37% C A Ayisha 368 Bumbuna Shiroro Mandaya D 61% 4 CÔTE Mankpan 0.4% Adama D’IVOIRE Jebba Makurdi Baro E SIERRA LEONE Makeni Nangbeto CENTRAL SOUTH ETHIOPIA 655 Bui Mambilla 1Kaléta 54 35% Lofa- Lokoja AFRICAN REPUBLIC SUDAN F 2,549 34% 9 Adjarala Tams SOMALIA 2 Grand Kinkon Mano 8 TOGO CAMEROON 0.2 0 84% 3Souapiti LIBERIA Ada Ikom 6% Gilgel Gibe Genale 0 5 81 910 Dimoli 4Amaria 5 6 GHANA Upper White Nile 7 1,582 35% 42% 5Tiboto 10% EQUAT. GUINEA 11 2 1 1Bubisa 49% 10 Chollet UGANDA 7 6 Louga, Soubré 128 39% 728 2 Lake Turkana 7 S Bananda Sendjé 3 SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Wanie- 84% 9 8 4 Tana River 3Turkwel 8Taabo 10 Edéa, Song Loulou Booué Rukula Mubuku 4.6 14% Grand 5 3Emuruangogolak- 9Akosombo 11 Grand Eweng, Song Mbengué GABON Poubara Karisimbi RWANDA 6 KENYA Barrier 325 DEMOCRATIC Ruzizi 88 60% 1,420 4Bogoria-Silali Central Africa 48% Sounda REPUBLIC OF Rusumo Falls 63% 5Menengai Selected renewables projects BURUNDI REPUBLIC OF CONGO Gorge CONGO 6Olkaria (commissioned and pipeline): 38 (BRAZZAVILLE) 2,561 Siguvyaye Singida 7 Ayago, Karuma, CAMEROON 228 Zongo 83% Murchison Falls Grand Eweng • Hydro • 1,000–2,000MW 99% 36% Inga TANZANIA 8 Bujagali, Kiira, Song Mbengué • Hydro • 930MW Kalengwe, 611 Mtera Lauça, Sombwe Nalubaale DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 36%Mbeya Stiegler’s Gorge Grand Inga (incl. Inga III) • Hydro • up to 44GW Nhangue 9Kampala Cambambe Nzilo Mambilima Mnyera Inga I & II • Hydro • 1,775MW Caculo Cabaça COMOROS Capanda Wanie-Rukula • Hydro • 688MW MALAWI Rumakali, 0.1 SEYCHELLES Ruzizi I-IV • Hydro • 509MW Cafula Songwe ANGOLA Mumbotuta 300 0.4% 7 REPUBLIC OF CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE) 1,118 ZAMBIA 93% 10% Sounda Gorge • Hydro • 1,000MW Mayotte Gove 45% 2,452 Cahora (Fr.) GABON Tombua 87% Mpata Bassa Nkula Booué • Hydro • 410MW Lower Kafue Gorge Mphanda Nkuwa, Betsiboka River Baynes Batoka Gorge, Kariba Boroma Devil’s Gorge Lupata Ruacana Munyati Southern Africa ZIMBABWE MOZAMBIQUE Ikopa River MAURITIUS Selected renewables and nuclear projects (commissioned and pipeline): 2,245 Maun 753 Mania River 171 ANGOLA Updraft 39% 79% 26% Lauça • Hydro • 2,120MW REIPPP (Renewable Energy Independent tower Bulawayo, Gwanda MADAGASCAR Orapa 126 Caculo Cabaça • Hydro • 1,560MW Power Producer Procurement) Programme, Selebi-Phikwe Réunion (Fr.) Capanda • Biomass • 355MW Rounds 1-4 ¥ Various ¥ 6,298MW NAMIBIA Morupule 36% Befanova LESOTHO Koeberg • Nuclear • 1,800MW 431 BOTSWANA Kobong • Pumped storage • 1,200MW Ingula • Pumped storage • 1,332MW 73% 0 Drakensberg • Pumped storage • 1,000MW MADAGASCAR Ngwempisi SWAZILAND Befanova • Hydro • 700MW TANZANIA 183 95% Stiegler’s Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MW Lüderitz Upington Drakensberg PS MOZAMBIQUE Kathu Ingula PS Major renewable and Cahora Bassa • Hydro • 2,075MW ZAMBIA & Karashoek area area Felixton nuclear projects: Commissioned Mphanda Nkuwa • Hydro • 1,500MW Lower Kafue Gorge • Hydro • 1,550MW Pofadder area Vanderkloof Pipeline Cahora Bassa Norte • Hydro 1,245MW Kariba North Bank • Hydro • 1,080MW Kotulo Tsatsi Kobong PS Commissioned ZAMBIA/ZIMBABWE Prieska area LESOTHO Pipeline NAMIBIA Gariep Ruacana • Hydro • 424MW Batoka Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MW De Aar area 145 Baynes • Hydro • 400MW Devil’s Gorge • Hydro • 1,200MW SOUTH AFRICA 100% Geothermal Saldanha area 4,702 Cookhouse area RÉUNION ZIMBABWE Koeberg 10% Hydroelectric Wave power under development Bulawayo, Gwanda, Munyati • Duynefontein Port Elizabeth area Solar • 100MW each (including pumped Waste-to- SOUTH AFRICA Palmiet PS Thyspunt Thyspunt or Duynefontein • Nuclear • Kariba South Bank • Hydro • 1,050MW storage: PS) power/biomass up to 9,600MW 00 Total renewable generation capacity, 2015 (MW) Wind Nuclear 00% As percentage of total generation capacity Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics African Energy Atlas Solar Ocean power

AEEP | 39 Energy Efficiency

Energy efficiency (EE) is a core component of measures for level. One indicator example could be energy consumption reducing carbon emissions and for raising economic per unit of appliance. performance by the ensuring scarce resources are not In this report – for reasons of data availability and wasted. However, across Africa the benefits of EE are often consistency with earlier reporting – final energy overlooked, or policies are poorly implemented, even consumption per GDP at purchase power parity has been though well-designed EE programmes can reduce costs for chosen as the main indicator. Data is drawn from the households and enterprises. Even in one of the most SE4All Global Tracking Framework. proactive countries, Morocco, CGEM employers association president Miriem Bensalah Chaqroun observed in April For the electricity sector, network losses are a measure of 2016 that “the level of implementation of planned energy an efficient sector in good condition. Reducing losses efficiency investments hasn’t reached 5%”. through transmission and distribution reduces the need for generation, while at the same time improving the Efficiency is difficult to quantify It manifests itself in quality of supply by increasing the availability of power different ways – in better appliances, new industrial and stability of the grid. processes, changes in economic structure and an effective electricity supply industry . Initiatives to improve EE can AEEP workstream take many forms, from improved insulation to regulations. The AEEP established an Energy Efficiency Workstream As a result, there are a number of different ways to with the aim of supporting stakeholders in the private measure EE, each of which has deficiencies. With proxies sector, academia and civil society. It has been preparing a for EE, such as total primary or total final energy intensity, draft strategic plan to 2017, with its first workshop to be data is relatively easy to retrieve, but difficult to interpret. held in May 2016. Work is ongoing to identify stakeholders These potentially reflect a wide range of determining to map EE initiatives and strategies, which will be used to factors, such as climate (heating and cooling needs), develop a matrix containing clear recommendations to economic structure (in terms of sectors), the size of a promote energy efficiency in an African context. country (with regard to transport needs), the exchange rate, electrification rate or extent of biomass usage. As the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report observed, energy EE Laws and Regulations intensity can be at least as much an indicator of national economic performance, since it captures structural To complement the quantitative monitoring of energy changes and fluctuations in an economy at least as much efficiency data, a table was compiled for the 2014 AEEP Status Report that showed the extent of legal and as any changes in EE. Therefore, a low level of energy institutional infrastructure across the continent. The intensity does not necessarily mean high efficiency. This is Energy Efficiency Laws table (on Status Report pages 56 nicely demonstrated by an example taken from the and 57) – and associated collection of relevant International Energy Agency – of a small, service-based legislation and regulations – could be updated as a country with a mild climate that would certainly have a future workstream, to provide an overview of the extent much lower intensity than a large industry-based country of policy coverage in each of the 55 countries covered, in a very cold climate, even if energy is more efficiently and to monitor progress in introducing and consumed in the latter country than in the first. implementing legislation to help implement policy, Sectoral energy intensity, as shown in the table on page create or reinforce institutions that regulate energy 40, provides somewhat more informational value since it efficiency measures, provide financial incentives and allows an initial assessment of trends in energy oversee projects. consumption and comparisons across countries. Then Work is under way to support the regulatory framework there are disaggregated indicators, such as sub-sectoral or and enabling environment for improving energy end-use indicators within various sectors, such as efficiency, with support from the EU’s Technical residential, services, industry, or transport (passenger and Assistance Facility (TAF) for the SE4All Initiative and freight). Process or appliance indicators capture even more other European instruments. disaggregate information at the unit energy consumption

40 | AEEP Energy Ef fi ciency

Energy intensity

past three years points to a stagnation of this trend, too. 9 % 8 7.90 The data is surprisingly consistent across regions, aside from Southern Africa. Final energy intensity in the average 7 6.33 Average energy North African country was 6.4MJ/$ PPP in 2012, in East 6 5.52 (based on 2000–12 trend) intensity of Africa it was 5.4MJ/$ PPP, in West Africa 5.5MJ/$ PPP and 5 final energy 4.83 (based on 2010–12 trend) Central Africa 4.8MJ/$ PPP. The figure in Southern Africa 4 projections was 9.6MJ/$ PPP, or 10.2MJ/$ PPP without South Africa. 3 US$ 2011 purchasing 200002 04 06 08 10 12 20 power parity This suggests caution is required when working with the energy intensity target. The data used from the World Bank SE4All database It is clear that less industrialised regions of Africa have a suggest the African continent has seen a decrease in tendency to have lower energy intensity, so it is possible average final energy intensity of 20% (or an average 2.9% that the lower intensity may be down to a much smaller per year) from 7.9MJ at 2011 US dollar ($) purchasing industrial base. However, a closer inspection of the figures power parity (PPP) to 6.3MJ/$ PPP over the period 2000 to shows that many of the poorest countries such as the 2012. This compares with the more modest decrease of 6% Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Liberia have (or average 1.8% per annum) from 6.7MJ/$ PPP to 6.3MJ/$ very high energy intensity. While it is possible that the PPP between 2010 and 2012. The data thus shows that a limited industrial base in these countries is energy seemingly positive trend – given all data and conceptual inefficient, it should also be remembered that an qualifications – seems to have slowed down considerably. unusually low GDP could result in a high energy intensity In comparison, average primary energy intensity for Africa figure. (encompassing data from 53 African countries) has The regional breakdown implies that energy intensity decreased from 10.4MJ/$ PPP in 2000 to 8.9MJ/$ PPP in measures might most usefully be targeted at the 2012 (average annual rate of 1.3%) – or by an average 2% industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa. per year between 2010 and 2012 (9.2MJ/$ PPP in 2010). The scale of industry in these countries means that the Average energy intensity by sector – as measured by the potential energy efficiency savings are substantially larger. ratio between energy consumption in the respective sector Another aspect of the way energy intensity is measured – and the sector value-added at purchasing power parity (or energy use divided by GDP – is that the figure may fall the number of households for the residential sector) – because the industrial base is shrinking. For example, it is seems to have decreased in almost all sectors – except for possible that energy intensity may decline in line with the agriculture – over the past 12 years. However, data for the fall in mining output across the continent, due to low

Average energy intensity of final energy, 2000Ð12 10 10 MJ/$ MJ/S 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.6 8 7.4 7.5 7.3 8 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.3 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework US$ 2011 purchasing power parity

AEEP | 41 Energy Ef fi ciency

commodity prices, for example. In this case there would be (Unido), and even this tiny share of global production is no energy efficiency benefit or the reduction might only heavily concentrated in the few industrialised countries. be temporary. Africa only commands roughly 1.5% of the This suggests that energy intensity trends over the next world’s total manufacturing output, according to the decade are likely to mirror more closely trends in economic United Nations Industrial Development Organisation composition, rather than energy efficiency.

Energy intensity level of final energy, 2012

TUNISIA 2.6

MOROCCO 2.6 ALGERIA 2.4 LIBYA 2.9 EGYPT 2.4

MAURITANIA CAPE VERDE 1.9 3.6 NIGER MALI 4.6 SUDAN ERITREA SENEGAL 2.5 CHAD 3.6 3.0 3.8 2.5 THE GAMBIA 3.9 BURKINA FASO DJIBOUTI 5.4 2.5 GUINEA-BISSAU 12.6 BENIN GUINEA 10.0 GHANA 8.5 NIGERIA ETHIOPIA CÔTE CENTRAL SIERRA LEONE 5.6 3.1 5.4 SOUTH 13.8 D’IVOIRE AFRICAN REP. SUDAN 5.3 4.0 SOMALIA LIBERIA CAMEROON na TOGO 4.6 31.7 21.9 9.5 UGANDA SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE 3.4 8.3 KENYA GABON RWANDA 6.0 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 0.5 2.6 3.4 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI REP. OF CONGO CONGO 12.2 SEYCHELLES 2.6 (BRAZZAVILLE) 18.3 TANZANIA 2.1 10.4 COMOROS 3.1 15.0+ MJ/$ ANGOLA MALAWI 3.1 ZAMBIA 5.4 10.0 – 14.9 MJ/$ 6.9

6.0 – 9.9 MJ/$ MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE 12.8 15.9 MADAGASCAR 3.0 – 5.9 MJ/$ MAURITIUS 3.2 NAMIBIA 3.9 3.2 BOTSWANA Less than 3 MJ/$ 2.9 No data available SWAZILAND 4.7 Figures in red indicate a deterioration SOUTH LESOTHO in the situation since 2010 AFRICA 9.7 4.4 US$ 2011 purchasing power parity Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework

Energy intensity projections

Energy intensity by sector* Energy intensity CAGR CAGR Country coverage 2000-2012 2010-2012 2000 2010 2012

Residential (GJ/Household) 46.2 42.8 42.9 -0.6% 0.1% 52

Transport 19.2 12.2 12.0 -3.9% -0.9% 49

Industry 4.2 3.4 3.4 -1.8% -0.1% 46

Agriculture 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.4% 0.6% 22

Services 0.8 0.5 0.5 -3.3% 2.3% 30

* All sectors MJ/$ at 2011 purchasing power parity. Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework.

42 | AEEP Energy Ef fi ciency

Network losses

14 Average network losses for Africa exhibit a quite stable trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and 2012 % 13.06 13 12.67 12.64 (based on 2000–12 trend) (from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change between 2010 and 2012. This tendency is similar when comparing 12 12.27 (based on 2010–12 trend) SE4All/Global Tracking Framework data with statistics Average transmission provided by the US Energy Information Administration 11 and distribution losses (EIA), even when accounting for total electricity output projections 10 plus electricity imports as the denominator. 200002 04 06 08 10 12 20 % of total electricity output If African average T&D losses are measured as the average of the percentage losses per country for each year of the Electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are same sample, this results in losses of 21.5% for 2000, an important aspect of supply side efficiency that 21.4% for 2010, and 26% for 2012. The 2012 increase was continue to be a challenge in many African countries. largely due to Botswana, which as a net electricity Compared to Europe or the US, where average network importer displays losses as high as 158%; this makes the losses of 7% can be assumed, many African countries need link between generation and distribution appear to cope with sometimes sizable quantities of power lost implausible, but as mentioned above, the overall trend for between generation locations and the end-user. Africa remains broadly the same even if electricity imports Inadequate distribution infrastructure and damaged are accounted for. power lines are factors that can account for this It should be pointed out that the numbers in the World phenomenon. Other factors include technical as well as Bank/SE4All database seem to have changed significantly non-technical losses arising from unmetered, unbilled and in some instances since the last AEEP Status Report , which unpaid electricity, including theft. However, the was published in 2014 and used a dataset that concluded International Energy Agency (IEA) has established that the in 2010. Further, the data show large fluctuations in T&D location of primary energy resources (such as hydro-lakes losses year-on-year for some countries. This could be due and coal seams) and large loads (cities and industries) can to varying electricity imports. Alternatively, the validity of have an even more dominant effect on aggregate network the data must be questioned. losses. These indicators cannot be properly accounted for Looking at average regional network losses, all regions without detailed analysis. have remained at more or less similar levels over time, For the purposes of this report, annual average T&D losses except for West Africa which has improved its T&D losses have been calculated as their sum in GWh for all countries by more than 20 percentage points from 36.6% in 2000 to for which data was available, divided by the sum of total 15.9% in 2012. The data suggest that, in West Africa, electricity output in GWh for the same sample countries. Nigeria has made notable improvements, from 51% of

Average transmission and distribution losses, 2000Ð12 15 15 13.5 13.1 13.0 12.5 12.7 12.7 % 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.2 % 11.5 11.8 11.8

10 10

5 5

0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework % of total electricity output

AEEP | 43 Energy Ef fi ciency

losses in 2000 to 23% in 2010 and 12% in 2012. Senegal’s in its 2015 Power in Africa report, that improvements in network losses also fell, from 43% in 2000 to 19% in 2012. generation capacities had not been accompanied by an Southern Africa – excluding the Republic of South Africa adequate build-up of distribution infrastructure. (RSA) – experienced considerable deterioration between The data show that Central Africa displays a very low level 2000 and 2010. Since then, the situation has stabilised at of network losses. One apparent reason for this is that in about 18.6% of T&D losses. In Southern Africa, apart from the special case of Botswana, Zambia’s losses worsened economies like Democratic Republic of Congo – with very quite significantly from 3% in 2000 to 24% in 2010 and low levels of access – generation capacity is often built for 2012. The fact that Zambian generation rose by about 50% specific end-users, notably extractive industries, who do in the same timeframe, led consultancy KPMG to conclude, not require extensive distribution infrastructure.

Transmission and distribution losses, 2012

TUNISIA 16.0

MOROCCO 13.4 ALGERIA 20.5 LIBYA 13.1 EGYPT 11.1

MAURITANIA CAPE VERDE na na NIGER MALI na SUDAN ERITREA SENEGAL na CHAD 19.0 16.7 19.4 na THE GAMBIA na BURKINA FASO DJIBOUTI na na GUINEA-BISSAU na BENIN GUINEA na GHANA na NIGERIA ETHIOPIA CÔTE CENTRAL SIERRA LEONE na 22.0 11.7 SOUTH 14.9 D’IVOIRE AFRICAN REP. SUDAN 19.6 na SOMALIA LIBERIA CAMEROON na TOGO 12.6 na na 93.0 UGANDA SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE na na KENYA GABON RWANDA 19.0 EQUATORIAL GUINEA na 21.9 na DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI REP. OF CONGO CONGO na SEYCHELLES na (BRAZZAVILLE) 7.8 TANZANIA 45.9 18.1 COMOROS na % of gross electricity production: ANGOLA MALAWI 11.9 ZAMBIA na 80.0% + 24.3

40.0 – 79.9% MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE 15.1 20.0 – 39.9% 16.2 MADAGASCAR MAURITIUS na NAMIBIA na 10.0 – 19.9% 26.2 BOTSWANA 158.1 Less than 10% SWAZILAND No data available na

SOUTH LESOTHO Figures in red indicate a deterioration AFRICA na 9.1 in the situation since 2010 Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework

Average network losses (%)

North Africa West Africa East Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Southern Africa (minus RSA)

2000 14.6 36.6 18.9 13.2 9.0 11.5

2010 12.6 22.8 16.7 12.3 10.9 18.7

2020 13.6 15.9 17.9 14.1 10.5 18.6

44 | AEEP African and European Contributions

(ICA), which is managed by the AfDB in Abidjan. This 10 Funding to the useful tool has, over several years, tracked commitments bn euros African energy sector: 8 made by the European Investment Bank (EIB), European 3.60 from EU Commission (EC), France, Germany and the UK. It has been 2.77 6 working to expand its coverage, with significant success, and this data is used to inform this report. 4 1.46 5.17 5.64 from Africa African national government budget 2 3.32 allocations 0 2012 2013 2014 The ICA has also been expanding its coverage and analysis of infrastructure spending in African government budgets.

Available data suggests that African national European Union institutions, member states and their governments’ budget allocations, combined with corporate and individual citizens play a very important role commitments made directly or indirectly through the in helping to develop Africa’s energy infrastructures and AfDB and WBG by EU member states appear to be on a capabilities, but – as the 2014 Status Report pointed out – steep, upward trend. This is shown in data produced for measuring the extent of that role remains problematic the ICA and calculations made by the AEEP Secretariat. given the relative lack of data. Many of the shortfalls recorded then by the AEEP Secretariat and its consultants While the majority of African countries allocated most of persist, for example showing that groups of development their infrastructure capital spending to the transport finance institutions (DFIs) do not yet collate data on their sector, some have prioritised the energy sector. These financing flows and outcomes. There are also issues in include Algeria, Angola, Kenya and Tanzania, each of which measuring contributions that pass via institutions such as in 2014 allocated more than $500m to energy through the World Bank Group (WBG) and African Development their annual budgets. Bank (AfDB) Group, both of which have a substantial According to data published by 34 African governments, European shareholding and, thus, a stake in their high state funds of at least €5bn were committed to capital levels of support for African energy projects. expenditure on energy projects in 2013 and 2014; this was The AEEP Power Projects Database cannot yet produce rather more than the €3bn committed in 2012. accurate numbers for each party’s contributions to Given the differences in data availability on national financing developments. Much more work is needed to budget allocations, the table on page 47 shows a control identify each of the financial instruments that feed into group of 21 African countries that have reported budget the several thousand projects recorded. However, while a allocations on a consistent like-for-like basis for the three daunting information-gathering challenge which would years to 2014. While some countries report broadly even require very considerable resources, there is no technical allocations, there are some big fluctuations, as seen in the reason why this should not be possible. data captured for Angola, Ghana, Senegal, South Sudan Neither is there a complete record of European and Togo. It appears encouraging that the total control commitments to the African energy sector. The most group allocations rose sharply after 2012, but data can be complete time series of commitments by bodies within deceptive, as this increase is almost entirely due to the EU is kept by the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa Angola’s larger allocations.

AEEP | 45 African Contribution

African national governmentÕs budget allocations mechanisms, such as the AfDB’s $1bn loan commitment to the energy sector, per capita average 2012Ð14 in 2014 for the Angola Power Sector Reform Support Larger allocations: Programme, or the impact of investment, such as the 6 20 .2 9 €6.9bn committed by several funders in 2010 to the 1 1 Eskom Investment Support Project. Absolute national budget allocations lack meaning given euros 6 the different sizes of the economies involved. In this .7 6 1 context, the amount of spending per capita may be a more relevant measure. 16 4 .9 4 Analysis of average national budget allocations per 1 capita over the three years to 2014 show some very wide variations. This is based on initial work in this area by the AEEP’s consultants, working with data from national

5 finance ministries and central banks. Angola stands out .9 1 12 1 as having by far the largest allocations to energy per capita (at around €95/head). Botswana is ranked second in this analysis (at €40/head), substantially ahead of third- and fourth-ranked Cape Verde (€16 /head) and Kenya (€14). These rankings should not be considered true guides to a country’s commitment or overall spending on African energy infrastructure, which may be 8 mainly made by a state utility or other subnational body.

6 .2 7 6 .7 Data considerations 5 2 Data for national budget allocations to Africa’s energy sector in 2014 is based on analysis of 42 countries that

9 published information on infrastructure capital spending 4 .5 3 in their budgets over a three-year period to 2014. This group – comprising 34 countries in 2014, 23 in 2013 and 27 in 2012 – published clearly identifiable allocations to energy infrastructure capital expenditure. Excluded from the data used for AEEP purposes are allocations that may include revenue spending, elements aimed at oil or gas 0 a a e a e a a infrastructure that fall beyond the type of infrastructure l n d y ir n i o a r n o a ib g e e v h n w V K ’I m contemplated in the AEEP context, or allocations to A ts e d G a o p N B a te C ô multi-sector projects. Smaller allocations: C 2 This implies data presented here may be understated. .0 2 0 2 .6 4 Neither can a degree of double-counting be excluded, 1 .4 1 2 5 euros .0 9 where national budgets include spending funded by DFIs 1 . 1 0 9 4 or some other external source. The extent of double- 0 1 0 . .0 .0 0 0 0 0 counting is difficult to assess and appears to vary greatly. l t i r - a ia d e a ia a u g r yp n u c p e a Where budgets specify amounts of internal and external e e g u iq s o in ss n ig E r b a i u i e N u g th B S B m a E G funding for an allocation, capital expenditure on energy za d o a M M in the Mozambican and Ugandan budgets was respectively 78% and 73% internally funded, whereas Ethiopia’s budgets showed 74% was externally financed. Severe peaks and troughs in the control group data are similar to those found in external funders’ contributions to Subnational spending the African energy sector. There are many reasons for One marked trend is towards increased subnational these fluctuations, which include the project cycles of the spending in Africa, by local governments, state utilities, largest schemes. Data can be skewed by a higher than regional and country-based development and usual injection of DFI funding into budget support infrastructure banks. However, these sources of funding

46 | AEEP African Contribution

have yet to be accurately identified and screened for commitments and disbursements from this burgeoning double-counting before they can be added to the data that cohort of existing and potential funding sources. monitors and assesses what resources are being committed to the energy sector. Emerging private sources African public sector funds flow into the energy sector Privately sourced financing for energy infrastructure is from several sources. National government budget emerging across Africa – and in other regions such as the allocations are a major source, but the role of subnational Gulf states – as predicted by the 2014 Status Report (page funding should not be underestimated. Local or municipal 59), which observed that a trend towards parastatal, government, or state utilities, are increasingly positioning capital markets and other private sector sources of themselves to deploy internally generated funds or funding was emerging. A key focus for AEEP stakeholders leverage finance from financial markets (as has been is to intensify the ‘blending’ of public and private finance. established previously in other emerging regions such as Including more representatives of this trend among the Eastern Europe and Latin America). In some of Africa’s AEEP’s stakeholder community, and monitoring this largest economies – including Egypt, Republic of South important development are potential focal points for Africa (RSA), Nigeria and Morocco – there is a very substantial emphasis on subnational financing. African National Government Budget Allocations In its 2014 budget, the City of Johannesburg, allocated for Energy Infrastructure ($m) €239m to infrastructure as defined by the ICA (transport, water, energy and information and communications Country 2012 2013 2014 technology, or ICT); this was equivalent to 45% of its capital expenditure. Johannesburg expected to raise Angola 627.958 2,691.854 2,270.628 €294m of its budget through internally generated taxes Botswana 124.529 77.881 55.413 and service charges. In 2013, the Lagos State Government Burundi Bond–Series 2 raised €422m for infrastructure. 7.300 11.994 10.565 Cape Verde 11.822 5.601 9.004 Morocco’s advanced regionalisation programme embraces the concept of subnational government financing and Cote d'Ivoire 142.761 167.389 272.350 mechanisms for infrastructure funding, through structures Egypt 130.026 85.588 124.886 such as the Fonds d’Equipement Communal (FEC), which provides loans for specific investment projects and lines of Ethiopia 0.524 0.678 1.379 credit for financing longer-term development Ghana na 40.507 160.867 programmes. FEC is financed through the local financial market notably through credit lines, bond loans and Guinea Bissau 0.022 0.138 0.006 deposit certificates. Kenya 559.459 695.225 670.584 African regional development banks are also ploughing Madagascar 0.952 3.057 2.118 funds into the energy sector and leveraging financial markets. Participants in the Lake Turkana Wind Project Mozambique 18.791 13.403 23.278 financing included the East African Development Bank and Namibia 7.824 4.849 7.871 PTA Bank, which concluded a milestone in November 2014 with a syndicated loan with a target of $200m; the facility Nigeria 338.506 353.033 283.453 closed at $320m, 1.6 times oversubscribed. Senegal 1.036 27.347 27.419

Other African sources of public sector finance include the South Africa 378.346 334.037 248.939 participation of the Central Bank of Nigeria in Lagos-based infrastructure investor the African Finance Corporation South Sudan 7.708 0.222 0.470 along with other African (mainly Nigerian) financial Tanzania 157.643 205.586 411.946 institutions and corporate investors. Senegal’s infrastructure finance system is now operated through the Togo 6.342 1.559 11.372 newly established Fonds Souverain d’Investissements Uganda 318.425 367.315 374.751 Stratégiques (Fonsis). Zimbabwe 40.864 15.746 13.646 There is considerable scope for international institutions Total 2,880.840 5,103.008 4,980.946 to extend the charting, tracking and analysis of

AEEP | 47 European Contribution

future activity by the Partnership, as African infrastructure EU member statesÕ commitments to the financing becomes established as an asset class, and local African energy sector, 2010Ð16 financial markets become deeper, allowing more African 6,000 citizens and foreign funds to invest. Total: 5,595 m 2,182 European contributions to funding euros African energy projects 5,000 The 28 EU Member States make substantial direct commitments to Africa’s energy sector, on average over the five years to 2014 providing €1.7bn annually in Indirect funding via WBG concessional and non-concessional financing. Additionally, Indirect funding via AfDB the EU has a strong and wide-ranging partnership with the WBG and AfDB, as do a range of EU institutions, 4,000 Direct funding including the EC, European Council, European Parliament 3,596 and EIB. 351 The Member States are major shareholders and partners in 624 282 the work of the WBG, accounting for nearly one-third of 3,000 shares in the International Bank for Reconstruction and 2,765 2,963 Development (IBRD) and half of contributions to the soft- 2,789 623 lending International Development Association (IDA).

EU institutions and member states provided 52.9% of 516 paid-in contributions to the IBRD from 2006 to February 2,000 2015. If this percentage is taken as being indicative of the percentage Europeans have indirectly contributed to the 1,563 1,626 WBG’s African energy commitments, then their 257 1,464 542 contribution, on average over the five years to 2014, has 319 been an annual €791m. 1,000 987 European contributions to the AfDB are also substantial. 714 EU Member States contributed 59.8% of pledges to the twelfth and thirteenth replenishments of the soft-lending African Development Fund, which provides the substantial amount of funds administered by the bank in the period 208 0 2011-16. If this percentage is applied to the AfDB’s 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 commitments to the African energy sector, then member States average support peaked in the AEEP baseline year states have contributed, on average in the period 2010-14, 2010, at around €5.5bn. This was a very exceptional year an annual €491m. that included several billion euro-plus commitments in Based on these calculations, direct AfDB and WBG North and East Africa and Mozambique, including the funding, and ‘indirect’ funding based on EU Member €10.4bn Eskom Investment Support Project.

48 | AEEP Targets to 2020 and beyond

This Status Report Update gives strong pointers to the that some targets could be reached already, while many – progress and problems experienced in meeting the Africa- but not all – will be exceeded by 2020. EU Energy Partnership’s 2020 Political Targets. Some Some AEEP stakeholders argue that it may be appropriate developments have been exceptional since the Partnership to ask if the timeframe for the Political Targets should be was created – for example, the amount of solar capacity extended. There are two main reasons for this. 2020 is fast that has been installed, which is already much greater approaching, and a decision to extend the deadline would than envisaged when the AEEP was created at the Lisbon allow for more rational planning of research and projects, summit in 2007. The scale of international concern about for example allowing the AEEP Monitoring Tool databases the need to seriously tackle energy poverty in Africa is to incorporate project projections that go beyond the much greater than when African and European leaders current cut-off. A new target date would enable a wider first highlighted this global-scale problem. coordination of programmes into the next decade. The AEEP has been a pioneer in proposing policy directions It should also be considered that a number of more recent, and targets to overcome energy poverty, improve efficiency and underpin domestic and cross-border energy complementary initiatives – including SE4All, which has security in Africa and Europe. Now approaching its second strong support from the African Union and European decade, the AEEP has been instrumental in shaping the Commission, and lately the African Renewable Energy approach of global initiatives like the United Nations-led Initiative – have taken 2030 as their target date. So have Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which have understood the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals the need to collect and collate more accurate data that can (SDGs), which are intended as a baseline for harmonising inform the campaign to end energy poverty. global action to tackle poverty, and will have an impact on energy, climate change mitigation and related sectors. Through initiatives such as operationalising the AEEP Monitoring Tool – and its Africa Power Project Database, Harmonising efforts which now contains information on more than 3,250 Efforts to harmonise the growing number of international operating and planned generation plants, plus electricity African energy-focused initiatives – a process in which the interconnections and other data – the Partnership has AEEP is playing a leading role – suggest that more should shown a steely commitment to establishing a strong empirical basis for understanding trends and tackling be done to avoid duplicating effort by encouraging problems. In this approach, the Partnership – piloted by cooperation in data-gathering and policy-making. the AEEP Secretariat, as mandated by its member While the AEEP Monitoring Tool has established a niche in governments and co-chairs – has shown a refreshing tracking generation projects, the AEEP Secretariat has capacity to be critical about data and policy. AEEP adopted data gathered in the SE4All Global Tracking stakeholders generally agree that only by encouraging Framework for access and efficiency indicators. The SE4All critical dialogue can Africa and Europe move forward. database contains estimates of access to electricity and The Lisbon 2020 Political Targets set the initial phase of non-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensity and electricity work, providing goals that Africa and Europe should aspire transmission and distribution losses for all but a handful to meet, and mandating the new Partnership to monitor of African countries. AEEP stakeholders are already those benchmarks. This Status Report Update continues working with SE4All and the GTF process. that work in a spirit that typifies the AEEP – intended as a In the questioning spirit that typifies the AEEP, basis for further discussion, which is likely to focus on stakeholders have long discussed whether these – and several areas. other – indicators are appropriate measures for the partnership to be working with. Should, for example, Extending the targets energy industries’ contribution to create jobs or other Following nearly a decade of growth in the African energy critical social issues be adopted as benchmarks? Such has industries, it is relevant to ask whether the AEEP’s political been the AEEP’s role in providing critical leadership in its targets are still appropriate, both numerically and core areas of interest, that such questions are not only chronologically. The AEEP Power Project Database suggests appropriate, but should be asked.

AEEP | 49 Imprint

Published by Design & Layout Cross-border Information European Union Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF) Photos Front cover – KfW/photothek.net; Page 9 – KfW/Ausloeser Photographie; Page 11 – KfW/Ausloeser Photographie; Page 16 – KfW/photothek.net; Page 18 – Jon Marks; Page 28 – KfW/photothek.net; Page 22 – iStock photo; Page c/o Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale 23 – iStock photo; Page 35 – KfW/JG Lopata; Page 46 – Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH iStock photo; Back cover – KfW/Rendel Freude

Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5, The Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF) is an 65760 Eschborn, instrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI). It is currently Germany funded and receives contribution from Austria, the www.euei-pdf.org/aeep European Commission, Finland, Italy, Germany, the [email protected] Netherlands and Sweden. The EUEI PDF acts as the Eschborn, May 2016 Secretariat of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership. Editors David Otieno and Hadley Taylor (AEEP Secretariat) Report prepared by Jon Marks (lead author), David Burles (maps and graphics) The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one of Mark Ford, Dan Marks, David Slater the initial eight partnerships under the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for cooperation between the two continents. The African Union Commission, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt, the European Cross-border Information, Commission, Germany, Italy are the Steering Group www.crossborderinformation.com members providing political guidance to the Partnership.

AEEP Steering Group

50 | AEEP

The Affrriica--EU Enerrgy Parrttnerrshiip ((AEEP)) consttiittuttes one off The AEEP’’s overrallll objjecttiive iis tto iimncprreoavse athcce ess to tthe iiniittiiall eiightt parrttnerrshiips crreatted underr tthe JJoiintt reeflfieacbtliev,e sneecsusr oef, aeffordtsa btole s eacnudr esu rsetlaiainbaleb laen edn seursgty ainable Affrriica--EU Sttrrattegy ((JJAES)),, a llong--tterrm ffrrameworrk fforr co-- seenrevrigceys s feorrv ibcoetsh a cnodn etixnteentds ,t hweiitrh a tchce sasi mon o bf oatch hieving the operrattiion bettween tthe ttwo conttiinentts.. Affrriica and Eurrope Mcoinllteinneniutms, wDeitvhe tlohpem aiemn to Gf oaachlsi einv iAnfgr itchae. TShuest AaEinEaPb’s le worrk ttogettherr tthrrough tthe AEEP tto devellop a sharred eDfefovertlso pamree fnotc uGsoeadl so inn mAfereictain. gT hae s eArEiEePs ’os fe cfofonrctrse atere, viisiion,, common polliicy apprroaches and acttiions.. rfeoaculisteidc aond m veiseitbinleg t a rsgeerties sb oyf 2 c0o2n0c,r eatse a, grereaelidst bicy a tnhde Pvaisritbnler tsahrigpe’st sF ibrsyt 2 H0i2g0h, Laesv aegl rMeede tbinyg t,h hee Plda ritnn Verieshninpa’s on Siix Stteerriing Grroup memberrs – who now comprriise tthe 1Fi4r–st1 H5 iSgehp Ltevmebl eMr e2e0t1in0g, ,a hnedl d einve Sleopteedm tbheror u2g0h 10, and Affrriican Uniion Commiissiion,, tthe Common Marrkett fforr sduebvseeloqpuedn tt harcotiuognhs saunbds meqeueetnintg asc stionnces. a nd meetings. Eastterrn and Souttherrn Affrriica ((COMESA)) Secrrettarriiatt,, Egyptt,, tthe Eurropean Commiissiion,, Gerrmany and IIttally – prroviide Thiis rreporrtt’’s aiim iis tto prroviide an updatte off tthe AEEP’’s polliittiicall guiidance tto tthe Parrttnerrshiip.. The AEEP Secrrettarriiatt benchmarrks and tto moniittorr prrogrress iin achiieviing tthe iis hostted by tthe Parrttnerrshiip Diiallogue Faciilliitty ((EUEII PDF)),, Parrttnerrshiip’’s goalls,, whiille allso poiinttiing tto diirrecttiions fforr whiich iis an iinsttrrumentt off tthe EU Enerrgy IIniittiiattiive ((EUEII)).. conttiinued acttiion..