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Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Jeanne

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Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Jeanne Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Jeanne 13-28 September 2004 Miles B. Lawrence and Hugh D. Cobb National Hurricane Center 7 January 2005 Modified 10 August 2011 to update damage estimate Modified 8 September 2014 to change “Broward” to “Brevard” county Jeanne produced heavy rain over Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and caused an estimated 3000 or more deaths in Haiti, from torrential rainfall flooding. Finally, Jeanne hit the northern Bahamas and then the central Florida east coast as a category three hurricane. a. Synoptic History Jeanne formed from a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean on 7 September. The wave moved uneventfully across the Atlantic until a tropical depression formed from it on 13 September as it approached the Leeward Islands. Jeanne’s best track begins at 1800 UCT on this day and the “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is plotted in Fig. 1. Maximum 1-min. wind speeds and minimum central surface pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. All of the best track data are listed in Table 1. From 13 to 18 September, the motion was toward the west-northwest at a slow forward speed of 5 to 10 kt, under the steering flow of a subtropical high pressure ridge located to Jeanne’s north. The cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm on 14 September while it moved slowly over the Leeward Islands. Continuing west-northwestward, its circulation moved slowly over the Virgin Islands and the center moved inland over southeastern Puerto Rico on 15 September when maximum sustained surface winds reached 60 kt. The center moved across Puerto Rico, then over the Mona Passage and inland at the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Jeanne was a hurricane with 70-kt winds while over the Mona Passage and during the Dominican Republic landfall, but then weakened over the rough terrain of Hispaniola. By 1800 UTC on 17 September, the cyclone briefly weakened to a depression and moved over Atlantic waters just north of Hispaniola. On 18 September and in a weakened condition, the low level center moved westward away from the deep convection and dissipated and a new center reformed well to the northeast of the dissipated old center. Jeanne’s slow forward motion across the Caribbean motion contributed to torrential rainfall along its path. These rains and resultant fresh-water flooding and mudslides caused thousands to die in Haiti. While Jeanne was dumping rain over the Caribbean countries, Hurricane Ivan moved over the Gulf of Mexico and inland across the southeastern United States. By 18 September, Ivan’s mid- level circulation had combined with an extratropical short wave trough in the westerlies and moved to the northeastern U.S. coast where it eroded the ridge to the north of Jeanne. This placed Jeanne in a weak steering flow that persisted for five days. Jeanne first moved slowly northward over the southeastern Bahamas as a tropical storm and then moved in an anticyclonic loop about 500 n mi east of the northwestern Bahamas. Jeanne gradually strengthened to a hurricane with 85-kt winds by the time it completed this loop on 23 September. By 23 September, the extratatropical trough previously located over the northeastern U.S. coast moved eastward and was replaced by a large deep-layer migratory ridge that propelled Jeanne on a track just north of due westward. On 24 September, Jeanne moved over its own previous track from a few days earlier and encountered cooler waters caused by upwelling from the hurricane. This is believed to be a factor in the decreasing of the maximum winds from 85 kt to 70 kt by 0000 UTC on 24 September. Continuing westward at 10 to 12 kt and moving away from the upwelled cooler water, the winds increased to 100 kt (category three on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale) by 1200 UTC on 25 September as the center moved over Abaco Island and then Grand Bahama Island in the northern Bahamas. Jeanne made landfall on the east coast of Florida early on 26 September with the center of its 50-n mi diameter eye crossing the coast at the southern end of Hutchinson Island just east of Stuart at 0400 UTC on 26 September. Maximum winds at landfall are estimated at 105 kt over a very small area north of the center and it is not clear whether these strongest winds reached the coast or remained over water.. Jeanne moved across central Florida while weakening and began to recurve around the western periphery of the migratory ridge mentioned above. The hurricane weakened to a tropical storm while centered about 30 n mi north of Tampa at 1800 UTC on 26 September and then weakened to a tropical depression about 24 h later while moving northward across central Georgia accompanied by heavy rain. The depression, still accompanied by heavy rain moved over the Carolinas, Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula. It merged with a frontal zone and became extratropical at 0000 UTC on 29 September while moving eastward off of the U.S mid-Atlantic coast. b. Meteorological Statistics Wind and pressure observations in Jeanne (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command. Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful. Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force and higher associated with Jeanne are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3. Unofficial reports indicate that Jeanne was responsible for 8 to 12 in of rainfall over Guadeloupe and nearby islands. Jeanne made landfall as a tropical storm around 1600 UTC on September 15 across the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico. The observing site at San Juan Airport recorded a sustained wind of 43 kt and the St. Croix Airport reported a sustained wind of 45 kt. The highest reported 2 storm total rainfall amount over the area was at Camp Garcia in Vieques, which recorded 23.75 in. Generally, total rainfall amounts averaged from 5 to 15 in with some locally higher amounts. This magnitude of rainfall produced major and historical flooding at many river forecast points within Puerto Rico. The U.S. and British Virgin Islands also experienced heavy flooding as implied by two reports of over 12 in of rain from St. Thomas. Jeanne produced torrential rains and tropical storm force winds across much of Hispaniola, with the possibility of hurricane force winds over extreme eastern Dominican Republic. Although no rainfall observations are available, some areas of Haiti, especially in Gonaives, were completely devastated from massive flooding and mudslides. The highest best track estimated 1-min surface winds are 105 kt from 1800 UTC to 0000 UTC on 25 and 26 September. The hurricane was moving across Grand Bahama Island and nearing the Florida east coast during this time. The value of 105 kt is based primarily on aircraft wind speeds of 113 kt measured at a flight level of 700 mb at 1429 UTC on 25 September and again at 0228 UTC on 26 September, reduced to a surface value of 102 kt using a 0.90 reduction factor. This wind speed estimate is for an “over water” wind. The aircraft wind observed at 0228 UTC was at a location about 35 n mi north of the center of the eye and just offshore of the Florida east coast east of Sebastian. It is possible that wind speeds of near 105 kt may have affected a small area of the coastline in the vicinity of Sebastian, although there are no surface observations at the coast to confirm this. In addition, Step frequency microwave radiometer wind measurements of up to 99 kt were obtained from a NOAA aircraft just prior to landfall. Wind speeds of the same magnitude are expected to have also affected portions of Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands. Table 3 lists several locations that reported hurricane force sustained winds of 64 kt or greater. The highest sustained surface wind reported was 79 kt at the Melbourne NWS office. This was observed at 0818 UTC when the center was about 45 n mi southwest of Melbourne. A measurement of 69 kt was taken on the north shore of Lake Okeechobee by the South Florida Water Management District at 0515 UTC. A C-MAN station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island reported 77 kt at 0000 UTC on 26 September when the center was located about 35 n mi northwest of the station. The observations indicate that a swath of hurricane force sustained winds about 90 n mi wide affected the Florida east coast from near Cape Canaveral southward to near Stuart. The highest wind gust reported from Florida was 111 kt at Fort Pierce Inlet and a 106-kt gust was reported from Vero Beach. Sustained hurricane force winds spread westward and inland about halfway across Florida and tropical storm force winds affected a large portion of the remainder of central Florida. The minimum surface pressure in Jeanne is estimated at 950 mb at the time of landfall on the Florida east coast. This is based primarily on an observation of 952.9 mb at Ft.
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