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South Asia River Flow Projections and Their Implications for Water Resources Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 12, 5789–5840, 2015 www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/12/5789/2015/ doi:10.5194/hessd-12-5789-2015 HESSD © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 12, 5789–5840, 2015 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System South Asia river flow Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS if available. projections and their implications for water South Asia river flow projections and their resources implications for water resources C. Mathison et al. 1 1 1 2 C. Mathison , A. J. Wiltshire , P. Falloon , and A. J. Challinor Title Page 1Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK Abstract Introduction 2School of Earth and Environment, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, Conclusions References University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9AT, UK Tables Figures Received: 16 April 2015 – Accepted: 29 April 2015 – Published: 16 June 2015 Correspondence to: C. Mathison (camilla.mathison@metoffice.gov.uk) J I Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. J I Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 5789 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract HESSD South Asia is a region with a large and rising population and a high dependance on industries sensitive to water resource such as agriculture. The climate is hugely 12, 5789–5840, 2015 variable with the region relying on both the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) and glaciers 5 for its supply of fresh water. In recent years, changes in the ASM, fears over the rapid South Asia river flow retreat of glaciers and the increasing demand for water resources for domestic and projections and their industrial use, have caused concern over the reliability of water resources both in the implications for water present day and future for this region. The climate of South Asia means it is one of the resources most irrigated agricultural regions in the world, therefore pressures on water resource 10 affecting the availability of water for irrigation could adversely affect crop yields and C. Mathison et al. therefore food production. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. ERA-Interim, together with two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the present day processes, Title Page particularly the monsoon, reasonably well are downscaled using a regional climate Abstract Introduction 15 model (RCM) for the periods; 1990–2006 for ERA-Interim and 1960–2100 for the two GCMs. The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of Conclusions References present day and future river flows through comparison with river gauge observations, Tables Figures where available. In this analysis we compare the river flow rate for 12 gauges selected to represent J I 20 the largest river basins for this region; Ganges, Indus and Brahmaputra basins and characterize the changing conditions from east to west across the Himalayan J I arc. Observations of precipitation and runoff in this region have large or unknown Back Close uncertainties, are short in length or are outside the simulation period, hindering model development and validation designed to improve understanding of the water cycle for Full Screen / Esc 25 this region. In the absence of robust observations for South Asia, a downscaled ERA- Interim RCM simulation provides a benchmark for comparison against the downscaled Printer-friendly Version GCMs. On the basis that these simulations are among the highest resolution climate Interactive Discussion simulations available we examine how useful they are for understanding the changes 5790 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows, with timing of maximum river flows broadly matching HESSD the available observations and the downscaled ERA-Interim simulation. Typically the 12, 5789–5840, 2015 RCM simulations over-estimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations 5 probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model although comparison with the downscaled ERA-Interim simulation is more mixed with only South Asia river flow a couple of the gauges showing a bias compared with the downscaled GCM runs. projections and their The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of implications for water the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the resources 10 century; this trend is generally masked by the large annual variability of river flows for this region. The future seasonality of river flows does not change with the future C. Mathison et al. maximum river flow rates still occuring during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present day natural variability. Increases in river flow Title Page during peak flow periods means additional water resource for irrigation, the largest 15 usage of water in this region, but also has implications in terms of inundation risk. Abstract Introduction Low flow rates also increase which is likely to be important at times of the year when Conclusions References water is historically more scarce. However these projected increases in resource from rivers could be more than countered by changes in demand due to reductions in the Tables Figures quantity and quality of water available from groundwater, increases in domestic use 20 due to a rising population or expansion of other industries such as hydro-electric power J I generation. J I Back Close 1 Introduction Full Screen / Esc South Asia, the Indo-Gangetic plain in particular, is a region of rapid socio-economic change where both population growth and climate change is expected to have a large Printer-friendly Version 25 impact on available water resource and food security. The region is home to almost Interactive Discussion 1.6 billion people and the population is forecast to increase to more than 2 billion by 2050 (United Nations, 2013). The economy of this region is rural and highly 5791 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | dependant on climate sensitive sectors such as the agricultural and horticultural industry, characterised by a large demand for water resources. As a result, over the HESSD coming decades, the demand for water from all sectors; domestic, agricultural and 12, 5789–5840, 2015 industrial is likely to increase (Gupta and Deshpande, 2004; Kumar et al., 2005). 5 The climate of South Asia is dominated by the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), with much of the water resource across the region provided by this climatological South Asia river flow phenomena during the months of June–September (Goswami and Xavier, 2005). The projections and their contribution from glacial melt to water resources is less certain but likely to be important implications for water outside the ASM period during periods of low river flow (Mathison et al., 2013). Glaciers resources 10 and seasonal snowpacks are natural hydrological buffers releasing water during spring and autumn when the flows of catchments like the Ganges are at their lowest. Similarly C. Mathison et al. they may act to buffer inter-annual variability as well releasing water during warmer drier years and accumulating during wetter colder years (Barnett et al., 2005). Recent Title Page studies have shown that both of these are changing (ASM rainfall – Christensen et al., 15 2007, and glacier mass balance – Fujita and Nuimura, 2011) putting more pressure Abstract Introduction on groundwater resources which is not sustainable in the longer term (Rodell et al., Conclusions References 2009). Gregory et al.(2005) suggest that the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation could be more important factors influencing food security than the direct Tables Figures effects of climate change, particularly for India. Aggarwal et al.(2012) suggest that an 20 increase in extremes (both temperature and precipitation) could lead to instability in J I food production and it is this variability in food production that is potentially the most significant effect of climate change for the South Asia region. J I Immerzeel et al.(2010) found that by the 2050s the main upstream water supply Back Close could decrease by approximately 18 % although this decrease was partly offset by an Full Screen / Esc 25 8 % increase in precipitation. Immerzeel et al.(2010) use general circulation models (GCMs) which have a coarse resolution and are known to have difficulty in capturing Printer-friendly Version the monsoon precipitation and in estimating the relationship between daily mean temperature and melting of snow and ice. Interactive Discussion 5792 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | The Indo-Gangetic plains have traditionally provided the staple crops of rice and wheat (Aggarwal et al., 2000) for India and South Asia as a whole, irrigation is an HESSD important part of this industry and any limitation of water resource needed to maintain 12, 5789–5840, 2015 yields of these crops could have implications on the food and water security of the 5 region. The aim of this analysis is to examine how useful these simulations are for understanding how river flows could change in South Asia in the future and the South Asia river flow implications this could have on water resources that are increasingly in demand. The projections and their water resources for the South Asia region as a whole are generally poorly understood implications for water with limitations in the observing networks and availability of data for both precipitation resources 10 and river flows presenting a real challenge for validating models and estimates of the water balance of the region.
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