FEWS Country Report NIGER

Report Number 5 October 1986 FEWS Country Report NIGER Africa Bureau U.S, Agency for International Development Map 1 Nat ional Population At-Risk, Sim' r Numbers & Locations NIGER: Summary Map September, 1986 Nationally: Morbidity & Mortality rM,, f5 Within Normal Levels Agadez Shistocerca gregaria. Zone of General (Desert Locust) Grasshopper Infestati ns /" : !-J"/Maradi" < Reductio in Dosso Crop Yields Reduction in Generally Good Crop Development Crop Yields Famine Early Warning System Country Report NIGER Anticipating A Good Harvest Prepared for thq Africa Bureau cf the U.S. Agency for !nternational Development Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. October 1986 Contents Page i Introduction 1 Summary 1 Rainfall and Vegetation 2 Map 2 3 Map 3 4 Agriculture 8 Map 4 9 Grasshoppers 10 Map 5 11 Market Prices 12 Graph Series 1,2 15 Health and Nutrition 16 Population At-Risk 17 Map 6 18 Map 7 iNTRODUCTION Th-s is the fif'h of a series of monthly reporti issued by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) on Niger. It is designed to provide decisionmakers with current infor mation and analysis on existing and potential nutrition emergency situations. Each situation identified is described in terms of geographical extent and the number of people involved, or at-risk, and the proximate causes insofar as they have been discerned. Use of the term "at-risk" to identify vulnerable popu lations is problematical since Po generally agreed upon definition exists. Yet it is necessany to identify or "target" populations in-need or "at-risk" in order to determine appropriate forms and levels of intervention. Thus for the present, until a better usage can be found, FEWS reports will employ the term "at-risk" to mean... ...those persons lacking sufficient food, or resources to acquire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis, i.e., a progressive deterioration in their health or nutritional condition below the status quo and who, as a result, require specific intervention to avoid a life-threatening situation. Perhaps of most importance to decisionmakers, the process underlying the deteriorating situation is highlighted by the FEWS effort, hopefully with enough specificity and forewarning to permit alternative intervention strategies to be examined and implemented. Food assistance strat egies are key to famine avoidance. However, other types of intervention can be of major importance both in the short-term and in the long-run, including medical, trans port, storage, economic development policy change, etc. Where possible, food needs estimates are included in the FEV/S reports, it is important to understand, however, that no direct relation exists between numbers of persons at-risk and the quantity o' food assistance needed. This is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset dis aster processes which can be complex in the extreme. The food needs of individual populations at-risk depend upon when in the disaster process identification is made and the extent of its cumulative impact on the individ uals concerned. Further, the amount of food assistance required, whether from intcrnal or external sources, dcpcnds upon a host of considerations. Thus the food needs estimates presented periodically in FEWS reports should not be interpreted to mean food aid needs, e.g., as under PL480 or other donor programs. FEWS is operated by AID's Office of Technical Resources in the Bureau for Africa in cooperation with numerous USG and other organizations. SUMMARY The agricultural scason should end relatively well for Niger. Most of the country's gross cereal needs will probably be met by this tear's harvest. These results will vary iegionally, with farming zones in the south faring better than those further to the north. Some farming areas in more northern, traditionally marginal areas, experienced extended dry periods and late-season attacks of grasshoppers and other pests which will reduce yields. Some of them will harest less than 30% of the cereals they need for a year. Mortality and morbidity data show a cilm situation, yet a lack of good data on the nutritional status of vulnerable populations may hide on-going problems. Populations at-risk are similar in number and location to those last year, at about 530,000 people, mostly in the north and the east. A program of food assistance at about the same levels as last year in those areas will still be necessary. Issues o The late-season grasshoppers and locusts now found in Niger can not be effectively treated this year. Late season committments by donors for grasshopper control would, howevcr, be useful prior to, and during the next rainy season to control eggs just laid. Planning for prevention rather than cure should begin now. Key October Events o Yield estimates based on local information will be available late in October. if they show a different picture than that based on satellite data, a re examination of the national food needs would be nccess ry. o If rains continue into late September and the first three weeks of October, many of the areas which were late in planting, or where replantings occured due to pest damage, will not suffer from large crop yield reductions. RAINFALL and VEGETATION Rainfall during the season has been generally less than that expected from the 30 year historical record. This is true for all areas except the southcrn-mo. t portions of the Niamey and Dosso Departments, the southern half of Maradi Department, and a west-central pocket in the Zinder Department (see Map 3). A look at the map shows how little of the country has had more than 80% of the levels expected compared to the historical record. Despite this, rainfall has been fairly regular in spacing, and generally sufficient for crop needs. It vias Map2 NIGER: Reference Points . \ Bi lim / lferotm\ "ua BrAir u n t a i n s / 1 2 50kin 'S , ; --- Desert "- e Tchin- Tbrzrn - he " Tabaraden 16N --- -- - - - - - - 15N---- n l lan TauousJ iaou Gor MOSE 13 ----Nt-- Rudi Maadi Tessaoua Lake Mad 1 2N --- - M - oure - - -G ya FE S W # 5 4E 6E 8E 1OE 12E Map 3 V NIGER: Rainfall & GRIN OF"PASTURES-- - Ve g e t a t io n T ah o u .n TO DR- 1 5 N Maradi Zinder 14N September 30, 1986 13N CROP iLD U BIOASS GNERALLY SIMILAR TO BIOMASS LE S-DELOP 1 IDtrYIONS DUE TO S ige5 TrAN IN 1o6 12N EARLY IN SEASON CUVi.ATIE RAINFALL AS PERCENT OF 30 YR RCR RAINFALL STATIONS A. TILLABERY B. NIAMEY 72 C. GAYA 15N TAHOUA 7 D. 5 E. BIRNI NKOMI B * __80_ 61 14N F. MARADI _0. ZINMR t8_____I13 H. MAGARIA o I. MAINE SOR A 2--'<9 80ox 12N J. N'omu 0 2E 4E 6E BE 10E 12E FEWS/FWA #5 somewhat late in arriving in many areas, and set the growing season back from 2-4 weeks. If rain continues into latc September and the first three weeks of Octobcr, most areas which were late in planting will not suffer. One finds the major exceptions to minimal crop moisture needs being met in the northern half of Niamey Department and in Diffa Department, where crop yield reductions are likely. These two areas have also had somewhat more of a problem with pests than other areas. In northern Niamey Department, heavy rains came in the early part of September, yet they were too late to improve the crops. Pastoralists, however, will benefit from a late greening of pastures due to these rains. Satellite images show that the vigor of the vegetation is generally similar to that of 1985. Since 1985 was a relatively good year, in terms of harvest and pastures, this tends to reinforce the positive forecast for the food crop and for the availability of animal fodder. Only a complete cessation of rainfall in October could reverse the generally positive look of things now. AGRICULTURE The agricultural season comes to an end in October. Although there is still some risk of change for the worse in these final weeks, the harvest will likely be one of the better ones in thcss last few years. This has not come without some amount of drama. Much of the millet and sorghum crop was planted I to 4 weeks late due to a late onset of rains, or to replantings made necessary by pest damage. Rainfall since then has been only adequate in most areas, sometimes with a mix of dry stretches and heavy downpours. Soil moisture amounts fell several times to minimum crop-sustaining levels in many areas. Diffa Department, a marginal crop producing area in the best of years, has suffered throughout this season from the effects of low, and poorly-spaced rainfall. Another area of particular crop stress includes the northern half of Niamey Department. Areas with a generally positive look to the agricultural campaign include the southern half of Maradi Department, and scattered areas in Tahoua Department. NOAA YIELD ESTINIATES - The initial 1986 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast of millet and sorghum crop yields in Niger arc shown in Table I and 2. This forecast was made on the basis of satellite and 4 rainfall data and does not reflect potential crop pest damage. TABLE 1: NOAA MILLET YIELD FORECAST NOAA DEPT. AVG 1984 1985 1986 86to 86/85 86/84 Yield Yield Yield Yield AVG % % KGS KGS KGS KGS Yield Yield Yield Niamey 380 250 440 320 84 73 128 Dosso 400 270 450 380 95 84 141 Tahoua 390 230 450 510 131 113 222 Maradi 400 270 480 450 112 94 167 Zindcr 430 280 480 460 107 96 164 Diffa 320 2 480 300 94 63 1600 Agadcz NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TABLE 2: NOAA SORGHUM YIELD FORECAST DEPT.

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