DOCSLIB.ORG

GLOBSEC Megatrends 2020

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
GLOBSEC Megatrends 2020 GLOBSEC Megatrends 2020 Trends Triggered & Accelerated by COVID-19 The World After the Pandemic www.globsec.org GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS Trends Triggered & Accelerated by COVID-19 The World After the Pandemic Disclaimer The views expressed in the publication are the outcome of the GLOBSEC Megatrends global brainstorming exercise. Texts were drafted by contributing authors based on their own research, and the views of the participants of the GLOBSEC Megatrends brainstorming. They do not represent any official position of GLOBSEC. The list of consultants includes our global audience who provided their input on subject matter in conversation or in correspondence with the authors during debates organised by GLOBSEC, or who participated in the GLOBSEC Megatrends brainstorming exercise through online survey. Their views are not to be associated with any particular section of the publication unless specifically quoted. 4 GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 Authors List of External Consultants Kinga Brudzińska Patrick Bury Adam Kamradt-Scott Mariana Riquito Michael Chertoff Adam Potočňák Maroš Šefčovič Alexander Beribes Martin Innes Dominika Hajdu Alexander Vershbow Matej Šimalčík Roger Hilton Allan Rock Matteo Bonomi Amanda Sloat Melissa Hathaway Katarína Klingová Andras Inotai Michael Chertoff Andreas Treichl Michal Csonga Ryan McCarrel Annemie Turtelboom Mihnea Motoc Daniel Milo Arthur Rackwald Mikuláš Dzurinda Besim Salihu Miroslav Lajčák Soňa Muzikárová Brent Oglesby Nereo Penalver Garcia Carl Bildt Oksana Antonenko Zuzana Pisoň Carola Garcia Calvo Patrycja Chomicka Zuzana Podracká Catherine Ashton Pavel Mik Damon Wilson Pedro Sousao Daniela Richterová Daniel Martinek Peter Van Praagh David Ibsen Philippe Maze Sencier Miroslava Sawiris Derek Chollet Piotr Mieczkowski Viktor Szűcs Erik Brattberg Rand Waltzman Federica D’Alessandra Raquel Jorge Ricart Nolan Theisen Gabriela Dragan Rastislav Káčer Jakub Wiśniewski Gediminas Vitkus Ruben Diaz de la Plaja Giovanni Giacalone Saila Heinikoski Gordon Bajnai Sally A. Painter Hans-Jakob Schindler Stanislav Matejka Ian Brzezinski Stefano Stefanini Ivan Ogilchyn Steven Clemons Editors Jakub Janda Steven Everts James Townsend Theodora Skeadas Jan Krzysztof Bielecki Thomas Kent Zuzana Pisoň John R. Allen Thomas Wieser Jonathan Eyal Toomas Hendrik Ilves Jakub Wiśniewski Jonathan Katz Tyson Barker Karl Repplinger Yanzhong Huang Khile Jasotn Yasen Georgiev Kristi Raik Zuzana Stuchlíková Kurt Volker Lara Pham Creative concept Lauren Speranza & design Ľuboš Kukliš Lucia Klincová Magdalena Markiewicz Maria Shagina GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 5 Contents 10 38 Foreword | Navigating #3 | COVID-19 has accelerated the post-COVID crisis the digital revolution, with BY JAKUB WIŚNIEWSKI a disruptive impact on our economies and societies BY ZUZANA PISOŇ 16 #1 | Multilateralism is under strain. China is increasingly strengthening its position as a global superpower and the US position will continue to decline BY RYAN MCCARREL & JAKUB WIŚNIEWSKI 26 50 #2 | The pandemic has magnified economic, social #4 | The international mobility and political division in western of people is going to face societies limitations for the foreseeable future BY DOMINIKA HAJDU & DANIEL MILO BY ZUZANA PODRACKÁ 6 GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 56 96 #5 | Digital technology is #8 | The devastating impact of progressively affecting the very disinformation on societies has foundations of security been exposed BY M. CHERTOFF, P. BURY, BY KATARÍNA KLINGOVÁ D. RICHTEROVÁ & V.SZŰCS & MIROSLAVA SAWIRIS 106 #9 | Big government is back and economic interventionism will grow BY ROGER HILTON 70 #6 | Public health is going to become a serious security issue BY ROGER HILTON 82 #7 | The sustainability agenda 120 will become an integral part of #10 | The EU faces a new era of the post-pandemic recovery internal fragmentation BY NOLAN THEISEN BY KINGA BRUDZIŃSKA GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 7 Executive Summary 8 GLOBSEC MEGATRENDS 2020 he emergency presented by the COVID-19 pandemic sustainable agri-food systems, and promotion of energy- is shaking up the established order of things, and it is efficient home appliances. Talready clear we are witnessing yet another turning point in modern history. Amidst an ongoing health crisis, the The pandemic has also highlighted the role of digital liberal order also seems to be in dire condition. Met with the technologies, which have played a major role in tackling dual challenge of a global pandemic and economic crisis, this exceptional crisis, ranging from the worldwide use of Western leadership needs to regain momentum and focus lest contact-tracing applications and online collaboration platforms it be replaced by undemocratic regimes. The COVID-19 crisis to e-learning tools. COVID-19 has accelerated the digital might accelerate the power shift between the world’s two revolution, with a disruptive impact on our economies and biggest superpowers, as China is increasingly strengthening societies. The speed of technological change, however, its position as a global superpower, and the US position will does not match by the skills offered on labour markets or the continue to decline. evolution of education systems, which is creating a widening digital divide that needs to be urgently addressed. The fact that multilateralism is under strain is demonstrated by the tumultuous relationship between the US and China, but Digital technology is also progressively affecting the very also within the European Union, as it faces a new era of internal foundations of security. The pandemic has forced everyone fragmentation. The pandemic had a surprising effect on the to spend more time online than before, which includes dynamics of the integration process – accelerating some terrorist groups and the vulnerable populations they cater initiatives, such as the mutualisation of debt and the creation of their propaganda to. We have seen a surge of online terrorist new sources of revenue for the EU budget, while postponing propaganda content, and we need to address these changing or putting a brake on others, including enlargement, asylum, threats in the following decade. migration policies or defence integration. The focus on the virtual space has also exposed the Freedom of movement was certainly one initial victim of the devastating impact of disinformation on societies. The shock-induced tendencies of nation states to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by what most global of crises by the most local of measures. It is the World Health Organization (WHO) describes as an already evident that the international mobility of people is ‘infodemic’ - information chaos wreaked on societies going to face limitations for the foreseeable future. At the EU through the accelerated dissemination of misinformation, level, the question arises whether we can establish a degree disinformation, and conspiracy theory. This was enabled by of trust and a rules-based approach and prevent disruptive the current architecture of our information environment and is arbitrary border checks introduced by some states. In the characterised by the growing importance of the digital realm, unprecedented situation of the first days of the pandemic its increased speed and the dominance of digital platforms most national populations were more than willing to accept as gatekeepers of information, as well as online advertising that nobody can better protect them from the pandemic than revenues and lack of regulation. the local strongman. Increased polarisation and loss of trust with elected officials, institutions, and processes was laid The chaos caused by the flood of misinformation during bare during the pandemic, magnifying economic, social and the pandemic has also enabled a plethora of health-related political divisions in western societies. Amid an economic scams. The onset of COVID-19 has served as a blunt indication crisis, the most pressing deficiencies of modern democracies of the weakness and fragility of states when they disregard – underdelivery, the wealth gap, the influence of oligarchs, and the countermeasures necessary to defeat global health kleptocracy and corruption - must be addressed. challenges. Public health is therefore going to remain a serious security issue. The current pandemic presents an opportunity While the past decade was frittered away by the recovery from to strengthen policies to improve critical protocols like early the 2008-2009 financial crisis, mostly embodied in monetary warning systems, crisis management, and future resiliency, in policy, the next, post-pandemic decade will be marked by the physical and virtual realms alike. a return of ‘big government’ as embodied by increased economic interventionism. In the EU, access to the recovery Considering all of the above-mentioned challenges, it is funds is conditioned by presenting sensible national plans, evident that the post-COVID world emerging from the crisis with a special emphasis on green and digital transitions. These calls for an urgent need to devise new functional models of developments demonstrate that the role of both national operation for society, economy and politics. The goal of the and international governments has risen exponentially, GLOBSEC’s Megatrends report 2020 is to help identify those resurrecting the importance of competent public leadership, trends and shape policy solutions in order to reflect the post- and underscoring the perils of lax decision-making. pandemic era. As recognised at the highest levels in the EU, the sustainability agenda
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Exploring Mental Health & COVID-19: How a Pandemic Could Become
    Eastern Kentucky University Encompass Honors Theses Student Scholarship Spring 5-2021 Exploring Mental Health & COVID-19: How a Pandemic Could Become America's Next Mental Health Crisis Ashley D. Shofner Eastern Kentucky University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://encompass.eku.edu/honors_theses Recommended Citation Shofner, Ashley D., "Exploring Mental Health & COVID-19: How a Pandemic Could Become America's Next Mental Health Crisis" (2021). Honors Theses. 834. https://encompass.eku.edu/honors_theses/834 This Open Access Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at Encompass. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of Encompass. For more information, please contact [email protected]. EASTERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY Exploring Mental Health and COVID-19: How a Pandemic Could Become America’s Next Mental Health Crisis Honors Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of HON 420 Spring 2021 By Ashley D. Shofner Mentor Dr. Molly A. McKinney Associate Professor, Department of Health Promotion and Administration 3 An Abstract Of Exploring Mental Health and COVID-19: How a Pandemic Could Become America’s Next Mental Health Crisis By Ashley D. Shofner Mentor Dr. Molly A. McKinney Associate Professor, Department of Health Promotion and Administration Abstract Description: A pandemic can be described as an epidemic disease that has spread over a large geographical area and has become prevalent in numerous sectors of the globe. In 2020, just over 100 years since our last major pandemic, the 1918 Influenza outbreak, the global community is facing yet another threat: COVID-19.
    [Show full text]
  • A New Political Economy for Europe Post-COVID-19
    EUV0010.1177/1781685820968301European ViewBergsen 968301research-article2020 Article European View 2020, Vol. 19(2) 131 –137 A new political economy for © The Author(s) 2020 https://doi.org/10.1177/1781685820968301DOI: 10.1177/1781685820968301 Europe post-COVID-19 journals.sagepub.com/home/euv Pepijn Bergsen Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented economic support measures from governments across Europe. With this, the crisis has provided an occasion for a significant demonstration of the ability of states to implement policies and deliver services. This could create expectations among electorates of permanent changes to the macroeconomic regime, towards one characterised by a more protective state and a rebalancing between the state and the market. Significant political barriers to such a shift remain. The article argues that, in contrast to the aftermath of the two previous economic crises in Europe, many new ideas are floating around and support for a more protective state is emerging across the political spectrum. The current crisis might thus represent a turning point. Keywords COVID-19, Europe, Political economy, Industrial policy, Fiscal policy Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked European health systems and economies. So far it has not led to any political shocks. A crisis of this magnitude is unlikely to pass by without significant political consequences, though, particularly as it comes at the tail end of a decade of economic crisis in Europe that has not led to a fundamental shift in either the political or the economic regime. The global financial crisis of 2008–9 and the subsequent crisis in the eurozone had already led to demands for changes to the economic settlement.
    [Show full text]
  • European Union, 2020
    08 Malone article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 15:06 Page 97 Administration, vol. 69, no. 1 (2021), pp. 97–109 doi: 10.2478/admin-2021-0008 European Union, 2020 Margaret Mary Malone Institute of Public Administration, Ireland The year was defined by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which unleashed a public health crisis and an associated economic crisis unlike anything experienced in modern times in Europe and beyond. The disease triggered a combined negative supply and demand shock of unprecedented intensity and the EU entered unchartered territory. National and regional serial lockdowns were introduced in a bid to curb the spread of Covid-19 and avoid health systems becoming overwhelmed. In a show of solidarity commensurate with the unfolding economic emergency, EU member states agreed a financial stimulus package of some €1.8 trillion to rebuild the battered EU economy. The package comprised the EU’s budget, or Multi- annual Financial Framework (MFF), for the period 2021–7 plus a temporary novel recovery instrument, Next Generation EU (NGEU). Funds for NGEU are to be borrowed, exceptionally, by the European Commission on the international capital markets. This decision was a landmark departure for the EU. Developments in the institutions of the EU On 1 January Croatia began its presidency of the Council of the EU for six months. A member state since July 2013, this was the first time Croatia had presided over the Council. Its priorities were driven by an unwittingly prescient motto, ‘A strong Europe in a world of challenges’. On 1 July Germany took over the Council presidency with 97 08 Malone article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 15:06 Page 98 98 MARGARET MARY MALONE the challenge of combatting the economic, social and budgetary implications of Covid-19 front and centre.
    [Show full text]
  • CEPI and COVID-19 VACCINES
    CEPI and COVID-19 VACCINES June 9, 2020 Nicole Lurie, MD, MSPH Strategic Advisor to the CEO and Incident Manager, COVID response team CEPI A world in which epidemics are no longer a threat to humanity CEPI accelerates development of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases and enables equitable access to these vaccines for affected populations during outbreaks 2 Image left slide (right-click to replace image) CEPI Strategic Objectives Preparedness Response Sustainability Advance access to safe and Accelerate the research, Create durable and equitable effective vaccines against development and use of solutions for outbreak emerging infectious diseases vaccines during outbreaks response capacity 3 3 Column slide Small images or graphics can be used to highlight key items. These should always be circular CEPI has multiple investments against its priority pathogens MERS Lassa Nipah Chikungunya Rift Valley fever Disease X 5 vaccine 6 vaccine 4 vaccine 2 vaccine 2 vaccine 3 platform candidates candidates candidates candidates candidates technologies 4 COVID-19 portfolio goals Speed Scale Access Developing Covid-19 vaccines at Scaling up and scaling out vaccine Working with global partners to pandemic speed manufacturing capacity ensure fair allocation of COVID-19 vaccines 5 CEPI vaccine development so far…. 23th May 31st Dec 2019 11th March 12th April 14th Feb First meeting of the ACT WHO notified of pneumonia-like case Wellcome Trust launch First cases reported in WHO declares Accelerator cluster in Wuhan, China COVID-Zero resource Africa
    [Show full text]
  • Introduction: Our Athens Spring
    Introduction: Our Athens Spring Let me tell you why I am here with words I have borrowed from a famous old manifesto. I am here because: A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of democracy. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: The state- sponsored bankers and the Eurogroup, the Troika and Dr Schäuble, Spain’s heirs of Franco’s political legacy and the SPD’s Berlin leadership, Baltic governments that subJected their populations to terrible, unnecessary recession and Greece’s resurgent oligarchy. I am here in front of you because a small nation chose to oppose this holy alliance. To look at them in the eye and say: Our liberty is not for sale. Our dignity is not for auction. If we give up liberty and dignity, as you demand that we do, Europe will lose its integrity and forfeit its soul. I am here in front of you because nothing good happens in Europe if it does not start from France. I am here in front of you because the Athens Spring that united Greeks and gave them back • their smile • their courage • their freedom from fear • the strength to say NO to irrationality • NO to un-freedom • NO to a subJugation that in the end does not benefit even Europe’s strong and mighty, …that magnificent Athens Spring, which culminated in a 62% saying a majestic NO to Un-Reason and to Misanthropy,… …our Athens Spring, was also a chance for a Paris Spring, a Frangy Spring, a Berlin, a Madrid, a Dublin, a Helsinki, a Bratislava, a Vienna Spring.
    [Show full text]
  • European Debt Mutualisation
    EU BUDGET POLICY PAPER NO.255 JULY 2020 EUROPEAN DEBT #EUBUDGET #RECOVERY #DEBT MUTUALISATION MUTUALISATION FINDING A LEGITIMATE BALANCE BETWEEN SOLIDARITY AND RESPONSIBILITY MECHANISMS Photo by CafeCredit under CC 2.0 ▪ ANDREAS EISL Executive Summary ▪ Research fellow, Jacques Delors Institute In the upcoming European Council on July 17 and 18, EU member states will fight for a compromise on the European Commission’s main project to tackle the economic fallout ▪ MATTIA TOMAY of the Covid-19 crisis across Europe: a new 7-year EU budget propped up with a temporary Political scientist, Recovery Instrument (Next Generation EU) amounting to EUR 750 bn of jointly issued debt Member of the Académie and to be passed on to EU countries as grants and loans. It is one of the most ambitious in Notre Europe 2019-2020 a long line of proposals for European debt mutualisation. While joint borrowing can carry a lot of advantages, debt mutualisation has always been very controversial. Confrontations between those countries supposedly benefiting and losing from mutualising debt have repeatedly centered on the legitimate balance of solidarity and responsibility that such debt implies. Democratic legitimacy in solidarity-responsibility arrangements can be achieved when they can deliver in terms of output legitimacy (being effective in economic terms), input legitimacy (ensuring sufficient room for domestic politics in deciding national policy trajectories) and throughput legitimacy (being run in a transparent and accountable manner). THINKING EUROPE • PENSER L’EUROPE• EUROPA DENKEN 1 ▪ 20 This paper analyses the solidarity-responsibility arrangements of various proposals and rea- lized forms of European debt mutualisation made over the last decades to evaluate their shortcomings and potential in finding a legitimate balance of solidarity and responsibility mechanisms for all EU member states.
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus): What We Know, What We Don’T Know, and How We Can Plan Within Our Communities
    COVID-19 (novel coronavirus): What we know, what we don’t know, and how we can plan within our communities March 5, 2020 Andrew Lover, MS MPH PhD Dept. of Biostatistics and Epidemiology [email protected] School of Public Health and Health Sciences Updated Mar 7; v1.1. Overview 1. Some background 2. The virus and epidemiology 3. Response measures and community preparedness 4. Q & A School of Public Health and Health Sciences 2 Disclaimers All opinions in this talk are my personal views, and do not represent those of the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology; the School of Public Health and Health Sciences; or UMass-Amherst. Guidance is being rapidly updated; always consult your local, state and federal authorities for the most up-to-date information. (mass.gov and cdc.gov) General note: most/many current studies are preprints and are not yet peer reviewed; and data change hourly/daily. School of Public Health and Health Sciences 3 Terminology § Coronaviruses are a small class of human pathogens; four of which cause ‘normal’ respiratory infections. § Two others may cause severe infections: SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV. MERS-CoV § Original name (Jan 2020): Wuhan flu or novel coronavirus-2019 § Current standard (allows for expansion) § Illness: COVID-19 (“coronavirus disease”) § Virus: SARS-CoV-2 § This structure parallels HIV/AIDS School of Public Health and Health Sciences 4 Population-level metrics § Endemic: The constant presence of a disease or infectious agent within a given geographic area or population group § Epidemic: The occurrence in a community or region of cases of an illness clearly in “excess of normal expectancy” (preferred) § Outbreak: An epidemic limited to localized increase in the incidence of a disease (avoid) § Pandemic: An epidemic occurring over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people (national or global), but no specific criteria School of Public Health and Health Sciences 5 The first signal….
    [Show full text]
  • Congressional Record United States Th of America PROCEEDINGS and DEBATES of the 112 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION
    E PL UR UM IB N U U S Congressional Record United States th of America PROCEEDINGS AND DEBATES OF THE 112 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION Vol. 157 WASHINGTON, FRIDAY, JANUARY 7, 2011 No. 3 Senate The Senate was not in session today. Its next meeting will be held on Tuesday, January 25, 2011, at 10 a.m. House of Representatives FRIDAY, JANUARY 7, 2011 The House met at 9 a.m. and was PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE GRESSIONAL RECORD daily, and I will called to order by the Speaker pro tem- The SPEAKER pro tempore. Will the continue to do so until Washington pore (Mrs. MILLER of Michigan). gentleman from Illinois (Mr. JACKSON) takes responsibility and ends its reck- less spending addiction. f come forward and lead the House in the Pledge of Allegiance. f DESIGNATION OF THE SPEAKER Mr. JACKSON of Illinois led the PRO TEMPORE Pledge of Allegiance as follows: SEND YOUR RESUMES The SPEAKER pro tempore laid be- I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the (Mr. JACKSON of Illinois asked and fore the House the following commu- United States of America, and to the Repub- was given permission to address the nication from the Speaker: lic for which it stands, one nation under God, House for 1 minute and to revise and indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. WASHINGTON, DC, extend his remarks.) January 7, 2011. f Mr. JACKSON of Illinois. Madam I hereby appoint the Honorable CANDICE S. ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE SPEAKER Speaker, as we enter 2011, we find our- MILLER to act as Speaker pro tempore on selves in the same jobs situation as in this day.
    [Show full text]
  • Frugal Member States Vs. the Eu : Not Too Much Please
    PENSER L’EUROPE • THINKING EUROPE • EUROPA DENKEN BLOG POST BLOG POST FRUGAL MEMBER STATES VS. THE EU : NOT TOO MUCH PLEASE 27/10/2020 | DANIEL DEBOMY | DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP Daniel Debomy, Associate Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute, Director of OPTEM 2020 has been a year marked by arduous negotiations which resulted in the adoption of the recovery plan for the European economy, hit hard by the consequences of the COVID 19 pandemic. During these negotiations, the leaders of so-called “Frugal Four” Member States expressed their major disinclination towards a solidarity-based commit- ment to recovery (and ultimately only came around when granted substantial financial concessions): the Netherlands – although a founding Member State of the European Community –, Denmark, Sweden and Austria. As the negotiations between European institutions continue, in particular with a view to finalising the European Mul- tiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027, this paper analyses the state of public opinion towards the EU in these four countries, as expressed prior to these events. This paper is based on data from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey conducted in the autumn of 2019 and from the 2019 surveys of the European Parliament, the most recent comparable data available on the state of public opinion. Positive opinions regarding the economic situation Citizens of the “Frugal Four” Member States stand out for their highly positive opinions with regard to the economic situation in their country: 90% deem the situation positive in the Netherlands as in Denmark and 76% in Sweden and Austria - all scores which are much greater than the European average (47%).
    [Show full text]
  • What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic
    26 EconPol 2020 October POLICY REPORT Vol. 4 World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic Dorine Boumans, Pauliina Sandqvist and Stefan Sauer (EconPol Europe, ifo Institute) headed by KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle KOF Swiss Economic Institute EconPol POLICY REPORT A publication of EconPol Europe European Network of Economic and Fiscal Policy Research Publisher and distributor: ifo Institute Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany Telephone +49 89 9224-0, Telefax +49 89 9224-1462, email [email protected] Editors: Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest Reproduction permitted only if source is stated and copy is sent to the ifo Institute. EconPol Europe: www.econpol.eu World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on World-Wide Effects of the Pandemic Dorine Boumans, Pauliina Sandqvist and Stefan Sauer1 The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a detrimental effect on global health care systems, with a ripple effect on every aspect of human life as we know it. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 as a global emergency (WHO, 2020). In response, to “flatten the curve”, governments have enforced border shutdowns, travel restrictions, and general lockdowns with numerous social distancing measures such as closed schools, shops, services and, to a lesser extent, the manufacturing industry. This in turn led to an impending economic crisis and recession all around the globe. The IMF World Economic Outlook of June 2020 projects global growth at -4.9 percent in 2020 (IMF, 2020a). After more than six months of coronavirus being part of our life, most economies have opened up again, although with certain restrictions against the spread of the virus.
    [Show full text]
  • Thomas Wieser Director General Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance
    Thomas Wieser Director General Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance VOWI_Tagung_2011.indb 134 03.10.11 08:28 Macroeconomic Imbalances within the EU: Short and Long Term Solutions What is an Imbalance? tion of countries, and may have impor- What is a macroeconomic imbalance? tant spillover effects. It has an array of And do macroeconomic imbalances lending instruments at its disposal that matter? Two easy questions. Put them can be utilized if imbalances lead to to an economist and she or he will most capital flows that are inadequate for likely give you an authoritative descrip- satisfying the external financing needs tion or definition of such an imbalance; of a country. The G 20 process has re- and will then proceed to authoritatively discovered this issue in the light of tell you that they either matter enor- global imbalances in current account mously, or not at all. A pattern will positions, and has agreed on a surveil- emerge: first, the definitions or de- lance exercise. scriptions will not be consistent with each other; second: if they matter, then usually abroad. I will start off with a simple defini- tion: a macroeconomic imbalance is the (negative or positive) position of a do- mestic, external or financial variable in relation to a certain norm. This posi- tion may – if uncorrected over time – make the national savings/investment balance so untenable that it self-cor- rects abruptly, thereby causing signifi- cant adjustment shocks domestically; in the case of large economies also abroad. Imbalances are caused by economic policies, or by their absence. They are Addressing Potential Imbalances in the Euro Area therefore a lagged indicator of other variables that developed at a pace or in a Within the European Union risks of direction that is not commensurate macroeconomic imbalances were rec- with the overall balanced development ognized in the Treaty.
    [Show full text]
  • Eurogroup: Hans Vijlbrief Appointed President of the Eurogroup Working Group
    PRESS Council of the EU EN PRESS RELEASE 25/18 22/01/2018 Eurogroup: Hans Vijlbrief appointed President of the Eurogroup working group The Eurogroup today appointed Hans Vijlbrief as the new President of the Eurogroup working group (EWG). He will take office as of 1 February 2018 and will serve a two-year term. He will succeed Thomas Wieser who was the first full-time EFC/EWG president and held the position since 2012. The President of the Eurogroup Working Group is elected by its members and then appointed by the Eurogroup. He was elected to this position by the EWG on 15 December 2017. The office of the President of the EWG is located at the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU, in Brussels. The EWG prepares the meetings of the Eurogroup and coordinates on euro-area specific matters. It is composed of representatives of the euro-area member states of the Economic and Financial Committee, the European Commission and the European Central Bank. Hans Vijlbrief will also serve as the President of the Economic and Financial Committee, which prepares the ECOFIN Council and promotes policy coordination among EU member states. He was elected to this position by the EFC on 15 December 2017. Until now, Hans Vijlbrief has held numerous positions at the ministry of economic affairs and at the ministry of finance of the Netherlands. Since October 2012, he has been serving as treasurer general at the ministry of finance of the Netherlands and a principal adviser to the minister of finance of the Netherlands on Eurogroup matters.
    [Show full text]