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Clean Capitalism: a Post-COVID Pathway to Economic and Ecological Recovery

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Clean Capitalism: a Post-COVID Pathway to Economic and Ecological Recovery Clean Capitalism: A Post-COVID Pathway to Economic and Ecological Recovery The following report assesses the suitability of the Clean Capitalist Coalition’s CoVictory and Clean Asset Bonds & Loans proposals for the post-COVID UK economy. It finds that, in theory, tax-exempt bonds and loans supplied by the private sector have greater potential for stimulating sustainable economic recovery, and instigating a long-term transition to a ‘clean capitalist’ market to meet our nation’s net neutral emissions target of 2050, than existing recovery budget plans. It is also optimistic about the UK’s free-trade prospects following Brexit; but this perspective is contingent on Britain not belonging to trade groups like the TPP, and instead pursuing independent trade agreements with its international allies. 1 Contents Preface Page 3 CoVictory Bonds & Loans Page 5 Clean Asset Bonds & Loans Page 6 Industry Case Study: New Nuclear Power Page 7 Britain’s Clean Free-Trade Future Page 9 Policy Recommendations Page 13 References Page 14 Authors Connor Tomlinson Sam Payne Sam Curran Michal Bazan Policy Director Policy Researcher Policy Researcher Policy Researcher © 2020 British Conservation Alliance. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Images included sourced from Unsplash, © 2020. 2 Preface One of many catastrophic impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns is their tangible and lasting damage inflicted on the UK’s economy. Britain experienced a record fall of GDP, by 19.5%, in April 2020. Although national output has been increasing since the initial slump, the pace of recovery is decreasing, with production 9.2% below the rate seen in February 20201. Monthly redundancies doubled2; around 150,000 people lost jobs since May, despite the government furlough scheme3. Almost 80% of households reported a reduced income due to lockdowns4. Prior to the second November lockdown, only 85% of businesses were able to resume trading; many of which had lost confidence in the Prime Minister’s ability to remedy the situation5, with the Business Confidence Index at a record low6. The government has already spent almost £180bn on their COVID-19 response schemes, with the Office for Budget Responsibility projecting spending to exceed £300bn by April 20217. As of September 2020, the UK’s net debt (as a percentage of GDP) reached 101.2%8. To aid post-COVID financial recovery, the UK government has instituted a three-tier system of ‘bounce-back loans’ for British businesses. The UK government’s small business bounce-back loans provide between £2000 and £50,000 (up to 25% of annual turnover), are 100% guaranteed, and have no interest for the first twelve months (with 2.5% for a subsequent six years)9. The second tier guarantees only 80% of a £5m maximum loan, with twelve months interest free (again, with a subsequent six years total duration)10. The highest tier of COVID-19 Business Interruption loan guarantees 80% of a £200m maximum loan (with a £45m annual turnover eligibility threshold)11. £33 billion in bounce-back loans has already been issued12. £13.68 billion had been spent by August 16th on 60,409 approved facilities (of 122,885 applicants). With over half of small business loan applications unsuccessful, it’s necessary for the private sector to be enabled to provide financial aid for struggling entrepreneurs. 3 The UK’s recovery period from COVID-1913 is a prime opportunity to implement the foundations for long-term ‘clean capitalist’ policies. A ‘green market’ is already a primary stated interest of Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who included £40m in financial support to create three thousand—and preserve an existing two thousand—‘green jobs’ in his recovery budget proposal14. As proposed by Rod Richardson, in Green Market Revolution, supply-side tax cuts could achieve greater green economic sector stimulation than existing government subsidies. Clean Tax Cuts are marginal tax rate cuts, offering a simpler, more participatory tax benefit’ for any taxpayer, which alleviate unfair tax burdens from non-polluters15. Said cuts would eliminate the primary opponents—‘more so than price’—to the implementation of emerging green technological innovations: ‘bureaucratic and incumbent-monopoly arrangements’, ‘technological constraints on dispatchability’, and the detrimental assertion that clean energy technologies rely on price-adjustment mechanisms16. We do not only need the efficiency in producing ‘If the Holy Grail of climate policy is a new method to mobilise trillions of wealth, but efficiency in creating new ways of dollars for capital investment for a producing it. Entrepreneurs must be global transition to clean empowered to invest and innovate if Britain is to infrastructure, then obviously harnessing the laissez-faire principle recover from the government’s pandemic that created the phenomenal growth response rapidly, sustainably, and engine of capitalism should be considered perhaps the essential competitively. It is crucial that equal opportunity solution.’ for prosperity is maximised, to undo the Rod Richardson centralisation of wealth, and dependency on Green Market Revolution corporate monopolies, engineered by the obstruction of local and start-up businesses. Supply-side tax cuts, and qualified industry investment incentives, will minimise bureaucratic red-tape and dependence on taxpayer funds going forward17. Maximal freedom and accountability is localised to the private sector18, with dependence on taxpayer funds alleviated during economic recovery19. 4 CoVictory Bonds & Loans Predicated on research conducted by Richardson, and Wayne Winegarden, PhD2021, CoVictory Bonds & Loans—a component of proposed Clean Tax Cuts—provide a more cost-effective and inclusive pathway for invigorating ‘clean capitalist’ economic growth than existing government ‘bounce-back loan’ plans. CoVictory Bonds & Loans exempt loan interest from income taxation: enabling banks to account for and price-in risk, incentivising lending to both large pre-existing customers, and new small firms and start-ups. High-risk borrowers would face initial higher rates, but benefit most from interest reduction compared to the taxable rate22. Enabling the private sector to provide financial aid at competitive interest rates equivalent to those offered by government, could provide more recovery assistance, job creation, and investment in emerging industries, independent of taxpayer funded subsidies or schemes23. 5 Clean Asset Bonds & Loans Furthermore, extending the tax-exempt bonds and loans beyond the COVID-19 recovery period specifically for emerging green market industries—could invigorate the clean capitalist transition both Britain’s national, and our global, market requires. Unlike CoVictory Bonds & Loans, Clean Asset Bonds—tax-exempt corporate and mortgage-backed bonds for clean assets—require qualification for recipiency. Said qualifications aim not to further complicate on make costly bond issuance; in fact, they are the only bonds optimised to work across the £35 billion global bond market24. Eligible industries include renewables research and development, carbon capture and storage, waste recycling, combined heat and power technology, AI research and development, nuclear power, electric vehicles, green infrastructure construction, and reforestation efforts. Clean Asset Bonds could make these industries—instrumental to our ecological recovery—more economically appealing by making capital cheaper, and increasing return on equity25. The appetite for adjacent green environmental schemes is reflected by the expansion of the Green Bonds market26. Private investment in growing environmental sectors will secure more sustainable job creation: GraniteShares survey of 1,500 investors with £50,000 on average to invest found renewable energy to be the highest priority investment for young to middle-aged investors in 202027. The American solar and wind industry are outpacing government subsidies, falling in cost at a rate of 85% and 50% respectively since 2010. Taxpayer money evidently isn’t required to incentivise renewables innovation and development; whereas oil and gas continues to be in managed decline. Clean Asset Bonds could further incentivise private investment to accelerate renewables innovation28; moreover—with the trajectory of development trending so positive for green market sectors—there is a decreased likelihood of Clean Asset Bonds defaulting. 6 Industry Case Study: New Nuclear Power Nuclear power for a long time has been driven by state actors. Why? Massive capital costs to build the power stations. Sizewell B (SZB) nuclear power station in the UK, on the coast of Suffolk, began construction in 1988, and was finally commissioned in 199529. The station took less time to build than its sister stations of Wolf Creek and Callaway in the U.S. and cost £2Bn (£5Bn today)30. The latest estimates for EDF’s Hinckley Point C (HPC) power station—housing two EPR reactors, each more powerful than the single Westinghouse Pressurised Water Reactor of SZB—come in at £22Bn31. Borrowing such massive capital required for upfront development investment is currently difficult in the private sector. EDF has had to borrow at an interest rate of 9% rather than the 2% that the government would have been able to borrow at. This disparity alone is estimated to have doubled the price of HPC, for instance32. Safety and regulatory requirements construct further
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