Secular trends India Logistics Ravindra Deshpande 10 August 2012
[email protected] +91 22 4062 6805 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited Notes Elara Securities (India) Private Limited India | Logistics 10 August 2012 Initiating Coverage India Logistics Secular trends Inefficient nature of domestic industry 100 Consistent rise in container traffic 18 10 31 80 9 25 Trends of India’s container traffic are showing definitive strength and 60 24 direction aided by strong EXIM traffic. EXIM trade in value terms has 25 15 (%) registered growth of 21.9% over the last five years. The increased port 40 9 49 50 capacities have driven the 10.4% CAGR in tonnage terms and 7.0% 20 35 growth in Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) terms. Evidence shows 0 that India’s EXIM trade is insulated from the gyrations in currency and India China USA Transportation Warehousing we expect the same trend to continue going forward. Inventory Others (including losses) Improving logistics infrastructure & structural drivers Source: Cygnus, Elara Securities Research India traditionally has lacked logistics infrastructure. Logistics cost as a Rising EXIM traffic despite GDP variations (%) per cent of GDP in India is around 13%-14% as compared to 7%- 9% in 40 the developed countries. However, there have been winds of change 30 off late with the government’s thrust upon infrastructure investments 20 and increased presence of organized players. Tax sops, Free Trade 10 Warehousing Zones (FTWZs) and the long-awaited GST once 0 implemented would provide impetus for organized logistics players (10) with national presence. FY91 FY93 FY95 FY97 FY99 FY01 FY03 FY05 FY07 FY09 FY11 Companies beyond Capex; high FCF visibility EXIM Trade growth GDP Growth Interestingly, companies in our coverage (Gateway Distriparks, and Source: Industry, IPA, Elara Capital Research Allcargo) will leave behind a period of huge capex and will look to Container traffic is on the rise as well (TEUs) Global Markets Research monetise their assets.