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Multi0page.Pdf t 38 INDUSTRYAND ENF:RGY DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPER INDUSTRYSERIES PAPER No. 39 Public Disclosure Authorized The U.S. AutomotiveAftermarket: Opportunitiesand Constraints for DevelopingCountry Suppliers Public Disclosure Authorized June 1990 Public Disclosure Authorized . h-k *- x ;K '\ Public Disclosure Authorized TheWorld Bank Industry and Energy Department, PRE THE U.S. AUTOMOTIVEAFTEPIMAAIKET: OPPORTUNrrIES AND CONSTRAINTS FOR DEVVELOPINGCOUNTRY SUPPLIERS Antonia Bowring June 1990 Industry Development Division Industry and Energy Department Policy, Research and External Affairs GLOSSARY AM afermarket APAA Automothie Paws and Acessoris Association Big Thre BGeneral Motors, Ford and Chrsler CAD emputer-aided design car paw number of registered automobiles DC developing country 0 CIM computer-integratedmanufaturing DIY do-it-yourself(e.g., do it yourslf repairs) Fr Financal limes (London) GM General Motors IAC industially advanced country JAMA Japanee Automobile Manufacturers Association Inc 1V joint venture MIEMA Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Assoiation MI mechanic-installed MUV manufacturing unit value MVMA Motor Vehicle Manufates Assocdationof the United States, Inc. OE original equipment OEM original equipment manufacturer (e.g., Ford, Renault, Toyta) OES original equipment servicechannel vce meet number of vehle egistered (automobikes,light trucks and heavy duty trucks and buses IWD warehou distributor * InthEis epotf,'d_e cu oantrWesXasem to he newly Indodtalized rsthat oa aq opars ad acma to the US (ArguIna BA Made H}ngKon& nda Sapte. SouthKea and Tain) andothe dvkaqpn cntri (eg, ae^ bo Mia,WI tbe r_Phipn and TUMd) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. EXEC IVESUMMARY .............................................. I L INTRODUCTION ..............................................1 IL TRADE TRENDS IN THE AUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRY ..................4 A. Global AutomotiveIndustry .................................. 4 B. US.Automotve Industry ................................... 11 lIL COMPETrrIVE TRENDS IN GLOBAL AlUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRY AND THEIR IMPLCATIONS ..................................... 15 A. Growing'rL-lmnance of the JapaneseAutomotive Industry .... ........ 15 B. Oveapacity ............................................ 16 C. Product Changes .......................................... 17 D. ChangingManufctur-Supplier Relations ....................... 20 lV. GLOBALIZATIONOF THE AUTOMOTIVENDUSTRY ................. 26 V. STRUCTUREOF THE U.S. AFTERMARKETAND DISTRIBULIONCHANNE2LS 29 A. Overvew of the US. Aftermarket ............................. 29 B. Distribution Channcl ...................................... 33 VL SURVEYRESULTS: OVERSEASSOURCING OF REPLACEMENTPARTS AND ACCESSORIES,AND MARKETENTRY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE U. AFnERMARKET .................................. 40 A. Remonsfor OverseasSourdng .40 . Reasons ft NotSourdng Oveas .41 C Products and Producdon Relatks .43 D. BuyerSupplierRelationsps .46 E. Tfansportationand Dstribution .48 TMeauthor would like to thankHank Allessloof EasternConsultants Inc, Earl Landesmanof A.T. Kearney Inc, Bob Reckof the U.S,Dqartment of Cmmerce, NancyBay (IENIN),and YannisKarmokokias (IFC for manyhelpful comments and advie. Bita Hadjimichaelassited with the quantitatvedata. Anna Marie Manon and WilsonPeids providedword-processing expertise. Specal thanks is extendedto Stephanie Gerard for editorialassstane. The viws ¢pressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to the WorldBank or its affiliates. -2- Tab of C.ntmt (Contd.) Page No. VIL MARXETENTRY: STRATEGICCONSIDERATIONS FOR DEVELOPINGOCOUNTRYSUPPLXPItS . ........................50 A. MarketEntry Difficulties.................................... 5s a Market EntryChnne .....................................51 V$L CONCILJSIONS ...............................................56 ANNEXES Annx Table Al1: WorldPaenger Car Fleet-Market Shas AnnexTable AZ LeafingExporters of NewAutomobiles 19801988 AnnexTable A3: AutomotiveComponent Exports-Leading Exports, 1980-1988 AnnexTable A.4: US. VolumeImpors of NewAutomobiles-Major Supplers, 198W48 AnnexTable AM5: U.S. Importsof AutomotiveParts-Major Suppliers,1985-1989 Ame TableA.6. Top Flv Product CategDriesof MajorAutomotive Component Suppliers to the USA, 1989 Annex .1 ImprovedFuel Economy AnnexB.2 US Cean Air Act Amendments Annex .B3 GE. Tehnological Canges and Their Impact on the Aftermarket Annex C Size and Structureof the U.S. Aftermarket Annex D Distributon channels Annex E AutomotiveProducts Sourced from DevebpingCountry Suppliers Annex F Major AutomotiveTrade Showsin the U.S. Annex 0 Automote Aftermarket Associations in the US Annex H ILst of FinmsInterviewed BIBLUOGRAPHY EXECUTi SUMMARY iL Ths study prvides an overviw of the U.S automotiveaftermarket whbi consiu primar of seviing vehides in opetkion, instalingreplacement parts or additionalasories In vehicles after purchase,and purchai componentsfor do-It-youwsef(DIY) work. his report asses export opportunties and constaints for developg coutry suppliersIn the U.S aftmarket, with the prcipal focuson marketentry consideations. Tde pater are outlined,and keycompetitive tre In the global automotiveindustqy and their implictions for the U.S aftemarket and developingcountry suppliers are hIhlghted AutomotivTde T ds in the 190s IL The global passengercar stock totaled approIlmately396 milion in 1988 In 1989,total worlddemandY for new passengercars was 292 mion, a decra of 6% from 198. Totalworld demand is epc to gw at an aveage compoundedrate of about 2.5% from 1989to 1997. IL Gobal automobileexorts totaled over 13.6million units in 1988lgrowing at an avage cmpunded rate of 4% duringthe 1980L.In 1988the three gest eporters wereJapan, West Germany and France: Japan exported more than 44 mfllion units, while West Germanyand France exported apprximately2.5 and 2.1 millionunits respectivl. Of the majorautomobile suppliers, Korea had the most dramaticgowth rate during the 1980s(44%). Iv. In 198, world expors of automotivecomponents totaled over $57 bill Te U.S.was the largestsuppier with exportsof over $11 billion;however, divergent growth rates were experiencedby the leadingautomotive component supplies in the 1980 v. US. imports of new automobilesfeU to under 4.5 mion units In 1988-withJapan supping alnost half-from a high of almost4.7 millionunits in 1986 Most major automobilesuppls to the US. exincdegative annual compoundedgrowth rates between 1985to 1988 In the cwe of Japan, this drop is due primarilyto the large increasein the numberof Japaneseca now manuactured In the US. Korea'sexports to the US., however,increased by an impressive186% from 1985to 1980 vL MheUS importedalmost $34.5bilion in automotivecomponents in 1989,with the top fve countriesacounting for 84%. Japan and Canadawere the two largestsupplie-each accunting for more than $10 billion;Mexico was thi, at about $43 billion;West Cermanyand Brai waerethe fourth and fifthlargest supplies respectvl However,the majorsuppUers to the US. experiencedwidely varying anmal compoundedgowth rates between 1985 and 1989. For instance,Japan and Spain saw their automotve compont exportsicrse more than 14.5%,while Caada and Fhace saw their expors drop by 6.3% and 4% respective. /V For the sake of brevity,the US. automotiveaftemarket is referd to as the US. aftermarket throughoutthis repor. 21 Eaciuditgdemand in sodalist economies. Preiminy fgures for 1989indicate a 35%drop In Komrasexports to the US. fromIts 1988klve vii Although US. automotive omponent imports from the ASEAN countries and China were much lower In value, they grew rapidly, irangigfrom 17% for Singaporeto over 64% for MalaysI lTailand's export growthwas a phenomenal9M%. COMPtve Trends In the Glbal Autm ve Industy andThl,or ImplIatIons vii Four principalfactors are responsiblefor flercerglobal competitionin the late 1980s. (i) Groig dominnc of tb Japanese auom_ve Industry. Japan is the world'slargest exporter of new automobiles In 1988it exportedover 4.4 millionnew cars,almost a third of globalexports In addition,the Japaneseautomotive industiy has increasedits productionactivities in both the U.S. and Europe. Industryexperts estimate that there are more than 200 Japanesecomponent suppliers engagedin some formof automotivemanufacturing in North America. (ii) OvercapacityIn autombie Ug globally.lbis is expectedto reach some9 millionunits by the early 1990s-over20% morecas and trucksthan consumerswill demand. It is predictedthat 60% of this excesscapacity will be in North America. At present,Norh Americanovercapacity is estimatedto be more than 4 mIllionunits a year-at least 80% held by General Motos, Ford and Chrser.f US. overcapacityis oftenattributed to the increasingpresence of 'transplanted'Japanese automakems. (W) Produc canges (productinnovations, shorter product development cycles, new processtechnologies, and the influenceof environmentalconcerns on productdevelopment). Product changes in today's origal equipment(OE) marketwill influenceaftermarket needs in the 1990sand beyond. If car and componentdesigns change often, more parts numbershave to be produced. Thus, distributors repair outlets and senice stations wfllhave to carrymore stocl. Pars proliferation,resulting from product changes, means that aftermarketmanufacturers are likely to 'cer pick' the parts they will produce(the higher volumeparts) and fill out their lines by buying-inother parts (usuallylow volume parts) from domesticor overseassuppliers In addition, environmental ocerns may bringabout the use of higherquality parts in OE production,which could
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