echange F O R B E V A N F O U N D A T I O N M E M B E R S SUMMER 2016

Wales: The next five years

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28 4 . . FEATURE SUBSCRIBER SPOTLIGHT @bevanfoundation www.facebook.com/BevanFoundation 20 28 26 22 25 10 18 16 14 12 8 6 2 8. HEALTH8. staff orothersubscribers.Allarticlesare copyrightBevanFoundation. contributors andare notnecessarilyshared orendorsedbyBevan FoundationTrustees, The viewsinarticles,advertisementsandnews itemsinExchangeare thoseofthe Catherine A’Bear,Catherine Manager,Regional JobFit Rehab Spotlight Subscriber Subscribers’ News Subscribers’ News Foundation Bevan Cardiff Rethinking Barry Mark Emotional health and the school curriculum school the and health Emotional Whole town regeneration: a case study case a regeneration:town Whole Burnett Lis TowardsWalesfairer a Milligan June wellbeing ‘TeamAand health toWales’ appraoch PaulThomas Welsh for housing hold years five next the could What Howell Kevin Wales’economy for prospectus post-BrexitThe JonesCalvin Secretary Education the to message A Egan David water? treading service health the is change: to Obstacles Longley Marcus Brexit and election the after finances Wales’public Trickey Michael exciting gets Wales’politics McAllister Laura SHOWCASE Contents ec SUMMER 2016 SUMMER Samaritans han www.linkedin.com/company/bevan-foundation 16 . WELLBEING g e www.bevanfoundation.org www.bevanfoundation.org 18 . EQUALITY

1 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE

2 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE School ofManagement. Laura McAllisterisProfessorofGovernanceat theUniversity ofLiverpool’s Feature

gets exciting gets Laura McAllister McAllister Laura politics Wales’ campaign was always a complete irrelevance as, irrelevance complete a always was campaign election the UKIP,whom was for exception The extents. differing to but hoped have would they than worse did party other majority. Every a of short was seats 29 with complexion. their and governments future about speculation of years several and campaigning of fury and sound the despite changed actually had much nothing if as looked it in came eventually results the When difference. a make actually representativesmight elected our where areas policy the to back turned attentiongasp, last its at almost Then, London. in rows leadership Tataparty the and crisis Steel T Welsh Labour again emerged as the largest party but, party largest the as emerged again WelshLabour dominated by UK-wide issues like reaction to reaction like UK-wide issues by dominated initially was campaign The one. strange a was election Assembly National 2016 he spin. Rather than the simple confirmation of a single a of confirmation simple the than Rather spin. a into thrown was Welshpolitics of world predictable usually and docile the when Officer Presiding Deputy and Officer Presiding new the of investiture the of theatre state the around ‘excitement’ the nation. the across performance spread evenly and consistent a for seats seven of reward fair a meant system electoral semi-proportional our but - cent per 12.5 to cent per 13.4 from - Election General year's last from down went constituencies Welsh forty the in vote the of share actual party's the that noting UKIP,worth towards it's inclined somehow Walesis that this from deduce who those For legislature. domestic a in representation multiple first its guaranteed was party the up, held vote its provided Election over, there we were gearing ourselves up for up ourselves over,gearing wereElection we there ‘ attitude. us” against or us with either “you're a by dominated be to continues Walesmeant has politics our of top very the at change of lack The ‘ occurred in the political parties or, if it has, no-one has no-one has, or,it if parties political the in occurred has arrangements and deals minorities, coalitions, of world new brave the around thinking strategic real, little discredited. and undermined worst at and tolerated best at are challenge regular,and scrutiny robust proper where attitude, us" against or us with either "you're a by dominated be to Walescontinues meant has politics our of top very the at change power.of sharing lack of The and WelshAssembly,politics of the of electorate’s views the from away miles million a are them of all that doubt Wales.in scene political whole the across thinking and attitude both in pluralism of lack disturbing a in roots their haveview, my in These, factors. historical private longer,and deeper far by conditioned been has relationship the truth, in but, shocking and public childish, was That business. Assembly of day last very the on Bill Health Public the of collapse the in resulted which Services Public for Minister then the from comment date" "cheap advised ill- the in culminated It Cymru. Plaid with especially but Assembly,last the in parties other the of all and Labour between relationship toxic increasingly and damaged next. happen might importantly,what more and, did it that way the in happened this why is intriguing and interestingmore is extensively,what but reported been has next happened what of drama leader,own Wood.Leanneits The nominate to planning was Cymru Plaid that hear to began we Jones, Carwyn leader WelshLabour for Minister First for nomination Equally, post-election events would also suggest that suggest also would Equally,events post-election no is there party,as one blame to wrong be would It a to back dates followed that stand-off the of Much

3 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE 4 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE ‘ thoughts.” foolish have to us for easier it makes language our of slovenliness “The words: Orwell’sGeorge In ‘ few had faith in the workability of an ultra-minority an of workability the in faith had few as understandable clear. was wasn't This goal Plaid's AMs, 12 only with that, is truth The is. point end or goal its what clear be should kind this of intervention political every but course, of natural entirely That's landscape. new the in position political party's the out stake to keener and style in consensual naturally less AMs of team new a from approach muscular new the symbolising as well as ranks Plaid's within risk of spirit new a reflected that one also was it but obvious, fairly That's one. bold and brave incredibly an parliament. hung a effectively is what within necessary negotiations critical the in objectives party clear out seek to leader each around teams the in presence soothing no was there election, post time, This time. some for imperfect been have parties biggest two the of leaders the between relationships Now on. not was this perspective, Cymru's Plaid from But continued. be to relationshipsparent-child charge, in party dominant largest the resumed: restored. was equilibrium political the magic, by if as and, memories organisational wiped miraculously chamber, Assembly the without or within challenge strategic a mounting of incapable seemingly parties opposition of set fractious and divided a with coupled election, 2011 the in Labour for resultHowever,improved much a again. same the be would politics Welshin nothing that meant deal the that recognition scant was there 2007,in Plaid and Labour between agreementWalesCoalition One the after commented us of other.several As each with take its share to thought The decision by Plaid to nominate Leanne WoodLeannewas nominate to Plaid by decision The be to was service normal 2016 bySo, First Minister. There are plenty of precedents, for precedents, of Minister.plenty First are There for candidate a nominate can party party,any one for majority outright an without institution parliamentary any in that Labour reminded Plaid Meanwhile, perhaps? routeroad relief M4 the over say future, the in point some at done been have could it surely then then, done wasn’t deal the if say to temptedMinister. is One First for candidate rival a for vote just than rather deal proper a do might group) Assembly its of not Walesbut in leader (UKIP's Gill Nathan that suggestions later by weakened somewhat was that slight a - UKIP Toriesthe with bed and into jumping of Plaid accused mainly) (MPs Labour 'sides’. both for damaging was that war spin phoney the to halt temporary a put later week a Minister First as Jones Carwyn basis. case by case a on parties other the all with struck deals with worked theory,have in could, it although government, Plaid As we know, the confirmation without a vote of vote a without confirmation know,the we As ultra-minority government or as a shot across the across shot a as or government ultra-minority an form to attempt genuine a Minister,as whether First for candidate own its forward putting party opposition main the with wrong nothing was There future. own its of Westminsterglimpse showing a be might Walesjust ok. is different that confident be to need we first, Wales,but in different be can we that is thoughts.”foolish have to us for easier it makes language our of slovenliness “The words:Orwell’s George In case. divorcebitter a from transcript the like sounded all blame, to was arrogance whose betrayal, biggest the committed party which who’, with bed’ Westminster.into ‘who’s‘jumped about Comments of version professional less and shrunken a witnessing were they if as events reported broadcasters mainstream Many understanding. and analysis serious for basis the not are activists party by other each at thrown insults Bitchy politics. new our report and contextualise better to responsibility a be surely now must there and salvos, early these from learn all Wecan pains. growing political these manage we as opponents. its by easier made been have scarcely could job Labour’s when Assembly last the of lite’ ‘majority- the than rather government, minority proper to adjust we as all us for process learning a is this truth, In campaigns. engagement public ignored, mostly but admirable, various its during did ever it than week that in hits more had has website Assembly the that suspect chamber,I the but in on went what by baffled bit a were public the that understand Now,I ‘climb-downs’. and deals’‘grubby, dodgy as next happened what described and events, these to refer to embarrassment 2014. in Salmond Alex from leadership SNP the over took she after coronationSturgeon's Nicola challenging Davidson Ruth Conservatives' Scottish the example If the post-election period has taught us anything, it anything, us taught has period post-election the If – speech and body – language our watch toWe need and ‘shambles’like terms used have people Several ‘ pluralist context in which they now find themselves. find now they which in context pluralist new the of reality the recognisingare politicians elected our that sign belated a as this see let's minority.instead,So, new the is majority - coalitions are states member EU of governments of two-thirds of average an time any at that noting worth is It norm. the are power shared and representation proportional politics, pluralist where world the in elsewhere regularly happen things of kinds These it. from Far stock". "laughing a politicians our or Assembly the made followed what or impasse original the that claim the dispute strongly also I Welshpolitics. and Assembly the for ones positive overall,are, vote Minister First the following events the that feel genuinely I us. around blowing change of wind the missing and done be always must politics how about misconceptions long-standing some ourselves to back reflecting of risk amateur,at and are weshambolic chaotic, are post-election. formed be to days 55 of average an take governments where Finland, of people winner,the clear or no produced had year this February in Election General their after days 70 for government a without ‘managed’ they if Ireland of people the Ask instance. this in governance good their speculate). could we (although outcome eventual the knowdidn’t genuinely we because exciting was This realities? political new our of representation and communication the about simply this is So ones. majoritarian strictly in than public in out played smoothly less and messier always are systems pluralist in interchanges political and Parliamentary surely? positive a is leaks without and parties the from figures respected two between constructively and quietly Assembly.Fifth the for culture operating the in change a around especially intent, political signal to bows is the new minority. new the is majority - coalitions are states member EU of governments of thirds two- of average an time any at that noting worth is It My point is that if we report ‘normal’ events as if they if as events ‘normal’ report we if that is point My Walesand of citizens the to risk real no was There held were talks ensuing the that fact Equally,the ‘

5 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE Public Services Michael Trickey Michael Trickey is Director of the Wales Public Services 2025 Programme.

mong the many uncertainties thrown up by the Wales’ Brexit decision is the impact on public finances Aand public services. They come on top of the huge challenge which Wales already faces in resourcing its public public services over the next few years and in meeting new commitments made during the election. finances Following the post-election agreements between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour and Welsh Liberal Democrats, we now have a better idea of the broad after the direction that public service policy is likely to take. Less clear is how the many new commitments made are to be funded or how Wales is going to handle the further 4 – 5 election per cent decline in its resource budget that we can anticipate by 2020. By that year, the Welsh resource and Brexit budget will have fallen by more than 10 per cent over the decade since 2010. The first question is whether austerity still hold in the new climate. The post-referendum decision by George Osborne to abandon the 2020 target for a balanced budget has certainly thrown UK fiscal policy up in the air, compounded at the moment by the competing views of the Tory leadership contenders. The IFS and other observers think that the result of the Osborne announcement may be to prolong public sector austerity further into the 2020’s. Some economists anticipate further cuts in spending or increased taxes. Who knows where will all this leave the Brexit commitments to spend more on the NHS and making good lost EU funds. It may be some time before all of this resolves . Amidst such big uncertainties and EU funding aside (a big aside), it is worth reflecting on the situation as we know it now. How to talk with the electorate about the tough spending choices that austerity imposes has continued to be something politicians shy away from. Our analysis1 shows that the Assembly election party manifestos included a wide range of new spending commitments. Wales DEL 2009-10 to 2019-20 Real Terms Against this, they also often acknowledged that fiscal times were tough and some included references to 18,000 efficiency savings. Plaid Cymru had an ambitious target of 16,000 releasing £1 billion across the Welsh budget to reallocate 14,000 to priorities and the Liberal Democrats spelled out some 12,000 savings. But manifestos generally offered more detail 10,000 about spending commitments than on how to reconcile EXCHANGE 8,000

£m £m 2015-2016 the growing long-term pressures on public services such 6,000 as health and social care, schools and housing with 4,000 declining spending power and the impact of welfare 2,000 changes. 0 The post-election agreements include spending Bevan Foundation 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 commitments on infant class sizes, more nurses and Source: WPS2025 analysis of November 2015 Spending Review primary health staff, a New Treatment Fund, 30 hours free

6 childcare, a floor for future local government funding private sector pay recovery will begin to change the settlements and ‘protections’ for higher education. It is pay-bargaining climate across public services and the impossible to put a precise figure on these, and much labour market. For example, the steep rise in agency depends on timing, but estimates of free childcare costs, costs for NHS nursing is being felt right across the UK for example, were over £50 million and class sizes around and is linked to staff shortages. We are also used to £40 million over 4 years. These do not appear huge sums talking about the demographic time bomb and rising in the context of the whole £14 billion Welsh resource demand for health and social care, but demographic budget but they are more significant at the margin. trends will have an impact on the workforce too. And This is before looking at other manifesto commitments this is before taking account of the impact on staffing of on the cost of care for older people, increased business Brexit and the scale of contribution made by workers rate relief and money for raising school standards. from outside the UK. The manifestos said little about the use of new taxation All this means that we are likely to hear more about powers to raise additional revenue – most of the ‘delivering with less’, efficiency and service commitments related to changes to, for example, transformation – easier to talk about than to deliver. business rates and council tax to achieve economic and In England, the NHS has been set a gargantuan target social policy goals, important in their own right rather of £22 billion efficiency gains by 2020 (a Wales than to the Welsh budget bottom line. Scotland was equivalent would be over £1 billion). How it is cautious about its use of tax powers to generate extra proposed to achieve this is slowly becoming revenue and Wales, understandably, shows every sign of clearer – though not less daunting. There has being the same. been no equivalent target set in Wales, Much depends on future discussion about a new fiscal although the Plaid manifesto did reference the framework for Wales with the Treasury, following the Carter Review which is seeking £5 billion savings There is a agreement with Scotland in February. At the time of in acute services in England through tackling consensus that writing, it is not clear what the establishment of a new UK unjustifiable variations in performance of NHS ‘the ‘biggest long- Government will mean for the timing of this. The sheer trusts. Although the Welsh context is different, term opportunity volume of international negotiations around Brexit, the there is clearly scope for improving efficiency in for making decoupling legislation and complexities of the situations our NHS – and other public services. But it will better use of in Scotland and Northern Ireland, could well suck the require drive and commitment at all levels. resources lies in capacity of the UK Government (and maybe the Welsh There is a consensus that the biggest long- reshaping the Government) away from questions such as how the term opportunity for making better use of way public Welsh block would be reduced to reflect the transfer of resources lies in reshaping the way public services work. tax revenues from the UK to the Welsh Government. At services work. The party manifestos frequently some point, the future of Barnett will have to be referred to joining up health and social care, a greater addressed, the question is when. Any impact on the emphasis on primary and community care, encouraging Welsh bottom line seems likely to be a slow burn. service delivery through social enterprises, co- This means that for the Fifth Assembly, managing the production and improving accountability. Most parties new commitments and growing demand for public now acknowledge the importance of shifting to early services with less money is likely to depend on a mix of intervention and prevention – and of course the new further cuts, efficiency savings and accelerating reform in Future Generations Act gives expression to that. The the way that services are designed and delivered. issue for Wales is not so much the absence of We have seen cuts across Wales in ‘non-protected’ aspirations but turning those into day-to-day reality on services such as libraries, leisure and the arts but the the ground. It will require more and sustained effort impact of austerity on public services would have been than we have been used to. EXCHANGE even deeper but for the unprecedented period of pay The Wales Public Services 2025 Programme will be restraint across the public service workforce. The UK saying more about the figures and the choices in the Government plans are based on the assumption that this autumn, in association with new Welsh studies by the will continue – but is this an assumption too far? Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Health Foundation. The welcomed introduction of the National Living Wage will have a big impact on pay and on costs in the care 1. Zolle, N (2016) Implications of party manifestos for Bevan Foundation public services: the National Assembly for Wales sector in particular and, more generally, a continued elections. Wales Public Services 2025

7 Health Marcus Longley Marcus Longley is Professor of Applied Health Policy and Director of the Welsh Institute for Health and Social Care at the University of South Wales.

Obstacles to change: is the health service treading water?

’m no Mystic Meg, but I can predict one thing with seem too bad? In the same four-year period, the number certainty: crisis-laden headlines about the NHS at the of referrals to hospital has increased by 27 per cent, while Iend of this Assembly term will be depressingly similar the number of hospital staff has gone up by about 3 per to those at its start. Will this Groundhog Day never end? cent. In 2015, 71 per cent of people said they were ‘very History offers some modest ground for optimism. The satisfied’ with their experience of hospital care, a figure NHS in Wales has had the same problems for years, but which ranged from 64 per cent in 25-44 year olds to 79 it has done quite a good job of maintaining per cent in those aged over 75. performance, despite relentless demand, ever-improving Outside hospitals, the number of GP consultations has (expensive) new treatments and diagnostics, and really gone up by about 3 per cent every year for a decade or tough financial pressures. This might sound like more, but the number of GPs in Wales per 10,000 damning with faint praise, but things really could be a lot population hasn’t increased since 2007. In 2015, 37 per worse. cent of people surveyed reported that it was fairly or very EXCHANGE For example, the median waiting time for non- difficult to get a GP appointment. emergency treatment in NHS Wales – the time from So what can the new government do? Is this gradual referral by your GP to getting the definitive treatment decline the best we can hope for, if we are not going to for your condition - has increased from 8 weeks in invest vast new sums? The answer depends upon how the March 2012 to 9.2 weeks in March 2016. That’s a NHS responds to the two-fold challenge of prioritisation Bevan Foundation deterioration of about 4 per cent a year; but on the and efficiency: to do the right things, and to do things other hand, a couple of months or so probably doesn’t right.

8 Only do what works Efficiency and effectiveness through Prioritisation has always been hard – each Health Board service reconfiguration is a three-legged has about 60 top priority targets, about half of which will stool – rationalising hospitals, shifting not be met. The Government could be brave and reduce from hospitals to the community, and this number, but that would require a level of consensus merging health and social care. Hospital We have had and maturity in the political system which it hasn’t reconfiguration is largely unfinished painful and managed to achieve so far. business. We have had painful and controversial Another approach to prioritisation is to enlist the help controversial public consultations ‘‘ public of the patient – what do they want the NHS to do? In the around Wales over recent years about consultations last Assembly, the Health Minister, Mark Drakeford, reducing the number of specialist units around Wales adopted a policy of ‘prudent healthcare’ as a potentially and centralising some aspects of care, over recent years revolutionary approach to answering the question ‘what and so far, very little has changed. But about reducing should the NHS focus on?’ The answer was that the pressures continue to build, and the number of professionals and patients should be clear what outcomes some crucial decisions will reach the specialist units the patient wanted at the outset of treatment, and then Minister’s desk in his first year. Will the should work together to do only what is necessary to public be persuaded of the need for and centralising achieve those outcomes. This might sound like stating the change? some aspects of obvious, but the NHS wastes huge amounts of effort in At the same time we also need to shift care, and so far, unnecessary, duplicative and unproven activity, and is some care away from hospitals and into very little has often slow to adopt good practice. In some cases, as the community. Historically, this has changed. many as a third of patients wish they hadn’t had their been really hard, against a background of operation when asked two years afterwards. Tackle that, mounting pressures on GPs and a seeming inability to and suddenly rising demand isn’t quite so scary. Or so the free resources from hospitals to transfer to the theory goes… community. Hard work and frustration await here. We don’t yet know what effect being ‘prudent’ will have The third leg is bringing health and social care on the capacity of the NHS to cope – it’s quite possible together. Despite many warm words, progress in Wales that in some areas, focusing on what the patient really seems to lag behind that in Scotland and parts of wants might generate additional work – but it’s certainly England. The Minister has just acquired new legal powers worth giving it a try, and the new Minister has already said to force the pace of change – how will he use them? that ‘prudence’ is here to stay. Deal with crises Work more efficiently As if all that wasn’t enough, the Minister has to deal with Efficiency is better explored territory. There is a lot of crises. Because of our size, local problems in Wales very detailed work going on in the Welsh NHS as clinical teams rapidly become national problems. So should we better look critically at the ‘patient pathway’, asking whether insulate the Minister from the day-to-day decisions (‘take services can be steamlined and rationalised. Lots of politics out of the NHS’) by creating an NHS Wales improved efficiency and effectiveness comes from this, Executive responsible for delivering Ministerial priorities? especially where Health Boards can capitalise on their In summary, the Welsh NHS does seem to do quite a oversight of both primary and secondary care. good job of managing ever-increasing demand through A crucial bit of pathway re-design is re-shaping the improved efficiency, but at the cost of slowly workforce. Healthcare is labour intensive and quite deteriorating accessibility and dubious long-term expensive (the average salary in the NHS is about £28000 sustainability. per year), so it’s crucial to allow staff to use all the skills Demand trends are well-established and are unlikely to they have, and to make sure that the mix of staff reflects change much in five years. Inputs into healthcare are also patient needs. There is a big task here to develop new fairly predictable. Thanks in part to adroit financial EXCHANGE roles, to develop expert ‘generalists’ who can deal with management, and the usual serendipitous discovery of people in the round, and to get the numbers right – money down the back of the governmental sofa, the workforce planning in the NHS has too often be a story financial situation is unlikely either to improve or of feast and famine, as we cyclically train too many and deteriorate catastrophically. The trouble is, ‘business as then too few. Can we break this cycle? On the other hand, usual’ is not a sustainable strategy, and we seem to find labour relations in NHS Wales are going through a good major change very difficult. Bevan Foundation patch – the new Minister will want to keep it that way. No pressure then, Minister! Good luck.

9 10 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE David EganisDirectoroftheWales CentreforEquityinEducation. Education Education Secretary Education the to message A A policies on schools has schools on policies testing. national high-stakes and accountability extensive on based policies improvement school current of dominance the question seriously moment. the at havedon’t we that type the of programme Welshdistinctivelypolicy and inclusive ambitious, an articulate to Minister the be could you if great be would it and ‘England-lite’ being than more much to aspired devolution, education including devolution, wanted there! go to not warning dire a as serve should it experience English the from learn should we anything is there if sensible, more is countries other from learning policy whilst and works never type this of borrowingPolicy authorities. local hollowed-out and academies independent to led has that system education the of marketization neo-liberal the of language the of part are they where England fromborrowed been have that self-improvingsystem’ a ‘developing as such Wales.in education for prospectus and vision clear a 2001) of document Country Learning The since absent consider.to areas eight following the offer would I office? in time your for programme policy progressive a of features key the be might What The effect of these of effect The to time is it Second, who us of Those notions vacuous than more little have we Currently been has (it again have to good be would it First, of Education Minister in the WelshGovernment.the in Minister Education of post the hold to politician non-Labour first the become you as wishes best and welcome warm David Egan David Expecting schools to do this alone, through alone, this do to schools Expecting prevention on emphasis more far place to need we future, the in situation this by blighted Walesbeing stop to are we If life. later in and education in achieve will they what in significance much too far have all attend they school the and from come they area the child, a of background the inequity- its be to continues education. in equity improving and involvement community and family greaterencouraging teachers, supporting on based one with approach services. health public children’sand in work who those by reported being problems wellbeing growing with worrying, more even is people young on effect The retention. and recruitment teacher with challenges growing and morale teacher declining to led The greatest weakness in our education system education our in weakness greatest The testing-led and accountability this replaceThird, of future poverty and disadvantage. and poverty future of ‘ in later life. later in and education in achieve will they what in significance much too far have all attend they school the and from come they area the child, a of background the inequity- its be to continues system education our in weakness greatest The and a clearly articulated policy for teacher for policy articulated clearly a and education teacher initial of reforms The implemented. successfully be to are reforms these overcomeif be to need will this and mixed extremely been Waleshas in system education the to changes implementing recordin Our teachers. for Deal’ ‘New a of promises vaguer considerably and education teacher initial to reforms proposed by accompanied been has this and curriculum new a developing to approach innovative teachers. our for available is development professional high-class that ensure and curriculum school employed. be to criteria the be should these Grant, Deprivation Pupil the of future the example, review,for to comes time the When employment. quality good future find to people young all enable that aptitudes and qualifications skills, develop to need the and achievement low and disengagement address to intervention early for need the child’slife, a in years early the of importance the by underpinned are streams funding and policies all that ensure to area services education. to approach based community- and holistic a provide to programmes WelshGovernmentand agencies services, public other with partnership closer ever in work ‘ Graham Donaldson has provided us with an with us provided has Donaldson Graham new the of development the with ahead forge Fifth, public the in Minister’s other Youwith work should ‘narrowing gaps’ is completely is gaps’ ‘narrowing unrealistic. Schools need to be to need Schools unrealistic. supported in working with the with working in supported most disadvantaged young disadvantaged most people in their care, not care, their in people demonised because they are they because demonised unable to transform their transform to unable achievement. of the PISA results later this later results PISA the of year, will be a critical moment critical a year,be will for you in relation to the two the to relation in you for areas above. Whatever the Whatever above. areas outcomes of PISA for Wales,for PISA of outcomes there will be those who will tell will who those be will there you that we should put great put should we that you faith in them and those who will who those and them in faith argue that they are but another but are they that argue indicator and like all the rest, the all like and indicator one with limitations. Youlimitations. wouldwith one do well to heed the latter the heed to well do position. Undoubtedly, the publication Undoubtedly,the Fourth, ensure that schools that ensure Fourth, successful one. successful a as period Ministerial your hopefully,mark will, that prescription the finding with luck of Best offered. are you that lists wish more many and consider to you for advice? independent possible best the with officials your and you provide toempowered and process Nolan a through publically appointed all Council, Education National a and Officer Education Chief a not why Wales,then in Officers’ Nursing and Scientific Medical, Chief have we currently.have If you than advice expert independent forward. way affordable and sensible more a be might routes education higher appropriate and apprenticeships quality high education, further in study through employability to routesproviding to approach balanced more A achieved? being are that returns economic the by justified actually education higher of form any to progress Is have. currently we education higher in mass-market the of viability future unlikely.this make all area, this in powers raising tax- use to reluctance inevitable an and austerity of effects the education, higher for mass-market a of creation The students. to cost a not and right a was education higher where country a being to return Walescould that think to good be would It untenable. increasingly looks now it and one sustainable a was 2010 in introduced formulae funding the that think to unrealistic seemed always It respond. you how and fees tuition on recommends Review Wales.in education higher of position and role whole the re-consider to system. education equitable and successful a create to needed be will that skills employability the and learning community and family developing in play to role critical a has It deserves. it funding the of share the and attention the get always not does it yet and stories successWales’ greatest of one probably is learning adult/community and education further of form the in Post-16education, prominence. greater given is education pre-school that ensure will education. higher and schools than more much about is system education our that believe you implementation. measured more need will Donaldson fast-tracked; be to need development There will of course be many other areas of policy of areas other many be course of will There better need certainly almost finally,you And the what on course of be will attention the of Most Review Diamond the of publication the use Seventh, above out set been has what toHopefully, attention that clear make could you if good be would it Sixth, What you might also consider,also however,might you the What is

11 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE Economy Calvin Jones Calvin Jones is Professor of Economics at Cardiff Business School.

impact of Brexit: tariff-free trade with countries such as The post-Brexit New Zealand and Canada might well make Wales’ food exports to the rest of the UK – which we at the Business School estimate at three to four times larger prospectus than our international exports – much less competitive. Any shake-up of the Welsh landscape may well generate with a more varied, profitable and for Wales’ (potentially) ecologically appropriate set of economic activities, but the transition would be culturally, politically and economically painful. economy For the environmental sector and development more generally, the economic outlook is perhaps more positive, in pure economic terms at least. There are a number of projects, facilities and investments where EU environmental or climate regulation have a limiting impact. This can be clearly evidenced by the proposal to develop a Severn Barrage, which ran aground mostly s the dust of the Brexit vote settles, the shape on cost and credibility issues, but also faced the of the new economic landscape within which prospect of being likely illegal under the EU Habitats AWales must prosper is still clouded. This will Directive – a hurdle that will no longer be faced. UK likely be for months if not years, as the ‘asks’ of the UK government inability (or unwillingness) to respond to Government in exit negotiations and the EU’s response EU (and NGO) pressure on air and water quality, and its to them emerge. Despite this continued uncertainty, support for onshore fossil fuel extraction (despite there is value in assessing just how the Welsh economy climate and pollution uncertainties), together with a (and which specific parts) will be affected by Brexit – general ‘rowing back’ from prior environmental whether this comprises a total break, or a partial commitments implies (given no change in Westminster relationship via membership of the European Free Trade Government) a more development-oriented context, at Association (EFTA) and hence the European Economic least where that Government has influence. Area (EEA). Similar arguments can be made with regard to EU employment regulations to which the UK is currently Known-knowns and known-unknowns: signatory, affecting areas such as the treatment and the outcomes of Brexit payment of agency workers, and the Working Hours Whatever the outcome of EFTA and EEA negotiations, Directive. However, any hope here that deregulation the UK will move outside existing EU legislation on (and might positively impact employment growth in the UK support for) agriculture, fisheries and the environment. needs to reconcile with the fact that the UK (and In the case of fisheries, this is likely to attract some especially recently, Wales) has considerably media and political attention, but is economically outperformed the EU in terms of employment rate unimportant for Wales (fewer than a thousand work in during the time such directives have been in force, Welsh fisheries, landing mostly shellfish). suggesting they are no great brake on job creation. Agriculture is more important of course; The withdrawal of European Structural and Cohesion economically, culturally and in terms of the landscape. spending in Wales – ERDF and European Social Fund – Here the prospects are bleak, at least in the short term. are likely to be short-term deleterious, although they Single Farm Payments and Agri-Environmental grants may be honoured to the end of the 2014-2020 period, EXCHANGE comprise around £300m of income for farmers in beyond which Wales may not have qualified for further Wales annually, and without such payments (or their tranches at the highest level (although yes, we have swift replacement) many thousands of Welsh hill and heard this before). Whilst such funds have signally dairy farmers will no longer be viable – and swathes of failed to transform GVA or employment growth in the Welsh countryside will be unproductive and Wales (unsurprising given their relatively small scale), it Bevan Foundation potentially unmanaged (for better or worse). For is difficult to assess the counterfactual – what would agriculture there is a more subtle but also important economic conditions have been without them?

12 Multinationals’ plants in Wales, such as GE Aviation in Aviation GE as Wales,such in plants Multinationals’ example. first the Tataonly some being bidders of away falling apparent the with investors, inward of attraction the makes Brexit firms. non-British) mostly (and non-regional by controlled and owned overwhelmingly been long have – aerospace and automotive chemicals, metals, in manufacturing large-scale in and utilities; and energy in particularly – Welsheconomythe of heights commanding The term. gaps. capacity and financial any plug to effectively and swiftly react to ability and will the has Government UK the whether on depend will outcomes else, much so with as this, In replaced. be can auspices EU under collaborations educational and research scientific of raft the which with efficiency the and funds, matched EU from priming’ ‘pump without progress can Deal City and Metro Region Capital the as such projects key which at speed and extent the be will notable Also missed. most be will they here perhaps is It Valleys. the in realm urban the in investments and infrastructures, cultural and countryside of terms in visibly most co-benefits, environmental and social of number a have Additionally, they for Wales though will be decisions made by made decisions be will Walesthough for important More access. market single potentially,EEA and, sterling cheaper by counterbalanced part in be may this if uncertainty,even economic and policy of reasons for difficult more be to likely investment Other important impacts will be industrial and longer and industrial be will impacts important Other new overseas existing recognise and respond to them. to respond and recognise to unwilling or unable singularly far so been have that Governments UK Welshand for problem increasing ever an comprise will trends these of consequences the and accelerate will likely,Wales.More they in arrive Europeans Eastern fewer (even) because or EU the leave we because stop not will jobs of automation the and poweremployees’ of diminution the lives, working in fragmentation fundamental the but globalisation, of wound the over placed plaster sticking ineffective the on name the was that as worth economic of lack their for EU the punish to sought have Many Wales’population. of swathes large of marginalisation economic the to contributed part, in has, outsourcing and offshoring Wales.Globalisation, for troublesome particularly and structural deeply long-term, are Brexit to led However,that spending). factors the lower and taxes higher (e.g. effects UK indirect of terms in and directlyeconomically, termboth medium and short the Walesin impact negatively to likely is Brexit Toulouse.in HQ corporate Airbus from looks Brexit how imagine only might One term. medium the in critical be will work such win to ability their affects Brexit far How world. and EU UK, the across plants group other with vying investment, corporate internal attract to bidding of rounds existential, sometimes repeated, in engage Bridgend in Ford and Nantgarw Brexit: an effect not a cause a not effect an Brexit: ‘ effects. UK indirect of terms in and directly both economically, term medium and short the in Walesimpact negatively to likely is Brexit ‘

13 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE Housing Kevin Howell Kevin Howell is Director of CIH Cymru.

ousing is crucial to the economic and social What could wellbeing of communities. It is an important Hnational asset, and as such the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) Cymru believes that housing the next five should be viewed as a critical form of infrastructure, alongside transport, utilities and communications infrastructure. years hold for Carl Sargeant AM is to return to the housing brief as the Cabinet Secretary for Communities and Children, a decision which has been warmly received by the housing community. He has already indicated a determination to Welsh housing? meet ambitious house building targets. Many of the challenges over the coming term of government will be heading our way from Westminster as austerity policies continues to impact. Changes to benefits including the local housing allowance and restrictions on under 35’s accessing private sector rentals are just some of the issues we will be grappling with. If social housing cannot house the poor and vulnerable who will? This continues to raise a real moral and ethical dilemma for us all. The revised Wales Bill has arrived, plotting the future journey of Welsh devolution and all in the context of the EU referendum result. The challenges are aplenty and these are just some of CIH Cymru’s housing predictions for the next term.

An increase in affordable housing supply We called on the new Welsh Government to set an ambitious target for housing and they have. A target of 20,000 affordable homes has now been confirmed by Labour although we are yet to find how this is made up. What is really important is that that those new homes reflect what the evidence tells us about local need and income levels. For example, in some areas shared ownership may EXCHANGE be a useful option for those who want to take the first step towards home ownership but it should not be at the expense of genuinely affordable rented Bevan Foundation homes if evidence shows this is needed.

14 ‘ for us all. all. us for dilemma ethical and moral real a raise to continues This will? who vulnerable and poor the house cannot housing social If ‘ happen. happen. to is this if must a is reform Regulatory legislation. require may which reversed, be can reclassification any that ensure working are partners its and Government WelshThe term. long the in strategy and finances its control to ability its and sector housing social the of independence sector,the public both reducing the into landlords social of borrowing and debt the bring will This purposes. Accounting National UK for bodies public RSL’sto reclassify bodies private from will review this that are indications All nations. devolved in (RSLs) Landlords RegisteredSocial of classification the of Statistics National for Office the by review the is issue big Another welcomes. CIH which acquire, to right and buy to right the ending notably most legislation, new Weanticipating are collaboration to build a stronger Walestogether.stronger a build to collaboration effective continued to forward looking is Cymru CIH alone. achieve can industry the in player one demand. increasing meet to more do must but progress, Wemaking areunits. housing affordable additional were 2,218 which of total, in 6,170homes - number this half barely built sector.we 2014-15social In the in be should year,which per of 5,00012,000homes additional an Walesneeds analysis, Holmans’ Alan late the toAccording home. quality decent a afford cannot Waleswho in living people of number huge a still are there successes these despite But support. cross-party had All services. support and homes social in investment public continued and budget people supporting the of protectionprevention, sector,rented private homelessness the strengthening reform, Wales:tenancy in successes policy notable professionalise.grow, toand improve continue to it enable to sector private the for support see to expect we term coming the over and positive, been year.has this laterTakefar stage so landlords by up enforcement the Walesbeginning Smart Rent with continue, to sector private the of strengthening the Wetenants.expect for priorities high all are homes rented private of quality and affordability,security the Increasingtenure. of form permanent their now is sector rented private Walesthe in people many For New legislation legislation New Improving the private rented sector rented private the Improving Improving housing in Wales is not something any something not Walesis in housing Improving some brought has government of term last The

15 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE Health Paul Thomas Dr Paul Thomas is Chair of Sport Wales.

A ‘Team Wales’ approach to health and wellbeing

rowing up in an area where being active, playing The levels of poverty we experience in Wales are a sport and using the facilities and environment blight on our communities and have been central to the Garound me was the natural thing to do was an programmes of successive governments. This has rightly immense privilege. It has served me well throughout my focussed around improving health outcomes, raising career, and I am proud to now be the Chair of Sport educational attainment and job creation, but I have Wales. always wondered if we are using all the levers available EXCHANGE I am a great advocate of the benefits of being active, to tackle poverty? not just for physical health, but for developing Sport and the arts have a huge contribution to make, resilience, raising aspirations, building self-confidence not as a luxury but as a provider of vital life experiences. and the ability to learn soft skills that can be vital for We cannot tackle the issues facing us through working future employment. I want to use my role to ensure that in silos and individually meeting the duties placed on us Bevan Foundation every child, young person and adult has the opportunity by legislation. We have to become greater than the sum to enjoy the benefits of an active lifestyle. of our parts. This means recognising that no one agency

16 are changing, we need to raise the bar.want the now Peopleraise to need wechanging, are people’slives as but well, us served have consumption of models traditional – changing Walesis in activity serve. we that communities the to responsivemore becoming and differently working to open are we if nation the of well-being and health the on impact subsequent the and participation greater achieve truly However,only can we figures. participation our underrepresentedin those for opportunities more for drum the bang to continue will and active physically become to opportunity the Waleshas in person every until satisfied be not will I that surprise no as come should step.It next the take we how be now will challenge The change. and inclusivity of legacy strong a leave to determined am I and anymore, difficult’ ‘too marked box the in placed be cannot activity.This physical with relationship positive lifelong a enjoy to motivation and confidence skills, the with children our provide not then and rates obesity rising about hands our wring Wecitizens.cannot effective and healthy productive, be to skills and experience broadest the with pupils providing about also but success, academic about be solely not Walesshould in Education fun. and inclusive supportive, be must experiences these but people, young and children all for experiences activity physical embed to opportunity the provides curriculum new The age. early an from supported be aspirations. their achieve to tools the with them provide and studies their way, support their find them help to order in people young for has active being and sport that factor” “engagement the utilise to done be can More models. role adult in trust some, for and, skills confidence, build can they where which outlet positive a people young offer can sport how first-hand seen have I important. crucially is change, for force positive a as recognised are activity physical and sport that but gap, participation the tackling only not are we that Ensuring participation. non- through denied are benefits of range whole a that recognise we because but do,to thing right the morally is it because only not this Wedo this. achieve to partners of range wide a in invested have and sport community to approach our of part central a participation in inequality tackling Wemade have sport. through active physically be to likely less are you community in. invest we partners those to and bodies public as delivery and planning our to core be should it usual’, as ‘business to activity on bolt a be not should Tacklingcommunities.poverty empower and inequalities can we together that but solutions, the all holds We all know that the landscape of sport and physical and sport of landscape the that knowWe all must that something is activity physical in Participating poorer a in live you if that recognise Waleswe Sport At possible way. possible best the Walesin serve to partnerships the place in putting genuinely to outcomes, joint and budgets shared collaboration, about talking from move to time is It communities. our for more achieve to collaborating and deliver can we what in confident outcomes, same the towardworking all are we where - Wales’approach ‘Teama - nation our of well-being and health the for approach of type same the Weneed stage. international the on men and sportswomen our support to together comes nation the how Paralympics, and Olympics Rio the during will and 2016 Euro during seen have Wepeople. our including assets, greatest our protecting to all us commits which 2015, Act (Wales) Generations FutureWell-beingof the of form the in population our of lives the improveto policy public of aspects lifestyle. healthy a lead can backgroundsocio-economic and ability ages, all of people that so barriers down breaking involves This engaged. not currently are who those for like look could active being what define to more do to need we but people, young and children of voice the with Youngus providingwith progress Ambassadors some made have we sector sport the In lifestyle. healthier a achieve to them empower to together working than rather want, they think we what with communities providing of guilty Webeen recommendations.have activity physical complex somewhat despite active, more be to need they that know people Most people. inequality. alleviating on impact the maximise can we that so this harness to look should we community,and the of hub the often are clubs Sports engaged. be to need groups of range diverse a needs, local meet services local that ensuring change. to adaptable be money,and for value offer unique, be also must opportunities Sporting Wales.in sport of delivery the in collaboration seek and approach our review to opportunities are these perspective, full half glass a From demand. that meet to innovate and act listen, we that imperative is it and focus community strong a with ways different in participate to In Wales we have a unique opportunity to utilise all utilise to opportunity unique a have Waleswe In to’ ‘doing of attitude the stop to haveFinally, we about serious are we If ‘ activity. physical with relationship positive lifelong a enjoy to motivation and confidence skills, the with children our provide not then and rates obesity rising about hands our wring Wecannot ‘

17 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE Equality June Milligan June Milligan is the Equality and Human Rights Commissioner for Wales.

Towards a fairer Wales

am in my role Equality and Human Rights explains whether Wales is getting fairer, how we Commissioner for Wales because fairness, dignity compare with elsewhere, and where our greatest Iand respect matter. They matter to me, they matter inequalities and challenges lie. in our schools, workplaces and communities and they In looking back over five years, our Is Wales Fairer? matter in our delivery of public services. These values report found some areas of improvement, such as underpin the work of the EHRC to safeguard and reduced hostility towards lesbian, gay and bisexual advance equality and human rights. I am committed to people. It also identified areas of persistent or widening working with all those in Wales who share these values inequalities, evidenced, for example, in the experience and share a practical commitment to making Wales of young people accessing employment, housing or fairer. mental health services. It noted wide gaps between the attainment levels of groups of children at school: for Listening and Learning example between boys and girls; those with or without I have spent my first month as Commissioner listening. special educational needs; those eligible or not for Free Listening as I joined the EHRC Cymru/Wales Committee School Meals; and differences related to ethnicity. It in meeting public service leaders and front-line staff in showed inequalities in access to employment with, for North East Wales to hear about their challenges and example, Muslim people less successful in getting jobs achievements. Listening again at the annual despite being on average younger and better qualified gathering of the Equality and Human Rights than the Welsh population as a whole. Exchange where the focus was on fairness in We know that many people in Wales – nearly one in Welsh workplaces. Those attending heard from four – live in poverty, shown to affect adversely their Swansea University about how they are taking a life-chances, their health and wellbeing and, of course, completely fresh approach to recruiting also Wales’ prosperity. A higher percentage of disabled operational staff for their new campus to avoid people, 27%, live in poverty, as do 38% of those of perpetuating gender imbalance and ethnic minority. occupational segregation – and that it’s working. From a distillation of all the evidence, Is Wales Fairer? And I intend to continue listening, to inform set out seven key challenges, which are to: the formal responsibility I share with the EHRC • close attainment gaps in education Cymru/Wales Committee of developing our • encourage fair recruitment, development and understanding so that we can provide useful reward in employment insight in our statutory advice to the EHRC and to • improve living conditions in cohesive communities Government. During the year October 2014-15, the • increase access to justice and encourage Committee and Wales EHRC team met face-to-face with democratic participation EXCHANGE over 1,000 people to hear their experiences. That’s a • improve access to mental health services and great way of building a sound understanding. support to people experiencing poor mental health • prevent abuse, neglect and ill-treatment in care and Monitoring and Reporting detention As well as listening and advising, EHRC Cymru/Wales has • eliminate violence, abuse and harassment in the Bevan Foundation an important formal role to play in noticing and community recording what’s happening. Our formal reporting The purpose of such evidence gathering is to inform

18 We know that many people in Wales – nearly one ‘in four‘ – live in poverty, shown to affect adversely their life-chances, their health and wellbeing and, of course, also Wales’ surprisingly since recent prosperity. research suggests that more than three-quarters of pregnant women and new mothers experience negative and potentially discriminatory treatment at work. These resources complement the statutory powers that the EHRC has to regulate and enforce equality and human rights law; for example, by and assist public, private and third-sector organisations undertaking investigations and inquiries, assisting or in focusing their efforts to address inequalities. It can intervening in cases in the courts or tribunals, or also assist us in seeing where doing more of the same entering into agreements to ensure compliance with thing might make a difference or where a different the law. approach is needed. It challenges – and also helps – us In Wales, the Older Person’s, Welsh Language and to make Wales fairer, faster. Children’s Commissioners also have distinctive powers and evidence that can inform us about the fairness of Working with Others Wales, as do the Public Services Ombudsman and If we are to have any chance of success, we need to Auditor General. I am keen that the work of the Cymru/ combine and align our efforts. We need to be clear Wales Committee benefits from shared insights, and about what each of us offer, uniquely, and then make also that we work very closely with the Future sure we recognise and complement others’ roles. Generations Commissioner, with her complementary As well as our formal reporting, EHRC provides responsibility for the statutory goal of ‘a more equal authoritative advice and guidance for individuals, Wales’. employers and other organisations. We share expert We will build on the work done during Ann Beynon’s information in an accessible way through our website time as Commissioner that has seen the challenges to ensure a better understanding of equality and identified in Is Wales Fairer? reflected by the Welsh human rights, and improved compliance with the law. Government and Welsh public authorities in setting Material recently published there includes: objectives in their statutory equality duties. • videos and Q&A aimed at demystifying Human EXCHANGE Rights, and Working for a Fairer Wales • guidance tailored for employers and mums-to-be to There is much to do if we want to say in five years’ ensure pregnancy and maternity rights are time that Wales is fairer. Recognising the many people understood and secured. already working hard to make their school, workplace, Such material has a wide reach: a “Power to the Bump” community or public service fairer, my commitment in video of five top tips for pregnant women has already this role is to join with others in working hard to make Bevan Foundation been viewed more than 18,000 times, perhaps not it so.

19 Regeneration Lis Burnett Lis Burnett is Deputy Leader and Cabinet Member for Regeneration and Education at the Vale of Glamorgan Council.

Whole town regeneration: a case study

quiet revolution has been going on in the Vale of Glamorgan. We call it AWhole Town Regeneration and nowhere is it more evident than in Barry – Wales’ largest town. Recent images of tens of thousands of happy visitors returning to the newly-regenerated Barry Island with its eye- catching beach huts and iconic climbing wall are programme to renovate existing schools. Our plentiful. But don’t be misled into thinking that’s all that’s management approach supports and challenges schools happening in the town. to deliver the best outcomes possible for their students. All too often regeneration is narrowly focused on But it’s not all about big projects. urban or physical regeneration schemes in which large Small scale initiatives play their part, such as a book scale economic initiatives are planned in the hope that writing project that has seen mums from Communities they will have a trickle-down effect to the economy of First areas work with story tellers and illustrators to the area. I flinch at terms like ‘worklessness’ which produce publications that would grace any library shelf patronise people, inferring a passive role in their own and which have received praise from Michael Morpurgo future with no thought given to their potential to drive and Michael Sheen in the process. the development or economic growth of their Our belief in local people is also reflected in our community. programmes to help them to grasp employment Whole Town Regeneration in the Vale of Glamorgan is opportunities locally and in the enterprise zones in St holistic and sustainable, and means people and place are Athan and Cardiff. There’s recognition that local small the foundation of work that spans Cabinet portfolios. It businesses are an essential part of the mix and that we includes housing and education as much as economic need to support local start-ups by removing the barriers development and planning. they face. The Inspiring the Vale business start-up scheme Regeneration in Barry includes the provision of safe has now seen forty one young people start their own and stable homes for local people in safe and stable business in an initiative that turned the usual 2:1 male to communities. Not far from the new waterfront female ratio for start-ups on its head. development, on a dockland brownfield site, the People-focussed regeneration has also seen a Castleland renewal area has upgraded hundreds of programme of play area and open space renovation to homes in one of the town’s most disadvantaged support increased physical activity and provided tailored communities. Complementary renovation projects have support for individuals from community well-being EXCHANGE brought a new vitality to the town centre, providing new coaches. In Castleland, working with Communities First shop frontages and accommodation. By working with and the local primary school we’ve transformed Newydd Housing Association, we have delivered previously underused and neglected open spaces into numerous affordable homes on brownfield sites and in safe and vibrant community play areas. The increasingly previously vacant buildings. popular Barry Island Parkrun established by volunteers Bevan Foundation A commitment to delivering top quality education has has just celebrated its 5,000th runner. seen a range of new schools being built alongside a Building the confidence of the town and its people is a

20 key part of our strategy: it is no mistake that our summer but much more serious is the experience of events programme and Christmas lights spectacular are attending so many meetings where nearly as much about local people as visitors. As a result of that all other attendees are male, and where new-found confidence, events are increasingly staged by discussion of our approach is met with local people and organisations using the renovated open puzzlement and a quick return to Building the spaces as a blank canvas. If you haven’t experienced discussing big shiny buildings and city- confidence of the GlastonBarry or drunk your tea from a Barrybados mug centric projects. Although I’m speaking town and its people you haven’t lived! That confidence is also evident in the English I often feel I’m talking a different ‘is a key‘ part of our town’s social media presence: a quick Google, Twitter or language. strategy: it is no Instagram search will bring up hundreds of positive Our regeneration strategy reflects Barry’s mistake that our images of Barry and its island. People say that the town rich heritage and deep-rooted relationship summer events not only looks different but it feels different. with the sea. It chimes with the culture of programme and Barry has rarely been eligible for external funding, so entrepreneurial ambition mixed up with Christmas lights we’ve adopted an innovative approach, merging a range memories of fun-filled seaside holidays. spectacular are as of income streams. The creative use of public and private Much of our thinking echoes that of the much about local sector funds, the strategic use of S106 funds from Tredegar Deep Place Study and Dr Mark people as visitors. developments and partnership working have brought Lang’s recent report for the FSB, ‘On the about a range of whole town initiatives. Nowhere has this Right Track’, both of which call for a much bigger approach been more successful than in the recent emphasis on ‘foundational economics’. It also renovation of the town’s historic hydraulic pump house. unashamedly pays homage to Paulo Freire’s Pedagogy of The Council and Welsh Government worked together to the Oppressed. save the structure, which was then completed in I recently reflected on our approach to regeneration partnership with the private sector. The arrival of award- when I bumped into Jo, a young woman who had first winning Hang Fire Smokehouse’s first restaurant in the been involved in a council project a year ago. Terrified to iconic building was the icing on the cake. meet my gaze in that first meeting, she kept her hoodie Change is not easy and communicating the approach is up and shook from head to foot while she received her often difficult when many see success as a big shiny certificate of achievement. This time we spoke as equals. building - even if it’s empty! A £300 deficit in the first year She was bright, confident and positive about her future. of the beach huts gained far more media comment than For me, Jo represents the change that Whole Town the challenges to our £300m budget. Relentless personal Regeneration has brought to the town. attacks mean there is more likely to be discussion of my The future is bright for Barry. It’s perfectly placed to hair colour than my portfolio. According to critics I’m play a part in the shaping and success of the City Region. supposedly ‘not capable of giving an old cushion a The Council’s new corporate vision is ‘Strong makeover’ or ‘not qualified to peel potatoes for chips on communities with a bright future.’ We don’t think we Barry Island’. Such comments can be easily laughed off, need say more. EXCHANGE Bevan Foundation

21 Transport Mark Barry Mark Barry is Professor of Practice in Connectivity at Cardiff University and runs M&G Barry Consulting. He no longer works for Welsh Government or Transport for Wales, and these are his views and not that of Welsh Government, Transport for Wales or any other organisation. Rethinking Cardiff

have spent much of the last six years involved in The challenge for us all is how we use Metro to some way in what has become known as the South redefine south east Wales and create a new sense of IWales (or Cardiff Capital Region) Metro, initially as an place. This must be broad and include consideration of advocate for the idea from the business community, art, culture, heritage and environment as well as then assessing its impact for Welsh Government and economy and governance. It must also engage with a latterly leading the development of the Metro broad community to ensure legitimacy. programme for Welsh Government until January 2016. In summary, it is the beginning of a fundamental upgrade of Governance the public transport network in South East Wales. We need sort out our regional governance. The The South Wales Metro is perhaps the most argument has been in play since Prof Marquand said transformational public transport project anywhere in some 70 years ago: the UK. It’s not as big as Crossrail in financial terms but “… a more rapid movement of population up and down the impact on the economy of south east Wales will, I the valleys must be encouraged, so as to save the suspect, be proportionally far bigger. In ten years’ time, inhabitants of the northern towns from economic people from across the UK will be asking, “How did they isolation. How that rapidity of movement can best be do that, it’s amazing, Wales is really going places...” This secured should be decided by an authority responsible really is a game changer. for a co-ordinated transport service throughout the

Figure 1. Illustration of potential Metro network from Welsh Government’s, “Rolling out our Metro” in November 2015 EXCHANGE Bevan Foundation

22 Region. No such authority exists … political and social developed using standard UK Treasury guidelines. Whilst institutions have failed to adopt themselves with there is still some debate, there is a growing body of sufficient rapidity to the economic changes that have evidence on the wider regional and agglomerative taken place. One small symptom of this is the economic benefits that can occur. We therefore need a maintenance of local government boundaries which have more nuanced approach to economic development long lost their significance and of authorities which are which reflects commercial realities and the need for inadequate to the larger tasks which need to be more, higher paid jobs across the region, especially in undertaken.” Cardiff which is best placed to attract and support such Since then many others have covered the same ground. employment. We also need to intervene to ensure place So I am just going to say it. We need a statutory regional like Pontypridd, Newport, Merthyr, Caerphilly, Bridged framework to plan, develop and deliver transport, land and Barry can support more regional employment (some use and economic development. The regional “Strategic of which is currently in Cardiff). Development Plan” anticipated in the Wales planning bill Perhaps more challenging is the need to and the “Regional Transport Authority” hinted at in the consider what “economic and regeneration” recent City Deal, provides an opportunity to address this interventions are required in many of our 80-year-old problem. If we don’t do this now, we never smaller towns and communities, many of will. which have suffered years of decline, to ensure benefits can be felt and enjoyed by Economic Development and as many people as possible. If this includes Metro is not all Regeneration interventions that encourage more local and about getting to Quite rightly there is still some debate about the “foundational” economic activities as others Cardiff, it is potential impact of the Metro and how we might deliver have suggested, then let’s do it. However, if ‘about‘ the entire benefits across the entire region. I have always been better connected communities also attract region and how clear that Metro developed as purely a transport project more residents who commute (with we recast its or focussed just on Cardiff would sell us short and those disposable income to spend locally) and economy based characterising it as such are being a little disingenuous. associated development then that also has on the enhanced In purely transport terms the Metro project works - it to be part of the mix. It’s not either / or – it’s connectivity couldn’t proceed unless it has a compelling business case what works. Metro delivers. EXCHANGE Bevan Foundation

23 Figure 2. “Rolling out our Metro” November 2015 I’d like to present an assertive infrastructure history and heritage. This should take example. Many people in Cardiff place across the region in our schools, colleges, pubs, today without a car would not cafes, shops and involve a wide range of community realistically consider working in groups and not be left purely in the hands of central and Pontypridd – the journey is just too local government officials, politicians and business problematic. With only two rail groups. services an hour from the Heads of This “conversation” has to be forward looking and the Valleys, access from Merthyr, confident and one that reflects our shared industrial and Aberdare and Treherbert to geographic heritage. Merthyr and Cardiff are inextricably Pontypridd is only marginally better. linked across time and place. They are also both part of a But Pontypridd is at the physical new bigger place that can only work if it augments the centre of the region and only ten deep-rooted allegiances many of us have, especially miles from Cardiff! across the valleys, to our town or local community. There are too few stations across There is an opportunity that could help us frame all Cardiff and that, combined with these wider discussions and interventions. While the limited bus integration, make access potential for Cardiff to be the 2023 EU Capital of Culture to Pontypridd difficult for many is now in doubt, the scope for the city region to play a people in the city. Imagine living in St leading role is still there. This would not be about new Mellons, Llanrumney or Ely without a car – just buildings or corporate operatic culture, but an commuting to the centre of Cardiff at peak times is opportunity to include arts and community groups from enough of challenge. This restricts Pontypridd’s ability to across the whole region. Each Metro station provides a support employment as most of Cardiff’s 350,000 canvas for a discussion about their role in the wider population cannot easily get there at peak times. region and a debate about our region’s aspirations for its However, with grade A rentals rising in Cardiff city future. centre, some businesses will inevitably look at lower cost floor space in locations with a good catchment of people Keeping an Eye on the Future with the appropriate skills/experience… but where? Whilst we struggle to address decades-old issues we A “Lighter Rail” type network offering faster and more cannot ignore the global trends that will have a profound frequent services to Pontypridd from Cardiff, Merthyr, impact on how we live. For example it is possible that the Treherbert and Aberdare; additional stations in Cardiff age of the personal car is already in decline to be (and so better regional accessibility for thousands more replaced by a new “mobilities” paradigm where people); and integration with bus services across the city autonomous vehicles provide a utility service as part of and region could enable many more people to get to the wider public transport mix. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Pontypridd on a reasonable commute than is possible may mean that we value more “human” activities such as today. In such a scenario, one could imagine Pontypridd arts, culture, music, and study. Climate change and attracting and supporting more employment (and so sustainability may move from being paid lip-service to stimulating secondary activities) and playing a more being at the core of how we live. If we can reflect such important role in the regional economy. This enhanced considerations and scenarios in our thinking, then we regional connectivity will also allow Cardiff to focus on can really create something special in Wales. Metro could the more productive jobs the region needs and enable be a catalyst to accelerate progress. the rest of the region to support some of the employment that is currently located in Cardiff. Metro is Reasons to be optimistic not all about getting to Cardiff, it is about the entire None of this will happen by itself. It needs a proactive region and how we recast its economy based on the lead from the region’s local authorities to support the enhanced connectivity Metro delivers. core Metro project. It also needs wider civic society to be more vocal about the kind of places we want. In doing EXCHANGE Sense of Place so I think the role of Cardiff University and the other What does all this mean to someone in Grangetown, or higher education institutions could also be pivotal in Nelson or Brynmawr? brokering the necessary and often difficult discussions In articulating a response and providing this “meaning”, required across government, local authorities, the we need to go beyond the “harder” economic and business community and civil society. Bevan Foundation regenerative benefits and have a “conversation” that I am optimistic we can, in fact we don’t have a choice relates to our communities, arts, culture, green and we must.

24 Bevan N E W S

Subscribers’ News

Putting mental health on the agenda in the Fifth Assembly: Gofal and the Mental Health Foundation are calling on the new Welsh Government to address six priority areas: Supporting future generations; Improving access to psychological therapies; Reducing inequalities; Tackling stigma and discrimination; Improving mental health funding and outcomes; Cross-government action and accountability. Find out more here: www.gofal.org.uk/Election-2016. Eight proposals put forward for new Devolution of working age benefits Community Housing Cymru’s One Big devolved taxes considered in new report Housing Conference: 7 keynote speakers, On 15th June 2016 the Bevan Foundation The devolution of working age benefits 6 sub plenary sessions, 13 workshops. Gain launched ‘Tax for Good: Devolved taxes – especially for under 25s – needs to be knowledge and be inspired! Sessions for a better Wales’ at a full-booked event given serious consideration according include: What will social housing look like at the Senedd. The paper considers the to the Bevan Foundation’s ‘Making in 20 years’ time?; Examples of how co- power granted in the Wales Act 2014 for welfare work for Wales’ report. It operation has helped to prevent the National Assembly for Wales to recommends that the major benefits – homelessness; How can we empower introduce new devolved taxes. It considers such as Job Seeker’s Allowance and tenants in the future?; Universal Credit – how Wales’ economy, health and the Employment and Support Allowance – mitigating the impact. Join us on 6th-7th environment could be improved through should remain reserved, as should October 2016 at the Metropole Hotel, taxes, levies and tax reliefs through benefits for disabled people. But it calls Llandrindod Wells. influencing the behaviour of businesses, for the National Assembly to be given organisations and individuals. much greater control over the Work and Health Programme Suggested new taxes include a tourism Housing Benefit bill, and to co- commissioning: The process for commissioning the new Work and Health levy, a tax on use of sunbed salons and a commission the new Work and Health Programme is starting now and Rehab workforce development levy to help programme. JobFit is keen to get to know any employers to upskill Wales’ workforce. Dr Victoria Winckler, Director of the organisations who are supporting people The report also looks at the potential for Bevan Foundation said: “Devolution of with disabilities and health issues to devolving existing areas of UK taxation some benefits has been pretty well off improve their life chances and progress which are closely aligned with devolved the agenda but we think it’s time to take a into employment. Please contact us via policy areas, such as Research and fresh look. We’ve concluded that Housing www.rehabjobfit.com. Development Tax Credits, and replacing Benefit, the Work Programme and some them with a ‘Welsh’ version that is based benefits for young people would be Foodbank use at Wales remains at on existing strategy and need. better run by the National Assembly for record levels: Trussell Trust foodbanks in The Bevan Foundation’s Policy and Wales because they fit so closely with its Wales distributed 85,656 emergency food Research Officer, Nisreen Mansour, said: responsibilities. Housing Benefit alone is supplies to people in crisis in the 2015/15 “Our proposals set out how we think the worth £1 billion a year and much better financial year, compared to 85,875 last National Assembly should use these powers, use could be made of it.” year. Over 30,000 of these went to children. Tony Graham, Wales Manager for EXCHANGE but we also have a more fundamental Find out more about the project via the Trussell Trust, said, “Hunger is clearly message about how important this policy www.bevanfoundation.org/current- an issue that continues to have a real lever is to Wales. We hope that this will projects impact on people in this nation, and that’s inspire a wider discussion about what Wales why we’re calling on politicians, the should be doing with its tax powers.” voluntary sector, businesses and Download the report now via communities to work together to tackle Bevan Foundation www.bevanfoundation.org/publications www.bevanfoundation.org the issue.”

25 Showcase Samaritans Sarah Stone is Executive Director for Samaritans in Wales.

Emotional health and the school curriculum

any aspects of modern society impact negatively their first assessed appointment in September 2014. on the mental health and wellbeing of children Samaritans Cymru advocates for parity of esteem across Mand young people. They are born into a complex all stages of life; valuing mental health equally with physical and ever-changing environment; one which we sometimes health. We lobby for measures which would improve struggle to comprehend or understand. They are subject to investment in mental health research, ensure better access 24 hour social networking, online bullying, increasing exam to psychological therapies and identify groups which stress and a materialist, body-image obsessed culture. should be recognised as high priority, such as prisoners and Mental health problems now affect about one in 10 young people. Whilst these policy discussions on mental children and young people – this equates to around three health are vital for achieving suicide reduction, they should children in every class. be accompanied by a wider discussion on the importance In Wales, it is of no surprise that we are witnessing a of emotional health and mental wellbeing. significant rise in precursory factors which can contribute Emotional health or mental wellbeing simply describes to suicidal ideation or intent in adolescents. According to our mental state. Our mental wellbeing can be affected by Welsh Government figures, self-harm is at its highest in five many factors such as unemployment, social isolation or the years, with more than 1,500 children and young people death of a loved one. Sometimes, we may experience a EXCHANGE treated at Welsh hospitals between 2013 and 14. combination of factors and sometimes there will be no Admissions for eating disorders are at a record high among obvious reason at all. Either way, our low mental wellbeing children and young people in Wales; an average 36% during these times can make it feel difficult to cope. Over increase over the last decade. Alongside this, the number time, continued and persistent low mental wellbeing of children referred to Child and Adolescent Mental Health increases the likelihood of developing a mental health Bevan Foundation Services (CAMHS) across Wales has more than doubled in problem. just four years – with a total of 2,500 under-18s waiting for In order to deal with and manage periods of low mental

26 and Technology. In addition to this, one of the four the Technology.of and one this, to addition In Science and Numeracy; and Mathematics Communication; and Literacy Languages, Wellbeing;Humanities; and Health Arts; Expressive Experience; and Learning of Areas excluded. often are lessons health mental and emotional framework, PSE robust a such deliver to schools on pressureincreasing However,. remit with this within schools to available freely also are health, mental wellbeing,or and health emotional on focus which plans safefy.Lesson online and advice careerseating,spirituality, healthy education, sex including topics of range wide and extensive an covers and old) years (5-16 4 1,2,3and Stages Key (PSE)? Education Social and Personal for mean this could what 2021,but by formally taught and 2018 in schools to available be to planned is curriculum new WelshThe byGovernment. accepted been has which reform, curriculum for blueprint a and recommendations of set wide-ranging,radical a Futures’presents ‘Successful titled Report, Donaldson The 4. Stage Keyto Phase Foundation Walesfrom in Arrangements Assessment and Curriculum of Review fundamental a conduct to CB Donaldson Graham Professor asked Lewis, Huw Skills, and Education for Minister then the 2014, March In optimism. with future the face can they so health emotional their of charge take to how people young teach we that important so is it why is This strategies. coping positive develop to how us teach they and help need we when recognise us help they - is health emotional what of understanding an develop to us help can skills these Learning taught. be or learn must we one is it act; intuitive an not is many,it for but some, to life of part natural a like seem may wellbeing mental action take to powerless and helpless lost, feel them make can which events uncontrollable about worrying time less spend to people help can resilience And confident. and empowered feel to impact most the have can they where efforts their put and overcontrol have they that events and situations on focusing energy and time their spend to people allow can It morning. the in bed of out get to reason compelling a having and goals, their and lives their to committed feeling people of likelihood the increasesresilience Developing self-worth. or abilities our on reflection negative a as them viewing of instead growth for opportunities as and from, learned be to lessons as mistakes and failures view to us help can resilience Building resilience. emotional our build and develop to need wellbeing,we Curriculum Reform Curriculum The new national curriculum in Wales will focus on six on focus Waleswill in curriculum national new The at students all for compulsory is Wales,PSE in Currently our managing and resilience emotional our Building ‘ be will people young and children all that ensure to is currciculum new the of purposes opportunities for every child and young person in Wales.in person young and child every for opportunities create to vital is it generation; next the for foundation solid a to contribute would which one and future the for system support student a as viewed be should settings educational in health emotional of promotion The - must Review,we Donaldson achievement. academic increase and problems health mental specific reduce CAMHS, on pressurereduce could which intervention early and prevention promotion, of form a as viewed be should schools in programmes health Emotional need. they skills the with people young and children equip to opportunity crucial the are years school clear; is approach this for case the 14, of age the by beginning problems health mental all of half With costs. economic and social human, reduce can intervention early and prevention in Investment alone. cure than rather prevention on focus primary a placing by health mental reform. health mental within change of culture new a introduce could curriculum new the of opportunities and possibilities the believe and Review Donaldson the supports Wales.Samaritans in people young and children on impact its of understanding our in shift radical a presents this and currciculm the of heart the at wellbeing and health emotional place recommendations These [email protected]. about Samaritans’ inWales work pleaseemail To atwww.samaritans.org/wales. available find outmore andListening),(Developing EmotionalAwareness are Samaritans’ free bilingualteaching resources, DEAL developing confidence, resilience and empathy and resilienceconfidence, developing by wellbeing emotional and mental their 1. Professor Graham Donaldson CB (2015) Successful Futures:Successful (2015) CB Donaldson Graham 1.Professor healthy, confident individuals’ who ‘are building ‘are who individuals’healthy, confident Arrangements in Walesin Arrangements Assessment and Curriculum of Review Independent • • • the of potential the Tofulfil and implement successfully to approach health public a embed Wemust not optional. not and mandatory be should curriculum the on wellbeing and health emotional of inclusion The learning; of (ITT) TeacherInitial in awareness Traininghealth mental and emotional embedding by literacy health mental Walesin schools all across staff teaching new and existing to training Fulfil the potential of the ‘Health and Wellbeing’ areaWellbeing’ and ‘Health the of potential the Fulfil basic ensure and staff teaching in confidence Increase awareness health mental and emotional Provide

’ 1 . ‘ worth. worth. self- or abilities our on reflection negative a as them viewing of instead growth for opportunities as and from, learned be to lessons as mistakes and failures view to us help can resilience Building ‘

27 Bevan Foundation EXCHANGE Subscriber spotlight Catherine A’Bear, Regional Manager, Rehab JobFit

In 140 characters describe the supermarket shelves, it’s not quite as well-known Rehab JobFit: as it should be! A third-sector led partnership between the Rehab Group and Interserve, What are the biggest challenges facing delivering employability services Rehab JobFit ? through our supply chain network At the most immediate level, our biggest challenge will be to win new contracts to deliver What is your role at Rehab JobFit? employability services in the future. That is I am one of our Regional Managers and certainly a challenge which has my focus right my responsibilities are the management now! of our Community Work Placement Looking more widely, it is a huge challenge for contract in South West England and our any organisation to deliver the type of preparations for the next round of employability services which are able to support contracts, specifically the Department people who need possibly long-term and of Work and Pensions Work and Health sometimes intensive assistance, on ever-tightening Programme, but really any of the contracted out budgets. employability services. And whilst it is good to see a UK wide government commitment to a Living Wage, it What do you enjoy most about working at would be great to see more employers embracing Rehab JobFit? a commitment to being the best employer they I work with great people, both within the can be. “Train people well enough so they can organisation and within our network of delivery leave, treat them well enough so they don’t want partners. Rehab JobFit isn’t a large organisation so to,” as Richard Branson says. there is a lot of opportunity for people to get involved in different projects – it’s never boring! If you could invite anyone, dead or alive, to The success of our services is measured by an a dinner party who would you invite? array of statistics and of course these are I discovered this week that Edith New, one of the important. However, for me, it is the individual suffragettes who chained herself to the railings of stories of achievement that make our work 10 Downing Street, was born 5 doors away from enjoyable. The person who lacked all confidence in where I used to live. There is a new blue plaque on their own ability who is now working full- time the wall there to remind us of the sacrifices, caring for others; the person who has recovered courage and strength of that group of women. If I from a life threatening condition who, with our could be a little bit greedy, I would also like to help and support, is now running her own holistic invite Hillary Clinton; I hope she gets the chance to therapy business. It’s great to be a part of the be the first female President of the United States process which helps people to make such a of America. That would be a good start to a dinner difference to their lives. party guest list!

If Rehab JobFit was a biscuit what Why are you members of the Bevan would it be? Foundation? EXCHANGE Now that has got me thinking! Personally I am very At Rehab JobFit we think the Bevan Foundation partial to Mint Club Biscuits. It’s a biscuit where a does a great job, not just in highlighting areas of dependable quality centre is enhanced by the social injustice but also in suggesting practical addition of other ingredients. In the case of a Mint solutions to reduce inequality within Wales and Club that would be the minty flavour and the improve opportunity for all. We want to support Bevan Foundation chocolate; for Rehab JobFit it is the members of that effort, both through our membership and in our supply chain. Also, whilst it is on most our day to day work.

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