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EOS Newsletter MARCH 2020

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EOS Newsletter MARCH 2020 PROJECT EOS March 15, 2020 EARTHS IN OTHER SOLAR SYSTEMS Recent Publications ACCESS: A Visual toNear-infrared Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter WASP-43b with Evidence of H2O, but No Evidence of Na or K ………………………………. Identifying Exo-Earth Candidates in Direct Imaging Data through PROJECT EOS Bayesian Classification ………………………………. Nautilus: A Very Large-Aperture, Ultralight Space Telescope for Exoplanet Exploration, Time- domain Astrophysics, and Faint Objects ………………………………. EPOS: Exoplanet Population Earths in Other Solar Systems is part of NASA’s Nexus for Observation Simulator Exoplanetary System Science program, which carries out ……………………………….. coordinated research toward to the goal of searching for and ACCESS: the Arizona-CfA- determining the frequency of habitable extrasolar planets with Catolica-Carnegie Exoplanet atmospheric biosignatures in the Solar neighborhood. Spectroscopy Survey Our interdisciplinary EOS team includes astrophysicists, ……………………………….. Exoplanet Population Synthesis in planetary scientists, cosmochemists, material scientists, the Era of Large Exoplanets chemists and physicists. Surveys The Principal Investigator of EOS is Daniel Apai (University of ……………………………….. Arizona). The project’s lead institutions are The University of The Sun-like Stars Opportunity ……………………………….. Arizona‘s Steward Observatory and Lunar and Planetary Life Beyond the Solar System: Laboratory. Remotely Detectable The EOS Institutional Consortium consists of the Steward Biosignatures Observatory and the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory of the ……………………………….. Planet formation and migration University of Arizona, the National Optical Astronomy near the silicate sublimation front Observatory, the Department of Geophysical Sciences at the in protoplanetary disks University of Chicago, the Planetary Science Institute, and the ……………………………….. Catholic University of Chile. Search for L5 Earth Trojans with For a complete list of publications, please visit the DECam EOS Library on the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System. eos-nexus.org 1 PROJECT EOS March 15, 2020 EARTHS IN OTHER SOLAR SYSTEMS Recent Publications (cont.) Characterization and Properties of Earth-like Origins Seminar Planets ………………………………. The Origins Seminar series brings together ISM, star Cloud Atlas: High-precision and planet formation people, exoplanets experts, HST/WFC3/IR Time-Resolved planetary scientists and astrobiologists. Topics range Observations of Directly- from molecular clouds through star and planet Imaged Exoplanet formation to exoplanets detection and HD106906b characterization and astrobiology. ………………………………. The ACCESS Exoplanet The seminar series is organized by Serena Kim (SO), Transmission Spectroscopy Sebastiaan Krijt (SO) and Kamber Schwarz (LPL) from Survey Steward Observatory/Dept. of Astronomy and Dept. ………………………………. of Planetary Sciences (LPL) at the University of Arizona. Nautilus: A Biosignature The Origins Seminar series is partly supported by the Survey in a Thousand Exo- Earths in Other Solar Systems NExSS team. Earths During the summer, talks take place 11:00am – ……………………………….. 12:00pm (PT) on Mondays. To receive weekly updates The role of planetesimals and advertisements for talks, please subscribe to the and gas in the orbital mailing list. If you are interested in presenting your assembly of work during one of the open slots, feel free to contact close-in exoplanets the organizers. ……………………………….. During the Spring and Summer 2020 the Origins Hints on the origins of seminar meets via zoom due to the Covid-19 particle traps in Pandemic. We may continue to meet via zoom in the protoplanetary disks given Fall 2020, depending on the status of the Pandemic by the Mdust−M⋆ relation and guidelines by the department and the University. ……………………………….. The zoom information is sent via email. The evolution of dust-disk sizes from a homogeneous analysis of 1-10 Myr-old stars eos-nexus.org 2 PROJECT EOS March 15, 2020 ACCESS: A Visual to Near-infrared Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter WASP-43b with Evidence of H2O, but No Evidence of Na or K Weaver, Ian C.; López-Morales, Mercedes; Espinoza Néstor; Rackham, Benjamin V.; Osip, David J.; Apai, Dániel; Jordán Andrés; Bixel, Alex; Lewis, Nikole K.; Alam Munazza K.; Kirk, James; McGruder, Chima; Rodler Florian; Fienco, Jennifer The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 159, Number 1 We present a new ground-based visual transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b, obtained as part of the ACCESS Survey. The spectrum was derived from four transits observed between 2015 and 2018, with combined wavelength coverage between 5300 and 9000 Å and an average photometric precision of 708 ppm in 230 Å bins. We perform an atmospheric retrieval of our transmission spectrum combined with literature Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3 observations to search for the presence of clouds/hazes as well as Na, K, Hα, and H2O planetary absorption and stellar spot contamination over a combined spectral range of 5318–16420 Å. We do not detect a statistically significant presence of Na I or K I alkali lines, or Hα in the atmosphere of WASP-43b. We find that the observed transmission spectrum can be best explained by a combination of heterogeneities on the photosphere of the host star and a clear planetary atmosphere with H2O. This model yields a log evidence of 8.26 ± 0.42 higher than a flat (featureless) spectrum. In particular, the observations marginally favor the presence of large, low- contrast spots over the four ACCESS transit epochs with an average covering fraction and temperature contrast ΔT = 132 K ± 132 K. Within the planet's atmosphere, we recover a log H2O volume mixing ratio of which is consistent with previous H2O abundance determinations for this planet. Figure 1: Raw integrated white-light-curve flux of WASP-43 (gray) and comparison stars (color) observed with IMACS, centered 1 hr around the predicted midtransit time. We calculated the predicted midtransit times with Swarthmore College’s online transit finding tool (https://astro.swarthmore.edu/transits.cgi). eos-nexus.org 3 PROJECT EOS March 15, 2020 Identifying Exo-Earth Candidates in Direct Imaging Data through Bayesian Classification Bixel, Alex; Apai, Dániel The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 159, Number 1 Future space telescopes may be able to directly image between approximately 10 and 100 planets with sizes and orbits consistent with habitable surface conditions ("exo-Earth candidates" or EECs), but observers will face difficulty in distinguishing these from the potentially hundreds of nonhabitable "false positives" which will also be detected. To maximize the efficiency of follow-up observations, a prioritization scheme must be developed to determine which planets are most likely to be EECs. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the likelihood that any directly imaged extrasolar planet is a true EEC by interpreting the planet's apparent magnitude and separation in the context of existing exoplanet statistics. As a specific application of this general framework, we use published estimates of the discovery yield of future space- based direct-imaging mission concepts to conduct "mock surveys" in which we compute the likelihood that each detected planet is an EEC. We find that it will be difficult to determine which planets are EECs with >50% confidence using single-band photometry immediately upon their detection. The best way to reduce this ambiguity would be to constrain the orbit of a given planet by revisiting the system multiple times or through a radial velocity precursor survey. Astrometric or radial velocity constraints on the mass of the planet would offer a lesser benefit. Finally, we show that a Bayesian approach to prioritizing targets would improve the follow-up efficiency of a direct imaging survey versus a blind approach using the same data. For example, the prioritized approach could reduce the amount of integration time required for the spectral detection (or rejection) of water absorption in most EECs by a factor of two. Figure 1: To illustrate the degeneracies which affect the interpretation of direct imaging data, we simulate the detection of a planet orbiting a Solar-type star at 15 pc (center panel), as well as several planets of varying sizes, orbits, and albedos which have a similar projected separation and magnitude (surrounding panels). It is not clear whether this data point represents a true EEC, or one of many potential false positives. The color and size of each circle represents the potential radius of the planet; only green points are approximately Earth-sized (∼0.8–1.6 R⊕). The color of the potential orbit represents its insolation; only green orbits are in the habitable zone. An “x” marks the planet’s closest approach to the observer. eos-nexus.org 4 PROJECT EOS March 15, 2020 Nautilus: A Very Large-Aperture, Ultralight Space Telescope for Exoplanet Exploration, Time-domain Astrophysics, and Faint Objects Apai, Dániel; Bixel, Alex; Rackham, Benjamin V.; Schneider, Glenn; Milster, Tom D.; Kim, Dae Wook; Liang, Ronguang; Arenberg, Jonathan; Grunsfeld, John Astro2020: Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics, APC white papers, no. 141 Nautilus is a Probe-class mission concept that will explore the diversity of rocky exoplanets through transit spectroscopy, characterize habitable planets, and search for biosignatures in nearby transiting planets. By providing a larger collecting area than HST and JWST combined, Nautilus will obtain low-resolution spectra simultaneously in the visual (0.5–1 m) and near-infrared (1– 1.7 m). It will observe >1,000 transits
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