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2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

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This issue brought to you by 2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin OCTOBER 28, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 21 No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle 2020 Senate Ratings is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results. While it’s possible that Donald J. Trump shocks the world again, as Toss-Up a mass of voters that coyly hid from dozens of pollsters deliver him a Daines (R-Mont.) Perdue (R-Ga.)# second term, that’s not the most likely outcome. Ernst (R-Iowa) With less than a week to go, Joe Biden has the advantage over Trump in the race for the White House. Most of the polling at the national, Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican state, and House district level paints the same picture of a slumping Collins (R-Maine) Graham (R-S.C.) Trump. The president is underperforming in states and districts across McSally (R-Ariz.) Loeffl er (R-Ga.)# the country compared to his own marks four years ago, leading to Tillis (R-N.C.) KS Open (Roberts, R) an Electoral College battlefield that would have been practically unimaginable a few years ago. Lean Democratic Lean Republican As Biden maintains narrow but consistent edges in Georgia and Gardner (R-Colo.) Cornyn (R-Texas) North Carolina, those states shift to Tilt Democratic. Texas moves to Toss- Peters (D-Mich.) Jones (D-Ala.) up, leaving the former vice president with a 350-125 advantage in the Electoral College. At this point, a Biden landslide is at least as likely as a Sullivan (R-Alaska)# Trump victory. Likely Democratic Likely Republican The president’s struggles at the top of the ticket are contributing to Solid Democratic Solid Republican GOP problems down the ballot. Trump’s inability to match or exceed 2016 in key states has widened NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) the Senate battlefield, giving Democrats multiple paths to the majority. Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) While the fight for the Senate is more competitive than the presidential Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) race, Democrats are most likely to net 4-6 seats and gain control. With Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) so many competitive races in GOP-held states, higher-than-expected Democratic turnout could boost those gains even higher. Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) In the House, Democrats are poised to expand their majority. With a Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) projected gain of 14-20 House seats, Democrats are on track to repeat the Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) 2006 and 2008 cycles, when the party built on significant midterm gains Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) to seal the capture of two entire branches of government two years later. While Trump’s passable second debate performance might have Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-Idaho) stopped the bleeding for the GOP, ongoing news of another surge of Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) coronavirus cases is not beneficial to the president, who needs voters GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) to focus on a less appealing alternative to him. And a significant 116th Congress 53 47 spending advantage in the final days could push close races toward Not up this cycle 30 35 Democrats. Four years later, the shock of Trump’s victory still casts a shadow Currently Solid 11 10 over any political projections. But that’s not reason enough to shun data- Competitive 12 2 driven analysis. Even if the polls are a little off, Democrats are poised to Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans have a good set of elections. InsideElections.com Senate Report Shorts Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). Not much has changed in the Yellowhammer State — Jones is still well behind former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville despite vastly 2020 Presidential Ratings outspending the Republican on TV. With Trump poised to carry the state (Electoral Votes) by double digits as well, it’s hard to see how Jones wins, though some Democrats haven’t completely written him off yet, believing that if his Toss-Up (63) field operation can turn out enough Black voters he could have a chance. Iowa (6) Maine 2nd (1) Ohio (18) Texas (38)# Lean Republican. Tilt Democratic (71) Tilt Republican Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network, Oct. 21-23 (LVs) — General Arizona (11) Florida (29) Election ballot: Tuberville over Jones 55%-41%. Moore Information (R) for Tuberville Campaign, Oct. 11-14 (LVs) — Georgia (16)# North Carolina (15)# General Election ballot: Tuberville over Jones 55%-40%. Lean Democratic (47) Lean Republican (22) FM3 (D) for Jones Campaign, Oct. 11-14 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Alaska (3) Missouri (10) Jones over Tuberville 48%-47%. Nebraska 2nd (1) Wisconsin (10) Kansas (6) Montana (3) Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%). The Last Frontier Likely Democratic (20) Likely Republican (15) is hosting much closer races for president, Senate, and the House than Minnesota (10) Nevada (6) South Carolina (9) almost anyone would have expected. But it looks like Trump, Sullivan, and New Hampshire (4) Utah (6) At-Large Rep. Don Young all have narrow leads in the final stretch of the Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88) campaign. Independent Al Gross, who is running with the support of the California (55) New Mexico (5) Alabama (9) South Dakota (3) national and state Democratic parties, is running a credible, well-financed Colorado (9) New York (29) Arkansas (6) Tennessee (11) campaign, but the last few percentage points he needs are incredibly difficult. A Gross victory wouldn’t be a complete shock, but he’s still the Connecticut (7) Oregon (7) Idaho (4) West Virginia (5) underdog. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Delaware (3) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11) Wyoming (3) Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect our Care, Oct. 19-20 (LVs) — General D.C. (3) Vermont (3) Kentucky (8) Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 44%-41%, Howe (AIP) 5%. Hawaii (4) Virginia (13) Louisiana (8) Change Research (D) for Gross Campaign, Oct. 16-19 (LVs) — General Illinois (20) Washington (12) Mississippi (6) Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 47%-44%, Howe (AIP) 3%. Maine At-Large (2) Nebraska At-Large (2) New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 9-14 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 45%-37%, Howe (AIP) 10%. Maine 1st (1) Nebraska 1st (1) Maryland (10) Nebraska 3rd (1) Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. Both parties Massachusetts (11) North Dakota (3) believe this race is tighter than the public polling suggests, but retired New Jersey (14) Oklahoma (7) astronaut Mark Kelly has maintained a persistent advantage over 270 needed to win GOP DEM McSally as Joe Biden has kept a smaller but stable lead over Trump. A McSally win isn’t out of the question, but it would take a substantial 2016 Results 304 227 Trump win to get her there, and that’s looking less likely by the day. Tilt 2020 Ratings 125 350 Democratic. Toss-up 63 OH Predictive Insights, Oct. 22-25 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly # moved benefi ting Democrats, *moved benefi ting Republicans over McSally 50%-45%. Continued on page 3 Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 October 28, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 Landmark Communications for WSB-TV, Oct. 21 (LVs) — All-party special Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) for American Greatness PAC, Oct. 19- election ballot: Warnock (D) 33%, Collins (R) 27%, Loeffler (R) 24%. 22 (LVs) — General Election ballot: McSally over Kelly 50%-47%. Ipsos/Reuters, Oct. 14-21 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over Iowa. Joni Ernst (R), elected 2014 (51%). The purest toss-up of 2020 McSally 51%-43%. remains such. Neither Democrats nor Republicans claim to have the advantage in this race, with both viewing it as eminently winnable. Joe Colorado. Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). At this point, it’s Biden, who is tied with Trump in the polls, will travel here in the final not clear what Gardner would have to do to win his race. That he voted week to boost his own candidacy and Democrat Theresa Greenfield’s. for Justice Amy Coney Barrett suggests he has little interest in seriously One thing in Greenfield’s favor: Democrats will outspend Republicans disentangling himself from the president, who will lose here by double- 2:1 in the final week of the race. Toss-up. digits, and drag Gardner down with him. Lean Democratic. Emerson College, Oct. 19-21 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ernst over Morning Consult, Oct. 11-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hickenlooper Greenfield 50%-46%. over Gardner 50%-42%. RMG Research for Political IQ, Oct. 15-21 (LVs) — General Election ballot: RBI Strategies & Research (D), Oct. 12-16 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Greenfield over Ernst 46%-43%. Hickenlooper over Gardner 53%-39%. New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 18-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: RMG Research for Political IQ, Oct. 9-15 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ernst over Greenfield 45%-44%.
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