ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010 According to the Joint Government and Humanitarian Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, Partners’ Humanitarian Requirement Document, March 2010 released on 2 February 2010, an estimated 5.23 million people will require emergency food assistance through June 2010. This equates to a net food requirement of 290,271 MT, estimated to cost around USD 231.3 million. Onset and distribution of the belg/gu/ganna/sugum rains (February to June) to date has been normal to above normal in most parts of the country that receive these rains. Water availability has improved in several woredas of eastern parts of Amhara, Tigray, Afar, Oromia and Somali regions following the early onset and good distribution of the belg areas although some areas continue to face shortages. Source: FEWS NET and WFP Ethiopia For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurity Scale Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +251 11 662 02 17/18 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010 Food security overview More than 5 million people continued to experience high to extreme levels of food insecurity as a result of consecutive below‐normal seasonal rains during the past two years. According to the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) report of February 2010, the 2009 national production of cereals and pulses estimated at 16.8 million MT is about five percent lower than the production in 2008 (The estimate in 2008 stood at 17.6 million MT). Despite the relatively better performance of the meher rains in the west, some surplus producing regions in this part of the country have experienced yield reduction due to replanting following the late start of the rains. The assessment mission identified East Shewa, West Shewa and Arsi zones of Oromia Region; Awi, East Gojam, West Gojam, North and South Gonder zones of Amhara Region; and Metekel and Pawe Special Woredas of Benshangul Gumuz region as the major areas affected. Despite these reductions, the food security situation in the west is generally stable, with the exception of Gambella and parts of Benshangul Gumuz where extreme food insecurity is apparent among the most vulnerable households as a result of production failure during the recent meher agricultural season. The physical condition of livestock, mainly cattle, is being affected due to decreasing pasture availability. Conflict‐induced displacements have also further affected households’ food security in Gambellla Region. High to extreme levels of food insecurity, on the other hand, remain a challenge among the most vulnerable households in the eastern meher cropping areas. These include eastern, south‐eastern, and southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, eastern Oromia, and parts of SNNPR. Following good rainfall at the end of February and in March 2010, the households and livestock that had out migrated from the lowlands of east and west Hararghe zones of Oromia due to poor pastures and water, have started coming back. Water rationing that was ongoing in Babile and Meyu Muluke woredas, has been suspended following the recent rains. The onset of 2010 genna rains have been two weeks earlier than normal in Bale and Borena zones of Oromia resulted in isolated flooding in Yabelo and eased off pasture and water shortages in these areas after poor 2009 genna (April‐June) and Hagaya rains (October‐December). However, high levels of food insecurity have been reported in Bale and Arsi zones and in the Kelem resettlement area. A multi‐agency rapid humanitarian assessment team (February/March, 2010) reported increased humanitarian assistance needs in some woredas of Wag Hamra and North Wollo zones of Amhara where large food deficits have followed poor crop production and reduced purchasing capacity. The current level of food insecurity has caused out‐migration from Sekota and Dehana woredas of Wag Hamra. Increases in the prevalence of acute malnutrition, in woredas such as Habru, Gubalafto, Kobo and Bugna woredas of North Wollo zone, and East Belesa of North Gondar zone has occurred following delayed relief distributions through all resource transfer mechanisms including the PSNP and EOS, and inappropriate targeting. Critical pasture shortage is also reported in Tanqua Abergelle, Atsbi Womberta, Ahferom, Enderta and Saesie Tsaeda Emba woredas of Tigray, though the food insecurity situation in these areas is slightly stabilized by food aid distributions. Following the new harvest from the recent meher cropping season, most importantly in the midlands and highlands, and improved availability of some root crops; cash income from sales of coffee and ginger; increased labor opportunities given the good seasonal prospects; stable supply and cereal prices in the markets; and ongoing relief distributions; improved food security conditions in most parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) have been reported. However, food insecurity conditions are deteriorating in the lowland areas that suffered successive seasonal rainfall failure. The most affected areas are, Mirab Abaya of Gamo Gofa, Boloso Sore and Humbo of Wolayita, Dasanech and Hamer woredas of South Omo zones, and Konso, Amaro and Burji Special Woredas. In the main belg‐reliant parts of the region, such as Konso, Derashe, Amaro and Burji special woredas, timely distribution of PSNP resources, adequate additional food aid deliveries, and continued good performance of the current rains are crucial for food security to improve. Food security in Afar and most parts of Shinile zone of Somali region remains poor. Local production during 2009 in the agro‐pastoral areas of Afar was very poor. While livestock prices are declining, cereals prices have begun to rise particularly, in the northern zones of the region due to declined supplies from neighboring woredas of eastern Amhara where crop harvest from the current meher was also poor. Reduced milk availability and delayed food aid and PSNP resource distributions are likely to exacerbate the food insecurity situation. Parts of Afar started receiving the gu/sugum rains in February, which is earlier than normal. Timely distribution of allocated relief including EOS and PSNP resources, continued Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010 and good performance of the sugum rains, livestock interventions and water trucking in the traditionally water deficient woredas of Bidu, Elidaar, Kori and Erebit will be crucial to improve the food security situation in the region. The early rains that have been received in most of Somali region in February and March have eased the pasture and water problems from the Jilaal (January‐March) dry period. As a result, livestock body condition is expected to start improving except in Korahe and Warder where pasture continues to deteriorate due to influx of livestock from Somalia. Terms of trade are also unfavorable in these areas as prices of livestock declined against increasing cereal prices. The flood that affected Mustahil and Kelafo woredas in Gode zone has started to recede making the food distribution points in these areas accessible, Overall, adequate and timely food aid and PSNP resource distributions will be critical in order to mitigate the ongoing effects of food insecurity in the affected areas. Needs for increased humanitarian assistance are highly likely due to the earlier depletion of household food stocks as a result of reduced harvest and gaps in addressing the livelihood protection needs for vulnerable households in the eastern meher producing areas. In the pastoral regions of Afar and Somali, while the provision of relief resources is important and needs to continue, understanding the livestock productivity and holding per household will also be helpful to know how the consecutive poor seasonal rains have impacted household food security and vulnerability. This will inform appropriate livestock interventions which could speed‐up the recovery of pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods. Table 2. Review of January Outlook assumptions and subsequent development Main expected impacts on food Variables and Assumptions Actual conditions and impacts observed to date security In the absence of a Improvement in pasture and water in The national meteorology agency has provided an meteorological forecast, it was areas facing shortages as well as good outlook for the season. There have also been assumed that the February to planting of belg crops was anticipated. unseasonable rains and early start to the May rains will be normal. Belg/Gu/Genna rains that improved water and pasture availability in parts of the country. Actual belg/gu/ganna/sugum rains to date has also been normal to above normal in most parts of the country. Improved availability of food aid Improvement in the availability and WFP has reported that emergency food aid is available (general ration and access of food at the household level and full ration will be distributed to identified supplementary food) beneficiaries at least in the first quarter of 2010. The first round of distributions in 2010 is being carried out. Staple prices remain stable Access to food improved Generally cereal prices have shown a declining trend following the seasonal pattern except in some pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Seasonal progress The gu/ganna/sugum/belg rains are the main rains for the southeastern pastoral areas, including most of Somali region, adjacent lowlands of Oromia region, South Omo Zone and the crop producing southern special woredas of SNNP region. These rains are the secondary rains for the northeastern highlands, the northeastern pastoral areas, areas along the Rift Valley, and most crop‐producing areas of SNNP region.