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State of Florida Daily Situation Report

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State of Florida Daily Situation Report Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office Morning Situation Report Wednesday, October 10, 2018 State Emergency Operations Center Activation Level Level 1 Activation SERT On-Call Personnel Position Personnel Phone Email Operations Chief Ashley Davis (850) 544-8373 [email protected] Watch Officer Sam Walters (850) 519-8638 [email protected] Duty Officer Taylor Cheney (850) 545-4047 [email protected] Operations Officer- Day Woody Harvey (850) 815-4001 [email protected] Operations Officer- Swing Claudia Baker (850) 815-4001 [email protected] Operations Officer- Night Jim Lawhon (850) 815-4001 [email protected] Meteorologist Michael Spagnolo (850) 508-0245 [email protected] Plans Chief Ryan Lock (850) 841-9484 [email protected] Logistics Chief Chuck Hagan (850) 528-7506 [email protected] Human Services Director Pam Hughes (850) 528-5638 [email protected] Emergency Services Director Rob Dietrich (850) 815-4321 [email protected] Infrastructure Branch Director Danny Kilcollins (850) 519-8581 [email protected] ESF 8 On-Call Christie Mathison (850) 519-1750 [email protected] Public Information Officer Alberto Moscoso (850) 321-8503 [email protected] DEM Finance and Admin Phyllis Vaughn (850) 879-0723 [email protected] Regional EM Liaison Team Regional EM Liaisons County Location Status / Activities REMLT Manager: Jim Roberts Leon Michael Response Activation Region 1: Wanda Stafford Bay Michael Response Activation Region 2: Brian Bradshaw Franklin Michael Response Activation Region 3: Gina Lambert Levy Michael Response Activation Region 4: Paul Siddall Citrus Michael Response Activation Region 5: Vacant VACANT See Coverage Region 6: Jodie Fiske Leon Michael Response Activation Region 7: Willie Bouie Palm Beach County EM Visit / Michael Monitoring R3 covering Lake, Seminole, & Volusia R4 covering Brevard, Orange, & Osceola R7 covering R6, Indian River, Martin, & St. Lucie Status Normal Operations Delayed Response Out of Service / Unavailable Meteorology Summary Threat R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 Lightning M M M M M M M Flooding M M M M Damaging Wind H H M M Hail Tornado M M M L L Excessive Heat L L Fire Fog Rip Currents H H H H H M H Space Weather Very Low Lake Okeechobee Status: Elevation is at 14.23 ft. Keetch-Byram Drought Index: 337 (+12) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry) Today’s Weather Map Rainfall Amounts Next 24 Hours Meteorology Summary Statewide Overview, Next 24 Hours: Major Hurricane Michael will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle today as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Today and tonight is when the greatest, most significant impacts will be felt across Northwest Florida and the Big Bend. Outer rain bands from Michael will be moving north and northeast impacting northern Central Florida and Northeast Florida. The fast moving rain bands and abundance of tropical moisture will create an environment favorable for strong and severe thunderstorms to develop; this will greatly increase the risk for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) as tornadoes have the potential to be embedded in these outer bands across the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, northern Peninsula, and Northeast Florida. A Tornado Watch is in effect form Bay to Suwannee county including all inland counties until 5:00 pm EDT. A marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) has been placed in the central Panhandle and north of I-4. Heavy down pours will spread inland throughout the afternoon hours as Michael accelerates northeastward, the heaviest rainfall will likely occur this evening and tonight. The tornado and wind threats will also be maximized early this evening. Given the track and intensity of the hurricane, widespread rainfall totals of 4-8” with isolated amount of 10-12” are possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall will begin impacting the Panhandle, Big Bend, and West Coast Tuesday evening, these totals will be maximized east of where Michael tracks. Localized flooding may be enhanced in low-lying and poor drainage areas, as well as on roadways near the coast where additional inundation may already be occurring. Chance of Rain High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to 90 in the Peninsula where drier Today conditions are expected, upper 70s in the Panhandle. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s in the Peninsula and 60s across Northwest Florida. Coastal Hazards / Hydrology Rip Currents: Continuing onshore winds and swells will continue to result in a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic Beaches. Onshore winds and increasing swells from Hurricane Michael will result in a high risk of rip currents for all Panhandle, Big Bend, and some West Coast beaches. Wave heights will be 5-7’ in the Atlantic. Waves will be 3-7’ along the West Coast, and 12-20’ along the Panhandle and Big Bend. Some areas may see wave Rip heights of 25-35’. Marine conditions in the Gulf will continue to deteriorate. A High Surf Warning is in effect from Escambia Current through Franklin Counties. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Outlook Lake Okeechobee average elevation is 14.23 feet, which is 0.78 feet below normal for this time of year. Hydrology: River Flood Warnings are in effect for the Chipola River at Altha, Choctawhatchee River near Bruce, Ochlockonee River at Concord, St. Marks River at Newport, and the Suwannee River at Fowler Bluff. The Chipola, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers will rise into moderate flood stage later this week. Heavy rainfall is expected in some of the outer bands from Hurricane Michael. Rain totals of 4-8” with localized amounts of 12” are Current & possible in the Panhandle and Big Bend today. For more information on specific river stages, please visit the Southeast Forecast River River Forecast Center here. Conditions Tropical Weather Tropics: Hurricane Michael has now strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph, a turn to the northeast is expected throughout the day today. Michael is expected to move ashore over the Panhandle as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. Hurricane Warnings are in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the Suwannee River. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the Suwannee River to Chassahowitzka. Storm Surge Warnings are in effect from the Okaloosa/Walton county line to Anclote River. More specific impact details are available in the tropic packets. Hurricane Leslie is moving toward the south near 10 mph; a slower south-southeastward motion is expected today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, a slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Nadine is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph; some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight. These two systems pose no threat to land. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development; the chance of formation is medium (50%) over the next five days. For more information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Space Weather Current Sunspots Solar Flare Active Watches Past 24 Risk & Warnings hours M-class: Geomagnetic B1 Solar 1% Storm: No Flare X-class: Radiation Storm: No Radio 1% No Blackouts 48 Hour Geomagnetic Forecast 10/10 10/11 Max Kp= 4 (G0) Max Kp= 3 (G0) Chance of Chance of minor activity = 10% minor activity = 10% severe activity = 1% severe activity = 1% Space Weather: The sun remains spotless and the risk of a significant solar flare is near zero. The large coronal hole on the sun’s earth-facing disk is producing a stream of solar winds that should reach Earth this weekend. The space weather threat to Florida is very low. Coronal holes on the Earth- facing side of the sun SWO Communications Systems & Contact Information Equipment Contact Status Comments Phone: 800-320-0519 or 850-815-4001 Operational Fax: 850-815-4979 Operational Email: [email protected] Operational SWO Tracker: https://apps.floridadisaster.org/SWO/ Operational SLERS: DEM Statewide Operational NAWAS: State Watch Office Operational EMnet Message: FL.000- State Watch Office Operational EMnet Voice: FL SWP- State Watch Office Operational State EAS: LP.1 Stations via Emnet Operational FL Interoperable SOFEOC Operational Network: Website: http://www.floridadisaster.org Operational WebEOC: https://eoc.floridadisaster.org/eoc7/ Operational Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?topic_id=Morning_SITREP.
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