The Science of Security A Program of the Breakthrough Institute JANUARY 2012 PLANE S, TRAIN S, AND CAR BOMB S THE METHOD BEHIND THE MADNESS OF TERRORISM BY NICK ADAMS, TED NORDHAUS, AND MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER The Science of Security A Program of the Breakthrough Institute 436 14TH STREET, SUITE 820, OAKLAND, CA 94612, PHONE: 510-550-8800 WEBSITE: www.thebreakthrough.org TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................4 I. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................10 II. WHAT HIRABI TERRORISTS HAVE DONE .................................................15 III. WHAT HIRABI TERRORISTS ARE TRYING TO DO ....................................20 IV. A SPECTACLE FOR TWO AUDIENCES (PLUS A THIRD) ............................26 V. THE METHODICAL MADNESS OF HIRABI ATTACK DESIGN ....................36 VI. WHAT HIRABI TERRORISTS ARE CAPABLE OF DOING ............................43 VII. A LIMITED REPERTOIRE ...........................................................................55 VIII. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................67 AUTHORS’ NOTE ........................................................................................69 ENDNOTES ..................................................................................................70 January 2012 The Science of Security EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As we marked the ten-year anniversary of Laqueur wrote that “yesterday’s nuisance has 9/11, we also marked the expiration date of become one of the gravest dangers facing countless predictions that other devastating al mankind.” 3 Many proponents of the “new Qaeda (inspired, financed, or directed) attacks terrorism ” meme became even more emphatic would occur on US soil within a decade of after the attacks, arguing that religiously- that fateful day. Little more than a week after inspired terrorism had become divorced from the atrocities, Attorney General John Ashcroft rationality. 4 Laqueur lamented that “until worried aloud “that terrorist activity against recently , terrorism was, by and large, dis - the United States may increase once this criminate, selecting its victims carefully… country responds to [the] attacks.” Ten It was, more often than not, ‘propaganda by days later, Democratic Senator Carl Levin deed.’ Contemporary terrorism has increas - told Fox News that “biological and chemical ingly become indiscriminate in the choice of threats […] are real. We ought to put re - its victims . Its aim is no longer to conduct sources there.” Republican Representative pro paganda but to effect maximum destruc - Chris Shays of Connecticut was more trench - tion.” Laqueur described the new terrorists as ant: “I am absolutely certain that terrorists, “paranoiac ” and driven by “all-consuming,” if they don’t have access to biological weapons “nonexistent hidden motives” leading to now, will; and I am absolutely certain that “a loss of the sense of reality.” “The outlook,” they will use them. The expertise exists. he concluded, “is poor; there are no known The potential that it has been shared with cures for fanaticism and paranoia.” 5 a terrorist is almost a no brainer .”1 President With the political and expert classes signifi - Bush pushed the possibility of catastrophe cantly aligned in their description of insane, to its logical extreme : “these terrorists … religiously fanatical terrorists determined to are seeking chemical, biological, and nuclear kill millions with weapons of mass destruc - weapons. Given the means, our enemies tion, journalists and the public could do little would be a threat to every nation and, but wait for the next heavy shoe to drop. eventually , to civilization itself .” 2 As they looked around them, they saw vul - Such dire predictions were not confined to the nerabilities everywhere. After rumors of the political class. Terrorism experts and academ - potential for biological or chemical attacks on ics like Walter Laqueur, Jessica Stern, Bruce America’s water supply raced through the Hoffman, Mark Juergensmeyer, and many internet, The New York Times reported on local others had seized upon the notion that a “new governments’ efforts to secure reservoirs and terrorism” was emerging. Even before 9/11, other sources of drinking water: “Helicopters, The Science of Security 4 January 2012 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY patrol boats and armed guards sweep across published a long article suggesting that more the watershed feeding New York City, enforc - should be done — that billions should be ing a temporary ban on fishing, hunting, and spent developing and stockpiling vaccine for hiking. Massachusetts has sealed commuter every disease that terrorists could possibly use roads that run atop dams or wind down to to harm Americans. 9 Never mind that terror - the water’s edge. And Utah has enlisted the ists have shown no capacity to successfully help of the Federal Bureau of Investigation develop and weaponize any of them. to peer down at reservoirs from planes and Despite the perennial warnings about exotic satellites, hoping to spot any weak points.” 6 weapons and targets (warnings that, ironically, By November 1 st , USA Today was reporting offer terrorists tantalizing clues about how and that “scientists and politicians are growing where the United States is vulnerable), mem - increasingly worried about another possible bers and allies of al Qaeda’s hirabi (AKA target for terrorists: the food supply.” 7 Several ‘jihadi’) movement continue to carry out the authors over the years have also flagged same sorts of attacks they executed in the America’s vulnerability to internet attacks decades before 9/11. In 1993, hirabis used a that could significantly disrupt the critical truck bomb in an attempt to topple the World infrastructure upon which our economy Trade Center, the same tactic they used in depends. In a recent report, Washington’s 1996 to bomb the Khobar Towers barracks Bipartisan Policy Center recommended that in Saudi Arabia, and in 1998 to bomb US “defending the U.S. against such attacks must Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. In 2000, be an urgent priority.” “This is not science they used a different vehicle — a small boat — fiction,” they wrote, “It is possible to take to approach their target when they bombed down cyber systems and trigger cascading the USS Cole in the port of Aden, Yemen. disruptions and damage.” 8 A year later, they used different vehicles again, Even as our greatest fears have not come to airplanes, to bomb the World Trade Centers pass, the drive to promote measures eliminat - and the Pentagon. Months later a hirabi ing even the impression of risk or threat has named Richard Reid attempted to bomb a hardly lost momentum. Despite the fact that plane itself with a chemical explosive hidden the United States has developed enough vac - in his shoe. In May 2002, a car bomb killed cine to inoculate its entire population against 14 people at a Karachi hotel frequented by the two most deadly biological agents that Westerners. In October of that year, another terrorists might conceivably learn to produce bomb, placed in a Bali nightclub, killed 202 someday, The New York Times Magazine recently mostly Australian citizens. January 2012 5 The Science of Security EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2004, hirabis detonated ten bombs on four The stark contrast between the hirabi reper - trains in Madrid, killing nearly 200 people. A toire of targets and tactics and the expansive year later, hirabis attacked three trains and a and expanding concerns of journalists, bus in London. Later in 2005, bombs placed politicians , experts, and academics begs expla - at American hotels in Amman, Jordan killed nation. We find that the pattern of hirabi 57 people. In 2007, British police uncovered attacks is not accidental. It is well-suited to a car-bomb plot targeting Glasgow Airport. their primary strategy — one attempting to In 2008, a car bomb killed six people and iteratively grow support for their cause so they injured dozens more outside Pakistan’s Danish can one day gain political power and govern Embassy. Al Qaeda claimed the attack was territory. That their goals are likely delusional retaliation for an offensive political cartoon. does not diminish the rationality of their strat - In September 2009, Najibullah Zazi was ar - egy, the tactics they use, or the targets they rested in the final stages of a plan to replicate select, all of which are chosen to manipulate the Madrid attacks of 2004 in New York the governments they seek to change and the City’s subway system. On Christmas Day publics they seek to recruit. Various internal of the same year, Nigerian Umar Farouk and external constraints on hirabi organiza - Abdulmutallab attempted and failed to down tions also limit their capability, and thereby, a passenger plane over Detroit by detonating the range of tactics and strategies they can a chemical bomb concealed under his clothes. pursue. This paper explores in depth all of The next spring, Faisal Shahzad tried to deto - these factors shaping hirabi activity. nate a car bomb in Times Square, but failed. Months later, in October 2010, al Qaeda PAPER OVERVIEW in the Arabian Peninsula placed explosive devices in cargo planes, but cooperating inter - The paper unfolds in eight sections. We begin national intelligence agencies foiled their by reviewing