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ALTERNATIVE BETA MATTERS Quarterly Newsletter - Q4 2019
Alt Beta Newsletter 1 November 2019 ALTERNATIVE BETA MATTERS Quarterly Newsletter - Q4 2019 Introduction Welcome to CFM’s Alternative Beta Matters Quarterly Newsletter. Within this report we recap major developments in the Alternative Industry, together with a brief overview of Equity, Fixed Income/Credit, FX and Commodity markets as well as Trading Regulations and Data Science and Machine Learning news. All discussion is agnostic to particular approaches or techniques, and where alternative benchmark strategy results are presented, the exact methodology used is given. It also features our ‘CFM Talks To’ segment, an interview series in which we discuss topical issues with thought leaders from academia, the finance industry, and beyond. We have included an extended academic abstract from a paper published during the quarter, and one whitepaper. Our hope is that these publications, which convey our views on topics related to Alternative Beta that have arisen in our many discussions with clients, can be used as a reference for our readers, and can stimulate conversations on these topical issues. Contact details Call us +33 1 49 49 59 49 Email us [email protected] www.cfm.fr CFM Alternative Beta Matters CONTENTS 3 Quarterly review 10 Extended abstract The case for long-only agnostic allocation portfolios 11 Other news 12 CFM Talks To Robert Engle 17 Whitepaper Of Presidents and Heart Attacks - risk control as diversification through time www.cfm.fr 02 CFM Alternative Beta Matters (SG) Multi Alternative Risk Premia Index1 still managed to Quarterly review post a 2% positive return over the quarter. The headline story, however, was the good performance of Quantitative overview of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) in 2019, which continued in Q3. -
The Impact of Trump's Tweets on Financial Markets
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Abdi, Farshid; Kormanyos, Emily; Pelizzon, Loriana; Getmansky, Mila; Simon, Zorka Working Paper A modern take on market efficiency: The impact of Trump's tweets on financial markets SAFE Working Paper, No. 314 Provided in Cooperation with: Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE Suggested Citation: Abdi, Farshid; Kormanyos, Emily; Pelizzon, Loriana; Getmansky, Mila; Simon, Zorka (2021) : A modern take on market efficiency: The impact of Trump's tweets on financial markets, SAFE Working Paper, No. 314, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Frankfurt a. M. This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/233887 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Farshid Abdi | Emily Kormanyos | Loriana Pelizzon | Mila Getmansky Sherman | Zorka Simon A Modern Take on Market Efficiency: The Impact of Trump’s Tweets on Financial Markets SAFE Working Paper No. -
By His Words Alone: the Economic Consequences of Rodrigo Duterte
PRE The Philippine Review of Economics 57(1): 71-100. DOI: 10.37907/4ERP0202J By his words alone: the economic consequences of Rodrigo Duterte Elain Brianne O. Balderas* Alyanna Maria Belen S.D. Bernardo University of the Philippines Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has gained worldwide notoriety for his foul-mouthed statements, particularly for his threats directed towards the nation’s largest businesses and their powerful owners. Such pronouncements, which may be mistaken for shifts in government policy, may inadvertently provoke the business sector to react negatively. This paper examines whether President Duterte's negative business-related pronouncements have an appreciable effect on the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi). We apply an interrupted time series model on PSEi data for the period June 30, 2016 until December 31, 2019 to determine Duterte’s impact on stock prices under six different intervention scenarios. Specifically, we test different classifications of business pronouncements— initial business pronouncements, anti-oligarch statements, personal attacks, and combinations of the three. The results show a significant relationship between Duterte’s negative business-related pronouncements on the PSEi closing price, with the biggest changes occurring during the first times he brought up a particular issue or addressed a certain personality. We aggregated the losses for the period 2018-2019 resulting from these pronouncements. For the five pronouncements, we estimate the combined losses to rise from ₱1 million on the day they were made to ₱47 million within five days and, as the market continues to adjust, up to₱ 441 million within ten days. JEL classification: C23, G12, G14, G41 Keywords: political communication, stock markets, efficient market hypothesis, event studies 1. -
Unfit for Office
Unfit for Office Donald Trump’s narcissism makes it impossible for him to carry out the duties of the presidency in the way the Constitution requires. George T. Conway III On a third-down play last season, the Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith stood in shotgun formation, five yards behind the line of scrimmage. As he called his signals, a Houston Texans cornerback, Kareem Jackson, suddenly sprinted forward from a position four yards behind the defensive line. Jackson’s timing was perfect. The ball was snapped. The Texans’ left defensive end, J.J. Watt, sprinted to the outside, taking the Redskins’ right tackle with him. The defensive tackle on Watt’s right rushed to the inside, taking the offensive right guard with him. The result was a huge gap in the Redskins’ line, through which Jackson could run unblocked. He quickly sacked Smith, for a loss of 13 yards. Special-teams players began taking the field for the punt. But Smith didn’t get up. He rolled flat onto his back, pulled off his helmet, and covered his face with his hands. He was clearly in excruciating pain. The slow-motion replay immediately showed the television audience why: As Smith was tackled, his right leg had buckled sharply above the ankle, with his foot rotating significantly away from any direction in which a human foot ought to point. The play-by-play announcer Greg Gumbel said grimly, “We’ll be back,” and the network abruptly cut to a break. There was nothing more to say. Even without the benefit of medical training, and even without conducting a physical examination, viewers knew what had happened. -
Arxiv:1910.00149V2 [Physics.Soc-Ph] 11 Jan 2021 Examples Abound
Fame and Ultrafame: Measuring and comparing daily levels of `being talked about' for United States' presidents, their rivals, God, countries, and K-pop Peter Sheridan Dodds,1, 2, ∗ Joshua R. Minot,1 Michael V. Arnold,1 Thayer Alshaabi,1 Jane Lydia Adams,1 David Rushing Dewhurst,1 Andrew J. Reagan,3 and Christopher M. Danforth1, 2 1Computational Story Lab, Vermont Complex Systems Center, MassMutual Center of Excellence for Complex Systems and Data Science, Vermont Advanced Computing Core, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05401. 2Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05401. 3MassMutual Data Science, Amherst, MA 01002. (Dated: January 12, 2021) When building a global brand of any kind|a political actor, clothing style, or belief system| developing widespread awareness is a primary goal. Short of knowing any of the stories or products of a brand, being talked about in whatever fashion|raw fame|is, as Oscar Wilde would have it, better than not being talked about at all. Here, we measure, examine, and contrast the day-to-day raw fame dynamics on Twitter for US Presidents and major US Presidential candidates from 2008 to 2020: Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. We assign \lexical fame" to be the number and (Zipfian) rank of the (lowercased) mentions made for each individual across all languages. We show that all five political figures have at some point reached extraordinary volume levels of what we define to be \lexical ultrafame": An overall rank of approximately 300 or less which is largely the realm of function words and demarcated by the highly stable rank of `god'. -
Salinas Valley
BUSINESS Chamber Trip Economy on JOURNAL to Australia + Fiji P. 5 Moderate Growth Path P. 9 INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Workplace Mental Health P.7 | Home Sales are Solid P.9 | Public Retirees Pensions P.17 Update on “The Salinas Plan” 32 Unpopular Recommendations to Avoid Future City Bankruptcy by Kevin Dayton, Chamber Board We’ve all heard of companies reorganizing their debts under Chapter 11 problem even more acute. of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. And sometimes we hear about companies filing Recessions Lead to Local Government Bankruptcies for bankruptcy under Chapter 7, which means the companies go completely out of business. Notice in the chart above that Vallejo, Stockton, and San Bernardino went bankrupt during the so-called “Great Recession” of the late 2000s/ But do you know about Chapter 9 bankruptcy? This is the law for municipal early 2010s. When businesses were prospering, elected officials in these governments (such as cities and counties) that can’t pay off their debts. three cities could not resist imprudent spending on programs and projects. They go bankrupt to reorganize their debts, just like a business that can’t They also agreed to excessive financial commitments for employees. pay its obligations. When the economy slowed down, these cities couldn’t collect enough revenue Two of the most notorious Chapter 9 bankruptcies in recent American in taxes and fees to pay their bills. history were Orange County, California in 1994 and Detroit, Michigan in 2013. Ten years later, the American economy has experienced the longest period In recent years federal courts have also declared these three California cities of sustained growth in its history. -
1. INTRODUCTION Economists Are Interested Every Day in The
Dr. Ing. Ștefan SFICHI “Ștefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Romania [email protected] Abstract: Economists are interested every day in the evolution of the markets. Nowadays, more and more mass media and social media are getting a higher important point on the evolution of the world. This is why these get to be more and more important. Taking into consideration the importance of presidents announcing trends on social media, it is of great value a capitalization of it. This is what this paper intends to find out and expose. Social has become the most important place of assimilation and or consumption of information and therefore is influencing the political directions and the markets. Key words: Media, Social Media, Markets, media impacting the market, worldwide, mass media JEL classification: L82 1. INTRODUCTION Economists are interested every day in the evolution of the markets. It is a fact that you may become even president if you have the media and social media with you. It is also a fact that you may not become a president if you don’t. Thinking of these facts, this article tries to find out how are media and social media impacting the markets. Nowadays, more and more mass media and social media are getting a higher important point on the evolution of the world. This is why these get to be more and more important. Taking into consideration the importance of presidents announcing trends on social media, it is of great value a capitalization of it. This is what this paper intends to find out and expose. -
Opening Remarks and Introduction UWF Foundation, Inc
Opening Remarks and Introduction UWF Foundation, Inc. Board of Directors Meeting Applied Science & Technology Bldg. 70, Room #115 December 4, 2019 3:30 – 5:00 p.m. Agenda Opening Remark/ Introduction Gail Dorsey, BOD Chair Call to Order / Agenda Roll Call / Quorum / Approval of Minutes* John Gormley, BOD Secretary Information Reports University Update Martha Saunders, UWF President Advancement Report Howard Reddy, VP for Advancement Career Development & Community Engagement: Lauren Loeffler, Executive Director CDCE Partnership opportunities for the Foundation Board Student Presentation Sam Brown, UWF Co-Op Student - Toyota Alumni Report Eric Brammer, Alumni Assoc. President CFO’s Report Daniel Lucas, Chief Financial Officer Committee/Officers Reports Executive Committee Gail Dorsey, BOD Chair Actions of the Executive Committee* Investment Committee James Hosman, Vice Chair Investment Cmte Quarterly Performance Report Earnings and Expenses Comparison Other Investment Assets Actions of the Investment Committee* Audit Budget Committee David Hightower, BOD Treasurer Actions of the Audit Budget Committee* Budget to Actual Reports Housing & Foundation Statement of Functional Expenses Unspent Budget Report Review of Internal Controls and Fraud Responsibilities Grant Committee Tim Haag, Chair Grant Committee Actions of the Grant Committee Nominating Committee Gordon Sprague, BOD Immediate Past Chair Will meet March 5, 20 Other Business 20 Gail Dorsey, BOD Chair Closing Remarks from Chair Gail Dorsey, BOD Chair Adjourn *Indicates possible action item for the Board. UWF FOUNDATION, INC. BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING Pensacola Main Campus Building 70 Classroom September 18, 2019 @ 3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. DRAFT Present Members: Chair Gail Dorsey, Rich Byars, Jamie Calvert, Dave Cleveland, Jason Crawford, DeeDee Davis, Megan Fry, John Gormley, Tim Haag, Chad Henderson, James Hosman, Amber McClure, David Peaden, Bill Rone, Martha Saunders, Gordon Sprague, Rodney Sutton, Bruce Vredenburg, Todd Zaborski, Dr. -
3690-2021-01-08.Pdf
FOUNDER & PUBLISHER Kowie Geldenhuys EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Paulo Coutinho www.macaudailytimes.com.mo FRIDAY T. 7º/ 13º Air Quality Bad MOP 8.00 3690 “ THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’ ” N.º 08 Jan 2021 HKD 10.00 THE MEDIA OUTLET PLATAFORMA GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS MAJOR SHAREHOLDER URGES MGM HAS TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED RESORTS TO SELL 20% OF ITS MACAU THE OPERATION OF THEIR ONLINE LAUNCHING THIRD FINANCIAL OPERATION TO CHINESE FIRMS IN LISBON NEWSROOM STIMULUS MEASURES OPEN LETTER P4 P3 P2 AP PHOTO EVA BUCHO EVA China Two former journalists were convicted of defaming a third STABLE AND journalist by publishing an account accusing him of sexual misconduct. A court in Hangzhou ruled that the evidence provided by Zou Sicong and He Qian against prominent IMPROVINGSecretary for Economy and Finance Lei Wai Nong journalist Deng Fei was “not enough to allow forecasts that Macau economy will be ‘stable and someone to firmly believe P3 without any hesitation improving’ in 2021 that what was described truly happened.” The court ordered He and Zou to pay 11,712 yuan in damages. They plan to appeal the ruling. AP PHOTO Japan has declared a state of emergency for Tokyo and three nearby areas as coronavirus cases continue to surge, hitting a daily record of 2,447 in the capital. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga issued the declaration at the government task force for the coronavirus. It kicks in today until Feb. 7, and centers around asking restaurants and bars to close at 8 p.m. and people to stay home and not mingle in crowds. -
VI. Developments in Hong Kong and Macau
1 VI. Developments in Hong Kong and Macau Hong Kong During the Commission’s 2015 reporting year, massive pro- democracy demonstrations (‘‘Occupy Central’’ or the ‘‘Umbrella Movement’’) took place from September through December 2014, drawing attention to ongoing tensions over Hong Kong’s debate on electoral reform and Hong Kong’s autonomy from the Chinese cen- tral government under the ‘‘one country, two systems’’ approach. The Commission observed developments raising concerns that the Chinese and Hong Kong governments may have infringed on the rights of the people of Hong Kong, including in the areas of polit- ical participation and democratic reform, press freedom, and free- dom of assembly. UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE AND AUTONOMY Hong Kong’s Basic Law guarantees freedom of speech, religion, and assembly; promises Hong Kong a ‘‘high degree of autonomy’’; and affirms the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) applies to Hong Kong.1 The Basic Law also states that its ‘‘ultimate aim’’ is the election of Hong Kong’s Chief Execu- tive (CE) ‘‘by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly rep- resentative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures’’ and of the Legislative Council (LegCo) ‘‘by universal suffrage.’’ 2 The CE is currently chosen by a 1,200-member Election Committee,3 largely consisting of members elected in functional constituencies made up of professionals, corporations, religious and social organizations, and trade and business interest groups.4 Forty LegCo members are elected directly by voters and 30 by functional constituencies.5 The electors of many functional constituencies, however, reportedly have close ties to or are supportive of the Chi- nese government.6 Despite committing in principle to allow Hong Kong voters to elect the CE by universal suffrage in 2017, the Chinese govern- ment’s framework for electoral reform 7 restricts the ability of vot- ers to nominate CE candidates for election. -
VI. Developments in Hong Kong and Macau
VI. Developments in Hong Kong and Macau Findings • During the Commission’s reporting year, a number of deeply troubling developments in Hong Kong undermined the ‘‘one country, two systems’’ governance framework, which led the U.S. Secretary of State to find that Hong Kong has not main- tained a high degree of autonomy for the first time since the handover in July 1997. • On June 30, 2020, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) passed the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (National Security Law), by- passing Hong Kong’s Legislative Council. To the extent that this law criminalizes secession, subversion, terrorist activities, and collusion with foreign states, this piece of legislation vio- lates Hong Kong’s Basic Law, which specifies that Hong Kong shall pass laws concerning national security. Additionally, the National Security Law raises human rights and rule of law concerns because it violates principles such as the presumption of innocence and because it contains vaguely defined criminal offenses that can be used to unduly restrict fundamental free- doms. • The Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (PRC Liaison Office) declared in April 2020 that neither it nor the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, both being State Council agencies, were subject to Article 22 of the Basic Law—a provision designed to protect Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy. The Hong Kong government had long interpreted the provision to cover the PRC Liaison Office, but it reversed itself overnight in an ap- parent attempt to conform its position to that of the central government. -
Macau Leadership Styles and Practices: Empirical Investigations on Sino-Macanese Managerial Preferences
Sander Schroevers, Jiatong Wang/ AU-HIU Journal Vol 1 No 1 (2021) 36-43 36 MACAU LEADERSHIP STYLES AND PRACTICES: EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATIONS ON SINO-MACANESE MANAGERIAL PREFERENCES Sander Schroevers1, Jiatong Wang2 Received: April 2021 Revised: June 2021 Accepted: July 2021 _______________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract This study maps the theoretical and nomological network around effective leadership styles in Macau. Since the return of the Macau peninsula to China in 1999, Europe’s oldest rear window on China has undergone significant geo-economic and social transformation. Today, nearly half of the population comprise Mainland Chinese immigrants, while around seventy percent of tourists come from the inland. In light of the central government in Beijing’s plans for the Greater Bay Area, the Belt Road Initiative and the Renminbi offshore centre in Macau, which, in turn, will increase the presence of mainland senior executives in Macau, it is of paramount importance to investigate the relationship between the prevailing leadership styles and practices in Macau and the socio-cultural leadership philosophies practiced in Mainland China. Below we discuss the implications of the substantive findings for our understanding of effective leadership practices for this Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China. Keywords: Leadership, Culture, Leadership style, Macao, Macau, China, HRM, Chinese management JEL Classification Code: F23 _________________________________________________________________________________________ e-Journal 1. Introduction The Macau peninsula is a small slice of Europe nestled in East Asia, which directly faces Hong Kong across the Pearl River estuary. With a population of a mere 650,000 and a total land mass of only thirty square km, Macau by most standards is incredibly small.