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Climate Action in Ontario: What's Next? 2018 Greenhouse Gas

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Climate Action in Ontario: What's Next? 2018 Greenhouse Gas Climate Action in Ontario: What’s Next? 2018 Greenhouse Gas Progress Report How can Ontario rebuild its climate policy? Here’s how to start. The ECO recommends that the provincial government Emphasize efficiency first (e.g., in social housing, develop a climate framework with the following central schools, hospitals) (section 1.3, Appendix B). features: c. Minimize disruption from the cancellation of previous programs (section 1.4). 1. Commit: targets and law a. A climate law that commits the provincial 4. Check and improve government to a credible, long-term program to a. Monitor and report progress to the public, with third- achieve statutory emission reductions that: party validation (section 2.2), and i. meets Ontario’s fair share of Canada’s emission b. Revise plan and actions as needed to stay on track reduction obligations and creates good jobs for targets (section 2.2). (see sections 1.5 and 3.1 of this report), and ii. meets the requirements of the Pan-Canadian Listen Framework to unlock federal funds (section 3.3). At each stage, it is essential to listen to Ontarians. b. Legally binding carbon budgets set well in advance, Ontarians deserve a real consultation, in compliance based on non-partisan, expert advice, coupled with the Environmental Bill of Rights, on every key step with rigorous progress reporting and independent of Ontario climate policy. This includes having an open evaluation (section 2.1). and honest conversation about what climate disruption c. Provincial leadership on adaptation and preservation will cost and who will pay for it (Part 4). Climate policy of natural areas (Part 4). is too important to be decided behind closed doors, without telling Ontarians what is planned or hearing 2. Plan a pathway what they have to say (section 2.2). a. A transparent, achievable, cost-effective pathway to each carbon budget. The model described in this report is a good start. Note: The lowest cost Commit: pathways require much more clean electricity and targets and law Listen: storage than the current Long-Term Energy Plan will Ontarians deserve provide (section 3.1). real consultation at every key step of Plan a Ontario’s climate 3. Take action pathway policy, in a. Effective policy tools to achieve the necessary compliance with the Environmental emission reductions, using the lowest cost pathway, Bill of Rights. public health and ecological integrity to choose This includes an priorities. Appendix A contains a convenient menu of Take action open and honest the potential tools discussed in this report. conversation about what climate b. Act fast and take advantage of work already disruption will cost done, here and elsewhere. Ontario is not starting and who will pay from scratch and does not need to reinvent the Check and for it (Part 4). wheel. Build on the best of the previous programs. improve September 2018 The Honourable Ted Arnott Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario Room 180, Legislative Building Legislative Assembly Queen’s Park Province of Ontario Dear Speaker: In accordance with section 58.2 of the Environmental Bill of Rights, 1993 (EBR), I am pleased to present the 2018 Greenhouse Gas Progress Report of the Environmental Commissioner of Ontario for your submission to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. This Annual Report is my independent review of the progress of activities in Ontario to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Sincerely, Dianne Saxe Environmental Commissioner of Ontario 1075 Bay Street, Suite 605 1075, rue Bay, bureau 605 Toronto, Canada M5S 2B1 Toronto, Canada M5S 2B1 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] T: 416.325.3377 T: 416.325.3377 T: 1.800.701.6454 T: 1.800.701.6454 eco.on.ca eco.on.ca Contents Introduction ........................................... 6 Summary ............................................. 8 PART 1 Ontario (again) needs a climate policy ................... 17 1.1 Why climate disruption matters in Ontario ....................................18 1.2 Ontario’s greenhouse gas emissions were dropping ........................... 35 1.3 How Ontario brought emissions down ...................................... 54 1.4 2018: A wrenching halt .................................................. 66 1.5 Ontario needs climate action .............................................. 80 1.6 Why not leave climate action to the federal government? ....................... 91 PART 2 Commitment and credibility ............................ 95 2.1 Sustaining climate policy over time ......................................... 96 2.2 Consultation: transparency and accountability ............................... 104 PART 3 Tools for reducing emissions .......................... 109 3.1 The least-cost pathway . .110 3.2 The three-legged stool ..................................................118 3.3 Making polluters pay ....................................................120 3.4 Finding ways to pay for solutions ..........................................132 3.5 Regulating climate polluters ..............................................150 3.6 Applying the three-legged stool: freight......................................171 4 Climate Action in Ontario: What’s next? Summary PART 4 Getting ready for what’s coming ....................... 177 4.1 Introduction to adaptation ............................................... 180 4.2 Why do we need to adapt? ...............................................181 4.3 What does adaptation look like? .......................................... 182 4.4 Pay now or pay more later ................................................187 4.5 Is Ontario getting ready? ................................................ 188 4.6 Vulnerabilities, data and incentives ........................................ 193 4.7 Ontario needs strong leadership on adaptation, now ......................... 198 4.8 Recommendations . 198 PART 5 Recommendations ................................... 201 Appendices Appendix A: Policy tools to fight climate change 206 Appendix B: Revenue from cap and trade: what was it used for? 210 Appendix C: Adaptation efforts in Ontario 236 Appendix D: Precipitation trends in Ontario 238 Appendix E: Minimum Cost Strategies for GHG Mitigation for Ontario to 2030, and to 2050 (a report commissioned by the Environmental Commissioner of Ontario) Selected references .................................. 246 Environmental Commissioner of Ontario 2018 Greenhouse Gas Progress Report 5 Introduction The challenges of the transition to a low carbon economy are great, but the opportunities are greater. Accelerating Green Finance, UK Green Finance Task Force for policy and investment changes to have much effect Ontario has a huge climate on reducing the emissions that drive climate change. Industries and investors need government policies challenge. to deliver a steady, reliable signal as to what can be expected, looking ten years ahead and longer. Ontario has a huge climate challenge. It is no longer possible for us to have both a safe, predictable climate Ontario is already on its way. Low-carbon ideas, that sustains our lives and economy, and unlimited innovation and opportunities have bloomed as fossil fuel use. We must take most fossil fuels and Ontarians use their intelligence, resourcefulness, and other sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) out of passion for the future of their children to transform our economy – soon – or the consequences may their use of energy and to look after their communities. overwhelm us. No one wants to contaminate the world Businesses, municipalities, citizen groups, colleges, our children will live in, but that’s what fossil fuels do. universities and many others have shown how, and they Ontario must also get ready for the impacts of climate are ready to do more. disruption, both those that have arrived and those that are still ahead. Ontario is already on its way. Ontarians can pull together to meet this challenge. There are opportunities all over our province to reduce fossil fuel use, to protect natural systems and to build But they cannot do their best without leadership from better lives for us and for future generations. There the provincial government. An effective response to can be challenging adjustments along the way, and we climate change does not have to mean government must all be willing to make some changes and some spending more money, but the government has sacrifices. But the changes we need seem harder and essential roles that no one else can play. Only with scarier than they really are, and they bring along with strong, clear provincial rules, targets and incentives can them important health and economic benefits. individuals, municipalities and the private sector build on the momentum and do their best. To succeed requires both urgency and patience. Urgency, because only urgent action can stem the tide of impacts we are now feeling from climate disruption, The government has essential roles preserve our way of life and turn this challenge into that no one else can play. opportunity. Each additional tonne of GHGs makes the problem bigger. And patience, because it takes time 6 Climate Action in Ontario: What’s next? There is no mystery in the key roles that the provincial • Set rules and incentives that drive down, and government must play. It is the government’s provide alternatives to, fossil fuel use. We all responsibility to: need both the ability and the economic incentive to dramatically reduce our use of fossil fuels. This will • Set strong, legally binding, durable targets only happen when fossil
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