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INDIA LOGISTICSLOGISTICS Getting Ready for the Long Haul

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INDIA LOGISTICSLOGISTICS Getting Ready for the Long Haul INDIAINDIA LOGISTICSLOGISTICS Getting ready for the long haul GST | DFCC | DMICDC | E-COMMERCE COASTAL SHIPPING | 101 WATERWAYS INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH India Logistics Getting ready for the long haul INDIA | LOGISTICS| Sector Update 9 August 2016 Why read this report? Companies • India’s logistics network is insufficient to support its expected GDP growth of +8% and would require overhauling rather than incremental change. Navkar Corporation • Road and rail transport is under severe pressure while water transport is not developed. Reco BUY Logistics is the backbone of economic growth and investments in road, rail, and CMP, Rs 205 waterways are critical to maintain smooth and efficient movement of goods. Target Price, Rs 288 • With policy support, the significant reorientation of cargo towards rail and coastal Gateway Distriparks shipping, which are more economical than road. Reco BUY • Logistics stocks have already outperformed with significant rerating in earnings CMP, Rs 272 multiples. However, we believe the sector still offers great investment opportunities Target Price, Rs 363 over the long term. Along with higher growth, logistics players will also see improvement in return ratios because of capital efficiency. Container Corporation of India Reco Neutral • We maintain BUY on Allcargo while initiating coverage on Navkar and Gateway CMP, Rs 1435 Distriparks with a BUY recommendation. Target Price, Rs 1530 GST implementation to rationalise tax structure Allcargo Logistics As a result of the new GST tax model, individual state administrative borders are likely to Reco BUY CMP, Rs 186 become irrelevant for most industries, driving rationalization of logistics operations and Target Price, Rs 200 infrastructure. Major changes after GST: (1) consolidation of warehouses, (2) improved efficiencies due to reduction of trade barriers, (3) revaluation of sourcing and manufacturing VRL Logistics decisions, and (4) growth in free‐trade warehousing (FTWZ) and multimodal logistics parks Reco SELL (MMLP). Changing dynamics of the retail industry have shifted focus to the consumer from CMP, Rs 312 the supplier – delivering products in less time is gaining importance. Target Price, Rs 316 Aegis Logistics Container trade to witness secular growth Reco NOT RATED Container cargo now constitutes 20% of total cargo at major ports from 14% in 2004. CMP, Rs 122 Container traffic has remained one of the highest growing cargoes in India historically; we see it continuing to grow at a GDP multiplier of around 1.5x and the shift to containerisation Blue Dart Reco NOT RATED from bulk cargo to persist. Logistic players – Concor, Allcargo, and Gateway – with CMP, Rs 5,680 businesses related to container movement and trade, are uniquely placed to benefit from growing international trade. Transport Corporation of India Reco NOT RATED DFCC: Container train operators to benefit CMP, Rs 355 Dedicated freight corridors (DFCs) and industrial corridors will strengthen India’s logistic Gati Ltd network infrastructure. Development of DFCs would result in enhancing the market share of Reco NOT RATED rail freight as this is a more efficient, safe, and economical option. DMICDC and multimodal CMP, Rs 164 logistics parks (with common user facilities) will give a good chance to private container rail operators to expand businesses with a level playing field. The container train operators will Snow man Logistics benefit significantly with (1) an improvement in the rail network, (2) increase in asset Reco NOT RATED turnaround, and (3) rationalisation of haulage charges. CMP, Rs 73 Sical Logistics Revival of coastal and inland water Reco NOT RATED Coastal shipping accounts for less than 6% of total domestic freight movement, even though CMP, Rs 154 it is approximately 60% more economical, safer, and less polluting than road transport. The government plans to lower India’s logistics costs (as % of GDP) to around 9‐10% from current 13%. To do this, it plans (1) significant investment in waterways, (2) to provide an enabling environment, and (3) to focus on developing waterways with institutional arrangements. This fits in nicely with the government’s mission of a ‘clean India’ and ‘Make in India’ besides reducing cost of transportation, accidents, and environmental pollution. Vikram Suryavanshi (+ 9122 6667 9951) [email protected] Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH INDIA LOGISTICS SECTOR UPDATE INDEX Indian logistics overview .................................................................. 5 Sector Performance: Significant re‐rating, will it sustain? ............. 8 Where does India stand in the logistics space? .............................. 9 Growth drivers for the logistics sector ........................................... 12 Key opportunities emerging in the Indian logistic space ................ 19 Annexure: Technological impact on truck transport ..................... 26 Companies Section Navkar Corporation ................................................................................... 28 Gateway Distriparks ................................................................................... 39 Container Corporation ............................................................................... 47 Allcargo Logistics ........................................................................................ 49 VRL Logistics ................................................................................................ 51 Aegis Logistics ............................................................................................ 53 Blue Dart .................................................................................................... 55 Transport Corporation of India ................................................................... 57 Gati .............................................................................................................. 59 Snowman Logistics ...................................................................................... 61 Sical Logistics .............................................................................................. 63 Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH INDIA LOGISTICS SECTOR UPDATE Indian logistics overview Operationally, logistics is mainly divided into transportation, storage and warehousing, and distribution. Currently, India uses road transport more extensively vs. rail and waterways, thereby increasing cost of transportation. In storage and distribution, contribution of third party logistics (3PL) activity is significantly lower and major focus is on freight forwarding. Transportation Storage Distribution Road Godown Stock‐keeping units Rail Inland container depot (ICD) Express distribution Air Bonded warehouse Unorganised; mainly through Water /Sea Cold storage warehouse small carriers 3PL warehouse India mostly uses the costliest mode of transport – roads Modal mix Cost per tonne per km (Rs) Air Coastal 1% 1.6 6% 1.4 Railway 33% 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Road 0.0 60% Railway Road Coastal Logistics is driven by basic need of transportation & storage In India rail passengers are subsidised 6 Value added India China Russia Freight logistics forwarding 4% 5 10% 4 3 2 Warehousing 25% Transportatio 1 n 61% 0 Passenger Yield (US Cents / Freight Yield (US Cents Passenger‐KM at nominal prices) / Tonne ‐ KM at nominal prices) Source: Industry, World Bank, PhillipCapital India Research Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH INDIA LOGISTICS SECTOR UPDATE Typical flow of material: Multimodal logistics for exim containers W/H: Warehouse, CHA: Custom house agent, CFS: Container freight station, ICD: Inland Container Depot Leading logistics players’ business profile Road Container Express Coastal Project Equipment Transport Rail Logistics Shipping NVOCC CFS FTWZ Cold Chain Engineering leasing 3PL Blue Dart Concor Allcargo Navkar Gateway Arshiya In VRL TCI Gati Aegis Sical Snowman Patel Int. Source: Company, Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates (Note: Based on material revenue contribution) Page | 6 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH INDIA LOGISTICS SECTOR UPDATE Key Financials Company Blue Dart Concor Allcargo Navkar Gateway VRL TCI Gati Aegis Sical Patel Int. Snowman MCap (Rs mn) 134,786 279,825 46,872 29,233 29,566 28,467 27,005 14,386 40,748 8,562 1,667 12,191 EV (Rs mn) 135,936 254,182 51,470 31,812 30,257 32,819 30,375 18,601 41,711 19,813 2,106 13,432 P/E (x) FY16 69.9 35.5 16.9 26.2 27.0 27.8 33.1 39.3 36.0 60.2 20.1 59.2 FY17 72.0 28.0 14.5 19.0 25.0 25.6 31.0 31.1 32.3 30.4 16.5 106.6 FY18 59.4 22.6 11.2 12.8 15.6 19.8 24.8 23.1 24.1 21.2 10.7 68.0 P/B (x) FY16 33.5 3.5 2.1 2.2 3.1 5.5 3.9 3.0 8.8 3.1 1.6 2.8 FY17 26.8 3.1 1.9 2.0 3.0 5.0 3.8 2.9 7.7 2.9 1.5 2.8 FY18 21.4 2.8 1.7 1.8 2.8 4.4 3.4 2.7 6.6 2.6 1.4 2.7 EV/EBITDA FY16 35.6 25.7 5.0 21.2 13.9 11.7 15.4 14.2 22.5 18.4 9.3 26.3 FY17 35.2 20.0 8.2 12.1 14.2 11.0 13.3 12.4 18.8 15.2 8.3 22.6 FY18 30.7 15.0 6.5 8.8 10.4 9.1 11.6 10.6 14.7 12.7 6.3 18.0 P/Cash EPS (x) FY16 49.0 24.3 10.9 22.3 15.6 14.8 19.2 19.2 29.8 13.7 13.5 23.9 FY17 47.6 20.2 9.7 14.9 14.9 13.7 16.6 16.6 25.9 11.4 9.5 23.4 FY18 40.1 16.0 7.7 10.7 10.5 11.6 14.0 13.7 19.9 9.3 6.4 19.6 RocE (%) FY16 40.5 12.7 13.1 8.1 12.5 20.0 13.1 9.2 22.4 4.1 12.2 4.7 FY17 35.1 14.1 13.6 12.4 11.8 20.3 13.3 10.3 22.3 5.4 13.1 5.9 FY18 41.9 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.5 24.8 14.4 11.5 24.7 6.3 16.0 6.6 D/E (x) FY16 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 4.3 0.6 0.3 FY17 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 4.0 0.6 0.5 FY18 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6
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