May 31, 2016
Introducing LONG TERM INCOME FACILITY* for regular withdrawal from the scheme
*Long Term Income (LTI) facility is an attempt at answering the need for predictable long term cash ow of investors. This facility will allow investors to redeem a xed sum of money periodically i.e. 0.75% of the investment amount on monthly basis at the prevailing Net Asset Value (NAV).
Advantages of Long Term Income Facility
Regular Cashow Easy Liquidity Exit Load Waiver Tax Efcient
For more information log on to assetmanagement.kotak.com or call 1800-22-2626 EXPERT SPEAK
Mr. Nilesh Shah
June 30, 2016
Dear Friends, Half of CY 2016 is behind us. Many things done, many more waiting to be. For a market watcher, the year's big story so far has to be Brexit and Rexit and for some: even Mexit (Messi's exit) . There are many political and economic statements to be made, as have been already. The markets reacted differently to the events. And that itself is a story. What we learn from it is one thing - The world is uncertain and even best commentators are kept guessing when the reality unfolds. So how do we tide over these event led volatilities as and when they come. First thing is that we accept that such events will come from time to time. And that: equity market is not a smooth upward curve but a volatile yet mostly upward trending long term opportunity that one needs to ride through. In other words, you have to use volatility to enter the market prudently and wait for upswings to enjoy wealth growth. Other thing is that such events test the discipline of the steady SIP investor. It also teaches us the prudence of maintaining a sliver of cash to capture market downturns as it comes. In India's case, Rexit came as a disappointment to many. This is because Dr Raghuram Rajan is seen as an efficient governor who has ably brought down WPI & CPI inflation without harming growth prospects. His initiatives and outreaches have been seen as being in reformist mould. His initiatives in ensuring bank balance-sheet clean-ups too have brought transparency and cheers from proponents. Lastly, he has been perhaps more market oriented rather statist view. For that reason, more banking licences have been handed out in his tenure than in the past. And as we speak, the institution is on course to make the process a year round affair making banking licenses available on 'tap'. Brexit was an event for which frankly the world was mostly unprepared for notwithstanding the pre-poll data. The event came, jolted the market and went away. Having said that, markets have done a superb job till now to take it in stride. But the devil is in the details of the hundreds of fresh documentation that would need to be done between Britain and EU. This event may therefore have some more impact from time to time. More importantly, the Brexit has put the idea of EU at risk - if not in immediate jeopardy. Many separatist parties are vying for similar outcome. India specific, the impact is largely due to volatility in the INR and its potential impact on the banking system liquidity At the home turf, the average AUM numbers by AMFI was a matter of pride and humble submission for us. With your able support and outreach Kotak MF reached an average AUM of Rs 62,874 crore. This is around 15,000 crore more than last year. Because of this jump, your mutual fund is now ranked 8th in the industry. Our rate of growth at 30.78% too was above the industry average (15.53%). In our endeavour to offer quality investment solutions, we have introduced Kotak Long Term Income Facility (LTIF), an attempt at answering the need for predictable long term cash flow of investors. This, and many more such solutions would be introduced in line with our objective of customer centricity. We remain convinced that your continued support and cooperation would only add to our mutual growth in times to come. Wishing you a happy Monsoon Season, Regards, Nilesh Shah Managing Director
1 EQUITY VIEW
This has been a month of exits starting with RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan announcing that he would be returning to academia at the end of his term in September 2016 followed by the outcome of the referendum in United Kingdom (UK), whereby contrary to hope, majority voted in favour of exiting the European Union (EU). While global events have been at the fore this month, domestic factors such as the progress of the monsoons, steps being taken towards the resolution of banking system stress and hopes of the passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill have also been the been drivers of the market. In the midst of global uncertainty, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net buyers in equities (for the month of June '16) to the tune of USD 555 mn The FII net outflow in debt has been sharper at USD 922 mn. As we move into the month of July '16, it is likely that investor focus will shift towards the quarterly earning season, progress of the monsoons (July being the key month for crop sowing) and the monsoon session of the Parliament. The Indian corporate sector would also move towards the adoption of the new Indian Accounting Standards (Ind-AS), the impact of which would be visible from Q1FY17 onwards. The Union Cabinet has approved the recommendations of the 7th Pay Commission. The resultant salary hike and the payment of arrears would help boost domestic consumption and be positive for automobiles, consumer durables, housing and home improvement sectors. With the Nifty trading at 17.5xFY17E EPS and 14.5xFY18E EPS (on a free float basis), valuations currently are in the fair zone and hence the need for earnings growth momentum to improve from here on in order to support the market momentum. Macro parameters remain robust with signs of moderate improvement in growth, adequate forex reserves to combat INR volatility and a benign interest rate environment. Brexit: Implications for the global economy: Near term uncertainty to prevail; Central banks to ensure liquidity remains ample Britain voted in a referendum to leave the EU with a 51.9% majority. The immediate effects of the same were visible in the currency markets with the GBP moving to decades low against the USD and other risky asset classes taking a beating. Prime Minister Cameron resigned and passed on the responsibility of the next steps to his successor. A Brexit like event opens a Pandora's box in terms of the degree of uncertainty in the already fragile global economic backdrop. However, we must take cognizance of the fact that while clearly the event would result in uncertainty for a period of time, unlike during the global financial crisis of 2007-08, regulators will seek to ensure minimum financial market volatility and maybe even act in a concerted manner if so required. We believe that global equity markets in the near term would price in (1) uncertainty around the political developments in the EU and (2) lower GDP growth. Global equities have been supported by low 'global' cost of equity and markets will now price higher risk and lower economic (and earnings) growth which may lead to lower multiples. In this regard, the central banks across the world are likely to respond in the following manner: