GLOBSEC Megatrends 2020 Trends Triggered & Accelerated by COVID-19 The World After the Pandemic www.globsec.org GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS Trends Triggered & Accelerated by COVID-19 The World After the Pandemic Disclaimer The views expressed in the publication are the outcome of the GLOBSEC Megatrends global brainstorming exercise. Texts were drafted by contributing authors based on their own research, and the views of the participants of the GLOBSEC Megatrends brainstorming. They do not represent any official position of GLOBSEC. The list of consultants includes our global audience who provided their input on subject matter in conversation or in correspondence with the authors during debates organised by GLOBSEC, or who participated in the GLOBSEC Megatrends brainstorming exercise through online survey. Their views are not to be associated with any particular section of the publication unless specifically quoted. 4 GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 Authors List of External Consultants Kinga Brudzińska Patrick Bury Adam Kamradt-Scott Mariana Riquito Michael Chertoff Adam Potočňák Maroš Šefčovič Alexander Beribes Martin Innes Dominika Hajdu Alexander Vershbow Matej Šimalčík Roger Hilton Allan Rock Matteo Bonomi Amanda Sloat Melissa Hathaway Katarína Klingová Andras Inotai Michael Chertoff Andreas Treichl Michal Csonga Ryan McCarrel Annemie Turtelboom Mihnea Motoc Daniel Milo Arthur Rackwald Mikuláš Dzurinda Besim Salihu Miroslav Lajčák Soňa Muzikárová Brent Oglesby Nereo Penalver Garcia Carl Bildt Oksana Antonenko Zuzana Pisoň Carola Garcia Calvo Patrycja Chomicka Zuzana Podracká Catherine Ashton Pavel Mik Damon Wilson Pedro Sousao Daniela Richterová Daniel Martinek Peter Van Praagh David Ibsen Philippe Maze Sencier Miroslava Sawiris Derek Chollet Piotr Mieczkowski Viktor Szűcs Erik Brattberg Rand Waltzman Federica D’Alessandra Raquel Jorge Ricart Nolan Theisen Gabriela Dragan Rastislav Káčer Jakub Wiśniewski Gediminas Vitkus Ruben Diaz de la Plaja Giovanni Giacalone Saila Heinikoski Gordon Bajnai Sally A. Painter Hans-Jakob Schindler Stanislav Matejka Ian Brzezinski Stefano Stefanini Ivan Ogilchyn Steven Clemons Editors Jakub Janda Steven Everts James Townsend Theodora Skeadas Jan Krzysztof Bielecki Thomas Kent Zuzana Pisoň John R. Allen Thomas Wieser Jonathan Eyal Toomas Hendrik Ilves Jakub Wiśniewski Jonathan Katz Tyson Barker Karl Repplinger Yanzhong Huang Khile Jasotn Yasen Georgiev Kristi Raik Zuzana Stuchlíková Kurt Volker Lara Pham Creative concept Lauren Speranza & design Ľuboš Kukliš Lucia Klincová Magdalena Markiewicz Maria Shagina GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 5 Contents 10 38 Foreword | Navigating #3 | COVID-19 has accelerated the post-COVID crisis the digital revolution, with BY JAKUB WIŚNIEWSKI a disruptive impact on our economies and societies BY ZUZANA PISOŇ 16 #1 | Multilateralism is under strain. China is increasingly strengthening its position as a global superpower and the US position will continue to decline BY RYAN MCCARREL & JAKUB WIŚNIEWSKI 26 50 #2 | The pandemic has magnified economic, social #4 | The international mobility and political division in western of people is going to face societies limitations for the foreseeable future BY DOMINIKA HAJDU & DANIEL MILO BY ZUZANA PODRACKÁ 6 GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 56 96 #5 | Digital technology is #8 | The devastating impact of progressively affecting the very disinformation on societies has foundations of security been exposed BY M. CHERTOFF, P. BURY, BY KATARÍNA KLINGOVÁ D. RICHTEROVÁ & V.SZŰCS & MIROSLAVA SAWIRIS 106 #9 | Big government is back and economic interventionism will grow BY ROGER HILTON 70 #6 | Public health is going to become a serious security issue BY ROGER HILTON 82 #7 | The sustainability agenda 120 will become an integral part of #10 | The EU faces a new era of the post-pandemic recovery internal fragmentation BY NOLAN THEISEN BY KINGA BRUDZIŃSKA GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 7 Executive Summary 8 GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 he emergency presented by the COVID-19 pandemic sustainable agri-food systems, and promotion of energy- is shaking up the established order of things, and it is efficient home appliances. Talready clear we are witnessing yet another turning point in modern history. Amidst an ongoing health crisis, the The pandemic has also highlighted the role of digital liberal order also seems to be in dire condition. Met with the technologies, which have played a major role in tackling dual challenge of a global pandemic and economic crisis, this exceptional crisis, ranging from the worldwide use of Western leadership needs to regain momentum and focus lest contact-tracing applications and online collaboration platforms it be replaced by undemocratic regimes. The COVID-19 crisis to e-learning tools. COVID-19 has accelerated the digital might accelerate the power shift between the world’s two revolution, with a disruptive impact on our economies and biggest superpowers, as China is increasingly strengthening societies. The speed of technological change, however, its position as a global superpower, and the US position will does not match by the skills offered on labour markets or the continue to decline. evolution of education systems, which is creating a widening digital divide that needs to be urgently addressed. The fact that multilateralism is under strain is demonstrated by the tumultuous relationship between the US and China, but Digital technology is also progressively affecting the very also within the European Union, as it faces a new era of internal foundations of security. The pandemic has forced everyone fragmentation. The pandemic had a surprising effect on the to spend more time online than before, which includes dynamics of the integration process – accelerating some terrorist groups and the vulnerable populations they cater initiatives, such as the mutualisation of debt and the creation of their propaganda to. We have seen a surge of online terrorist new sources of revenue for the EU budget, while postponing propaganda content, and we need to address these changing or putting a brake on others, including enlargement, asylum, threats in the following decade. migration policies or defence integration. The focus on the virtual space has also exposed the Freedom of movement was certainly one initial victim of the devastating impact of disinformation on societies. The shock-induced tendencies of nation states to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by what most global of crises by the most local of measures. It is the World Health Organization (WHO) describes as an already evident that the international mobility of people is ‘infodemic’ - information chaos wreaked on societies going to face limitations for the foreseeable future. At the EU through the accelerated dissemination of misinformation, level, the question arises whether we can establish a degree disinformation, and conspiracy theory. This was enabled by of trust and a rules-based approach and prevent disruptive the current architecture of our information environment and is arbitrary border checks introduced by some states. In the characterised by the growing importance of the digital realm, unprecedented situation of the first days of the pandemic its increased speed and the dominance of digital platforms most national populations were more than willing to accept as gatekeepers of information, as well as online advertising that nobody can better protect them from the pandemic than revenues and lack of regulation. the local strongman. Increased polarisation and loss of trust with elected officials, institutions, and processes was laid The chaos caused by the flood of misinformation during bare during the pandemic, magnifying economic, social and the pandemic has also enabled a plethora of health-related political divisions in western societies. Amid an economic scams. The onset of COVID-19 has served as a blunt indication crisis, the most pressing deficiencies of modern democracies of the weakness and fragility of states when they disregard – underdelivery, the wealth gap, the influence of oligarchs, and the countermeasures necessary to defeat global health kleptocracy and corruption - must be addressed. challenges. Public health is therefore going to remain a serious security issue. The current pandemic presents an opportunity While the past decade was frittered away by the recovery from to strengthen policies to improve critical protocols like early the 2008-2009 financial crisis, mostly embodied in monetary warning systems, crisis management, and future resiliency, in policy, the next, post-pandemic decade will be marked by the physical and virtual realms alike. a return of ‘big government’ as embodied by increased economic interventionism. In the EU, access to the recovery Considering all of the above-mentioned challenges, it is funds is conditioned by presenting sensible national plans, evident that the post-COVID world emerging from the crisis with a special emphasis on green and digital transitions. These calls for an urgent need to devise new functional models of developments demonstrate that the role of both national operation for society, economy and politics. The goal of the and international governments has risen exponentially, GLOBSEC’s Megatrends report 2020 is to help identify those resurrecting the importance of competent public leadership, trends and shape policy solutions in order to reflect the post- and underscoring the perils of lax decision-making. pandemic era. As recognised at the highest levels in the EU, the sustainability agenda