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Mihin Suuntaan Mennään Vuokra-Asuntomarkkinoilla?

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Mihin Suuntaan Mennään Vuokra-Asuntomarkkinoilla? Mihin suuntaan mennään vuokra-asuntomarkkinoilla? SIJOITUS INVEST 29.-30.11.2017 Tuomas Viljamaa Suomen Vuokranantajat ry. Koko Suomi data Vuokraovi.com yksityisilmoittajat neliövuokra vuosimuutos 01-06/2017 14,7 0,1 % 01-06/2016 14,7 yritysilmoittajat neliövuokra vuosimuutos 01-06/2017 15,3 4,3 % 01-06/2016 14,7 kaikki vapaarahoitteiset neliövuokra vuosimuutos 01-06/2017 15,3 4,0 % 01-06/2016 14,7 Asuntosijoittamisen alueelliset tuotot 2017-2021 PTT ja Suomen Vuokranantajat Vuokratuoton laskeminen • Vuokratuotto ennen veroja lasketaan tässä tapauksessa näin: € 2 € 2 × 12 % = × 100 € 2 + € 2 + € 2 ⁄ − ⁄ 푀 ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ • Vuokratuotto lasketaan sitoutuneen pääoman sen hetkiselle markkina-arvolle. • Asunto hankitaan ilman lainaa ja varainsiirtovero asunto-osakkeista on 2 prosenttia. • Remonttivaraksi on oletettu PKS 700 €/m2, muut suuret kaupungit 500 €/m2, muu Suomi 400 €/m2. 5 Vuokratuotto ennen veroja 2017-2021, yksiöt Kajaani Pori Rauma Kotka Mikkeli Jyväskylä Kouvola Kehyskunnat Rovaniemi Kuopio Seinäjoki Kokkola Keskiarvo Lahti Vaasa Oulu Joensuu Tampere Turku Hämeenlinna Lappeenranta Vantaa Espoo-Kauniainen Porvoo Helsinki 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% vuosikasvu, keskimäärin 6 Arvonnousu 2017-2021, yksiöt Helsinki Kokkola Vaasa Espoo-Kauniainen Turku Tampere Vantaa Jyväskylä Kuopio Keskiarvo Lahti Seinäjoki Kehyskunnat Joensuu Hämeenlinna Porvoo Pori Mikkeli Rovaniemi Lappeenranta Kotka Kajaani Oulu Rauma Kouvola 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% vuosikasvu, keskimäärin 7 Keskimääräinen kokonaistuotto 2017-2021, yksiöt Kokkola Vaasa Helsinki Jyväskylä Espoo-Kauniainen Tampere Turku Pori Kuopio Kajaani Kehyskunnat Vantaa Mikkeli Seinäjoki Keskiarvo Lahti Joensuu Rovaniemi Hämeenlinna Kotka Porvoo Oulu Lappeenranta Rauma Kouvola 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% vuosikasvu Vuokratuotto ennen veroja Arvonnousu 8 Keskimääräinen kokonaistuotto 2017-2021, kaksiot Kokkola Vaasa Helsinki Seinäjoki Jyväskylä Tampere Vantaa Kehyskunnat Turku Mikkeli Pori Espoo-Kauniainen Porvoo Keskiarvo Kuopio Kajaani Joensuu Rovaniemi Hämeenlinna Oulu Lahti Rauma Lappeenranta Kotka Kouvola 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% vuosikasvu Vuokratuotto ennen veroja Arvonnousu 9 Keskimääräinen kokonaistuotto 2017-2021, kolmiot+ Kokkola Vaasa Seinäjoki Helsinki Espoo-Kauniainen Jyväskylä Tampere Vantaa Pori Kehyskunnat Turku Joensuu Keskiarvo Rovaniemi Mikkeli Kajaani Kuopio Oulu Rauma Lahti Hämeenlinna Porvoo Kotka Lappeenranta Kouvola -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% vuosikasvu 10 Vuokratuotto ennen veroja Arvonnousu Keskimääräinen kokonaistuotto vuodessa 2017-2021, Helsinki, yksiöt Helsinki 2 Helsinki 1 Helsinki 3 Helsinki 4 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vuokratuotto ennen veroja Arvonnousu 11 Alueelliset kehitystekijät • Vuokratuoton ja arvonnousun lisäksi alueittaista kehitystä ennakoidaan seuraavien muuttujien avulla 1. Väestönkasvu (%) 2. Asuntokuntien lukumäärä, muutos (%) 3. Kotitalouksien käytettävissä olevat tulot, muutos (%) 4. Yli 18-vuotiaiden opiskelijoiden osuus 18-64-vuotiaista (%) 5. Asuntojen hintataso suhteessa Helsinki-1 (luku väliltä 0-1) 6. Hintojen vaihtelu (varianssi) 7. Tulotaso suhteessa Helsinkiin 8. Asumismenojen osuus nettotuloista (%) • Muutokset laskettu käyttäen kymmenen edellisen vuoden kehitystä. 12 2016 2017 Vaasa Vaasa Kokkola Jyväskylä Helsinki Kokkola Jyväskylä Kuopio Oulu Helsinki Rovaniemi Pori Espoo-Kauniainen Espoo-Kauniainen Kuopio Mikkeli Seinäjoki Tampere Pori Turku Mikkeli Seinäjoki Vantaa Lahti Kehyskunnat Kehyskunnat Kajaani Rovaniemi Lahti Vantaa Tampere Kajaani Hämeenlinna Oulu Porvoo Hämeenlinna Turku Rauma Rauma Kotka Lappeenranta Joensuu Kotka Lappeenranta Kouvola Kouvola Joensuu Porvoo 13 Vuokratuotto pysynyt tasaisena pitkällä aikavälillä 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 Vuokratuotto ennen 3,0 veroja % 2,5 Puuntuotannon 2,0 sijoitustuotto 1,5 puhdistettuna kantohintojen 1,0 muutoksesta 0,5 0,0 Lähde: Tilastokeskus, Luke 14 Vuokraovi.comin tilastot Helsingin vuokra-asuntojen markkinointiajat 25 20 15 10 5 0 Espoon vuokra-asuntojen keskimääräinen markkinointiaika 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Vantaan vuokra-asuntojen markkinointiajan kehittyminen 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Pääkaupunkiseudun vuokrattavien asuntojen keskimääräisen markkinointiajan kehittyminen 25 20 15 10 5 0 Tampereen vuokra-asuntojen markkinointiajan kehittyminen 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Turun vuokra-asuntojen keskimääräinen markkinointiaika 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Lahden asuntojen keskimääräinen markkinointiaika 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jyväskylän vuokra-asuntojen keskimääräinen markkinointiaika 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Kuopion vuokra-asuntojen keskimääräinen markkinointiaika 25 20 15 10 5 0 Seinäjoen vuokra-asuntojen keskimääräinen markkinointiaika 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 .
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