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2018 Breeders' Cup Insider Guide

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2018 Breeders' Cup Insider Guide 2018 Breeders’ Cup Insider Guide WatchandWager.com WatchandWager.com/mobile Table of Contents Breeders’ Cup Friday Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint 3 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf 4 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies 5 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 7 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint 8 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint 9 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile 10 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf 11 Breeders’ Cup Sprint 12 Breeders’ Cup Mile 13 Breeders’ Cup Distaff 14 Breeders’ Cup Turf 15 Breeders’ Cup Classic 16 2 Breeders’ Cup Friday: November 2nd The $1 million BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Race 5: 5.5 Furlongs on the Turf- Post Time 3:21 p.m. ET / 12:21 p.m. PT 2 – Soldier’s Call (GB) – This Archie Watson-trainee has matured into a solid contender on the European stage. After winning the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot (while toting 129 lbs.), Soldier’s Call won the Group 3 Prix d’Arenberg at Chantilly in September. He won the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster by two-and-a-quarter lengths, and came within a head of winning the five furlong, Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamps Longines at ParisLongchamp on Arc de Triomphe day. That performance against the toughest sprinters on the continent puts Soldier’s Call squarely in the hunt for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. 7 – Shang Shang Shang – This Florida-bred colt graduated to stakes winner status in a huge way by winning the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. He may be the strongest American contender in the race; however, the Norfolk Stakes was the last time that he went to the gate--so we have to make projections based on a limited racing record. We know Wesley Ward is a master with lightly-raced 2-year-olds, and we hope that Shang Shang Shang has developed as well as his rivals. 3 – Well Done Fox (GB) – Richard Hannon brings Well Done Fox to Churchill Downs for the Juvenile Turf Sprint. It may be stretch, considering that he has yet to win a group-level race; however, his efforts have been good enough to earn a share of the minor prizes. One to consider for the exacta and trifecta wagers. Historical Payouts and Pools *The 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint is the inaugural running of this stakes race. No historical payouts exist. 3 Grade 1, $1 million BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Race 6: 8 Furlongs on the Turf- Post Time 4:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. PT 6 – Newspaperofrecord (IRE) – Chad Brown has won the last two runnings of the Juvenile Fillies Turf and three of the last four. You may be familiar with the names Lady Eli, New Money Honey, and Rushing Fall. Brown comes into this year’s race with another absolute beast, this one purchased at the 2017 Tattersalls October Yearling sale for one of his most supportive owners, Klaravich Stables. The Lope De Vega filly has been magnificent in her first two starts, winning both by a six-length margin. The Grade 2 Miss Grillo winner will be the favorite and possibly the likeliest Breeders’ Cup winner of the weekend. 14 – East (GB) – There are five European shippers who drew into the main body of the field and it seems that the one who may be the most overlooked is this daughter of Frankel, trained by Kevin Ryan. This filly is 2-for-2 lifetime (having won at six and seven furlongs), and now tries the mile distance. She has a victory over soft going, so rain forecasted for early in the week could play in her favor. Jamie Spencer looks for his first Breeders’ Cup victory and maybe he gets it here at a big price. 4 – Just Wonderful – World class trainer Aidan O’Brien will be represented here by the daughter of Dansili (GB), who earned a berth into the race with her win last out in the Group 2 Shadwell Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. The filly comes into the race as one of the more experienced in the field, having started six times already; however, she has started only once at the mile distance. Ryan Moore gets the call for the Magnier, Tabor, and Smith homebred. Historical Payouts and Pools JUVENILE FILLIES TURF EXACTA EXACTA TRI TRI SUPER SUPER YEAR TRACK PAYOFF POOL PAYOFF POOL PAYOFF POOL $2 $000 $1 $000 $1 $000 2017 DEL MAR 107.40 1,578 371.60 1,045 1,878.10 600 2016 SANTA ANITA 254.80 1,594 2,326.90 1,055 27,971.40 567 2015 KEENELAND 81.40 1,473 597.70 1,042 3,448.60 546 2014 SANTA ANITA 35.00 1,559 65.90 998 2,736.80 527 2013 SANTA ANITA 158.40 1,738 2,810.30 1,190 27,889.10 633 2012 SANTA ANITA 171.00 1,575 1,791.50 1,085 19,875.40 617 2011 CHURCHILL 106.2 1,524 458.30 1,097 8,334.40 596 2010 CHURCHILL 76.40 1,733 450.60 1,320 6,610.60 666 2009 SANTA ANITA 76.20 1,622 479.40 1,182 7,358.00 620 2008 SANTA ANITA 175.10 1,442 898.90 1,086 5,796.00 513 2007 MONMOUTH 2006 CHURCHILL 2005 BELMONT 2004 LONE STAR PARK 2003 SANTA ANITA 2002 ARLINGTON 2001 BELMONT AVERAGE 124.19 1,584 1,025.11 1,110 11,189.84 589 4 Grade 1, $2 million BC Juvenile Fillies Race 7: 8.5 Furlongs on the Dirt - Post Time: 4:40 p.m. ET / 1:40 p.m. PT 4 – Restless Rider – This Distorted Humor filly ran on strong down the stretch to clinch a berth here in the Grade 1 Alcibiades over this distance at Keeneland four weeks ago. There should be pace for Restless Rider to sit off from a good post – she broke from stall three of 14 last out – with regular rider Brian Hernandez, Jr., aboard. Restless Rider started her career 2-for-2 over the Churchill dirt in June and fared well against several of Friday’s foes in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga two starts back. 5 – Cassies Dreamer – This Barclay Tagg-trained filly boasts impressive bloodlines (by Flatter out of the War Front mare Chilbolton) in her first two-turn outing. Her last two starts haven’t been the cleanest, but she doesn’t need to be upfront to win. Expect Manny Franco to settle Cassies Dreamer back early on as she navigates the first half of the race before they turn for home. The best closer in the field, Cassies Dreamer should have pace to run into. If she can avoid gate contact at the start, she’ll be able to sit comfortably towards the middle of the pack. 10 – Bellafina – This California shipper comes to Churchill following a convincing win in the Grade 1 Chandelier, which covered this same distance at Santa Anita. A three-time graded stakes winner, the Simon Callaghan-trained filly by Quality Road boasts some of the best form figures in the field. She’ll be up front from the start, but drawing the far post may compromise Bellafina’s tactical ability just slightly in the early stages. Being the best of the front-runners gives her a chance at hanging on for a piece of the board. Historical Payouts and Pools JUVENILE FILLIES EXACTA EXACTA TRI TRI SUPER SUPER YEAR TRACK PAYOFF POOL PAYOFF POOL PAYOFF POOL $2 $000 $1 $000 $1 $000 2017 DEL MAR 392.2 1,906 4,580 1,284 29,371.00 642 2016 SANTA ANITA 723.6 1,679 2,347 1,065 25,892.40 533 2015 KEENELAND 13.4 1,338 60 1,007 195.40 511 2014 SANTA ANITA 1557.2 1,698 11,309 1,280 97,620.00 623 2013 SANTA ANITA 739.2 1,877 3,710.30 1,338 14,718.60 662 2012 SANTA ANITA 26.6 1,202 57.60 837 118.60 442 2011 CHURCHILL 24.8 1,699 50.60 1,238 1,127.70 616 2010 CHURCHILL 57.80 1,556 616.60 1,165 4,116.30 569 2009 SANTA ANITA 72.20 1613 407.90 1,112 7,384.90 567 2008 SANTA ANITA 24.50 1643 77.90 1,279 2,538.90 619 2007 MONMOUTH 54.20 2,528 243.00 1,796 3,280.80 815 2006 CHURCHILL 50.80 2,277 298.80 2,226 4,690.10 748 2005 BELMONT 54.50 2,502 90.75 2,070 881.00 621 2004 LONE STAR PARK 29.00 2,684 174.20 2,159 780.60 684 2003 SANTA ANITA 63.00 2814 343.10 2,210 2,995.10 570 2002 ARLINGTON 12.80 2,494 15.50 2,225 94.70 634 2001 BELMONT 768.00 2,686 1,911.50 2,249 AVERAGE 274.34 2,012 1,546.70 1,561 12,237.88 616 5 Grade 1, $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Race 8: 8 Furlongs on the Turf - Post Time 5:22 p.m. ET / 2:22 p.m. PT 14-- Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) -- Breaking on the outside of this group of 14 could give this Euro-invader the space he needs. Aidan O’Brien sends this Street Sense colt out with Lasix just on the heels of the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. He has only been out of the money once in six career starts.
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