“Little Ice Age”? a Possible Cause of Global Warming
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Sam White the Real Little Ice Age Between C.1300 and C.1850 A.D
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, xliv:3 (Winter, 2014), 327–352. THE REAL LITTLE ICE AGE Sam White The Real Little Ice Age Between c.1300 and c.1850 a.d. the world became, on average, slightly but signiªcantly colder. The change varied over time and space, and its causes remain un- certain. Nevertheless, this cooling constitutes a meaningful climate event, with signiªcant historical consequences. Both the cooling trend and its effects on humans appear to have been particularly Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/jinh/article-pdf/44/3/327/1706251/jinh_a_00574.pdf by guest on 28 September 2021 acute from the late sixteenth to the late seventeenth century in much of the Northern Hemisphere. This article explains why climatologists and historians are conªdent that these changes occurred. On close examination, the objections raised in this issue of the journal by Kelly and Ó Gráda turn out to be entirely unfounded. The proxy data for early mod- ern global cooling (such as tree rings and ice cores) are robust, and written weather descriptions and observations of physical phenom- ena (such as glacial movements and river freezings) by and large of- fer independent conªrmation. Kelly and Ó Gráda’s proposed alter- native measures of climate and climate change suffer from serious ºaws. As we review the evidence and refute their criticisms, it will become clear just how solid the case for the Little Ice Age (lia) has become. the case for the little ice age The evidence for early modern global cooling comes, ªrst and foremost, from extensive research into physical proxies, including ice cores, tree rings, corals, and speleothems (stalagmites and stalactites). -
Sea Level and Climate Introduction
Sea Level and Climate Introduction Global sea level and the Earth’s climate are closely linked. The Earth’s climate has warmed about 1°C (1.8°F) during the last 100 years. As the climate has warmed following the end of a recent cold period known as the “Little Ice Age” in the 19th century, sea level has been rising about 1 to 2 millimeters per year due to the reduction in volume of ice caps, ice fields, and mountain glaciers in addition to the thermal expansion of ocean water. If present trends continue, including an increase in global temperatures caused by increased greenhouse-gas emissions, many of the world’s mountain glaciers will disap- pear. For example, at the current rate of melting, most glaciers will be gone from Glacier National Park, Montana, by the middle of the next century (fig. 1). In Iceland, about 11 percent of the island is covered by glaciers (mostly ice caps). If warm- ing continues, Iceland’s glaciers will decrease by 40 percent by 2100 and virtually disappear by 2200. Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (table 1). Complete melt- ing of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters, whereas melting of all other glaciers could lead to a Figure 1. Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana; sea-level rise of only one-half meter. photograph by Carl H. Key, USGS, in 1981. The glacier has been retreating rapidly since the early 1900’s. -
The Climate of the Last Glacial Maximum: Results from a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model Andrew B
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 104, NO. D20, PAGES 24,509–24,525, OCTOBER 27, 1999 The climate of the Last Glacial Maximum: Results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model Andrew B. G. Bush Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada S. George H. Philander Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University Princeton, New Jersey Abstract. Results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum reveal annual mean continental cooling between 4Њ and 7ЊC over tropical landmasses, up to 26Њ of cooling over the Laurentide ice sheet, and a global mean temperature depression of 4.3ЊC. The simulation incorporates glacial ice sheets, glacial land surface, reduced sea level, 21 ka orbital parameters, and decreased atmospheric CO2. Glacial winds, in addition to exhibiting anticyclonic circulations over the ice sheets themselves, show a strong cyclonic circulation over the northwest Atlantic basin, enhanced easterly flow over the tropical Pacific, and enhanced westerly flow over the Indian Ocean. Changes in equatorial winds are congruous with a westward shift in tropical convection, which leaves the western Pacific much drier than today but the Indonesian archipelago much wetter. Global mean specific humidity in the glacial climate is 10% less than today. Stronger Pacific easterlies increase the tilt of the tropical thermocline, increase the speed of the Equatorial Undercurrent, and increase the westward extent of the cold tongue, thereby depressing glacial sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific by ϳ5Њ–6ЊC. 1. Introduction and Broccoli, 1985a, b; Broccoli and Manabe, 1987; Broccoli and Marciniak, 1996]. -
The History of Ice on Earth by Michael Marshall
The history of ice on Earth By Michael Marshall Primitive humans, clad in animal skins, trekking across vast expanses of ice in a desperate search to find food. That’s the image that comes to mind when most of us think about an ice age. But in fact there have been many ice ages, most of them long before humans made their first appearance. And the familiar picture of an ice age is of a comparatively mild one: others were so severe that the entire Earth froze over, for tens or even hundreds of millions of years. In fact, the planet seems to have three main settings: “greenhouse”, when tropical temperatures extend to the polesand there are no ice sheets at all; “icehouse”, when there is some permanent ice, although its extent varies greatly; and “snowball”, in which the planet’s entire surface is frozen over. Why the ice periodically advances – and why it retreats again – is a mystery that glaciologists have only just started to unravel. Here’s our recap of all the back and forth they’re trying to explain. Snowball Earth 2.4 to 2.1 billion years ago The Huronian glaciation is the oldest ice age we know about. The Earth was just over 2 billion years old, and home only to unicellular life-forms. The early stages of the Huronian, from 2.4 to 2.3 billion years ago, seem to have been particularly severe, with the entire planet frozen over in the first “snowball Earth”. This may have been triggered by a 250-million-year lull in volcanic activity, which would have meant less carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere, and a reduced greenhouse effect. -
Modelling the Concentration of Atmospheric CO2 During the Younger Dryas Climate Event
Climate Dynamics (1999) 15:341}354 ( Springer-Verlag 1999 O. Marchal' T. F. Stocker'F. Joos' A. Indermu~hle T. Blunier'J. Tschumi Modelling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 during the Younger Dryas climate event Received: 27 May 1998 / Accepted: 5 November 1998 Abstract The Younger Dryas (YD, dated between 12.7}11.6 ky BP in the GRIP ice core, Central Green- 1 Introduction land) is a distinct cold period in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. A popular, but Pollen continental sequences indicate that the Younger controversial hypothesis to explain the cooling is a re- Dryas cold climate event of the last deglaciation (YD) duction of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) a!ected mainly northern Europe and eastern Canada and associated northward heat #ux as triggered by (Peteet 1995). This event has been dated by annual layer counting between 12 700$100 y BP and glacial meltwater. Recently, a CH4-based synchroniza- d18 11550$70 y BP in the GRIP ice core (72.6 3N, tion of GRIP O and Byrd CO2 records (West Antarctica) indicated that the concentration of atmo- 37.6 3W; Johnsen et al. 1992) and between 12 940$ 260 !5. y BP and 11 640$ 250 y BP in the GISP2 ice core spheric CO2 (CO2 ) rose steadily during the YD, sug- !5. (72.6 3N, 38.5 3W; Alley et al. 1993), both drilled in gesting a minor in#uence of the THC on CO2 at that !5. Central Greenland. A popular hypothesis for the YD is time. Here we show that the CO2 change in a zonally averaged, circulation-biogeochemistry ocean model a reduction in the formation of North Atlantic Deep when THC is collapsed by freshwater #ux anomaly is Water by the input of low-density glacial meltwater, consistent with the Byrd record. -
The Great Ice Age Owned Public Lands and Natural and Cultural Resources
U.S. Department of the Interior / U.S. Geological Survey____ As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our nationally The Great Ice Age owned public lands and natural and cultural resources. This includes fostering wise use of our land and water resources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environ mental and cultural values of our national parks and histor ical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The Department also promotes the goals of the Take Pride in America campaign by encouraging stewardship and citizen responsibility for the public lands and promoting citizen participation in their care. The Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in Island Territories under U.S. Administration. Blue Glacier, Olympic National Park, Washington. The Great Ice Age land, indicating that conditions somewhat similar to those which produced the Great Ice by Louis L. Ray Age are still operating in polar and subpolar climates. The Great Ice Age, a recent chapter in the Much has been learned about the Great Ice Earth's history, was a period of recurring Age glaciers because evidence of their pres widespread glaciations. During the Pleistocene ence is so widespread and because similar Epoch of the geologic time scale, which conditions can be studied today in Greenland, began about a million or more years ago, in Antarctica, and in many mountain ranges mountain glaciers formed on all continents, where glaciers still exist. -
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice Peter Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Institute for Environmental Physics University of Bremen Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques The Cryosphere Area Volume Volume [106 km2] [106 km3] [relativ] Ice Sheets 14.8 28.8 600 Ice Shelves 1.4 0.5 10 Sea Ice 23.0 0.05 1 Snow 45.0 0.0025 0.05 Climate System vHigh albedo vLatent heat vPlastic material Role of Ice in Climate v Impact on surface energy balance (global sink) ! Atmospheric circulation ! Oceanic circulation ! Polar amplification v Impact on gas exchange between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface v Impact on water cycle, water supply v Impact on sea level (ice mass imbalance) v Defines boundary conditions for ecosystems Role of Ice in Climate v Polar amplification in CO2 warming scenarios (surface energy balance; temperature – ice albedo feedback) IPCC, 2007 Role of Ice in Climate Polar amplification GFDL model 12 IPCC AR4 models Warming from CO2 doubling with Warming at CO2 doubling (years fixed albedo (FA) and with surface 61-80) (Winton, 2006) albedo feedback included (VA) (Hall, 2004) Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques Pancake Ice Pancake Ice Old Pancake Ice First Year Ice Pressure Ridges Pressure Ridges New Ice Formation in Leads New Ice Formation in Leads New Ice Formation in Leads Melt Ponds on Arctic Sea Ice Melt ponds in the Arctic 150 m Sediment -
East Antarctic Sea Ice in Spring: Spectral Albedo of Snow, Nilas, Frost Flowers and Slush, and Light-Absorbing Impurities in Snow
Annals of Glaciology 56(69) 2015 doi: 10.3189/2015AoG69A574 53 East Antarctic sea ice in spring: spectral albedo of snow, nilas, frost flowers and slush, and light-absorbing impurities in snow Maria C. ZATKO, Stephen G. WARREN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT. Spectral albedos of open water, nilas, nilas with frost flowers, slush, and first-year ice with both thin and thick snow cover were measured in the East Antarctic sea-ice zone during the Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems eXperiment II (SIPEX II) from September to November 2012, near 658 S, 1208 E. Albedo was measured across the ultraviolet (UV), visible and near-infrared (nIR) wavelengths, augmenting a dataset from prior Antarctic expeditions with spectral coverage extended to longer wavelengths, and with measurement of slush and frost flowers, which had not been encountered on the prior expeditions. At visible and UV wavelengths, the albedo depends on the thickness of snow or ice; in the nIR the albedo is determined by the specific surface area. The growth of frost flowers causes the nilas albedo to increase by 0.2±0.3 in the UV and visible wavelengths. The spectral albedos are integrated over wavelength to obtain broadband albedos for wavelength bands commonly used in climate models. The albedo spectrum for deep snow on first-year sea ice shows no evidence of light- absorbing particulate impurities (LAI), such as black carbon (BC) or organics, which is consistent with the extremely small quantities of LAI found by filtering snow meltwater. -
Pleistocene - the Ice Ages
Pleistocene - the Ice Ages Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore Pleistocene - the Ice Ages • Stage is now set to understand the nature of flora and vegetation of North America and Great Lakes • Pliocene (end of Tertiary) - most genera had already originated (in palynofloras) • Flora was in place • Vegetation units (biomes) already derived Pleistocene - the Ice Ages • In the Pleistocene, earth experienced intensification towards climatic cooling • Culminated with a series of glacial- interglacial cycles • North American flora and vegetation profoundly influenced by these “ice-age” events Pleistocene - the Ice Ages What happened in the Pleistocene? 18K ya • Holocene (Recent) - the present interglacial started ~10,000 ya • Wisconsin - the last glacial (Würm in Europe) occurred between 115,000 ya - 10,000 ya • Height of Wisconsin glacial activity (most intense) was 18,000 ya - most intense towards the end of the glacial period Pleistocene - the Ice Ages What happened in the Pleistocene? • up to 100 meter drop in sea level worldwide • coastal plains become extensive • continental islands disappeared and land bridges exposed 100 m line Beringia Pleistocene - the Ice Ages What happened in the Pleistocene? • up to 100 meter drop in sea level worldwide • coastal plains become extensive • continental islands disappeared and land bridges exposed Malaysia to Asia & New Guinea and New Caledonia to Australia Present Level 100 m Level Pleistocene - the Ice Ages What happened in the Pleistocene? • up to 100 meter drop in sea level worldwide • coastal -
Glacial/Interglacial Variations in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
review article Glacial/interglacial variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide Daniel M. Sigman* & Edward A. Boyle² * Department of Geosciences, Guyot Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA ² Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Room E34-258, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Massachusetts 02139, USA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Twenty years ago, measurements on ice cores showed that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was lower during ice ages than it is today. As yet, there is no broadly accepted explanation for this difference. Current investigations focus on the ocean's `biological pump', the sequestration of carbon in the ocean interior by the rain of organic carbon out of the surface ocean, and its effect on the burial of calcium carbonate in marine sediments. Some researchers surmise that the whole-ocean reservoir of algal nutrients was larger during glacial times, strengthening the biological pump at low latitudes, where these nutrients are currently limiting. Others propose that the biological pump was more ef®cient during glacial times because of more complete utilization of nutrients at high latitudes, where much of the nutrient supply currently goes unused. We present a version of the latter hypothesis that focuses on the open ocean surrounding Antarctica, involving both the biology and physics of that region. he past two million years have been characterized by of these mechanisms with data from the recent geological and large cyclic variations in climate and glaciation. During glaciological record has been a challenging and controversial task, cold `ice age' periods, large continental ice sheets cover leading as yet to no consensus on a fundamental mechanism. -
Volcanism and the Little Ice Age
Volcanism and the Little Ice Age THOM A S J. CRO wl E Y 1*, G. ZIELINSK I 2, B. VINTHER 3, R. UD ISTI 4, K. KREUT Z 5, J. CO L E -DA I 6 A N D E. CA STE lla NO 4 1School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK; [email protected] 2Center for Marine and Wetland Studies, Coastal Carolina University, Conway, USA 3Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 4Department of Chemistry, University of Florence, Italy 5Department of Earth Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, USA 6Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, South Dakota State University, Brookings, USA *Collaborating authors listed in reverse alphabetical order. The Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250-1850) has long been considered the coldest interval of the Holocene. Because of its proximity to the present, there are many types of valuable resources for reconstructing tem- peratures from this time interval. Although reconstructions differ in the amplitude Special Section: Comparison Data-Model of cooling during the LIA, they almost all agree that maximum cooling occurred in the mid-15th, 17th and early 19th centuries. The LIA period also provides climate scientists with an opportunity to test their models against a time interval that experienced both significant volcanism and (perhaps) solar insolation variations. Such studies provide information on the ability of models to simulate climates and also provide a valuable backdrop to the subsequent 20th century warming that was driven primarily from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. Although solar variability has often been considered the primary agent for LIA cooling, the most comprehensive test of this explanation (Hegerl et al., 2003) points instead to volcanism being substantially more important, explaining as much as 40% of the decadal-scale variance during the LIA. -
Observed Climate Variations and Change
7 Observed Climate Variations and Change C.K. FOLLAND, T.R. KARL, K.YA. VINNIKOV Contributors: J.K. Angell; P. Arkin; R.G. Barry; R. Bradley; D.L. Cadet; M. Chelliah; M. Coughlan; B. Dahlstrom; H.F. Diaz; H Flohn; C. Fu; P. Groisman; A. Gruber; S. Hastenrath; A. Henderson-Sellers; K. Higuchi; P.D. Jones; J. Knox; G. Kukla; S. Levitus; X. Lin; N. Nicholls; B.S. Nyenzi; J.S. Oguntoyinbo; G.B. Pant; D.E. Parker; B. Pittock; R. Reynolds; C.F. Ropelewski; CD. Schonwiese; B. Sevruk; A. Solow; K.E. Trenberth; P. Wadhams; W.C Wang; S. Woodruff; T. Yasunari; Z. Zeng; andX. Zhou. CONTENTS Executive Summary 199 7.6 Tropospheric Variations and Change 220 7.6.1 Temperature 220 7.1 Introduction 201 7.6.2 Comparisons of Recent Tropospheric and Surface Temperature Data 222 7.2 Palaeo-Climatic Variations and Change 201 7.6.3 Moisture 222 7.2.1 Climate of the Past 5,000,000 Years 201 7.2.2 Palaeo-climate Analogues for Three Warm 7.7 Sub-Surface Ocean Temperature and Salinity Epochs 203 Variations 222 7.2.2.1 Pliocene climatic optimum (3,000,000 to 4,300,000 BP) 203 7.8 Variations and Changes in the Cryosphere 223 7.2.2.2 Eemian interglacial optimum (125,000 to 7.8.1 Snow Cover 223 130,000 years BP) 204 7.8.2 Sea Ice Extent and Thickness 224 7.2.2.3 Climate of the Holocene optimum (5000 to 7.8.3 Land Ice (Mountain Glaciers) 225 6000 years BP) 204 7.8.4 Permafrost 225 7.9 Variations and Changes in Atmospheric 7.3 The Modern Instrumental Record 206 Circulation 225 7.9.1 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Influences 226 7.4 Surface Temperature Variations and