ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010

 According to the Joint Government and Humanitarian Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, Partners’ Humanitarian Requirement Document, March 2010 released on 2 February 2010, an estimated 5.23 million people will require emergency food assistance through June 2010. This equates to a net food requirement of 290,271 MT, estimated to cost around USD 231.3 million.

 Onset and distribution of the belg/gu/ganna/sugum rains (February to June) to date has been normal to above normal in most parts of the country that receive these rains.

 Water availability has improved in several woredas of eastern parts of Amhara, Tigray, Afar, Oromia and Somali regions following the early onset and good distribution of the belg areas although some areas continue to face shortages.

Source: FEWS NET and WFP For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurity Scale

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +251 11 662 02 17/18 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

www.fews.net/ethiopia

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010

Food security overview

More than 5 million people continued to experience high to extreme levels of food insecurity as a result of consecutive below‐normal seasonal rains during the past two years. According to the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) report of February 2010, the 2009 national production of cereals and pulses estimated at 16.8 million MT is about five percent lower than the production in 2008 (The estimate in 2008 stood at 17.6 million MT).

Despite the relatively better performance of the meher rains in the west, some surplus producing regions in this part of the country have experienced yield reduction due to replanting following the late start of the rains. The assessment mission identified East Shewa, West Shewa and Arsi zones of Oromia Region; Awi, East Gojam, West Gojam, North and South Gonder zones of ; and Metekel and Pawe Special Woredas of Benshangul Gumuz region as the major areas affected. Despite these reductions, the food security situation in the west is generally stable, with the exception of Gambella and parts of Benshangul Gumuz where extreme food insecurity is apparent among the most vulnerable households as a result of production failure during the recent meher agricultural season. The physical condition of livestock, mainly cattle, is being affected due to decreasing pasture availability. Conflict‐induced displacements have also further affected households’ food security in Gambellla Region.

High to extreme levels of food insecurity, on the other hand, remain a challenge among the most vulnerable households in the eastern meher cropping areas. These include eastern, south‐eastern, and southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, eastern Oromia, and parts of SNNPR. Following good rainfall at the end of February and in March 2010, the households and livestock that had out migrated from the lowlands of east and west Hararghe zones of Oromia due to poor pastures and water, have started coming back. Water rationing that was ongoing in Babile and Meyu Muluke woredas, has been suspended following the recent rains. The onset of 2010 genna rains have been two weeks earlier than normal in Bale and Borena zones of Oromia resulted in isolated flooding in Yabelo and eased off pasture and water shortages in these areas after poor 2009 genna (April‐June) and Hagaya rains (October‐December). However, high levels of food insecurity have been reported in Bale and Arsi zones and in the Kelem resettlement area.

A multi‐agency rapid humanitarian assessment team (February/March, 2010) reported increased humanitarian assistance needs in some woredas of Wag Hamra and North Wollo zones of Amhara where large food deficits have followed poor crop production and reduced purchasing capacity. The current level of food insecurity has caused out‐migration from Sekota and woredas of Wag Hamra. Increases in the prevalence of acute malnutrition, in woredas such as , Gubalafto, and woredas of , and East Belesa of has occurred following delayed relief distributions through all resource transfer mechanisms including the PSNP and EOS, and inappropriate targeting. Critical pasture shortage is also reported in Tanqua Abergelle, Atsbi Womberta, Ahferom, Enderta and Saesie Tsaeda Emba woredas of Tigray, though the food insecurity situation in these areas is slightly stabilized by food aid distributions.

Following the new harvest from the recent meher cropping season, most importantly in the midlands and highlands, and improved availability of some root crops; cash income from sales of coffee and ginger; increased labor opportunities given the good seasonal prospects; stable supply and cereal prices in the markets; and ongoing relief distributions; improved food security conditions in most parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) have been reported. However, food insecurity conditions are deteriorating in the lowland areas that suffered successive seasonal rainfall failure. The most affected areas are, Mirab Abaya of Gamo Gofa, Boloso Sore and Humbo of Wolayita, Dasanech and Hamer woredas of South Omo zones, and Konso, Amaro and Burji Special Woredas. In the main belg‐reliant parts of the region, such as Konso, Derashe, Amaro and Burji special woredas, timely distribution of PSNP resources, adequate additional food aid deliveries, and continued good performance of the current rains are crucial for food security to improve.

Food security in Afar and most parts of Shinile zone of Somali region remains poor. Local production during 2009 in the agro‐pastoral areas of Afar was very poor. While livestock prices are declining, cereals prices have begun to rise particularly, in the northern zones of the region due to declined supplies from neighboring woredas of eastern Amhara where crop harvest from the current meher was also poor. Reduced milk availability and delayed food aid and PSNP resource distributions are likely to exacerbate the food insecurity situation. Parts of Afar started receiving the gu/sugum rains in February, which is earlier than normal. Timely distribution of allocated relief including EOS and PSNP resources, continued

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010

and good performance of the sugum rains, livestock interventions and water trucking in the traditionally water deficient woredas of Bidu, Elidaar, Kori and Erebit will be crucial to improve the food security situation in the region.

The early rains that have been received in most of Somali region in February and March have eased the pasture and water problems from the Jilaal (January‐March) dry period. As a result, livestock body condition is expected to start improving except in Korahe and Warder where pasture continues to deteriorate due to influx of livestock from Somalia. Terms of trade are also unfavorable in these areas as prices of livestock declined against increasing cereal prices. The flood that affected Mustahil and Kelafo woredas in Gode zone has started to recede making the food distribution points in these areas accessible,

Overall, adequate and timely food aid and PSNP resource distributions will be critical in order to mitigate the ongoing effects of food insecurity in the affected areas. Needs for increased humanitarian assistance are highly likely due to the earlier depletion of household food stocks as a result of reduced harvest and gaps in addressing the livelihood protection needs for vulnerable households in the eastern meher producing areas. In the pastoral regions of Afar and Somali, while the provision of relief resources is important and needs to continue, understanding the livestock productivity and holding per household will also be helpful to know how the consecutive poor seasonal rains have impacted household food security and vulnerability. This will inform appropriate livestock interventions which could speed‐up the recovery of pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods.

Table 2. Review of January Outlook assumptions and subsequent development Main expected impacts on food Variables and Assumptions Actual conditions and impacts observed to date security In the absence of a Improvement in pasture and water in The national meteorology agency has provided an meteorological forecast, it was areas facing shortages as well as good outlook for the season. There have also been assumed that the February to planting of belg crops was anticipated. unseasonable rains and early start to the May rains will be normal. Belg/Gu/Genna rains that improved water and pasture availability in parts of the country. Actual belg/gu/ganna/sugum rains to date has also been normal to above normal in most parts of the country. Improved availability of food aid Improvement in the availability and WFP has reported that emergency food aid is available (general ration and access of food at the household level and full ration will be distributed to identified supplementary food) beneficiaries at least in the first quarter of 2010. The first round of distributions in 2010 is being carried out. Staple prices remain stable Access to food improved Generally cereal prices have shown a declining trend following the seasonal pattern except in some pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

Seasonal progress

The gu/ganna/sugum/belg rains are the main rains for the southeastern pastoral areas, including most of Somali region, adjacent lowlands of Oromia region, South Omo Zone and the crop producing southern special woredas of SNNP region. These rains are the secondary rains for the northeastern highlands, the northeastern pastoral areas, areas along the Rift Valley, and most crop‐producing areas of SNNP region. For the western parts of the country, it is the start of the long rainy season. Belg rain are important for belg crop production in the belg producing parts of the country (Figure 2) and contributes about 5 to 10 percent of total annual crop production. They are also used for land preparation and planting of long cycle meher crops. Belg rains are also important for flowering and seed setting of coffee and regeneration of chat.

The gu/ganna rains normally begin towards early April in the southeastern parts of the country, but this year the rains were early by about a month. Most of Somali region received good rains since the end of February, except for parts of Warder zone that received only some light showers to date. The rains have brought much needed relief and have improved water availability where there were very serious shortages. Water trucking is expected to be halted in areas that received good rains. Availability of pasture started improving with the continuation of the rains in March. There was heavy rain in Jijiga zone in the first week of March that led to flooding. The floods caused inundation and destruction of several houses in Jijiga

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010 town, washed away a small bridge, and damaged Figure 2. Belg grain production as a percentage of total grain many shelters at the Awbare refugee camp in the production (Belg crops defined as those harvested March-August) northern part of Somali Region. In a similar incident, hundreds of people in Togowchale, a small border town, were also temporarily evacuated, as floods from an overflowing seasonal river submerged residential quarters. Such heavy rains, with more than 100 mm of precipitation in a single day, as witnessed recently in Somali, is unusual.

In the northeastern belg crop producing parts of the country, belg rains usually begin in mid‐ February and move towards the east. The rains begin in March in Afar region. This year the rains began early, with most areas of the country receiving belg rains in early February, with precipitations continuing through the present day (Figure 3). The rains have improved availability of water in SNNPR, the lowlands of eastern Oromia, Note: Belg rains are known as gu rains in southern Somali region and as ganna rains in parts of Amhara, and Afar, areas that have been Oromiya. experiencing severe water shortages in the past dry Source: Livelihoods Integration Unit, DMFSS, MOARD, Govt. of Ethiopia months. Currently, fresh browse has started to Graphics: FEWS NET grow in some of the areas where adequate rains have been received; some of the dry pasture and bush would now be wet and moist and could serve as complementary feed. It will, however, take some weeks before pastures fully regenerate. Although improvements are reported in many areas there are still areas that continue to report shortages. Among the areas with pasture problems include some areas of zone 1, 2 and 4 of Afar Region, the central parts of Tigray and Teslmet woreda of North Gonder and the lowlands of of Amhara Regions. Livestock conditions are largely normal in most of the country. Improvement in physical condition of livestock and their productivity is expected as the pasture continues to regenerate. Most of the livestock that out migrated in search of pasture and water in the different affected areas of the country during the past Figure 3. 2010 belg/gu/ganna/sugum season Precipitation Anomaly (mm) dry months have returned home. This will have a positive impact on household food security as access to milk would be slightly improved with the return of some of the milking animals.

Land preparation and planting of belg crops is progressing smoothly across the country using available soil moisture. The northeastern highland belg producing area started early planting of belg crops taking advantage of the unseasonable rains in December/January. Some of these crops, especially those in Raya Azebo and Kobo woredas, have failed as they could not survive the severe moisture stresses that ensued in January. Farmers in these areas are now preparing the land for replanting with teff. In SNNPR, both belg crops and root crops, like sweet potato, Irish potato and other tubers, have been planted and are performing well. Maize planted in marshy areas of Dugna Fango and Damot Fulas woredas is at flowering and green harvest stages. The second season sweet potato is being harvested in many places in Wolayita, Gamo Gofa, Dawro, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones. The rains so far have also been favorable for permanent crops like coffee, chat and enset. Land preparation for planting of long‐cycle crops (maize, sorghum and millet) is also ongoing in most crop producing parts of the country. Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA Africa briefing page

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Update March 2010

Overall performance of the belg/gu/ganna/sugum rains so far has been good. There is a need to continue to monitor the rains and impact of the rains during the remainder of the rainy season.

Markets and trade

The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) has reported the lowest inflation rate of 5.1 percent with food inflation reported at ‐1.5 percent in February 2010, since inflation started increasing in 2005. Cereal prices are normally at their lowest in January when fresh stocks from the meher harvest come to the market as this is when most bulk cereal purchases are carried out. This year, prices of cereals in February were either stable or slightly lower than that of January 2010. Compared to the long term average however, cereal prices are substantially higher. The nominal retail price of white maize in Addis Ababa for example is 39 percent higher than that of the 2005 to 2009 average (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Nominal retail price of white maize in Addis Ababa A Rapid Rural Assessment of the 2009/10 meher crop production was undertaken for USAID Ethiopia by Agridev Consult in February 2010. During the White Maize: Nominal retail prices in Addis Ababa assessment, grain traders were interviewed on 1000 movement of cereal prices this year. According to 900 the findings cereal prices are low due to a reduced 800 wholesale demand by consumers, flour mills and 700

kg 600 large traders. Lack of credit to traders that would normally buy in bulk during the harvest season to 500 400 sell later in the year was the main reason for the ETB/100 reduced demand by large traders. Traders also 300 noted that consumers have switched to cheaper 200 root vegetables, especially potatoes, as the nominal 100 price of cereals has increased. Reduced purchasing 0 JUL SEP FEB JAN DEC DEC JUN APR OCT AUG NOV MAY power, especially among the urban poor, as the MAR

consumer price index has increased and incomes 2005‐2009 AVG 2009 2010 have stagnated was also given as one of the reasons for the reduced demand. Presence of stocks from Source: FEWS NET/Ethiopia and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). last year at the rural household, trader and mill Graphic: FEWS NET/Ethiopia.

levels was also noted. All of these factors have led to Notes: (1) Prices in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian birr ≈ 13.34 US cents. a reduced demand leading to the current level of prices. In addition, existing stocks by the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) and additional imports for distribution in major urban centers at subsidized prices has also contributed to the reduced demand. The Government (through EGTE) urban market stabilization program is expected to continue in 2010, with the Government already importing 250,000 MT of wheat. The wheat will be sold at a subsidized price still to be determined to consumers, with the price in December pegged at 3.75 Birr/Kg.

The reduced demand that led to decline in cereal prices may be a disincentive for surplus producing farmers. The study suggests that targeted local purchase programs in appropriate surplus areas could support surplus producing farmers.

The decline in cereal prices, on the other hand, is beneficial for poor and very poor farmers, the pastoralists and agro pastoralists and the urban poor, all of whom spend a high proportion of their income on the purchase of food. Prices are however, still at a much higher level compared to the long term average. Unless this is offset by an increase in income, food security of these groups of people will continue to be affected by reduced purchasing power.

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ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin March 2010

Maize is the most widely consumed cereal by the rural poor. Sorghum is generally one of the cheapest cereals. Teff is also very important throughout the country. The most important markets for teff are the large cities including Addis Ababa, , Mekele, and Dire Dawa. Addis Abada is the capital city and Dire Dawa, Mekele, and Jijiga are major towns in the eastern, mainly food insecure, parts of the country. Bahir Dar is a major town in a surplus producing area. Jimma represents a generally food secure surplus area. Shashemene is an assembly, wholesale, and retail market and the main transshipment point for cereals from the south and southwest to the center and east. Sodo is an urban center located in the Wolayita zone, and is one of the most chronically food insecure parts of the region.

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners.

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ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin March 2010

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ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin March 2010

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