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2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin OCTOBER 28, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 21 No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle 2020 Senate Ratings is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results. While it’s possible that Donald J. Trump shocks the world again, as Toss-Up a mass of voters that coyly hid from dozens of pollsters deliver him a Daines (R-Mont.) Perdue (R-Ga.)# second term, that’s not the most likely outcome. Ernst (R-Iowa) With less than a week to go, Joe Biden has the advantage over Trump in the race for the White House. Most of the polling at the national, Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican state, and House district level paints the same picture of a slumping Collins (R-Maine) Graham (R-S.C.) Trump. The president is underperforming in states and districts across McSally (R-Ariz.) Loeffl er (R-Ga.)# the country compared to his own marks four years ago, leading to Tillis (R-N.C.) KS Open (Roberts, R) an Electoral College battlefield that would have been practically unimaginable a few years ago. Lean Democratic Lean Republican As Biden maintains narrow but consistent edges in Georgia and Gardner (R-Colo.) Cornyn (R-Texas) North Carolina, those states shift to Tilt Democratic. Texas moves to Toss- Peters (D-Mich.) Jones (D-Ala.) up, leaving the former vice president with a 350-125 advantage in the Electoral College. At this point, a Biden landslide is at least as likely as a Sullivan (R-Alaska)# Trump victory. Likely Democratic Likely Republican The president’s struggles at the top of the ticket are contributing to Solid Democratic Solid Republican GOP problems down the ballot. Trump’s inability to match or exceed 2016 in key states has widened NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) the Senate battlefield, giving Democrats multiple paths to the majority. Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) While the fight for the Senate is more competitive than the presidential Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) race, Democrats are most likely to net 4-6 seats and gain control. With Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) so many competitive races in GOP-held states, higher-than-expected Democratic turnout could boost those gains even higher. Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) In the House, Democrats are poised to expand their majority. With a Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) projected gain of 14-20 House seats, Democrats are on track to repeat the Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) 2006 and 2008 cycles, when the party built on significant midterm gains Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) to seal the capture of two entire branches of government two years later. While Trump’s passable second debate performance might have Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-Idaho) stopped the bleeding for the GOP, ongoing news of another surge of Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) coronavirus cases is not beneficial to the president, who needs voters GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) to focus on a less appealing alternative to him. And a significant 116th Congress 53 47 spending advantage in the final days could push close races toward Not up this cycle 30 35 Democrats. Four years later, the shock of Trump’s victory still casts a shadow Currently Solid 11 10 over any political projections. But that’s not reason enough to shun data- Competitive 12 2 driven analysis. Even if the polls are a little off, Democrats are poised to Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans have a good set of elections.

InsideElections.com Senate Report Shorts

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). Not much has changed in the Yellowhammer State — Jones is still well behind former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville despite vastly 2020 Presidential Ratings outspending the Republican on TV. With Trump poised to carry the state (Electoral Votes) by double digits as well, it’s hard to see how Jones wins, though some Democrats haven’t completely written him off yet, believing that if his Toss-Up (63) field operation can turn out enough Black voters he could have a chance. Iowa (6) Maine 2nd (1) Ohio (18) Texas (38)# Lean Republican. Tilt Democratic (71) Tilt Republican Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network, Oct. 21-23 (LVs) — General Arizona (11) (29) Election ballot: Tuberville over Jones 55%-41%. Moore Information (R) for Tuberville Campaign, Oct. 11-14 (LVs) — Georgia (16)# North Carolina (15)# General Election ballot: Tuberville over Jones 55%-40%. Lean Democratic (47) Lean Republican (22) FM3 (D) for Jones Campaign, Oct. 11-14 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Alaska (3) Missouri (10) Jones over Tuberville 48%-47%. Nebraska 2nd (1) Wisconsin (10) Kansas (6) Montana (3)

Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%). The Last Frontier Likely Democratic (20) Likely Republican (15) is hosting much closer races for president, Senate, and the House than Minnesota (10) Nevada (6) South Carolina (9) almost anyone would have expected. But it looks like Trump, Sullivan, and New Hampshire (4) (6) At-Large Rep. all have narrow leads in the final stretch of the Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88) campaign. Independent Al Gross, who is running with the support of the California (55) (5) Alabama (9) South Dakota (3) national and state Democratic parties, is running a credible, well-financed Colorado (9) (29) Arkansas (6) Tennessee (11) campaign, but the last few percentage points he needs are incredibly difficult. A Gross victory wouldn’t be a complete shock, but he’s still the Connecticut (7) Oregon (7) Idaho (4) West Virginia (5) underdog. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Delaware (3) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11) Wyoming (3) Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect our Care, Oct. 19-20 (LVs) — General D.C. (3) Vermont (3) Kentucky (8) Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 44%-41%, Howe (AIP) 5%. Hawaii (4) Virginia (13) (8) Change Research (D) for Gross Campaign, Oct. 16-19 (LVs) — General Illinois (20) Washington (12) Mississippi (6) Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 47%-44%, Howe (AIP) 3%. Maine At-Large (2) Nebraska At-Large (2) New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 9-14 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 45%-37%, Howe (AIP) 10%. Maine 1st (1) Nebraska 1st (1) Maryland (10) Nebraska 3rd (1) Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. Both parties Massachusetts (11) North Dakota (3) believe this race is tighter than the public polling suggests, but retired New Jersey (14) Oklahoma (7) astronaut Mark Kelly has maintained a persistent advantage over 270 needed to win GOP DEM McSally as Joe Biden has kept a smaller but stable lead over Trump. A McSally win isn’t out of the question, but it would take a substantial 2016 Results 304 227 Trump win to get her there, and that’s looking less likely by the day. Tilt 2020 Ratings 125 350 Democratic. Toss-up 63 OH Predictive Insights, Oct. 22-25 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly # moved benefi ting Democrats, *moved benefi ting Republicans over McSally 50%-45%. Continued on page 3

Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] .com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin

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2 October 28, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 Landmark Communications for WSB-TV, Oct. 21 (LVs) — All-party special Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) for American Greatness PAC, Oct. 19- election ballot: Warnock (D) 33%, Collins (R) 27%, Loeffler (R) 24%. 22 (LVs) — General Election ballot: McSally over Kelly 50%-47%. Ipsos/, Oct. 14-21 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over Iowa. Joni Ernst (R), elected 2014 (51%). The purest toss-up of 2020 McSally 51%-43%. remains such. Neither Democrats nor Republicans claim to have the advantage in this race, with both viewing it as eminently winnable. Joe Colorado. Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). At this point, it’s Biden, who is tied with Trump in the polls, will travel here in the final not clear what Gardner would have to do to win his race. That he voted week to boost his own candidacy and Democrat Theresa Greenfield’s. for Justice Amy Coney Barrett suggests he has little interest in seriously One thing in Greenfield’s favor: Democrats will outspend Republicans disentangling himself from the president, who will lose here by double- 2:1 in the final week of the race. Toss-up. digits, and drag Gardner down with him. Lean Democratic. Emerson College, Oct. 19-21 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ernst over Morning Consult, Oct. 11-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hickenlooper Greenfield 50%-46%. over Gardner 50%-42%. RMG Research for Political IQ, Oct. 15-21 (LVs) — General Election ballot: RBI Strategies & Research (D), Oct. 12-16 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Greenfield over Ernst 46%-43%. Hickenlooper over Gardner 53%-39%. New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 18-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: RMG Research for Political IQ, Oct. 9-15 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ernst over Greenfield 45%-44%. Hickenlooper over Gardner 51%-42%. Monmouth Univ., Oct. 15-19 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Greenfield over Ernst 49%-47%. Georgia. David Perdue (R), elected 2014 (53%). Jan. 5 runoff (if necessary). Republicans began this cycle laughing at the notion that Kansas. Open; Pat Roberts (R), not seeking re-election. State Jon Ossoff, the 33-year-old documentary filmmaker most famous for Sen. Barbara Bollier is doing almost everything right to put Democrats losing a special election, could mount a serious challenge to Perdue, a in position to win a Senate race in Kansas for the first time in decades. former Fortune 500 CEO. They’re not laughing now. With Biden running It helps that GOP Rep. Roger Marshall won’t win any awards for his strong in Georgia, Perdue is at best tied and at worst a few points behind campaign and Trump’s 20-point victory in 2016 has winnowed to a low Ossoff. Luckily for the Republican, it takes an absolute majority to win to mid-single digit advantage. This race is close and probably depends this race, and with Libertarian Shane Hazel consistently drawing low- on Trump maintaining a political pulse to the end. Tilt Republican. single digit support, it’ll be hard for Ossoff to get more than 50 percent New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 18-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: on the November ballot. But if Biden overperforms expectations even Marshall over Bollier 46%-42%, Buckley (L) 4%. a little, he could conceivably drag Ossoff over the finish line with him, Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect Our Care, Oct. 19-20 (LVs) — General a possibility that would have seemed foreign just even a month or two Election ballot: Bollier and Marshall tied at 43%, Buckley (L) 5%. ago. Handicapping the runoff will depend on Senate control and the co/efficient (R) for Keep Kansas Great PAC, Oct. 18-20 (LVs) — General presidential outcome. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Election ballot: Marshall over Bollier 51%-39%, Buckley (L) 2%. Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Oct. 23-26 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ossoff over Perdue 51%-45%, Hazel (L) 2%. Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), YouGov for CBS, Oct. 20-23 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Perdue over 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Marine Corps Ossoff 47%-46%. lieutenant colonel Amy McGrath raised more than $90 million through Univ. of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Oct. 14-23 (LVs) — Oct. 14 in her challenge to the majority leader and Trump is likely to win General Election ballot: Ossoff over Perdue 46%-45%, Hazel (L) 4%. Kentucky by half of his 30-point margin in 2016. But that’s likely to be enough to help McConnell, who likely benefits from Justice Amy Coney Georgia. Kelly Loeffler (R) appointed Jan.6, 2020. Special Barrett’s confirmation because it nationalizes the race and reminds voters election Nov. 3 (all candidates), Jan. 5 runoff (if necessary). With Rev. why they want GOP presidents and majorities. While McConnell won by Raphael Warnock a virtual lock for one of the two runoff spots, it’s a 16 points in 2014, don’t be surprised if he wins by half of that this time. melee between Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins for second place and the Solid Republican. chance to carry the GOP banner into January. The polling is tight, but Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network, Oct. 19-20 (LVs) — General Republicans believe that Loeffler’s massive spending advantage gives Election ballot: McConnell over McGrath 50%-40%, Barron (L) 5%. her the edge in the final week. It’s not clear which Republican would be Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Oct. 12-15 (LVs) — General Election stronger in a runoff against Warnock — both carry significant baggage ballot: McConnell over McGrath 51%-42%, Barron (L) 4%. and would certainly not be shoo-ins, despite Democrats’ abysmal record in Georgia runoffs. Warnock has enjoyed millions of dollars Louisiana. (R), elected 2014 (56%). Dec. 5 runoff (if of unchallenged positive ad time while Republicans fight amongst necessary). Cassidy is almost assuredly coming back to the Senate next themselves. Move from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. year. But it may take him a little longer than some of his colleagues. If Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Oct. 23-26 (LVs) — All-party special election he can’t get over 50 percent of the vote in November, when he’ll appear ballot: Warnock (D) 48%, Collins (R) 23%, Loeffler (R) 22%, Lieberman (D) on the ballot with 15 candidates from both parties, he will be forced into 2%, Tarver (D) 1%. a December runoff against the second-place finisher, most likely to be Univ. of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Oct. 14-32 (LVs) — Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins, who has the support of the state and All-party special election ballot: Warnock (D) 34%, Collins (R) 21%, Loeffler national Democratic parties. Solid Republican. (R) 20%, Lieberman (D) 4%, Slowinski (L) 3%, Tarver (D) 1%. Continued on page 4

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 28, 2020 3 Continued from page 3 North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). Republicans had hoped that the scandal surrounding Cal Cunningham’s Maine. Susan Collins (R), elected 1996 (49%), 2002 (58%), 2008 affair would be enough to pull a floundering Tillis back into serious (61%) and 2014 (69%). Collins may have pulled even with Democratic contention, but it’s not clear voters agree. Cunningham has retained his nominee and state advantage in the polls despite a sharp drop in his favorability ratings. House Speaker Sara More importantly, Joe Biden is consistently polling ahead of Trump, Gideon in the polls and it’s hard to see how a Biden victory doesn’t translate to a win after trailing for for Cunningham. It doesn’t hurt that Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is several months, but charging toward a double-digit victory in his race either. Tilt Democratic. it probably won’t Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect Our Care, Oct. 26-27 (RVs) — General be enough to save Election ballot: Cunningham over Tillis 47%-44%. her due to Maine’s YouGov for CBS, Oct. 20-23 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham ranked-choice voting over Tillis 49%-43%. system. With neither Ipsos for Reuters, Oct. 14-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham candidate likely Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom and Tillis tied at 47%. Susan Collins to win a majority Morning Consult, Oct. 11-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham outright, we may not know the results of this race on election night — in over Tillis 48%-42%. 2018 it took more than a week to declare 2nd District Rep. the winner in his ranked-choice election — but both parties agree that South Carolina. Lindsey Graham (R), elected 2002 (54%), 2008 Gideon stands to benefit from the reallocation of votes from third-party (58%) and 2014 (55%). Former state Democratic Party Chairman Jaime candidates. Tilt Democratic. Harrison has put together one of the most memorable campaigns of the cycle. The question is whether he’ll actually defeat the senator. Since no Democrat Michigan. Gary Peters (D), elected 2014 (55%). Despite running has won statewide in at least a decade, a lot of things have to go right for a well-funded campaign highly heralded by national Republicans, Harrison to win. Trump’s underperformance at the top of the ticket is helping, John James has been unable to demonstrate enough crossover support along with Graham being slow to take the race seriously. But the senator may to outpace President Trump enough to win. With Biden poised to win have sounded the alarm just in time for Republicans to bail him out. Now the state by 6-8 points, it’s unclear how James gets over the finish line, Democrats are left to boost the candidacy of Constitution Party candidate Bill though Peters had to labor to increase and solidify his standing in the Bledsoe, who dropped out of the race but is still on the ballot. He’s polling in state. Lean Democratic. the low single digits but probably needs to get closer to 6-8 percent to lower Gravis Marketing, Oct. 24 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Peters over Harrison’s threshold for victory to the high 40s. Tilt Republican. James 52%-41%. Starboard Communications (R) for Security is Strength PAC, Oct. 26 (LVs) Public Policy Polling (D) for American Bridge PAC, Oct. 21-22 (LVs) — — General Election ballot: Graham over Harrison 52%-43%, Bledsoe 3%. General Election ballot: Peters over James 52%-43%. Morning Consult, Oct. 11-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Harrison , Oct. 17-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Peters over James over Graham 47%-45%. 49%-41%. brilliant corners Research & Strategies (D) for Harrison campaign, Oct. 11-16 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Harrison over Graham 47%-45%, Bledsoe 3%. Mississippi. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), appointed April 2018, New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 9-14 (LVs) — General Election ballot: elected 2018 special (54%). Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy is Graham over Harrison 46%-40%, Bledsoe 4%. running the strongest campaign of any Democrat since Ronnie Musgrove in 2008, but it probably won’t be enough to pull out a win in this deeply Texas. John Cornyn (R), elected 2002 (55%), 2008 (65%) and 2014 polarized state. Solid Republican. (62%). Texas has surpassed 90 percent of total 2016 turnout with several Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Oct. 23-26 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hyde- days left to go in early voting. That kind of turnout spike makes the race Smith over Espy 52%-44%, Edwards (L) 2%. more difficult to predict, but here’s what we do know: Biden is running close to or even with Trump, and if Biden does manage to win, it’s not Montana. Steve Daines (R), elected 2014 (58%). Republicans unreasonable that he takes Hegar with him, much like Beto O’Rourke have consistently shown the senator with a narrow but consistent lead swept in a whole raft of down-ballot Democrats in 2018 with his strong even with Trump struggling to outpace Biden by more than single digits. performance at the top of the ticket. That’s not the likeliest outcome at Democrats are convinced Gov. Steve Bullock is locked in an even race. this point, but it’s a possibility, and Democrats maintain that this race has Similar to other competitive races, Bullock likely needs Biden to come gotten better for them in the closing weeks. Lean Republican. within 4-5 points of Trump in order to win, and the president might start Data for Progress (D), Oct. 22-25 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cornyn the last week just north of that. Toss-up. over Hegar 48%-46%. New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 18-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 20-25 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Daines over Bullock 49%-46%. Cornyn over Hegar 48%-38%. Strategies360 for NBC Montana, Oct. 15-20 (LVs) — General Election YouGov/Univ. of , Oct. 13-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: ballot: Daines over Bullock 48%-47%. Cornyn over Hegar 49%-42%. RMG Research for Political IQ, Oct. 15-18 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Morning News/Univ. of Texas at Tyler, Oct. 13-20 (LVs) — General Daines over Bullock 49%-47%. Election ballot: Cornyn over Hegar 42%-34%.

4 October 28, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH House Report Shorts

Alaska. through as Orange County Supervisor is running close At-Large District Don Young, R, re-elected 53%. Trump 51%. to even with the congressman. But in the era of Trump, Biden is still Independent Alyse Galvin is still running at least a few points behind the likely to win the district and that should be enough to help Rouda win long-time congressman. The good news for Democrats is that Trump is re-election. Depending on how Democrats govern, this could be a top on pace to win Alaska by far less than his 14-point victory in 2016. This is takeover opportunity for Republicans in 2022. Lean Democratic. still a hard race for Galvin. Likely Republican. 50th District (Inland San Diego County) Vacant, R. Trump 55%. Democrats are banking on former 49th District Rep. being Arizona. so unpopular that this conservative stronghold rejects his comeback bid. 1st District (Northeastern Arizona) Tom O’Halleran, D, re-elected But Ammar Campa-Najjar, who narrowly lost to an indicted then-Rep. 54%. Trump 48%. In another cycle, this race might be highly competitive, Duncan Hunter two years ago, has had a shaky final month and it’s not but Republican Tiffany Shedd hasn’t been able to give O’Halleran as clear he can make it to 50 percent. Likely Republican. serious a race as the GOP would have liked. Biden will probably carry 53rd District (Eastern San Diego) Susan Davis, D, not seeking re- this district. Likely Democratic. election. Clinton 65%. This Democrat-on-Democrat race hasn’t attracted 6th District (Scottsdale and North Phoenix) Dave Schweikert, the kind of national attention from progressives that other intra party R, re-elected 55%. contests have, and that’s good news for , the 2018 49th Trump 52%. With District candidate and granddaughter of billionaire Qualcomm founder ethics allegations, Irwin Jacobs. San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez has an underfunded endorsements from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, Rep. campaign and a Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and other progressive luminaries. It’s an fast-growing county open question who the 25 percent of the district that supports Trump that is moving will vote for, if they vote at all; polling shows Jacobs with a clear but not against Republicans, overwhelming lead, and while single-party elections can be tricky to the congressman parse, you’d rather be Jacobs at this point. Solid Democratic. shouldn’t have any chance in the race. Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Dave Schweikert Colorado. That’s why Democrats 3rd District (Pueblo and the Western Slope) Open; Scott Tipton, R, believe cancer research advocate Hiral Tipirneni will win. Republicans defeated in primary. Trump 52%. With Tipton supplanted by QAnon- aren’t convinced it’s over. Toss-up. curious restaurant owner and gun enthusiast in the GOP primary, Democrats believe Diane Mitsch Bush, who lost by 8 points Arkansas. to Tipton in 2018, has a good shot of winning the seat. Most polling 2nd District (Greater Little Rock) , R, re-elected 52%. indicates a deadlocked race, with Boebert unable to pull away as some Trump 52%. The ongoing shift in the suburbs, and a battle-hardened Republicans had anticipated. The race may come down to how much and wiley Democratic nominee in state Sen. Joyce Elliott, combine to support Libertarian John Keil draws away from her. Move from Lean make this race a real pickup opportunity for Democrats. Move from Tilt Republican to Tilt Republican. Republican to Toss-up. Florida. California. 15th District (Lakeland and exurbs of Tampa and Orlando) Open; 21st District (Southern Central Valley and part of Bakersfield) TJ Ross Spano, R, defeated in primary. Trump 53%. After Spano, who had Cox, D, elected 50%. Clinton 55%. Democrats admit Cox is vulnerable been plagued by ethics issues from the start of his term, was defeated and Republicans are cautiously optimistic former GOP Rep. David in the GOP primary by Scott Franklin, this district looked out of reach Valadao will win. But a significant Biden victory in the district could for Democrats. But Trump has gone from winning by 10 points in 2016 drag Cox across the finish line. Toss-up. to being tied with Biden today, creating opportunity for Democrat Alan 25th District (Northern Los Angeles County suburbs) , Cohn. The Congressional Leadership Fund made a last-minute $150,000 R, elected in May 12 special 55%. Clinton 50%. After a 7-point deficit in investment here, an indication that Franklin may need help to get over 2016, this is a rare district in which Trump is doing as well or better. But the finish line. Likely Republican. Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith has made steady gains 16th District (Sarasota area) , R, re-elected 55%. since Garcia’s 9-point victory in the May special election. Toss-up. Trump 54%. An October poll from Democratic state Rep. Margaret 39th District (San Gabriel Valley and northern Orange County) Gil Good’s campaign showed the congressman up a few points. A survey Cisneros, D, elected 52%. Clinton 52%. The race is fairly close between from the Buchanan campaign had him up double digits. It’ll probably GOP former state Assemblywoman and the congressman take a significant wave for Good to win. Likely Republican. and Trump isn’t getting blown out at the top of the ballot. But it’s tough 18th District (Treasure Coast and Palm Beach area) , R, to see how Republicans win here this cycle. Likely Democratic. re-elected 54%. Trump 53%. This race shouldn’t be close considering 48th District (Coastal Orange County) Harley Rouda, D, elected Trump’s 9-point victory in 2016 and former Navy JAG Pam Keith’s 54%. Clinton 48%. The historic Republican DNA of the district is shining Continued on page 6

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 28, 2020 5 Continued from page 5 3rd District (Des Moines and southwestern Iowa) , elected relative weakness as the Democratic nominee. But this is a competitive 49%. Trump 49%. In a rematch of 2018, the congresswoman has had a race and Republicans can’t take it for granted. Likely Republican. consistent (albeit sometimes narrow) lead over former GOP Rep. David 26th District (Southwestern Miami area and the Florida Keys) Young over the last six weeks or so. Biden has been outpacing Trump at the Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D, elected 51%. Clinton 57%. At one point, top of the ticket as well, which can only help Axne. Lean Democratic. this could have been Republicans’ best shot at ousting an incumbent. But Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez has faded a bit down the stretch, Michigan. and the Biden campaign is regaining ground among the Cuban voting 3rd District (Grand Rapids area) Open; Justin Amash, Libertarian, bloc that is powerful in this district. He won’t win by Clinton’s margin, not seeking re-election. Trump 52%. A robust performance by Joe Biden but it should be enough to keep Mucarsel-Powell in Congress for another in Michigan, and a strong campaign from Democratic attorney Hillary term. Tilt Democratic. Scholten, have put this longtime GOP-held seat in play, and veteran hasn’t dipped into his vast personal resources to boost his chances Georgia. nearly as much as national Republicans might have hoped. Toss-up. 6th District (Northern Atlanta suburbs) Lucy McBath, D, elected 6th District (Southwestern Michigan) , R, re-elected 51%. Trump 48%. Two years ago, McBath needed a late infusion of cash 50%. Trump 51%. Unless Biden wins an even larger victory in Michigan from Michael Bloomberg to push her over the finish line. This year, she is than the polls are suggesting, Upton should be safe — a lackluster run firmly in the driver’s seat, headed toward what could be a double-digit by state Rep. Jon Hoadley is just the latest Democratic attempt to pick off victory over former Rep. Karen Handel. Move from Lean Democratic to Upton that will likely fall flat. Likely Republican. Likely Democratic. 7th District (Northeastern Atlanta suburbs) Open; Rob Woodall, Minnesota. R, not seeking re-election. Trump 51%. Joe Biden could be the first 1st District (Southern Minnesota) , R, elected 50%. Democrat to win Georgia since 1992, and if he does, it will be because of Trump 53%. A series districts like this one that have swung hard toward Democrats. Carolyn of ethics issues, Bourdeaux nearly toppled Woodall two years ago; now that the seat is a stage IV cancer open, she should finish the job this time around. Republicans believe in diagnosis, and, their nominee, Dr. Rich McCormick. Tilt Democratic. according to at least some Republicans, Illinois. an unwillingness 13th District (Central Illinois) Rodney Davis, R, re-elected 50%. to campaign hard, Trump 49.7%. After a close race in 2018, Democratic businesswoman make Hagedorn Betsy Dirksen Londrigan and the congressman are likely headed for highly vulnerable to a similar finish. The result could come down to the presidential race Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom defeat. He’s facing a Jim Hagedorn in a district Trump carried by almost 6 points in 2016 but where he’s rematch with Army struggling this time around. Toss-up. veteran Dan Feehan, who has made combating corruption central to his campaign. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. Indiana. 2nd District (Southern Twin Cities suburbs) , DFL, 5th District (Northern Indianapolis suburbs) Open; Susan elected 53%. Trump 47%. A federal appeals court affirmed a lower Brooks, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 53%. Biden’s numbers in court’s decision mandating that this election take place on Nov. 3, this suburban district have come down from their sugar high over the rather than being delayed to February 2021 due to the death of Legal summer, but he’s still at least even money to win this district Trump Marijuana Now party candidate Adam Weeks, as prescribed by a carried by 12 points in 2016. If he does, he could carry former Lt. Gov. Minnesota law. GOP nominee Tyler Kistner appealed, but the Supreme candidate Christina Hale to victory over state Sen. as Court rejected a delay of the election. Solid Democratic. well. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. 7th District (Western Minnesota) Collin Peterson, DFL, re-elected 52%. Trump 62%. After more than a decade of dreaming about beating Iowa. the congressman, Republicans believe former Lt. Gov. 1st District (Northeastern Iowa) Abby Finkenauer, D, elected 51%. is finally positioned to do it. And Peterson is clearly frustrated with being Trump 49%. A mid-October public poll showed the congresswoman tied to Speaker and other liberal Democratic colleagues. with an 8-point advantage over GOP state Rep. . The But this race is not over. Trump’s margin is down compared to four years race is probably closer than that but still with a Finkenauer advantage. ago and the race has been close. Toss-up. Biden being competitive in Iowa and the district helps. Move from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. Missouri. 2nd District (Southeastern Iowa) Open; Dave Loebsack, D, not 2nd District (Suburban St. Louis) , R, re-elected 51%. seeking re-election. Trump 49%. Biden has had a consistent lead over Trump 53%. Republicans admit the congresswoman is in a very difficult the president in this district after Trump won it by 4 points four years race against state Sen. Jill Schupp. After winning this district by 10 points ago. That’s boosting former state Sen. Rita Hart’s chances of keeping the in 2016, Trump is likely to lose it this year. Move from Toss-up to Tilt open seat in Democratic hands against GOP state Sen. Marianette Miller- Democratic. Meeks. Move from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. Continued on page 7

6 October 28, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 6 narrow but distinct lead over GOP state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr.. But with Biden poised to win the district but close to a double-digit Montana. margin, there’s little evidence that Kean is going to win this year. Move At-Large District Open, Greg Gianforte, R, not seeking re-election. from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. Trump 56%. is struggling to carry the state by half of the 20-point margin he put up in 2016, and Republican nominee Matt New Mexico. Rosendale is still unpopular from his failed run for Senate in 2018. 2nd District (Southern New Mexico) Xochitl Torres Small, elected Kathleen Williams is running for this seat for the second time, and Continued on page 8 Democrats have special interest in this seat because winning it would flip a state delegation in case of an Electoral College tie. Lean Republican. 2020 House Ratings Nebraska. Toss-Up (8R, 5D, 1L) 2nd District (Greater Omaha area) , R, re-elected 51%. AR 2 (Hill, R)# NM 2 (Torres Small, D) Trump 48%. This race has been fairly consistent and that’s not good news AZ 6 (Schweikert, R) NY 2 (Open; King, R) for the incumbent. While Bacon and Democratic non-profit executive Kara CA 21 (Cox, D) NY 11 (Rose, D) Eastman have been running even for months, Biden has been outpacing CA 25 (Garcia, R) OK 5 (Horn, D) Trump at the top of the ticket by double-digits. It’s unlikely Bacon can IL 13 (Davis, R) PA 10 (Perry, R) overcome that to win re-election. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. MI 3 (Open; Amash, L) TX 21 (Roy, R) MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) TX 22 (Open; Olson, R) Nevada. Tilt Democratic (4D, 9R) Tilt Republican (4R) 3rd District (Southern Las Vegas suburbs) , D, elected FL 26 (Mucarsel-Powell, D) CO 3 (Open; Tipton, R)# 52%. Trump 48%. Former professional wrestler Dan Rodimer, the GOP GA 7 (Open; Woodall, R) NC 8 (Hudson, R)# nominee, is too flawed to overcome Biden’s likely victory in the district IN 5 (Open; Brooks, R)# NY 24 (Katko, R) at the top of the ballot and defeat Lee. Likely Democratic. MN 1 (Hagedorn, R)# VA 5 (Open; Riggleman, R) New Hampshire. MO 2 (Wagner, R)# NE 2 (Bacon, R)# 1st District (Eastern New Hampshire) Chris Pappas, D, elected 54%. NY 22 (Brindisi, D) Trump 48%. With Trump unlikely to repeat his winning performance in this NJ 2 (Van Drew, R)# district, former State Dept. official Matt Mowers needs a financial boost to OH 1 (Chabot, R)# GOP DEM compete with Pappas, but outside groups are steering clear of the Granite State, leaving the Republican to fend for himself. Likely Democratic. TX 23 (Open; Hurd, R) 116th Congress 201 233 TX 24 (Open; Marchant, R)# Currently Solid 162 210 New Jersey. UT 4 (McAdams, D) Competitive 39 23 2nd District (Southern New Jersey coast) , R, elected VA 7 (Spanberger, D) Needed for majority 218 (as a Democrat) 53%. Trump 51%. Van Drew’s fate may be inextricably Lean Democratic (5D) Lean Republican (8R) tied to that of the president he swore his “undying support” to in the CA 48 (Rouda, D) FL 15 (Spano, R) Oval Office last IA 1 (Finkenauer, D)# MT AL (Open; Gianforte, R) December. His very IA 2 (Open; Loebsack, D)# NC 11 (Vacant, Meadows, R)# public break with IA 3 (Axne, D) NY 1 (Zeldin, R) the Democratic Party SC 1 (Cunningham, D) PA 1 (Fitzpatrick, R) over impeachment TX 3 (Taylor, R)# makes him the Trump TX 10 (McCaul, R)# candidate in this race, WA 3 (Herrera-Beutler, R)# an advantage when Likely Democratic (9D, 2R) Likely Republican (8R) Trump was going to AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) AK AL (Young, R) win here, but now

Courtesy The Kennedy Forum CA 39 (Cisneros. D) CA 50 (Vacant, Hunter, R) Trump looks more Amy Kennedy GA 6 (McBath, D)# FL 16 (Buchanan, R) likely to lose and take NC 2 (Open; Holding, R) FL 18 (Mast, R) Van Drew with him, allowing the well-funded Amy Kennedy to snatch NC 6 (Open; Walker, R) MI 6 (Upton, R) this seat back for Democrats. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. 3rd District (Philadelphia suburbs and Central Jersey shore) , NH 1 (Pappas, D) OH 10 (Turner, R) D, elected 50%. Trump 51%. Republican David Richter has not spent nearly NJ 7 (Malinowski, D)# TX 6 (Wright, R) enough of his personal wealth to compete with Kim’s fundraising in this NV 3 (Lee, D) TX 25 (Williams, R) expensive district. He’s down double-digits in the polls and getting outspent OR 4 (DeFazio, D) 60:1 on the airwaves. Move from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. TX 7 (Fletcher, D) 7th District (Hunterdon County and New York City’s western exurbs) VA 2 (Luria, D)# , D, elected 52%. Clinton 49%. The congressman has a # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 28, 2020 7 Continued from page 7 last cycle, but the UNC Greensboro trustee will win a walkover in this 51%. Trump 50%. It was always going to be tough for Democrats to redrawn district. Likely Democratic. hold onto this seat, and even though Torres Small is widely considered 8th District (Concord and Fayetteville) Richard Hudson, R. Trump to be one of the strongest members of the freshman class, she’s still a 54%. Former state Supreme Court Justice Pat Timmons-Goodson has coin-flip away from being a one-term representative. , the run a strong campaign against Hudson, and polls reflect a tightening GOP nominee in 2018 and in 2020, has not turned out to be the disaster race. With Biden running even or ahead in this redrawn district that Democrats had hoped she would be. Toss-up. now includes much of Fayetteville and its suburbs, Hudson finds himself in the most precarious position of the cycle. The Congressional New York. Leadership Fund will spend $2 million in the final week of this race to 1st District (Eastern Suffolk County) , R, re-elected help Hudson over the finish line. Move from Lean Republican to Tilt 52%. Trump 55%. Republican. Republicans had 11th District (Appalachian North Carolina) Vacant; , long maintained that R, resigned to become White House chief of staff. Trump 57%. GOP Democrat Nancy nominee continues to make the kind of headlines Goroff was a poor no politician wants to see; he was behind a website attacking a journalist fit for this district, for going “to work for non-white males, like , who aims to but fit may not ruin white males running for office,” and 150 of his college classmates matter as much in a wrote an open letter saying the 24-year-old, who has been heralded as nationalized election the face of a new Republican generation, had a reputation for “predatory with an unpopular behavior” and lied about the circumstances of the accident that confined president. Despite Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom him to a wheelchair. Democratic candidate Col. Moe Davis has his Lee Zeldin Trump winning here own issues, but he’s been polling well against Cawthorn, and Biden is by 13 points in 2016, he’s in a much closer race this time around, and running stronger than expected here, creating some opportunity. Move outside Democratic Super PAC 314 Action is spending big on Goroff in from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. the final weeks of the race. Lean Republican. 2nd District (Southern Long Island) Open; Peter King, R, not Ohio. seeking re-election. Trump 53%. This looks like a pure toss-up race 1st District (Suburban Cincinnati) , R, re-elected between Democratic Babylon Councilwoman Jackie Gordon and 51%. Trump 51%. Democratic health care executive Kate Schroder and Republican state Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino. Democrats should Chabot have been get a boost considering Trump is struggling to recreate his 9-point victory running even with from 2016. But Republicans are enjoying late stories about Gordon’s each other. The good complicated departure from the military. Toss-up. news for Schroder is 11th District (Staten Island and part of southern Brooklyn) Max that Biden has been Rose, D, elected 53%. Trump 54%. Republicans have gotten more running ahead of optimistic about this race, but that’s not saying all that much. Over the the president (unlike summer they thought Rose, the brash Army veteran, was going to run Trump’s 7-point win in away with it, and now they think it’s a jump ball between the freshman 2016) and there’s little Democrat and state Assemblywoman . Toss-up. reason to believe the 22nd District (Binghamton and Utica-Rome ) Anthony Brindisi, D, Courtesy Kate Schroder campaign congressman will run Kate Schroder elected 51%. Trump 55%. The race has remained fairly static for months. significantly ahead of While the president continues to lead Biden, former GOP Rep. Claudia the top of the ticket. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. Tenney is trailing the congressman. Once again, she is underperforming 10th District (Dayton area) , R, re-elected 56%. Trump and there’s no guarantee Trump will win by enough to pull her across 51%. The president is struggling to carry this district after a 7-point the line. Tilt Democratic. victory in 2016. But the congressman carries an advantage into the final 24th District (Syracuse area) , R, re-elected 53%. Clinton week against Democratic former congressional aide Desiree Tims. If Tims 49%. Biden is poised to expand on Clinton’s 4-point victory in 2016 but wins, it signals a big night across the country for Democrats because Republicans are confident the congressman has weathered another she’s running at least a few points behind him heading into Election Day. storm. Democrats have a fundamentally different view with college Likely Republican. professor Dana Balter edging ahead of Katko even though Republicans drove up her negatives. Tilt Republican. Oklahoma. 5th District (Oklahoma City area) Kendra Horn, D, elected 51%. North Carolina. Trump 53%. The congresswoman quickly distanced herself from Joe 2nd District (Raleigh) Open; George Holding, R, not seeking re-election. Biden’s comments about the oil industry in Thursday night’s debate. It Clinton 60%. Four years after losing a close race to Sen. Richard Burr, former could end up being a headache for the freshman Democrat, but GOP state Rep. Deborah Ross will be headed to Congress. Likely Democratic. nominee turned in a recent shaky debate performance of 6th District (Greensboro and Winston-Salem) Open; Mark Walker, her own. This one is coming down to the wire. Toss-up. R, not seeking re-election. Clinton 59%. lost a close race Continued on page 9

8 October 28, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 8 Texas. 2nd District (Northern Houston and part of west Houston) Dan Oregon. Crenshaw, R, elected 53%. Trump 52%. Biden might win this district that 4th District (Southern Willamette Valley and southern coast) Peter Trump carried by 9 points in 2016, but the congressman has the advantage DeFazio, D, re-elected 56%. Trump 46%. War veteran/ for re-election in the final stretch. Former Beto O’Rourke senior adviser train hero Alek Skarlatos surged in the final months of the campaign Sima Ladjevardian probably needs a wave to win this race. Move from but is likely to come up short against DeFazio. The congressman has Likely Republican to Solid Republican. a significant lead and Biden is likely to win the district, unlike 2016. 3rd District (Collin County - Plano) , R, elected 54%. Depending on the new district lines in 2022 and when DeFazio finally Trump 55%. After a 14-point win four years ago, Trump’s standing plans to retire, we’ll likely see Skarlatos again in another cycle. Likely has fallen so far that Democratic attorney Lulu Seikaly is connecting Democratic. the president to the congressman because her party thinks Trump is a liability in this highly-educated district. Taylor has the edge in the final Pennsylvania. week but with the precarious position at the top of the ballot, this race is 1st District (Philadelphia’s Bucks County suburbs) Brian not over. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Fitzpatrick, R, re-elected 51%. Clinton 49%. Two dramatically different 6th District (Arlington and rural areas south of Dallas) Ron Wright, perspectives R, elected 53%. Trump 54%. This race has received very little attention, on this race as in part because neither the congressman nor Democratic attorney Republicans believe Stephen Daniel are raising much money or running attention-grabbing the congressman is campaigns. Biden is competitive in a district Trump won by 12 points in significantly ahead 2016, but it’s not clear Daniel has done enough to take advantage of the despite Biden winning opportunity. Likely Republican. the district by a large 7th District (West Houston) , D, elected 53%. Clinton margin. Democrats 49%. Biden is poised to win this district by 10 points, making it extremely believe Democratic difficult for Republican Iraq War veteran Wesley Hunt to knock off the Ivyland Borough incumbent. The former vice president’s comments on the oil industry Councilwoman Courtesy Christina Finello campaign during the debate is probably the only thing keeping Republicans in the Christina Finello Christina Finello is game. Likely Democratic. running even with Fitzpatrick, despite a lack of significant investment 10th District (Austin to western Houston) Mike McCaul, R, re- from Democratic groups. We’ll defer to Fitzpatrick here since he’s one of elected 51%. Trump 52%. Democrats are trying to push this race and Republicans’ strongest incumbents. But it wouldn’t be a shock if he lost. Democratic attorney Mike Siegel into a more competitive category. But Lean Republican. with Trump likely to win the district, albeit more narrowly than 2016, 10th District (Harrisburg and York) , R, re-elected 51%. and McCaul running a few points ahead of the president, Siegel is still a Trump 52%. After a 9-point Trump victory in 2016, the district is hosting significant underdog. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. a close presidential race and a tight contest between the congressman 21st District (Parts of Austin and San Antonio connected by Texas and Democratic state Auditor Eugene DePasquale. If Perry wins, GOP Hill Country) Chip losses will be held to a minimum while a DePasquale win would signal Roy, R, elected more significant Democratic gains. Toss-up. 50%. Trump 53%. 17th District (Pittsburgh suburbs and Beaver County) , Democrats have seen D, elected 56%. Trump 49%. The president seems to hold a personal former state Sen. grudge against Lamb, who won a high-profile special election in early Wendy Davis make 2018 that presaged the Democratic House takeover later in the year. steady gains to the Trump has gone out of his way to boost GOP nominee Sean Parnell on point of running even , and gave him a prime speaking slot at the RNC. But Biden is with or even ahead poised to win the district and the congressman is up by double digits. of the congressman. Move from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Republicans believe Wendy Davis Roy still has the edge, South Carolina. although it looks like Trump’s 10-point victory in the district in 2016 has 1st District (Charleston and coastal South Carolina) Joe evaporated. Toss-up. Cunningham, D, elected 51%. Trump 54%. A few weeks ago, GOP 22nd District (Southern Houston suburbs) Open; Pete Olson, R, not strategists would admit that the congressman was in a good shape for seeking re-election. Trump 52%. The two parties appear to be polling re-election. But GOP enthusiasm and optimism has ticked up recently entirely different districts as Republicans believe Ft. Bend County Sheriff and Republicans believe state Rep. is well within striking has the lead while Democrats believe former Foreign Service distance. Cunningham has been running a good campaign, Trump won’t officer Sri Preston Kulkarni has the advantage. While Trump carried win anything close to his 13-point margin in 2016, and Senate nominee the seat by 8 points in 2016, he’s at risk of losing it this year, which is Jaime Harrison’s historically well-funded campaign should help the boosting Democrats’ chances. Toss-Up. congressman in the end. Lean Democratic. 23rd District (El Paso and San Antonio) Open; Will Hurd, R, not Continued on page 10

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 28, 2020 9 Continued from page 9 NFL player running slightly ahead of the congressman. seeking re-election. Clinton 49.8%. It’s been a consistently close race Democrats are confident McAdams has a significant advantage and between Democratic Iraq War veteran and Republican Biden might even win the district. Tilt Democratic. retired Navy veteran for the last few months but Democrats believe their nominee has created some distance in the final Virginia. couple weeks. A likely Biden victory could very well put Ortiz Jones over 2nd District (Virginia Beach) , D, elected 51%. Trump 49%. the top. Tilt Democratic. The president is poised to lose this race by close to double-digits when he 24th District (Suburbs north of Dallas and Fort Worth) Open; Kenny carried it by more than 3 points in 2016. And the congresswoman has opened Marchant, R, not up a significant advantage over former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor. Particularly seeking re-election. after a close race between the same two candidates two years ago, this is the Trump 51%. In the type of race Republicans need to be winning to have a shot at the majority and race between former it’s not likely to happen. Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. Irving Mayor Beth 5th District (Charlottesville and South-central Virginia) Open; Van Duyne, the Denver Riggleman, R, lost renomination. Trump 53%. A few weeks of GOP nominee, and GOP TV ads were supposed to bring this race into alignment with a seat Carrollton-Farmers that Trump won by 11 points in 2016. But Democratic physician Cameron Branch School Board Webb continues to run even with or even ahead of former GOP Campbell Trustee Candace County Supervisor . Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Valenzuela, the campaign Courtesy Candace Valenzuela 7th District (Suburban Richmond) , D, elected 50%. Candace Valenzuela Democratic nominee, Trump 51%. There’s the two parties believe their candidate has the advantage and strategists some discrepancy in fundamentally disagree on the structure of the race. In this environment, the contours of this you’d probably rather be Valenzuela. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. race but a majority 25th District (Part of Austin and rural areas north toward of data show the Dallas-Fort Worth) Roger Williams, R, re-elected 54%. Trump 55%. congresswoman Democratic attorney Julie Oliver is running a better campaign than with an advantage when she lost two years ago and Trump’s margin will be down over GOP state Del. dramatically from 2016, but the congressman has a significant Nick Freitas. Maybe advantage in the final stretch. Oliver likely needs Biden to pull her more concerning for across the finish line. Likely Republican. Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Republicans is that Abigail Spanberger Trump is struggling to Utah. win a district he carried by nearly 7 points in 2016. Tilt Democratic. 4th District (Southern Salt Lake County and rural areas to the south) Ben McAdams, D, elected 50%. Trump 39%. Two parties Washington. fundamentally disagree with the trajectory of this race. Republicans are 3rd District (Vancouver and southwestern Washington) Jaime in alignment with limited public polling which shows Republican former Herrera-Beutler, R, re-elected 53%. Trump 50%. The race has taken a journey from the biennial Democratic optimism for defeating the congresswoman to the race nearly falling off the competitive battlefield 2020 Gubernatorial Ratings and back to Democrats believing 2018 nominee/college professor Carolyn Toss-Up Long has a chance to knock off Herrera-Beutler. The congresswoman MT Open (Bullock, D) has the edge in the race but could lose if Trump falls far from his 7-point Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican victory four years ago. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Lean Democratic Lean Republican Wisconsin. Cooper (D-N.C.) Parson (R-Mo.) 3rd District (Southwestern Wisconsin) , D, re-elected 60%. Likely Democratic Likely Republican Trump 49%. Republicans have been excited about their nominee, former Sununu (R-N.H.) Navy Seal Derrick Van Orden, in a district Trump carried four years ago. Solid Democratic Solid Republican With less than a week to go, Kind has a double-digit advantage in a district Carney (D-Del.) UT Open (Herbert, R) Biden is likely to win at the top of the ticket. Move from Likely Democratic Inslee (D-Wash.) Burgum (R-N.D.) to Solid Democratic. GOP DEM Holcomb (R-Ind.) CurrentCalendar Governors 26 24 Justice (R-W.V.) NotJuly Up 13-16This Cycle Democratic19 National20 ConventionScott (R-Vt.) (Milwaukee) CurrentlyAug. 24-27 Solid Republican5 National2 Convention (Charlotte) CALENDAR Sept. 29 First Presidential Debate (Indiana) Competitive 2 2 Nov. 3 Election Day Oct. 7 Only Vice Presidential Debate (Utah) Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Oct. 15 Second Presidential Debate (Michigan) Jan. 5 Georgia Senate Runoffs (if necessary) Oct. 22 Third Presidential Debate (Tennessee) ww 10 October 28, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH

GOP DEM IN 2 (Walorski, Beutler, R) R) 115th Congress 240 195 MI 6 (Upton, R) WA 5 (McMorris Currently Solid 161 187 MI 7 Rodgers, R) (Walberg,R) Competitive 79 8 MT A-L (Gianforte, R) Needed for majority 218 OH 14 (Joyce, R)

CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline