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Coupled Model of Statistical Typhoon and Numerical Storm Surge For 1 Coupled Model of Statistical Typhoon and Numerical Storm Surge for Probabilistic Estimation of Surge Height Sungsu Lee1, Chang Hee Won2, Ga Young Kim2 1School of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk Nat’l Univ, CheongJu, South Korea 2Department of Civil System Eng, Chungbuk Nat’l Univ, CheongJu, South Korea Email : [email protected] , [email protected], [email protected] ABSTRACT: Storm surge caused by typhoon is one of the natural hazards that give heavy damage to coastal areas, and many studies have been done to estimate the surge height using various numerical models. But due to the random nature of the typhoons, the design sea level for the coastal structure is a very difficult task to determine. In order to resolve this problem, this paper present a coupled method using a numerical model for surge height estimation and a statistical model for typhoon. For the former, SLOSH as a numerical analysis model, developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is utilized, while a Monte Carlo Simulation of typhoons is employed for the latter. In particular, different models for the radius of the maximum wind (RMW) for typhoons were tried to analyze the effects of RMW on the maximum storm surge height. The results show that the effects of RMW are essential and estimated surge heights are validated by the measured data, provided by the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration. This study is an initial effort for the design water level with probabilistic approach. KEY WORDS: Storm Surge, SLOSH, Monte Carlo Simulation, Radius of the Maximum Wind. 1 INTRODUCTION Over the past 100 years, the number of typhoons affecting the Korean peninsula is about 300 [1] and coastal areas has been directly or indirectly affected by about three typhoons annually on the average. Storm surge caused by the typhoon is one of the main natural hazards that yield much damage to coastal areas. From 2002 to 2011, about 13.8 trillion won (13.9 billion in USD) damages caused by typhoon reaches 65% of the country natural disaster damage [2]. Recent study on climate change projects the increase of the sea water temperature and the rise of the sea level. In addition, typhoon central pressure is expected to decrease about 4.5hPa and the maximum wind speed will increase by about 2m/s around Korea [3]. All of these will be additional factors for the increased damage from the typhoon in the future. Storm surge is defined as a rise in sea level due to pressure drop and wind shear by typhoon and its height is defined as the difference between the predicted sea level and the observed one which can be measured directly at coastal tide stations. The rising water level will counteract the low atmospheric pressure such that the total pressure at some plane beneath the water surface remains constant. It is well known that the sea level rises about 1cm at the pressure drop of 1hPa in atmospheric pressure. In addition, if a typhoon approaches the coast at high tide, the damage caused by the storm surge is maximized in the coastal lowlands. Typical examples of such coastal damages were those occurred by typhoons SARAH(5914), RUSA(0215) and MAEMI(0314). During those typhoons around Korea, heavy rain with strong winds and storm surge resulted in a large body of casualties and property damage along the coast. Recently, a HAIYAN(1330) with recorded lowest ever central pressure of 895 hPa devastated Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, on November 8, 2013. The instantaneous maximum wind speed was about 379km/hour as it passes through the central Philippines, which was the highest level ever recorded by the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Storm surge height at the islands of Leyte reached about 6~7m, causing deaths more than 6100 and missing persons of 1780, property damages of 12.9 billion USD [4]. Figure 1 shows the devastation of the storm surge damage caused by typhoon MAEMI in Korea and HAIYAN in Philippine. Many countries employ numerical models for storm surge forecasting in their early warning system to mitigate related damages, including Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) which utilizes a numerical model developed based on POM [5]. In addition to the real time forecasting, the storm surge height along coastal line needs to be estimated in advance for the purposes of the design criteria of coastal structure and the coastal mitigation plan. 14th International Conference on Wind Engineering – Porto Alegre, Brazil – June 21-26, 2015 2 Figure 1. Storm surge damage caused by typhoon (MAEMI(left), HAIYAN(right)) This study proposes the combination of statistical model of climatological features of typhoon and deterministic model of storm surge. A newly developed typhoon model [6-8] is employed to generate the hypothetical typhoons, which provide the location and the intensity. The storm surge corresponding to each of simulated typhoons is computed by SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) [9]. Since SLOSH was developed for basins and hurricanes around US territory, all of which are much different from those around Korea, this study simulated the storm surge height during typhoon BOLAVEN (1215), which showed good agreement with the observed data provided by Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration (KHOA). Based on these approaches, this paper presents the estimation methodology by the probability density distribution of storm surge heights using Monte Carlo simulation. 2 STORM SURGE PREDICTION MODEL 2.1 SLOSH SLOSH model to predict the storm surge heights, has been utilized in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of NOAA for storm surge forecast with ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model for oceanic, coastal, and estuarine waters). SLOSH has shown shortcomings from relatively low grid resolution for coastline and topography and inability to consider the interaction with the astronomical tide. It was reported that the maximum estimation error is about 20% [10]; however SLOSH has shown its computational effectiveness of fast calculation. It has been of great help when even rougher estimation may be needed at the time of present threat by an approaching typhoon. To reduce these errors, NHC in general carries out the storm surge predictions about thousand times by SLOSH with different parameters for a hurricane to establish the maximum envelopes of water (MEOWs) and maximum of MEOWs (MOMs) which play an integral role in emergency management. 2.2 Governing equations and numerical methods Equations (1) and (2) were derived from 3D Navier-Stokes equations and equation, (3) is continuity, which are applicable to rotating fluid at the free surface. Considering relatively low order of spatial dimension in vertical direction compared to the horizontal domain, the physical quantities were integrated through the depth. SLOSH employs finite difference about time, and central difference about space. U (h h ) (h h ) g(D h)[B 0 B 0 ] f (A V AU) C x C y (1) dt x i y i i V (h h0 ) (h h0 ) g(D h)[B B ] f (A U AV ) C y C x (2) dt y i x i i h U V (3) t x y 14th International Conference on Wind Engineering – Porto Alegre, Brazil – June 21-26, 2015 3 where U and V are the two components of transport on horizontal plane, g is the gravitational acceleration, D is depth of quiescent water relative to a common datum, h is height of water above datum, h0 is hydrostatic water height, f is Coriolis parameter, xτ and yτ are the two components of surface stress, and AΓ···Ci are the bottom stress terms. 2.3 Wind field model SLOSH wind field model has first been developed in the SPLASH storm model [11] and was supplemented by Jelesnianski et al. [9] and Houston et al [12]. The wind field is assumed stationary with the wind direction of the concentric circles about the eye of a typhoon. The wind speed is modeled as equation (4) for the stationary wind, and equations (5) and (6) represents equations of motion in the tangential direction and the radial direction, respectively [13]. Therefore, if the wind speed V(r) is obtained from equation (4), it is possible to calculate a pressure p and a flow angle φ using equations (5) and (6). 2Rr (4) V (r) VR 2 2 R r 2 1 dp ksV dV (5) V Pa dr sin dr 2 1 dp V 2 d 2 cos fV cos V sin knV (6) Pa dr r dr Where V(r) is the maximum wind speed, r is the distance from the storm center, R is the radius of the maximum wind, p(r) is the pressure, φ(r) is the inflow angle across circular isobars toward the storm center, ks is the wind friction coefficient in the tangential direction, kn is the wind friction coefficient in the radial direction, and pa is the atmospheric pressure. 2.4 Radius of the maximum wind (RMW) calculation In computing storm surge height caused by a typhoon, the central pressure and the wind shear are primary driving forces. One of essential parameters determining the effects of typhoon in SLOSH is the radius of maximum wind speed (RMW) which is defined as the distance to the point of the maximum wind speed from the center of the typhoon. There are many different empirical models to relate the central pressure with RMW as listed below. Table 1 Empirical Model for RMW Model Description Remark Number 1 RMW 335.18 66.18ln P [14] 2 ln RMW 2.556 0.000050255P2 0.042243032Lat [15] 3 ln RMW 2.06330.0182P 0.00019P2 0.0007336Lat 2 [16] 4 ln RMW 2.377 0.00004825P2 0.0483Lat [17] where ΔP is (Pn-Pc,) Pn is atmospheric pressure(1013hPa), Pc is central pressure(hPa), Lat is Latitude(degree), and ε is generally use 0.3.
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