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Volume I. Report FINAL DATA INVENTORY, TREND ANALYSIS, RECOMMENDED MONITORING: FLORIDA SPRINGS COAST Volume I. Report FINAL Submitted to: Scott E. Stevens, P.E., Project Manager Southwest Florida Water Management District Surface Water Improvement and Management Section of the Resource Projects Department 7601 U.S. 301 North Tampa, FL 33637 Submitted by: Mote Marine Laboratory 1600 Ken Thompson Parkway Sarasota, Florida 34236 (941) 388-4441 L. Kellie Dixon Principal Investigator December 5, 1997 Mote Marine Laboratory Technical Report Number 547 This document is printed on recycled paper. Suggested reference Dixon LK. 1997. Data inventory, trend analysis, and recommended monitoring: Florida Springs coast. Southwest Florida Water Management District. Mote Marine Laboratory Technical Report no 547. 66 p. and appendices. Available from: Mote Marine Laboratory Library. TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME I. REPORT Page Table of Contents . i List of Figures . iii List of Tables . iv Acknowledgements . v I. Executive Summary ......................................... I-1 II. Introduction .............................................. I-2 III. Project Summary and Goals .................................... I-2 IV. Geographic Scope and Regional Description .......................... I-3 V. Conceptual Model .......................................... I-3 VI. Data Inventory ............................................ I-9 VII. Data Summaries .......................................... I-11 VIII. Selection of Data Sets and Minimum Criteria ........................ I-13 Data Selection and Retrieval Process ............................. I-13 Quality Assurance on Selected Data Sets ........................... I-14 IX. Data Processing .......................................... I-15 X. Results and Discussion by Region ............................... I-26 Waccasassa River ......................................... I-48 Rainbow River ........................................... I-48 Withlacoochee River ....................................... I-48 Crystal River .......................................... I-50 Homosassa River . I-50 Chassahowitzka River ...................................... I-52 Weeki Wachee River ....................................... I-52 Pithlachascotee River ....................................... I-52 Anclote River ............................................ I-52 i Page Rainfall Quality .......................................... I-54 Summary of Trends ........................................ I-54 Data Gaps .............................................. I-56 XI. Monitoring Recommendations . I-56 Projected Use of Monitoring Data ............................... I-56 Recommended Approach ..................................... I-60 Duration of Economic Support ................................. I-62 Summary .............................................. I-62 XII. Literature Cited . I-63 Appendix IA. Citations of Data Summaries Appendix IB. Selected Illustrations of LOWESS Based Trend Analyses VOLUME II. DATA SUMMARIES Appendix IIA. Data Summaries Appendix IIB. SWFWMD Monitoring Stations Appendix IIC. Summary of USGS Stations and Periods of Record Appendix IID. STORET Inventory of Study Area Appendix IIE. Literature Cited Appendix IIF. Summary of Aerial Photographs Inventoried Appendix IIG. Abbreviations of Agencies Water Quality Parameters LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1. West-central Florida Springs coast study area. I-4 Figure 2. Conceptual model of nutrient transfer and pools within freshwater, estuarine, and coastal environments. I-7 Figure 3. An example of conductivity against time (3A), LOWESS smooth of the conductivity against fraction of the year (3B), and analysis of residuals from the LOWESS smooth against time (3C) to determine trend. Linear representation only, as significance of trends was detected with non- parametric rank-correlation analyses. I-21 Figure 4. An example of total kjeldahl nitrogen against time (4A), LOWESS smooth of the parameter against sixty (60) day cumulative rainfall (4B), and analysis of residuals from the LOWESS smooth against time (4C) to determine trend. Linear representation only, as significance of trends was detected with non-parametric rank-correlation analyses. I-23 Figure 5. Station locations of data analyzed for trend: Waccasassa region (5A), Rainbow River (5B), and Withlacoochee River (5C). I-51 Figure 6. Station locations of data analyzed for trend: Crystal River (6A), Homosassa and Chassahowitzka Rivers (6B), and Weeki Wachee River 6C) . I-53 Figure 7. Station locations of data analyzed for trend: Pithlachascotee and Anclote Rivers (7A), NADP rainfall sites (7B). I-55 iii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1. Major rivers of the study area and associated springs with drainage area (km2) and discharge (cfs). (Compiled from Coffin and Fletcher, 1997; Jones et al., 1995; Roseneau et al., 1977; Wetterhall, 1965; Wolfe, 1990; Yobbi, 1989; Yobbi, 1992). I-5 Table 2. STORET parameter retrieval request. I-16 Table 3. Station data combined for analysis. I-17 Table 4. Station designations, descriptions, locations, and responsible entity, as retrieved from the EPA STORET data base. I-18 Table 5. STORET remark codes considered acceptable for inclusion in the data base. ” K” and ” U” values transformed to one half the numerical value. I-19 Table 6. Surface water stations and assignment to rainfall stations for average cumulative rainfall. I-24 Table 7. Well designations of groundwater elevation data used for indications of discharge at stations with substantial groundwater influences. I-27 Table 8. Independent variables to which water quality parameters at each station were smoothed prior to performing temporal trend analysis on residuals. I-28 Table 9. Stations maintained in STORET. Results of trend analyses on LOWESS residuals against time (Kendall’s tau). Direction of slope indicated following significance: “***” = p < 0.001, "***" = p < 0.01, "*" = p < 0.05, “ns” = not significant, “/” = not analyzed since n< 10. I-29 Table 10. The Crystal and Withlacoochee river stations collected by the LAKEWATCH Program. Results of trend analyses on LOWESS residuals against time (Kendall’s tau). Direction of slope indicated following significance: “***” = p<0.001, "**” = p<0.01, "*" = p<0.05, ” ns ” = not significant, “/” = not analyzed since n< 10. I-45 Table 11. Rainfall quantity and quality collected by NADP/NTN near Starke and Sarasota, FL. Results of trend analyses on LOWESS residuals against time (Kendall’s tau). Direction of slope indicated following significance: " *** " = p <0.001, “**” = p <0.01, "*" = p <0.05, “ns” = not significant, “/” = not analyzed since n< 10. I-47 Table 12. Existing data, by region, suitable for baseline or as initiating data for status and trend analyses. I-57 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Mote Marine Laboratory sincerely appreciates the generosity and helpfulness of all investigators who provided information, further contacts, and data sets. Many provided data that we were constrained from analyzing by time, funding, and the focus of the study. We would in particular like to thank all reviewers of the document, Ms. Sandy Fisher and Ms. Laura Mataraza of the Florida LAKEWATCH Program for the use of their data, Mr. Gregg W. Jones and Ms. Theresa A. Williamson of the Southwest Florida Water Management District for their assistance in obtaining District-held data sets, and the National Atmospheric Deposition Program for the use of the rainfall quality data from selected sites in Florida. I. EXECUTIVESUMMARY Increasing nitrogen concentrations in a number of west-central Florida spring discharges has aroused concern for potential nutrient-related impacts to the comparatively pristine, oligotrophic spring runs downstream. This report documents an inventory, retrieval, and analysis of existing data to determine if nutrient-related trends could be observed in other data sets. The project was performed within the framework of a conceptual model of nutrient flow within idealized freshwater, estuarine, and coastal environments. Data were summarized and selected for analysis based on the degree of dependence of the monitored parameter on nutrient concentrations, and emphasized water quality and primary producers. Data inventories were prepared by region with descriptions of pertinent sampling efforts. Data selected for further analysis included those from stations maintained in the EPA STORET database and LAKEWATCH data from the Crystal and Withlacoochee rivers. In addition, National Atmospheric Deposition/National Trend Network data on rainfall quality and quantity were analyzed both as concentrations and as weekly loads to evaluate trends of an increasingly recognized nitrogen source. Trend analyses employed LOWESS (LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smooth; Cleveland, 1979) to smooth water quality parameters against a variety of independent variables, such as season, temperature, cumulative rainfall amounts, well levels, conductivity, and pH. The residuals from the smoothed line were then tested non-parametrically against sampling date to determine if, with respect to the independent variable, parameter concentrations were increasing. The procedure is particularly suited to non-normal environmental data and the processing of large data sets. More than 5,900 parameter-variable combinations were assessed with approximately 1,000 of these significant at the 0.05 level. Of the significant trends, more than 500 were for nitrogen or phosphorus species. Where trends in nutrients were significant, they were generally increasing. Increases were
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