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Jet Streams Anomalies As Possible Short-Term Precursors Of Research in Geophysics 2014; volume 4:4939 Jet streams anomalies as the existence of thermal fields, con nected with big linear structures and systems of crust Correspondence: Hong-Chun Wu, Institute of possible short-term precursors faults.2 Anomalous variations of latent heat Occupational Safety and Health, Safety of earthquakes with M 6.0 flow were observed for the 2003 M 7.6 Colima Department, Shijr City, Taipei, Taiwan. > (Mexico) earthquake.3 The atmospheric Tel. +886.2.22607600227 - Fax: +886.2.26607732. E-mail: [email protected] Hong-Chun Wu,1 Ivan N. Tikhonov2 effects of ionization are observed at the alti- 1Institute of Occupational Safety and tudes of top of the atmosphere (10-12 km). Key words: earthquake, epicenter, jet stream, pre- Health, Safety Department, Shijr City, Anomalous changes in outgoing longwave cursory anomaly. radiation were recorded at the height of 300 Taipei, Taiwan; 2Institute of Marine GPa before the 26 December 2004 M 9.0 Acknowledgments: the authors would like to Geology and Geophysics, FEB RAS; w express their most profound gratitude to the Indonesia earthquake.4 These anomalous ther- Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia National Center for Environmental Prediction of mal events occurred 4-20 days prior the earth- the USA and the National Earthquake quakes.5-8 Information Center on Earthquakes of the U.S. Local anomalous changes in the ionosphere Geological Survey for data on jet streams and 9-11 earthquakes on the Internet. Abstract over epicenters can precede earthquakes. Statistical analysis showed that these changes Dedications: the authors dedicate this work to occurred about 1-5 days before seismic the memory of Miss Cai Bi-Yu, who died in Satellite data of thermal images revealed events.12 To connect the listed above abnormal Taiwan during the 1999 earthquake with magni- the existence of thermal fields, connected with phenomena to preparation of earthquakes, tude M=7.3. big linear structures and systems of crust some authors made an attempt to develop a faults. The measuring height of outgoing long- Contributions: Mr. Wu is the first researcher who model of lithospheric-atmospheric-ionospheric discovered the existence of the short-term pre- wave radiation is located to the range of jet links.13,14 These models study a set of possible cursors of strong earthquakes, which described stream. This work describes a possible link short-term earthquakes’ precursors which in the article. The idea of systematic processing between strong earthquakes and jet streams in were observed in the lithosphere, atmosphere, and comparing two types of data (jet streams and two regions. The front or tail ends of jet groups atmospheric electricity, ionosphere and mag- strong earthquakes) for the two territories (China region and the north-western part of the maintain their position for 6 or more hnours i netosphere. Jet streams can be one of such Pacific seismic belt) was proposed by Dr. the vicinity of epicenters of strong (M>6.0) possible precursors. earthquakes in 2006-2010. The probability of Tikhonov. In preparing this article, the authors A jet stream is a rapidly flowing narrow air responsibilities were divided as follows: the first observing a stationary jet stream behavior is stream with almost horizontal axis in upper author processed data of jet streams on weather estimated in 93.6% of the cases on one six- troposphere or low stratosphere, characterized maps, and the second author, as a seismologist, hour map and in 26.7% of cases - on two adja- by hig h vertical and horizontal gradients of was responsible for the seismological part. Mr. cent maps. The median of distribution of dis- wind speed and one or more maxima of Wu done a search and identification of precursor tances between epicenters and the relevant speed.15,16 Wind speed is maximal on a jet axis. effect on weather maps. He also calculated the coordinates of the anomaly of the jet streams. Dr. positions of jet stream corresponds to 36.5 km. Linear sizes of a certain jet stream (length, Estimates of cumulative probability of realiza- Tikhonov prepared two samples of large earth- width, depth) are determined according to quakes from the USGS/NEIC PDE catalog, carried tion of prediction were 24.2% for 10 days, wind speed contour (isotach) of 108 km/h (30 out calculations of the R and T parameters, which 48.4% for 20 days, 66.1% for 30 days, 87.1% for m/s). As usual, a jet stream’s length is several described in the article. The introduction is writ- 40 days, 93.5% for 50 days and 100% during 70 thousand kilometers, its width could be hun- ten by Mr. Wu and the rest of the article was pre- days. The observed precursory effects are of dreds of kilometers and thickness could be 4-5 pared jointly by the two authors. considerable interest for possible use for real km. There a re several types of jet flows: arctic Received for publication: 26 June 2013. short-term prediction of earthquakes. (to the north of 65° N), polar, subtropical, Revision received: 9 December 2013. equatorial etc. The polar jet stream is located Accepted for publication: 14 January 2014. in the mid-latitudes zone (approximately This work is licensed under a Creative Commons between 30° N and 60° N), the subtropical - in Attribution NonCommercial 3.0 License (CC BY- Introduction both two hemispheres in the range of latitudes NC 3.0). approximately between 23.5° and 33.0°.17 The In recent years considerable amount of ©Copyright H.-C. Wu and I.N. Tikhonov, 2013 jet stream flowing over Western Africa is an Licensee PAGEPress, Italy research concentrated on identification of example of equatorial jet stream. In summer it Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4939 coupling between processes in the lithosphere, is loca ted between 10° N and 20° N. doi:10.4081/rg.2014.4939 atmosphere and ionosphere during the periods Each of these atmospheric phenomena cor- of preparation of strong earthquakes. Analysis responds to a specific range of altitudes. A of various local anomalies (electrotelluric polar stream, which we described in this work, field, underground gases, thermal flux, electro- flows at a height of 9-12 km over sea level. of jet streams for weather forecasting. Fronts magnetic radiation in various bands of fre- Another, a weaker subtropical jet stream is of jet streams can cause formation of meteoro- quencies, cloudy structures, concentratfion o located at a height of 11-16 km over sea level. logical fronts and storms. The main commer- electrons in ionosphere, etc.) generally Central part of a jet stream (core), where wind cial use of jet streams at air transport: time focused on search of earthquakes precursors. speed is maximal, has the following size in its A number of perspective directions of research cross-section: 50-100 km horizontally and 1-2 and fuel is saved when planes go in the direc- was outlined. Let us provide some examples. km vertically. Wind speed at the jet stream axis tion of jet streams. The work by Ondoh1 describes the sharp is usually 150-200 km/h (45-55 m/s), and the Earlier18-20 it was noticed that before an increase in concentration of radon in under- maximal measured wind speed was 700 km/h earthquake during a certain period of time ground waters which arises, at least, before (200 m/s).16 almost stationary contour lines of wind speed strong earthquakes. Jet streams are very important for meteorol- appeared at the end of the front or tail of Satellite data of thermal images revealed ogy and aviation. Meteorologists use location groups of jet streams over a seismically active [page 12] [Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4939] Article region. The purpose of this study is to establish Table 1. Strong earthquakes of M>6.0 from the National Earthquake Information Center the location and time of appearance of anom- preliminary determination of epicenters catalog which occurred in the studied region of alous jet streams and to compare these param- China in the period from May 22, 2006 to December 23, 2010. eters with the data of epicenters and time of No. Origin time (UTC) Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude occurrence of strong earthquakes. (degree) (degree) (km) 1 2007/05/05 08:51:39 34.25 N 81.97 E 9 6.1 2 2008/01/09 08:26:45 32.29 N 85.17 E 10 6.4 Materials and Methods 3 2008/03/20 22:32:58 35.49 N 81.47 E 10 7.2 4 2008/05/12 06:28:02 31.00 N 103.32 E 19 7.9 To achieve the mentioned above aim we 5 2008/05/12 11:11:02 31.21 N 103.62 E 10 6.1 used the maps of jet streams were used, pre- 6 2008/08/25 13:21:59 30.90 N 83.52 E 12 6.7 sented at the California regional weather serv- 7 2008/11/10 01:22:03 37.56 N 95.83 E 19 6.3 er,17 and the data of the U.S. Geological Survey/National Earthquake Information 8 2009/08/28 01:52:07 37.70 N 95.72 E 13 6.3 Center (USGS/NEIC) preliminary determina- 9 2010/04/13 23:49:38 33.17 N 96.55 E 17 6.9 tion of epicenters catalog21 within two regions: 10 2010/04/14 01:25:16 33.19 N 96.45 E 7 6.1 AC Figure 1. Example of dynamics of change of a jet stream B (yellow spot), moving at a speed of 108 km/h, according to the data of three meteorological maps at the surface pres- sure of 300 GPa.
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